2020-03-30
SmartDrivingCars
Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19
D. Hall, Mar 25, “… The result in late March 2020 has been one where a confluence of risks has come together. Additional operational and financial risks may emerge as additional events compound on the current situation. Actuaries will be watching for any additional risk events that layer on to the current environment, especially ones that may cause additional property, mortality and health risks such as catastrophic weather events. Morbidity, mortality, asset/liability management and operational risks are all a part of the initial and evolving story. This update to the Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key continuing and new features of the pandemic all around the world and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work…” Read more Hmmmm… This is one of the best reports that I have seen and will be updated every 10 days or so. A good summary of the materials, podcasts and other good sources are here:
https://www.soa.org/resources/newsroom/covid-19-updates/#research
https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2020/impact-coronavirus/
ECDPC Daily data GitHub Covid19 data
Alain
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 149 - Matt Daus
F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, “The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also…Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!” “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 149 - Matt Daus
Video version… Watch episode 149 with Matt Daus…. Alain
Transportation Companies Can Apply for Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDLs) & Emergency EIDL Grants as part of The CARES Act!
M. Daus, Mar. 28, “As a follow-up to our reporting on the assistance available to transportation companies, the CARES Act expands eligibility for the Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDLs) administered by the Small Business Administration (SBA). The EIDLs had previously only been open to small businesses affected by COVID-19. Now, under the CARES Act, EIDLs are available to any business with not more than 500 employees, operating under a sole proprietorship or as an independent contractor, tribal businesses, cooperatives and ESOPs with fewer than 500 employees, all non-profit organizations, and individuals operating as sole proprietors or independent contractors…” Read more Hmmmm… Some of this money may actually help small transportation/mobility/logistics businesses. Hear/Watch PodCast 149 with Matt Daus. Alain
1st Step towards Autonomous Trucking & Platooning
K. Pyle, Mar. 27, "Two former Carnegie Mellon faculty members,
who happen to be brothers, discuss how they are taking a
pragmatic approach of adding automation to long-haul trucking.
Their company, Locomation, upgrades an existing big rig by
replacing the side-view mirrors with a module that includes a
mirror, lidar, radar, camera sensors, and radios.
This suite of sensors feeds a computer running their software
stack. Their system and service allow trucking companies to
field a two-truck platoon. Their initial target market is
time-sensitive, long-haul applications where trucking
companies normally employ two drivers for a single truck with
minimal stops (one sleeps while the other drives)..." [Read more](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9ZasKuD92U) Hmmmm... Also [watch Ken Pyle's interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9ZasKuD92U). Alain
Coming Tesla Autopilot Update To Include Auto-Stopping At Red Lights & Stop Signs (Leaked Video)
Z. Shahan, Mar. 27, “…Apparently, according to Out of Spec Motoring and a video its Twitter account shared, the next Tesla Autopilot update will provide one huge bridge between those two steps. It will give your car the superpower of stopping at red lights and stop signs by itself…“ Read more Hmmmm… Great, but don’t rely on it because you are still responsible!!! If it doesn’t work and you run a red and get T-boned, then it’s your life that you lose! What is great is: if you are clueless, it may keep you from inadvertently running a red,… not getting T-boned and not losing your life. :-) See video Alain
Exor Makes $200 Million Investment in Ride-Share Company Via
C. Lombardo, Mar 30, “Exor NV, the holding company of Italy’s Agnelli family, is investing in ride-share company Via Transportation Inc. that would mark its first big foray into the technology sector.
Exor said Monday it is investing $200 million in New
York-based Via. The investment would give Exor just under a
9% stake in Via and would value Via at $2.25 billion. Via
had last been valued at roughly $1 billion in late 2017,
according to Pitchbook...." [Read more](https://www.wsj.com/articles/exor-nears-200-million-investment-in-ride-share-company-via-11585582200)Hmmmm... This is really good news, maybe the only
good news, in the ride-sharing space given the
physical distancing mandate. There may still behope
for ride-sharing once we get through all of this
physical distancing. Alain
GM Planning to Put Super Cruise on at Least 22 More Models
P. Eisenstein, Mar. 29, “…Super Cruise launched in 2017 on the Cadillac CT6. While that big sedan is going away, GM has plans to add the hands-free system to Caddy’s CT4 and CT5 sedans, as well as the totally redone Escalade SUV for the 2021 model year. In 2022, it will be offered for the first time through other GM brands, starting with the Chevrolet Bolt EV, Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra. The big blitz comes in 2023 when it will roll out on 22 models, with more likely to follow, company officials have confirmed….
About 30 percent of Caddy CT6 buyers have shelled out the $2,500 for the option. Meanwhile, 85 percent of those who have the system say they would prefer or only buy a vehicle with Super Cruise in the future.
GM recently increased the number of miles Super Cruise can
operate on from 130,000 to 200,000. This coming year,
meanwhile, it will gain the ability to change lanes simply
by tapping the turn signal. And new products will add a
rear-facing radar sensor to ensure the vehicle doesn't pull
out in front of fast-approaching traffic.... " [Read more](https://ride.tech/self-driving/gm-planning-to-put-super-cruise-on-at-least-22-more-models/)Hmmmm... Since SuperCruise sells cars and provides
up-sell revenue, why isn't it being put in GM cars
earlier. Tesla wouldn't wait around until 2023! Note
GM is putting SuperCruise in Bolt even earlier because
every day autoPilot sells Model 3s. Alain
New Rules Could Finally Clear the Way for Self-Driving Cars
A. Marshall, Mar. 26, “…The adjusted standards would nix some rules related to rider safety for autonomous vehicles that carry goods like groceries, but no people. They would address the protections needed when steering wheels and steering columns have gone the way of the dodo. They would reexamine how airbags might work in a car newly configured to drive itself, and consider barring children from the front left seat of a vehicle, where the steering wheel traditionally lives.
The rules would also clarify the definition of "driver,"
which the agency has now decided it will not change within
the standards. Instead, it will clarify within each mention
whether "driver" refers to a fleshy human, or the advanced
driver systems that might one day operate cars all on their
own. This is a reversal for the safety agency, which said in
2016 that it would legally redefine "driver" to treat the
Google self-driving system one..." [Read more](https://www.wired.com/story/news-rules-clear-way-self-driving-cars/) Hmmmm... Now is
probably the right time to do this. We have to get
something moving forward. Asking NHTSA for exemptions
has been a rabbit hole. It has granted a total of
one. Alain
Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai makes 3,000 cars per week amid other factory shutdowns
F. Lambert, Mar. 27, “Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai is reportedly making 3,000 electric cars per week amid Tesla having to shut down its other factories.
As of Monday, Tesla was forced to shut down production at Fremont factory in California, where the automaker has produced almost all its vehicles for the past decade…
The automaker had a production capacity of about 2,000 vehicles per week prior to the shutdown. Now a new report from 乌瓦, a Youtuber who has been tracking progress at the factory through drone videos and interviews with employees and locals, states that Tesla is now capable of producing 3,000 cars per week at the plant:…“ Read more Hmmmm… Very interesting. Is this a prelude to the losing of even more American jobs? Alain
2020 Detroit Auto Show canceled as venue becomes a field hospital
J. Fingas, Mar.29, “Yet another major 2020 auto show has been cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, although now it’s less about timing and more about supporting the current fight. Organizers have canceled the Detroit Auto Show (officially the North American International Auto Show) as its venue, the TCF Center, is being turned into a field hospital for coronavirus patients. The next show now won’t take place until June 2021, or over two and a half years after the last event….” Read more Hmmmm… Certainly not a surprise. Alain
Roman""> [Draft](https://www.dropbox.com/s/p7t7fwkm1wu9n3g/ProgramDraft1_4thAnnualPrincetonSDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0)Princeton
SmartDrivingCar
Summit
Postponed
until Evening Oct. 20 through Oct. 22, 2020 A. Kornhauser, Feb 6, "The focus of the
Summit this year will be moving beyond the AI and the
Sensors to addressing the challenges of Commercialization
and the delivery of tangible value to communities. We've
made enormous progress with the technology. We're doing the
investment; however, this investment delivers value only if
is commercialized: made available and is used by consumers
in large numbers. Demos and one-offs are "great", but to
deliver value that is anywhere near commensurate with the
magnitude of the investment made to date, initial
deployments need to scale. We can't just have "Morgantown
PRT Systems" whose initial deployment has been nothing but
enormously successful for 45 years (an essentially perfect
safety record, an excellent availability record and customer
valued mobility). Unfortunately, the system was never
expanded or duplicated anywhere. It didn't scale. It is a
one-off.
Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale. In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va. which became the reference for many other cites. “… By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague’s equipment had been begun or planned on several continents…” Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology. It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.
In part, the 4th Summit will focus on defining the "Richmond"
of Affordable Shared-ride On-demand Mobility-as-a-Service.
The initial Operational Design Domain (ODD) that safely
accommodates Driverless Mobility Machines that people actually
choose to use and becomes the envy of communities throughout
Read more
Hmmmm... [Draft Program](https://www.dropbox.com/s/p7t7fwkm1wu9n3g/ProgramDraft1_4thAnnualPrincetonSDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0) is in flux. Consider all named
individuals as "Invited yet to be confirmed". Alain
C’mon Man!(These folks didn’t get/read the memo)
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Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Will this crisis help set autonomous AI on the right course?
B. Huang, Mar. 26, “he COVID-19 pandemic accelerates an automated future that’s already on its way. It serves as a wake-up call to all AI, robotics, and driverless car startups: stop building eye-dazzling demos and talking about the future possibility of general-use AI. Instead, focus on deploying real-world solutions that can run 24 hours a day with minimum human intervention and deliver true value to users.
Thousands of Americans have started to work from home amidst
the current pandemic. Retailers have struggled with supply
while nervous consumers are hoarding everything from toilet
paper to hand soap. Across the globe, Chinese e-commerce giant
JD began testing a level 4 autonomous delivery robot in Wuhan
and running its automated warehouses 24 hours a day to cope
with a surge in demand.
Suddenly, autonomous machines need to be better than just proof of concept. They must be robust enough to work independently across various real-life situations….” Read more Hmmmm…I don’t buy it, nor the three areas. Today we have no AI, it is really largely hype. Data quality is key to everything, be they human intelligence or the artificial variety. The pathetic quality of the data about what is happening today dominates what this crisis is telling us about the necessities of data quality. We didn’t learn it in 2016 when the bad data led to forecasts that Hillary’sprobability of winning was > 0.99. The misuses and unknown biases, not just the noise, led to that “AI” debacle. The same is even more true today. Alain
Click-Bait
Calendar of Upcoming
Events:
until Evening Oct. 20 -> Oct 22.
SmartDrivingCar Summit
Princeton University Princeton, NJ
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
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Recent Podcasts
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop
F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, “The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also…Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!” “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop Video version… Watch our first attempt…. Alain
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Mar. 14, “From Sweden…The Dispatcher editor Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin as Covid-19 takes a toll on Waymo, Uber and more. Plus Saving the Car Industries in the U.S. and the EU… the latest from Future Networked Car 2020 in Geneva and more.” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 146
F. Fishkin, Mar. 14, “Will the Coronavirus speed the move to driverless mobility? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin tackle that plus the latest on Waymo, Tesla, new IIHS safety tech recommendations and more in this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Tune in and subscribe!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 145 - L. Walker
F. Fishkin, Mar. 5, “Tackling the issues of children in autonomous vehicles, Lorrie Walker of Safe Kids Worldwide joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest from Waymo, Tesla, GM, Uber, Lyft and more.” “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 144 - L. Shinohara
F. Fishkin, Feb 27, “How a new generation of affordable LiDAR can make autonomous vehicles smarter and safer. RoboSense VP Leilei Shinohara joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus..the Tesla investigations, California’s latest autonomous reporting, Waymo, Michigan’s initiative and more.” “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 143 - T. Bolat
F. Fishkin, Feb 20, “Declining roadway deaths and injuries may have something to do with safe vehicle technology says Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser. And new tech from companies like WaveSense mean it is just getting started. Join Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and WaveSense CEO Tarik Bolat for that plus the latest on Tesla, Subaru, Jaguar Land Rover and more.
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes
F. Fishkin, Feb 15, “What shifting populations mean for the future of mobility and transportation. Leading expert Jim Hughes of Rutgers University joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Tesla, GM, Comma AI’s inexpensive autopilot, Aptiv, Lyft and more. Tune in and subscribe! “
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy
F. Fishkin, Feb 7, “The latest glossary of BS in mobility, self driving and autonomy from author, podcaster and cannonball driver Alex Roy on Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the news from Tesla, Nuro, Waymo, GM and more! “ Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 140 - C. Mericli
F. Fishkin, Jan 31, “How self driving tech can increase profits in the trucking industry. Locomation’s CEO joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Waymo’s partnership with UPS, Tesla’s rocket ride, Hyundai’s Smart Park Super Bowl ad and more. “ Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O’Toole
F. Fishkin, Jan 25, “Adaptive cruise control and self driving tech may lead to more urban sprawl. But the Cato Institute’s Randal O’Toole says maybe that isn’t a bad thing. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Subaru’s tech, GM’s Cruise, Tesla and more on the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This edition is sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information…head to www.motoetf.com “
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart
F. Fishkin, Jan 18, “The new mobility on the ground and in the air. Nicolas Zart joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for a discussion on Urban Air Mobility…plus..Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Mobileye, Waymo and more in this edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast.” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136
F. Fishkin, Jan 6, “He’s back! Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser…still on the mend …but opinionated as ever…joins co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the latest from Waymo, Tesla and more in Episode 136 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. “ Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson
F. Fishkin, Dec 5, “In this special edition… the launch of a new exchange traded fund focused on smart transportation and technology. Guinness Atkinson Asset Management CEO Jim Atkinson joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus..a push by the Coalition for Future Mobility for action in Washington, AutoX wants driverless testing in California and Aptiv grows in Pittsburgh. “
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 134 - With Stephanie Lemcke GoKid
F. Fishkin, Nov.30, “The critical need for ridesharing, another milestone for Waymo, Mobileye in Michigan and sleeping in Teslas. In this edition of Smart Driving Cars GoKid app founder Stefanie Lemcke joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those topics and more. Tune in and subscribe!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 133
F. Fishkin, Nov.23, “Florida’s Autonomous Vehicle Summit shows what a state can do to create a welcoming atmosphere. That, plus, Tesla’s Cybertruck, Ford, Waymo and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin..” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Nov. 1, “An updated outlook for automated vehicles…Tesla, Waymo , Ford, VW and more. Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by guests Michael Sena and Dick Mudge in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 126 - Sturges & Caudill F. Fishkin, Sept 19 , “From the public library in Princeton, NJ… a special edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast following a public forum conducted by Princeton Future on the potential for transit on demand for all. Join Princeton professor Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and special guests for that…plus…the latest on Waymo, Tesla, Hyundai, Aptiv and more. “ Pictures from the Princeton Future Public Forum on Driverless Mobility for All. Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 123 - K. Kolodge JD Power F. Fishkin, Aug 30 , “A J. D. Power study finds customer demand for safety technology threatened by overbearing alerts. Lead researcher Kristin Kolodge joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus headlines from Tesla, NVIDIA, GM’s Cruise, Lyft and Ford. “ Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 121 - Ken Pyle F. Fishkin, Aug 22 , “Daimler and Bosch hold a community meeting in San Jose as they ready plans for autonomous vehicle testing. Community board member Ken Pyle joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus…Waymo, Tesla and more.” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 118 - Michael Sena’69 F. Fishkin, Aug 1, “Congress seeks help with self driving legislation, an acquisition by Ford, a breakthrough in vehicle data sharing in Europe and more! The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in a new edition of Smart Driving Cars.” Just say “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 116 - Jerome Lutin F. Fishkin, July 20, “Can technology dramatically improve the safety of bus transportation for pedestrians, riders and drivers? The lead investigator in a national study, Jerry Lutin, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on episode 116 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Plus…Tesla’s new safety report, the latest from Lyft, Aptiv and a NY Times report on why driverless cars are taking longer than expected. Tune in and subscribe!.”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM F. Fishkin, June 9, “Should the insurance industry be pushing more safety and autonomous tech in cars? It’s a win, win says Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser. Joining him in the discussion along with co-host Fred Fishkin is NJM’s John Hardiman, a board member of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Also…Fiat Chrysler, Ford and more.”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot F. Fishkin, May 25, “ The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus…Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup
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F. Fishkin, May 18, “Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It’s just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!”
F. Fishkin, May 18, “In this special edition from the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit, Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by RoboSense VP Leilei Shinohara on the LiDAR’s benefits. And view of autonomous technology from law enforcement with New York State Police
Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell." [Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-106)
F. Fishkin, May 18, “From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, David Kidd from the Highway Loss Data Institute joins Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin and then on site preliminary research results on mobility for all with Cecilia Feeley and Andrea Lubin from Rutgers.”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund
F. Fishkin, May 18,, “From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit’s focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund.”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 100 - Andrei Greenawalt’99/Via
April 5, F. Fishkin, “The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 98- Matt Daus
April 5, F. Fishkin, “Here comes congestion pricing in New York City…but what will it mean? Former city Taxi and Limousine Commission head and transportation expert Matthew Daus joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Also…Tesla, VW and even Brexit! All on Episode 98 of Smart Driving Cars.”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena’69
March 28, F. Fishkin, “The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus …the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe.”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 82 -Intel, Sciarappo & Jitsik, Loeb
F. Fishkin, Jan. 9, “One of the top chip makers in the world and a start up. Intel’s strategic marketing director for autonomous driving Jill Sciarappo and the founder of Jitsik, Dr. Helen Loeb join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for Episode 82 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast from CES.” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 81 -nVIDIA, Shapiro & Local Motors / Olli, Hodge
F. Fishkin, Jan. 9, “How NVIDIA is paving the way for self driving cars and a new OLLI automated transport from Local Motors. NVIDIA’s Senior Director for Automotive, Danny Shapiro and Kurtis Hodge of Local Motors join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for another edition of Smart Driving Cars from CES 2019..”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 75 - PAVE; Nantel, Erlich, Riccobono
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F. Fishkin, Jan. 9, “From CES in Las Vegas, a new industry organization, PAVE, is formed. Partners for Automated Vehicle Education. And some founding members join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for an on site discussion. Guests include National Safety Council VP Kelly Nantel, Voyage VP Justin Erlich and National Federation of the Blind President Mark Riccobono.” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader’55 F. Fishkin, Dec. 13, “When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says “Not so fast.” The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui F. Fishkin, Nov 29, “What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus…Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! “
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 68 - Dick Mudge F. Fishkin, Nov 22, “The insurance industry hears about the outlook for automated vehicles. Co-author Dick Mudge joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 68 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus…Uber, GM Cruise, Waymo, VW and more. Tune in and subscribe!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 66 - Bishop & Zimmerman
F. Fishkin, Nov 8, “Daimler is partnering with Bosch to bring an autonomous ride hailing service to San Jose next year. In this edition, the Director of Engineering at Bosch joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to outline how it will work. Plus Richard Bishop joins us fresh from an International Task Force on Vehicle Highway Automation in Denmark. And more!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV
F. Fishkin, Nov 1, “California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state’s deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles
F. Fishkin, Sept 22 “In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety…and a champion racer. Beyond that….he’s an old high school friend of Alain’s! And there’s more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, “The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book “Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World”
Recent Highlights of:
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Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead?
R. Bishop, Mar 24, “I met Stefan Seltz-Axmacher for the first time in November 2015 at the Florida Automated Vehicles Summit. Not long after, we met at the Blue Danube coffee shop in Alameda, CA so he could tell me about his vision for Starsky Robotics. When he energetically described his remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. “Remote driving is hard,” I said. “The military has struggled with this for years. Its harder than it looks.” On the technical side, latency for secure communications is challenging. On the operational side, re-creating enough on-road reality (situational awareness) for a remote driver is difficult when going for the high levels of safety needed. Seltz-Axmacher remained bullish on the approach and at that time went on to found Starsky Robotics as one of the earliest truck AV startups, later closing a $16.5M Series A funding round in March 2018, and then hauling freight while developing both remote and automated driving ability. Initially, Starsky’s concept was all about remote driving for first/last mile. They later expanded their offering to include fully automated highway driving on limited freight corridors.
Now, Starsky has become
the first casualty
within a crowded truck
automation space, and
Seltz-Axmacher has
provided us with an
intriguing post-mortem
in a recent Medium
post. Most of the media
coverage I've seen has
acted as echo chambers
for Seltz-Axmacher's
perspective. Here I
offer a counterpoint
based on my longtime
involvement in truck
automation plus
discussions with many
others in the truck
Automated Driving
Systems (ADS) startup
space, many of them
irate at what they see
as unfounded assertions
made in the original
post. My sources tell me
that because
Seltz-Axmacher hasn't
experienced their
technology nor been
briefed on their
technical/safety
approach, he has no
basis to make sweeping
claims about the entire
industry...." [Read more](https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardbishop1/2020/03/24/starsky-robotics-failed-does-that-mean-automated-trucking-is-dead/#51d50d840c84)
Hmmmm... [Listen to PodCast 148](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-148).
or/and [Watch us on YouTube](https://youtu.be/VkzPm5GwEz4).
Alain
Waymo suspends robotaxi service except for its truly driverless vehicles K. Korosec, Mar. 17, “Waymo said Tuesday it is pausing operations of Waymo One, a service in the Phoenix area that allows the public to hail rides in self-driving vehicles with trained human safety operators behind the wheel, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Waymo is also halting testing on public roads in California.
However, Waymo will keep
some operations up and
running, notably its truly
driverless vehicles, which
don't require a human safety
driver, according to an
announcement on its website
Tuesday. These driverless
vehicles are used in the
Phoenix area as part of
Waymo's early rider program
that lets vetted members of
the public hail a ride..."
[Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/waymo-suspends-robotaxi-service-except-for-its-truly-driverless-vehicles/)
Yippie!!!
Unfortunately, the
latest is not so
good... [Waymo has suspended all services, including the driverless.](https://waymo.com/coronavirus)
Poopie!!! Alain
A. Hawkins, Mar. 13,
"Waymo,Waymo, the self-driving
unit of Alphabet, says it will
keep operating its fleet of
roughly 600 self-driving taxis
in Arizona during the novel
coronavirus outbreak. But the
safety drivers who monitor the
autonomous taxis are concerned
that they are being put in
harm's way.
Waymo is "strongly
encouraging" its full-time
employees without "business
critical" tasks to work from
home. Its safety drivers, who
are employed by a French
transit company called
Transdev North America that
has a multiyear contract with
Waymo, are still mostly
required to come into work,
The Verge has learned.
Transdev appears to be
following guidelines set by
the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC)
by stepping up the frequency
of its cleanings and
disinfections. But drivers
tell The Verge that the Waymo
vendor is ignoring
recommendations about social
distancing.
"It feels like the drivers are
treated like second class
citizens, having to report to
work and serve 'hails' while
the full-time employees are
required to work from home to
stay safe," said a Waymo
driver who requested anonymity
in order to speak freely.
"Safety for some."..." [Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/13/21178375/waymo-self-driving-car-coronavirus-covid19-intel-arizona)
Hmmmm... I thought that
Waymo had started
offering rides without
safety drivers in
Chandler???? I guess,
they do it in a
"smaller" Operational
Design Domain (ODD) and
they are trying to
expand that ODD by
operating with safety
drivers for trip
originating and or
terminating outside that
original "smaller" ODD.
Anyway… I often use the elevator to try to understand autonomousTaxis… driverless mobility machines. Will we look back to this complaint by attendants as the turning point which hasten Waymo’s operation of its vehicles without attendants on-board much as the elevator operator’s strike in NYC in September 1945 hasten the deployment of automated elevators (see Pushing the right Buttons)? As I’ve been writing, the biggest challenge of Uber/Lyft is management of its drivers. It looks like Waymo is experiencing the same challenges with its attendants. Moreover, a NECESSARY condition on economic viability is safely operating without a driver/attendant. We may look back and credit COVID-19 as hastening Waymo’s deployment of driverless mobility for all. This may be COVID-19’s only positive contribution to society. Alain
March 6, 2020
Call to Action on Children in Autonomous Vehicles Feb. 2020, “The Blue Ribbon Panel on Children in Autonomous Vehicles is calling on developers of autonomous vehicles (AVs) to ensure that AVs are engineered, deployed and marketed to protect the unique needs of child passengers. Developers are broadly defined to include original equipment manufacturers, non-original equipment manufacturers, as well as designers of component systems such as LIDAR, chip or satellite manufacturers, and others building key components of AVs.
AVs must be developed,
regulations upgraded and laws
passed to ensure children will
be properly restrained, have the
highest level of protection in a
crash, and can be appropriately
supervised during a trip. This
panel believes it is imperative
that minor children never be
transported without appropriate
supervision by a parent,
guardian or caregiver until best
practices are adopted.
We're asking developers to
commit to the following actions:
... " [Read more](https://www.safekids.org/kids-autonomous-vehicles/blue-ribbon-panel/call-to-action) Hmmmm...
Given that one of the
largest mobility
marginalized groups are
individuals that are too
young to drive, including
the very young that
require supervision as
well as those that are old
enough to ride alone, this
focus group is very
important and very
pertinent. Alain
February 28, 2020
[NTSB slams Tesla, Apple and regulators over a fatal Autopilot crash](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-02-25/tesla-autopilot-crash-hearing)
R. Mitchell, Feb. 25, “The nation’s top safety investigator slammed Tesla on Tuesday for failing to take adequate measures to prevent “foreseeable abuse” of its Autopilot driver-assistance technology, in a hearing into the fatal 2018 crash of a Tesla Model X SUV in Mountain View, Calif.
The National Transportation Safety
Board said 38-year-old Walter
Huang, an Apple software engineer,
had Autopilot engaged in his 2018
Tesla Model X and was playing a
video game on his iPhone when the
car crashed into a defective
safety barrier on U.S. Highway
101.The board also blamed the
highway safety arm of the U.S.
Department of Transportation for
failing to properly regulate
rapidly evolving robot-car
technology.... The board adopted[a long list of measures](https://t.co/mEFsCDf1dB)
meant to reduce such accidents as
"partially automated driving"
technologies become more popular
in new vehicles.... Sumwalt made clear
the Mountain View crash was not an
isolated incident, but
illustrative of the safety issues
involved as humans and robot
systems increasingly share the
driving, not just in Teslas but in
vehicles from all manufacturers.
"It's time to stop enabling
drivers in any partially automated
vehicle to pretend that they have
driverless cars," he said.
……. the Model X drove straight down the middle of a “gore lane,” a white-striped zone where cars aren’t supposed to go,” … It is clear from the images that the gore area was NOT white-striped as is supposed to be and the lane markings are badly worn. Why didn’t NTSB fault the CA DoT for its poor maintenance and marking practices. CA DoT needs to be severely reprimanded. “ … a Toyota Prius crashed into it 11 days earlier…” to what extent did NTSB investigate the Prius crash. It didn’t have autoPilot, so that’s not the common factor. I suspect that the confusing lane markings and the lack of striping is the root cause… “ … The car’s collision avoidance system did not detect the crash barrier.” … I suspect that this is NOT true. The system detected the stationary object, but the coded logic disregards stationary objects (classifies them as false alarms) because false positives are too likely. NTSB made a similar error in the Joshua Brown crash where the system didn’t mis-identify the stationary trailer ahead as being background sky, but instead classified the stationary object in the lane ahead as a false positive . NTSB investigators have failed to ask the right questions in these investigations…
" ....The car's
forward collision warning system
did not provide an alert, and the
automatic braking system did not
activate."...
Again, the
system
classified
stationary
objects in the
lane ahead as
phantom
objects and
disregards
them. Once
disregarded,
there is no
reason to
initiate a
warning or
apply
Emergency
Brakes.
Yipes!
[Read more](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-02-25/tesla-autopilot-crash-hearing) Hmmmm...
Hopefully this will curtail
the misbehavior in the use
of these systems. The
Self-driving systems require
constant adult supervision.
I suspect that NHTSA will
place extraordinarily
onerous regulations on
personally owned
self-driving cars that will
effectively ban the ability
to sleep, play video games,
text or otherwise be
non-vigilant in all
non-driverless vehicles.
Driverless vehicles will be
required to be operated and
maintained by a responsible
fleet manager and not have
any straight forward way for
a human to drive them.
Certainly no steering wheel
or pedals. I expect that
they'll also ban the use of
Stupid-Summon-like systems
outside of one's own
personal property. They
should. Alain
[Motor Vehicle Deaths are Estimated to Have Dropped 2% in 2019](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/motor-vehicle-deaths-are-estimated-to-have-dropped-2-in-2019-301008098.html) Press release, Feb.
20, "For the second consecutive
year, the U.S. experienced a small
decline in roadway deaths, according
to [preliminary estimates](https://safety.nsc.org/e2t/c/*W3_42pH2MrdRSW60G5Ww6GvRdt0/*W3m7blF547KJxW5bPDh87GJMCN0/5/f18dQhb0S1Xm7z_WxDW11fGSc2T8mh_VW1SSv4ZqHrZW3j0l_b9b0wDsW5TcdgP5xKJ43W8Bn4tK26S4R_W92FXNL2tmw2jW6RGnV568jlPCW2YM0gf2sDKY2VVhYBy97_4kWW3S3sX645rBmxW2RMN5r2Th19sN2Ny8gj_kx57W5hlYz-1r-PGcN65WRPsjXP5tN6RCws2yG41HN8MksNn4315RF5z9pNCfQ_hVHy3g22LMwpRW492Xh845-Yw2W7BLjwg4K-FMkN2dxM0WWwdtLN13JDDkYLVLFW4tDXXd5xnYd7W2FLBKF8MLg0dW62mMRP41cCLJW6d-Rdc905KrXW3-S9th3FtH5-W1mTSHN6h52SBW5rJq-B4TgKF2W7Kvmrc2Psf1JW55YFMN1qJXcMW4btqr029MNlXW94x-G19kpRxgW5QFLl37pMJF7W1y7Twm2F8LQvW7LRLKj3G7Jg4W34Ph721xG6l5W7H6bjr7rRGQfW6Tk2Cp4x7TxWW4DC0943lD8jHW2h2qGh33kJNWW6plrJp44YYhnf2ZRHfF04) released today from
the National Safety Council. In
2019, an estimated [38,800](https://safety.nsc.org/e2t/c/*W3_42pH2MrdRSW60G5Ww6GvRdt0/*W22-0Qb4MT7GqW1ZYf8J79npMT0/5/f18dQhb0Sjv68YsVGZW8cKyzt50RnyCVqtj0Q1hc7ytW1FSlV556qZCNVcnTGj992gLmW4tGlcr4vFpLQW97QKwL1xl7g9W3TtNn197pn0BW1lwcCB6NJQs9N6twNwtL1MrQW1Kk6vD1DnvQRW1L4LKy1MkvB3W2KDbdJ1v14y7N2Swjxk6_1JxW64jzh47-pghsW8Xl1bl8W1L-pN7Szqd7MMQxXW80gSRf97rB1bW8xqNs01rWjcqW8sZ69m8nh4QbW60xW6F2Chw4cW3PfRFL95ws4bW4t9wXv38-3rBW4Xltdf946LWvW1msmCB4RDYGlW6NZBns1l41kdVTH68Z60P02zW2ByJj96LlFYDVM00-d7hSCP1W65jsB062B31CW7vwQ_c994CZpMPs031gkKmyW5qf9yT3B-8_MW3sVcCS2-CTt-W3VKw6T3shCb5V10N9F5xftzbW3NZ12K8Jjc62W1QYXYD4rmm0tW4t50Vh5NhLr1N4w86dHLG01PDrTzpYXyhkf43JgLK03)
people lost their lives to
car crashes – a 2% decline from 2018
(39,404 deaths) and a 4% decline
from 2017 (40,231 deaths).
Approximately 4.4 million people
were seriously injured[i]
in crashes last year – also a 2%
decrease over 2018 figures...
Research to definitively determine why fatalities have decreased for the last two years is likely to lag several years. However, the NSC preliminary estimate signals that the country may be experiencing the benefits of several risk mitigation actions implemented in the last few years…
And today, the majority of newly manufactured vehicles include advanced driver assistance systems such as automatic emergency braking, lane departure warning systems, backup cameras and adaptive headlights, all of which are proven to reduce the severity of crashes or prevent them altogether….” Read more Hmmmm… Safe-driving cars may well be beginning to deliver real societal benefits. And , once the OEMs get AEBs to really work, even more lives may be saved. And, this has come about by the public sector spending almost no money and Washington staying out of it.
Safe-driving cars that have automated features that keep us from misbehaving when we drive is the way to improved safety. If we want to also capture the societal benefits of improved mobility, then we have the automated features replace the driver. We will likely pay a slight safety penalty by completely replacing the driver, but that replacement is necessary in order for us to capture the affordability and scalability necessary to attain substantive societal benefits. Alain
February 15, 2020
“Urbs,” “Burbs,” and the Immigration Locomotive
J. Hughes, Feb 2020, “Even more so than the nation, the broad fourstate, 35-county metropolitan region centered on New York City (figure 1) is becoming afflicted by a condition of demographic stagnation. While the United States has been experiencing the lowest population growth rates since the Great Depression, the region has only recently (2016–2018) slipped into absolute population decline, spawned by domestic outmigration. The major counterforce forestalling a demographic catastrophe has been positive international migration. Immigration has become the primary source of population growth—the demographic locomotive. Without it, the region would have to bear fully the economic consequences of what has become a virtual domestic population hemorrhage—a vast exodus of regional residents moving to the rest of the country. This is just one dimension of endemic demographic change that has swept the post–Great Recession world….
The second new reset is a turnaround of the pattern evidenced in the 2010–2016 period, when population growth in the “urbs” surpassed that of the “burbs.” After dominating growth early in the decade (2010–2016), the core—the urban heart of the metropolitan region encompassing New York City and three adjacent counties in New Jersey—suddenly slipped into decline post-2016, causing the region as a whole to lose population. This is the latest transformation in what has become a transmillennial demographic roller coaster ride… “ Read more Hmmmm… Most interesting Demographic Dynamic. A must read. Alain
February 7, 2020
NHTSA Grants Nuro Exemption Petition for Testing Low-Speed Driverless Vehicle Press release, Feb 6, “NHTSA announced today that it granted Nuro’s request for a temporary exemption from certain low-speed vehicle standard requirements. The exemption will allow the company to deploy its low-speed, occupantless electric delivery vehicle, the “R2.” Unlike a conventional low-speed vehicle, the R2 is designed to have no human occupant and operates exclusively using an automated driving system.
"Since this is a low-speed
self-driving delivery vehicle, certain
features that the Department
traditionally required – such as
mirrors and a windshield for vehicles
carrying drivers – no longer make
sense," said U.S. Secretary of
Transportation Elaine L. Chao... " [Read more](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nuro-exemption-low-speed-driverless-vehicle)Hmmmm... this
is: [One small step](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Small_Step). The bigger
one will be for the GM/Cruise
vehicle. Be sure to read the [Supplemental Information](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/nuro_grant_notice_final-unofficial.pdf). Details
matter. Alain
January 31, 2020
2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about ‘Smaht Pahk’ S. Szymkowski, Jan 27, “Hyundai is going all in on Boston accents and the 2020 Sonata for its Super Bowl advertisement. As is often the trend these days, the ad made its debut on Monday less than a week before the big game, but it’s quite a clever spot….” Read more Hmmmm… This is as irresponsible of Hyundai as StupidSummon is for Tesla. It may even be more irresponsible because Hyundai hasn’t included the over-the-air-information system that allows them to monitor its use. Having the car do stuff without an alert and attentive driver in the driver’s seat implies liability on them (their system) if something bad happens. Plus, squeezing a car into a parking place when the people can’t get into the adjacent cars is not the smartest move unless you’ve also made the Hyundai key proof. There will be retaliation. Alain
The Disengagement Myth Kyle Vogt, Jan 17, “In a few weeks the California DMV will release disengagements data from Cruise and other companies who test AVs on public roads. This data is really great for giving the public a sense of what’s happening on the roads. Unfortunately, it has also been used by the media and others to compare technology from different AV companies or as a proxy for commercial readiness. Since it’s the only publicly available metric, I don’t really blame them for using it. But it’s woefully inadequate for most uses beyond those of the DMV. The idea that disengagements give a meaningful signal about whether an AV is ready for commercial deployment is a myth. …“ Read more Hmmmm… Amen! This is a MUST read. As with everything, details matter. It is true that figures don’t lie, but but it is easy to game systems such that figures, without the underlying details, do lie. As Kyle points out, there are important details associated with disengagements. These need to be well understood for disengagements to be a proxy for safety and market readiness. The when, where and associated details of each disengagement is critically important if the objective is safety and market readiness.
What is also most important here is the underlying objective of the companies doing the tests and reporting the data. As has happened in our secondary education where students are taught what is in and how to take the SATs rather than just learn. The objective is not learning , but getting 800s on the SATs so that they can get into ‘Princeton’. This is perpetuated by the ‘Princetons’ of this world that don’t look into the details of the student’s academic qualities and capabilities. In the academic world, we know these students as ‘box checkers’, gamers of the college admission process. The gaming is continued by the ‘banks and med schools’ that use simplistic GPA (Grade Point Average, aka ‘disengagements’) cutoffs. The ‘box checkers’ then take ‘underwater basket weaving’ courses and become grade grubbers. It is lazy and irresponsible to use simplistic measures as proxies to very complex concepts such as intelligence, creativity, compatibility, and all the other details that make a good student, a good employee, a good citizen, a good mobility system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to “make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear” or “putting lipstick on the pig”. It is easy to game the metric ‘Disengagements’ by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don’t know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM’s lawyers and GM’s board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? Alain
Intel’s Mobileye has a plan to dominate self-driving—and it might work
T. Lee, Jan. 10, “…In a Tuesday speech at the Consumer Electronics show, Mobileye CEO Amnon Shashua made clear just how big of a strategic advantage this is. He laid out Mobileye’s vision for the evolution of self-driving technology over the next five years. And he made it clear that he envisions Mobileye staying at the center of the industry…
In his Tuesday speech, Mobileye’s Shashua calls ADAS systems with high-definition maps, like Super Cruise, “Level 2+”—a small step above regular ADAS systems that are called “level 2” in the five-level SAE framework. A number of carmakers have developed similar systems. Shashua says Mobileye is supplying the technology for 70 percent of them, including systems from Nissan, Volkswagen, and BMW…” Read moreHmmmm… This is all about Self-driving just like Tesla’s AutoPilot. It is not Driverless.
A lot is made about HD maps that I simply don’t appreciate. “… The company uses all this data to generate detailed, high-definition maps of the areas where the cars drive…“ HD maps don’t have any info on the other cars, pedestrians and … that are moving around you when you drive. Nor do they have the “stopped firetrucks” in your lane ahead. Call these thing “half” of the things that you don’t want to hit while driving down the road. You and I need something (cameras, radars) to sense these in real time as we move down the road. These things need to “see” everything around you (especially in front of you), which likely include the things that are NOT in the HD maps. Moreover, by sensing them relative to “my nose”, I only need “10 cm” accuracy, especially when I do this in real time 20 to 30 a second.
Also, I don’t really need to know where I am. I only care about objects relative to where I am. (Since I only care about my position relative to the static map data, I need to take the difference between my position and the position of the objects in the map data. The accuracy of that difference in those two values (my location and the object’s location in the map data) is the inferior accuracy of those two values. Good luck at independently knowing to centimeter accuracy your position every 20th or 30th of a second. So “centimeter’ accuracy in the HD data is totally useless and need not be any more accurate than your independent positional accuracy. What is easier and better is to simply directly measure the relative positions (and velocities and accelerations and…) of everything every/many time steps in (near) real-time and disregard any of the “precision” in the map data that isn’t complete and latent.
So, please, explain to me why I need super accurate info about the stationary things. Seems like an enormous amount of overhead to carry around when it is still p to the real-time sensing system to spot the stopped firetruck in the lane ahead. (Also, most folks, if they pay attention and behave, they drive very safely without HD maps and just Rand-McNally fold out maps.)
Also, can you imagine how useless much of the real-time image data are (data is plural). Everything that is moving in each frame is unique, never to happen precisely again. All of that needs to be purged. Also all of the non-“permanent” stuff like parked cars and “stopped firetrucks”. One thing that our brains do very well is to forget, (especially those ofSteelers fans). In addition to “Optimal Learning” algorithms, we need some “Optimal Forgetting” algorithms. Alain
###
Hmmmm…
Reflections
A. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm… Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I’m about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don’t sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the ‘chrome and fins’ that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only ‘Waymo-style Driverless’ (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
January 6, 2020
Back
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm… I’m in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I’m looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don’t feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
The Fate of Self-Driving Cars Hangs on a $7 Trillion Design Problem
M. Wilson, Dec. 5, “…. Waymo One service goes live today to the public, and as its service ramps up in the coming weeks, it will allow anyone in the Phoenix area to book a robot taxi for the first time. The news should be either terrifying or terribly exciting. Instead, the transportation revolution starts, not with a gasp, but a yawn.” Read more Hmmmm… Seems like it has be a yawn. I haven’t missed anything. Fantastic. Alain
November 30, 2019 [Chandler unveils drop-off, pick-up zone for self-driving cars](https://ktar.com/story/2852028/chandler-unveils-drop-off-pick-up-zone-for-self-driving-cars/) G. Zetino, Nov. 25, ""It's about to
get easier for self-driving cars to drop off and
pick up passengers in Chandler. The city of
Chandler, in partnership with Waymo, on Friday
unveiled the nation's first drop-off and pick-up
zone for autonomous ride-hailing cars.
Read more Hmmmm… The iconic image:
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system’s Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can’t or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
November 23, 2019 [Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article237625484.html) R. Wile, Nov 22, "Sen. Jeff Brandes
(R-St. Petersburg) had just finished serving in the
Army, and was looking to make a name for himself in
Tallahassee as a junior representative. He came
across a talk given by the founder of Google's
driverless car project.
He quickly realized the potential of self-driving
cars to transform many aspects of daily life. Ever
since, he has made it his mission to turn Florida
into what he calls "an angel investor" in automation
policy. "We want to have policies in place for this
technology to flourish," Brandes said in an
interview at the 7th Annual Florida Automated
Vehicles conference in Miami, which concluded
Friday.
Brandes has drawn headlines in the tech community for filing legislation allowing virtually any automated vehicle on Florida’s roads; this summer, he helped make Florida one of the first states to make AVs without a human back-up safety driver street legal.
Among the state's advantages Brandes points to that
he believes makes it ideal for AV companies: no
snow, which makes lane markings more visible. That
also means less road construction in general...." [Read more](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article237625484.html) Hmmmm... Congratulations
Jeff!!! It was a great AV Summit and
congratulations on creating such a Welcoming
environment and intelligently shaping the
birth of this technology. What you've done is
enable Florida to begin to enhance mobility
and the quality of life for all in Florida
and especially those who can most benefit from
these mobility machines. It was most
impressive to witness the enthusiasm for
nurturing the many aspects of this
technology from Florida's Governor, Miami's
Mayor, Fl DoT's Commissioner, the heads of the
toll road authorities, planning agencies and
educational institutions. Most impressive was
Ford's comment that their autonomousTaxi
efforts are focused on developing driverless
technology and intend to operate it to
deliver Mobility-as-a-Service in Florida,
rather than sell the technology to individual
consumers. I applaud that approach and hope
that Ford will look to also bringing some of
those vehicles to New Jersey so that we can
begin to reap the benefits of this
technology. What you've accomplished in
Florida is THE "best practice" for us to
emulate in New Jersey. Congratulations.
Alain
November 16, 2019
1, 2019
An Update on the Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
2019 [Elon Musk: Tesla Full Self-Driving in early access this year, without supervision next year](https://electrek.co/2019/10/24/tesla-full-self-driving-timeline/)
2019
Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”
Your Tesla Can Now Pick You Up R. Mitchell, Oct. 4, “ Smart Summon is for parking lot use. But drivers have other ideas.
Tesla unleashed the latest twist in driverless car technology last week, raising more questions about whether autonomous vehicles are outracing public officials and safety regulators.
…Using a smartphone, a person can now command a Tesla to turn itself on, back out of a parking space and drive to the smartphone holder’s location - say at a curb in front of a Costco store..” Read more Hmmmm…. Russ, great article. A must read!
Elon, please stop. StupidSummon was a bad Valley-entitled idea before you released it. Now that it is out there it will ruin all that is good about Tesla, AutoPilot and Driverless cars. The shorters are going to have a field day.
While you are at it also remove all of the DistractTainment add ons or limit their use when AutoPilot is NOT on and drivers are engaged in driving. Just go back to V09! Along the way also get the Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) system to work properly (See NTSBbelow). To do that, maybe you should take a serious look at Velodyne’s new Tesla LiDAR. It may be able to tell you if the stationary object in the lane ahead is high enough above the road surface before your AEB system decides to disregard it. Then Tesla’s may stop decapitating drivers.
If you don’t remove StupidSummon then at least be sure to limit its use to the Tesla owner’s own private property by responsible users. (You know the GPS coordinates of where each owner lives, so you can geofence it. You also know each irresponsible use (You get the videos). Irresponsible use (use in the violation of the conditions spelled out in the user’s manual) should void its future availability in that car unless proper amend are made. If not, then insurance companies should clearly state that insuring the use of this feature requires a substantial additional premium; else, you’re not covered. Courts should view that use of this feature implies premeditated harm and demonstrates an extreme indifference to human life. Parking Lot owners should install signs forbidding the use of this feature on their property to protect themselves from being dragged into the claims process.
What is most disturbing about this feature is that its only value is to enhance the self-perceived manhood of Entitled Silicon Valley XXs and may well cause the public sector to over react and ruin to opportunity of responsible driverless mobility to substantially enhance the quality-of-life of those who can’t or choose not to drive a car, enhance the environment, subdue our energy use and reduce congestion. Elon, shame on you 2019 Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton K. Knapp, Sept 22, “What would it take to make Princeton an accessible community for all, even those who cannot or choose not to own or drive a car? Princeton Future will explore the question at a public forum from 9 a.m. to noon on Sept. 28 in the community room at the Princeton Public Library.
Princeton Future is a non-profit community group that studies
issues related to planning, development, and affordability.
Speakers will discuss the capabilities of a transit-on-demand
system where small, driverless shuttles could be summoned by a
smart phone app to a location within walking distance of a
resident's home...." [Read more](https://planetprinceton.com/2019/09/22/public-forum-will-explore-possibility-of-transit-on-demand-in-princeton/) Hmmmm....
Listen to a summary of the event in [Episode 126 of the SmartDrivingCars PodCasts](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-126). See below
for other info. Alain
2019
[Waymo's robotaxi pilot surpassed 6,200 riders in its first month in California](https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/16/waymos-robotaxi-pilot-surpassed-6200-riders-in-its-first-month-in-california/)
Autonomous Vehicles: A View from Seniors
Cruise postpones plan to launch driverless taxi service in 2019
Tesla’s autonomy event: Impressive progress with an unrealistic timeline
Automated vehicles could provide mobility to the ‘mobility disadvantaged’
FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT Lyft, Inc. Autonomous Vehicles Feb 25, “ This workshop brought together experts in cyber-physical systems, machine learning, transportation engineering, and applied mathematics, both from academia and from industry, to help bridge the technical gaps and to facilitate exchange and collaboration across disciplinary boundaries…“ Read more Hmmmm…. Slides and videos of the presentations are available here. In particular, see..:
-
Andrea Censi: “Liability, Ethics, and Culture-Aware Behavior Specification using Rulebooks” Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Monday;
-
Adam Oberman:”Generalization and adversarial robustness of Regularized Deep Neural Networks “ Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Tuesday);
-
Alain Kornhauser: “Market Forces and Market Potential for SmartDrivingCars (aka Autonomous Vehicles) “ Slides,video, (via click on Schedule 11:15 Tuesday);
-
Hani Mahmassani: “Shared Autonomous Fleet Services and Multimodal Urban Mobility: Optimization, Prediction and Dynamic Network Modeling “ Abstract, video, (via click on Schedule 4:00 Thursday);
February 15, 2019 [Facing opposition, Amazon scraps New York HQ2 plans](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/02/backlash-forces-amazon-to-scrap-ny-expansion/)
Amazon tests autonomous vehicle for deliveries
Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
A Green Light for Waymo’s Driverless Testing in California
New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles
Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)
Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164 Sponsors: Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)
Oct 16, [Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541](https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2018/Bills/A5000/4541_I1.PDF) Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14);
Lampitt (D6)..." [Read more](https://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/NVIDIA-Self-Driving-Safety-Report-2018.pdf) Hmmmm.... Things
are beginning to move in New Jersey. Alain
Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
Roman"">Friday, June 15, 2018
Waymo’s early rider program, one year in
Roman"">Tuesday, June 12, 2018 [CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS](http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M215/K467/215467801.PDF)
Roman"">Sunday, June 3, 2018
Waymo’s fleet of self-driving minivans is about to get 100 times bigger
May 25, 2018 [PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/NTSBuberPreliminaryMay2018.pdf)
May 24, “About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.
…The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency
braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions for
detecting driver alertness and road sign information. All
these Volvo functions are disabled when the test vehicle is
operated in computer control..."[Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/NTSBuberPreliminaryMay2018.pdf) Hmmmm.... Uber must believe
that its systems are better at avoiding Collisions and
Automated Emergency Braking than Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo
"off the hook".
“…According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph…” (= 63 feet/second) So the system started “seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away… more than a football field, including end zones!
“…As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path…” (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this “object’ as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected “future travel paths.” Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber’s system attached to the “object”, then the “vehicle”. Why didn’t the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision? If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren’t they accurate? Why was the object classified as a “Vehicle” ?? When did it finally classify the object as a “bicycle”? Why did it change classifications? How often was the classification of this object done. Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object. In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a “pedestrian”when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber’s Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)
“…At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision” (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
“…According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. …” NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle behavior Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating “ “erratic vehicle behavior”. This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber system’s false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.
“…The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. “ Wow! If Uber’s system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past “Peak valuation”.
“…The system is not designed to alert the operator. “ That may be the only good part of Uber’s design. In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don’t waste your time. If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast 30 and the 24 edition of May 10, 2018 Thursday, April 26, 2018
###
###
This startup’s CEO wants to open-source self-driving car safety testing
March 24, 2018 [Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail](http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-uber-death-video-20180321-story.html)
April 17, 2017
Don’t Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
19, 2015 [Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/Adam%20Jones%20-%20Shared%20Autonomy%20-%20Morgan%20Stanley.mp4) Video
similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated
Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. [Hmmm ... Watch Video](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/Adam%20Jones%20-%20Shared%20Autonomy%20-%20Morgan%20Stanley.mp4) especially at the 13:12 mark.
Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above!
Also see his [TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas). Alain
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