8.19 - Zoom inar001

April 30, 2020Newsletter archive →

edition of the 8th year of SmartDrivingCars

Luminaries Battle In Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate About The Future Of Self-Driving Cars

Lance Eliot, April 28, "Several self-driving car luminaries assembled online via a Zoom-casted battleground this week to undertake a Lincoln-Douglas style debate about the future of the Autonomous Vehicle (AV) self-driving car industry and the advent of AI-driven mobility.

Originally scheduled for one hour, the dialogue and fielding of audience questions prompted the superstars to keep going, tackling many of the most vexing and unsolved matters that underlie the potential success of self-driving vehicles, encompassing both autonomous cars and autonomous trucks.

The lively discussion was civil and polite, fortunately so in these times of seemingly stark polarization and guttural attacks during our contemporary public discourse. Yet, even in the realm of eloquent argumentation, at times the gloves came off and there were some fierce zingers and moments of rather piercing cut-the-air-with-a-knife verbal sparring..."  Read more

Hmmmm...  Lance, Thank you for the kind and thorough synopsis of our 1st Zoom-inar.  We were all pleased by the turnout, interaction and substance.    Alain

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 154 - Dan Sperling

F. Fishkin, April 29, "Can ride sharing rebound after the pandemic? Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo, Ford and more." "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 154- Dan Sperling

Video version... Watch Zoom-Cast 154  ....  Alain

SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 001 The Driverless New Normal Debate

• Zoom Video

• SmartDrivingCar PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Driverless New Normal Debate

• Zoom Audience Questions (Only a few were addressed in Zoom-inar)

• Zoom Audience Comments

• YouTube Video

https://3rev.ucdavis.edu/events/3-revolutions-policy-webinar-series-kickoff-how-will-covid-19-change-direction-3-revolutions

D. Sperling, April 27, "This webinar will focus on what transportation solutions are available to combat these trying times. Panelists will discuss what strategies states, cities, transit agencies, TNCs and others are taking to address COVID-19. The session will begin by introducing some insights into suspected changes in travel behavior, and continue with a discussion about how we can plan for a future that will enable climate resilient and equitable communities. There will be a Q&A following the presentation. ... "  Read more

Hmmmm... Excellent Webninar.  Watch and See Slides . Focused on conventional transit.  Watch and Listen to possible future implications of Driverless technology on post-Covid-19 transit in SmartDrivingCar PodCast 154 with Dan Sperling / Zoom-Cast 154 with Dan Sperling.

Tesla surprises Wall Street with first-quarter profit, stock rallies 9%

C. Assis, April, 30, "Tesla Inc. late Wednesday surprised Wall Street by posting a first-quarter profit amid the broad economic destruction wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.

Tesla TSLA, +6.66% Chief Executive Elon Musk kept the surprises going on a post-results call with analysts, veering off script to condemn the ongoing restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the virus.

Echoing his similar criticism on Twitter, Musk called the orders an "infringement of people's rights" and likened them to fascism....

First-quarter 2020 "was the first time in our history that we achieved a positive GAAP net income in the seasonally weak first quarter. Despite global operational challenges, we were able to achieve our best first quarter for both production and deliveries," Tesla said in its letter to investors." Read more

Hmmmm... You can't make up this stuff! Drinking the Kool-Aid.  Note very important comment that Dan Sperling made in Zoom-Cast 154. Alain

Off road, but not offline: How simulation helps advance our Waymo Driver

Tech, April 28, "COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the world, affecting people's lives and forcing many businesses to suspend their operations. At Waymo, we're actively monitoring the situation, taking steps to support our local communities, and contributing to COVID-19 response efforts. While Waymo has temporarily suspended its on-the-road operations as we put the health and safety of our riders, partners, and employees first, we are still driving our technology forward with our work in simulation.

Gaining 100+ years of experience in one day

Simulation is vital in the advancement of self-driving technology. At Waymo, one day in simulation is like driving more than 100 years in the real world. In simulation, we drive around 20 million miles a day,..." Read more

Hmmmm... I commented about simulation in the Zoom-inar.  Major problem with simulation is that it doesn't know what it doesn't know. (Variational analyses doesn't really get to what it doesn't know.) You really need to trip over it in the real world.  That is why what Tesla has been collecting from its customers is so valuable.  Via crowd sourcing, they 're getting close to "seeing all that Mother Nature can throw at the driving task". Alain

Ford postpones autonomous vehicle service until 2022

K. Korosec, April 28, "Ford said Tuesday it will delay until 2022 plans to launch an autonomous vehicle service, as the COVID-19 pandemic has prompted the company to rethink its go-to-market strategy.

The news was shared as part of Ford's quarterly earnings, which was released after the market closed Tuesday. Ford reported a $2 billion loss in the first quarter compared to a profit of $1.1 billion in the same period last year. The company warned that losses during the second quarter will widen as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to disrupt its business.

Ford is a bit different from other companies that have launched autonomous vehicle pilots in the United States. The automaker has been pursuing two parallel tracks that were supposed to eventually combine ahead of a planned commercial launch in 2021. The automaker is testing and homing in on what its AV business model might look like, while separately developing autonomous vehicle technology...."  Read more

Hmmmm... Not surprising and actually an opportunity to do it right. Waiting another year to more properly do something that is expected to scale and provide substantial quality-of-life enhancements to many for many years is not a bad idea! It is a good idea.

Ford/Argo has, in my view, been focused appropriately on delivering mobility-as-a-service affordably by using driverless technology to not only extract much of the labor cost required to deliver mobility but enable them to offer high-quality, demand-responsive mobility at scale and do it profitably. This is something that conventional transit hasn't been able to do, ever.  Taxis and chauffeured services are too expensive, therefore have always been and will remain a niche service.  TNCs (Lyft/Uber) remain somewhat affordable because they depend on drivers that, at best, make barely minimum wage, something that is societally not very desirable and can't scale beyond the 1% or so oCCf trips that they currently serve. Conventional public transit, which struggles to be relevant by offering service along fixed routes serving few locations sporadically on a fixed infrequent schedule.  These service offerings are designed to try to force customers to adhere to the Transit company's timetable in order to be able to distribute their high labor costs over as many users as possible (in so doing attract very few customers).  It is the labor cost that forces conventional transit to offer infrequent service along fixed routes serving few locations.  In places where people live in only a few dense places and "everything" they want to go to exists at a few other places, then conventional transit works just fine, thank you. Unfortunately, that's not the way most people live nor are the places that those people wish to go concentrated in but a few locations.

Once human labor has been extracted from the delivery of individual trips, then the service can be focused at the individual needs/desires, 24/7. This lull allows Ford/Argo to come to Trenton and position itself to offer affordable mobility to all throughout Trenton and position itself to begin to scale profitably by expanding to provide mobility to all in Mercer County, the rest of New Jersey, the Philadelphia and New York Metropolitan area and the entire Northeast corridor.  Not a bad opportunity for Ford.  In fact it's a good idea, and as my daughter Michelle likes to say... "Try to only do things that are a good idea!"Alain

Ford Protecting People, Preserving Cash, Preparing for Recovery As Pandemic Stops Most Operations, Drives Down Q1 Results

Press release, April 28, "Reports net loss of $2.0 billion; adjusted earnings before interest and taxes was negative $632 million, including estimated negative effect of at least $2 billion from coronavirus..."  Read more

Hmmmm... Not surprising; Ouch!  Alain

Audi hangs up hopes for Level 3 partial automation system

S. Szymkowski, April 28,"There's a reason some automakers are skipping Level 3 partially automated driving systems and aiming straight for Level 4, and Audi's the latest marque to discover the potential trouble the tech's rollout may cause.

Automotive News Europe reported Tuesday Audi will no longer add a Level 3 system, called Traffic Jam Pilot, to the A8 sedan in Europe. The hyped technology was also initially confirmed for the US, though it was scrapped earlier for the country over similar fears that played out in Europe in the years to come, namely legal framework. Hans-Joachim Rothenpieler, Audi's head of technical development, told the publication it's simply too late to add the technology as the current A8's already through a good portion of its lifecycle. Audi of Europe did not immediately return Roadshow's request for comment.

The deeper problem reportedly comes down to liability and the unknowns surrounding the Level 3 partial automation. ... "  Read more

Hmmmm... 1st question: Is traffic Jam Pilot "Level 3"??? Probably not, unless Audi was going to suggest that the driver doesn't need to be paying attention (can play video games, sleep, jump in the back seat, ...) when the driver initiates Traffic Jam Pilot.   If that is what Audi had in mind, then of course, they'd need regulatory cover (The regulator let/made us do it). Blame the regulator if something bad happens!  No regulator is ever going to grant that kind of cover. (I hope.) Given that Audi can't pass the buck to someone else, then there is no way that Audi (or any other OEM) is going to trust any individual, even their own customer, to not miss-use the feature or misbehave in its use. That's why SAE's Level 3 will "never" come to market (~likelihood is extremely small). Audi's decision here adds substance to a speculation that I and many others have had since day one.

OEMs are stuck with "you must remain alert and attentive to the driving task at all times, even when you are not directly manipulating the steering, throttle and/or brake". Their only other option is to take the driver completely out of the loop, (except to specify where to go and "how loud to play the music").  The OEM needs to be the adult in the room making sure that the vehicle is well maintained and remains in its certified Operational Design Domain.  (Sure, an OEM can "sell" such vehicles to an  operator/serviceProvider, but the real profit opportunity comes in the provision of the service, not supplying the commodity to the service provider.  (The real profit is in panning for the gold, not in the producing and selling of the pans & shovels.  Too much IP in those pans and shovels.) Alain

Is there a Las Vegas-Silicon Valley coronavirus connection from January tech trade show?

J. Woolfolk, April 29, "With Santa Clara County in the spotlight as one of the country's first hot zones for the deadly coronavirus, county officials are exploring an emerging theory that the biggest tech trade show on the planet — CES in Las Vegas — could have helped seed the outbreak in Silicon Valley.

The annual January event is a pilgrimage for thousands of employees from Silicon Valley and beyond who crowd together to geek out over the latest gadgets and tech toys. Several attendees complained after this year's show of suffering from an influenza-like illness, and after one — a Texas professor — tested positive this month for antibodies showing he's recovered from COVID-19, speculation is swirling that the disease was circulating at CES.

Michael E. Webber even tweeted back on Jan. 18 that he had come down with a "weird respiratory cold that has made us sick for a week." He noted he'd had his annual flu shot, and as news reports built up about the coronavirus spreading from China, Webber wrote "my paranoid self is convinced I have this new killer virus."

Since the U.S. was conducting only limited tests at the time on people who had traveled recently from China, Webber and others sharing their experiences about the Vegas or CES flu weren't tested for COVID-19. But on April 20, results of a blood test detected Webber's past infection....  "    Read more

Hmmmm...  For a while, I've wondered what role CES played in the spread of Covid-19.  My wife is tired of me saying to her, the numbers don't make sense.  Plus I'm only competent at doing "back of the envelope' analyses.

Facts are about 170,000 people attended CES 2020. Let's assume that 25% were there for one day, 50% for 2 days, 15% for 3, and 10% for 4 or more.  That gives us an average of better than 2 days per person.  In the first day, each person interacts closely with say 50 people and infects them at 10% rate (which may be very high, but needs to be because that's the justification for the Social separation.). 5 new people become infected (but of course don't become capable of infecting others until they go back home.)   On the second and subsequent days, each person interacts closely again with 50 people but half of them are the same as on the previous day(s).  2.25 more infections from the repeat group and 2.5 from the new group become infected. After 2 days we have 9.75 newly infected people.  An infected person staying 3 days would infect a little more than 14.25 people.  On average, call it 10 newly infected CES attendee for each pre CES infected person.

Each of those newly infected folks traveled home by going through airports and initiated breakouts in their home towns. Maybe they didn't interact with as many as they did @ CES nor as many new people each day but progressively over 5 or so days, they infected way more than one person. 5 would not be outrageous. They didn't know they had it and were oblivious of any potential consequences.   After just 2 "cycles" each pre-CES infected person  has infected 50 others. By the end of February almost half of the US is infected by each pre-CES infected person.

Out of the 170,000 CES attendees say 5% came from China.  That's 8,500 individuals. Even if only 0.125% were infected, those 10 pre-CES infected individuals would have infected half of the planet by the first week of March when "herd immunity would have begun to kick in.  Exponential growth is nasty!   This implies that either many fewer than 0.125% of those attending CES had Covid-19, or it is hard for one person to infect another under "pre-Covid-19" human interactions or only a very small fraction of those infected by Covid-19 get really sick or even know that they've gotten it. (~less than 0.1%), or I'm completely screwy.  You choose.  (I know, I'm completely screwy!)

Then there is the Annual TRB Conference in Washington in mid January.  Order of magnitude fewer participants and percentage-wise maybe as many from China, but that's an additional source producing 5 agents that went home after the conference and grow exponentially for a month and a half at non-trivial "R naughts"... Alain

VW Admits Tesla's Software And Autonomy Lead In Internal Communications

B. Anderson, April 28, "nternal communications viewed by German publication Automobilwoche addressed both the software lead Tesla has over its competitors as well as how its Autopilot semi-autonomous driving system is ahead of all rivals.

Diess reportedly told fellow executives that Tesla's software is ahead of its own and "any other automobile manufacturer," while admitting that it is giving him "headaches." Diess added that Tesla's customers appear won over by the ability to control the car through their smartphones....

"What worries me the most is the capabilities in the assistance systems," he said. "500,000 Teslas function as a neural network that continuously collects data and provides the customer a new driving experience every 14 days with improved properties. No other automobile manufacturer can do that today."..."  Read more

Hmmmm... What??? "ability to control the car through their smartphones"??? Something is being lost in translation here.  Except for "StupidSummon" Teslas aren't being controlled through their smartPhones.  What the smartPhones control isn't what VW should be worried about.  AutoPilot and how Tesla sells cars and supports its customers is what VW should worry about.  Michael Sena, what do you think?? Alain

Ford and Lincoln cancel Rivian-powered electric vehicle due to the pandemic

S. O'Kane, April 28, "Ford and its luxury brand Lincoln have canceled an all-electric SUV that was going to be powered by technology provided by EV startup Rivian, the companies told Automotive News on Tuesday.

Lincoln says it is still working closely with Rivian, including an "alternative vehicle" that will also be based on Rivian's electric vehicle skateboard platform...."  Read more

Hmmmm...  Ouch!  Alain

Tesla is working on pay-as-you-go subscription to its self-driving package

F. Lambert, April 28, "Tesla is working on a pay-as-you-go subscription to its "Full Self-Driving Capability" package in order to make its features more accessible.:... " Read more

Hmmmm...  $7k up front is non-trivial in a Post Covid-19 world.  They need to find a way to take the sting out of it. They could use insurance premiums to provide some incentive.  They really must be safer than traditional actuaries give them credit for. Alain

The Supercharged Race Car Driver

K. Pyle, April 28, "Scott Falci is testing the bounds of the human-machine interface through the nonprofit he founded, Falci Adaptive Motorsports. The name describes what they do, as they are adapting race cars so they can be driven without using traditional controls. In one sense, what Falci and his team have done is like the hands-free control of a wheelchair; a wheelchair that races to 130 miles per hour."  Read more

Hmmmm... Very nice.  See video.  Alain New Roman"">    DraftPrinceton SmartDrivingCar Summit Postponed until Evening Oct. 20 through Oct. 22, 2020 A. Kornhauser, Feb 6, "The focus of the Summit this year will be moving beyond the AI and the Sensors to addressing the challenges of Commercialization and  the delivery of tangible value to communities.  We've made enormous progress with the technology. We're doing the investment; however, this investment delivers value only if is commercialized: made available and is used by consumers in large numbers.  Demos and one-offs are "great", but to deliver value that is anywhere near commensurate with the magnitude of the investment made to date, initial deployments need to scale.  We can't just have "Morgantown PRT Systems" whose initial deployment has been nothing but enormously successful for 45 years (an essentially perfect safety record, an excellent availability record and customer valued mobility).  Unfortunately, the system was never expanded or duplicated anywhere.  It didn't scale.  It is a one-off.

Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale.  In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va.  which became the reference for many other cites.  "... By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague's equipment had been begun or planned on several continents..." Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology.  It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.

In part, the 4th Summit will focus on defining the "Richmond" of Affordable Shared-ride On-demand Mobility-as-a-Service.  The initial Operational Design Domain (ODD) that safely accommodates Driverless Mobility Machines that people actually choose to use and becomes the envy of communities Read more

Hmmmm... Draft Program is in flux.  Consider all named individuals as "Invited yet to be confirmed". Alain

C'mon Man!(These folks didn't

get/read the memo)

Sunday Supplement

Half-Baked

Click-Bait

Calendar

of Upcoming Events:s

until Evening Oct. 20 -> Oct 22.

SmartDrivingCar Summit

Princeton University Princeton, NJ

On the More Technical Side

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/

Recent Pod--Casts & Zoom-Casts

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 153 - Dick Mudge2

F. Fishkin, April 17, "The plummeting price of oil and what it may mean for mobility, ride sharing and the economy.. Dick Mudge, founder and president of Compass Transportation & Technology joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus GM, Uber and more on the Coronavirus impact." "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 153- Dick Mudge2

Smart Driving Cars Pod-Cast Episode 152 - Brad Templeton

F. Fishkin, April 17, "Can robotaxis survive a pandemic? Internet pioneer, self driving car consultant and author Brad Templeton joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in a wide ranging chat on the impact today and the future. Plus...Uber, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla and more." "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 152 - Brad Templeton

Smart Driving Cars Pod-Cast Episode 151- Joe Moye

F. Fishkin, April 9, "In the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic, fully autonomous, driverless vehicles are carrying medical supplies and Covid-19 tests to the Mayo Clinic in Florida. They're provided by Beep and the CEO, Joe Moye, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that, plus the latest from Nuro, Tesla and more." "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 151 - Joe Moye

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 150 - Andrei Greenawalt

F. Fishkin, April 3, "Coronavirus devastates transportation and mobility. How does it recover? Matthew Daus, former NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission chairman, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and much more. Watch,  subscribe, and "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

Smart Driving Cars VideoCast Episode 150 - Andrei Greenawalt

Video version... Watch episode 150 with Andrei Greenawalt.... Alain

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 149 - Matt Daus

F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, "The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also...Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!" "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 149 - Matt Daus Video version... Watch episode 149 with Matt Daus.... Alain

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop

F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, "The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also...Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!" "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop Video version... Watch our first attempt.... Alain

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, Mar. 14, "From Sweden...The Dispatcher editor Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin as Covid-19 takes a toll on Waymo, Uber and more. Plus Saving the Car Industries in the U.S. and the EU... the latest from Future Networked Car 2020 in Geneva and more." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 145 - L. Walker

F. Fishkin, Mar. 5, "Tackling the issues of children in autonomous vehicles, Lorrie Walker of Safe Kids Worldwide joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest from Waymo, Tesla, GM, Uber, Lyft and more." "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes

F. Fishkin, Feb 15, "What shifting populations mean for the future of mobility and transportation. Leading expert Jim Hughes of Rutgers University joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Tesla, GM, Comma AI's inexpensive autopilot, Aptiv, Lyft and more. Tune in and subscribe! "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy

F. Fishkin, Feb 7, "The latest glossary of BS in mobility, self driving and autonomy from author, podcaster and cannonball driver Alex Roy on Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the news from Tesla, Nuro, Waymo, GM and more! " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 140 - C. Mericli

F. Fishkin, Jan 31, "How self driving tech can increase profits in the trucking industry. Locomation's CEO joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Waymo's partnership with UPS, Tesla's rocket ride, Hyundai's Smart Park Super Bowl ad and more.  " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O'Toole

F. Fishkin, Jan 25, "Adaptive cruise control and self driving tech may lead to more urban sprawl. But the Cato Institute's Randal O'Toole says maybe that isn't a bad thing. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Subaru's tech, GM's Cruise, Tesla and more on the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This edition is sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information…head to www.motoetf.com "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart

F. Fishkin, Jan 18, "The new mobility on the ground and in the air. Nicolas Zart joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for a discussion on Urban Air Mobility...plus..Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Mobileye, Waymo and more in this edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136

F. Fishkin, Jan 6, "He's back! Princeton's Alain Kornhauser...still on the mend ...but opinionated as ever...joins co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the latest from Waymo, Tesla and more in Episode 136 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson

F. Fishkin, Dec 5, "In this special edition... the launch of a new exchange traded fund focused on smart transportation and technology.   Guinness Atkinson Asset Management CEO Jim Atkinson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus..a push by the Coalition for Future Mobility for action in Washington, AutoX wants driverless testing in California and Aptiv grows in Pittsburgh. "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, Nov. 1, "An updated outlook for automated vehicles...Tesla, Waymo , Ford, VW and more. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by guests Michael Sena and Dick Mudge in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 126 - Sturges & Caudill F. Fishkin, Sept 19 , "From the public library in Princeton, NJ... a special edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast following a public forum conducted by Princeton Future on the potential for transit on demand for all. Join Princeton professor Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and special guests for that...plus...the latest on Waymo, Tesla, Hyundai, Aptiv and more. " Pictures from the Princeton Future Public Forum on Driverless  Mobility for All.

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 121 - Ken Pyle F. Fishkin, Aug 22 , "Daimler and Bosch hold a community meeting in San Jose as they ready plans for autonomous vehicle testing. Community board member Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Waymo, Tesla and more."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 116 - Jerome Lutin F. Fishkin, July 20, "Can technology dramatically improve the safety of bus transportation for pedestrians, riders and drivers? The lead investigator in a national study, Jerry Lutin,  joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on episode 116 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Plus...Tesla's new safety report, the latest from Lyft, Aptiv and a NY Times report on why driverless cars are taking longer than expected. Tune in and subscribe!."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM F. Fishkin, June 9, "Should the insurance industry be pushing more safety and autonomous tech in cars? It's a win, win says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser. Joining him in the discussion along with co-host Fred Fishkin is NJM's John Hardiman, a board member of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Also...Fiat Chrysler, Ford and more."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot F. Fishkin, May 25, " The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus...Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup

F. Fishkin, May 18, "Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It's just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit Leilei Shinohara & Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell

F. Fishkin, May 18, "In this special edition from the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit, Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by RoboSense VP Leilei Shinohara on the LiDAR's benefits. And view of autonomous technology from law enforcement with New York State Police

Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley

F. Fishkin, May 18, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, David Kidd from the Highway Loss Data Institute joins Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin and then on site preliminary research results on mobility for all with Cecilia Feeley and Andrea Lubin from Rutgers."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund

F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 100 - Andrei Greenawalt'99/Via

April 5, F. Fishkin, "The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena'69

March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 81 -nVIDIA, Shapiro & Local  Motors / Olli, Hodge

F. Fishkin,  Jan. 9,  "How NVIDIA is paving the way for self driving cars and a new OLLI automated transport from Local Motors. NVIDIA's Senior Director for Automotive, Danny Shapiro and Kurtis Hodge of Local Motors join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for another edition of Smart Driving Cars from CES 2019.."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55

F. Fishkin,  Dec. 13,  "When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says "Not so fast."  The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui F. Fishkin, Nov 29,  "What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 68 - Dick Mudge F. Fishkin, Nov 22,  "The insurance industry hears about the outlook for automated vehicles. Co-author Dick Mudge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 68 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Uber, GM Cruise, Waymo, VW and more. Tune in and subscribe!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV F. Fishkin, Nov 1,  "California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state's deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles

F. Fishkin, Sept 22  "In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety...and a champion racer. Beyond that....he's an old high school friend of Alain's! And there's more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy

F. Fishkin, Sept 6,  "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"

Recent Highlights of:

What Negative Oil Prices Mean and How the Impact Could Last V. Bajaj, April 22,"A main benchmark for the price of oil fell negative for the first time ever this week. The decline — more than 300 percent in daily trading — raised fresh questions about the damage the coronavirus is having on the global economy.

What does it mean for oil prices to be negative?

A benchmark price for a barrel of oil to be delivered next month fell to -$37.63 on Monday, which means that sellers would have to pay someone that much to take it off their hands.

But that historic plunge was exacerbated by a quirk in how the oil markets work.

The negative price concerned only contracts for delivery of barrels in May that are traded on so-called futures markets. At the same time trading happens for May deliveries, people trade on contracts ending in June, in July and so on." Read more

Hmmmm... What???  I realize that I'm often "out of it", but...  In all my life I have NEVER... thought of, let alone mentioned, nor have heard anyone else mention the concept of negative oil! Often, talked about $150/B oil, $250/B, S20/B even $7/B oil. NEVER $0/B oil, negative Oil... NEVER,NEVER, NEVER!!!!  and look where we are.  UNBELIEVABLE!!! Implications:... no one's models extrapolate to that regime. (it requires extrapolation because no data exists in this unimaginable region. Listen to Pod-Cast; Watch Zoom-Cast Alain

Can Robotaxis Survive A Pandemic?

B. Templeton, April, 13, "Almost all the self-driving car fleets are out of operation right now. The primary reason is that testing these cars is not an "essential service" and so the safety drivers who supervise them are not allowed to come to work. Most companies use a team of two people in each car, which would create a disease risk, and to top it off, the roads are empty and this unnaturally easy, making testing less valuable.

Questions arise about what happens in the robocar world if we need to suffer another pandemic in the future. The Covid-19 crisis took place before the commercial deployment of robocars, but that won't be true later. I covered some issues in my article on delivery robots, but let's consider what we've learned this year: Uber/Lyft LYFT and Taxi rides are way, way down, and not just because all travel is way down

• Transit ridership has cratered, and service has been cut

• Delivery demand has vastly increased

• People worry if drivers might be infectious

• People don't want to touch things, from seats to scooter handlebars, that others are touching

All travel is way down, but people are particularly suspicious of travel with other people, be it transit, or riding with a driver. They are also concerned about sitting down in a vehicle where somebody else just sat. With parking plentiful, there are incentives to go back to using your own car even if you previously used something else. Scooter services like Lime and Bird have also suffered major declines.

As noted in the delivery article, while delivery robots are always good in a time when there is a massive surge in demand for delivery, it's pretty easy for a driver in a van with an automatic door to never have to touch the packages, just like a delivery robot. With massive unemployment, human driven vans are probably the best answer to the delivery demand surge...."  Read more

Hmmmm... Not a pretty picture, but with every challenge, comes opportunities... Listen watch more on Pod-Cast_152/Zoom-Cast_152. Alain

Autonomous shuttles help transport COVID-19 tests at Mayo Clinic in Florida

Press release, April, 2, "For the first time in the U.S., autonomous vehicles are being used to transport medical supplies and COVID-19 tests at Mayo Clinic in Florida.

At a time when health care resources and staff are stretched thin, the Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA) has partnered with Beep and NAVYA to use autonomous vehicles to safely transport COVID-19 tests collected at a drive-thru testing location at Mayo Clinic in Florida.

"This development is a historic moment for the Jacksonville Transportation Authority," says Nathaniel P. Ford, Sr., CEO of Jacksonville Transportation Authority. "Along with our partners, Beep, NAVYA and Mayo Clinic, we are leveraging our learnings from three years of testing autonomous vehicles through our Ultimate Urban Circulator program. Our innovative team saw this as an opportunity to use technology to respond to this crisis in Northeast Florida and increase the safety of COVID-19 testing."..." Read more

Hmmmm... While not mentioned in the article, they are operating Driverlessly... without attendant or safety driver.  Yea!!!  (People aren't being moved, just goods and the Operational Design Domain is constrained, but it it is driverless none the less!)  Listen watch more on Pod-Cast_151/Zoom-Cast_151. Alain

Via raises Series E financing to expand access to efficient, sustainable, and equitable public mobility across the globe Press release, Mar. 30, "Via, the company that provides digital infrastructure to power public mobility in cities around the world, announces today that it has raised a Series E financing led by EXOR. The financing values the company at $2.25B and will enable Via to advance its vision of efficient, accessible, and equitable public mobility.

Via's technology powers the next generation of public transportation, helping cities move beyond a system of rigid routes and schedules to a fully dynamic network. Via's algorithm efficiently combines, in real time, multiple passengers or packages headed in the same direction, significantly reducing urban congestion and emissions while providing a high quality and lower cost mobility service. Available in more than 70 cities in 20 countries, and growing rapidly..."  Read more

Hmmmm... Ride-sharing may not be dead.  Listen to PodCast 150, watch VideoCast 150 Alain

Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19

D. Hall, Mar 25, "... The result in late March 2020 has been one where a confluence of risks has come together. Additional operational and financial risks may emerge as additional events compound on the current situation. Actuaries will be watching for any additional risk events that layer on to the current environment, especially ones that may cause additional property, mortality and health risks such as catastrophic weather events. Morbidity, mortality, asset/liability management and operational risks are all a part of the initial and evolving story. This update to the Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key continuing and new features of the pandemic all around the world and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work..." Read more

Hmmmm... This is one of the best reports that I have seen and will be updated  every 10 days or so. A good summary of the materials, podcasts and other good sources are here:

https://www.soa.org/resources/newsroom/covid-19-updates/#research

https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2020/impact-coronavirus/

ECDPC Daily data GitHub Covid19 data

Cases of COVID-19

Alain

Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead?

R. Bishop, Mar 24, "I met Stefan Seltz-Axmacher for the first time in November 2015 at the Florida Automated Vehicles Summit. Not long after, we met at the Blue Danube coffee shop in Alameda, CA so he could tell me about his vision for Starsky Robotics. When he energetically described his remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. "Remote driving is hard," I said. "The military has struggled with this for years. Its harder than it looks." On the technical side, latency for secure communications is challenging. On the operational side, re-creating enough on-road reality (situational awareness) for a remote driver is difficult when going for the high levels of safety needed. Seltz-Axmacher remained bullish on the approach and at that time went on to found Starsky Robotics as one of the earliest truck AV startups, later closing a $16.5M Series A funding round in March 2018, and then hauling freight while developing both remote and automated driving ability. Initially, Starsky's concept was all about remote driving for first/last mile. They later expanded their offering to include fully automated highway driving on limited freight corridors.

Now, Starsky has become the first casualty within a crowded truck automation space, and Seltz-Axmacher has provided us with an intriguing post-mortem in a recent Medium post. Most of the media coverage I've seen has acted as echo chambers for Seltz-Axmacher's perspective. Here I offer a counterpoint based on my longtime involvement in truck automation plus discussions with many others in the truck Automated Driving Systems (ADS) startup space, many of them irate at what they see as unfounded assertions made in the original post. My sources tell me that because Seltz-Axmacher hasn't experienced their technology nor been briefed on their technical/safety approach, he has no basis to make sweeping claims about the entire industry...." Read more

Hmmmm... Listen to PodCast 148. or/and Watch us on YouTube. Alain

Waymo suspends robotaxi service except for its truly driverless vehicles K. Korosec, Mar. 17, "Waymo  said Tuesday it is pausing operations of Waymo One, a service in the Phoenix area that allows the public to hail rides in self-driving vehicles with trained human safety operators behind the wheel, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Waymo is also halting testing on public roads in California.

However, Waymo will keep some operations up and running, notably its truly driverless vehicles, which don't require a human safety driver, according to an announcement on its website Tuesday. These driverless vehicles are used in the Phoenix area as part of Waymo's early rider program that lets vetted members of the public hail a ride..."   Read more  Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the latest is not so good...   Waymo has suspended all services, including the driverless. Poopie!!! Alain

WAYMO DRIVERS SAY THEY'RE BEING DISCOURAGED FROM CANCELING ROBOTAXI RIDES DURING CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK

A. Hawkins, Mar. 13, "Waymo,Waymo, the self-driving unit of Alphabet, says it will keep operating its fleet of roughly 600 self-driving taxis in Arizona during the novel coronavirus outbreak. But the safety drivers who monitor the autonomous taxis are concerned that they are being put in harm's way.

Waymo is "strongly encouraging" its full-time employees without "business critical" tasks to work from home. Its safety drivers, who are employed by a French transit company called Transdev North America that has a multiyear contract with Waymo, are still mostly required to come into work, The Verge has learned. Transdev appears to be following guidelines set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) by stepping up the frequency of its cleanings and disinfections. But drivers tell The Verge that the Waymo vendor is ignoring recommendations about social distancing.

"It feels like the drivers are treated like second class citizens, having to report to work and serve 'hails' while the full-time employees are required to work from home to stay safe," said a Waymo driver who requested anonymity in order to speak freely. "Safety for some."..."  Read more

Hmmmm... I thought that Waymo had started offering rides without safety drivers in Chandler???? I guess, they do it in a "smaller" Operational Design Domain (ODD) and they are trying to expand that ODD by operating with safety drivers for trip originating and or terminating outside that original "smaller" ODD.

Anyway... I often use the elevator to try to understand autonomousTaxis... driverless mobility machines.  Will we look back to this complaint by attendants as the turning point which hasten Waymo's operation of its vehicles without attendants on-board much as the elevator operator's strike in NYC in September 1945 hasten the deployment of automated elevators (see Pushing the right Buttons)?   As I've been writing, the biggest challenge of Uber/Lyft is management of its drivers. It looks like Waymo is experiencing the same challenges with its attendants. Moreover,  a NECESSARY condition on economic viability is safely operating without a driver/attendant. We may look back and credit COVID-19 as hastening Waymo's deployment of driverless mobility for all.  This may be COVID-19's only positive contribution to society.    Alain

Call to Action on Children in Autonomous Vehicles Feb. 2020, "The Blue Ribbon Panel on Children in Autonomous Vehicles is calling on developers of autonomous vehicles (AVs) to ensure that AVs are engineered, deployed and marketed to protect the unique needs of child passengers. Developers are broadly defined to include original equipment manufacturers, non-original equipment manufacturers, as well as designers of component systems such as LIDAR, chip or satellite manufacturers, and others building key components of AVs.

AVs must be developed, regulations upgraded and laws passed to ensure children will be properly restrained, have the highest level of protection in a crash, and can be appropriately supervised during a trip. This panel believes it is imperative that minor children never be transported without appropriate supervision by a parent, guardian or caregiver until best practices are adopted.

We're asking developers to commit to the following actions: ... "  Read more

Hmmmm... Given that one of the largest mobility marginalized groups are individuals that are too young to drive, including the very young that require supervision as well as those that are old enough to ride alone, this focus group is very important and very pertinent. Alain

NTSB slams Tesla, Apple and regulators over a fatal Autopilot crash

R. Mitchell, Feb. 25, "The nation's top safety investigator slammed Tesla on Tuesday for failing to take adequate measures to prevent "foreseeable abuse" of its Autopilot driver-assistance technology, in a hearing into the fatal 2018 crash of a Tesla Model X SUV in Mountain View, Calif.

The National Transportation Safety Board said 38-year-old Walter Huang, an Apple software engineer, had Autopilot engaged in his 2018 Tesla Model X and was playing a video game on his iPhone when the car crashed into a defective safety barrier on U.S. Highway 101.The board also blamed the highway safety arm of the U.S. Department of Transportation for failing to properly regulate rapidly evolving robot-car technology.... The board adopteda long list of measures meant to reduce such accidents as "partially automated driving" technologies become more popular in new vehicles.... Sumwalt made clear the Mountain View crash was not an isolated incident, but illustrative of the safety issues involved as humans and robot systems increasingly share the driving, not just in Teslas but in vehicles from all manufacturers. "It's time to stop enabling drivers in any partially automated vehicle to pretend that they have driverless cars," he said.

.......  the Model X drove straight down the middle of a "gore lane," a white-striped zone where cars aren't supposed to go," ... It is clear from the images that the gore area was NOT white-striped as is supposed to be and the lane markings are badly worn.  Why didn't NTSB fault the CA DoT for its poor maintenance and marking practices.  CA DoT needs to be severely reprimanded. " ... a Toyota Prius crashed into it 11 days earlier..." to what extent did NTSB investigate the Prius crash.  It didn't have autoPilot, so that's not the common factor.  I suspect that the confusing lane markings and the lack of striping is the root cause... " ... The car's collision avoidance system did not detect the crash barrier." ... I suspect that this is NOT true.  The system detected the stationary object, but the coded logic disregards stationary objects (classifies them as false alarms) because false positives are too likely. NTSB made a similar error in the Joshua Brown crash where the system didn't mis-identify the stationary trailer ahead as being background sky, but instead classified the stationary object in the lane ahead as a false positive . NTSB investigators have failed to ask the right questions in these investigations...

" ....The car's forward collision warning system did not provide an alert, and the automatic braking system did not activate."... Again, the system classified stationary objects in the lane ahead as phantom objects and disregards them.  Once disregarded, there is no reason to initiate a warning or apply Emergency Brakes. Yipes! Read more

Hmmmm... Hopefully this will curtail the misbehavior in the use of these systems.  The Self-driving systems require constant adult supervision. I suspect that NHTSA will place extraordinarily onerous regulations on personally owned self-driving cars that will effectively ban the ability to sleep, play video games, text or otherwise be non-vigilant in all non-driverless vehicles. Driverless vehicles will be required to be operated and maintained by a responsible fleet manager and not have any straight forward way for a human to drive them. Certainly no steering wheel or pedals.  I expect that they'll also ban the use of Stupid-Summon-like systems outside of one's own personal property.  They should. Alain

"Urbs," "Burbs," and the Immigration Locomotive

J. Hughes, Feb 2020, "Even more so than the nation, the broad fourstate, 35-county metropolitan region centered on New York City (figure 1) is becoming afflicted by a condition of demographic stagnation. While the United States has been experiencing the lowest population growth rates since the Great Depression, the region has only recently (2016–2018) slipped into absolute population decline, spawned by domestic outmigration. The major counterforce forestalling a demographic catastrophe has been positive international migration. Immigration has become the primary source of population growth—the demographic locomotive. Without it, the region would have to bear fully the economic consequences of what has become a virtual domestic population hemorrhage—a vast exodus of regional residents moving to the rest of the country. This is just one dimension of endemic demographic change that has swept the post–Great Recession world....

The second new reset is a turnaround of the pattern evidenced in the 2010–2016 period, when population growth in the "urbs" surpassed that of the "burbs." After dominating growth early in the decade (2010–2016), the core—the urban heart of the metropolitan region encompassing New York City and three adjacent counties in New Jersey—suddenly slipped into decline post-2016, causing the region as a whole to lose population. This is the latest transformation in what has become a transmillennial demographic roller coaster ride... "   Read more

Hmmmm... Most interesting Demographic Dynamic.   A must read. Alain

NHTSA Grants Nuro Exemption Petition for Testing Low-Speed Driverless Vehicle

2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about 'Smaht Pahk' S. Szymkowski, Jan 27, "Hyundai is going all in on Boston accents and the 2020 Sonata for its Super Bowl advertisement. As is often the trend these days, the ad made its debut on Monday less than a week before the big game, but it's quite a clever spot...."  Read more

Hmmmm...  This is as irresponsible of Hyundai as StupidSummon is for Tesla. It may even be more irresponsible because Hyundai hasn't included the over-the-air-information system that allows them to monitor its use. Having the car do stuff without an alert and attentive driver in the driver's seat implies liability on them (their system) if something bad happens.  Plus, squeezing a car into a parking place when the people can't get into the adjacent cars is not the smartest move unless you've also made the Hyundai key proof. There will be retaliation. Alain January 24,

The Disengagement Myth Kyle Vogt, Jan 17, "In a few weeks the California DMV will release disengagements data from Cruise and other companies who test AVs on public roads. This data is really great for giving the public a sense of what's happening on the roads. Unfortunately, it has also been used by the media and others to compare technology from different AV companies or as a proxy for commercial readiness. Since it's the only publicly available metric, I don't really blame them for using it. But it's woefully inadequate for most uses beyond those of the DMV. The idea that disengagements give a meaningful signal about whether an AV is ready for commercial deployment is a myth. ..."  Read more

Hmmmm...  Amen! This is a MUST read.  As with everything, details matter.  It is true that figures don't lie, but but it is easy to game systems such that figures, without the underlying details, do lie. As Kyle points out, there are important details associated with disengagements. These need to be well understood for disengagements to be a proxy for safety and market readiness. The when, where and associated details of each disengagement is critically important if the objective is safety and market readiness.

What is also most important here is the underlying objective of the companies doing the tests and reporting the data.  As has happened in our secondary education where students are taught what is in and how to take the SATs rather than just learn. The objective is not learning , but getting 800s on the SATs so that they can get into 'Princeton'. This is perpetuated by the 'Princetons' of this world that don't look into the details of the student's academic qualities and capabilities. In the academic world, we know these students as 'box checkers', gamers of the college admission process.  The gaming is continued by the 'banks and med schools' that use simplistic GPA (Grade Point Average, aka 'disengagements') cutoffs.  The 'box checkers' then take 'underwater basket weaving' courses and become grade grubbers. It is lazy and irresponsible to use simplistic measures as proxies to very complex concepts such as intelligence, creativity, compatibility, and all the other details that make a good student, a good employee, a good citizen, a good mobility system.

In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig".  It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.

I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD.  Each will demand that it be safe.  The board will also demand that it be profitable.  What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? Alain

Hmmmm...

Reflections

A. Kornhauser, Jan 12,   

Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding.  I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard.  It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell.  Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s.  The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded.  As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile.  Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl.  Alain

January 6, 2020

Back

A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6,   

Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers.  They each helped.  I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor.  I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere.  Alain

November 30, 2019   Chandler unveils drop-off, pick-up zone for self-driving cars G. Zetino, Nov. 25, ""It's about to get easier for self-driving cars to drop off and pick up passengers in Chandler.   The city of Chandler, in partnership with Waymo, on Friday unveiled the nation's first drop-off and pick-up zone for autonomous ride-hailing cars.

Read more 

Hmmmm... The iconic image:

autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain.  The first of what may well become a half million or so others.  Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility).  Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M  aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain

November 23, 2019   Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida R. Wile, Nov 22, "Sen. Jeff Brandes (R-St. Petersburg) had just finished serving in the Army, and was looking to make a name for himself in Tallahassee as a junior representative. He came across a talk given by the founder of Google's driverless car project.

He quickly realized the potential of self-driving cars to transform many aspects of daily life. Ever since, he has made it his mission to turn Florida into what he calls "an angel investor" in automation policy. "We want to have policies in place for this technology to flourish," Brandes said in an interview at the 7th Annual Florida Automated Vehicles conference in Miami, which concluded Friday.

Brandes has drawn headlines in the tech community for filing legislation allowing virtually any automated vehicle on Florida's roads; this summer, he helped make Florida one of the first states to make AVs without a human back-up safety driver street legal.

Among the state's advantages Brandes points to that he believes makes it ideal for AV companies: no snow, which makes lane markings more visible. That also means less road construction in general...."  Read more 

Hmmmm... Congratulations Jeff!!! It was a great AV Summit and congratulations on creating such a Welcoming environment and intelligently shaping the birth of this technology. What you've done is enable Florida to begin to enhance mobility and the quality of life for all in Florida  and especially those who can most benefit from these mobility machines.  It was most impressive to witness the enthusiasm for nurturing the many aspects of this technology from Florida's Governor, Miami's Mayor, Fl DoT's Commissioner, the heads of the toll road authorities, planning agencies and educational institutions.  Most impressive was Ford's comment that their autonomousTaxi efforts are focused on developing driverless technology and intend to operate it to deliver Mobility-as-a-Service in Florida, rather than sell the technology to individual consumers.  I applaud that approach and hope that Ford will look to also bringing some of those vehicles to New Jersey so that we can begin to reap the benefits of this technology.  What you've accomplished in Florida is THE "best practice" for us to emulate in New Jersey. Congratulations.   Alain November 16, 2019

PyTorch at Tesla

November 1, 2019

An Update on the Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems

October 18, 2019

Waymo to customers: "Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way"

Your Tesla Can Now Pick You Up R. Mitchell, Oct. 4, " Smart Summon is for parking lot use. But drivers have other ideas.

Tesla unleashed the latest twist in driverless car technology last week, raising more questions about whether autonomous vehicles are outracing public officials and safety regulators.

...Using a smartphone, a person can now command a Tesla to turn itself on, back out of a parking space and drive to the smartphone holder's location - say at a curb in front of a Costco store.."  Read more 

Hmmmm.... Russ, great article. A must read!

Elon, please stop.  StupidSummon was a bad Valley-entitled idea before you released it.  Now that it is out there it will ruin all that is good about Tesla, AutoPilot and Driverless cars.  The shorters are going to have a field day.

While you are at it also remove all of the DistractTainment add ons or limit their use when AutoPilot is NOT on and drivers are engaged in driving.  Just go back to V09!  Along the way also get the Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) system to work properly (See NTSBbelow).  To do that, maybe you should take a serious look at Velodyne's   new Tesla LiDAR.  It may be able to tell you if the stationary object in the lane ahead is high enough above the road surface before your AEB system decides to disregard it. Then Tesla's may stop decapitating drivers.

If you don't remove StupidSummon then at least be sure to limit its use to the Tesla owner's own private property by responsible users.  (You know the GPS coordinates of where each owner lives, so you can geofence it.  You also know each irresponsible use (You get the videos).  Irresponsible use (use in the violation of the conditions spelled out in the user's manual) should void its future availability in that car unless proper amend are made.  If not, then insurance companies should clearly state that insuring the use of this feature requires a substantial additional premium; else, you're not covered.  Courts should view that use of this feature implies premeditated harm and demonstrates an extreme indifference to human life. Parking Lot owners should install signs forbidding the use of this feature on their property to protect themselves from being dragged into the claims process.

What is most disturbing about this feature is that its only value is to enhance the self-perceived manhood of Entitled Silicon Valley XXs and may well cause the public sector to over react and ruin to opportunity of responsible driverless mobility to substantially enhance the quality-of-life of those who can't or choose not to drive a car, enhance the environment, subdue our energy use and reduce congestion. Elon, shame on you September 28, 2019 Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton K. Knapp, Sept 22, "What would it take to make Princeton an accessible community for all, even those who cannot or choose not to own or drive a car? Princeton Future will explore the question at a public forum from 9 a.m. to noon on Sept. 28 in the community room at the Princeton Public Library.

Princeton Future is a non-profit community group that studies issues related to planning, development, and affordability. Speakers will discuss the capabilities of a transit-on-demand system where small, driverless shuttles could be summoned by a smart phone app to a location within walking distance of a resident's home...."  Read more 

Hmmmm.... Listen to a summary of the event in Episode 126 of the SmartDrivingCars PodCasts. See below for other info. Alain September 20, 2019   Waymo's robotaxi pilot surpassed 6,200 riders in its first month in California

August 17, 2019

Autonomous Vehicles:  A View from Seniors

March 29, 2019

Automated vehicles could provide mobility to the 'mobility disadvantaged' March 1, 2019

FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT Lyft, Inc. Autonomous Vehicles Feb 25, " This workshop brought together experts in cyber-physical systems, machine learning, transportation engineering, and applied mathematics, both from academia and from industry, to help bridge the technical gaps and to facilitate exchange and collaboration across disciplinary boundaries..."  Read more 

Hmmmm.... Slides and videos of the presentations are available here. In particular, see..:

• Andrea Censi: "Liability, Ethics, and Culture-Aware Behavior Specification using Rulebooks"  Abstract, Slides, video (via click on  Schedule 11:30 Monday;

• Adam Oberman:"Generalization and adversarial robustness of Regularized Deep Neural Networks "  Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Tuesday);

• Alain Kornhauser: "Market Forces and Market Potential for SmartDrivingCars (aka Autonomous Vehicles) " Slides,video, (via click on  Schedule 11:15 Tuesday);

• Hani Mahmassani: "Shared Autonomous Fleet Services and Multimodal Urban Mobility: Optimization, Prediction and Dynamic Network Modeling "  Abstract, video, (via click on  Schedule 4:00 Thursday);

November 22, 2018 Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems

October 24, 2018New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors:  Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)

Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164 Sponsors:  Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)

Oct 16, Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541 Sponsors:  Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14); Lampitt (D6)..."  Read more

Hmmmm.... Things are beginning to move in New Jersey.  Alain

Testimony of Alain Kornhauser, Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM

Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM

June 12,  2018  CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS

3,  2018

Waymo's fleet of self-driving minivans is about to get 100 times bigger

PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)

May 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.

...The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency

braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions for detecting driver alertness and road sign information. All these Volvo functions are disabled when the test vehicle is operated in computer control..."Read more 

Hmmmm.... Uber must believe that its systems are better at avoiding Collisions and Automated Emergency Braking than Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo "off the hook".

"...According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph..." (= 63 feet/second)  So the system started "seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away... more than a football field, including end zones!

"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path..." (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this "object' as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected "future travel paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber's system attached to the "object", then the "vehicle".  Why didn't the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision?  If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren't they accurate?  Why was the object classified as a "Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?  Why did it change classifications?  How often was the classification of this object done.  Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object.  In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a "pedestrian"when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber's Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)

"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.

"...According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. ..." NTSB:  Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle behavior Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating " "erratic vehicle behavior".  This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber system's false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.

"...The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. " Wow!  If Uber's system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past "Peak valuation".

"...The system is not designed to alert the operator. " That may be the only good part of Uber's design.  In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don't waste your time.  If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast 30 and the 24 edition of SmartDrivingCar, See below. Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail

Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto

Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving

announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles

Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1.  Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark.  Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain

---