8.22 - Network Car

May 22, 2020Newsletter archive →

edition of the 8th year of SmartDrivingCars

Technology driving safer transport

H. Zhao, May 1, "This edition of ITU News Magazine discusses the latest trends in connected cars, new

ITU initiatives to improve smart transportation — and key insights from the annual Symposium

on the Future Networked Car (FNC‑2020), a gathering of top experts hosted by ITU and UNECE. Participants at the 5 March event discussed the technical, business and regulatory actions required to build public trust in connected, automated vehicles.

They highlighted the state of the art in automotive cybersecurity. Together, they explored the status

and future of safety-critical radio‑ communications for the road, and they presented the latest developments in the review of regulations governing road transport.

FNC‑2020 participants also had the opportunity to consider the crucial role of the latest 5G connectivity technologies in delivering safer and more effective transport.  Read on to learn about the experts' insightful discussions at the event, how ITU's work is supporting the development of Intelligent Transport Systems —

and what key industry players are doing to leverage the power of ICTs for better transport."  Read more

Hmmmm... This topic will be at the heart on the next Zoom-Tank Zoom-inar on June 1 (or June 15??)@ 2PM. An eloquent summary of this topic/symposium was presented by Michael Sena in his April 2020 edition of The Dispatcher. Alain

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 157 - Grayson Brulte

F. Fishkin, May 21, "Global auto makers must completely re-think their autonomous mobility strategy as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. So says innovation strategist Grayson Brulte of Brulte & Company....who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Waymo, Tesla, Uber and more." "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 157 - Grayson Brulte

Video version of SmartDrivingCars PodCast 157 -  .... Alain

The Smart Driving Cars podcast is made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO.   For more information: www.motoetf.com.

SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 002  The Future of

Public Roadway Transit

(Will the Bus be Thrown Under the Bus?)

• Zoom-inar Video (Video replay)Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit

• SmartDrivingCar PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit

New Roman""> SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 003 Connected Cars:  Maximizing Society's Welfare (aka  Communism) or Maximizing the Individual's Welfare (aka Capitalism) Live:  Monday, June 1, 2:00pm New York Time

Free Pre-registration is required

Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates Jump 14% in March Despite Quarantines, Says National Safety Council

Press release, May 20, "Preliminary estimates from the National Safety Council show that as Americans began driving less and covering fewer miles, the emptier roads became more lethal. Early data indicate a year-over-year 14% jump in fatality rates per miles driven in March, in spite of an 8% drop in the total number of roadway deaths compared to March 2019. The actual number of miles driven dropped 18.6% compared to the same time period last year. The mileage death rate per 100 million vehicle miles driven was 1.22 in March compared to 1.07 in March 2019.

Through the first three months of 2020, the following states have experienced notable increases in the number of roadway deaths: Arkansas (16%), California (8%), Connecticut (42%), Illinois (11%), Louisiana (23%), Nevada (10%), New York (17%), North Carolina (10%), Oklahoma (9%), Tennessee (6%) and Texas (6%).

States with notable decreases include Arizona (-4%), Hawaii (-32%), Idaho (-28%), Iowa (-13%), Maryland (-13%), Michigan (-12%), Oregon (-24%) and South Carolina (-12%)...."    Read more 

Hmmmm...I  didn't expect that... the fatalityRate increasing so much.  14% is a big number.   What will it be April '20 v April '19?   Are alcohol sales responsible? Anxiety/stress??

The naive policy implications of this is that congestion is good if your primary policy objective is Safety.  However, in "2008" VMT went down, but no where near as much as it has gone down in March (and April, and ...)  I'm surprised that VMT was down only 18.6, but, of course, I'm sitting here in a bubble in New Jersey and driverless cars are everywhere...   just sitting in people's driveways and garages all day long with no place to go :-). Alain

Waymo CEO on how the Covid-19 pandemic could affect ride sharing long-term

P. LeBeau, May 22,"John Krafcik, CEO of Waymo, joins CNBC's Phil LeBeau and "Squawk Box" to discuss how ride sharing services and autonomous vehicle development could be affected by the Covid-19 pandemic."  See video 

Hmmmm... Well worth watching.  While safety is indeed a fundamental necessity of this technology, it is a shame that he doesn't emphasize the mobility opportunities that this technology can deliver to the mobility disadvantaged. That may be because Waymo today is focused on operating in communities where there are few mobility disadvantaged . It seems as if those on the margin are not their current customer set.  They should really think about serving diverse communities such as Trenton NJ rather than just those that today are dominated by upper end overly entitled individuals that already have more than enough great ways to get from where they are to where they want to go.  Alain

Top safety official at Waymo self-driving unit stepping down

D. Shepardson, May 21, "Alphabet Inc's Waymo self-driving unit said on Thursday that its chief safety officer, Debbie Hersman, was stepping down but would remain as a consultant to the company.  Hersman, the former chair of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), joined the company in 2019 to oversee its product safety program.

"We can confirm that Debbie has decided to return to her family home on the east coast and will continue on as a consultant to Waymo," the company said in a statement...."   Read more 

Hmmmm... Given Waymo's  essentially perfect safety record, Debbie and everyone else at Waymo has done a great job.  Again, safety is absolutely necessary in the roll out of this technology.  Without it being perceived to be safe, the technology is DoA! Perception of safety is actually tougher than safety because it needs to not only be safe, but overcome fears, anxiety and the "made-up stuff". Alain

GM Super Cruise is evolving into Ultra Cruise, for hands-off city driving

Reuters, May 19, "GM has a "big team" working on an advanced version of its hands-free driving assistance system, Super Cruise, that will expand its capability beyond highways and apply it to city streets, the automaker's vice president of global product development Doug Parks said Tuesday.

GM is also continuing to improve its existing Super Cruise product, Parks said during a webcasted interview at Citi's 2020 Car of the Future Symposium.   "As we continue to ratchet up Super Cruise, we continue to add capability and not just highway roads," Parks said, adding that a separate team is working on the hands-free city driving product known internally as "Ultra Cruise."

"We're trying to take that same capability off the highway," he said. "Ultra cruise would be all of the Super Cruise plus the neighborhoods, city streets and subdivisions. So Ultra Cruise's domain would be  essentially all driving, all the time."..."  Read more 

Hmmmm...Keep reading.  There is no doubt GM is working on this, but given the caution exhibited by a Pre-Covid-19 GM,  this may be largely Click-Bait.  But given the pressure of Tesla and the Covid-19 Pause, a more progressive GM may emerge to save itself.  Why isn't plain old Super-cruise not "standard" across all models???  It is a very good system.  Alain

Waymo's AI uses vectors to predict pedestrian, cyclist, and driver behavior

K. Wiggers, May 14, "Called VectorNet, it ostensibly provides more accurate projections while requiring less compute compared with previous approaches.

Anticipating road agents' future positions is table stakes for driverless cars, which by definition must navigate challenging environments without any human supervision. As tragically illustrated by the March 2018 collision involving an autonomous Uber vehicle and a bicyclist, perception is critical.   ... Wait a minute... Uber's code explicitly disregarded stationary objects in the lane ahead (because of false positives). ... Without it, self-driving cars can't reliably make decisions about how to respond in familiar — or unfamiliar — scenarios.

That's where VectorNet comes in. Unlike the convolutional neural networks it replaced, which operated on computationally expensive pixel renderings of maps, VectorNet ingests each map and sensor input in the form of vectors (sketches made up of points, lines, and curves based on mathematical equations)..."  Read more 

Hmmmm... Wasn't Waymo using "Vectors" to describe the road and objects ahead before they went to CNNs? Also, Aren't the vectors in a coordinate system relative to the nose of the vehicle rather than in some fixed global system,  Thus "centimeter accuracy" is "overkill" since the vector control points are not and don't need to be that precise. "10 centimeter accuracy is just fine thank you. No???? Alain

Here's how NYC is using powerful UV light to kill the coronavirus on subways and buses

A. Hawkins, May 20, "The Metropolitan Transportation Authority launched its pilot to use powerful ultraviolet lamps to disinfect New York City's subways and buses.

The agency says it will deploy 150 mobile devices to clean subways, buses, and subway stations as part of the first phase of the pilot. The second phase will focus on MetroNorth and Long Island Rail Road commuter trains. The MTA says it will spend $1 million on the project, according to NY1.

The effort is part of a partnership between the MTA and Columbia University, which theorizes that UV light can be used to kill diseases on the transit system. The MTA is using the devices during its nightly cleaning procedures, for which it took the unprecedented step of shutting down the entire subway system for four hours every evening....

The dual-headed lamps were purchased from a Denver-based startup Puro Lighting, which says its UV lights "have efficacy against Class 2 and 3 viruses, including coronaviruses, SARS, Influenza and Ebola."... ". Read more

Hmmmm.... Let's hope it works. If it does, then I suspect that it will "easy" to arrays of these lights in vehicles.  Likely "easier/cheaper" than putting all the airbags in cars.  50 years ago, who would have thought that airbags would proliferate the interior of all cars? Alain

How Covid-19 preselects the winners in the race for autonomous vehicles

C. Lichtmannecker, May 11, "... But what kind of OEM board is now willing to allocate lots of its resources to a futuristic, complex robotaxi vision — a decade away before becoming relevant in market size and not yet proven to be viable? Who is opting for high technological, regulatory and competitive risks — when at the same time being responsible for hundreds of thousands of employees and their respective families? In his book, Clayton Christensen concludes that great, well-managed firms don't miss out to stay ahead of the game because they made 'bad' decisions during crisis, but because making logical decisions may turn out to be the wrong thing to do after all — hence dilemma.

Even being aware of this Covid-19 quandary, it is now harder than ever for OEMs to uphold an ambidextrous business management which not only focuses on the core business but takes into account the long-term transition of the industry. A lot of these tough decisions must be made in the next weeks and months in OEM board rooms. In the context of AVs, they now run the risk of slowing down and waiting until market, technology and regulation are more mature — a strategy that gives way for other players to push them aside. ...

Why is time advantage in AV development and roll-out important? And why can losing time now — by delaying and stretching investments for a couple of years — determine winners and losers?

There is evidence that companies rolling-out their technology earlier will have significant first-mover advantages over later entrants. This is due to the fact that network-effects are at work when it comes to learning and increasing autonomous driving functionality (there is a brilliant article on this topic). In the next years, this may not be too critical since most driverless vehicles will only be deployed in pilot environments with limited operational design domain (meaning designed to only properly operate on certain roads and in a very limited service area) and without facing real competition... "  Read more 

Hmmmm... Thoughtful presentation.   The "Gartner Expectation" curve is somewhat useful but doesn't map into sales/revenue/adoption/marketPenetration/... ??   Alain

Grayson Btulte @gbrult

G. Brulte, May 20, "As the global auto industry prepares for a significant uptick in car sales, auto companies must completely rethink their autonomous mobility strategy...." Listen to PodCast,   

Hmmmm... Put in more Safe-driving Car technology. Alain

Here's how NYC is using powerful UV light to kill the coronavirus on subways and buses

A. Hawkins, May 20, "The Metropolitan Transportation Authority launched its pilot to use powerful ultraviolet lamps to disinfect New York City's subways and buses.

The agency says it will deploy 150 mobile devices to clean subways, buses, and subway stations as part of the first phase of the pilot. The second phase will focus on MetroNorth and Long Island Rail Road commuter trains. The MTA says it will spend $1 million on the project, according to NY1.

The effort is part of a partnership between the MTA and Columbia University, which theorizes that UV light can be used to kill diseases on the transit system. The MTA is using the devices during its nightly cleaning procedures, for which it took the unprecedented step of shutting down the entire subway system for four hours every evening....

The dual-headed lamps were purchased from a Denver-based startup Puro Lighting, which says its UV lights "have efficacy against Class 2 and 3 viruses, including coronaviruses, SARS, Influenza and Ebola."... ". Read more

Hmmmm.... Let's hope it works.  Alain

Tesla installs more production robots at Fremont factory

F. Lambert, May 14, "Tesla is installing more production robots at its Fremont factory in order to increase capacity, according to new construction permits.:.

What I am really curious about is Tesla's annual production capacity by the end of next year with Fremont, Berlin, Shanghai, and Austin.  It will be such a different landscape for Tesla's production than the current situation.  My own guess is Tesla will have an overall annualized production capacity of 1 million cars by the end of 2021... " Read more

Hmmmm... If you can't be using the facility, you might as well update it. Alain

Americans still don't trust self-driving cars

A. Hawkins, May 19, "Self-driving cars are having a really rough time gaining our trust.

This is not a total shock considering autonomous vehicles remain theoretical and elusive for most people. The limited number of self-driving cars on the road today are mostly test vehicles that aren't available to the riding public. Combine that with Americans' very, shall we say, complicated feelings toward concepts like "freedom" and "control," and you can see where this is going. Digging on technology in the streets, control freaks in the sheets.... ". Read more

Hmmmm.... Actually, the more surprising number is that 25% think that AV tech is ready for prime time, since few of that 25% has ever seen one or ridden in one (unless the survey was extremely biases).  Alain

CLEARING THE CONFUSION:  Recommended Common Naming for Advanced Driver Assistance Technologies

May 2020, "Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have become increasingly prevalent on new vehicles, but the terminology used by automakers to describe them varies widely and so far has focused on marketing

strategies.

The common naming outlined is simple, specific and based on system functionality. The list is meant to aid in

reducing driver confusion and define the functions of ADAS in a consistent manner. This is critical to ensure

that drivers are aware these systems are designed to assist, not replace an engaged driver. ...Fantastic...

The list is not meant to replace automaker proprietary system or package names, but rather help identify key

functions within those packages and provide clarity to consumers. The list will be continually refined as we

work with other stakeholders and as new systems are developed. ..."  Read more

Hmmmm...What??? OEMs get to use whatever name they wish for whatever!?  Who is going to use these names and who is going to do the translation between the OEM names and this terminology? Am I still going to need a PhD in Linguistics to understand what is in the car that someone is trying to sell to me?   Is there a VIN code associated with each of these so that the customer knows which one of these features is in a particular car?  (I know the answer.  I'm just being nasty.)

Since this is only for ADAS (although the headline is ... ADAT (Can't even use consistent terminology throughout this fundamental document  ), it must only apply to SAE "Level 2" vehicles.  While this may help the naming, it doesn't suggest performance measures for the features. Engines have horsepower, torque and fuel consumption measures.  These systems seem to have no measures.  Alain

Transportation Leaders Across the Country Report 50-to-90% Reduction in Traffic and Revenues Due to COVID-19

B. Cramer, May 21, "...During the briefing, national, state and regional transportation leaders discussed how COVID-19 social distancing and stay-at-home measures have led to the reduction in traffic and revenues of upwards of 90 percent, impacting the industry, the American driving public, our roads and bridges, and the future of transportation in the country.

"If this were any other year, we would be talking about Memorial Day traffic, one of the busiest travel weekends of the year. Instead, we are talking about the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on our nation's economy and our daily lives. Since the middle of March our members' toll facilities have seen traffic and revenue declines of 50 to 90 percent," said Patrick D. Jones, executive director and CEO of IBTTA...."  Read more

Hmmmm... No places to go, Stay-cation! Alain

How coronavirus is accelerating a future with autonomous vehicles

Baidu, May 18, "..."Having been through the pandemic and supported the front line, we realize 'automation' and 'intelligence' are the best solutions for humans to respond to large-scale emergencies," said Zhenyu Li, corporate vice president and general manager of the Baidu Intelligent Driving Group.

Baidu, one of the leaders in autonomous vehicle technology, has released 104 driverless vehicles in 17 cities across the country. These autonomous vehicles are helping carry out frontline anti-epidemic work such as cleaning, disinfecting, logistics, and transportation with support from partner companies. ..."  Readmore

Hmmmm... . How much did Baidu pay MIT Tech for this paid placement/advertisement ? Alain

New Roman"">    DraftPrinceton SmartDrivingCar Summit Postponed until Evening Oct. 20 through Oct. 22, 2020 A. Kornhauser, Feb 6, "The focus of the Summit this year will be moving beyond the AI and the Sensors to addressing the challenges of Commercialization and the delivery of tangible value to communities.  We've made enormous progress with the technology. We're doing the investment; however, this investment delivers value only if is commercialized: made available and is used by consumers in large numbers.  Demos and one-offs are "great", but to deliver value that is anywhere near commensurate with the magnitude of the investment made to date, initial deployments need to scale.  We can't just have "Morgantown PRT Systems" whose initial deployment has been nothing but enormously successful for 45 years (an essentially perfect safety record, an excellent availability record and customer valued mobility).  Unfortunately, the system was never expanded or duplicated anywhere.  It didn't scale.  It is a one-off.

Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale.  In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va.  which became the reference for many other cites.  "... By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague's equipment had been begun or planned on several continents..." Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology.  It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.

In part, the 4th Summit will focus on defining the "Richmond" of Affordable Shared-ride On-demand Mobility-as-a-Service.  The initial Operational Design Domain (ODD) that safely accommodates Driverless Mobility Machines that people actually choose to use and becomes the envy of communities throughout the country. " Read more

Hmmmm... Draft Program is in flux. Consider all named individuals as "Invited yet to be confirmed". Alain

C'mon Man!(These folks

didn't get/read the memo)

Sunday

Supplement

Half-Baked

Click-Bait

Calendar of

Upcoming Events:s

New Roman""> SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 003 AV Shark-Tank:

Connected Vehicles: System-Optimum v Use-Optimum?

Live June 1 or 15 @ 2pm New York Time

Register Here

---

until Evening Oct. 20 -> Oct 22.

SmartDrivingCar Summit

Princeton University Princeton, NJ

On the More Technical Side

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 156 - Danny Shapiro2

F. Fishkin, May 14, "With new hardware and software capabilities NVIDIA is expanding into new areas of driver assistance technology. Sr. Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Waymo, Voyage, Ford and more. listen and subscribe!" "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 156- Danny Shapiro2

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 155 - Alex Roy2

F. Fishkin, April 29, "The continuing impact of Covid-19 on autonomous vehicle progress. But it may not be all bad news. Alex Roy...host of the No Parking Podcast and Director of Special Operations at Argo AI....joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Intel, Lyft, Uber and more. Listen and subscribe!"

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 155- Alex Roy2

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 154 - Dan Sperling

F. Fishkin, April 29, "Can ride sharing rebound after the pandemic? Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo, Ford and more." "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-inar 001 The Driverless New Normal Debate

• Zoom Video

• SmartDrivingCar PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Driverless New Normal Debate

• Zoom Audience Questions (Only a few were addressed in Zoom-inar)

• Zoom Audience Comments

• YouTube Video

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 154- Dan Sperling

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 153 - Dick Mudge2

F. Fishkin, April 17, "The plummeting price of oil and what it may mean for mobility, ride sharing and the economy.. Dick Mudge, founder and president of Compass Transportation & Technology joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus GM, Uber and more on the Coronavirus impact."

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 153- Dick Mudge2

Smart Driving Cars Pod-Cast Episode 152 - Brad Templeton

F. Fishkin, April 17, "Can robotaxis survive a pandemic? Internet pioneer, self driving car consultant and author Brad Templeton joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in a wide ranging chat on the impact today and the future. Plus...Uber, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla and more." "

Smart Driving Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 152 - Brad Templeton

Smart Driving Cars Pod-Cast Episode 151- Joe Moye

F. Fishkin, April 9, "In the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic, fully autonomous, driverless vehicles are carrying medical supplies and Covid-19 tests to the Mayo Clinic in Florida. They're provided by Beep and the CEO, Joe Moye, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that, plus the latest from Nuro, Tesla and more." ...  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 151 - Joe Moye

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 150 - Andrei Greenawalt

F. Fishkin, April 3, "Coronavirus devastates transportation and mobility. How does it recover? Matthew Daus, former NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission chairman, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and much more. Watch,  subscribe,

...  Alain

Smart Driving Cars VideoCast Episode 150 - Andrei Greenawalt

Video version... Watch episode 150 with Andrei Greenawalt....  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 149 - Matt Daus

F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, "The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also...Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!" ... Alain

Smart Driving Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 149 - Matt Daus Video version... Watch episode 149 with Matt Daus.... Alain

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop

F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, "The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also...Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!" ...  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop Video version... Watch our first attempt....  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, Mar. 14, "From Sweden...The Dispatcher editor Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin as Covid-19 takes a toll on Waymo, Uber and more. Plus Saving the Car Industries in the U.S. and the EU... the latest from Future Networked Car 2020 in Geneva and more." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 145 - L. Walker

F. Fishkin, Mar. 5, "Tackling the issues of children in autonomous vehicles, Lorrie Walker of Safe Kids Worldwide joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest from Waymo, Tesla, GM, Uber, Lyft and more." ... Alain Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes

F. Fishkin, Feb 15, "What shifting populations mean for the future of mobility and transportation. Leading expert Jim Hughes of Rutgers University joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Tesla, GM, Comma AI's inexpensive autopilot, Aptiv, Lyft and more. Tune in and subscribe! "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy

F. Fishkin, Feb 7, "The latest glossary of BS in mobility, self driving and autonomy from author, podcaster and cannonball driver Alex Roy on Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the news from Tesla, Nuro, Waymo, GM and more! " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 140 - C. Mericli

F. Fishkin, Jan 31, "How self driving tech can increase profits in the trucking industry. Locomation's CEO joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Waymo's partnership with UPS, Tesla's rocket ride, Hyundai's Smart Park Super Bowl ad and more.  " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O'Toole

F. Fishkin, Jan 25, "Adaptive cruise control and self driving tech may lead to more urban sprawl. But the Cato Institute's Randal O'Toole says maybe that isn't a bad thing. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Subaru's tech, GM's Cruise, Tesla and more on the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This edition is sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information…head to www.motoetf.com "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart

F. Fishkin, Jan 18, "The new mobility on the ground and in the air. Nicolas Zart joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for a discussion on Urban Air Mobility...plus..Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Mobileye, Waymo and more in this edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136

F. Fishkin, Jan 6, "He's back! Princeton's Alain Kornhauser...still on the mend ...but opinionated as ever...joins co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the latest from Waymo, Tesla and more in Episode 136 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson

F. Fishkin, Dec 5, "In this special edition... the launch of a new exchange traded fund focused on smart transportation and technology.   Guinness Atkinson Asset Management CEO Jim Atkinson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus..a push by the Coalition for Future Mobility for action in Washington, AutoX wants driverless testing in California and Aptiv grows in Pittsburgh. "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, Nov. 1, "An updated outlook for automated vehicles...Tesla, Waymo , Ford, VW and more. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by guests Michael Sena and Dick Mudge in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 126 - Sturges & Caudill F. Fishkin, Sept 19 , "From the public library in Princeton, NJ... a special edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast following a public forum conducted by Princeton Future on the potential for transit on demand for all. Join Princeton professor Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and special guests for that...plus...the latest on Waymo, Tesla, Hyundai, Aptiv and more. " Pictures from the Princeton Future Public Forum on Driverless  Mobility for All.

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 121 - Ken Pyle F. Fishkin, Aug 22 , "Daimler and Bosch hold a community meeting in San Jose as they ready plans for autonomous vehicle testing. Community board member Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Waymo, Tesla and more."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 116 - Jerome Lutin F. Fishkin, July 20, "Can technology dramatically improve the safety of bus transportation for pedestrians, riders and drivers? The lead investigator in a national study, Jerry Lutin,  joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on episode 116 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Plus...Tesla's new safety report, the latest from Lyft, Aptiv and a NY Times report on why driverless cars are taking longer than expected. Tune in and subscribe!."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM F. Fishkin, June 9, "Should the insurance industry be pushing more safety and autonomous tech in cars? It's a win, win says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser. Joining him in the discussion along with co-host Fred Fishkin is NJM's John Hardiman, a board member of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Also...Fiat Chrysler, Ford and more."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot F. Fishkin, May 25, " The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus...Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup

F. Fishkin, May 18, "Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It's just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit Leilei Shinohara & Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell

F. Fishkin, May 18, "In this special edition from the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit, Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by RoboSense VP Leilei Shinohara on the LiDAR's benefits. And view of autonomous technology from law enforcement with New York State Police

Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley

F. Fishkin, May 18, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, David Kidd from the Highway Loss Data Institute joins Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin and then on site preliminary research results on mobility for all with Cecilia Feeley and Andrea Lubin from Rutgers."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund

F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 100 - Andrei Greenawalt'99/Via

April 5, F. Fishkin, "The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena'69

March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 81 -nVIDIA, Shapiro & Local  Motors / Olli, Hodge

F. Fishkin,  Jan. 9,  "How NVIDIA is paving the way for self driving cars and a new OLLI automated transport from Local Motors. NVIDIA's Senior Director for Automotive, Danny Shapiro and Kurtis Hodge of Local Motors join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for another edition of Smart Driving Cars from CES 2019.."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55

F. Fishkin,  Dec. 13,  "When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says "Not so fast."  The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui

F. Fishkin, Nov 29,  "What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 68 - Dick Mudge

F. Fishkin, Nov 22,  "The insurance industry hears about the outlook for automated vehicles. Co-author Dick Mudge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 68 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Uber, GM Cruise, Waymo, VW and more. Tune in and subscribe!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV F. Fishkin, Nov 1,  "California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state's deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles

F. Fishkin, Sept 22  "In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety...and a champion racer. Beyond that....he's an old high school friend of Alain's! And there's more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy

F. Fishkin, Sept 6,  "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"

Recent Highlights of:

Luminaries Battle In Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate About The Future Of Self-Driving Cars Lance Eliot, April 28, "Several self-driving car luminaries assembled online via a Zoom-casted battleground this week to undertake a Lincoln-Douglas style debate about the future of the Autonomous Vehicle (AV) self-driving car industry and the advent of AI-driven mobility.

Originally scheduled for one hour, the dialogue and fielding of audience questions prompted the superstars to keep going, tackling many of the most vexing and unsolved matters that underlie the potential success of self-driving vehicles, encompassing both autonomous cars and autonomous trucks.

The lively discussion was civil and polite, fortunately so in these times of seemingly stark polarization and guttural attacks during our contemporary public discourse. Yet, even in the realm of eloquent argumentation, at times the gloves came off and there were some fierce zingers and moments of rather piercing cut-the-air-with-a-knife verbal sparring..." Read more

Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for the kind and thorough synopsis of our 1st Zoom-inar.  We were all pleased by the turnout, interaction and substance. Alain

What Negative Oil Prices Mean and How the Impact Could Last V. Bajaj, April 22,"A main benchmark for the price of oil fell negative for the first time ever this week. The decline — more than 300 percent in daily trading — raised fresh questions about the damage the coronavirus is having on the global economy.

What does it mean for oil prices to be negative?

A benchmark price for a barrel of oil to be delivered next month fell to -$37.63 on Monday, which means that sellers would have to pay someone that much to take it off their hands.

But that historic plunge was exacerbated by a quirk in how the oil markets work.

The negative price concerned only contracts for delivery of barrels in May that are traded on so-called futures markets. At the same time trading happens for May deliveries, people trade on contracts ending in June, in July and so on." Read more

Hmmmm... What???  I realize that I'm often "out of it", but...  In all my life I have NEVER... thought of, let alone mentioned, nor have heard anyone else mention the concept of negative oil! Often, talked about $150/B oil, $250/B, S20/B even $7/B oil. NEVER $0/B oil, negative Oil... NEVER,NEVER, NEVER!!!!  and look where we are.  UNBELIEVABLE!!! Implications:... no one's models extrapolate to that regime. (it requires extrapolation because no data exists in this unimaginable region. Listen to Pod-Cast; Watch Zoom-Cast  Alain

Can Robotaxis Survive A Pandemic?

B. Templeton, April, 13, "Almost all the self-driving car fleets are out of operation right now. The primary reason is that testing these cars is not an "essential service" and so the safety drivers who supervise them are not allowed to come to work. Most companies use a team of two people in each car, which would create a disease risk, and to top it off, the roads are empty and this unnaturally easy, making testing less valuable.

Questions arise about what happens in the robocar world if we need to suffer another pandemic in the future. The Covid-19 crisis took place before the commercial deployment of robocars, but that won't be true later. I covered some issues in my article on delivery robots, but let's consider what we've learned this year: Uber/Lyft LYFT and Taxi rides are way, way down, and not just because all travel is way down

• Transit ridership has cratered, and service has been cut

• Delivery demand has vastly increased

• People worry if drivers might be infectious

• People don't want to touch things, from seats to scooter handlebars, that others are touching

All travel is way down, but people are particularly suspicious of travel with other people, be it transit, or riding with a driver. They are also concerned about sitting down in a vehicle where somebody else just sat. With parking plentiful, there are incentives to go back to using your own car even if you previously used something else. Scooter services like Lime and Bird have also suffered major declines.

As noted in the delivery article, while delivery robots are always good in a time when there is a massive surge in demand for delivery, it's pretty easy for a driver in a van with an automatic door to never have to touch the packages, just like a delivery robot. With massive unemployment, human driven vans are probably the best answer to the delivery demand surge...."  Read more

Hmmmm... Not a pretty picture, but with every challenge, comes opportunities... Listen watch more on Pod-Cast_152/Zoom-Cast_152. Alain

Autonomous shuttles help transport COVID-19 tests at Mayo Clinic in Florida

Press release, April, 2, "For the first time in the U.S., autonomous vehicles are being used to transport medical supplies and COVID-19 tests at Mayo Clinic in Florida.

At a time when health care resources and staff are stretched thin, the Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA) has partnered with Beep and NAVYA to use autonomous vehicles to safely transport COVID-19 tests collected at a drive-thru testing location at Mayo Clinic in Florida.

"This development is a historic moment for the Jacksonville Transportation Authority," says Nathaniel P. Ford, Sr., CEO of Jacksonville Transportation Authority. "Along with our partners, Beep, NAVYA and Mayo Clinic, we are leveraging our learnings from three years of testing autonomous vehicles through our Ultimate Urban Circulator program. Our innovative team saw this as an opportunity to use technology to respond to this crisis in Northeast Florida and increase the safety of COVID-19 testing."..." Read more

Hmmmm... While not mentioned in the article, they are operating Driverlessly... without attendant or safety driver.  Yea!!!  (People aren't being moved, just goods and the Operational Design Domain is constrained, but it it is driverless none the less!)  Listen watch more on Pod-Cast_151/Zoom-Cast_151. Alain

Via raises Series E financing to expand access to efficient, sustainable, and equitable public mobility across the globe Press release, Mar. 30, "Via, the company that provides digital infrastructure to power public mobility in cities around the world, announces today that it has raised a Series E financing led by EXOR. The financing values the company at $2.25B and will enable Via to advance its vision of efficient, accessible, and equitable public mobility.

Via's technology powers the next generation of public transportation, helping cities move beyond a system of rigid routes and schedules to a fully dynamic network. Via's algorithm efficiently combines, in real time, multiple passengers or packages headed in the same direction, significantly reducing urban congestion and emissions while providing a high quality and lower cost mobility service. Available in more than 70 cities in 20 countries, and growing rapidly..."  Read more

Hmmmm... Ride-sharing may not be dead.  Listen to PodCast 150, watch VideoCast 150 Alain

Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19

D. Hall, Mar 25, "... The result in late March 2020 has been one where a confluence of risks has come together. Additional operational and financial risks may emerge as additional events compound on the current situation. Actuaries will be watching for any additional risk events that layer on to the current environment, especially ones that may cause additional property, mortality and health risks such as catastrophic weather events. Morbidity, mortality, asset/liability management and operational risks are all a part of the initial and evolving story. This update to the Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key continuing and new features of the pandemic all around the world and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work..." Read more

Hmmmm... This is one of the best reports that I have seen and will be updated every 10 days or so.   A good summary of the materials, podcasts and other good sources are here:

https://www.soa.org/resources/newsroom/covid-19-updates/#research

https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2020/impact-coronavirus/

ECDPC Daily data GitHub Covid19 data

Cases of COVID-19

Alain

Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead?

R. Bishop, Mar 24, "I met Stefan Seltz-Axmacher for the first time in November 2015 at the Florida Automated Vehicles Summit. Not long after, we met at the Blue Danube coffee shop in Alameda, CA so he could tell me about his vision for Starsky Robotics. When he energetically described his remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. "Remote driving is hard," I said. "The military has struggled with this for years. Its harder than it looks." On the technical side, latency for secure communications is challenging. On the operational side, re-creating enough on-road reality (situational awareness) for a remote driver is difficult when going for the high levels of safety needed. Seltz-Axmacher remained bullish on the approach and at that time went on to found Starsky Robotics as one of the earliest truck AV startups, later closing a $16.5M Series A funding round in March 2018, and then hauling freight while developing both remote and automated driving ability. Initially, Starsky's concept was all about remote driving for first/last mile. They later expanded their offering to include fully automated highway driving on limited freight corridors.

Now, Starsky has become the first casualty within a crowded truck automation space, and Seltz-Axmacher has provided us with an intriguing post-mortem in a recent Medium post. Most of the media coverage I've seen has acted as echo chambers for Seltz-Axmacher's perspective. Here I offer a counterpoint based on my longtime involvement in truck automation plus discussions with many others in the truck Automated Driving Systems (ADS) startup space, many of them irate at what they see as unfounded assertions made in the original post. My sources tell me that because Seltz-Axmacher hasn't experienced their technology nor been briefed on their technical/safety approach, he has no basis to make sweeping claims about the entire industry...." Read more

Hmmmm... Listen to PodCast 148. or/and Watch us on YouTube.  Alain

Waymo suspends robotaxi service except for its truly driverless vehicles K. Korosec, Mar. 17, "Waymo  said Tuesday it is pausing operations of Waymo One, a service in the Phoenix area that allows the public to hail rides in self-driving vehicles with trained human safety operators behind the wheel, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Waymo is also halting testing on public roads in California.

However, Waymo will keep some operations up and running, notably its truly driverless vehicles, which don't require a human safety driver, according to an announcement on its website Tuesday. These driverless vehicles are used in the Phoenix area as part of Waymo's early rider program that lets vetted members of the public hail a ride..."   Read more Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the latest is not so good... Waymo has suspended all services, including the driverless. Poopie!!! Alain

WAYMO DRIVERS SAY THEY'RE BEING DISCOURAGED FROM CANCELING ROBOTAXI RIDES DURING CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK

A. Hawkins, Mar. 13, "Waymo,Waymo, the self-driving unit of Alphabet, says it will keep operating its fleet of roughly 600 self-driving taxis in Arizona during the novel coronavirus outbreak. But the safety drivers who monitor the autonomous taxis are concerned that they are being put in harm's way.

Waymo is "strongly encouraging" its full-time employees without "business critical" tasks to work from home. Its safety drivers, who are employed by a French transit company called Transdev North America that has a multiyear contract with Waymo, are still mostly required to come into work, The Verge has learned. Transdev appears to be following guidelines set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) by stepping up the frequency of its cleanings and disinfections. But drivers tell The Verge that the Waymo vendor is ignoring recommendations about social distancing.

"It feels like the drivers are treated like second class citizens, having to report to work and serve 'hails' while the full-time employees are required to work from home to stay safe," said a Waymo driver who requested anonymity in order to speak freely. "Safety for some."..."  Read more

Hmmmm... I thought that Waymo had started offering rides without safety drivers in Chandler???? I guess, they do it in a "smaller" Operational Design Domain (ODD) and they are trying to expand that ODD by operating with safety drivers for trip originating and or terminating outside that original "smaller" ODD.

Anyway... I often use the elevator to try to understand autonomousTaxis... driverless mobility machines.  Will we look back to this complaint by attendants as the turning point which hasten Waymo's operation of its vehicles without attendants on-board much as the elevator operator's strike in NYC in September 1945 hasten the deployment of automated elevators (see Pushing the right Buttons)?   As I've been writing, the biggest challenge of Uber/Lyft is management of its drivers. It looks like Waymo is experiencing the same challenges with its attendants. Moreover,  a NECESSARY condition on economic viability is safely operating without a driver/attendant. We may look back and credit COVID-19 as hastening Waymo's deployment of driverless mobility for all.  This may be COVID-19's only positive contribution to society.    Alain

March 6, 2020

Call to Action on Children in Autonomous Vehicles Feb. 2020, "The Blue Ribbon Panel on Children in Autonomous Vehicles is calling on developers of autonomous vehicles (AVs) to ensure that AVs are engineered, deployed and marketed to protect the unique needs of child passengers. Developers are broadly defined to include original equipment manufacturers, non-original equipment manufacturers, as well as designers of component systems such as LIDAR, chip or satellite manufacturers, and others building key components of AVs.

AVs must be developed, regulations upgraded and laws passed to ensure children will be properly restrained, have the highest level of protection in a crash, and can be appropriately supervised during a trip. This panel believes it is imperative that minor children never be transported without appropriate supervision by a parent, guardian or caregiver until best practices are adopted.

We're asking developers to commit to the following actions: ... "  Read more

Hmmmm... Given that one of the largest mobility marginalized groups are individuals that are too young to drive, including the very young that require supervision as well as those that are old enough to ride alone, this focus group is very important and very pertinent. Alain

February 28, 2020

NTSB slams Tesla, Apple and regulators over a fatal Autopilot crash

R. Mitchell, Feb. 25, "The nation's top safety investigator slammed Tesla on Tuesday for failing to take adequate measures to prevent "foreseeable abuse" of its Autopilot driver-assistance technology, in a hearing into the fatal 2018 crash of a Tesla Model X SUV in Mountain View, Calif.

The National Transportation Safety Board said 38-year-old Walter Huang, an Apple software engineer, had Autopilot engaged in his 2018 Tesla Model X and was playing a video game on his iPhone when the car crashed into a defective safety barrier on U.S. Highway 101.The board also blamed the highway safety arm of the U.S. Department of Transportation for failing to properly regulate rapidly evolving robot-car technology.... The board adopteda long list of measures meant to reduce such accidents as "partially automated driving" technologies become more popular in new vehicles.... Sumwalt made clear the Mountain View crash was not an isolated incident, but illustrative of the safety issues involved as humans and robot systems increasingly share the driving, not just in Teslas but in vehicles from all manufacturers. "It's time to stop enabling drivers in any partially automated vehicle to pretend that they have driverless cars," he said.

.......  the Model X drove straight down the middle of a "gore lane," a white-striped zone where cars aren't supposed to go," ... It is clear from the images that the gore area was NOT white-striped as is supposed to be and the lane markings are badly worn.  Why didn't NTSB fault the CA DoT for its poor maintenance and marking practices.  CA DoT needs to be severely reprimanded. " ... a Toyota Prius crashed into it 11 days earlier..." to what extent did NTSB investigate the Prius crash.  It didn't have autoPilot, so that's not the common factor.  I suspect that the confusing lane markings and the lack of striping is the root cause... " ... The car's collision avoidance system did not detect the crash barrier." ... I suspect that this is NOT true.  The system detected the stationary object, but the coded logic disregards stationary objects (classifies them as false alarms) because false positives are too likely. NTSB made a similar error in the Joshua Brown crash where the system didn't mis-identify the stationary trailer ahead as being background sky, but instead classified the stationary object in the lane ahead as a false positive . NTSB investigators have failed to ask the right questions in these investigations...

" ....The car's forward collision warning system did not provide an alert, and the automatic braking system did not activate."... Again, the system classified stationary objects in the lane ahead as phantom objects and disregards them.  Once disregarded, there is no reason to initiate a warning or apply Emergency Brakes. Yipes! Read more

Hmmmm... Hopefully this will curtail the misbehavior in the use of these systems.  The Self-driving systems require constant adult supervision. I suspect that NHTSA will place extraordinarily onerous regulations on personally owned self-driving cars that will effectively ban the ability to sleep, play video games, text or otherwise be non-vigilant in all non-driverless vehicles. Driverless vehicles will be required to be operated and maintained by a responsible fleet manager and not have any straight forward way for a human to drive them. Certainly no steering wheel or pedals.  I expect that they'll also ban the use of Stupid-Summon-like systems outside of one's own personal property.  They should. Alain

February 15, 2020

"Urbs," "Burbs," and the Immigration Locomotive

J. Hughes, Feb 2020, "Even more so than the nation, the broad fourstate, 35-county metropolitan region centered on New York City (figure 1) is becoming afflicted by a condition of demographic stagnation. While the United States has been experiencing the lowest population growth rates since the Great Depression, the region has only recently (2016–2018) slipped into absolute population decline, spawned by domestic outmigration. The major counterforce forestalling a demographic catastrophe has been positive international migration. Immigration has become the primary source of population growth—the demographic locomotive. Without it, the region would have to bear fully the economic consequences of what has become a virtual domestic population hemorrhage—a vast exodus of regional residents moving to the rest of the country. This is just one dimension of endemic demographic change that has swept the post–Great Recession world....

The second new reset is a turnaround of the pattern evidenced in the 2010–2016 period, when population growth in the "urbs" surpassed that of the "burbs." After dominating growth early in the decade (2010–2016), the core—the urban heart of the metropolitan region encompassing New York City and three adjacent counties in New Jersey—suddenly slipped into decline post-2016, causing the region as a whole to lose population. This is the latest transformation in what has become a transmillennial demographic roller coaster ride... "   Read more

Hmmmm... Most interesting Demographic Dynamic.   A must read. Alain

February 7, 2020

NHTSA Grants Nuro Exemption Petition for Testing Low-Speed Driverless Vehicle

January 31, 2020

2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about 'Smaht Pahk' S. Szymkowski, Jan 27, "Hyundai is going all in on Boston accents and the 2020 Sonata for its Super Bowl advertisement. As is often the trend these days, the ad made its debut on Monday less than a week before the big game, but it's quite a clever spot...."  Read more

Hmmmm...  This is as irresponsible of Hyundai as StupidSummon is for Tesla.  It may even be more irresponsible because Hyundai hasn't included the over-the-air-information system that allows them to monitor its use. Having the car do stuff without an alert and attentive driver in the driver's seat implies liability on them (their system) if something bad happens. Plus, squeezing a car into a parking place when the people can't get into the adjacent cars is not the smartest move unless you've also made the Hyundai key proof.  There will be retaliation.  Alain January 24,

The Disengagement Myth Kyle Vogt, Jan 17, "In a few weeks the California DMV will release disengagements data from Cruise and other companies who test AVs on public roads. This data is really great for giving the public a sense of what's happening on the roads. Unfortunately, it has also been used by the media and others to compare technology from different AV companies or as a proxy for commercial readiness. Since it's the only publicly available metric, I don't really blame them for using it. But it's woefully inadequate for most uses beyond those of the DMV. The idea that disengagements give a meaningful signal about whether an AV is ready for commercial deployment is a myth. ..."  Read more

Hmmmm... Amen!   This is a MUST read.  As with everything, details matter.  It is true that figures don't lie, but but it is easy to game systems such that figures, without the underlying details, do lie.  As Kyle points out, there are important details associated with disengagements. These need to be well understood for disengagements to be a proxy for safety and market readiness. The when, where and associated details of each disengagement is critically important if the objective is safety and market readiness.

What is also most important here is the underlying objective of the companies doing the tests and reporting the data.  As has happened in our secondary education where students are taught what is in and how to take the SATs rather than just learn. The objective is not learning , but getting 800s on the SATs so that they can get into 'Princeton'. This is perpetuated by the 'Princetons' of this world that don't look into the details of the student's academic qualities and capabilities. In the academic world, we know these students as 'box checkers', gamers of the college admission process.  The gaming is continued by the 'banks and med schools' that use simplistic GPA (Grade Point Average, aka 'disengagements') cutoffs.  The 'box checkers' then take 'underwater basket weaving' courses and become grade grubbers. It is lazy and irresponsible to use simplistic measures as proxies to very complex concepts such as intelligence, creativity, compatibility, and all the other details that make a good student, a good employee, a good citizen, a good mobility system.

In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig".  It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.

I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD.  Each will demand that it be safe.  The board will also demand that it be profitable.  What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? Alain

Hmmmm... Reflections

A. Kornhauser, Jan 12,   

Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding.  I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard.  It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell.  Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s.  The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded.  As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile.  Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl.  Alain

January 6, 2020

Back

A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6,   

Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers.  They each helped.  I'm looking to making a full recovery.  Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor.  I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere.  Alain

November 30, 2019   Chandler unveils drop-off, pick-up zone for self-driving cars G. Zetino, Nov. 25, ""It's about to get easier for self-driving cars to drop off and pick up passengers in Chandler.   The city of Chandler, in partnership with Waymo, on Friday unveiled the nation's first drop-off and pick-up zone for autonomous ride-hailing cars.

Read more 

Hmmmm... The iconic image:

autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain.  The first of what may well become a half million or so others.  Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility).  Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M  aTaxi stops.  Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile.  This is a MAJOR 1st.  Alain

November 23, 2019 Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida R. Wile, Nov 22, "Sen. Jeff Brandes (R-St. Petersburg) had just finished serving in the Army, and was looking to make a name for himself in Tallahassee as a junior representative. He came across a talk given by the founder of Google's driverless car project.

He quickly realized the potential of self-driving cars to transform many aspects of daily life. Ever since, he has made it his mission to turn Florida into what he calls "an angel investor" in automation policy. "We want to have policies in place for this technology to flourish," Brandes said in an interview at the 7th Annual Florida Automated Vehicles conference in Miami, which concluded Friday.

Brandes has drawn headlines in the tech community for filing legislation allowing virtually any automated vehicle on Florida's roads; this summer, he helped make Florida one of the first states to make AVs without a human back-up safety driver street legal.

Among the state's advantages Brandes points to that he believes makes it ideal for AV companies: no snow, which makes lane markings more visible. That also means less road construction in general...."  Read more 

Hmmmm... Congratulations Jeff!!! It was a great AV Summit and congratulations on creating such a Welcoming environment and intelligently shaping the birth of this technology.  What you've done is enable Florida to begin to enhance mobility and the quality of life for all in Florida  and especially those who can most benefit from these mobility machines.  It was most impressive to witness the enthusiasm for nurturing the many aspects of this technology from Florida's Governor, Miami's Mayor, Fl DoT's Commissioner, the heads of the toll road authorities, planning agencies and educational institutions.  Most impressive was Ford's comment that their autonomousTaxi efforts are focused on developing driverless technology and intend to operate it to deliver Mobility-as-a-Service in Florida, rather than sell the technology to individual consumers.  I applaud that approach and hope that Ford will look to also bringing some of those vehicles to New Jersey so that we can begin to reap the benefits of this technology.  What you've accomplished in Florida is THE "best practice" for us to emulate in New Jersey. Congratulations.   Alain November 16, 2019

PyTorch at Tesla

November 1, 2019

An Update on the Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems

October 18, 2019

Waymo to customers: "Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way"

Your Tesla Can Now Pick You Up R. Mitchell, Oct. 4, " Smart Summon is for parking lot use. But drivers have other ideas.

Tesla unleashed the latest twist in driverless car technology last week, raising more questions about whether autonomous vehicles are outracing public officials and safety regulators.

...Using a smartphone, a person can now command a Tesla to turn itself on, back out of a parking space and drive to the smartphone holder's location - say at a curb in front of a Costco store.."  Read more

Hmmmm.... Russ, great article. A must read!

Elon, please stop.  StupidSummon was a bad Valley-entitled idea before you released it.  Now that it is out there it will ruin all that is good about Tesla, AutoPilot and Driverless cars.  The shorters are going to have a field day.

While you are at it also remove all of the DistractTainment add ons or limit their use when AutoPilot is NOT on and drivers are engaged in driving.  Just go back to V09!  Along the way also get the Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) system to work properly (See NTSBbelow).  To do that, maybe you should take a serious look at Velodyne's   new Tesla LiDAR.  It may be able to tell you if the stationary object in the lane ahead is high enough above the road surface before your AEB system decides to disregard it. Then Tesla's may stop decapitating drivers.

If you don't remove StupidSummon then at least be sure to limit its use to the Tesla owner's own private property by responsible users. (You know the GPS coordinates of where each owner lives, so you can geofence it.  You also know each irresponsible use (You get the videos).  Irresponsible use (use in the violation of the conditions spelled out in the user's manual) should void its future availability in that car unless proper amend are made. If not, then insurance companies should clearly state that insuring the use of this feature requires a substantial additional premium; else, you're not covered.  Courts should view that use of this feature implies premeditated harm and demonstrates an extreme indifference to human life. Parking Lot owners should install signs forbidding the use of this feature on their property to protect themselves from being dragged into the claims process.

What is most disturbing about this feature is that its only value is to enhance the self-perceived manhood of Entitled Silicon Valley XXs and may well cause the public sector to over react and ruin to opportunity of responsible driverless mobility to substantially enhance the quality-of-life of those who can't or choose not to drive a car, enhance the environment, subdue our energy use and reduce congestion.  Elon, shame on you September 28, 2019 Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton K. Knapp, Sept 22, "What would it take to make Princeton an accessible community for all, even those who cannot or choose not to own or drive a car? Princeton Future will explore the question at a public forum from 9 a.m. to noon on Sept. 28 in the community room at the Princeton Public Library.

Princeton Future is a non-profit community group that studies issues related to planning, development, and affordability. Speakers will discuss the capabilities of a transit-on-demand system where small, driverless shuttles could be summoned by a smart phone app to a location within walking distance of a resident's home...."  Read more

Hmmmm.... Listen to a summary of the event in Episode 126 of the SmartDrivingCars PodCasts. See below for other info. Alain September 20, 2019 Waymo's robotaxi pilot surpassed 6,200 riders in its first month in California

August 17, 2019

Autonomous Vehicles:  A View from Seniors

March 29, 2019

Automated vehicles could provide mobility to the 'mobility disadvantaged' March 1, 2019

FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT Lyft, Inc. Autonomous Vehicles Feb 25, " This workshop brought together experts in cyber-physical systems, machine learning, transportation engineering, and applied mathematics, both from academia and from industry, to help bridge the technical gaps and to facilitate exchange and collaboration across disciplinary boundaries..."  Read more

Hmmmm.... Slides and videos of the presentations are available here. In particular, see..:

• Andrea Censi: "Liability, Ethics, and Culture-Aware Behavior Specification using Rulebooks"  Abstract, Slides, video (via click on  Schedule 11:30 Monday;

• Adam Oberman:"Generalization and adversarial robustness of Regularized Deep Neural Networks " Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Tuesday);

• Alain Kornhauser: "Market Forces and Market Potential for SmartDrivingCars (aka Autonomous Vehicles) "  Slides,video, (via click on  Schedule 11:15 Tuesday);

• Hani Mahmassani: "Shared Autonomous Fleet Services and Multimodal Urban Mobility: Optimization, Prediction and Dynamic Network Modeling "  Abstract, video, (via click on  Schedule 4:00 Thursday);

Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems

New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles

Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors:  Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)

Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164 Sponsors:  Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)

Oct 16, Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14); Lampitt (D6)..."  Read more

Hmmmm.... Things are beginning to move in New Jersey. Alain

Testimony of Alain Kornhauser, Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM

Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM

New Roman"">Tuesday, June 12, 2018  CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS

New Roman"">Sunday, June 3, 2018

Waymo's fleet of self-driving minivans is about to get 100 times bigger

25,  2018 PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)

May 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.

...The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency

braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions for detecting driver alertness and road sign information. All these Volvo functions are disabled when the test vehicle is operated in computer control..."Read more

Hmmmm.... Uber must believe that its systems are better at avoiding Collisions and Automated Emergency Braking than Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo "off the hook".

"...According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph..." (= 63 feet/second)  So the system started "seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away... more than a football field, including end zones!

"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path..." (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this "object' as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected "future travel paths."  Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber's system attached to the "object", then the "vehicle". Why didn't the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision?  If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren't they accurate?  Why was the object classified as a "Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?  Why did it change classifications?  How often was the classification of this object done.  Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object.  In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a "pedestrian"when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber's Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)

"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.

"...According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. ..." NTSB:  Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle behavior Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating " "erratic vehicle behavior".  This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber system's false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.

"...The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. " Wow!  If Uber's system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past "Peak valuation".

"...The system is not designed to alert the operator. " That may be the only good part of Uber's design.  In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don't waste your time.  If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I SmartDrivingCar, See below. Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail

Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto

Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving

announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles

December 19, 2015 Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1.  Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark.  Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above!  Also see his TipRanks. Alain

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