Video
version of SmartDrivingCars
PodCast 163.... Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
Amazon, June 26, "Amazon has signed an agreement to acquire Zoox, a California-based company working to design autonomous ride-hailing vehicles from the ground up. Aicha Evans, Zoox CEO, and Jesse Levinson, Zoox co-founder and CTO, will continue to lead the team as they innovate and drive towards their mission....
"Zoox is working to imagine, invent, and design a world-class autonomous ride-hailing experience," said Jeff Wilke, Amazon’s CEO, Worldwide Consumer. "Like Amazon, Zoox is passionate about innovation and about its customers, and we're excited to help the talented Zoox team to bring their vision to reality in the years ahead."...
"Since
Zoox's
inception six
years ago, we
have been
singularly
focused on our
ground-up
approach to
autonomous
mobility,"
said Jesse
Levinson, Zoox
co-founder and
CTO. "Amazon's
support will
markedly
accelerate our
path to
delivering
safe, clean,
and enjoyable
transportation
to the
world."..." Read
more Hmmm... OK, but the original path to
"world-class
autonomous ride-hailing
experience" is
likely to be
changed to
first pass
through
"world-class
autonomous package
delivery
experience".
Amazon is now
not only in
control but
also THE
customer.
Ironically,
having the
primary
customer,
package
delivery,
drive the
product
development
may actually
accelerate the
successful
creation of a
world-class
affordable
mobility-as-a
service
machines.
Delivering
packages from
an Amazon
distribution
center or from
Whole Foods or
from ... to my
"front door"
has
substantially
easier
quality-of-service
and safety
challenges,
especially, if
in the
beginning, the
delivery
service is
done between
"1am and
5am".
Start
during those
times in your
Operational
Design Domain
(ODD),
continue to
improve,
expand to the
rest of the
day, enlarge
your ODD and
then you'll be
really ready
to begin
providing
affordable
high-quality
mobility to
those that
need it most
and everyone
else too.
See
also: CNBC
Amazon
to buy
self-driving
technology
company Zoox
Alain
B.
Templeton,
June 26,
"Reports have
emerged that
Amazon.com
will purchase
self-driving
startup Zoox
for “more than
$1.2B” with
exact details
of the deal
not disclosed.
Amazon says
they plan to
have Zoox
realize its
vision of
passenger
transport
(robotaxi)
service, which
I will dub
“AMAZOOX.” At
the same time,
it is hard to
believe they
don’t also
have interest
in robotic
delivery and
logistics,
since that’s a
huge part of
their
business.
I have already
done analysis
twice on this
deal — first
when Zoox
started
shopping,
and then when
Amazon was
revealed as
the suitor.
All the
analysis in
these articles
remains
similar.
Today, two
things become
fact — the
confirmation
of the deal
and Amazon’s
declaration
that they wish
to support the
robotaxi
vision..." Read
more Hmmm...
While I would
like to think
it is about
the aTaxi
business, to
me the main
driver is the
"free" package
delivery
business. A
substantial
part of
Amazon's
success is
built on
"free"
delivery.
Sure, Amazon
can
internalize
the cost of
such a
service, but
this
acquisition
can enable
them to move
much of that
internalized
cost directly
down to its
bottom line.
That is
fundamentally
powerful.
Alain
S. Gidigbi,
June 26,
"...But in the
larger quest
for justice,
there’s
another bill
on the agenda
that could
also be
crucial to
rectifying
some of the
20th century’s
most deeply
unfair
policies: A
transportation
funding bill
set for a vote
in the House
next week
would help
undo the
injustice
built into our
highways, our
roads and our
sidewalks.
At first
glance,
transportation
might seem
like a side
issue, but it
has been
central to the
inequality
debate in
America for
generations.
We often
gloss over it
today, but
much of the
civil rights
struggle
centered on
access to
public
transportation.
The
unfortunate
Plessy v.
Ferguson
Supreme Court
decision of
“separate but
equal” came
about because
Homer Plessy
was ejected
from a “whites
only” train
car and then
fought for his
rights in
court. Rosa
Parks’ protest
sparked the
Montgomery bus
boycott after
she refused to
give her seat
to a white
passenger
after a long
day of work.
Her resolve
united leaders
to demand
systemic
changes
including that
buses stop at
each street
corner in
Black
neighborhoods
just as they
did in white
ones. Black
residents
organized
carpools, an
early example
of ride-share,
and made the
long treks
across
segregated
neighborhoods
to avoid using
the city
buses, as
their yearlong
campaign
sought broader
civil rights
such as fair
access to jobs
and
opportunity.
Later, the
Freedom Riders
withstood
rogue violence
of stunning
ferocity to
get the
Southern
states to
uphold the law
and integrate
interstate bus
travel.
Transportation
spending
decisions have
also rewritten
the story of
American
communities
over the past
hundred
years—in ways
that cost
Black
communities
deeply and
benefited
white
neighborhoods....
It’s
time to divest
from the
racist legacy
of our past
and invest in
a more just
and equitable
future.... (emphasis added)
Transportation
is not a side
issue in our
national
reckoning with
race. ..." Read
more Hmmm... The
real
opportunity
for driverless
mobility
machines is to
deliver
high-quality
affordable
mobility to
the mobility
disadvantaged...
the largest
segment of
which are the
economically
disadvantaged.
The
Operational
Design Domains
(ODDs) of
these
should/must
begin by
encompassing
these
communities.
This is where
these
technologies
can deliver
the most
improvement in
quality-of-life and not those communities where everyone already has
"fourteen"
other great
ways of
getting to
where they are
going when
they want to
go. Alain
M.
Alderton, June
26, "Scott
Crawford
hasn’t driven
a car in 20
years. A
retired
clinical
neuropsychologist,
Crawford
relocated from
Miami to his
hometown of
Jackson,
Miss., in
2006, seven
years after
developing
primary
progressive
multiple
sclerosis.
When his
illness put
him in a
wheelchair,
the bus became
his lifeline —
that is, when
it didn’t
leave him
behind, which
happened often
and sometimes
still
does...." Read
more Hmmmm... I continue to be
dumbfounded by
Conventional
Transit's
complete
aversion to
autonomousTaxis
and
conventional
ride-hailing
(Uber/Lyft).
These are ways
for the
Transit
Industry to
deliver
"separate-but-enormously-better"
mobility to
the mobility
disadvantaged.
And do it at a
fraction of
the cost of
its
low-quality
conventional
bus services
and its
inaccessible
low-quality
"rail"
services.
Definitions: High-quality mobility takes
individuals
from where
they are to
where they
want to go
when they want
to go. Lo-quality
mobility
takes
individuals
between a few
(~20) long-ago
designated
locations
(stops) at a
few (~20)
designated
times.
Alain
More Hmmmm... from
Dr. Prashanth Venkataram.....For
wheelchair
access,
subways &
buses
generally have
complementary
problems. It
is easy to get
to the front
of a bus
without an
elevator, but
then getting
into the bus
requires a
ramp or lift,
which is a
point of
failure (and
note that
lifts, being
more
mechanically
complicated,
tend to be
more prone to
failure and
consequently
harder to
operate
manually than
ramps) and is
a substantial
cost
associated
with the
vehicle. By
contrast,
getting to a
subway
platform
typically
requires an
elevator
(unless there
is enough land
to allow for
long
gradually-sloped
floors), which
is a point of
failure
associated
with the
infrastructure
of a station,
but getting
from the
platform into
the train can
be done much
more easily.
Of course,
there are
exceptions:
many light
rail trains
require ramps
or lifts for
wheelchair
access, many
commuter/regional
rail trains
have gaps that
can only be
bridged by
virtue of
conductors on
board being
able to
manually find
ramps in
stations &
deploy them
(as the
allowable
dwell times
are long
enough), and
many subway
platforms have
gaps to the
train that are
too large to
bridge (and
the short
dwell times
& lack of
conductors
means the only
solution is
usually to
retrofit level
boarding by
rebuilding the
platform
appropriately,
which is quite
costly &
time-consuming),
while on the
flip side,
there are only
a few examples
(here is one
using existing
buses but
rebuilt
sidewalks: http://www.bostonbrt.org/everettbrt
) of buses
that allow for
level
boarding, and
even then only
at certain
stops where
the curbs have
been built in
tandem with
the bus design
to allow it.
Note also that
commitment to
wheelchair
access in
subway systems
doesn't
necessarily
correlate that
strongly with
the age of a
system. While
it's
reasonable
that the
Chicago L
& Boston T
aren't fully
accessible
because of
their ages,
they do far
better than
the NYC Subway
despite being
of a similar
age.
Similarly, the
BART &
Washington
Metro do far
better than
the Montreal
Metro, which
is of a
similar age
(that is much
less than the
Chicago L or
Boston T). (On
a side note
regarding the
Montreal
Metro: the
conscious
decision by
the designers
of the
Montreal Metro
in the
1960s/1970s to
ignore
wheelchair
access was not
restricted to
transit at
that time.
With respect
to housing,
there is an
undergraduate
dormitory at
MIT, known as
New House,
which was
built in the
1970s: during
its design,
budget
constraints
forced a
choice between
either
elevators or
air
conditioning,
and ultimately
the latter was
chosen without
the former.
Thankfully,
recent
renovations
have added
elevators.)
Taxi
regulations
typically
pushed taxi
companies to
have a certain
percentage of
the fleet be
wheelchair
accessible,
but the rise
of TNCs has,
especially in
smaller
markets,
forced many
taxi companies
to close
entirely, and
those that
don't close
often first
get rid of
their
wheelchair
accessible
vehicles, as
those tend to
be more
expensive to
operate &
requires
further
training of
drivers in
their
operation,
while TNCs
have been
unwilling to
fill the gap
in this way;
this is
especially
problematic in
exactly these
smaller
markets where
there are few
alternatives
to driving
just to get
around for
work or normal
errands.
You & I
already know
that while bus
services can
work in
moderately
dense areas
along certain
corridors at
high frequency
and with good
connectivity,
far more
economic
opportunities
can be opened
up to people
marginalized
by the current
transportation
paradigm,
including
people with
disabilities,
through
on-demand
point-to-point
service, and
this looks to
be most
promising if
the promises
of shared
driverless
mobility can
be realized.
However, the
aforementioned
problems with
current
designs for
wheelchair
access need to
be seriously
considered as
a core issue
with the
design of
driverless
vehicles, and
not simply as
an
afterthought;
at least if
problems
arise, it may
be cheaper to
take a single
relatively
cheap car from
a large fleet
out of service
compared to a
single
relatively
expensive bus
from a
comparatively
smaller fleet.
In addition to
questions of
physical
ingress/egress,
there also
needs to be
consideration
of whether
there are
certain
nontrivial
ways that
current
drivers help
wheelchair
users
enter/exit
vehicles
(whether cars,
vans, or
buses) that
may not have
an obvious
replacement if
the driver is
removed (and
this would be
especially
critical if
driverless
cars ended up
retaining but
automating
current
designs for
ramps/lifts),
and whether
safety
regulations
for
wheelchairs to
be secured in
vehicles
(which is
required for
cars, vans,
and buses, but
typically not
for trains due
to the more
centralized
nature of
control &
lack of
"other"
traffic, and
which, when
required, is
typically
performed by
the driver)
need to be
revisited.
Perhaps the
issues of
ingress/egress
from buses,
proposed
ingress/egress
from
driverless
cars, and
general
sidewalk
access can all
be addressed
through a
concerted
effort to
simultaneously
redesign
sidewalks,
redesign
buses, and
propose new
standards for
driverless
vehicles, to
allow for
level boarding
(without ramps
or lifts).
This would not
only ensure
that
wheelchair
users
currently
using buses
and who may in
the future use
driverless
vehicles can
access them
without any
assistance,
but it would
also improve
the experience
for
pedestrians,
speed up
entry/exit of
passengers
from buses
which will
improve the
overall
experience,
and further
mitigate
problems for
people who may
not be in
wheelchairs
but may have
knee pain, may
be pushing a
stroller, et
cetera. The
biggest
improvements
from investing
in level
boarding would
be removing
all of the
costs
associated
with
ramps/lifts
aboard buses
and generally
metaphorically
leveling the
playing field
for wheelchair
users compared
to able-bodied
riders, such
that a
wheelchair
user will
essentially
never be in a
situation of
being unable
to ride a bus
or driverless
car when an
able-bodied
rider can ride
the same
vehicle.
All of this
focuses on
wheelchair
users, but
there are
other
disabilities
to consider
too. Apps or
kiosks to
summon
driverless
cars, as well
as the
interfaces
within the
cars
themselves,
will need to
be designed to
accommodate
people with
low
vision/blindness,
as well as
people with
mild mental
disabilities
(an example
can be found
here:
https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/06/25/new-app-makes-mass-transit-accessible-to-people-with-cognitive-disabilities/
); for
example, cars
meant for
people with
mental
disabilities
may need to
have a more
"friendly"
face on a
screen and be
able to
respond
reasonably
patiently to
people with a
reasonably
large range of
cognitive or
speech
disabilities
to fulfill the
role that kind
drivers may
currently
play. People
who may not
need a
wheelchair but
may have other
medical
equipment to
transport with
assistance,
like a
portable
oxygen tank,
may currently
require driver
assistance as
well as
accommodation
inside of the
vehicle, so
these things
need to be
considered for
the design of
driverless
cars. (These
points are
more
speculation
from me, as I
have been
insulated from
these issues
in my own
experience.)
This is my
summary for
your
newsletter,
which I have
tried to
tailor to the
context of
driverless
mobility.
"This is a
solid summary
of the current
state of the
strengths and
weaknesses of
public transit
and TNCs when
it comes to
wheelchair
access. I've
been saying
that a lot of
the problems
with
fixed-route
transit
service or
expensive
&
unreliable
point-to-point
paratransit
service can be
solved through
on-demand
point-to-point
shared
driverless
mobility,
giving much
more mobility
& freedom
to those
currently
marginalized
from today's
transportation
systems at a
much lower
cost through
sharing and
through taking
the driver out
of the
equation.
However,
driverless
mobility
developers
can't simply
take it as
given that
their products
will be a
cure-all - we
can't rest on
our laurels!
Accessibility
MUST be a core
value, and
just like
safety, MUST
be included as
a high minimum
constraint in
the design
process
itself, NOT
just slapped
on as an
afterthought
which breaks
way too often
(which was how
we got into
our current
mess). It
would be good
if there could
be more
coordination
among
driverless
mobility
developers,
transit
agencies,
other city
agencies, and
disability
advocacy
groups,
preferably
with people
with
disabilities
not simply
confined to
such advocacy
groups but
actually
directly
advising
developers
&
agencies, to
thoughtfully
ensure
wheelchair
access for
current and
future
mobility,
through
vehicles,
physical
infrastructure,
and other
aspects of the
ride. Plus,
drivers today
do a lot to
help people
with other
disabilities,
including
those with
medical
equipment,
mental
disabilities,
and so on, so
those riders'
needs have to
be considered
too - they
can't be an
afterthought
either just
because they
don't have
easily-recognizable
wheelchairs!"
Prashanth
Company
News, June 25,
"On the path
to building
the World’s
Most
Experienced
Driver, we
partner with
some of the
world’s
largest
automakers to
realize our
mission to
make it safe
and easy for
people and
things to get
where they’re
going. We
focus on
custom
designing our
hardware
suite,
software, and
compute. We
then
collaborate
with
carmakers,
leveraging
their
expertise in
automotive
design,
engineering,
and
manufacturing,
to help us
create
vehicles that
integrate
easily with
the Waymo
Driver, making
them
well-suited
for ride
hailing, local
delivery,
trucking, and
personal car
ownership.
That’s why
we’re pleased
to share today
our latest
automotive
partnership.
Waymo is now
the exclusive
global L4
partner for
Volvo Car
Group, a
global leader
in automotive
safety,
including its
strategic
affiliates
Polestar and
Lynk & Co.
International.
Through our
strategic
partnership,
we will first
work together
to integrate
the Waymo
Driver into an
all-new
mobility-focused
electric
vehicle
platform for
ride hailing
services.
Adam Frost,
Chief
Automotive
Officer,
Waymo: “This
key
partnership
with Volvo Car
Group helps
pave the path
to the
deployment of
the Waymo
Driver
globally in
years to come,
and represents
an important
milestone in
the highly
competitive
autonomous
vehicle
industry.
Volvo Car
Group shares
our vision of
creating an
autonomous
future where
roads are
safer, and
transportation
is more
accessible and
greener. We’re
thrilled to
welcome Volvo
Car Group as
our latest
automotive
partner.”..."
Read
more Hmmm... Yes,
Waymo is in
the Driver
building
business and
not the Car
building
business. The
Car is
the commodity
here, not the
Driver.
Details
certainly
matter, but on
the surface,
this deal
seems to
benefit Volvo
much more than
Waymo. Plus,
Waymo may need
to be very
careful to not
get
Levandowshied
again.
See [log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="101"
height="18"> and Andrew Hawkin's take on this...Volvo
will use
Waymo’s
self-driving
technology to
power a fleet
of electric
robotaxis Alain
A. Hawkins,
July 1,
"Autonomous
trucking
startup
TuSimple is
joining forces
with big
logistics
providers as
it seeks to
bolster its
delivery
capabilities.
The company
announced it
will be
working with
UPS, Xpress
Enterprises,
Penske
Trucking, and
Berkshire
Hathaway-owned
grocery and
food-service
distributor
McLane to lay
the foundation
for a
coast-to-coast
autonomous
trucking
network.
TuSimple aims
to be making
nearly 100
delivery runs
a week,
doubling its
current number
of freight
hauls, but the
ramp-up will
take place
over the next
four years....
TuSimple is
aiming for a
fully
driverless
system, but
currently its
trucks include
a human
operator to
take over
driving when
needed. ... "
Read
more Hmmm... See promotional video. It is a
shame that
TuSimple does
not promote
the enhanced
driver working
conditions
that its
technology
provides today
but
instead
focuses on
only the
removal of the
driver at some
distant
future. By
that time all
the benefits
have been
discounted to
zero.
Whatever! :-X Alain
D. Wethe,
June 30,
"Tesla Inc.’s
market value
has surpassed
Exxon Mobil
Corp.’s in a
sign that
investors are
increasingly
betting on a
global energy
transition
away from
fossil fuels.
Elon Musk’s
Tesla, now at
$201 billion
in market
capitalization,
is surging on
the
billionaire’s
optimism that
his company
can avoid a
second-quarter
loss. Exxon,
which dropped
to $185
billion, is
reeling from
the worst
crude-price
crash in
history. The
largest oil
company in the
Western
Hemisphere is
preparing to
cut some of
its U.S.
workforce...."
Read
more Hmmm....
Whew!!! Who
would have
thought??
You can't make
up this
stuff! Alain
K.
Wiggers, June
30, "Today
during a
briefing with
members of the
media, Waymo
head of
commercialization for trucking Charlie Jatt outlined the company’s
go-to-market
plans for
Waymo Via, its
self-driving
delivery
division. In
the future,
Waymo will
partner with
OEMs and Tier
1 suppliers to
equip
cloud-based
trucks
manufactured
and sold to
the market
with its
autonomous
systems. In
addition,
Waymo will
work with
fleets to
provide its
software
services and
offer support
for things
like mapping
and remote
fleet
assistance.
As Waymo
transitions to
this model,
Jatt said that
Waymo intends
to own and
offer its own
fleet of
trucks — at
least in the
short term.
One of the
delivery
solutions it’s
exploring is a
transfer-hub
model where,
rather than an
automated
truck covering
an entire
journey, there
will be a mix
of an
automated
portion and a
portion
involving
manually
driven,
human-manned
trucks.
Automated
vehicle
transfer hubs
close to
highways would
handle the
switch-off and
minimize
surface street
driving.
In a first
step toward
this vision,
Waymo says it
will soon
expand testing
on roads in
New Mexico,
Arizona, and
Texas along
the I-10
corridor
between
Phoenix and
Tuscon, as
previously
announced.
This year
Waymo mapped
routes between
Phoenix, El
Paso, Dallas,
and Houston
and ramped up
testing in
California on
freeways in
Mountain View,
but the focus
for the rest
of 2020 will
be on the
American
Southwest. "
Read
more Hmmm... Once
again, Waymo,
along with
TuSimple may
well be
missing an THE
opportunity to
get started by
not focusing
on the human
driving
enhancement
features that
provide real
tangible value
to any
long-haul
truck fleet
(reduced
expected
self-insurance
expenditures,
improve driver
retention,
create happier
workforce,
improved
driver
productivity,
...) and
instead
focuses on the
extraction of
the driver
from the
truck. No one
is ready to
have
driverless
trucks
traveling long
hauls down
interstates.
Every
breakdown will
be a complete
fubar and the
first crash
will instantly
halt
everything and
substantially
devalue the
ranch. Whatever!
Alain
Staff, June
30, "In this
issue:
Staff,
December 2019,
"About 20
percent of
motor vehicle
crash deaths
result from a
vehicle
leaving the
roadway and
hitting a
fixed object
alongside the
road. Trees,
utility poles,
and traffic
barriers are
the most
common objects
struck. Almost
half of the
deaths in
fixed object
crashes occur
at night.
Alcohol is a
frequent
contributing
factor.
Motorists also
run off the
road because
of excessive
speeds,
falling
asleep,
inattention or
poor
visibility.
From 1975 to
the mid-2000s
there was a
general upward
trend in
deaths from
collisions
with animals,
but this trend
has leveled
off over the
past decade.
In 2018, these
deaths
occurred most
often during
July-September...."
Read
more Hmmm... Some
interesting
facts here
that rectify
some
statements
made in our Zoom-inar
(Video
replay) Insurance:
For or Against
SmartDrivingCars?
Alain
K.
Wiggers, June
30, "Roughly
three months
after the
pandemic
halted its
autonomous
vehicle tests,
Lyft today
announced its
safety
operators will
resume driving
a portion of
its cars on
public roads.
An
employee-only
autonomous
ride-hailing
pilot in Palo
Alto remains
on pause. But
in a blog
post, Lyft
director of
product Sameer
Qureshi and
director of
engineering
Robert Morgan
characterized
road testing
as a
“critical”
part of Lyft’s
driverless
systems
development.
In March,
Lyft’s safety
drivers —
along with
engineers and
developers —
were told to
stay home
until further
notice as
shelter-in-place
orders made
public road
testing
impossible. In
the interim,
the company
has leaned on
simulation to
further refine
its platform.
Autonomous
vehicle
developers
agree that
simulation
supplements
but can’t
replace
real-world
experience.
A spokesperson
said Lyft
would continue
to abide by
the U.S.
Centers for
Disease
Control and
Prevention
guidelines and
work with
local
governments in
deciding
whether to
pause testing
in the future.
This week,
governors in
Washington,
California,
Florida, and
Texas walked
back some of
their
reopening
plans as
COVID-19 cases
rose in more
than 30 states
across the
U.S.
Currently,
Lyft safety
drivers are
using personal
protective
equipment
(including
face shields)
and taking
precautionary
steps inside
the driverless
vehicles. Two
drivers will
be paired
together for
two weeks at a
time and
subject to
temperature
checks, and
separated by
partitions
installed
inside the
regularly
sanitized
cars... " Read
more Hmmm... OK, I guess. :-\
Alain
K.
Wiggers, June
30,
"Refraction
AI, a company
developing
semi-autonomous
delivery
robots, today
began handling
select
customers’
orders from
Ann Arbor,
Michigan’s
Produce
Station. This
marks the
startup’s
first foray
into grocery
delivery after
the launch of
its restaurant
delivery
service. The
move comes as
Refraction
reports a 3-4
times uptick
in
pandemic-related
demand....
Refraction
says from
today
customers
within a
three-mile
radius of
Produce
Station can
have orders
delivered by
its REV-1
robot. After
customers
order through
a dedicated
website,
Refraction’s
employees load
the vehicles
at the store,
and recipients
receive text
message
updates, along
with a code to
open the
robot’s
storage
compartment
when it
arrives.... "
Read
more Hmmm... OK, I guess.
Alain
[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.5&filename=lmjdiniodjkflpia.png" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" class="" width="46" height="52" border="0">
F. Fishkin, June
2, "But the debate
is not really
about technology
nor is it about
who delivers the
best value for the
money or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
Video version... Watch our first attempt.... Alain
F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund."
March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
Press
release, June
15,
"The U.S.
Department of
Transportation
today
announced nine
companies and
eight States
that have
signed on as
the first
participants
in a new
Department
initiative to
improve the
safety and
testing
transparency
of automated
driving
systems, the
Automated
Vehicle
Transparency
and Engagement
for Safe
Testing (AV
TEST)
Initiative.
The
participating
companies are
Beep, Cruise,
Fiat Chrysler
Automobiles,
Local Motors,
Navya, Nuro,
Toyota, Uber,
and Waymo.
The States are
California,
Florida,
Maryland,
Michigan,
Ohio,
Pennsylvania,
Texas, and
Utah.
“Through this
initiative,
the Department
is creating a
formal
platform for
Federal,
State, and
local
government to
coordinate and
share
information in
a standard
way,” said
U.S.
Transportation
Secretary
Elaine L.
Chao. ...
This
initiative
aligns with
the
Department’s
leadership on
automated
driving system
vehicles,
including AV 4.0: Ensuring American
Leadership in
Automated
Vehicle
Technologies."
Read
more Hmmm...
Excellent.
This is really
good because
it is promotes
and organizes
the open
sharing of
safety
information
assoiated with
automated
driving.
This is
extremely
important
because safety
of these
systems is a
necessary
condition for
their
adoption.
Unfortunately, a few things seem to be missing from the
announcement.
R. Dale Hall, June 12, "...By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines...." Read more Hmmm... Excellent! An enormous amount here. See especially FIg 11 and 17. These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, ... An enormous amount to digest here. Excellent. Alain
M.
Sena, May 26,
"Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
has three
facets. Two of
them are
mainly of
interest to
vehicle OEMs
and their
suppliers.
They are
vehicle-centric
and
customer-centric.
Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency
notification,
logistics
tracking and
over-the-air
updating.
Customer
centric
connectivity
includes many
services that
are also
provided by
mobile apps
outside of the
vehicle, such
as music
streaming,
workshop
service
booking,
traffic
notifications
and car
sharing
applications.
Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
today is a
major
competitive
factor for the
OEMs.
The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it....
Lance
Eliot, April
28, "Several
self-driving
car luminaries
assembled
online via a
Zoom-casted
battleground
this week to
undertake a
Lincoln-Douglas
style debate
about the
future of the
Autonomous
Vehicle (AV)
self-driving
car industry
and the advent
of AI-driven
mobility.
Originally
scheduled for
one hour, the
dialogue and
fielding of
audience
questions
prompted the
superstars to
keep going,
tackling many
of the most
vexing and
unsolved
matters that
underlie the
potential
success of
self-driving
vehicles,
encompassing
both
autonomous
cars and
autonomous
trucks.
The lively
discussion was
civil and
polite,
fortunately so
in these times
of seemingly
stark
polarization
and guttural
attacks during
our
contemporary
public
discourse.
Yet, even in
the realm of
eloquent
argumentation,
at times the
gloves came
off and there
were some
fierce zingers
and moments of
rather
piercing
cut-the-air-with-a-knife
verbal
sparring..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for
the kind and
thorough
synopsis of
our 1st
Zoom-inar. We
were all
pleased by the
turnout,
interaction
and substance.
Alain
V.
Bajaj, April
22,"A main
benchmark for
the price of
oil fell
negative for
the first time
ever this
week. The
decline —
more than 300
percent in
daily trading
— raised fresh
questions
about the
damage the
coronavirus is
having on the
global
economy.
What does it
mean for oil
prices to be
negative?
A benchmark
price for a
barrel of oil
to be
delivered next
month fell to
-$37.63 on
Monday, which
means that
sellers would
have to pay
someone that
much to take
it off their
hands.
But that
historic
plunge was
exacerbated by
a quirk in how
the oil
markets work.
The negative
price
concerned only
contracts for
delivery of
barrels in May
that are
traded on
so-called
futures
markets. At
the same time
trading
happens for
May
deliveries,
people trade
on contracts
ending in
June, in July
and so on." Read
more Hmmmm... What??? I realize that
I'm often "out
of it",
but... In all
my life I have
NEVER...
thought of,
let alone
mentioned, nor
have heard
anyone else
mention the
concept of negative
oil!
Often, talked
about $150/B
oil, $250/B,
S20/B even
$7/B oil.
NEVER $0/B
oil,
negative
Oil...
NEVER,NEVER,
NEVER!!!! and
look where we
are. UNBELIEVABLE!!!
Implications:...
no one's
models
extrapolate to
that regime.
(it requires
extrapolation
because no
data exists in
this
unimaginable
region.
Listen to Pod-Cast;
Watch Zoom-Cast
Alain
R. Bishop,
Mar 24, "I met
Stefan
Seltz-Axmacher
for the first
time in
November 2015
at the Florida
Automated
Vehicles
Summit. Not
long after, we
met at the
Blue Danube
coffee shop in
Alameda, CA so
he could tell
me about his
vision for
Starsky
Robotics. When
he
energetically
described his
remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. “Remote driving is
hard,” I said.
“The military
has struggled
with this for
years. Its
harder than it
looks.” On the
technical
side, latency
for secure
communications
is
challenging.
On the
operational
side,
re-creating
enough on-road
reality
(situational
awareness) for
a remote
driver is
difficult when
going for the
high levels of
safety needed.
Seltz-Axmacher
remained
bullish on the
approach and
at that time
went on to
found Starsky
Robotics as
one of the
earliest truck
AV startups,
later closing
a $16.5M
Series A
funding round
in March 2018,
and then
hauling
freight while
developing
both remote
and automated
driving
ability.
Initially,
Starsky’s
concept was
all about
remote driving
for first/last
mile. They
later expanded
their offering
to include
fully
automated
highway
driving on
limited
freight
corridors.
Now, Starsky
has become the
first casualty
within a
crowded truck
automation
space, and
Seltz-Axmacher
has provided
us with an
intriguing
post-mortem in
a recent
Medium post.
Most of the
media coverage
I’ve seen has
acted as echo
chambers for
Seltz-Axmacher’s
perspective.
Here I offer a
counterpoint
based on my
longtime
involvement in
truck
automation
plus
discussions
with many
others in the
truck
Automated
Driving
Systems (ADS)
startup space,
many of them
irate at what
they see as
unfounded
assertions
made in the
original post.
My sources
tell me that
because
Seltz-Axmacher
hasn't
experienced
their
technology nor
been briefed
on their
technical/safety
approach, he
has no basis
to make
sweeping
claims about
the entire
industry...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Listen
to PodCast 148.
or/and Watch
us on YouTube.
Alain
K. Korosec,
Mar. 17,
"Waymo said
Tuesday it is
pausing
operations of
Waymo One, a
service in the
Phoenix area
that allows
the public to
hail rides in
self-driving
vehicles with
trained human
safety
operators
behind the
wheel, in
response to
the COVID-19
pandemic.
Waymo is also
halting
testing on
public roads
in California.
However, Waymo
will keep some
operations up
and running,
notably its
truly
driverless
vehicles,
which don’t
require a
human safety
driver,
according to
an
announcement
on its website
Tuesday. These
driverless
vehicles are
used in the
Phoenix area
as part of
Waymo’s early
rider program
that lets
vetted members
of the public
hail a
ride..." Read
more Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the
latest is not
so good... Waymo has suspended all services, including
the
driverless.
Poopie!!!
Alain
Kyle
Vogt, Jan 17,
"In a few
weeks the
California DMV
will release
disengagements
data from
Cruise and
other
companies who
test AVs on
public roads.
This data is
really great
for giving the
public a sense
of what’s
happening on
the roads.
Unfortunately,
it has also
been used by
the media and
others to
compare
technology
from different
AV companies
or as a proxy
for commercial
readiness.
Since it’s the
only publicly
available
metric, I
don’t really
blame them for
using it. But
it’s woefully
inadequate for
most uses
beyond those
of the DMV.
The idea that
disengagements
give a
meaningful
signal about
whether an AV
is ready for
commercial
deployment is
a myth. ..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Amen! This is a MUST
read. As with
everything, details
matter. It is
true that
figures don't
lie, but but
it is easy to
game systems
such that
figures,
without the
underlying
details, do
lie. As Kyle
points out,
there are
important
details
associated
with
disengagements.
These need to
be well
understood for
disengagements
to be a proxy
for safety and
market
readiness. The
when, where
and associated
details of
each
disengagement
is critically
important if
the objective
is safety and
market
readiness.
What is also most important here
is the
underlying
objective of
the companies
doing the
tests and
reporting the
data. As has
happened in
our secondary
education
where students
are taught
what is in and
how to take
the SATs
rather than
just learn.
The objective
is not
learning , but
getting 800s
on the SATs so
that they can
get into
'Princeton'.
This is
perpetuated by
the
'Princetons'
of this world
that don't
look into the
details of the
student's
academic
qualities and
capabilities.
In the
academic
world, we know
these students
as 'box
checkers',
gamers of the
college
admission
process. The
gaming is
continued by
the 'banks and
med schools'
that use
simplistic GPA
(Grade Point
Average, aka
'disengagements')
cutoffs. The
'box checkers'
then take
'underwater
basket
weaving'
courses and
become grade
grubbers. It
is lazy and
irresponsible
to use
simplistic
measures as
proxies to
very complex
concepts such
as
intelligence,
creativity,
compatibility,
and all the
other details
that make a
good student,
a good
employee, a
good citizen,
a good
mobility
system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig". It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? AlainA. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSight is standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="79" height="131">
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
R.
Wile, Nov 22,
"Sen. Jeff
Brandes (R-St.
Petersburg)
had just
finished
serving in the
Army, and was
looking to
make a name
for himself in
Tallahassee as
a junior
representative.
He came across
a talk given
by the founder
of Google’s
driverless car
project.
He quickly
realized the
potential of
self-driving
cars to
transform many
aspects of
daily life.
Ever since, he
has made it
his mission to
turn Florida
into what he
calls “an
angel
investor” in
automation
policy. “We
want to have
policies in
place for this
technology to
flourish,”
Brandes said
in an
interview at
the 7th Annual
Florida
Automated
Vehicles
conference in
Miami, which
concluded
Friday.
Oct 16, Establishes
fully autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors: Zwicker
(D16); Benson
(D14)
Oct 16, Establishes
New
Jersey Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors: Benson
(D14); Zwicker
(D16); Lampitt
(D6)
May
24, "About 9:58
p.m., on Sunday,
March 18, 2018,
an Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo XC90
and operating
with a
self-driving
system in
computer control
mode, struck a
pedestrian on
northbound Mill
Avenue, in
Tempe, Maricopa
County, Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory equipped
with several
advanced driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars, the
original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City Safety,
as well as
functions for
detecting driver
alertness and
road sign
information. All
these Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test vehicle
is operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As
the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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