8.28 - Henry
edition of the 8th year of SmartDrivingCars
Announcing 2020-2021 Fellow-in-Residence Henry L. Greenidge, Esq.
Press release, June 24, "The McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy and Research at New York University has announced transportation policy expert Henry L. Greenidge, Esq. as a 2020-2021 Fellow-in-Residence. ...
"As New York City and cities around the nation reopen amid COVID-19, there is an important conversation to be had about the intersection of transportation policy with poverty, race and class. In a field where there are too few thought leaders of color, Henry Greenidge's industry expertise and distinguished track record of public service make him an invaluable addition to the NYU McSilver team," says Michael A. Lindsey, PhD, MSW, MPH, Executive Director of the institute.
"Race and transportation have been inextricably linked since the first slave ship crossed the Americas," says Henry Greenidge. "As our nation continues to grapple with institutional racism, which serves as the fabric for every facet of the United States, the inequities of transportation policies must be at the center. I am humbled and excited to be working with the McSilver Institute to unpack how transportation, race, and poverty intersect.." Read more
Hmmm.... In no uncertain terms, we must make sure that inequities and racism are not explicitly nor even implicitly baked into the SmartDrivingCar r/evolution. We are still at the very beginning, so it shouldn't be hard nor expensive but so far it doesn't look good. The emphasis has been on giving those that already have fantastic ways to get around one more way. The focus hasn't been on the mobility disadvantaged and certainly not on the Black community. Just look where the testing has been taking place and the folks that take part in the focus groups and those that are given rides. Look at who designs and writes the software and the investors. Sure, one can and should serve them, but if public policy is going to play a role, then it can't bake in more inequities. Moreover, the private sector can also step up and realize that these systems can readily serve everyone. The technology that makes SmartDrivingCars possible is not inherently racists. It can respect and serve everyone. Henry and others can help make sure that the designers and deployers of SmartDrivingCars don't explicitly nor implicitly bake in racism and bias. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 163 - Henry Greenidge
F. Fishkin, July 2, "Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. ." "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 163 - Henry Greenidge
Video version of SmartDrivingCars PodCast 163.... Alain
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
Princeton Will Remove Woodrow Wilson's Name From School
B. Pietsch, June 27, "Princeton University will remove Woodrow Wilson's name from its public policy school and one of its residential colleges, the university's president said on Saturday — a move that comes four years after it decided to keep the name over the objections of student protests.
The university's board of trustees found that Wilson's "racist thinking and policies make him an inappropriate namesake for a school or college whose scholars, students and alumni must stand firmly against racism in all its forms," Princeton's president, Christopher L. Eisgruber, said in a statement.... " Read more
Hmmm... Fantastic! Alain
We're acquiring Zoox to help bring their vision of autonomous ride-hailing to reality
Amazon, June 26, "Amazon has signed an agreement to acquire Zoox, a California-based company working to design autonomous ride-hailing vehicles from the ground up. Aicha Evans, Zoox CEO, and Jesse Levinson, Zoox co-founder and CTO, will continue to lead the team as they innovate and drive towards their mission....
"Zoox is working to imagine, invent, and design a world-class autonomous ride-hailing experience," said Jeff Wilke, Amazon's CEO, Worldwide Consumer. "Like Amazon, Zoox is passionate about innovation and about its customers, and we're excited to help the talented Zoox team to bring their vision to reality in the years ahead."...
"Since Zoox's inception six years ago, we have been singularly focused on our ground-up approach to autonomous mobility," said Jesse Levinson, Zoox co-founder and CTO. "Amazon's support will markedly accelerate our path to delivering safe, clean, and enjoyable transportation to the world."..." Read more
Hmmm... OK, but the original path to "world-class autonomous ride-hailing experience" is likely to be changed to first pass through "world-class autonomous package delivery experience". Amazon is now not only in control but also THE customer. Ironically, having the primary customer, package delivery, drive the product development may actually accelerate the successful creation of a world-class affordable mobility-as-a service machines. Delivering packages from an Amazon distribution center or from Whole Foods or from ... to my "front door" has substantially easier quality-of-service and safety challenges, especially, if in the beginning, the delivery service is done between "1am and 5am".
Start during those times in your Operational Design Domain (ODD), continue to improve, expand to the rest of the day, enlarge your ODD and then you'll be really ready to begin providing affordable high-quality mobility to those that need it most and everyone else too.
See also: CNBC Amazon to buy self-driving technology company Zoox Alain
Amazon Buys Self-Driving Company Zoox For $1.2B And May Rule The World
B. Templeton, June 26, "Reports have emerged that Amazon.com will purchase self-driving startup Zoox for "more than $1.2B" with exact details of the deal not disclosed. Amazon says they plan to have Zoox realize its vision of passenger transport (robotaxi) service, which I will dub "AMAZOOX." At the same time, it is hard to believe they don't also have interest in robotic delivery and logistics, since that's a huge part of their business.
I have already done analysis twice on this deal — first when Zoox started shopping, and then whenAmazon was revealed as the suitor. All the analysis in these articles remains similar. Today, two things become fact — the confirmation of the deal and Amazon's declaration that they wish to support the robotaxi vision..." Read more
Hmmm... While I would like to think it is about the aTaxi business, to me the main driver is the "free" package delivery business. A substantial part of Amazon's success is built on "free" delivery. Sure, Amazon can internalize the cost of such a service, but this acquisition can enable them to move much of that internalized cost directly down to its bottom line. That is fundamentally powerful. Alain
How Planes, Trains and Automobiles Worsened America's Racial Divide
S. Gidigbi, June 26, "...But in the larger quest for justice, there's another bill on the agenda that could also be crucial to rectifying some of the 20th century's most deeply unfair policies: A transportation funding bill set for a vote in the House next week would help undo the injustice built into our highways, our roads and our sidewalks.
At first glance, transportation might seem like a side issue, but it has been central to the inequality debate in America for generations.
We often gloss over it today, but much of the civil rights struggle centered on access to public transportation. The unfortunate Plessy v. Ferguson Supreme Court decision of "separate but equal" came about because Homer Plessy was ejected from a "whites only" train car and then fought for his rights in court. Rosa Parks' protest sparked the Montgomery bus boycott after she refused to give her seat to a white passenger after a long day of work. Her resolve united leaders to demand systemic changes including that buses stop at each street corner in Black neighborhoods just as they did in white ones. Black residents organized carpools, an early example of ride-share, and made the long treks across segregated neighborhoods to avoid using the city buses, as their yearlong campaign sought broader civil rights such as fair access to jobs and opportunity. Later, the Freedom Riders withstood rogue violence of stunning ferocity to get the Southern states to uphold the law and integrate interstate bus travel.
Transportation spending decisions have also rewritten the story of American communities over the past hundred years—in ways that cost Black communities deeply and benefited white neighborhoods....
It's time to divest from the racist legacy of our past and invest in a more just and equitable future.... (emphasis added)
Transportation is not a side issue in our national reckoning with race. ..." Read more
Hmmm... The real opportunity for driverless mobility machines is to deliver high-quality affordable mobility to the mobility disadvantaged... the largest segment of which are the economically disadvantaged. The Operational Design Domains (ODDs) of these should/must begin by encompassing these communities. This is where these technologies can deliver the most improvement in quality-of-life and not those communities where everyone already has "fourteen" other great ways of getting to where they are going when they want to go. Alain
Nearly 30 years after the ADA, the nation's transit agencies report successes and shortfalls
M. Alderton, June 26, "Scott Crawford hasn't driven a car in 20 years. A retired clinical neuropsychologist, Crawford relocated from Miami to his hometown of Jackson, Miss., in 2006, seven years after developing primary progressive multiple sclerosis. When his illness put him in a wheelchair, the bus became his lifeline — that is, when it didn't leave him behind, which happened often and sometimes still does...." Read more
Hmmmm... I continue to be dumbfounded by Conventional Transit's complete aversion to autonomousTaxis and conventional ride-hailing (Uber/Lyft). These are ways for the Transit Industry to deliver "separate-but-enormously-better" mobility to the mobility disadvantaged. And do it at a fraction of the cost of its low-quality conventional bus services and its inaccessible low-quality "rail" services.
Definitions: High-quality mobility takes individuals from where they are to where they want to go when they want to go. Lo-quality mobility takes individuals between a few (~20) long-ago designated locations (stops) at a few (~20) designated times. Alain
More
Hmmmm... from Dr. Prashanth Venkataram.....For wheelchair access, subways & buses generally have complementary problems. It is easy to get to the front of a bus without an elevator, but then getting into the bus requires a ramp or lift, which is a point of failure (and note that lifts, being more mechanically complicated, tend to be more prone to failure and consequently harder to operate manually than ramps) and is a substantial cost associated with the vehicle. By contrast, getting to a subway platform typically requires an elevator (unless there is enough land to allow for long gradually-sloped floors), which is a point of failure associated with the infrastructure of a station, but getting from the platform into the train can be done much more easily. Of course, there are exceptions: many light rail trains require ramps or lifts for wheelchair access, many commuter/regional rail trains have gaps that can only be bridged by virtue of conductors on board being able to manually find ramps in stations & deploy them (as the allowable dwell times are long enough), and many subway platforms have gaps to the train that are too large to bridge (and the short dwell times & lack of conductors means the only solution is usually to retrofit level boarding by rebuilding the platform appropriately, which is quite costly & time-consuming), while on the flip side, there are only a few examples (here is one using existing buses but rebuilt sidewalks: http://www.bostonbrt.org/everettbrt ) of buses that allow for level boarding, and even then only at certain stops where the curbs have been built in tandem with the bus design to allow it.
Note also that commitment to wheelchair access in subway systems doesn't necessarily correlate that strongly with the age of a system. While it's reasonable that the Chicago L & Boston T aren't fully accessible because of their ages, they do far better than the NYC Subway despite being of a similar age. Similarly, the BART & Washington Metro do far better than the Montreal Metro, which is of a similar age (that is much less than the Chicago L or Boston T). (On a side note regarding the Montreal Metro: the conscious decision by the designers of the Montreal Metro in the 1960s/1970s to ignore wheelchair access was not restricted to transit at that time. With respect to housing, there is an undergraduate dormitory at MIT, known as New House, which was built in the 1970s: during its design, budget constraints forced a choice between either elevators or air conditioning, and ultimately the latter was chosen without the former. Thankfully, recent renovations have added elevators.)
Taxi regulations typically pushed taxi companies to have a certain percentage of the fleet be wheelchair accessible, but the rise of TNCs has, especially in smaller markets, forced many taxi companies to close entirely, and those that don't close often first get rid of their wheelchair accessible vehicles, as those tend to be more expensive to operate & requires further training of drivers in their operation, while TNCs have been unwilling to fill the gap in this way; this is especially problematic in exactly these smaller markets where there are few alternatives to driving just to get around for work or normal errands.
You & I already know that while bus services can work in moderately dense areas along certain corridors at high frequency and with good connectivity, far more economic opportunities can be opened up to people marginalized by the current transportation paradigm, including people with disabilities, through on-demand point-to-point service, and this looks to be most promising if the promises of shared driverless mobility can be realized. However, the aforementioned problems with current designs for wheelchair access need to be seriously considered as a core issue with the design of driverless vehicles, and not simply as an afterthought; at least if problems arise, it may be cheaper to take a single relatively cheap car from a large fleet out of service compared to a single relatively expensive bus from a comparatively smaller fleet. In addition to questions of physical ingress/egress, there also needs to be consideration of whether there are certain nontrivial ways that current drivers help wheelchair users enter/exit vehicles (whether cars, vans, or buses) that may not have an obvious replacement if the driver is removed (and this would be especially critical if driverless cars ended up retaining but automating current designs for ramps/lifts), and whether safety regulations for wheelchairs to be secured in vehicles (which is required for cars, vans, and buses, but typically not for trains due to the more centralized nature of control & lack of "other" traffic, and which, when required, is typically performed by the driver) need to be revisited.
Perhaps the issues of ingress/egress from buses, proposed ingress/egress from driverless cars, and general sidewalk access can all be addressed through a concerted effort to simultaneously redesign sidewalks, redesign buses, and propose new standards for driverless vehicles, to allow for level boarding (without ramps or lifts). This would not only ensure that wheelchair users currently using buses and who may in the future use driverless vehicles can access them without any assistance, but it would also improve the experience for pedestrians, speed up entry/exit of passengers from buses which will improve the overall experience, and further mitigate problems for people who may not be in wheelchairs but may have knee pain, may be pushing a stroller, et cetera. The biggest improvements from investing in level boarding would be removing all of the costs associated with ramps/lifts aboard buses and generally metaphorically leveling the playing field for wheelchair users compared to able-bodied riders, such that a wheelchair user will essentially never be in a situation of being unable to ride a bus or driverless car when an able-bodied rider can ride the same vehicle.
All of this focuses on wheelchair users, but there are other disabilities to consider too. Apps or kiosks to summon driverless cars, as well as the interfaces within the cars themselves, will need to be designed to accommodate people with low vision/blindness, as well as people with mild mental disabilities (an example can be found here: https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/06/25/new-app-makes-mass-transit-accessible-to-people-with-cognitive-disabilities/ ); for example, cars meant for people with mental disabilities may need to have a more "friendly" face on a screen and be able to respond reasonably patiently to people with a reasonably large range of cognitive or speech disabilities to fulfill the role that kind drivers may currently play. People who may not need a wheelchair but may have other medical equipment to transport with assistance, like a portable oxygen tank, may currently require driver assistance as well as accommodation inside of the vehicle, so these things need to be considered for the design of driverless cars. (These points are more speculation from me, as I have been insulated from these issues in my own experience.)
This is my summary for your newsletter, which I have tried to tailor to the context of driverless mobility. "This is a solid summary of the current state of the strengths and weaknesses of public transit and TNCs when it comes to wheelchair access. I've been saying that a lot of the problems with fixed-route transit service or expensive & unreliable point-to-point paratransit service can be solved through on-demand point-to-point shared driverless mobility, giving much more mobility & freedom to those currently marginalized from today's transportation systems at a much lower cost through sharing and through taking the driver out of the equation. However, driverless mobility developers can't simply take it as given that their products will be a cure-all - we can't rest on our laurels! Accessibility MUST be a core value, and just like safety, MUST be included as a high minimum constraint in the design process itself, NOT just slapped on as an afterthought which breaks way too often (which was how we got into our current mess). It would be good if there could be more coordination among driverless mobility developers, transit agencies, other city agencies, and disability advocacy groups, preferably with people with disabilities not simply confined to such advocacy groups but actually directly advising developers & agencies, to thoughtfully ensure wheelchair access for current and future mobility, through vehicles, physical infrastructure, and other aspects of the ride. Plus, drivers today do a lot to help people with other disabilities, including those with medical equipment, mental disabilities, and so on, so those riders' needs have to be considered too - they can't be an afterthought either just because they don't have easily-recognizable wheelchairs!" Prashanth
Partnering with Volvo Car Group to scale the Waymo Driver
Company News, June 25, "On the path to building the World's Most Experienced Driver, we partner with some of the world's largest automakers to realize our mission to make it safe and easy for people and things to get where they're going. We focus on custom designing our hardware suite, software, and compute. We then collaborate with carmakers, leveraging their expertise in automotive design, engineering, and manufacturing, to help us create vehicles that integrate easily with the Waymo Driver, making them well-suited for ride hailing, local delivery, trucking, and personal car ownership. That's why we're pleased to share today our latest automotive partnership.
Waymo is now the exclusive global L4 partner for Volvo Car Group, a global leader in automotive safety, including its strategic affiliates Polestar and Lynk & Co. International. Through our strategic partnership, we will first work together to integrate the Waymo Driver into an all-new mobility-focused electric vehicle platform for ride hailing services.
Adam Frost, Chief Automotive Officer, Waymo: "This key partnership with Volvo Car Group helps pave the path to the deployment of the Waymo Driver globally in years to come, and represents an important milestone in the highly competitive autonomous vehicle industry. Volvo Car Group shares our vision of creating an autonomous future where roads are safer, and transportation is more accessible and greener. We're thrilled to welcome Volvo Car Group as our latest automotive partner."..." Read more
Hmmm... Yes, Waymo is in the Driver building business and not the Car building business. The Car is the commodity here, not the Driver. Details certainly matter, but on the surface, this deal seems to benefit Volvo much more than Waymo. Plus, Waymo may need to be very careful to not get Levandowshied again.
See and Andrew Hawkin's take on this...Volvo will use Waymo's self-driving technology to power a fleet of electric robotaxis Alain
TuSimple is laying the groundwork for a coast-to-coast autonomous trucking network
A. Hawkins, July 1, "Autonomous trucking startup TuSimple is joining forces with big logistics providers as it seeks to bolster its delivery capabilities. The company announced it will be working with UPS, Xpress Enterprises, Penske Trucking, and Berkshire Hathaway-owned grocery and food-service distributor McLane to lay the foundation for a coast-to-coast autonomous trucking network.
TuSimple aims to be making nearly 100 delivery runs a week, doubling its current number of freight hauls, but the ramp-up will take place over the next four years....
TuSimple is aiming for a fully driverless system, but currently its trucks include a human operator to take over driving when needed. ... " Read more
Hmmm... Seepromotional video. It is a shame that TuSimple does not promote the enhanced driver working conditions that its technology provides today but instead focuses on only the removal of the driver at some distant future. By that time all the benefits have been discounted to zero. Whatever! :-X Alain
Stock surge makes Tesla the world's most valuable automaker
T. Lee, July 1, "One share of Tesla stock traded for more than $1,130 on Wednesday, pushing the company's market capitalization to nearly $210 billion. That sent Tesla's market cap past Toyota, which is worth either $170 billion or $203 billion, depending on how you count it. Tesla is now the world's most valuable car company.
It's a remarkable milestone for a company that sells far fewer cars than its leading rivals. Toyota and its subsidiaries sold 10.7 million vehicles in 2019, while Volkswagen and its subsidiaries sold almost 11 million vehicles. Tesla sold a comparatively tiny 367,500 vehicles last year.
But Wall Street is apparently very optimistic about Tesla's prospects for future growth and profits..." Read more
Hmmm.... Whew!!! See Fred Lambert's Tesla (TSLA) pushes to new all-time high as Q2 is looking better than expected. Sure am glad I didn't short @ $400. :-) Alain
Tesla Overtakes Exxon's Market Value in Symbolic Energy Shift
D. Wethe, June 30, "Tesla Inc.'s market value has surpassed Exxon Mobil Corp.'s in a sign that investors are increasingly betting on a global energy transition away from fossil fuels.
Elon Musk's Tesla, now at $201 billion in market capitalization, is surging on the billionaire's optimism that his company can avoid a second-quarter loss. Exxon, which dropped to $185 billion, is reeling from the worst crude-price crash in history. The largest oil company in the Western Hemisphere is preparing to cut some of its U.S. workforce...." Read more
Hmmm.... Whew!!! Who would have thought?? You can't make up this stuff! Alain
Waymo to expand autonomous truck testing in the American Southwest
K. Wiggers, June 30, "Today during a briefing with members of the media, Waymo head of commercialization for trucking Charlie Jatt outlined the company's go-to-market plans for Waymo Via, its self-driving delivery division. In the future, Waymo will partner with OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers to equip cloud-based trucks manufactured and sold to the market with its autonomous systems. In addition, Waymo will work with fleets to provide its software services and offer support for things like mapping and remote fleet assistance.
As Waymo transitions to this model, Jatt said that Waymo intends to own and offer its own fleet of trucks — at least in the short term. One of the delivery solutions it's exploring is a transfer-hub model where, rather than an automated truck covering an entire journey, there will be a mix of an automated portion and a portion involving manually driven, human-manned trucks. Automated vehicle transfer hubs close to highways would handle the switch-off and minimize surface street driving.
In a first step toward this vision, Waymo says it will soon expand testing on roads in New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas along the I-10 corridor between Phoenix and Tuscon, as previously announced. This year Waymo mapped routes between Phoenix, El Paso, Dallas, and Houston and ramped up testing in California on freeways in Mountain View, but the focus for the rest of 2020 will be on the American Southwest. " Read more
Hmmm... Once again, Waymo, along with TuSimple may well be missing an THE opportunity to get started by not focusing on the human driving enhancement features that provide real tangible value to any long-haul truck fleet (reduced expected self-insurance expenditures, improve driver retention, create happier workforce, improved driver productivity, ...) and instead focuses on the extraction of the driver from the truck. No one is ready to have driverless trucks traveling long hauls down interstates. Every breakdown will be a complete fubar and the first crash will instantly halt everything and substantially devalue the ranch. Whatever! Alain
AutonomouStuff June News
Staff, June 30, "In this issue:
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Safety Q&A on ISO 26262 and beyond with VP John Buszek
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University of Illinois expands autonomous safety with AS
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Highlight: Qumulo Shift for AWS S3
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In stock: Velodyne Alpha Prime
..." Read more
Hmmm... Bobby, keep up the good work. :-) Alain
Fatality Facts 2018: Collisions with fixed objects and animals
Staff, December 2019, "About 20 percent of motor vehicle crash deaths result from a vehicle leaving the roadway and hitting a fixed object alongside the road. Trees, utility poles, and traffic barriers are the most common objects struck. Almost half of the deaths in fixed object crashes occur at night. Alcohol is a frequent contributing factor. Motorists also run off the road because of excessive speeds, falling asleep, inattention or poor visibility.
From 1975 to the mid-2000s there was a general upward trend in deaths from collisions with animals, but this trend has leveled off over the past decade. In 2018, these deaths occurred most often during July-September...." Read more
Hmmm... Some interesting facts here that rectify some statements made in our Zoom-inar (Video replay) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars? Alain
Lyft resumes autonomous vehicle testing on public roads
K. Wiggers, June 30, "Roughly three months after the pandemic halted its autonomous vehicle tests, Lyft today announced its safety operators will resume driving a portion of its cars on public roads. An employee-only autonomous ride-hailing pilot in Palo Alto remains on pause. But in a blog post, Lyft director of product Sameer Qureshi and director of engineering Robert Morgan characterized road testing as a "critical" part of Lyft's driverless systems development.
In March, Lyft's safety drivers — along with engineers and developers — were told to stay home until further notice as shelter-in-place orders made public road testing impossible. In the interim, the company has leaned on simulation to further refine its platform. Autonomous vehicle developers agree that simulation supplements but can't replace real-world experience.
A spokesperson said Lyft would continue to abide by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines and work with local governments in deciding whether to pause testing in the future. This week, governors in Washington, California, Florida, and Texas walked back some of their reopening plans as COVID-19 cases rose in more than 30 states across the U.S.
Currently, Lyft safety drivers are using personal protective equipment (including face shields) and taking precautionary steps inside the driverless vehicles. Two drivers will be paired together for two weeks at a time and subject to temperature checks, and separated by partitions installed inside the regularly sanitized cars... " Read more
Hmmm... OK, I guess. :-\ Alain
Refraction AI's robots start delivering groceries in Ann Arbor
K. Wiggers, June 30, "Refraction AI, a company developing semi-autonomous delivery robots, today began handling select customers' orders from Ann Arbor, Michigan's Produce Station. This marks the startup's first foray into grocery delivery after the launch of its restaurant delivery service. The move comes as Refraction reports a 3-4 times uptick in pandemic-related demand....
Refraction says from today customers within a three-mile radius of Produce Station can have orders delivered by its REV-1 robot. After customers order through a dedicated website, Refraction's employees load the vehicles at the store, and recipients receive text message updates, along with a code to open the robot's storage compartment when it arrives.... " Read more
Hmmm... OK, I guess. Alain
Watch Tesla Autopilot swerve at last second to avoid a deer
F. Lambert, July 7, "We are starting to see an increasing number of reports from Tesla owners about Autopilot doing some really aggressive maneuvers to avoid crashes. In this new example, a Tesla owner shares a video of Autopilot swerving to avoid a deer at the last second...." Read more
Hmmmm... Impressive. But I sure hope that it knew another car wasn't in the on-coming left lane. I'm sure it did. (If the choice between a stationary deer or an on-coming ??? I'll always pick the deer...)
Wonder why it waited so long to do the maneuver and why it didn't seem to slow down. It must have seen it a full 2 seconds before it passed it. Seems like Tesla needs to do more work here. It may well have been really lucky here (No on-coming traffic, dry straight road, ...). See video. Alain
New Roman""> DraftPrinceton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Postponed until Evening Oct. 20 through Oct. 22, 2020 (But will likely need to be completely Virtual, possibly in "Second life") A. Kornhauser, Feb 6, "The focus of the Summit this year will be moving beyond the AI and the Sensors to addressing the challenges of Commercialization and the delivery of tangible value to communities. We've made enormous progress with the technology. We're doing the investment; however, this investment delivers value only if is commercialized: made available and is used by consumers in large numbers. Demos and one-offs are "great", but to deliver value that is anywhere near commensurate with the magnitude of the investment made to date, initial deployments need to scale. We can't just have "Morgantown PRT Systems" whose initial deployment has been nothing but enormously successful for 45 years (an essentially perfect safety record, an excellent availability record and customer valued mobility). Unfortunately, the system was never expanded or duplicated anywhere. It didn't scale. It is a one-off.
Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale. In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va. which became the reference for many other cites. "... By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague's equipment had been begun or planned on several continents..." Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology. It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.
In part, the 4th Summit will focus on defining the "Richmond" of Affordable Shared-ride On-demand Mobility-as-a-Service. The initial Operational Design Domain (ODD) that safely accommodates Driverless Mobility Machines that people actually choose to use and becomes the envy of communities throughout the Program is in flux. Consider all named individuals as "Invited yet to be confirmed". Alain
C'mon Man!(These
folks didn't get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
Calendar
of Upcoming Events:s
New Roman""> SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 005 AV Shark-Tank:
Topic to be Announced
Live Monday, July 13 @ 2pm New York Time
Virtual, Evening Oct. 20 -> Oct 22.
SmartDrivingCar Summit
Princeton University Princeton, NJ
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 162, Zoom-Cast Episode 162 w/Cliff Winston
F. Fishkin, June 25, "From the Brookings Institution, Cliff Winston, co-author of Autonomous Vehicles...The Road to Economic Growth? joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..why are fatal crash rates rising in the midst of a pandemic...plus NVIDIA, Didi, Tesla and more."
... Alain SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 004 Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
F. Fishkin, June 23, "But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about ..."
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Zoom-inar (Video replay) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
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PodCast (Audio Only) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
Hmmm... We only scratched the surface. Alain SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 161, Zoom-Cast Episode 161 w/Alberto Stochino
F. Fishkin, June 17, "Is less data sometimes more when it comes to driverless vehicle technology? Perceptive Founder and CEO Alberto Stochino joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the DOT's new plan for sharing autonomous safety information, the latest from Tesla, EVs from China and more." ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 160, Zoom-Cast Episode 160 w/Jessica Cicchino
F. Fishkin, June 12, "Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Research VP Jessica Cicchino co-authored a new study saying self driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to discuss the study. Plus the latest on Tesla, Ford & VW, Covid-19 and more. " "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 159, Zoom-Cast Episode 159 w/Kara Kockelman
F. Fishkin, June 4, "Prof. Kara Kockelman's focus on smart transportation to save lives, money and the environment has made her a sought after global expert. The U. of Texas Transportation Engineering Professor joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on the impact of Covid-19 and much more. Plus Tesla, Uber, Argo AI and the top smart driving headlines. For more on Dr. Kockelman's work....please visit... http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman."
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-inar 003 Everyone's for Connectivity; but... F. Fishkin, June 2, "But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about ..."
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Zoom-inar (Video replay) Everyone's for Connectivity; but...
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PodCast (Audio Only) Everyone's for Connectivity; but...
Hmmm... We only scratched the surface. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 158, Zoom-Cast Episode 158 w/Chunka Mui
F. Fishkin, May 28, "In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, what are the smartest ways to re-build and plan for the future? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Amazon, Zoox, Intel Mobileye, Tesla, Uber and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 157, Zoom-Cast Episode 157 w/Grayson Brulte
F. Fishkin, May 21, "Global auto makers must completely re-think their autonomous mobility strategy as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. So says innovation strategist Grayson Brulte of Brulte & Company....who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Waymo, Tesla, Uber and more."
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-inar 002 The Future of Public Roadway Transit
(Will the Bus be Thrown Under the Bus?)
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Zoom-inar Video (Video replay)Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
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PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 156, Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 156 w/Danny Shapiro2
F. Fishkin, May 14, "With new hardware and software capabilities NVIDIA is expanding into new areas of driver assistance technology. Sr. Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Waymo, Voyage, Ford and more. listen and subscribe!" "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 155, Zoom-Cast Episode 155 w/Alex Roy2
F. Fishkin, April 29, "The continuing impact of Covid-19 on autonomous vehicle progress. But it may not be all bad news. Alex Roy...host of the No Parking Podcast and Director of Special Operations at Argo AI joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Intel, Lyft, Uber and more. Listen and subscribe!"
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 154, Zoom-Cast Episode 154 w/Dan Sperling
F. Fishkin, April 29, "Can ride sharing rebound after the pandemic? Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo, Ford and more."
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-inar 001 The Driverless New Normal Debate
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SmartDrivingCar PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Driverless New Normal Debate
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Zoom Audience Questions (Only a few were addressed in Zoom-inar)
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Zoom Audience Comments
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 153, Zoom-Cast Episode 153 w/Dick Mudge2
F. Fishkin, April 17, "The plummeting price of oil and what it may mean for mobility, ride sharing and the economy.. Dick Mudge, founder and president of Compass Transportation & Technology joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus GM, Uber and more on the Coronavirus impact."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 152, Zoom-Cast Episode 152 w/Brad Templeton
F. Fishkin, April 17, "Can robotaxis survive a pandemic? Internet pioneer, self driving car consultant and author Brad Templeton joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in a wide ranging chat on the impact today and the future. Plus...Uber, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla and more." "
SmartDrivingCars Podcast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, "The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also...Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!" ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop Video version... Watch our first attempt.... Alain
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Mar. 14, "From Sweden...The Dispatcher editor Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin as Covid-19 takes a toll on Waymo, Uber and more. Plus Saving the Car Industries in the U.S. and the EU... the latest from Future Networked Car 2020 in Geneva and more." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes
F. Fishkin, Feb 15, "What shifting populations mean for the future of mobility and transportation. Leading expert Jim Hughes of Rutgers University joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Tesla, GM, Comma AI's inexpensive autopilot, Aptiv, Lyft and more. Tune in and subscribe! "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy
F. Fishkin, Feb 7, "The latest glossary of BS in mobility, self driving and autonomy from author, podcaster and cannonball driver Alex Roy on Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the news from Tesla, Nuro, Waymo, GM and more! "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O'Toole
F. Fishkin, Jan 25, "Adaptive cruise control and self driving tech may lead to more urban sprawl. But the Cato Institute's Randal O'Toole says maybe that isn't a bad thing. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Subaru's tech, GM's Cruise, Tesla and more on the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This edition is sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information…head to www.motoetf.com "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart
F. Fishkin, Jan 18, "The new mobility on the ground and in the air. Nicolas Zart joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for a discussion on Urban Air Mobility...plus..Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Mobileye, Waymo and more in this edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136
F. Fishkin, Jan 6, "He's back! Princeton's Alain Kornhauser...still on the mend ...but opinionated as ever...joins co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the latest from Waymo, Tesla and more in Episode 136 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson
F. Fishkin, Dec 5, "In this special edition... the launch of a new exchange traded fund focused on smart transportation and technology. Guinness Atkinson Asset Management CEO Jim Atkinson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus..a push by the Coalition for Future Mobility for action in Washington, AutoX wants driverless testing in California and Aptiv grows in Pittsburgh. "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Nov. 1, "An updated outlook for automated vehicles...Tesla, Waymo , Ford, VW and more. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by guests Michael Sena and Dick Mudge in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM F. Fishkin, June 9, "Should the insurance industry be pushing more safety and autonomous tech in cars? It's a win, win says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser. Joining him in the discussion along with co-host Fred Fishkin is NJM's John Hardiman, a board member of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Also...Fiat Chrysler, Ford and more."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot F. Fishkin, May 25, " The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus...Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup
F. Fishkin, May 18, "Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It's just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit Leilei Shinohara & Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell
F. Fishkin, May 18, "In this special edition from the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit, Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by RoboSense VP Leilei Shinohara on the LiDAR's benefits. And view of autonomous technology from law enforcement with New York State Police
Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley
F. Fishkin, May 18, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, David Kidd from the Highway Loss Data Institute joins Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin and then on site preliminary research results on mobility for all with Cecilia Feeley and Andrea Lubin from Rutgers."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund
F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena'69
March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55
F. Fishkin, Dec. 13, "When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says "Not so fast." The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui
F. Fishkin, Nov 29, "What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV
F. Fishkin, Nov 1, "California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state's deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles
F. Fishkin, Sept 22 "In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety...and a champion racer. Beyond that....he's an old high school friend of Alain's! And there's more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
Recent Highlights of:
Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates Jump 36.6% in April Despite Quarantines, Says National Safety Council
Press release, June 24, " Preliminary estimates based on April data from all 50 states indicate that for the second straight month, Americans did not reap any safety benefit from having less roadway traffic. In fact, the roads became even more lethal as miles driven plummeted. Preliminary estimates from the National Safety Council show a year-over-year 36.6% jump in fatality rates per miles driven in April, in spite of an 18% drop in the total number of roadway deaths compared to April 2019. The actual number of miles driven dropped 40% compared to the same time period last year. The mileage death rate per 100 million vehicle miles driven was 1.47 in April compared to 1.08 in 2019....
"Even without traffic, our roads were no safer," said Lorraine M. Martin, president and CEO of the National Safety Council. "It is heartbreaking to see the carnage on our roadways continue, especially when our medical professionals should be able to focus intently on treating a pandemic rather than preventable car crashes. These numbers underscore our urgent need to change the culture of safety on our roads." .." Read more
Hmmm.... Wow!!! Does COVID-19 have any silver linings?? So highway deaths aren't as well correlated to VMT as we/I had thought. what are the other big terms is the relationship? Alcohol consumption?, Speed?, all the safe drivers staying home and only the high liability drivers (teenagers and Generation COVIDs out there texting??? Alain
U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao Announces First Participants in New Automated Vehicle Initiative to Improve Safety, Testing, and Public Engagement
Press release, June 15, "The U.S. Department of Transportation today announced nine companies and eight States that have signed on as the first participants in a new Department initiative to improve the safety and testing transparency of automated driving systems, the Automated Vehicle Transparency and Engagement for Safe Testing (AV TEST) Initiative. The participating companies are Beep, Cruise, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Local Motors, Navya, Nuro, Toyota, Uber, and Waymo. The States are California, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Utah.
"Through this initiative, the Department is creating a formal platform for Federal, State, and local government to coordinate and share information in a standard way," said U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao. ...
This initiative aligns with the Department's leadership on automated driving system vehicles, including AV 4.0: Ensuring American Leadership in Automated Vehicle Technologies." Read more
Hmmm... Excellent. This is really good because it is promotes and organizes the open sharing of safety information assoiated with automated driving. This is extremely important because safety of these systems is a necessary condition for their adoption.
Unfortunately, a few things seem to be missing from the announcement.
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a budget (Washington may not have any money left after COVID-19),
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any mention of mobility for people or for goods. The testing of safety is conducted without doing any useful mobility, but the value of testing is derived from the delivery of that mobility. Safety in that context requires the active engagement the entities that are being transported. It is very important that this initiative include potential customers and neighborhoods whose streets such automation might use, and
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the whole Northeast including New Jersey seems to have not "signed on", nor is Ford/Argo, Zooks, Aurore, Voyage Amazon, Apple.... Alain
Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19, June 12, 2020 R. Dale Hall, June 12, "...By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines...." Read more
Hmmm... Excellent! An enormous amount here. See especially FIg 11 and 17. These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, ... An enormous amount to digest here. Excellent. Alain
Two-way Vehicle Connectivity is a Three-sided Coin That Everyone Wants to Own M. Sena, May 26, "Two-way vehicle connectivity has three facets. Two of them are mainly of interest to vehicle OEMs and their suppliers. They are vehicle-centric and customer-centric. Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency notification, logistics tracking and over-the-air updating. Customer centric connectivity includes many services that are also provided by mobile apps outside of the vehicle, such as music streaming, workshop service booking, traffic notifications and car sharing applications. Two-way vehicle connectivity today is a major competitive factor for the OEMs.
The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it....
But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about..." Read more
Hmmmm... The provacateur's lead at the beginning of our 3rd Shark-Tank Zoom-inar (Video, Audio) Alain
Luminaries Battle In Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate About The Future Of Self-Driving Cars Lance Eliot, April 28, "Several self-driving car luminaries assembled online via a Zoom-casted battleground this week to undertake a Lincoln-Douglas style debate about the future of the Autonomous Vehicle (AV) self-driving car industry and the advent of AI-driven mobility.
Originally scheduled for one hour, the dialogue and fielding of audience questions prompted the superstars to keep going, tackling many of the most vexing and unsolved matters that underlie the potential success of self-driving vehicles, encompassing both autonomous cars and autonomous trucks.
The lively discussion was civil and polite, fortunately so in these times of seemingly stark polarization and guttural attacks during our contemporary public discourse. Yet, even in the realm of eloquent argumentation, at times the gloves came off and there were some fierce zingers and moments of rather piercing cut-the-air-with-a-knife verbal sparring..." Read more
Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for the kind and thorough synopsis of our 1st Zoom-inar. We were all pleased by the turnout, interaction and substance. Alain
What Negative Oil Prices Mean and How the Impact Could Last V. Bajaj, April 22,"A main benchmark for the price of oil fell negative for the first time ever this week. The decline — more than 300 percent in daily trading — raised fresh questions about the damage the coronavirus is having on the global economy.
What does it mean for oil prices to be negative?
A benchmark price for a barrel of oil to be delivered next month fell to -$37.63 on Monday, which means that sellers would have to pay someone that much to take it off their hands.
But that historic plunge was exacerbated by a quirk in how the oil markets work.
The negative price concerned only contracts for delivery of barrels in May that are traded on so-called futures markets. At the same time trading happens for May deliveries, people trade on contracts ending in June, in July and so on." Read more
Hmmmm... What??? I realize that I'm often "out of it", but... In all my life I have NEVER... thought of, let alone mentioned, nor have heard anyone else mention the concept of negative oil! Often, talked about $150/B oil, $250/B, S20/B even $7/B oil. NEVER $0/B oil, negative Oil... NEVER,NEVER, NEVER!!!! and look where we are. UNBELIEVABLE!!! Implications:... no one's models extrapolate to that regime. (it requires extrapolation because no data exists in this unimaginable region. Listen to Pod-Cast; Watch Zoom-Cast Alain
Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead? R. Bishop, Mar 24, "I met Stefan Seltz-Axmacher for the first time in November 2015 at the Florida Automated Vehicles Summit. Not long after, we met at the Blue Danube coffee shop in Alameda, CA so he could tell me about his vision for Starsky Robotics. When he energetically described his remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. "Remote driving is hard," I said. "The military has struggled with this for years. Its harder than it looks." On the technical side, latency for secure communications is challenging. On the operational side, re-creating enough on-road reality (situational awareness) for a remote driver is difficult when going for the high levels of safety needed. Seltz-Axmacher remained bullish on the approach and at that time went on to found Starsky Robotics as one of the earliest truck AV startups, later closing a $16.5M Series A funding round in March 2018, and then hauling freight while developing both remote and automated driving ability. Initially, Starsky's concept was all about remote driving for first/last mile. They later expanded their offering to include fully automated highway driving on limited freight corridors.
Now, Starsky has become the first casualty within a crowded truck automation space, and Seltz-Axmacher has provided us with an intriguing post-mortem in a recent Medium post. Most of the media coverage I've seen has acted as echo chambers for Seltz-Axmacher's perspective. Here I offer a counterpoint based on my longtime involvement in truck automation plus discussions with many others in the truck Automated Driving Systems (ADS) startup space, many of them irate at what they see as unfounded assertions made in the original post. My sources tell me that because Seltz-Axmacher hasn't experienced their technology nor been briefed on their technical/safety approach, he has no basis to make sweeping claims about the entire industry...." Read more
Hmmmm... Listen to PodCast 148. or/and Watch us on YouTube. Alain
Waymo suspends robotaxi service except for its truly driverless vehicles K. Korosec, Mar. 17, "Waymo said Tuesday it is pausing operations of Waymo One, a service in the Phoenix area that allows the public to hail rides in self-driving vehicles with trained human safety operators behind the wheel, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Waymo is also halting testing on public roads in California.
However, Waymo will keep some operations up and running, notably its truly driverless vehicles, which don't require a human safety driver, according to an announcement on its website Tuesday. These driverless vehicles are used in the Phoenix area as part of Waymo's early rider program that lets vetted members of the public hail a ride..." Read more Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the latest is not so good... Waymo has suspended all services, including the driverless. Poopie!!! Alain
"Urbs," "Burbs," and the Immigration Locomotive
J. Hughes, Feb 2020, "Even more so than the nation, the broad fourstate, 35-county metropolitan region centered on New York City (figure 1) is becoming afflicted by a condition of demographic stagnation. While the United States has been experiencing the lowest population growth rates since the Great Depression, the region has only recently (2016–2018) slipped into absolute population decline, spawned by domestic outmigration. The major counterforce forestalling a demographic catastrophe has been positive international migration. Immigration has become the primary source of population growth—the demographic locomotive. Without it, the region would have to bear fully the economic consequences of what has become a virtual domestic population hemorrhage—a vast exodus of regional residents moving to the rest of the country. This is just one dimension of endemic demographic change that has swept the post–Great Recession world....
The second new reset is a turnaround of the pattern evidenced in the 2010–2016 period, when population growth in the "urbs" surpassed that of the "burbs." After dominating growth early in the decade (2010–2016), the core—the urban heart of the metropolitan region encompassing New York City and three adjacent counties in New Jersey—suddenly slipped into decline post-2016, causing the region as a whole to lose population. This is the latest transformation in what has become a transmillennial demographic roller coaster ride... " Read more
Hmmmm... Most interesting Demographic Dynamic. A must read. Alain
2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about 'Smaht Pahk'
S. Szymkowski, Jan 27, "Hyundai is going all in on Boston accents and the 2020 Sonata for its Super Bowl advertisement. As is often the trend these days, the ad made its debut on Monday less than a week before the big game, but it's quite a clever spot...." Read more
Hmmmm... This is as irresponsible of Hyundai as StupidSummon is for Tesla. It may even be more irresponsible because Hyundai hasn't included the over-the-air-information system that allows them to monitor its use. Having the car do stuff without an alert and attentive driver in the driver's seat implies liability on them (their system) if something bad happens. Plus, squeezing a car into a parking place when the people can't get into the adjacent cars is not the smartest move unless you've also made the Hyundai key proof. There will be retaliation. Alain
The Disengagement Myth Kyle Vogt, Jan 17, "In a few weeks the California DMV will release disengagements data from Cruise and other companies who test AVs on public roads. This data is really great for giving the public a sense of what's happening on the roads. Unfortunately, it has also been used by the media and others to compare technology from different AV companies or as a proxy for commercial readiness. Since it's the only publicly available metric, I don't really blame them for using it. But it's woefully inadequate for most uses beyond those of the DMV. The idea that disengagements give a meaningful signal about whether an AV is ready for commercial deployment is a myth. ..." Read more
Hmmmm... Amen! This is a MUST read. As with everything, details matter. It is true that figures don't lie, but but it is easy to game systems such that figures, without the underlying details, do lie. As Kyle points out, there are important details associated with disengagements. These need to be well understood for disengagements to be a proxy for safety and market readiness. The when, where and associated details of each disengagement is critically important if the objective is safety and market readiness.
What is also most important here is the underlying objective of the companies doing the tests and reporting the data. As has happened in our secondary education where students are taught what is in and how to take the SATs rather than just learn. The objective is not learning , but getting 800s on the SATs so that they can get into 'Princeton'. This is perpetuated by the 'Princetons' of this world that don't look into the details of the student's academic qualities and capabilities. In the academic world, we know these students as 'box checkers', gamers of the college admission process. The gaming is continued by the 'banks and med schools' that use simplistic GPA (Grade Point Average, aka 'disengagements') cutoffs. The 'box checkers' then take 'underwater basket weaving' courses and become grade grubbers. It is lazy and irresponsible to use simplistic measures as proxies to very complex concepts such as intelligence, creativity, compatibility, and all the other details that make a good student, a good employee, a good citizen, a good mobility system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig". It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? Alain
Hmmmm... Reflections
A. Kornhauser, Jan 12,
Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6,
Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
Chandler unveils drop-off, pick-up zone for self-driving cars G. Zetino, Nov. 25, ""It's about to get easier for self-driving cars to drop off and pick up passengers in Chandler. The city of Chandler, in partnership with Waymo, on Friday unveiled the nation's first drop-off and pick-up zone for autonomous ride-hailing cars.
Hmmmm... The iconic image:
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida R. Wile, Nov 22, "Sen. Jeff Brandes (R-St. Petersburg) had just finished serving in the Army, and was looking to make a name for himself in Tallahassee as a junior representative. He came across a talk given by the founder of Google's driverless car project.
He quickly realized the potential of self-driving cars to transform many aspects of daily life. Ever since, he has made it his mission to turn Florida into what he calls "an angel investor" in automation policy. "We want to have policies in place for this technology to flourish," Brandes said in an interview at the 7th Annual Florida Automated Vehicles conference in Miami, which concluded Friday.
Brandes has drawn headlines in the tech community for filing legislation allowing virtually any automated vehicle on Florida's roads; this summer, he helped make Florida one of the first states to make AVs without a human back-up safety driver street legal.
Among the state's advantages Brandes points to that he believes makes it ideal for AV companies: no snow, which makes lane markings more visible. That also means less road construction in general...." Read more
Hmmmm... Congratulations Jeff!!! It was a great AV Summit and congratulations on creating such a Welcoming environment and intelligently shaping the birth of this technology. What you've done is enable Florida to begin to enhance mobility and the quality of life for all in Florida and especially those who can most benefit from these mobility machines. It was most impressive to witness the enthusiasm for nurturing the many aspects of this technology from Florida's Governor, Miami's Mayor, Fl DoT's Commissioner, the heads of the toll road authorities, planning agencies and educational institutions. Most impressive was Ford's comment that their autonomousTaxi efforts are focused on developing driverless technology and intend to operate it to deliver Mobility-as-a-Service in Florida, rather than sell the technology to individual consumers. I applaud that approach and hope that Ford will look to also bringing some of those vehicles to New Jersey so that we can begin to reap the benefits of this technology. What you've accomplished in Florida is THE "best practice" for us to emulate in New Jersey. Congratulations. Alain
An Update on the Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
September 28, 2019 Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton K. Knapp, Sept 22, "What would it take to make Princeton an accessible community for all, even those who cannot or choose not to own or drive a car? Princeton Future will explore the question at a public forum from 9 a.m. to noon on Sept. 28 in the community room at the Princeton Public Library.
Princeton Future is a non-profit community group that studies issues related to planning, development, and affordability. Speakers will discuss the capabilities of a transit-on-demand system where small, driverless shuttles could be summoned by a smart phone app to a location within walking distance of a resident's home...." Read more
Hmmmm.... Listen to a summary of the event in Episode 126 of the SmartDrivingCars PodCasts. See below for other info. Alain
August 17, 2019
Autonomous Vehicles: A View from Seniors
Automated vehicles could provide mobility to the 'mobility disadvantaged'
Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles
Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)
Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164 Sponsors: Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)
Oct 16, Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14); Lampitt (D6)..." Read more
Hmmmm.... Things are beginning to move in New Jersey. Alain
Testimony of Alain Kornhauser, Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
June 12, 2018 CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS
3, 2018
Waymo's fleet of self-driving minivans is about to get 100 times bigger
May 25, 2018 PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)
May 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.
...The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency
braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions for detecting driver alertness and road sign information. All these Volvo functions are disabled when the test vehicle is operated in computer control..."Read more
Hmmmm.... Uber must believe that its systems are better at avoiding Collisions and Automated Emergency Braking than Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo "off the hook".
"...According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph..." (= 63 feet/second) So the system started "seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away... more than a football field, including end zones!
"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path..." (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this "object' as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected "future travel paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber's system attached to the "object", then the "vehicle". Why didn't the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision? If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren't they accurate? Why was the object classified as a "Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"? Why did it change classifications? How often was the classification of this object done. Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object. In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a "pedestrian"when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber's Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. ..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle behavior Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating " "erratic vehicle behavior". This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber system's false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.
"...The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. " Wow! If Uber's system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past "Peak valuation".
"...The system is not designed to alert the operator. " That may be the only good part of Uber's design. In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don't waste your time. If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast 30 and the 24 edition of May 10, 2018
March 24, 2018 Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail
April 17, 2017
Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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