8.30 - Sena OEM
edition of the 8th year of SmartDrivingCars
Waymo and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) expand autonomous driving technology partnership
Company News, July 22, "Back in 2016, we announced our very first OEM partner: Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA). Since then, we've worked closely with FCA to integrate our Waymo Driver into FCA vehicles, and together we've made self-driving history in the proven, capable, L4-ready Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivan, including launching the first commercial autonomous ride-hailing service, beginning to offer fully driverless service to our riders, and driving in dozens of cities across diverse geographies and challenging weather conditions. Now, we're pleased to share that we've strengthened our partnership with FCA in several important ways.
FCA has selected Waymo as its exclusive, strategic technology partner for L4 fully self-driving technology across FCA's full product portfolio. We've already started to work together to imagine future FCA products for the movement of people and goods operated by the Waymo Driver.
In addition, Waymo will work exclusively with FCA as our preferred partner on the development and testing of L4 autonomous light commercial vehicles* for goods movement, including in Waymo Via. We will initially target integration of the Waymo Driver into the Ram ProMaster van, a highly configurable platform that will enable access to a broad range of global commercial customers.... " Read more
Hmmm.... This is big! WayFCA v AmaZoox (+Rivian)! Only challenges:
a. WayFCA is missing the Customer leg of the 3-legged stool. It is only the Zoox (+Rivian) part of AmaZooRiv. Does FedEx or UPS or USPS or WalMart or Maycy's (heaven forbid) or Sears (heaven forbid squared) or ??? make the Trinity to take on AmaZooRiv, plus
b. Is the Technology rather than the Customer is wagging the WayFCA??? dog.
In any even, Affordable (Driverless) Home Delivery of Stuff may well be the Elijah for Affordable (Driverless) Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged as we debated in SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 004 AmaZooks. Alain
SmartDrivingCars PodCast 166 w/Jay Rodgers'95, CEO Local Motors
F. Fishkin 16, "Local Motors announces a partnership with Beep to broadly deploy autonomous electric shuttles. CEO Jay Rogers joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging chat. Plus the Waymo-Fiat Chrysler deal, Tesla, AutoX, Ford, Mobileye and more." "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode166 w/Jay Rodgers'95, CEO Local Motors
Video version of SmartDrivingCars PodCast 166.... Alain
Roman""> SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar Episode 004 AmaZooks
F. Fishkin, July 20, "Is Driverless home delivery the fastest route to Affordable Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged? ... "
Hmmm... We only scratched the surface. Then came WayFMC??? Alain
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
Beep And Local
Motors Announce Strategic Partnership To Broadly Deploy Autonomous, Electric Shuttles
PRWire, July 23, "Beep, a Florida-based autonomous Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) provider and Local Motors by LM Industries, the world's first and only digital vehicle manufacturer, today announced a strategic partnership and new reseller agreement. The collaborative agreement is intended to significantly expand the number of AV shuttles on both public and private roads, enabling Beep and Local Motors to bring autonomous solutions to more people and enhance the rider experience through continued testing and safe deployments.
Under the reseller agreement, Local Motors will provide Beep with Olli 2.0 autonomous, electric, 3D-printed shuttles for future customer deployments. Beep and Local Motors will also team up to advance and expand the operating domain of multi-passenger, autonomous vehicles in concert with their ongoing testing and information sharing program through the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).
"By partnering with Beep and leveraging our existing relationship with Robotic Research, we can bring Olli to new customers in expanded markets across the U.S. and abroad," said Vikrant Aggarwal, President of Local Motors. "We're living in a world where self-driving technology is needed now more than ever, and this partnership is a huge validator of the increasing demand for autonomous solutions. By deploying more vehicles and introducing Olli to new, complex scenarios on public and private roads, we can provide safe, sustainable, and comfortable experiences for all riders now and in the future."..." Read more
Hmmm....Nice, watch / listen ZoomCast with Local Motors CEO Jay Rodgers'95. Alain
Fear of Public Transit Got Ahead of the Evidence
J. Sadik-Khan, June 14, "The headline of the report read like the title of a 1950s horror film: "The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City." As America's densest city became the epicenter of a national pandemic in March, New York's subway system, which carried 5.5 million people on an average workday in 2019, emerged as the villain from central casting. Landing in mid-April, the report, written by an MIT economics professor, concluded that New York's subway system was "a major disseminator—if not the principal transmission vehicle" in the city's COVID-19 outbreak.
Ominous articles citing the report created an uproar during the opening weeks of the pandemic. Some elected officials urged Governor Andrew Cuomo to shut down New York's transit system. Conservative commentators, long skeptical of public transportation, seized on the MIT report as more evidence of transit's unviability.
In recent months, public-health experts in the United States have urged people to avoid crowds, enclosed spaces, and time spent in close contact with others—each a feature of a normally functioning transit system. The notion that subways themselves were seeding disease interrupted this social contract and also played to long-standing fears of urban spaces.... " Read more
Hmmm.... All of this MUST be taken very seriously because Transportation's most major challenge by a long shot is ride-sharing. Essentially every major issue.. affordability, congestion, the environment, energy,... is caused by the lack of ride sharing. In the past ride-sharing has focused on many people riding togther to address the affordability challenge because the human driver costs money. Either lots of riders each pitch in to pay for the driver, aka conventional mass transit, or enslave yourself to do it for free. Most people are willing to do that only for themselves. Doing the driving for free is arguably the fundamental basis for the private automobile and it is the driver's predisposition to do it for free only for themselves that creates the problems of congestion, pollution, ...
The other possibility is to have a gizmo do the driving. Rails only do the steering so they aren't much help by themselves without encasement (keeping other things out of the way). Easy to do in elevators, thus tall buildings became affordable to use. Doable in highly controllable environments like airports where the demand is naturally concentrated.. Also doable when there are many going between few places or underground. The high cost of tunnel construction allows only a few places can be interconnected affordably.
The big opportunity with Driverless is that the gizmo replacing the driver may well become very inexpensive and is NOT fundamentally predisposed to do it only for itself, or one passenger. It doesn't mind doing it for just two or three, even if that's all that could readily travel together. Doubling the Average Vehicle Occupancy for all vehicle trips solves the congestion, energy, pollution and affordability challenges of mobility.
Pre-covid19 that predisposition was engendered by social distancing norms that had a chance of being addressed. If there is anything nice that can be said about "9-11" is that it brought New Yorkers closer together. Reduced Social Distancing. Unfortunately Covid-19 has demonized social closeness instead of physical closeness. bans on physical closeness can be lifted as soon as the pandemic ends. The mentality against social closeness may well take very much longer to dissipate. Alain
COVID-19 and Public Transportation: Current Assessment, Prospects, and Research Needs
A. Tirachini, July 2020 "The COVID-19 pandemic poses a great challenge for contemporary public transportation worldwide, resulting from an unprecedented decline in demand and revenue. In this paper, we synthesize the state-of-the-art, up to early June 2020, on key developments regarding public transportation and the COVID-19 pandemic, including the different responses adopted by governments and public transportation agencies around the world, and the research needs pertaining to critical issues that minimize contagion risk in public transportation in the so-called post-lockdown phase. While attempts at adherence to physical distancing (which challenges the very concept of mass public transportation) are looming in several countries, the latest research shows that for closed environments such as public transportation vehicles, the proper use of face masks has significantly reduced the probability of contagion. The economic and social effects of the COVID-19 outbreak in public transportation extend beyond service performance and health risks to financial viability, social equity, and sustainable mobility. ..." Read more
Hmmm... More on what we'll need to do moving forward. Thank you Robin Chase and Carlos Pardo. Alain
Editorial JTH 16 –The Coronavirus Disease COVID-19 and implications for transport and health
C. Musselwhite, Apr 4, "...Although it was found that the use of crowded public transport vehicles can be associated with the acquisition of infectious diseases, it can be argued that these findings do not support the effectiveness of suspending mass urban transport systems as a pandemic countermeasure aimed at reducing or slowing population spread because, whatever the relevance of public transport is to individual-level risk, household exposure most likely poses a greater threat" (Williams et al., 2010; Cooley et al., 2011)...." Read more
Hmmm... Thank you Carlos Pardo.
More from Carlos...
Japan
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/japan-ends-its-covid-19-state-emergency
"Reassuringly, they did not trace any clusters to Japan's notoriously packed commuter trains. Oshitani says riders are usually alone and not talking to other passengers. And lately, they are all wearing masks. "An infected individual can infect others in such an environment, but it must be rare," he says. He says Japan would have seen large outbreaks traced to trains if airborne transmission of the virus was possible"
Austria:
("Out of 297 local clusters, none was related to public transport")
Singapore: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/shreya-gadepalli-9a48591b_lawrence-wong-co-chair-of-singapore-ministerial-activity-6675929081944543232-IxFg
"Lawrence Wong co-chair of Singapore Ministerial Covid19 Task Force: 'We have evidence that the risk of spreading the virus in gatherings and social interactions is much higher than in public transport where people wear masks, don't talk and travel in disinfected vehicles for a short time'"
"Sorry for bugging everyone with more info, but this point is crucial: the five key factors that we've identified and that we want to publish soon (well, I guess not just we, but at least we have been more insistent in our specific recommendations to public transport) are more useful - no particular order: 1- Cleanliness (which everyone knows already for a while) 2- Wearing a mask (which we all know but few are doing...) 3- Being silent (which, unless you have a friend or are singing for money, isn't a huge problem in transit) 4- Distancing (we have heard the 6 feet endlessly, but see more below) 5- The ventilation system of the vehicle (which is a huge super technical issue that implies doing aerodynamic analysis etc - I wanted to share some of that but we're not allowed to yet - but it can be summarized as "open your windows wide and always, and confirm that your AC is very good at "renovating" or otherwise don't use it)). 6- The duration of the trip (anything after 15 min is problematic)
So when you look at the above, you can already note that the combination of all 5 factors creates a situation where there is little to no contagion (see Japan, Paris trains as described in links below, no contagion associated to their use), but if you are missing one or more it becomes complicated. So in ridesharing you may have leeway because you can open the doors, but in elevators you have to be more careful since air renovation is extremely poor BUT the trip is really short.
I hope that helps. And I hope we can publish some of this soon so that I can share it more officially and better explained. And as you notice, I am very happy expanding my views on the topic!
Carlos." Thank you Carlos! Alain
First Packages, Then People – Potential Implications of the Amazon-Zoox Deal
K. Pyle, July 21, "Will package delivery via autonomous vehicles provide a path for those people who can least afford mobility, the so-called mobility disadvantaged? Specifically, does Amazon's purchase of Zoox hint at a world where the world's largest online seller becomes the low-cost people mover? And, if so, what are the implications for public spaces, the built environment, and human-to-human interaction?..." Read more
Hmmm.... Excellent summary of our latest DriveTheDebate. Thank you Ken. Alain
Tesla stock soars more than 5% after company reports surprise Q2 profit, on track for S&P 500
C. Assis, July 22, "Tesla Inc. stock rose more than 5% late Wednesday after the Silicon Valley car maker reported a second-quarter GAAP and adjusted profit, setting it on a course to join the S&P 500 index and surprising investors as most of the quarter was beset with coronavirus-related stoppages.
Tesla (TSLA) said it earned $104 million, or 50 cents a share, in the quarter, contrasting with a loss of $408 million, or $2.31 a share, in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted for one-time items, Tesla earned $2.18 a share, swinging from an adjusted loss of $1.12 a share a year ago. Sales fell 5% to $6.04 billion from $6.35 billion a year ago.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected an adjusted loss of 2 cents a share on sales of $5.15 billion.
"Demand is not our problem," Chief Executive Elon Musk told analysts on a conference call after the results. Most of the challenges, including some parts shortages, are related to supply-chain and production issues, he said. "Don't worry about demand, that's not the issue."..." Read more
Hmmm.... Wow! See also Fred Lambert's take: Tesla (TSLA) releases Q2 2020 result: delivers profit and crushes expectations Alain
Tesla's insane stock price makes sense in a market gone mad
Russ Mitchell, July 22. "Like a SpaceX rocket lofting a Tesla Roadster into orbit, Tesla stock is on a vertical trip into outer space. Since March, the electric car maker's share price has more than quadrupled to a mind-boggling market value of $290 billion.
That makes Tesla, which reported second-quarter earnings Wednesday, the world's highest valued car company — if far from the largest. Of the 90 million cars sold around the world in 2019 Tesla sold 367,000. Take the two top-selling carmakers in the world, Toyota and Volkswagen, toss in Ford; the stock market still values Tesla higher than all three combined.
On Monday, Tesla stock climbed nearly 10%, adding $26.5 billion to its market value in a single day. It pulled back 4.5% on Tuesday, to $1,568.36 a share, then closed up about 1.5% Wednesday. Shares spiked more than 5% in after-hours trading when Tesla reported a net quarterly profit of $104 million.
Even Jim Cramer, the CNBC personality who has hyped Tesla stock plenty in the past, is astounded. Asked about Tesla stock on Twitter on Monday, he wrote: "I don't even know if it is a stock. it is something else entirely, like a new species discovered in the wild."
Or maybe it's a more familiar beast, only supercharged. Tesla's bewildering ascent makes more sense when you think of it as a hyper-exaggerated product of — and maybe metaphor for — a stock market that itself has stopped making sense, at least by conventional measures...." Read more
Hmmm.... The market now has a New Normal. See also: Tesla, posting a crucial profit, unveils Austin factory plan Alain
California DMV allows AutoX to test autonomous cars without drivers behind the wheel
K. Wiggers, July 17, "The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) today awarded autonomous car startup AutoX a permit authorizing it to test driverless vehicles on streets within a designated part of San Jose. While AutoX has had state authority to pilot vehicles with safety drivers since 2017, the new license allows the company to test one autonomous vehicle without a driver behind the wheel on streets around its San Jose headquarters.
With the permit — the third-ever awarded in California's history, following issuances to Waymo and Nuro — AutoX will be able to drive its test vehicles in "fair weather conditions" and light precipitation on streets at speeds not exceeding 45 miles per hour. Currently, 62 companies have an active permit to test autonomous vehicles with a safety driver.
AutoX, which recently launched robo-taxi services in Shenzhen and Shanghai involving fleets as large as 100 cars, was founded by former Princeton University assistant professor Xiao Jianxiong, who also serves as the company's CEO. Xiao launched AutoX in 2016 with the goal of "democratizing" autonomy through a full-stack system — AI Driver — packing solid-state lidar sensors, high-definition cameras, and a computer that acts as the brains of the system. He often claims that part of the company's secret sauce is a custom-designed control unit dubbed the XCU, which ostensibly delivers faster processing speed and more computational capability than competing solutions.. .... " Read more
Hmmm... Congratulations JianXiong!! Non-trivial accomplishment. Alain
Aurora will test its fleet of self-driving cars and semi trucks in Texas
A. Hawkins, July 20, "Aurora, the startup founded by former lead engineer for Google's self-driving project Chris Urmson, is bringing its fleet of test vehicles to Texas. It's the latest company to shift resources to the Lone Star State, which has quickly become a hotbed of autonomous vehicle testing.
Aurora says it is bringing a "small" fleet of vehicles to the Dallas-Fort Worth area within the next few weeks. The company tests out its autonomous vehicle hardware and software in both Chrysler Pacifica minivans — also popular with Urmson's former employers at Waymo (née Google) — and Class 8 tractor trailers. Aurora says its first commercial service will be in trucking "where the market is largest today, the unit economics are best, and the level of service requirements is most accommodating.".... " Read more
Hmmm... Excellent. Alain
Why some self-driving startups reject Google's "moonshot" approach
T. Lee, July 21, "Progress on self-driving technology has been slower than many people expected just a few years ago. Google's Waymo was aiming to launch a fully driverless taxi service by the end of 2018 but missed its deadline. GM's Cruise abandoned plans to launch a commercial service in 2019. Tesla has repeatedly fallen short of Elon Musk's optimistic timelines for delivering fully self-driving technology.
This isn't a crisis for these companies. They have plenty of cash and can keep working on the problem as long as they need to. But it is a big challenge for some of their competitors: independent self-driving startups that rely on venture capital to stay afloat. As the timeline for self-driving technology has stretched out, fundraising has gotten more difficult.
"Given the amount of resources required to develop an autonomous vehicle, it never made sense to have dozens of companies doing the same thing," said Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Guidehouse Insights. "There was always going to be a shake-out." ...
Some of these smaller startups believe they can bring their products to market at a fraction of the cost of the big guys. Voyage raised $31 million last September. May Mobility raised $22 million in February 2019 and another $50 million in December. Optimus Ride raised "nearly $50 million" last November." Read more
Hmmmm.... . Alain
Autonomous Vehicles, Mobility, and Employment Policy: The Roads Ahead
J. Leonard, July 2020, "Fully autonomous cars, trucks, and buses, able to operate across wide geographical areas with no drivers necessary, would revolutionize ground transportation. The number of accidents and fatalities could drop significantly. Time that people waste stuck in traffic could be recovered for work or leisure. Urban landscapes would change, requiring less parking and improving safety and efficiency for all. New models for the distribution of goods and services—the "physical internet"—would emerge as robotic vehicles move people and objects effortlessly through the world, on demand. ...
KEY FINDINGS:
• The widespread deployment of fully automated driving systems that have no safety driver onboard will take at least a decade. Winter climates and rural areas will experience still longer transitions.
• Expansion will likely be gradual and will happen region-by-region in specific categories of transportation, resulting in wide variations in availability across the country. ... "Read more
Hmmmm.... "Widespread" isn't defined so the first bullet is "whatever". The fact is that we haven't even started yet with the game changer... "no safety driver onboard" (except for a very small amount of rides in Chandler). Safety improvements will kick in for cars that we all drive else it is more of the same. Alain
Mobileye expands Ford partnership to power driver-assist features
K. Wiggers, July 20, "Mobileye, Intel's driverless vehicle R&D division, today expanded its partnership with Ford to offer camera-based detection capabilities for the automaker's advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). Mobileye will provide its suite of EyeQ sensing technologies to bolster features available through Ford's Co-Pilot 360 suite, including lane-keeping, pedestrian and cyclist detection, auto high beam headlamps, pre-collision assist with automatic emergency braking, and adaptive cruise control with stop-and-go and lane-centering.
Mobileye's collaboration with Ford isn't new — the two companies have been working together for years — but it's the first time Ford has committed to the company's solutions for the lifecycle of its cars. Moreover, it marks the start of a Ford pilot to evaluate Mobileye's Roadbook platform, which leverages anonymized, crowdsourced data from vehicle cameras to build a high-definition map for autonomous navigation and localization.
Along with its EyeQ family of devices, Mobileye says it will supply vision-processing software to support level 1 and level 2 driver-assist systems in Ford cars globally as a part of the expanded partnership. .... " Read more
Hmmm... Good. Alain
Elon Musk on Tesla Self-Driving: 'I can almost go from my house to work with no intervention'
F. Lambert, July 23,"Elon Musk said that he is testing Tesla's latest alpha built of its self-driving system and claim that he can "almost" go from his house to work without intervention. ...." Read more
Hmmmm... Unfortunately, the "almost" implies that if Elon stops paying attention or hops in the back seat, or therwise misbehaves he is likely to die. Please don't. We all love you! Alain
Roman""> DraftPrinceton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Postponed until Evening Oct. 20 through Oct. 22, 2020 (But will likely need to be completely Virtual, possibly in "Second life") A. Kornhauser, Feb 6, "The focus of the Summit this year will be moving beyond the AI and the Sensors to addressing the challenges of Commercialization and the delivery of tangible value to communities. We've made enormous progress with the technology. We're doing the investment; however, this investment delivers value only if is commercialized: made available and is used by consumers in large numbers. Demos and one-offs are "great", but to deliver value that is anywhere near commensurate with the magnitude of the investment made to date, initial deployments need to scale. We can't just have "Morgantown PRT Systems" whose initial deployment has been nothing but enormously successful for 45 years (an essentially perfect safety record, an excellent availability record and customer valued mobility). Unfortunately, the system was never expanded or duplicated anywhere. It didn't scale. It is a one-off.
Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale. In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va. which became the reference for many other cites. "... By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague's equipment had been begun or planned on several continents..." Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology. It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.
In part, the 4th Summit will focus on defining the "Richmond" of Affordable Shared-ride On-demand Mobility-as-a-Service. The initial Operational Design Domain (ODD) that safely accommodates Driverless Mobility Machines that people actually choose to use and becomes the envy of communities throughout the Program is in flux. Consider all named individuals as "Invited yet to be confirmed". Alain
C'mon Man!(These
folks didn't get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
Calendar
of Upcoming Events:s
Popular "Shark Tank" Moderated by Richard Mudge
Thursday, July 30
Two Sessions:@ 1pm & 2pm New York Time
Roman""> DrivingTheDebate Episode 006 AV Shark-Tank:
Topic to be announced
August 10 @ 2pm New York Time
to be Virtual, Evening Oct. 20 -> Oct 22.
SmartDrivingCar Summit
Princeton University Princeton, NJ
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 165, ZoomCast Episode165 w/Michael Sena
F. Fishkin 16, "Is the option to buy a car at a dealership going to vanish? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena has a provocative perspective in this edition with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..an update on the Amazon Zoox deal, autonomous vehicles and how they can help battle discrimination in transportation, TuSimple, Mobileye, Uber, Tesla and more." ... Alain SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast 164 Episode 164, Zoom-Cast Episode 163 w/Robbie Diamond
F. Fishkin, July 9, "Fostering economic opportunity through autonomous technology is the focus of an upcoming report from Security America's Future Energy. Founder and CEO Robbie Diamond shares details and more in this edition with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus ..are armed police officers really needed for traffic enforcement? And the latest from Tesla, Waymo and more. ..." ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 163, Zoom-Cast Episode 163 w/Henry Greenidge F. Fishkin, July 2, "Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. ." ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 162, Zoom-Cast Episode 162 w/Cliff Winston
F. Fishkin, June 25, "From the Brookings Institution, Cliff Winston, co-author of Autonomous Vehicles...The Road to Economic Growth? joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..why are fatal crash rates rising in the midst of a pandemic...plus NVIDIA, Didi, Tesla and more."
... Alain Roman""> DrivingTheDebate Episode 004 Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
F. Fishkin, June 23, "But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about ..."
-
Zoom-inar (Video replay) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
-
PodCast (Audio Only) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
Hmmm... We only scratched the surface. Alain SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 161, Zoom-Cast Episode 161 w/Alberto Stochino
F. Fishkin, June 17, "Is less data sometimes more when it comes to driverless vehicle technology? Perceptive Founder and CEO Alberto Stochino joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the DOT's new plan for sharing autonomous safety information, the latest from Tesla, EVs from China and more." ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 160, Zoom-Cast Episode 160 w/Jessica Cicchino
F. Fishkin, June 12, "Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Research VP Jessica Cicchino co-authored a new study saying self driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to discuss the study. Plus the latest on Tesla, Ford & VW, Covid-19 and more. " "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 159, Zoom-Cast Episode 159 w/Kara Kockelman
F. Fishkin, June 4, "Prof. Kara Kockelman's focus on smart transportation to save lives, money and the environment has made her a sought after global expert. The U. of Texas Transportation Engineering Professor joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on the impact of Covid-19 and much more. Plus Tesla, Uber, Argo AI and the top smart driving headlines. For more on Dr. Kockelman's work....please visit... http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman."
DrivingTheDebate Episode 003 Everyone's for Connectivity; but... F. Fishkin, June 2, "But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about ..."
-
Zoom-inar (Video replay) Everyone's for Connectivity; but...
-
PodCast (Audio Only) Everyone's for Connectivity; but...
Hmmm... We only scratched the surface. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 158, Zoom-Cast Episode 158 w/Chunka Mui
F. Fishkin, May 28, "In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, what are the smartest ways to re-build and plan for the future? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Amazon, Zoox, Intel Mobileye, Tesla, Uber and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 157, Zoom-Cast Episode 157 w/Grayson Brulte
F. Fishkin, May 21, "Global auto makers must completely re-think their autonomous mobility strategy as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. So says innovation strategist Grayson Brulte of Brulte & Company....who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Waymo, Tesla, Uber and more."
DrivingTheDebate Episode 002 The Future of Public Roadway Transit F. Fishkin, May 14, "Will the Bus be Thrown Under the Bus?...
-
Zoom-inar Video (Video replay)Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
-
PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 156, Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 156 w/Danny Shapiro2
F. Fishkin, May 14, "With new hardware and software capabilities NVIDIA is expanding into new areas of driver assistance technology. Sr. Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Waymo, Voyage, Ford and more. listen and subscribe!" "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 155, Zoom-Cast Episode 155 w/Alex Roy2
F. Fishkin, April 29, "The continuing impact of Covid-19 on autonomous vehicle progress. But it may not be all bad news. Alex Roy...host of the No Parking Podcast and Director of Special Operations at Argo AI joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Intel, Lyft, Uber and more. Listen and subscribe!"
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 154, Zoom-Cast Episode 154 w/Dan Sperling
F. Fishkin, April 29, "Can ride sharing rebound after the pandemic? Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo, Ford and more."
DrivingTheDebate Episode 001 The Driverless "New Normal" Debate F. Fishkin, April 27,
-
SmartDrivingCar PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Driverless New Normal Debate
-
Zoom Audience Questions (Only a few were addressed in Zoom-inar)
-
Zoom Audience Comments
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 153, Zoom-Cast Episode 153 w/Dick Mudge2
F. Fishkin, April 17, "The plummeting price of oil and what it may mean for mobility, ride sharing and the economy.. Dick Mudge, founder and president of Compass Transportation & Technology joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus GM, Uber and more on the Coronavirus impact."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 152, Zoom-Cast Episode 152 w/Brad Templeton
F. Fishkin, April 17, "Can robotaxis survive a pandemic? Internet pioneer, self driving car consultant and author Brad Templeton joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in a wide ranging chat on the impact today and the future. Plus...Uber, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla and more." "
SmartDrivingCars Podcast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop F. Fishkin, March 26, "The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also...Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!" ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop Video version... Watch our first attempt.... Alain
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Mach 14, "From Sweden...The Dispatcher editor Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin as Covid-19 takes a toll on Waymo, Uber and more. Plus Saving the Car Industries in the U.S. and the EU... the latest from Future Networked Car 2020 in Geneva and more." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes
F. Fishkin, Feb 15, "What shifting populations mean for the future of mobility and transportation. Leading expert Jim Hughes of Rutgers University joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Tesla, GM, Comma AI's inexpensive autopilot, Aptiv, Lyft and more. Tune in and subscribe! "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy
F. Fishkin, Feb 7, "The latest glossary of BS in mobility, self driving and autonomy from author, podcaster and cannonball driver Alex Roy on Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the news from Tesla, Nuro, Waymo, GM and more! " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O'Toole
F. Fishkin, Jan 25, "Adaptive cruise control and self driving tech may lead to more urban sprawl. But the Cato Institute's Randal O'Toole says maybe that isn't a bad thing. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Subaru's tech, GM's Cruise, Tesla and more on the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This edition is sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information…head to www.motoetf.com "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart
F. Fishkin, Jan 18, "The new mobility on the ground and in the air. Nicolas Zart joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for a discussion on Urban Air Mobility...plus..Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Mobileye, Waymo and more in this edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136
F. Fishkin, Jan 6, "He's back! Princeton's Alain Kornhauser...still on the mend ...but opinionated as ever...joins co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the latest from Waymo, Tesla and more in Episode 136 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson
F. Fishkin, Dec 5, "In this special edition... the launch of a new exchange traded fund focused on smart transportation and technology. Guinness Atkinson Asset Management CEO Jim Atkinson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus..a push by the Coalition for Future Mobility for action in Washington, AutoX wants driverless testing in California and Aptiv grows in Pittsburgh. "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Nov. 1, "An updated outlook for automated vehicles...Tesla, Waymo , Ford, VW and more. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by guests Michael Sena and Dick Mudge in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit Leilei Shinohara & Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena'69
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55 Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy
Recent Highlights of:
OEMs Driving Toward Relevance or Perdition
M. Sena, August 2020, "Are we ready to be online carscribers? Online new car sales and car subscription programs, now being pursued simultaneously by car OEMs, will either lead the OEMs to endless highways paved with gold or two large dead ends. Each of these approaches to putting customers behind the wheel of a car are aimed at different pain points—real or perceived—in the purchase process. With online sales, the customer is in theory spared the visit to car dealers except. Car subscription programs go one step further. The customer is also decoupled from the dealer and in addition is, in theory, shielded from having to care about most of the responsibilities related to car ownership. Who benefits, who thinks they benefit and who loses, either in the short term or in the long term. Continue reading
Dispatch Central: Battery Electric Vehicle News Continue reading
Musings of a Dispatcher: The Way Forward: We Continue to Wander in the DesertContinue reading
Postscript on the China Series: In The disciples of liberal democracy can be forgiven for believing that China would become one of them if it was invited into the World Trade Organization. It was their belief—hope—that more trade with liberal democracies would would make China a libral democracy that drove the decision to open up to China. Although Continue reading..." Read more
Hmmm.... Listen to PodCast 165 or watch ZoomCast 165. Alain
Fostering Economic Opportunity through Autonomous Vehicle Technology July 8, "SAFE invites you to join us for the release of "Fostering Economic Opportunity through Autonomous Vehicle Technology", our new paper that addresses how autonomous vehicles (AVs) and autonomous transit can redress imbalances for low-income communities, whose options are limited by inadequacies in today's transportation.
To mark the launch of the paper, SAFE is holding a panel event on July 16 at 2:00pm ET. Alisyn Malek, SAFE, will be moderating a conversation between:
-
Courtney Ehrlichman, CEO, Ehrlichman Group
-
Dr. Richard Ezike, Senior Policy Associate, The Urban Institute
-
Dr. Alain Kornhauser, Director of the Program in Transportation, Princeton University
SAFE would appreciate you joining us for what we expect will be an illuminating discussing on transportation's role in limiting economic opportunities for millions of Americans, and how AVs and autonomous transit can be part of the solutio..." Read more
Hmmm.... Watch today's PodCast and join in on July 16. Alain
Announcing 2020-2021 Fellow-in-Residence Henry L. Greenidge, Esq. Press release, June 24, "The McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy and Research at New York University has announced transportation policy expert Henry L. Greenidge, Esq. as a 2020-2021 Fellow-in-Residence. ...
"As New York City and cities around the nation reopen amid COVID-19, there is an important conversation to be had about the intersection of transportation policy with poverty, race and class. In a field where there are too few thought leaders of color, Henry Greenidge's industry expertise and distinguished track record of public service make him an invaluable addition to the NYU McSilver team," says Michael A. Lindsey, PhD, MSW, MPH, Executive Director of the institute.
"Race and transportation have been inextricably linked since the first slave ship crossed the Americas," says Henry Greenidge. "As our nation continues to grapple with institutional racism, which serves as the fabric for every facet of the United States, the inequities of transportation policies must be at the center. I am humbled and excited to be working with the McSilver Institute to unpack how transportation, race, and poverty intersect.." Read more
Hmmm.... In no uncertain terms, we must make sure that inequities and racism are not explicitly nor even implicitly baked into the SmartDrivingCar r/evolution. We are still at the very beginning, so it shouldn't be hard nor expensive but so far it doesn't look good. The emphasis has been on giving those that already have fantastic ways to get around one more way. The focus hasn't been on the mobility disadvantaged and certainly not on the Black community. Just look where the testing has been taking place and the folks that take part in the focus groups and those that are given rides. Look at who designs and writes the software and the investors. Sure, one can and should serve them, but if public policy is going to play a role, then it can't bake in more inequities. Moreover, the private sector can also step up and realize that these systems can readily serve everyone. The technology that makes SmartDrivingCars possible is not inherently racists. It can respect and serve everyone. Henry and others can help make sure that the designers and deployers of SmartDrivingCars don't explicitly nor implicitly bake in racism and bias. Alain
Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates Jump 36.6% in April Despite Quarantines, Says National Safety Council
Press release, June 24, " Preliminary estimates based on April data from all 50 states indicate that for the second straight month, Americans did not reap any safety benefit from having less roadway traffic. In fact, the roads became even more lethal as miles driven plummeted. Preliminary estimates from the National Safety Council show a year-over-year 36.6% jump in fatality rates per miles driven in April, in spite of an 18% drop in the total number of roadway deaths compared to April 2019. The actual number of miles driven dropped 40% compared to the same time period last year. The mileage death rate per 100 million vehicle miles driven was 1.47 in April compared to 1.08 in 2019....
"Even without traffic, our roads were no safer," said Lorraine M. Martin, president and CEO of the National Safety Council. "It is heartbreaking to see the carnage on our roadways continue, especially when our medical professionals should be able to focus intently on treating a pandemic rather than preventable car crashes. These numbers underscore our urgent need to change the culture of safety on our roads." .." Read more
Hmmm.... Wow!!! Does COVID-19 have any silver linings?? So highway deaths aren't as well correlated to VMT as we/I had thought. what are the other big terms is the relationship? Alcohol consumption?, Speed?, all the safe drivers staying home and only the high liability drivers (teenagers and Generation COVIDs out there texting??? Alain
U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao Announces First Participants in New Automated Vehicle Initiative to Improve Safety, Testing, and Public Engagement
Press release, June 15, "The U.S. Department of Transportation today announced nine companies and eight States that have signed on as the first participants in a new Department initiative to improve the safety and testing transparency of automated driving systems, the Automated Vehicle Transparency and Engagement for Safe Testing (AV TEST) Initiative. The participating companies are Beep, Cruise, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Local Motors, Navya, Nuro, Toyota, Uber, and Waymo. The States are California, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Utah.
"Through this initiative, the Department is creating a formal platform for Federal, State, and local government to coordinate and share information in a standard way," said U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao. ...
This initiative aligns with the Department's leadership on automated driving system vehicles, including AV 4.0: Ensuring American Leadership in Automated Vehicle Technologies." Read more
Hmmm... Excellent. This is really good because it is promotes and organizes the open sharing of safety information assoiated with automated driving. This is extremely important because safety of these systems is a necessary condition for their adoption.
Unfortunately, a few things seem to be missing from the announcement.
-
a budget (Washington may not have any money left after COVID-19),
-
any mention of mobility for people or for goods. The testing of safety is conducted without doing any useful mobility, but the value of testing is derived from the delivery of that mobility. Safety in that context requires the active engagement the entities that are being transported. It is very important that this initiative include potential customers and neighborhoods whose streets such automation might use, and
-
the whole Northeast including New Jersey seems to have not "signed on", nor is Ford/Argo, Zooks, Aurore, Voyage Amazon, Apple.... Alain
Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19, June 12, 2020 R. Dale Hall, June 12, "...By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines...." Read more
Hmmm... Excellent! An enormous amount here. See especially FIg 11 and 17. These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, ... An enormous amount to digest here. Excellent. Alain
Two-way Vehicle Connectivity is a Three-sided Coin That Everyone Wants to Own M. Sena, May 26, "Two-way vehicle connectivity has three facets. Two of them are mainly of interest to vehicle OEMs and their suppliers. They are vehicle-centric and customer-centric. Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency notification, logistics tracking and over-the-air updating. Customer centric connectivity includes many services that are also provided by mobile apps outside of the vehicle, such as music streaming, workshop service booking, traffic notifications and car sharing applications. Two-way vehicle connectivity today is a major competitive factor for the OEMs.
The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it....
But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about..." Read more
Hmmmm... The provacateur's lead at the beginning of our 3rd Shark-Tank Zoom-inar (Video, Audio) Alain
Luminaries Battle In Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate About The Future Of Self-Driving Cars Lance Eliot, April 28, "Several self-driving car luminaries assembled online via a Zoom-casted battleground this week to undertake a Lincoln-Douglas style debate about the future of the Autonomous Vehicle (AV) self-driving car industry and the advent of AI-driven mobility.
Originally scheduled for one hour, the dialogue and fielding of audience questions prompted the superstars to keep going, tackling many of the most vexing and unsolved matters that underlie the potential success of self-driving vehicles, encompassing both autonomous cars and autonomous trucks.
The lively discussion was civil and polite, fortunately so in these times of seemingly stark polarization and guttural attacks during our contemporary public discourse. Yet, even in the realm of eloquent argumentation, at times the gloves came off and there were some fierce zingers and moments of rather piercing cut-the-air-with-a-knife verbal sparring..." Read more
Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for the kind and thorough synopsis of our 1st Zoom-inar. We were all pleased by the turnout, interaction and substance. Alain
What Negative Oil Prices Mean and How the Impact Could Last V. Bajaj, April 22,"A main benchmark for the price of oil fell negative for the first time ever this week. The decline — more than 300 percent in daily trading — raised fresh questions about the damage the coronavirus is having on the global economy.
What does it mean for oil prices to be negative?
A benchmark price for a barrel of oil to be delivered next month fell to -$37.63 on Monday, which means that sellers would have to pay someone that much to take it off their hands.
But that historic plunge was exacerbated by a quirk in how the oil markets work.
The negative price concerned only contracts for delivery of barrels in May that are traded on so-called futures markets. At the same time trading happens for May deliveries, people trade on contracts ending in June, in July and so on." Read more
Hmmmm... What??? I realize that I'm often "out of it", but... In all my life I have NEVER... thought of, let alone mentioned, nor have heard anyone else mention the concept of negative oil! Often, talked about $150/B oil, $250/B, S20/B even $7/B oil. NEVER $0/B oil, negative Oil... NEVER,NEVER, NEVER!!!! and look where we are. UNBELIEVABLE!!! Implications:... no one's models extrapolate to that regime. (it requires extrapolation because no data exists in this unimaginable region. Listen to Pod-Cast; Watch Zoom-Cast Alain
Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead? R. Bishop, Mar 24, "I met Stefan Seltz-Axmacher for the first time in November 2015 at the Florida Automated Vehicles Summit. Not long after, we met at the Blue Danube coffee shop in Alameda, CA so he could tell me about his vision for Starsky Robotics. When he energetically described his remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. "Remote driving is hard," I said. "The military has struggled with this for years. Its harder than it looks." On the technical side, latency for secure communications is challenging. On the operational side, re-creating enough on-road reality (situational awareness) for a remote driver is difficult when going for the high levels of safety needed. Seltz-Axmacher remained bullish on the approach and at that time went on to found Starsky Robotics as one of the earliest truck AV startups, later closing a $16.5M Series A funding round in March 2018, and then hauling freight while developing both remote and automated driving ability. Initially, Starsky's concept was all about remote driving for first/last mile. They later expanded their offering to include fully automated highway driving on limited freight corridors.
Now, Starsky has become the first casualty within a crowded truck automation space, and Seltz-Axmacher has provided us with an intriguing post-mortem in a recent Medium post. Most of the media coverage I've seen has acted as echo chambers for Seltz-Axmacher's perspective. Here I offer a counterpoint based on my longtime involvement in truck automation plus discussions with many others in the truck Automated Driving Systems (ADS) startup space, many of them irate at what they see as unfounded assertions made in the original post. My sources tell me that because Seltz-Axmacher hasn't experienced their technology nor been briefed on their technical/safety approach, he has no basis to make sweeping claims about the entire industry...." Read more
Hmmmm... Listen to PodCast 148. or/and Watch us on YouTube. Alain
Waymo suspends robotaxi service except for its truly driverless vehicles K. Korosec, Mar. 17, "Waymo said Tuesday it is pausing operations of Waymo One, a service in the Phoenix area that allows the public to hail rides in self-driving vehicles with trained human safety operators behind the wheel, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Waymo is also halting testing on public roads in California.
However, Waymo will keep some operations up and running, notably its truly driverless vehicles, which don't require a human safety driver, according to an announcement on its website Tuesday. These driverless vehicles are used in the Phoenix area as part of Waymo's early rider program that lets vetted members of the public hail a ride..." Read more Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the latest is not so good... Waymo has suspended all services, including the driverless. Poopie!!! Alain
"Urbs," "Burbs," and the Immigration Locomotive
J. Hughes, Feb 2020, "Even more so than the nation, the broad fourstate, 35-county metropolitan region centered on New York City (figure 1) is becoming afflicted by a condition of demographic stagnation. While the United States has been experiencing the lowest population growth rates since the Great Depression, the region has only recently (2016–2018) slipped into absolute population decline, spawned by domestic outmigration. The major counterforce forestalling a demographic catastrophe has been positive international migration. Immigration has become the primary source of population growth—the demographic locomotive. Without it, the region would have to bear fully the economic consequences of what has become a virtual domestic population hemorrhage—a vast exodus of regional residents moving to the rest of the country. This is just one dimension of endemic demographic change that has swept the post–Great Recession world....
The second new reset is a turnaround of the pattern evidenced in the 2010–2016 period, when population growth in the "urbs" surpassed that of the "burbs." After dominating growth early in the decade (2010–2016), the core—the urban heart of the metropolitan region encompassing New York City and three adjacent counties in New Jersey—suddenly slipped into decline post-2016, causing the region as a whole to lose population. This is the latest transformation in what has become a transmillennial demographic roller coaster ride... " Read more
Hmmmm... Most interesting Demographic Dynamic. A must read. Alain
2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about 'Smaht Pahk'
S. Szymkowski, Jan 27, "Hyundai is going all in on Boston accents and the 2020 Sonata for its Super Bowl advertisement. As is often the trend these days, the ad made its debut on Monday less than a week before the big game, but it's quite a clever spot...." Read more
Hmmmm... This is as irresponsible of Hyundai as StupidSummon is for Tesla. It may even be more irresponsible because Hyundai hasn't included the over-the-air-information system that allows them to monitor its use. Having the car do stuff without an alert and attentive driver in the driver's seat implies liability on them (their system) if something bad happens. Plus, squeezing a car into a parking place when the people can't get into the adjacent cars is not the smartest move unless you've also made the Hyundai key proof. There will be retaliation. Alain
The Disengagement Myth Kyle Vogt, Jan 17, "In a few weeks the California DMV will release disengagements data from Cruise and other companies who test AVs on public roads. This data is really great for giving the public a sense of what's happening on the roads. Unfortunately, it has also been used by the media and others to compare technology from different AV companies or as a proxy for commercial readiness. Since it's the only publicly available metric, I don't really blame them for using it. But it's woefully inadequate for most uses beyond those of the DMV. The idea that disengagements give a meaningful signal about whether an AV is ready for commercial deployment is a myth. ..." Read more
Hmmmm... Amen! This is a MUST read. As with everything, details matter. It is true that figures don't lie, but but it is easy to game systems such that figures, without the underlying details, do lie. As Kyle points out, there are important details associated with disengagements. These need to be well understood for disengagements to be a proxy for safety and market readiness. The when, where and associated details of each disengagement is critically important if the objective is safety and market readiness.
What is also most important here is the underlying objective of the companies doing the tests and reporting the data. As has happened in our secondary education where students are taught what is in and how to take the SATs rather than just learn. The objective is not learning , but getting 800s on the SATs so that they can get into 'Princeton'. This is perpetuated by the 'Princetons' of this world that don't look into the details of the student's academic qualities and capabilities. In the academic world, we know these students as 'box checkers', gamers of the college admission process. The gaming is continued by the 'banks and med schools' that use simplistic GPA (Grade Point Average, aka 'disengagements') cutoffs. The 'box checkers' then take 'underwater basket weaving' courses and become grade grubbers. It is lazy and irresponsible to use simplistic measures as proxies to very complex concepts such as intelligence, creativity, compatibility, and all the other details that make a good student, a good employee, a good citizen, a good mobility system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig". It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? Alain
Hmmmm... Reflections
A. Kornhauser, Jan 12,
Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6,
Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
Chandler unveils drop-off, pick-up zone for self-driving cars G. Zetino, Nov. 25, ""It's about to get easier for self-driving cars to drop off and pick up passengers in Chandler. The city of Chandler, in partnership with Waymo, on Friday unveiled the nation's first drop-off and pick-up zone for autonomous ride-hailing cars.
Hmmmm... The iconic image:
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida R. Wile, Nov 22, "Sen. Jeff Brandes (R-St. Petersburg) had just finished serving in the Army, and was looking to make a name for himself in Tallahassee as a junior representative. He came across a talk given by the founder of Google's driverless car project.
He quickly realized the potential of self-driving cars to transform many aspects of daily life. Ever since, he has made it his mission to turn Florida into what he calls "an angel investor" in automation policy. "We want to have policies in place for this technology to flourish," Brandes said in an interview at the 7th Annual Florida Automated Vehicles conference in Miami, which concluded Friday.
Brandes has drawn headlines in the tech community for filing legislation allowing virtually any automated vehicle on Florida's roads; this summer, he helped make Florida one of the first states to make AVs without a human back-up safety driver street legal.
Among the state's advantages Brandes points to that he believes makes it ideal for AV companies: no snow, which makes lane markings more visible. That also means less road construction in general...." Read more
Hmmmm... Congratulations Jeff!!! It was a great AV Summit and congratulations on creating such a Welcoming environment and intelligently shaping the birth of this technology. What you've done is enable Florida to begin to enhance mobility and the quality of life for all in Florida and especially those who can most benefit from these mobility machines. It was most impressive to witness the enthusiasm for nurturing the many aspects of this technology from Florida's Governor, Miami's Mayor, Fl DoT's Commissioner, the heads of the toll road authorities, planning agencies and educational institutions. Most impressive was Ford's comment that their autonomousTaxi efforts are focused on developing driverless technology and intend to operate it to deliver Mobility-as-a-Service in Florida, rather than sell the technology to individual consumers. I applaud that approach and hope that Ford will look to also bringing some of those vehicles to New Jersey so that we can begin to reap the benefits of this technology. What you've accomplished in Florida is THE "best practice" for us to emulate in New Jersey. Congratulations. Alain
An Update on the Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
September 28, 2019 Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton K. Knapp, Sept 22, "What would it take to make Princeton an accessible community for all, even those who cannot or choose not to own or drive a car? Princeton Future will explore the question at a public forum from 9 a.m. to noon on Sept. 28 in the community room at the Princeton Public Library.
Princeton Future is a non-profit community group that studies issues related to planning, development, and affordability. Speakers will discuss the capabilities of a transit-on-demand system where small, driverless shuttles could be summoned by a smart phone app to a location within walking distance of a resident's home...." Read more
Hmmmm.... Listen to a summary of the event in Episode 126 of the SmartDrivingCars PodCasts. See below for other info. Alain
August 17, 2019
Autonomous Vehicles: A View from Seniors
March 29, 2019
Automated vehicles could provide mobility to the 'mobility disadvantaged'
Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
October 24,
New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles
Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)
Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164 Sponsors: Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)
Oct 16, Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14); Lampitt (D6)..." Read more
Hmmmm.... Things are beginning to move in New Jersey. Alain
Testimony of Alain Kornhauser, Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
June 12, 2018 CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS
3, 2018
Waymo's fleet of self-driving minivans is about to get 100 times bigger
May 25, 2018 PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)
May 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.
...The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency
braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions for detecting driver alertness and road sign information. All these Volvo functions are disabled when the test vehicle is operated in computer control..."Read more
Hmmmm.... Uber must believe that its systems are better at avoiding Collisions and Automated Emergency Braking than Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo "off the hook".
"...According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph..." (= 63 feet/second) So the system started "seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away... more than a football field, including end zones!
"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path..." (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this "object' as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected "future travel paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber's system attached to the "object", then the "vehicle". Why didn't the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision? If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren't they accurate? Why was the object classified as a "Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"? Why did it change classifications? How often was the classification of this object done. Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object. In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a "pedestrian"when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber's Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. ..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle behavior Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating " "erratic vehicle behavior". This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber system's false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.
"...The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. " Wow! If Uber's system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past "Peak valuation".
"...The system is not designed to alert the operator. " That may be the only good part of Uber's design. In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don't waste your time. If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast 30 and the 24 edition of May 10, 2018
March 24, 2018 Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail
April 17, 2017
Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
This list is maintained by Alain Kornhauser and hosted by the Princeton University