2021-03-20
rgb(51, 51, March 19, 2021
blue;
text-decoration:
blue;
text-decoration:
none;">11th
edition of the
9th year of
SmartDrivingCars
eLetter
Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” Beta Is Just Laughably Bad and Potentially Dangerous
M. Hogan, March 19, “A beta version of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” Autopilot update has begun rolling out to certain users. And man, if you thought “Full Self Driving” was even close to a reality, this video of the system in action will certainly relieve you of that notion. It is perhaps the best comprehensive video at illustrating just how morally dubious, technologically limited, and potentially dangerous Autopilot’s “Full Self Driving” beta program is….” Read more Hmmmm… The Videois MUST watch. This is what I would call a “Semi-SelfDriving Alpha” product in this Operational Design Domain (non-dense city/commercial suburban streets, during daylight, in clear weather with moderate temperature conditions).
Drivers have four (4) “responsibilities”. 1. Feet/foot on/near the pedals, 2. Hand(s) on the wheel, 3. Eyes on the road, and 4. Butt in the driver’s seat (and possibly 5…. Have reasonable cognitive brain functions). If the Operational Design Domain is a straight lane with a slight downgrade and nothing else around, my “55 Chevy” can “Self-drive” and even be “Driverless”. I don’t even have to be in it. However, we must all agree, that we can’t call my “55 Chevy” a “Driverless” car. We can’t even call it a Self-driving because I’m going to need to have my butt is the driver’s seat to do something when the ODD changes (the road turns , …) and it is, at best, Semi-Self driving because my eyes will need to be on the road for me to realize that the “55 Chevy” is about to exit its ODD. It is going to need help from me to not crash.
So Elon’s FSD is definitely Semi-SelfDriving because its ODD doesn’t come close to including many of the situations that it found in its video journey above. It is Alpha because any potential user can be expected to have little if any idea what is required to use this product without getting hurt. So, please be very careful out there and don’t stop paying attention to the road ahead!!! Alain
Empathy –> Trust –> Human-Centric Autonomous Mobility Design
K. Pyle, March
20, "To create
successful
mobility
solutions, one
must be
willing to
empathetically
listen to all
people and in
locations that
are convenient
for them. This
is one of the
insights of
Henry
Greenidge,
moderator of
the 3/18/21
Smart Driving
Car Summit
panel, [Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility.](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210318)
As the founder
of [OurMobileFuture](https://ourmobilefuture.com/), a former Cruise
executive and
current
Fellow-In-Residence
at the NYU
McSilver
Institute of
Poverty Policy
&
Research,
Greenidge
brings a big
picture view
that
transcends
silos, which
is exactly
what is needed
to create
people-serving,
autonomous
mobility.
Smart Driving
Car Summit
organizer and
Princeton
Professor,
Alain
Kornhauser,
set the stage
by suggesting
the
measurement of
driverless
success
depends upon
factors such
as: ..." [Read more](https://viodi.com/2021/03/20/empathy-trust-human-centric-autonomous-mobility-design/)
Hmmmm.... We
had another
excellent
Session.
Thank you for
the summary,
Ken. Alain
###
Kornhauser & He, March 2021 “AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative”
Ken Pyle Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
11th Session 3/05/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/05/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
[Michael Sena's Slides](https://www.dropbox.com/s/yfzscinfy41vrka/Sena_Session8%20SDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0),
[Glenn Mercer Slides](https://www.dropbox.com/s/8x4sd97vrifa9r9/Mercer_Session8%20SDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0)
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204,
[Zoom-Cast Episode 204](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5PZ2s_yZHI) w/Andrew
Rose,
President,
OnStar
Insurance
Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, “.With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker’s new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table…and a look at the future of auto insurance..” Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
4th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
13th Live Episode: Live on Zoom
Help for the drivers and help for the logistics companies
noon ET, Thursday, Georgia, serif;”>
Georgia,
serif;"> [Video Summary of 1st Session: Setting the Stage](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCc9N8o1dys&feature=youtu.be)
The
SmartDrivingCars
eLetter,
Pod-Casts,
Zoom-Casts and
Zoom-inars are
made possible
in part by
support from
the Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For
more
information: [www.motoetf.com](https://www.smartetfs.com/). Most funding is
supplied by
Princeton
University's
Department of
Operations
Research &
Financial
Engineering
and Princeton
Autonomous
Vehicle
Engineering
(PAVE)
research
laboratory as
part of its
research
dissemination
initiatives.
The federal government is investigating yet another Tesla Autopilot crash
A. Hawkins, March 10, “The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating another Tesla crash in which Autopilot was allegedly in use.
The crash took
place outside
of Lansing,
Michigan, when
the driver of
a Tesla Model
Y smashed into
a state
trooper's
cruiser.
Michigan
police said
the driver was
using
Autopilot,
Tesla's
advanced
driver-assistance
system (ADAS),
at the time of
the crash. No
one was
injured, but
the government
sent
investigators
to the scene
to determine
how Autopilot
may have
contributed to
the crash...."
[Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/18/22338427/tesla-autopilot-crash-michigan-nhtsa-investigation) Hmmmm...
and…
Tesla is under scrutiny from feds again over crash with semi truck
F. Lambert,
March 16,
"Tesla is
again under
scrutiny from
the US federal
government
over a Tesla
vehicle that
crashed into
the trailer of
a semi truck
in
Detroit...." [Read more](https://electrek.co/2021/03/16/tesla-under-scrutiny-feds-again-over-crash-semi-truck/) Hmmmm...
It is really hard to believe that Tesla hasn’t fixed its Automated Emergency Braking System (AEBs) so as to reliably be able to determine if it can safely pass under a stationary object in its lane ahead, rather than simply assuming that it can and naively “fuhgeddaboudit”. Maybe their radars, cameras and “AI” aren’t up to the task and they need LiDAR. Maybe NHTSA or someone needs to make Tesla liable in these situations until they fix this and put in driver-focused sensors and “AI” that will ensure that the driver is paying attention to the road ahead; else pull over and disable AutoPilot/FSD or whatever Tesla chooses to call these systems.
Tesla’s AEBs don’t work well enough; the driver MUST remain alert ready to assess: “can I pass under that police car parked or that trailer stopped broadside in my lane ahead? Alain
Two states tax some drivers by the mile. Many more want to give it a try.
I. Duncan, March 12, “ Bruce Starr spotted the problem right away: The hydrogen-powered cars General Motors was showing off on the Oregon Capitol grounds wouldn’t need gas. And if they didn’t need gas, drivers wouldn’t be paying gas taxes that fund the state’s roads…. “ Read more Hmmmm… Stop right there… By the time Hydrogen-powered cars have anything more than an infinitesimally small market share that they could affect anything, our children may not even be here any longer. And to use this “fuzz on a tick’s ear” as an excuse to overturn what may well be one of the most elegant (def: simple, effective and pretty much “game proof”) taxing systems ever devised, is truly unbelievable.
There are only two reasons one would want to change the current gas tax system: 1. One has a gizmo/service to sell that will be required to collect that tax and paid for by that collected tax (leaving even less to build new roads, so what?!?!) and/or this is a back-door way to increase the tax rate on everyone.
The beauty of the gas tax is that it is collected from a few “corporates” at the wholesale level who make sure that they are reimbursed by each of the many consumers at the time of their purchase. The same could be true of electrons (or hydrogen) by placing a meter (electric companies already have meters at each house) on the electric plug that could then be used to add the tax onto the cost of the electricity that is being used to recharge the battery. (I’ll start making & selling those meters. 😁)
If you don’t want me to get rich on this, and your agenda is to subsidize the sale and use of electric vehicles, then why not just eliminate most of the transaction costs, by keeping the money in the public treasury, allocating it builders” and not tax the electricity used by electric cars .
Rebates for the purchase of (some) electric cars is/was $7,500. Fuel taxes average about $0.50/gallon and way most are less than $0.75. For a car getting 20 miles/gallon, this is a whopping, $0.025 -> $0.375/mile. That means that means that the $7,500 rebate is equivalent to not paying gas tax for 200,000 -> 300,000 miles of driving; essentially all of the car’s life. (plus that money is upfront, so there is a time-value-of-$$$ benefit here, too). So those that are trying to save the planet and worried they won’t be able to build new roads (and maintain old roads) are promoting a, surely burdensome, new taxing structure on gasoline cars, when a trivial ledger shift would do the same and more??? I don’t get it!! Alain
Motor Vehicle Deaths in 2020 Estimated to be Highest in 13 Years, Despite Dramatic Drops in Miles Driven
March 4, “For the first time since 2007, preliminary data from the National Safety Council show that as many as 42,060 people are estimated to have died in motor vehicle crashes in 2020. That marks an 8% increase over 2019 in a year where people drove significantly less frequently because of the pandemic. The preliminary estimated rate of death on the roads last year spiked 24% over the previous 12-month period, despite miles driven dropping 13%. The increase in the rate of death is the highest estimated year-over-year jump that NSC has calculated since 1924 – 96 years. It underscores the nation’s persistent failure to prioritize safety on the roads, which became emptier but far more deadly…“ Read more Hmmmm… This is REALLY bad and a result of people who drove behaving REALLY bad. Not only did the well-behaving drivers stay home so as to not deflate the “rate per VMT” but the rate itself went up. Since an overwhelming percentage of crashes are due to driver misbehavior, this data point suggests that those misbehaving misbehaved even more. More speeding, more texting, more ……” Not at all good! Alain
Autonomous Delivery Robots Are Now ‘Pedestrians’ in Pennsylvania
S. Blanko, march 7, “A Pennsylvania state law has gone into effect giving delivery drones the right to operate on city sidewalks, and it also classified them as pedestrians.
This makes
Pennsylvania
the latest in
a string of
states, plus
Washington,
D.C., to let
these delivery
robots
maneuver
around
towns...." [Read more](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35756202/autonomous-delivery-robots-pedestrians-law/) Hmmmm... This to me sounds
really bad!
In some/many
communities,
bicycles and
scooters or
anything
motorized are
not permitted
on sidewalks.
This might be
OK because
there really
aren't any of
these delivery
things
anywhere, but
they'll never
be able to
scale where
sidewalks
exist for
people to walk
and few, if
any,
communities
are going to
make
homeowners put
in sidewalks
for these
things. These
things can't
scale. This
won't end
well. Alain
‘You Never Need to Walk Into a Showroom’: Electric Vehicles Are Forcing Car Companies to Rethink Retail
Z. Estrada, March 9, “The days of Southern California’s gigantic car dealerships may be numbered.
That's because
a statewide
push toward
electric
vehicles,
which require
less
maintenance
than
gasoline-powered
cars and can
be sold more
easily online,
is forcing
automakers to
rethink the
retail
experience.
... " [Read more](https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/interactive/2021/electric-mileage-tax/?wpisrc=nl_sb_smartbrief) Hmmmm... What do you think
Sheldon???
Let's see, in
the past
dealerships
helped with
keeping what I
bought working
well. I was
doing all of
the work to
drive it with
comfort and
convenience
items being
limited to "[soft Corinthian leather](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vsg97bxuJnc)".
Now with all
of the
Self-driving
comfort&convenience
features, I'll
have more time
to do more in
and with my
car. Isn't
there a profit
opportunity
somewhere in
there to
provide better
customer
service and to
enhance my
experience
with the car,
rather than to
fix my
problems???
Also, a major problem that Dealerships may have is: there may well be a perception that they are not welcoming to all. They have a “Mad Men” legacy of catering to only one male-kind. Alain
GM says U.S. should extend consumer, investment tax credits to boost electric vehicles
D. Shepardson, March 11, “General Motors President Mark Reuss said Thursday the U.S. government should extend new investment tax credits for electric vehicle manufacturing and supply chains and expand consumer incentives to electric vehicle purchases, including for used vehicles….” “ Read more Hmmmm…The new definition of “Self-serving”. Please look above at a better better way to promote electric cars.
What the public sector should do is to give the dollar equivalent of those subsidies to the road maintenance and building crews instead of “GM” and promote EVs by not ever having them pay any road user tax. The public sector would then be financially net-neutral, at worse. Why not also increase the gas tax on gas guzzlers and become very net-positive. That’s an efficient and likely very effective way to promote EVs Alain
Developing an Autonomous Freight Network within the US regulatory lanscape
A. Davis, March, 9, “The US Department of Transportation has taken many steps over the last five years to clarify the Federal, State and local roles and approaches to automated driving.
However, many
of these
policies are
still in the
process of
being included
in regulations
and laws and
so are not yet
final. There
have been many
discussions
about how the
Biden
Administration
will address
the
developments
made in
autonomous
trucking.
..." [Read more](https://highways.today/2021/03/09/autonomous-freight-network/) Hmmmm... We are about as close
to autonomous
trucking as
Elon is to
FSD. The only
thing that we
are going to
do any time
soon is
substantially
improve the
work
environment of
the [300,000-500,000 trucking jobs.](https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2021-01/Driving%20Automation%20Systems%20in%20Long%20Haul%20Trucking%20and%20Bus%20Transit%20Preliminary%20Analysis%20of%20Potential%20Workforce%20Impacts.pdf) None are going to be lost, just
improved.
Plus if these
is an
"autonomous
freight
network", it
can be found
in the
nation's
freight
railroads!
Alain
BMW’s new curved iDrive display is a ‘major step’ toward autonomous driving
A. Hawkins, March 15, “BMW is pulling the curtain back on its next iteration of iDrive, the software and infotainment platform that has served as the centerpiece of the automaker’s in-car experience for the last 20 years…..” Read more Hmmmm… True, this is a travelTainment system. It has very little to do with “autonomous driving”, except it is so distracting to the driver that a Self-drive system is needed for this system to not lead to “driver distraction product liability” claims. Alain
Should Pedestrians Wear Radar Reflectors So Self-Driving Cars Can See Them?
L. Alter, March 8, “…“Read more Hmmmm… Is this week nothing but Half-baked, Click-Bait and/or C’mon Man??? So bad!! Pedestrians today wear black at night. We can’t even get them to wear light colored clothing so that we have a chance of seeing them and and not hitting them. While I’m driving my ‘55 Chevy (or any car produced before 20xx (xx large)) this Gizmo is useless.
Plus, “all” of the Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) systems on the market today disregard detected objects in the lane ahead whose approach speed is essentially equal to the car’s speed. That may well be thanks to the SAE who seems to be more concerned positives, driver discomfort and rear-end collisions than not being able to pass under stationary objects detected in the lane ahead. Alain
0, 0);">[Annual Princeton](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210128)SmartDrivingCar
Summit [13th Episode at noon on March 25, 2021](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210325)
TO BE followed by
8 more weekly
episodes
through to
April15,
2021. Each
episode
starting Live
on Zoom @ noon
Eastern
(Princeton
Time) and
lasting for
1.5 hours or
until
Discussion
with audience
ends. A.
Kornhauser,
Feb 6, "The
focus of the
Summit this
year will be
moving beyond
the AI and the
Sensors to
addressing the
challenges of Commercialization and the delivery of tangible value to communities.
We've made
enormous
progress with
the
technology.
We're doing
the
investment;
however, this
investment
delivers value
only if is
commercialized:
made available
and is used by
consumers in
large
numbers.
Demos and
one-offs are
"great", but
to deliver
value that is
anywhere near
commensurate
with the
magnitude of
the investment
made to date,
initial
deployments
need to
scale. We
can't just
have
"Morgantown
PRT Systems"
whose initial
deployment has
been nothing
but enormously
successful for
45 years (an
essentially
perfect safety
record, an
excellent
availability
record and
customer
valued
mobility).
Unfortunately,
the system was
never expanded
or duplicated
anywhere. It
didn't scale.
It is a
one-off.
Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale. In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va. which became the reference for many other cites. “… By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague’s equipment had been begun or planned on several continents…” Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology. It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.
In part, the
4th Summit
will focus on
defining the
"Richmond" of
Affordable
Shared-ride
On-demand
Mobility-as-a-Service.
The initial
Operational
Design Domain
(ODD) that
safely
accommodates
Driverless
Mobility
Machines that
people
actually
choose to use
and becomes
the envy of
communities
throughout the
country. " [Read more](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/) Hmmmm... [Draft Program](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/) is
in flux.
Consider all
named
individuals as
"Invited yet
to be
confirmed".
Alain
C’mon Man!(These folks didn’t get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
Calendar of Upcoming
Events:s
4th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
13th Live Episode: Live on Zoom
Help for the drivers and help for the logistics companies
noon ET, Thursday, Georgia, serif;”>
Georgia,
serif;"> [Video Summary of 1st Session: Setting the Stage](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCc9N8o1dys&feature=youtu.be)
and
The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT - 22 - 25 MARCH 2021.
Georgia,
serif;">
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Kockelman’s AV Research Group at U of Texas
###
These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser
###
F. Fishkin,
March 13,
".GM's move to
transform auto
insurance
through OnStar
Insurance:
Is it a win,
win for
all? Is
adaptive
cruise control
prompting some
drivers to
speed? And
what does
Tesla really
mean by "full
self
driving"?
Just some of
the questions
tackled in
the latest
edition of
Smart Driving
Cars with
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin."
[SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-202),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 202](https://youtu.be/Hj3GmnTqfdk) President
& CEO,
RoadDB
###
###
F. Fishkin,
March 3, "When
will we be
able to
purchase cars
that can
largely drive
themselves?
It may not be
long...but
don't expect
to vacate the
driver's
seat. That's
the view of
entrepreneur,
tech pioneer
and RoadDB CEO
Russ
Shields. He
takes an in
depth look at
where we are
and where
we're headed
with
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin." [SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-201),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 201](https://youtu.be/n5oEfvBrWa8)
w/Michael
Sena,
Publisher of The
Dispatcher
###
###
F. Fishkin,
Feb. 26,
"Smarter cars
need smarter
assembly...and
location
matters. The
Dispatcher
publisher
Michael Sena
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin for a
look at that,
politics,
climate and
carmakers...plus
Tesla,
Velodyne,
Foxconn and
more.." [SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-200),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 200](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVHQuwNT4eY&feature=youtu.be)
w/Edwin Olsen,
CEO, May
Mobility
###
###
F. Fishkin,
Feb. 22, "How
May Mobility
is building
confidence in
autonomous
transportation
and creating a
road map for
growth through
the pandemic
and beyond.
CEO and
co-founder
Edwin Olson
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin for
that and
more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 199, Zoom-Cast Episode 199 w/Marc Scribner, Senior Transportation Policy Analyst, Reason Foundation
###
F. Fishkin,
Feb. 19, "How
the Biden
administration
& Congress
can pave the
path for
autonomous
vehicles.
Reason
Foundation Sr.
Transportation
Policy Analyst
Marc Scribner
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin to
focus on
what's next.
Plus jobs and
autonomous
trucking,
Waymo, GM,
Ford and
more." SmartDrivingCars
[Pod-Cast Episode 198](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-198),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 198](https://youtu.be/G7wnT9StV5Q)
w/Dick Mudge,
CEO, Compass
Transportation
&
Technology
###
F. Fishkin,
Feb. 13, Which
autonomous
vehicle
companies will
be the last
standing?
And does
private
ownership of
self driving
cars make
sense?
Compass
Transportation
and Technology
President Dick
Mudge joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin for
that...plus
the latest on
Tesla, GM,
Toyota and
more..." SmartDrivingCars
[Pod-Cast Episode 197](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-197),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 197](https://youtu.be/1DXuNFbaxIc) w/Michel
Parent,
Founding
Member of
SuburVan
###
F. Fishkin,
Feb. 5, "Smart
mobility
innovation in
France. Dr.
Michel Parent
founding
member of
SuburVan is
aiming to
provide fully
autonomous
mobility on
the outskirts
of Paris and
more. He
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin for
that...plus
the latest on
Ford, GM,
Tesla, VW and
more...."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 196, Zoom-Cast Episode 196 w/Steve Polzin, Recently US DoT
###
F. Fishkin,
Jan. 24, "Will
more safe
vehicle
technology
dampen the
push for
driverless
mobility?
Measuring the
progress and
challenges
ahead with Dr.
Steven
Polzin..former
Sr. Advisor,
Office of the
Ass't.
Secretary for
Research and
Technology in
the DOT. He
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin
... plus GM
going zero
emission,
Tesla, Waymo
and more.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 195 Zoom-Cast Episode 195 w/Diana Furchtgott-Roth, G. Washington U.
###
F. Fishkin,
Jan. 24, "What
progress has
been made
towards
smarter, safer
mobility? The
push for a
back-up to
GPS. Why the
jump in
vehicle
fatalities
last year?
Those issues
and more as
former deputy
assistant U.S.
Transportation
Secretary for
research and
technology
Diana
Furchtgott
Roth joins us. Plus...Microsoft, Cruise, Tesla and more on Smart Driving Cars with
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin. SmartDrivingCars
[Pod-Cast Episode 194](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-194) [Zoom-Cast Episode 194](https://youtu.be/hK4Fj6erScY)
w/Anuj
Pradhan, UMass
###
F. Fishkin,
Jan. 15,
""When it
comes to
vehicle safety technology...should manufacturers be sharing instead of competing?
Should there
be
standardization?
Anuj Pradhan,
co-director of
the Human
Performance
Lab at UMASS
Amherst joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin for
that...plus
the latest
from GM,
Tesla,
Mobileye, Nio
and more." SmartDrivingCars
[Pod-Cast Episode 193](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-193) [Zoom-Cast Episode 193](https://youtu.be/OETxB_wzkDw)
w/Bobby
Hambrick,
AutonomousStuff
###
F. Fishkin,
Jan. 8, "Bobby
Hambrick
started
AutuonomouStuff
in a barn in
Morton,
Illinois....and
has pioneered
much of the
technology
moving the
autonomous
industry
forward, now
as part of
Hexagon. Bobby
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin to
look back and
look ahead.
Plus...Apple,
Hyundai,
Waymo, Tesla
and more! "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 192 Zoom-Cast Episode 192 w/Danny Shapiro, nVIDIA
###
F. Fishkin,
Dec. 30,
"NVIDIA
continues on a
roll powering
the Zoox robo
taxi unveiled
this month by
Amazon.
NVIDIA senior
director of
automotive
Danny Shapiro
outlines the
progress and
looks ahead to
2021 in the
latest Smart
Driving Cars
with
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 191 Zoom-Cast Episode 191 w/ Louis Aaron’23 and Joel Johnson
F. Fishkin, Dec. 20, “College student Joel Johnson has been keeping a log of dozens of trips in Waymo’s self driving service in Chandler, Arizona, and posting videos on YouTube. Louis Aaron’23, another student, has been working with Elon Musk’s Boring Company in Las Vegas. The two share their experiences with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in the latest Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 190 Zoom-Cast Episode 190 w/Chris Urmson, Aurora
###
F. Fishkin,
Dec. 15, "With
Aurora taking
over Uber's
self driving
efforts, what
is on the
horizon for
the start up
whose leaders
have roots at
Waymo, Tesla
and Uber?
Co-founder and
CEO Chris
Urmson joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin in
this special
edition of
Smart Driving
Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 187 Zoom-Cast Episode 187 w/Michael Sena, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Nov 25, “What you should know about electric cars, climate change and more. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye opening edition of Smart Driving Cars..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 186 Zoom-Cast Episode 186 w/Kelly Funkhouser, Consumer Report
F. Fishkin, Nov 24, “When it comes to active driver assistance systems, what works and what needs improvement? Some answers from Kelly Funkhouser… program manager for vehicle interface, head of connected and automated vehicles at Consumer Reports. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 186 of Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 185 Zoom-Cast Episode 185 w/Dan Smith, Waymo F. Fishkin, Nov 20, “Only Waymo has been transporting customers in driverless vehicles without a safety monitor on board. What goes into that kind of decision? Waymo Assistant General Counsel Dan Smith joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in this special edition of Smart Driving Cars.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 184 Zoom-Cast Episode 184 w/Marjory Blumenthal, Rand F. Fishkin, Nov 20, “So when are driverless vehicles safe enough to be deployed? Senior Rand Corporation policy researcher Marjory Blumenthal joins Princeton University’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to examine her latest report and more.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 183 Zoom-Cast Episode 183 w/Kirsten Korosec F. Fishkin, Nov 13, “Rivian’s hands free driver assistance will be standard equipment…while Ford unveils the E-Transit. TechCrunch Senior Transportation reporter and editor Kirsten Korosec joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Nuro, Tesla, Uber, Lyft, Cruise and more. Plus the coming changes for mobility under a new administration!”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 182 Zoom-Cast Episode 182 F. Fishkin, Nov 6, “What will a new administration mean for autonomous mobility? And what about the passage of Proposition 22 in California after Uber’s big campaign? That plus luxury EVs coming from Bentley….and cheap EVs from China. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 181 Zoom-Cast Episode 181 w/Sheldon Sandler & Glenn Mercer F. Fishkin, Oct. 30, “Waymo releases self driving data…while traditional car dealers enjoy surprisingly strong profits during the pandemic. Why? What about the coming autonomous mobility? Bell Air Partners’ Sheldon Sandler and researcher-consultant Glenn Mercer explain in Episode 181 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 180 Zoom-Cast Episode 180 w/John Rich, Ford/Argo, part 2 F. Fishkin, Oct. 15, “Ford and Argo AI have unveiled their next generation self-driving test vehicle. Once again, Ford’s Director of Autonomous Vehicle and Technology Development John Rich joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to unveil the technology and the company’s self driving business plans.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 179 Zoom-Cast Episode 179 w/John Rich, Ford/Argo F. Fishkin, Oct. 15, “Which autonomous vehicle platforms will survive? The director of Ford’s Autonomous Vehicle and Technology Development says there may only be two…and Ford /Argo AI will be one of them. John Rich joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 178 Zoom-Cast Episode 178 w/Andrew Hawkins, Verge F. Fishkin, Oct. 9, “Here we go! Waymo going fully driverless in Phoenix suburb service. The Verge senior transportation reporter Andrew Hawkins joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla… Amazon… Rivian and more. Subscribe!
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 177 Zoom-Cast Episode 177
F. Fishkin,
Oct. 2, "New
grades for
assisted
driving
systems from
Euro NCAP.
But Princeton
Professor
Alain
Kornhauser
says the devil
is in the
details in
this edition
with co-host
Fred Fishkin.
And there's
Amazon's
success
against Covid
plusTesla,
Uber, GM,
Nikola and
more. SmartDrivingCars [Pod-Cast Episode 176](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-176) [Zoom-Cast Episode 176](https://youtu.be/lHjSTXH-GGchttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHvG6Aqt6fk&feature=youtu.be)
w/Marc
Scribner
F. Fishkin, Sept. 25, “A new government entity to oversee autonomous vehicles? Marc Scribner, Sr. Transportation Policy Analyst at the Reason Foundation on regulation and more with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus…Tesla, Nikola, GM and the California move to ban new gasoline vehicles.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 175 Zoom-Cast Episode 175 w/Michael Sena F. Fishkin, Sept. 18, “Automobility and the future of car dealers… “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena offers a different take on how car dealers may battle automakers pushing for direct to consumer subscriptions. That and more in this edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 174 Zoom-Cast Episode 174 w/Kelly Funkhouser, Consumer Reports
F. Fishkin, Sept. 4, “Moving forward with autonomous vehicle testing, the head of safety at Uber’s Advanced Technology Group is pledging safety data transparency. Nat Beuse joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for that and more on the latest mobility headlines.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 173 Zoom-Cast Episode 173 w/Nathanial Beuse F. Fishkin, Sept. 4, “Moving forward with autonomous vehicle testing, the head of safety at Uber’s Advanced Technology Group is pledging safety data transparency. Nat Beuse joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for that and more on the latest mobility headlines.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 172Zoom-Cast Episode 172 Special Edition w/Danny Shapiro
F. Fishkin ,Sept. 2, “Mercedes unveils the latest S Class with more computing power than 60 average cars…with NVIDIA playing a big role. NVIDIA’s Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 171Zoom-Cast Episode 171 w/Henry Greenidge
SmartDrivingCars PodCast 170 ZoomCast Episode170 w/Michael Sena SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 169 ZoomCast Episode 169 w/Anthony Townsend SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 168 ZoomCast Episode 168 w/Olaf Sakkers SmartDrivingCars PodCast 167 ZoomCast Episode167 w/Robin Chase, Carlos Pardo & Daniel Sperling SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 166ZoomCast Episode 166 w/Jay Rodgers’95, CEO Local Motors
Zoom-inar
Episode 005
AmaZooks
F. Fishkin, July 20, “Is Driverless home delivery the fastest route to Affordable Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged? … “
SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 165,ZoomCast Episode165 w/Michael Sena
F. Fishkin 16, “Is the option to buy a car at a dealership going to vanish? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena has a provocative perspective in this edition with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..an update on the Amazon Zoox deal, autonomous vehicles and how they can help battle discrimination in transportation, TuSimple, Mobileye, Uber, Tesla and more.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast 164 Episode 164, Zoom-Cast Episode 163 w/Robbie Diamond
F. Fishkin, July 9, “Fostering economic opportunity through autonomous technology is the focus of an upcoming report from Security America’s Future Energy. Founder and CEO Robbie Diamond shares details and more in this edition with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus ..are armed police officers really needed for traffic enforcement? And the latest from Tesla, Waymo and more. …” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 163, Zoom-Cast Episode 163 w/Henry Greenidge F. Fishkin, July 2, “Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. .”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 162, Zoom-Cast Episode 162 w/Cliff Winston
F. Fishkin, June 25, “From the Brookings Institution, Cliff Winston, co-author of Autonomous Vehicles…The Road to Economic Growth? joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..why are fatal crash rates rising in the midst of a pandemic…plus NVIDIA, Didi, Tesla and more.”
Episode 004 [Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHlPaNmjeag&feature=youtu.be)
F. Fishkin,
June 23, "But
the debate is
not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
-
Zoom-inar (Video replay) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
-
PodCast (Audio Only) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
Listen/Watch more Hmmm… We only scratched the surface. Alain SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 161,Zoom-Cast Episode 161 w/Alberto Stochino F. Fishkin, June 17, “Is less data sometimes more when it comes to driverless vehicle technology? Perceptive Founder and CEO Alberto Stochino joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the DOT’s new plan for sharing autonomous safety information, the latest from Tesla, EVs from China and more.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 160, Zoom-Cast Episode 160 w/Jessica Cicchino F. Fishkin, June 12, “Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Research VP Jessica Cicchino co-authored a new study saying self driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to discuss the study. Plus the latest on Tesla, Ford & VW, Covid-19 and more. ”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 159, Zoom-Cast Episode 159 w/Kara Kockelman F. Fishkin, June 4, “Prof. Kara Kockelman’s focus on smart transportation to save lives, money and the environment has made her a sought after global expert. The U. of Texas Transportation Engineering Professor joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on the impact of Covid-19 and much more. Plus Tesla, Uber, Argo AI and the top smart driving headlines. For more on Dr. Kockelman’s work….please visit… http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman.”
DrivingTheDebate
Episode 003 [Everyone's for Connectivity; but...](https://youtu.be/DMNLH_fkcI4) F. Fishkin,
June 2, "But
the debate is
not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
Listen/Watch more Hmmm… We only scratched the surface. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 158, Zoom-Cast Episode 158 w/Chunka Mui
F. Fishkin, May 28, “In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, what are the smartest ways to re-build and plan for the future? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Amazon, Zoox, Intel Mobileye, Tesla, Uber and more.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 157, Zoom-Cast Episode 157 w/Grayson Brulte
F. Fishkin, May 21, “Global auto makers must completely re-think their autonomous mobility strategy as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. So says innovation strategist Grayson Brulte of Brulte & Company….who joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus…Waymo, Tesla, Uber and more.”
DrivingTheDebate Episode 002 The Future of Public Roadway Transit F. Fishkin, May 14, ”Will the Bus be Thrown Under the Bus?…
-
Zoom-inar Video (Video replay)Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
-
PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 156, Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 156 w/Danny Shapiro2 F. Fishkin, May 14, “With new hardware and software capabilities NVIDIA is expanding into new areas of driver assistance technology. Sr. Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus the latest on Waymo, Voyage, Ford and more. listen and subscribe!”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 155,Zoom-Cast Episode 155 w/Alex Roy2 F. Fishkin, April 29, “The continuing impact of Covid-19 on autonomous vehicle progress. But it may not be all bad news. Alex Roy…host of the No Parking Podcast and Director of Special Operations at Argo AI joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Intel, Lyft, Uber and more. Listen and subscribe!
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 154, Zoom-Cast Episode 154 w/Dan Sperling F. Fishkin, April 29, “Can ride sharing rebound after the pandemic? Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo, Ford and more.”
DrivingTheDebate Episode 001 The Driverless “New Normal” Debate F. Fishkin, April 27,
-
SmartDrivingCar PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Driverless New Normal Debate
-
Zoom Audience Questions (Only a few were addressed in Zoom-inar)
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 153, Zoom-Cast Episode 153 w/Dick Mudge2
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 152,Zoom-Cast Episode 152 w/Brad Templeton
SmartDrivingCars Podcast Episode 148 w/Richard Bishop
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 148 w/Richard Bishop
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O’Toole
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena’69
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader’55
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy
Recent Highlights of:
Saturday, March 13, 2021
[General Motors Aims to Transform Auto Insurance Industry with OnStar Insurance](https://www.dropbox.com/s/96y8p2x2hpet1zr/GM_OnStar%20Auto%20Insurance%20Launch%20Media%20Advisory.pdf?dl=0)
Press Release,
March 11, "GM
announced it
will take its
relentless
focus on
safety and
delivering a
world-class
customer
experience one
step further
with [OnStar Insurance](https://www.onstarinsurance.com/).
... OnStar
Insurance
Services
intends to
leverage its
unique
understanding
of the
vehicles GM
produces to
offer..."
[Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/96y8p2x2hpet1zr/GM_OnStar%20Auto%20Insurance%20Launch%20Media%20Advisory.pdf?dl=0) Hmmmm.... See Kornhauser's [Automated Driving of Road Vehicles 101: Why, What, Where, When](https://www.dropbox.com/s/e9gnpjre1oqsbyd/AutomatedVehicleTechnologiesWhyWhatWhenWhere.pdf?dl=0). Also:
Given that:
1. “>90%” crashes involve driver misbehavior;
2. OEMs are including more SmartDriving technology in cars. That technology comes in two part: a. SafelyDriven technology which “works” essentially everywhere, all the time to avert crashes by mitigating driver misbehavior, see #1 above..
i. Examples: anti-lock brakes, electronic stability control, automated emergency braking, blind spot warning, …) ii. Liability/Insurance implications: the better these work the lower the expected liability, the lower the expected LOSS and the happier the company that insures their owners. 😁! iii. OnStar/GM Insurance Advantage: They know earlier and better how well these systems can be expected to work. They designed and tested the systems before they put them in the showroom and have “the data” to compute better expected liabilities by driver characteristics and thus be better able to craft and price an insurance product for each purchaser of a GM vehicle. Simply, they will be better able to “know when to hold ‘em .. know when to fold ‘em … they can better know what’s comin’”.
b. SelfDriving technology which works only some of the time and some of the places (Don’t worry, as soon as they work all of the time and all of the places it will be a very big deal and you’ll know it, but don’t hold your breath.)
Nor do any of them perform better than an average driver that is not misbehaving. Again, don’t hold your breath. Consequently these systems are Comfort & Convenience features that, at best, should not degrade safety. To not degrade safety, these systems must work properly when engaged by the driver and the driver must not engage them when and where these systems aren’t going to work properly. (… Drivers must not misbehave in the use of these systems (… Use these systems outside their certified Operational Design Domain, ODD)).
i. Examples: Cruise Conroe (Feet-off , but required the driver to steer (Hands-on), be aware and alert (Eyes-on) and be seated in the driver’s seat (Butt-in), and available only in a certain speed range, lane-grade range, doesn’t respond to traffic signals, doesn’t work if there is a stationary object in the lane ahead, …); Automated lane keeping ({Feet-on, Hands-off, Eyes-on, Butt-in}, but only if proper lane markings exist); Automated parking ({Feet-off, Hands-off, Eyes-on, Butt-out} all starting from speed zero in an area that is recognized by the systems as a parking opportunity); StupidSummon ({Feet-off, Hands-off, Eyes-on, Butt-out}, but only available within the driver’s own property), “Level3” ({Feet-off, Hands-off, Eyes-off, Butt-in}, but only on some certified in real time road segments.)
ii. Liability/Insurance implications: To date these systems have been sold on a “buyer beware” basis in that all liability implications of their use fell on the shoulders of the driver and their insurer. Consequently, misuse of these systems was the driver’s/insurer’s “problem”. Unfortunately, misuse of these systems and the resulting degradation of safety can be expected to cause regulators to insist that future versions of these SelfDriving technologies must include monitoring systems that preclude them from being available, let alone be used, outside of their real-time Operational Design Domain(ODD) for which their functionality has been “certified by the OEM” to not degrade safety. This “floor” for safety can be expected to be that experienced by an average non-misbehaving driver in similar driving situations.
This implies that if a crash happens during the use of one of these systems, it is 1. one of these “rare” events in which the driver was not misbehaving. The insurer is dragged in and may well be liable (This is what insurance is supposed to be all about), or 2. the system failed in its automated driving function. The OEM is dragged in and may well be liable from a product liability standpoint or 3. the driver was mis-behaving in the use of the system. This means that the system failed in precluding the system’s use. The OEM is dragged in and may well be liable from a product liability standpoint.
3. Implications on Insurer: Let: $Aij be the distribution of expected expenses of “being dragged in and possibly having to pay damages” if driver i of GM car with features j gets involved in a “Rare events” crash, or crashes, over the duration of the insurance policy.
(This expense
distribution
is largely a
function of
the kinds of
driving driver
i is going to
do. Its
estimation is
independent of
any
proprietary
product
information
held by GM.
OnStarInsurance
is not
advantaged.)
$Bij be the distribution of expected expenses of “being dragged in” if driver i of GM car with features j gets involved in a crash, or crashes, resulting from the failure of features j to avoid the crash when driver i was misbehaving.
(This expense
distribution
would arise
from
situations in
which GM's
SafelyDriven
technology
didn't perform
perfectly.
Given all of
the testing
that GM
conducts on
each of its
technologies
prior to their
placement for
sale in
showroom,
having access
to those
testing data
allows
OnStarInsurance
to more
accurately
estimate this
distribution.
OnStarInsurance is substantially advantaged.)
$Cij be the distribution of expected expenses of “being dragged in” if driver i of GM car with features j gets involved in a crash when the System was engaged and the incident occurred outside the System’s certified ODD.
(This expense
distribution
would arise
from
situations in
which GM's
automated
Comfort&Convenience
features
either didn't
perform as
well as a
well-behaving
driver inside
the feature's
certified ODD,
or driver i
was able to
mis-use the
system by
engaging it
outside its
ODD. Again,
given all of
the testing
that GM
conducts on
each of its
technologies
prior to their
placement for
sale in
showrooms,
having access
to those
testing data
also allows
one to more
accurately
estimate this
distribution.
OnStarInsurance is substantially advantaged.)
In pricing insurance, the insurer must estimate the distribution of expected expenses associated with the crashes driver i can be expected to have in car with features j over the life of the policy and price that insurance product accordingly.
For an outside insurer, call them WB: the expenses expected to be incurred over the life of the policy to insure Driver i in the purchase of a GM car with features j = $WBij = {$Aij}wb + {$Bij}wb + {$Cij}wb
For GM: the expenses expected to be incurred over the life of the policy to insure Driver i in the purchase of a GM car with features j = $GMij = {$Bij}gm + {$Cij}gm (They get dragged in to all of the “non-rare” crashes because of product liability responsibility
For OnStar Insurance: the expenses expected to be incurred over the life of the policy to insure Driver i in the purchase of a GM car with features j = $OSij = {$Aij}os (Since GM is already dragged in, no need for OnStarInsurance to also be drawn in to defend themselves.).
Consequently, OnStar has a fundamental pricing advantage because $OSij « $WBij. Plus OnStar/GM can better estimate the $Bij and $Cij distributions. Thus OnStar “knows when to hold ‘em..” in the insurance pricing game.
Finally, it is very much in GM’s interest to get its SafelyDriven technologies as perfect as possible so as to minimize {$Bij}gm on every vehicle GM sells and to forbid, as best as possible, the mis-use/availability of it SelfDriving Comfort&Convenience features outside their ODD to minimize {$Cij}gm on every vehicle GM sells.
The above is an extraordinarily strong financial incentive for GM to make its SafelyDriven and Comfort&Convenience automated driving technologies as good as possible and, if they are going to do that, GM might as well also be in the insurance business. Alain
[Automated Driving Technologies: Driving Change in Insurance](https://viodi.com/2021/03/05/automated-driving-technologies-driving-change-in-insurance/)
K. Pyle, March
5, "It is in
the insurance
industry's
best interest
to use
automated
driving
technology to
make things
safer through
crash
avoidance, not
just crash
mitigation.
Unlike crash
mitigation,
crash
avoidance
saves the
insurance
company money.
This was Alain
Kornhauserâ's
premise for
the Smart
Driving Car
Summit,
Incentivizing
Through
Insurance. The trillion-dollar question is whether the incentives to automate will
overcome the
countervailing
forces of
existing
business
practices in
other parts of
the mobility
industry?...."
[Read more](https://viodi.com/2021/03/05/automated-driving-technologies-driving-change-in-insurance/) Hmmmm.... We had another
excellent
Session.
Thank you for
the summary,
Ken. Alain
[March 2021 Issue](https://www.dropbox.com/s/vcwicdu3rz3h73z/The%20Dispatcher_March%202021.pdf?dl=0) M.
Sena, Feb 23,
" ... There is
no way to test
a car
virtually...
OEMs are still learning that that today’s cars are not your father’s Oldsmobile.
Vehicle
connectivity
is not
something that
is tacked onto
a car, like a battery-operated portable TOMTOM or GARMIN (or [CoPilot](https://copilottruck.com/)...Michael,
How could you
forget?...!)...navigation
system....
Driving Neat:
Can U.S. Take
Its Cars
Without
ICE?..." [Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/vcwicdu3rz3h73z/The%20Dispatcher_March%202021.pdf?dl=0) Hmmmm... Plus much much more.
Enjoy!!! Alain [COMMENTARY: How the Biden Administration and Congress Can Pave the Path for Automated Vehicles](https://reason.org/policy-brief/challenges-and-opportunities-for-federal-automated-vehicle-policy/) M.
Scribner, Feb.
11, "Automated
vehicle
technology is
coming; it's
advancing very
quickly," said
now-confirmed
Secretary of
Transportation
Pete Buttigieg
during his
confirmation
hearing. “It
is something
that holds the
potential to
be
transformative
and I think in
many ways
policy has not
kept up.â€
Secretary
Buttigieg is
absolutely
correct. The
U.S.
Department of Transportation, specifically the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration
division, has
a number of
tools at its
disposal that
can be used to
modernize the
federal
regulatory
environment to
help speed the
deployment of
automated
vehicle
technologies
that can
greatly
enhance
safety,
mobility, and
access for all
Americans.
There is also
an important
role for
Congress,
especially at
this early
stage of
automated
vehicle
development.
To support
reform efforts
within the
executive and
legislative
branches, my
new Reason
Foundation
policy brief,
[Challenges and Opportunities for Federal Automated Vehicle Policy](https://www.dropbox.com/s/7oiex3xvdh98f5y/challenges-opportunities-federal-automated-vehicle-policy.pdf?dl=0),
lays out
several steps
policymakers
can take to
adapt the
automotive
regulatory
apparatus to
automated
driving system
technologies.
The brief is
broken into
three main
sections:
defining
automated
vehicles, a
survey of
current
federal
automated
vehicle policy
development
activities,
and
recommendations
for federal
policymakers.
The reform
recommendations
for
legislators
and regulators
are
categorized
under four
themes: ..." [Read more](https://reason.org/policy-brief/challenges-and-opportunities-for-federal-automated-vehicle-policy/) Hmmmm... Read especially: "[CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FEDERAL AUTOMATED VEHICLE POLICY](https://www.dropbox.com/s/7oiex3xvdh98f5y/challenges-opportunities-federal-automated-vehicle-policy.pdf?dl=0)". Included is an extensive
discussion on
the SAE Levels
where Marc
states: "...most legacy automakers and new
automated
driving
developers are
planning to
avoid SAE
Level 3
altogether.."
and "Given
the wide
diversity of
road network
operating
conditions,
achieving SAE
Level 5 poses
significant
challenges...."
That leaves
just two very
different
classes of AVs
...
Safely-driven
AVs,
encompasing
SAE Levels 1
& 2, that
assist and
support human
drivers while
requiring that
a human driver
ensures that
the vehicle
will be driven
safely... and
Driverless
AVs, SAE Level
4, where the
responsibility
that the
vehicle will
be driven
safely is
entirely borne
by the driving
technology.
Those are the
only two
kinds. Policy
should focus
on only those
two and get
those right.
They are they
only real
opportunities
for this
technology ...
one to help
human drivers
drive more
safely and the
other is to
drive safely
without any
help or
involvement by
anyone riding
long with the
vehicle.
Thus, the
first order of
business for
Federal Policy
is to simplify
the process by
concentrating
on those two
very diffent
kinds of AVs
and get those
right. Alain
[Biden inherits big traffic safety mess](https://edition.pagesuite.com/popovers/dynamic_article_popover.aspx?guid=59e39325-8a38-42b3-af1d-6b62bdd0d6a0&v=sdk)
R. Mitchell,
Feb. 4, "...
" [Read more](https://edition.pagesuite.com/popovers/dynamic_article_popover.aspx?guid=59e39325-8a38-42b3-af1d-6b62bdd0d6a0&v=sdk) Hmmmm... If the driver/owner is
expected to be
prepared to
intervene to
maintain
safety, then
it is NOT full
anything,
period.
Moreover, if
the
owner/driver
is NOT
prepared, nor
permitted to
intervene to
maintain
safety, then
the fleet
operator is
required to
accept the
responsibility
and "make
whole" any and
all
liabilities
arising from
any and all
"at fault"
crashes.
Until Elon is
willing to
step up and
take on that
responsibility/liability
or sell his
cars
exclusively to
operating
entities that
assume that
responsibility
his Teslas are
NOT full
anything, period! Alain
Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System G. Laniewki, Jan 26. “:…“ Read more Hmmmm… Very nice Nation-wide investigation by my students this past Fall. Alain
G.M. Will Sell Only Zero-Emission Vehicles by 2035
N. Boudette,
Jan. 28, "The
days of the
internal
combustion
engine are
numbered.
General Motors
said Thursday
that it would
phase out
petroleum-powered
cars and
trucks and
sell only
vehicles that
have zero
tailpipe
emissions by
2035, a
seismic shift
by one of the
world's
largest
automakers
that makes
billions of
dollars today
from
gas-guzzling
pickup trucks
and sport
utility
vehicles.
.." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission-vehicles.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20210128&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline®i_id=89228009&segment_id=50516&user_id=bb3a3afb7a60246a936251b2f79cc1db)Hmmmm...
Great!
(maybe???):
Good News:
Zero emission
vehicles; Bad
News: From
where cometh
the marginal
electricity
that enables
that
Zero-Emission
Vehicle to
move and what
carries that
electricity to
the point on
the road where
that
electricity is
used to power
that Zero-Emission
Vehicle?
Until we have
a "Zero
Emission
Battery" and
all
electricity is
created using
Zero Emission,
GM cannot
produce, nor
sell, Zero
Emission
Vehicles that
actually move
(other than [downhill a la Nikola](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/nikola-admits-prototype-was-rolling-downhill-in-promotional-video/)).
So please tout
the whole
story!! (Will
these EVs be
less polluting
than an ICE
that GM could
build and sell
"by 2035"? is
the real
question. The
answer depends
on where we
will be with
electricity
production and
distribution,
the efficiency
and makeup of
batteries and
the
improvement of
ICEs. (I
didn't mean to
imply that it
was a simple
question, but
the NY Times
should be more
than
click-bait.).
Alain
January 29,
2021
blue;
text-decoration:
none;">
[U Mich's Robert Hampshire joins Biden administration to work in transportation research and technology](https://news.umich.edu/u-ms-robert-hampshire-joins-biden-administration-to-work-in-transportation-research-and-technology/)
J. Karoub,
Jan. 21,
"Robert
Hampshire,
associate
professor at
the University
of Michiga's
Gerald R. Ford
School of
Public Policy
whose research
and policy
engagement
focuses on
understanding
the societal,
climate and
equity
implications
of autonomous
and connected
vehicles and
other
innovative
mobility
services, has
joined the
Biden
administration
to work in the
U.S.
Transportation
.. [Read more](https://news.umich.edu/u-ms-robert-hampshire-joins-biden-administration-to-work-in-transportation-research-and-technology/) Hmmmm... What a fantastic
appointment. Congratulations Robert! Alain
[AUTOMATED VEHICLES: Comprehensive Plan](https://www.dropbox.com/s/35vtszzmvv90ohx/USDOT_AVCP.pdf?dl=0) E.
Chao, Jan.
2021, "The
Automated
Vehicles
Comprehensive
Plan
(Comprehensive
Plan)
describes how
the United
States
Department of
Transportation
(U.S. DOT) is
supporting the
safe
integration of
Automated
Driving
Systems (ADS)2
into the
surface
transportation
system. It
explains
Departmental
goals related
to ADS,
identifies
actions being
taken to meet
those goals,
and provides
real-world
examples of
how these
Departmental
actions relate
to emerging
ADS
applications...
" [Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/35vtszzmvv90ohx/USDOT_AVCP.pdf?dl=0) Hmmmm... I guess this is a good
plan. Of
course, Safety
is #1, as it
should be.
DoT's #1
public
responsibility
is Safety.
Whether Cyber
Security and
Privacy are #
2 and 3 and
ahead of
Enhanced
Mobility and
Accessibility
is certainly
debatable.
And if the Enhanced
Mobility and
Accessibility
of the
"mobility
disadvantaged
that have been
left behind by
our current
favored
transport
system" were
to be a
category, then
that one
should be
right behind
Safety at #2
if not ahead
of Safety and
a solid #1.
The rest. as
they should,
are
appropriately
details. What
is most
disconcerting
about the
report are the
images. To me,
those images
depict the
current
"haves", not
"have-nots"
and thus don't
really address
the mobility
needs and
desires of
those whose
quality-of-life
could be most
enhanced by
automation
technology.
These images
seem to focus
the Plan on
giving those
that already
have pretty
good ways to
get around,
yet another
way to get
around, where,
when you
finally get
right down to
it, may at
best be only
slightly
better than
what they
already have.
This
Comprehensive
Plan should
first be
focused on
providing
high-quality
affordable
mobility to
those whose
quality-of-life
could be most
improved by
such new
technologies
and
subsequently
serve those
that already
enjoy and can
afford other
high-quality
forms of
mobility.
Also, Elaine, thank you for a really good 4 years. You (and USDoT) were really the star of what was otherwise a most embarrassing Presidency. Also, thanks to Diana Furchtgott-Roth and many others in US DoT. Alain
January 08,
2021
Automatic braking is now on most new cars. But not GM or Fiat Chrysler vehicles C. Isidore, Dec 17, “Automatic braking, once a feature available exclusively to high-end cars, is becoming common across the industry, according to analysis from Consumer Reports and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.
.. " [Read more](https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/17/business/automatic-braking/) Hmmmm... Set up for the [3rd session of the SDC Summit](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210114).
Alain
December 31,
2020 [Sustainable and Attainable: Zoox Unveils Autonomous Robotaxi Powered by NVIDIA](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2020/12/17/zoox-autonomous-robotaxi-powered-by-nvidia/) D. Shapiro,
Dec. 17, "When
it comes to
future
mobility, you
may not have
to pave as
many paradises
for personal
car parking
lots.
This week,
autonomous
mobility
company Zoox
unveiled its
much-anticipated
purpose-built
robotaxi.
Designed for
everyday urban
mobility, the
vehicle is
powered by
NVIDIA and is
one of the
first level 5
robotaxis
featuring
bi-directional
capabilities,
providing a
concrete view
into the next
generation of
intelligent
transportation...."
[Read more](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2020/12/17/zoox-autonomous-robotaxi-powered-by-nvidia/) Hmmmm... Watch Zoom-Cast 192.
Alain
December 11,
2020
[Uber, After Years of Trying, Is Handing Off Its Self-Driving Car Project](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/technology/uber-self-driving-car-project.html)
C. Metz & K. Conger, Dec 7, “Uber, which spent hundreds of millions of dollars on a self-driving car project that executives once believed was a key to becoming profitable, is handing the autonomous vehicle effort over to a Silicon Valley start-up, the companies said on Mondayh….” Read more Hmmmm… Actually a good article. Alain
December 04,
2020
Nikola Teaches GM a Lesson S. Wilmot, Nov 30, “Nikola Corp. NKLA 0.76% isn’t turning out to be the next Tesla that investors and were hoping for. …“ Read more Hmmmm… Lessons for many in this endeavor. See alsoAndrew Hawkin’s take as well as David Morris’. Alain
November 26,
The Vehicle Fuel Debate Has Been Hijacked
M. Sena, Nov. 19, “The lead article this month was inspired by a diagram I received showing how much of the energy that we generate to heat our homes, light up our rooms, make the concrete and steel to build our infrastructure and power our transportation is wasted. It’s over two-thirds. Wasted! Half of it is from producing electricity.
..." [Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/lw27g9qlolrjkpb/The%20Dispatcher_December%202020.pdf?dl=0)Hmmmm... What can I say?? Another great
edition of the
Dispatcher. Be
sure to read
all the way
through
including "[Musings of a Dispatcher: Cars are from Mars](https://www.dropbox.com/s/lw27g9qlolrjkpb/The%20Dispatcher_December%202020.pdf?dl=0)". Enjoy and listen/watch the
following [Pod](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-187)/[Zoom](https://youtu.be/eyGCKObQ4e0)-casts. Alain
Waymo’s Safety Methodologies and Safety Readiness Determinations N, Webb, Oct. 30, “As the world’s most experienced developer of automated driving systems, Waymo has extensive experience in developing and applying state-of-the-art safety methodologies. Waymo’s methodologies help implement Waymo’s forward-looking safety philosophy: Waymo will reduce traffic injuries and fatalities by driving safely and responsibly, and will carefully manage risk as we scale our operations. Waymo’s safety methodologies, which draw on well established engineering processes and address new safety challenges specific to Automated Vehicle technology, provide a firm foundation for safe deployment of our Level 4 ADS, which we also refer to as the Waymo Driver. Waymo’s determination of its readiness to deploy its AVs safely in different settings rests on that firm foundation and on a thorough analysis of risks specific to a particular Operational Design Domain )….” Read more Hmmmm… The process. Must read! Alain
Waymo Public Road Safety Performance Data M. Schwall, Oct. 30, “Waymo’s mission to reduce traffic injuries and fatalities and improve mobility for all has led us to expand deployment of automated vehicles (AVs) on public roads without a human driver behind the wheel. As part of this process, Waymo is committed to providing the public with informative and relevant data regarding the demonstrated safety of Waymo’s automated driving system (ADS), which we call the Waymo Driver….” Read more Hmmmm… The substance. Must read! …
I had the priveledge of reviewing Waymo’s most recent Safety Reports 1 , 2 (above)
In the past, safety reports by the AV community have largely been a response to NHTSA’¢s Voluntary Safety Self-Assessments and have, in my opinion, been largely public relations documents. While generally descriptive about the testing processes they contain very little, if any, substantive information about their safety related experience to-date focused exclusively on driverless operation.
Safe driverless operation is absolutely necessary for AVs to evolve from extremely expensive chauffeured rides to affordable mobility available to essentially anyone throughout an Operational Design Domain (ODD). Affordability requires that the mobility be delivered without a driver or attendant on-board the vehicle. Only passengers.
The decision to remove the driver/attendant rests in part on the shoulders of public safety regulators who need to allow such operation, but more importantly, on the shoulders of the real decision makers at the AV company. In the end, it is those AV company decision makers who will be held fully responsible for any lapse in the safety of the driverless operation. These decision makers are inside the AV companies and are, of course, privy to all the details and substance about their own safety related driverless operation, which, in the past, has not been shared in their Voluntary Safety Self-assessments.
My impression is that these just released Waymo Safety Reports contain the substantive information that clearly depicts Waymo’s safety-related driverless operational experience. To me, they read like internal documents meant to guide and inform internal decision makers to objectively decide if a sufficiently safe operational experience has been achieved in order to vote to fully accept the safety responsibility of driverless operation in their Operational Design Domain.
Given the information that is contained in these documents, it does not surprise me that Waymo decision makers have decided to proceed with driverless operation in the Phoenix Operational Design Domain. Had I had the responsibility of being one of the decision makers reviewing these documents, I would have also voted yes.
Alain
rgb(51, 51,
October 09,
2020
Waymo starts to open driverless ride-hailing service to the public
K. Korosec, Oct. 8, “Waymo, the Google self-driving-project-turned-Alphabet unit, is beginning to open up its driverless ride-hailing service to the public.
..." [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/08/waymo-starts-to-open-driverless-ride-hailing-service-to-the-public/) Hmmmm... "...fully Driverless...".
That means
that Krafcik,
the Waymo
"Board",
Alphabet's
Board and all
the lawyers
have signed
off and
said... We are
safe enough to
basically bet
the ranch that
the expected
value of the
mobility that
we'll be
putting out on
the streets
of our Operational Design Domain, which is under our control,
is worth
whatever
expected risk
still exists
that some bad
things may
happen. That
is an enormous
hurdle that
has been
achieved by an
entity that
has an
enormous
ranch. CONGRATULATIONS!!!
It hasn't come
easy, nor has
it come
without intese
diligence and
effort. CONGRATULATIONS!!! Alain
rgb(51, 51,
October 09,
2020
ASSISTED DRIVING GRADINGS Staff, Oct. 2020 “On this page you will find the gradings of cars tested by Euro NCAP on automated driving technologies.
September 25,
2020
rgb(51, 51,
September 11,
2020 [Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its Name](https://www.consumerreports.org/autonomous-driving/tesla-full-self-driving-capability-review-falls-short-of-its-name/) M.
Monticello.
Sept. 8, The
features might
be cutting
edge, even
cool, but we
think buyers
should be wary
of shelling
out $8,000 for
what electric
car company
Tesla calls
its Full
Self-Driving
Capability
option. Tesla
claims every
new vehicle it
builds
includes all
the hardware
necessary to
be fully
autonomous,
and the
company says
that through
future
over-the-air
software
updates, its
cars should
eventually be
capable of
driving
themselves. .... Anytime anyone uses words
such as "Full"
the one thing
that you know
that they are
"Full" of is
.... "Full"
is about a
perception,
not a fact.
Even the
definition of
"autonomous"
has caveats
(or should I
say Full of
caveats?).
What I
interpret Elon
to be selling
is: sufficient
hardware
(sensors,
memory,
compute power
and
communications
bandwidth)
that, with
more elegant
software, may
be able to do
a way better
job in safely
driving a
car. What he
has never said
is that this
hardware plus
future
software is
going to be
good enough
for him to be
held
responsible if
something bad
happens when
the car is
being driven
by that
hardware and
software
combination.
That said,
lets move
on...
But for now,
Full
Self-Driving
Capability,
which includes
features that
can assist the
driver with
parking,
changing lanes
on the
highway, and
even coming to
a complete
halt at
traffic lights
and stop
signs, remains
a misnomer ...Yes!... Below, we explain each feature in
the suite, its
intended use,
and how each
performed in
our tests....
" [Read more](https://www.consumerreports.org/autonomous-driving/tesla-full-self-driving-capability-review-falls-short-of-its-name/) Hmmmm.... [See Video](https://www.consumerreports.org/autonomous-driving/tesla-full-self-driving-capability-review-falls-short-of-its-name/), [Watch Zoom-Cast](https://youtu.be/AfRb9B-9boc). Help with
parking....
no one parks
a good car
into a tight
parking place;
else, that
car's life as
a god car
rapidly
disappears.
Stupid Summon
is just
stupid... your
car is not
your dog and
certainly not
in the WalMart
parking lot.
(or should I
have said
WholePaycheck
parking lot)
Here puppy,
here puppy!
I really like what Consumer Reports has been doing on this front. Trying to help consumers understant what is what. Alain
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Saturday,
[The Biggest Self-Driving Truck Startup Stumbles in Hitting High Goals](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/the-biggest-self-driving-truck-startup-stumbles-in-hitting-high-goals)
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Thursday,
[Car OEMs Driving Toward Relevance or Perdition](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ltmk5s3hdpwf6nr/The-Dispatcher_August-2020.pdf?dl=0)
###
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Thursday,
[Fostering Economic Opportunity through Autonomous Vehicle Technology](https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_bUHzsV9BSm-tJkKQ6QVNqg)
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Thursday,
Announcing 2020-2021 Fellow-in-Residence Henry L. Greenidge, Esq. rgb(51, 51, 255);”>Thursday,
[Luminaries Battle In Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate About The Future Of Self-Driving Cars](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceeliot/2020/04/28/luminaries-battle-in-lincoln-douglas-style-debate-about-the-future-of-self-driving-cars/#35c0455028b6)
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Friday,
What Negative Oil Prices Mean and How the Impact Could Last rgb(51, 51, 255);”>Friday,
Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead?
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Friday,
January 31,
2020
2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about ‘Smaht Pahk’
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Sunday,
January 12,
Hmmmm… Reflections
A. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm… Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I’m about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don’t sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the ‘chrome and fins’ that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only ‘Waymo-style Driverless’ (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Monday,
January 6,
2020
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm… I’m in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I’m looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don’t feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Saturday,
November 23,
2019 [Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article237625484.html)
rgb(51, 51,
255);">
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Saturday,
September 28,
2019 [Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton](https://planetprinceton.com/2019/09/22/public-forum-will-explore-possibility-of-transit-on-demand-in-princeton/)
rgb(51, 51,
255);">Thursday,
November 22,
Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
October 24,
New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles
Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)
Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164Sponsors: Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)
Oct 16, [Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541](https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2018/Bills/A5000/4541_I1.PDF) Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14);
Lampitt
(D6)..." [Read more](https://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/NVIDIA-Self-Driving-Safety-Report-2018.pdf)Hmmmm.... Things are beginning to move in New
Jersey. Alain
Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash) May 24, “About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.
…The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."[Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/NTSBuberPreliminaryMay2018.pdf) Hmmmm.... Uber must believe
that its
systems are
better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
“…According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph…“ (= 63 feet/second) So the system started “seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away… more than a football field, including end zones!
“…As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path…“ (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this “object’ as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected ”future travel paths.” Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber’s system attached to the “object”, then the “vehicle”. Why didn’t the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision? If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren’t they accurate? Why was the object classified as a “Vehicle” ?? When did it finally classify the object as a ”bicycle”? Why did it change classifications? How often was the classification of this object done. Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object. In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a”pedestrian”when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber’s Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)
“…At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision” (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
“…According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. …“ NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle behavior Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating “ ”erratic vehicle behavior”. This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber system’s false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.
“…The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. ” Wow! If Uber’s system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past “Peak valuation”.
“…The system is not designed to alert the operator. “ That may be the only good part of Uber’s design. In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don’t waste your time. If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast of SmartDrivingCar, 10, 2018 Don’t Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
Sunday, December 19, 2015 Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars Video similar to part of Adam’s Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm … Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research &
Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous
Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
609-258-4657 (o)
609-980-1427 (c)
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Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
609-258-4657 (o)
609-980-1427 (c)
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