9.11 - Not FSD
rgb(51, 51, March 19, 2021
blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;">11th edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Tesla's "Full Self Driving" Beta Is Just Laughably Bad and Potentially Dangerous
M. Hogan, March 19, "A beta version of Tesla's "Full Self Driving" Autopilot update has begun rolling out to certain users. And man, if you thought "Full Self Driving" was even close to a reality, this video of the system in action will certainly relieve you of that notion. It is perhaps the best comprehensive video at illustrating just how morally dubious, technologically limited, and potentially dangerous Autopilot's "Full Self Driving" beta program is...." Read more
Hmmmm... The Videois MUST watch. This is what I would call a "Semi-SelfDriving Alpha" product in this Operational Design Domain (non-dense city/commercial suburban streets, during daylight, in clear weather with moderate temperature conditions).
Drivers have four (4) "responsibilities". 1. Feet/foot on/near the pedals, 2. Hand(s) on the wheel, 3. Eyes on the road, and 4. Butt in the driver's seat (and possibly 5.... Have reasonable cognitive brain functions). If the Operational Design Domain is a straight lane with a slight downgrade and nothing else around, my "55 Chevy" can "Self-drive" and even be "Driverless". I don't even have to be in it. However, we must all agree, that we can't call my "55 Chevy" a "Driverless" car. We can't even call it a Self-driving because I'm going to need to have my butt is the driver's seat to do something when the ODD changes (the road turns , ...) and it is, at best, Semi-Self driving because my eyes will need to be on the road for me to realize that the "55 Chevy" is about to exit its ODD. It is going to need help from me to not crash.
So Elon's FSD is definitely Semi-SelfDriving because its ODD doesn't come close to including many of the situations that it found in its video journey above. It is Alpha because any potential user can be expected to have little if any idea what is required to use this product without getting hurt. So, please be very careful out there and don't stop paying attention to the road ahead!!! Alain
Empathy –> Trust –> Human-Centric Autonomous Mobility Design
K. Pyle, March 20, "To create successful mobility solutions, one must be willing to empathetically listen to all people and in locations that are convenient for them. This is one of the insights of Henry Greenidge, moderator of the 3/18/21 Smart Driving Car Summit panel, Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility. As the founder of OurMobileFuture, a former Cruise executive and current Fellow-In-Residence at the NYU McSilver Institute of Poverty Policy & Research, Greenidge brings a big picture view that transcends silos, which is exactly what is needed to create people-serving, autonomous mobility.
Smart Driving Car Summit organizer and Princeton Professor, Alain Kornhauser, set the stage by suggesting the measurement of driverless success depends upon factors such as: ..." Read more
Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken. Alain
Kornhauser & He, March 2021 "AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative"
Ken Pyle Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
11th Session 3/05/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/05/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
Michael Sena's Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204,
Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, ".With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker's new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table...and a look at the future of auto insurance.." Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
4th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
13th Live Episode: Live on Zoom
Improving the Moving of Goods
Help for the drivers and help for the logistics companies
noon ET, Thursday, Georgia, serif;">
Georgia, serif;"> Video Summary of 1st Session: Setting the Stage
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
The federal government is investigating yet another Tesla Autopilot crash
A. Hawkins, March 10, "The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating another Tesla crash in which Autopilot was allegedly in use.
The crash took place outside of Lansing, Michigan, when the driver of a Tesla Model Y smashed into a state trooper's cruiser. Michigan police said the driver was using Autopilot, Tesla's advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS), at the time of the crash. No one was injured, but the government sent investigators to the scene to determine how Autopilot may have contributed to the crash...." Read more
Hmmmm...
and...
Tesla is under scrutiny from feds again over crash with semi truck
F. Lambert, March 16, "Tesla is again under scrutiny from the US federal government over a Tesla vehicle that crashed into the trailer of a semi truck in Detroit...." Read more
Hmmmm...
It is really hard to believe that Tesla hasn't fixed its Automated Emergency Braking System (AEBs) so as to reliably be able to determine if it can safely pass under a stationary object in its lane ahead, rather than simply assuming that it can and naively "fuhgeddaboudit". Maybe their radars, cameras and "AI" aren't up to the task and they need LiDAR. Maybe NHTSA or someone needs to make Tesla liable in these situations until they fix this and put in driver-focused sensors and "AI" that will ensure that the driver is paying attention to the road ahead; else pull over and disable AutoPilot/FSD or whatever Tesla chooses to call these systems.
Tesla's AEBs don't work well enough; the driver MUST remain alert ready to assess: "can I pass under that police car parked or that trailer stopped broadside in my lane ahead? Alain
Two states tax some drivers by the mile. Many more want to give it a try.
I. Duncan, March 12, " Bruce Starr spotted the problem right away: The hydrogen-powered cars General Motors was showing off on the Oregon Capitol grounds wouldn't need gas. And if they didn't need gas, drivers wouldn't be paying gas taxes that fund the state's roads.... " Read more
Hmmmm... Stop right there... By the time Hydrogen-powered cars have anything more than an infinitesimally small market share that they could affect anything, our children may not even be here any longer. And to use this "fuzz on a tick's ear" as an excuse to overturn what may well be one of the most elegant (def: simple, effective and pretty much "game proof") taxing systems ever devised, is truly unbelievable.
There are only two reasons one would want to change the current gas tax system: 1. One has a gizmo/service to sell that will be required to collect that tax and paid for by that collected tax (leaving even less to build new roads, so what?!?!) and/or this is a back-door way to increase the tax rate on everyone.
The beauty of the gas tax is that it is collected from a few "corporates" at the wholesale level who make sure that they are reimbursed by each of the many consumers at the time of their purchase. The same could be true of electrons (or hydrogen) by placing a meter (electric companies already have meters at each house) on the electric plug that could then be used to add the tax onto the cost of the electricity that is being used to recharge the battery. (I'll start making & selling those meters. 😁)
If you don't want me to get rich on this, and your agenda is to subsidize the sale and use of electric vehicles, then why not just eliminate most of the transaction costs, by keeping the money in the public treasury, allocating it builders" and not tax the electricity used by electric cars .
Rebates for the purchase of (some) electric cars is/was $7,500. Fuel taxes average about $0.50/gallon and way most are less than $0.75. For a car getting 20 miles/gallon, this is a whopping, $0.025 -> $0.375/mile. That means that means that the $7,500 rebate is equivalent to not paying gas tax for 200,000 -> 300,000 miles of driving; essentially all of the car's life. (plus that money is upfront, so there is a time-value-of-$$$ benefit here, too). So those that are trying to save the planet and worried they won't be able to build new roads (and maintain old roads) are promoting a, surely burdensome, new taxing structure on gasoline cars, when a trivial ledger shift would do the same and more??? I don't get it!! Alain
Motor Vehicle Deaths in 2020 Estimated to be Highest in 13 Years, Despite Dramatic Drops in Miles Driven
March 4, "For the first time since 2007, preliminary data from the National Safety Council show that as many as 42,060 people are estimated to have died in motor vehicle crashes in 2020. That marks an 8% increase over 2019 in a year where people drove significantly less frequently because of the pandemic. The preliminary estimated rate of death on the roads last year spiked 24% over the previous 12-month period, despite miles driven dropping 13%. The increase in the rate of death is the highest estimated year-over-year jump that NSC has calculated since 1924 – 96 years. It underscores the nation's persistent failure to prioritize safety on the roads, which became emptier but far more deadly..." Read more
Hmmmm... This is REALLY bad and a result of people who drove behaving REALLY bad. Not only did the well-behaving drivers stay home so as to not deflate the "rate per VMT" but the rate itself went up. Since an overwhelming percentage of crashes are due to driver misbehavior, this data point suggests that those misbehaving misbehaved even more. More speeding, more texting, more ......" Not at all good! Alain
Autonomous Delivery Robots Are Now 'Pedestrians' in Pennsylvania
S. Blanko, march 7, "A Pennsylvania state law has gone into effect giving delivery drones the right to operate on city sidewalks, and it also classified them as pedestrians.
This makes Pennsylvania the latest in a string of states, plus Washington, D.C., to let these delivery robots maneuver around towns...." Read more
Hmmmm... This to me sounds really bad! In some/many communities, bicycles and scooters or anything motorized are not permitted on sidewalks. This might be OK because there really aren't any of these delivery things anywhere, but they'll never be able to scale where sidewalks exist for people to walk and few, if any, communities are going to make homeowners put in sidewalks for these things. These things can't scale. This won't end well. Alain
'You Never Need to Walk Into a Showroom': Electric Vehicles Are Forcing Car Companies to Rethink Retail
Z. Estrada, March 9, "The days of Southern California's gigantic car dealerships may be numbered.
That's because a statewide push toward electric vehicles, which require less maintenance than gasoline-powered cars and can be sold more easily online, is forcing automakers to rethink the retail experience. ... " Read more
Hmmmm... What do you think Sheldon??? Let's see, in the past dealerships helped with keeping what I bought working well. I was doing all of the work to drive it with comfort and convenience items being limited to "soft Corinthian leather". Now with all of the Self-driving comfort&convenience features, I'll have more time to do more in and with my car. Isn't there a profit opportunity somewhere in there to provide better customer service and to enhance my experience with the car, rather than to fix my problems???
Also, a major problem that Dealerships may have is: there may well be a perception that they are not welcoming to all. They have a "Mad Men" legacy of catering to only one male-kind. Alain
GM says U.S. should extend consumer, investment tax credits to boost electric vehicles
D. Shepardson, March 11, "General Motors President Mark Reuss said Thursday the U.S. government should extend new investment tax credits for electric vehicle manufacturing and supply chains and expand consumer incentives to electric vehicle purchases, including for used vehicles...." " Read more
Hmmmm...The new definition of "Self-serving". Please look above at a better better way to promote electric cars.
What the public sector should do is to give the dollar equivalent of those subsidies to the road maintenance and building crews instead of "GM" and promote EVs by not ever having them pay any road user tax. The public sector would then be financially net-neutral, at worse. Why not also increase the gas tax on gas guzzlers and become very net-positive. That's an efficient and likely very effective way to promote EVs Alain
Developing an Autonomous Freight Network within the US regulatory lanscape
A. Davis, March, 9, "The US Department of Transportation has taken many steps over the last five years to clarify the Federal, State and local roles and approaches to automated driving.
However, many of these policies are still in the process of being included in regulations and laws and so are not yet final. There have been many discussions about how the Biden Administration will address the developments made in autonomous trucking. ..." Read more
Hmmmm... We are about as close to autonomous trucking as Elon is to FSD. The only thing that we are going to do any time soon is substantially improve the work environment of the 300,000-500,000 trucking jobs. None are going to be lost, just improved. Plus if these is an "autonomous freight network", it can be found in the nation's freight railroads! Alain
BMW's new curved iDrive display is a 'major step' toward autonomous driving
A. Hawkins, March 15, "BMW is pulling the curtain back on its next iteration of iDrive, the software and infotainment platform that has served as the centerpiece of the automaker's in-car experience for the last 20 years....." Read more
Hmmmm... True, this is a travelTainment system. It has very little to do with "autonomous driving", except it is so distracting to the driver that a Self-drive system is needed for this system to not lead to "driver distraction product liability" claims. Alain
Should Pedestrians Wear Radar Reflectors So Self-Driving Cars Can See Them?
L. Alter, March 8, "..."Read more
Hmmmm... Is this week nothing but Half-baked, Click-Bait and/or C'mon Man??? So bad!! Pedestrians today wear black at night. We can't even get them to wear light colored clothing so that we have a chance of seeing them and and not hitting them. While I'm driving my '55 Chevy (or any car produced before 20xx (xx large)) this Gizmo is useless.
Plus, "all" of the Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) systems on the market today disregard detected objects in the lane ahead whose approach speed is essentially equal to the car's speed. That may well be thanks to the SAE who seems to be more concerned positives, driver discomfort and rear-end collisions than not being able to pass under stationary objects detected in the lane ahead. Alain
0, 0);">Annual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit 13th Episode at noon on March 25, 2021 TO BE followed by 8 more weekly episodes through to April15, 2021. Each episode starting Live on Zoom @ noon Eastern (Princeton Time) and lasting for 1.5 hours or until Discussion with audience ends. A. Kornhauser, Feb 6, "The focus of the Summit this year will be moving beyond the AI and the Sensors to addressing the challenges of Commercialization and the delivery of tangible value to communities. We've made enormous progress with the technology. We're doing the investment; however, this investment delivers value only if is commercialized: made available and is used by consumers in large numbers. Demos and one-offs are "great", but to deliver value that is anywhere near commensurate with the magnitude of the investment made to date, initial deployments need to scale. We can't just have "Morgantown PRT Systems" whose initial deployment has been nothing but enormously successful for 45 years (an essentially perfect safety record, an excellent availability record and customer valued mobility). Unfortunately, the system was never expanded or duplicated anywhere. It didn't scale. It is a one-off.
Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale. In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va. which became the reference for many other cites. "... By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague's equipment had been begun or planned on several continents..." Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology. It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.
In part, the 4th Summit will focus on defining the "Richmond" of Affordable Shared-ride On-demand Mobility-as-a-Service. The initial Operational Design Domain (ODD) that safely accommodates Driverless Mobility Machines that people actually choose to use and becomes the envy of communities throughout the country. " Read more
Hmmmm... Draft Program is in flux. Consider all named individuals as "Invited yet to be confirmed". Alain
C'mon Man!(These folks didn't get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
Calendar of Upcoming
Events:s
4th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
13th Live Episode: Live on Zoom
Improving the Moving of Goods
Help for the drivers and help for the logistics companies
noon ET, Thursday, Georgia, serif;">
Georgia, serif;"> Video Summary of 1st Session: Setting the Stage
and
The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT - 22 - 25 MARCH 2021.
Georgia, serif;">
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Kockelman's AV Research Group at U of Texas
These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser
F. Fishkin, March 13, ".GM's move to transform auto insurance through OnStar Insurance: Is it a win, win for all? Is adaptive cruise control prompting some drivers to speed? And what does Tesla really mean by "full self driving"? Just some of the questions tackled in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202, Zoom-Cast Episode 202 President & CEO, RoadDB
F. Fishkin, March 3, "When will we be able to purchase cars that can largely drive themselves? It may not be long...but don't expect to vacate the driver's seat. That's the view of entrepreneur, tech pioneer and RoadDB CEO Russ Shields. He takes an in depth look at where we are and where we're headed with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201, Zoom-Cast Episode 201 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Feb. 26, "Smarter cars need smarter assembly...and location matters. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at that, politics, climate and carmakers...plus Tesla, Velodyne, Foxconn and more.." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200, Zoom-Cast Episode 200 w/Edwin Olsen, CEO, May Mobility
F. Fishkin, Feb. 22, "How May Mobility is building confidence in autonomous transportation and creating a road map for growth through the pandemic and beyond. CEO and co-founder Edwin Olson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 199, Zoom-Cast Episode 199 w/Marc Scribner, Senior Transportation Policy Analyst, Reason Foundation
F. Fishkin, Feb. 19, "How the Biden administration & Congress can pave the path for autonomous vehicles. Reason Foundation Sr. Transportation Policy Analyst Marc Scribner joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to focus on what's next. Plus jobs and autonomous trucking, Waymo, GM, Ford and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 198, Zoom-Cast Episode 198 w/Dick Mudge, CEO, Compass Transportation & Technology
F. Fishkin, Feb. 13, Which autonomous vehicle companies will be the last standing? And does private ownership of self driving cars make sense? Compass Transportation and Technology President Dick Mudge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Tesla, GM, Toyota and more..." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 197, Zoom-Cast Episode 197 w/Michel Parent, Founding Member of SuburVan
F. Fishkin, Feb. 5, "Smart mobility innovation in France. Dr. Michel Parent founding member of SuburVan is aiming to provide fully autonomous mobility on the outskirts of Paris and more. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Ford, GM, Tesla, VW and more...."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 196, Zoom-Cast Episode 196 w/Steve Polzin, Recently US DoT
F. Fishkin, Jan. 24, "Will more safe vehicle technology dampen the push for driverless mobility? Measuring the progress and challenges ahead with Dr. Steven Polzin..former Sr. Advisor, Office of the Ass't. Secretary for Research and Technology in the DOT. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin ... plus GM going zero emission, Tesla, Waymo and more.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 195 Zoom-Cast Episode 195 w/Diana Furchtgott-Roth, G. Washington U.
F. Fishkin, Jan. 24, "What progress has been made towards smarter, safer mobility? The push for a back-up to GPS. Why the jump in vehicle fatalities last year? Those issues and more as former deputy assistant U.S. Transportation Secretary for research and technology Diana Furchtgott Roth joins us. Plus...Microsoft, Cruise, Tesla and more on Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 194 Zoom-Cast Episode 194 w/Anuj Pradhan, UMass
F. Fishkin, Jan. 15, ""When it comes to vehicle safety technology...should manufacturers be sharing instead of competing? Should there be standardization? Anuj Pradhan, co-director of the Human Performance Lab at UMASS Amherst joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest from GM, Tesla, Mobileye, Nio and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 193 Zoom-Cast Episode 193 w/Bobby Hambrick, AutonomousStuff
F. Fishkin, Jan. 8, "Bobby Hambrick started AutuonomouStuff in a barn in Morton, Illinois....and has pioneered much of the technology moving the autonomous industry forward, now as part of Hexagon. Bobby joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to look back and look ahead. Plus...Apple, Hyundai, Waymo, Tesla and more! "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 192 Zoom-Cast Episode 192 w/Danny Shapiro, nVIDIA
F. Fishkin, Dec. 30, "NVIDIA continues on a roll powering the Zoox robo taxi unveiled this month by Amazon. NVIDIA senior director of automotive Danny Shapiro outlines the progress and looks ahead to 2021 in the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 191 Zoom-Cast Episode 191 w/ Louis Aaron'23 and Joel Johnson
F. Fishkin, Dec. 20, "College student Joel Johnson has been keeping a log of dozens of trips in Waymo's self driving service in Chandler, Arizona, and posting videos on YouTube. Louis Aaron'23, another student, has been working with Elon Musk's Boring Company in Las Vegas. The two share their experiences with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in the latest Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 190 Zoom-Cast Episode 190 w/Chris Urmson, Aurora
F. Fishkin, Dec. 15, "With Aurora taking over Uber's self driving efforts, what is on the horizon for the start up whose leaders have roots at Waymo, Tesla and Uber? Co-founder and CEO Chris Urmson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in this special edition of Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 187 Zoom-Cast Episode 187 w/Michael Sena, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Nov 25, "What you should know about electric cars, climate change and more. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye opening edition of Smart Driving Cars.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 186 Zoom-Cast Episode 186 w/Kelly Funkhouser, Consumer Report
F. Fishkin, Nov 24, "When it comes to active driver assistance systems, what works and what needs improvement? Some answers from Kelly FunkhouserÃÆ'¢â‚¬Â¦ program manager for vehicle interface, head of connected and automated vehicles at Consumer Reports. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 186 of Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 185 Zoom-Cast Episode 185 w/Dan Smith, Waymo F. Fishkin, Nov 20, "Only Waymo has been transporting customers in driverless vehicles without a safety monitor on board. What goes into that kind of decision? Waymo Assistant General Counsel Dan Smith joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in this special edition of Smart Driving Cars." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 184 Zoom-Cast Episode 184 w/Marjory Blumenthal, Rand F. Fishkin, Nov 20, "So when are driverless vehicles safe enough to be deployed? Senior Rand Corporation policy researcher Marjory Blumenthal joins Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to examine her latest report and more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 183 Zoom-Cast Episode 183 w/Kirsten Korosec F. Fishkin, Nov 13, "Rivian's hands free driver assistance will be standard equipment...while Ford unveils the E-Transit. TechCrunch Senior Transportation reporter and editor Kirsten Korosec joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Nuro, Tesla, Uber, Lyft, Cruise and more. Plus the coming changes for mobility under a new administration!"
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 182 Zoom-Cast Episode 182 F. Fishkin, Nov 6, "What will a new administration mean for autonomous mobility? And what about the passage of Proposition 22 in California after Uber's big campaign? That plus luxury EVs coming from Bentley....and cheap EVs from China. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 181 Zoom-Cast Episode 181 w/Sheldon Sandler & Glenn Mercer F. Fishkin, Oct. 30, "Waymo releases self driving data...while traditional car dealers enjoy surprisingly strong profits during the pandemic. Why? What about the coming autonomous mobility? Bell Air Partners' Sheldon Sandler and researcher-consultant Glenn Mercer explain in Episode 181 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 180 Zoom-Cast Episode 180 w/John Rich, Ford/Argo, part 2 F. Fishkin, Oct. 15, "Ford and Argo AI have unveiled their next generation self-driving test vehicle. Once again, Ford's Director of Autonomous Vehicle and Technology Development John Rich joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to unveil the technology and the company's self driving business plans." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 179 Zoom-Cast Episode 179 w/John Rich, Ford/Argo F. Fishkin, Oct. 15, "Which autonomous vehicle platforms will survive? The director of Ford's Autonomous Vehicle and Technology Development says there may only be two...and Ford /Argo AI will be one of them. John Rich joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 178 Zoom-Cast Episode 178 w/Andrew Hawkins, Verge F. Fishkin, Oct. 9, "Here we go! Waymo going fully driverless in Phoenix suburb service. The Verge senior transportation reporter Andrew Hawkins joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla... Amazon... Rivian and more. Subscribe!
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 177 Zoom-Cast Episode 177
F. Fishkin, Oct. 2, "New grades for assisted driving systems from Euro NCAP. But Princeton Professor Alain Kornhauser says the devil is in the details in this edition with co-host Fred Fishkin. And there's Amazon's success against Covid plusTesla, Uber, GM, Nikola and more. SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 176 Zoom-Cast Episode 176 w/Marc Scribner
F. Fishkin, Sept. 25, "A new government entity to oversee autonomous vehicles? Marc Scribner, Sr. Transportation Policy Analyst at the Reason Foundation on regulation and more with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Tesla, Nikola, GM and the California move to ban new gasoline vehicles."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 175 Zoom-Cast Episode 175 w/Michael Sena F. Fishkin, Sept. 18, "Automobility and the future of car dealers... "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena offers a different take on how car dealers may battle automakers pushing for direct to consumer subscriptions. That and more in this edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 174 Zoom-Cast Episode 174 w/Kelly Funkhouser, Consumer Reports
F. Fishkin, Sept. 4, "Moving forward with autonomous vehicle testing, the head of safety at Uber's Advanced Technology Group is pledging safety data transparency. Nat Beuse joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for that and more on the latest mobility headlines." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 173 Zoom-Cast Episode 173 w/Nathanial Beuse F. Fishkin, Sept. 4, "Moving forward with autonomous vehicle testing, the head of safety at Uber's Advanced Technology Group is pledging safety data transparency. Nat Beuse joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for that and more on the latest mobility headlines." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 172Zoom-Cast Episode 172 Special Edition w/Danny Shapiro
F. Fishkin ,Sept. 2, "Mercedes unveils the latest S Class with more computing power than 60 average cars...with NVIDIA playing a big role. NVIDIA's Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 171Zoom-Cast Episode 171 w/Henry Greenidge
SmartDrivingCars PodCast 170 ZoomCast Episode170 w/Michael Sena SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 169 ZoomCast Episode 169 w/Anthony Townsend SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 168 ZoomCast Episode 168 w/Olaf Sakkers SmartDrivingCars PodCast 167 ZoomCast Episode167 w/Robin Chase, Carlos Pardo & Daniel Sperling SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 166ZoomCast Episode 166 w/Jay Rodgers'95, CEO Local Motors
Zoom-inar Episode 005 AmaZooks
F. Fishkin, July 20, "Is Driverless home delivery the fastest route to Affordable Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged? ... "
SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 165,ZoomCast Episode165 w/Michael Sena
F. Fishkin 16, "Is the option to buy a car at a dealership going to vanish? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena has a provocative perspective in this edition with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..an update on the Amazon Zoox deal, autonomous vehicles and how they can help battle discrimination in transportation, TuSimple, Mobileye, Uber, Tesla and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast 164 Episode 164, Zoom-Cast Episode 163 w/Robbie Diamond
F. Fishkin, July 9, "Fostering economic opportunity through autonomous technology is the focus of an upcoming report from Security America's Future Energy. Founder and CEO Robbie Diamond shares details and more in this edition with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus ..are armed police officers really needed for traffic enforcement? And the latest from Tesla, Waymo and more. ..." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 163, Zoom-Cast Episode 163 w/Henry Greenidge F. Fishkin, July 2, "Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. ."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 162, Zoom-Cast Episode 162 w/Cliff Winston
F. Fishkin, June 25, "From the Brookings Institution, Cliff Winston, co-author of Autonomous Vehicles...The Road to Economic Growth? joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..why are fatal crash rates rising in the midst of a pandemic...plus NVIDIA, Didi, Tesla and more."
Episode 004 Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
F. Fishkin, June 23, "But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about ..."
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Zoom-inar (Video replay) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
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PodCast (Audio Only) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
Hmmm... We only scratched the surface. Alain SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 161,Zoom-Cast Episode 161 w/Alberto Stochino F. Fishkin, June 17, "Is less data sometimes more when it comes to driverless vehicle technology? Perceptive Founder and CEO Alberto Stochino joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the DOT's new plan for sharing autonomous safety information, the latest from Tesla, EVs from China and more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 160, Zoom-Cast Episode 160 w/Jessica Cicchino F. Fishkin, June 12, "Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Research VP Jessica Cicchino co-authored a new study saying self driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to discuss the study. Plus the latest on Tesla, Ford & VW, Covid-19 and more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 159, Zoom-Cast Episode 159 w/Kara Kockelman F. Fishkin, June 4, "Prof. Kara Kockelman's focus on smart transportation to save lives, money and the environment has made her a sought after global expert. The U. of Texas Transportation Engineering Professor joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on the impact of Covid-19 and much more. Plus Tesla, Uber, Argo AI and the top smart driving headlines. For more on Dr. Kockelman's work....please visit... http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman."
DrivingTheDebate Episode 003 Everyone's for Connectivity; but... F. Fishkin, June 2, "But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about ..."
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Zoom-inar (Video replay) Everyone's for Connectivity; but...
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PodCast (Audio Only) Everyone's for Connectivity; but...
Hmmm... We only scratched the surface. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 158, Zoom-Cast Episode 158 w/Chunka Mui
F. Fishkin, May 28, "In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, what are the smartest ways to re-build and plan for the future? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Amazon, Zoox, Intel Mobileye, Tesla, Uber and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 157, Zoom-Cast Episode 157 w/Grayson Brulte
F. Fishkin, May 21, "Global auto makers must completely re-think their autonomous mobility strategy as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. So says innovation strategist Grayson Brulte of Brulte & Company....who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Waymo, Tesla, Uber and more."
DrivingTheDebate Episode 002 The Future of Public Roadway Transit F. Fishkin, May 14, "Will the Bus be Thrown Under the Bus?...
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Zoom-inar Video (Video replay)Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
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PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 156, Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 156 w/Danny Shapiro2 F. Fishkin, May 14, "With new hardware and software capabilities NVIDIA is expanding into new areas of driver assistance technology. Sr. Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Waymo, Voyage, Ford and more. listen and subscribe!"
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 155,Zoom-Cast Episode 155 w/Alex Roy2 F. Fishkin, April 29, "The continuing impact of Covid-19 on autonomous vehicle progress. But it may not be all bad news. Alex Roy...host of the No Parking Podcast and Director of Special Operations at Argo AI joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Intel, Lyft, Uber and more. Listen and subscribe!
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 154, Zoom-Cast Episode 154 w/Dan Sperling F. Fishkin, April 29, "Can ride sharing rebound after the pandemic? Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo, Ford and more."
DrivingTheDebate Episode 001 The Driverless "New Normal" Debate F. Fishkin, April 27,
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SmartDrivingCar PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Driverless New Normal Debate
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Zoom Audience Questions (Only a few were addressed in Zoom-inar)
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Zoom Audience Comments
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 153, Zoom-Cast Episode 153 w/Dick Mudge2
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 152,Zoom-Cast Episode 152 w/Brad Templeton
SmartDrivingCars Podcast Episode 148 w/Richard Bishop
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 148 w/Richard Bishop
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O'Toole
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit Leilei Shinohara & Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena'69
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy
Recent Highlights of:
Saturday, March 13, 2021
General Motors Aims to Transform Auto Insurance Industry with OnStar Insurance
Press Release, March 11, "GM announced it will take its relentless focus on safety and delivering a world-class customer experience one step further with OnStar Insurance. ... OnStar Insurance Services intends to leverage its unique understanding of the vehicles GM produces to offer..." Read more
Hmmmm.... See Kornhauser's Automated Driving of Road Vehicles 101: Why, What, Where, When. Also:
Given that:
1. ">90%" crashes involve driver misbehavior;
2. OEMs are including more SmartDriving technology in cars. That technology comes in two part: a. SafelyDriven technology which "works" essentially everywhere, all the time to avert crashes by mitigating driver misbehavior, see #1 above..
i. Examples: anti-lock brakes, electronic stability control, automated emergency braking, blind spot warning, ...) ii. Liability/Insurance implications: the better these work the lower the expected liability, the lower the expected LOSS and the happier the company that insures their owners. 😁! iii. OnStar/GM Insurance Advantage: They know earlier and better how well these systems can be expected to work. They designed and tested the systems before they put them in the showroom and have "the data" to compute better expected liabilities by driver characteristics and thus be better able to craft and price an insurance product for each purchaser of a GM vehicle. Simply, they will be better able to "know when to hold 'em .. know when to fold 'em ... they can better know what's comin'".
b. SelfDriving technology which works only some of the time and some of the places (Don't worry, as soon as they work all of the time and all of the places it will be a very big deal and you'll know it, but don't hold your breath.)
Nor do any of them perform better than an average driver that is not misbehaving. Again, don't hold your breath. Consequently these systems are Comfort & Convenience features that, at best, should not degrade safety. To not degrade safety, these systems must work properly when engaged by the driver and the driver must not engage them when and where these systems aren't going to work properly. (... Drivers must not misbehave in the use of these systems (... Use these systems outside their certified Operational Design Domain, ODD)).
i. Examples: Cruise Conroe (Feet-off , but required the driver to steer (Hands-on), be aware and alert (Eyes-on) and be seated in the driver's seat (Butt-in), and available only in a certain speed range, lane-grade range, doesn't respond to traffic signals, doesn't work if there is a stationary object in the lane ahead, ...); Automated lane keeping ({Feet-on, Hands-off, Eyes-on, Butt-in}, but only if proper lane markings exist); Automated parking ({Feet-off, Hands-off, Eyes-on, Butt-out} all starting from speed zero in an area that is recognized by the systems as a parking opportunity); StupidSummon ({Feet-off, Hands-off, Eyes-on, Butt-out}, but only available within the driver's own property), "Level3" ({Feet-off, Hands-off, Eyes-off, Butt-in}, but only on some certified in real time road segments.)
ii. Liability/Insurance implications: To date these systems have been sold on a "buyer beware" basis in that all liability implications of their use fell on the shoulders of the driver and their insurer. Consequently, misuse of these systems was the driver's/insurer's "problem". Unfortunately, misuse of these systems and the resulting degradation of safety can be expected to cause regulators to insist that future versions of these SelfDriving technologies must include monitoring systems that preclude them from being available, let alone be used, outside of their real-time Operational Design Domain(ODD) for which their functionality has been "certified by the OEM" to not degrade safety. This "floor" for safety can be expected to be that experienced by an average non-misbehaving driver in similar driving situations.
This implies that if a crash happens during the use of one of these systems, it is 1. one of these "rare" events in which the driver was not misbehaving. The insurer is dragged in and may well be liable (This is what insurance is supposed to be all about), or 2. the system failed in its automated driving function. The OEM is dragged in and may well be liable from a product liability standpoint or 3. the driver was mis-behaving in the use of the system. This means that the system failed in precluding the system's use. The OEM is dragged in and may well be liable from a product liability standpoint.
3. Implications on Insurer: Let: $Aij be the distribution of expected expenses of "being dragged in and possibly having to pay damages" if driver i of GM car with features j gets involved in a "Rare events" crash, or crashes, over the duration of the insurance policy.
(This expense distribution is largely a function of the kinds of driving driver i is going to do. Its estimation is independent of any proprietary product information held by GM. OnStarInsurance is not advantaged.)
$Bij be the distribution of expected expenses of "being dragged in" if driver i of GM car with features j gets involved in a crash, or crashes, resulting from the failure of features j to avoid the crash when driver i was misbehaving.
(This expense distribution would arise from situations in which GM's SafelyDriven technology didn't perform perfectly. Given all of the testing that GM conducts on each of its technologies prior to their placement for sale in showroom, having access to those testing data allows OnStarInsurance to more accurately estimate this distribution.
OnStarInsurance is substantially advantaged.)
$Cij be the distribution of expected expenses of "being dragged in" if driver i of GM car with features j gets involved in a crash when the System was engaged and the incident occurred outside the System's certified ODD.
(This expense distribution would arise from situations in which GM's automated Comfort&Convenience features either didn't perform as well as a well-behaving driver inside the feature's certified ODD, or driver i was able to mis-use the system by engaging it outside its ODD. Again, given all of the testing that GM conducts on each of its technologies prior to their placement for sale in showrooms, having access to those testing data also allows one to more accurately estimate this distribution.
OnStarInsurance is substantially advantaged.)
In pricing insurance, the insurer must estimate the distribution of expected expenses associated with the crashes driver i can be expected to have in car with features j over the life of the policy and price that insurance product accordingly.
For an outside insurer, call them WB: the expenses expected to be incurred over the life of the policy to insure Driver i in the purchase of a GM car with features j = $WBij = {$Aij}wb + {$Bij}wb + {$Cij}wb
For GM: the expenses expected to be incurred over the life of the policy to insure Driver i in the purchase of a GM car with features j = $GMij = {$Bij}gm + {$Cij}gm (They get dragged in to all of the "non-rare" crashes because of product liability responsibility
For OnStar Insurance: the expenses expected to be incurred over the life of the policy to insure Driver i in the purchase of a GM car with features j = $OSij = {$Aij}os (Since GM is already dragged in, no need for OnStarInsurance to also be drawn in to defend themselves.).
Consequently, OnStar has a fundamental pricing advantage because $OSij << $WBij. Plus OnStar/GM can better estimate the $Bij and $Cij distributions. Thus OnStar "knows when to hold 'em.." in the insurance pricing game.
Finally, it is very much in GM's interest to get its SafelyDriven technologies as perfect as possible so as to minimize {$Bij}gm on every vehicle GM sells and to forbid, as best as possible, the mis-use/availability of it SelfDriving Comfort&Convenience features outside their ODD to minimize {$Cij}gm on every vehicle GM sells.
The above is an extraordinarily strong financial incentive for GM to make its SafelyDriven and Comfort&Convenience automated driving technologies as good as possible and, if they are going to do that, GM might as well also be in the insurance business. Alain
Automated Driving Technologies: Driving Change in Insurance
K. Pyle, March 5, "It is in the insurance industry's best interest to use automated driving technology to make things safer through crash avoidance, not just crash mitigation. Unlike crash mitigation, crash avoidance saves the insurance company money. This was Alain Kornhauserâ's premise for the Smart Driving Car Summit, Incentivizing Through Insurance. The trillion-dollar question is whether the incentives to automate will overcome the countervailing forces of existing business practices in other parts of the mobility industry?...." Read more
Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken. Alain
March 2021 Issue M. Sena, Feb 23, " ... There is no way to test a car virtually...
OEMs are still learning that that today's cars are not your father's Oldsmobile.
Vehicle connectivity is not something that is tacked onto a car, like a battery-operated portable TOMTOM or GARMIN (or CoPilot...Michael, How could you forget?...!)...navigation system....
Driving Neat: Can U.S. Take Its Cars Without ICE?..." Read more
Hmmmm... Plus much much more. Enjoy!!! Alain COMMENTARY: How the Biden Administration and Congress Can Pave the Path for Automated Vehicles M. Scribner, Feb. 11, "Automated vehicle technology is coming; it's advancing very quickly," said now-confirmed Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg during his confirmation hearing. “It is something that holds the potential to be transformative and I think in many ways policy has not kept up.â€
Secretary Buttigieg is absolutely correct. The U.S. Department of Transportation, specifically the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration division, has a number of tools at its disposal that can be used to modernize the federal regulatory environment to help speed the deployment of automated vehicle technologies that can greatly enhance safety, mobility, and access for all Americans. There is also an important role for Congress, especially at this early stage of automated vehicle development.
To support reform efforts within the executive and legislative branches, my new Reason Foundation policy brief, Challenges and Opportunities for Federal Automated Vehicle Policy, lays out several steps policymakers can take to adapt the automotive regulatory apparatus to automated driving system technologies. The brief is broken into three main sections: defining automated vehicles, a survey of current federal automated vehicle policy development activities, and recommendations for federal policymakers.
The reform recommendations for legislators and regulators are categorized under four themes: ..." Read more
Hmmmm... Read especially: "CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FEDERAL AUTOMATED VEHICLE POLICY". Included is an extensive discussion on the SAE Levels where Marc states: "...most legacy automakers and new automated driving developers are planning to avoid SAE Level 3 altogether.." and "Given the wide diversity of road network operating conditions, achieving SAE Level 5 poses significant challenges...." That leaves just two very different classes of AVs ... Safely-driven AVs, encompasing SAE Levels 1 & 2, that assist and support human drivers while requiring that a human driver ensures that the vehicle will be driven safely... and Driverless AVs, SAE Level 4, where the responsibility that the vehicle will be driven safely is entirely borne by the driving technology. Those are the only two kinds. Policy should focus on only those two and get those right. They are they only real opportunities for this technology ... one to help human drivers drive more safely and the other is to drive safely without any help or involvement by anyone riding long with the vehicle. Thus, the first order of business for Federal Policy is to simplify the process by concentrating on those two very diffent kinds of AVs and get those right. Alain
Biden inherits big traffic safety mess
R. Mitchell, Feb. 4, "... " Read more
Hmmmm... If the driver/owner is expected to be prepared to intervene to maintain safety, then it is NOT full anything, period. Moreover, if the owner/driver is NOT prepared, nor permitted to intervene to maintain safety, then the fleet operator is required to accept the responsibility and "make whole" any and all liabilities arising from any and all "at fault" crashes. Until Elon is willing to step up and take on that responsibility/liability or sell his cars exclusively to operating entities that assume that responsibility his Teslas are NOT full anything, period! Alain
Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System G. Laniewki, Jan 26. ":..." Read more
Hmmmm... Very nice Nation-wide investigation by my students this past Fall. Alain
G.M. Will Sell Only Zero-Emission Vehicles by 2035
N. Boudette, Jan. 28, "The days of the internal combustion engine are numbered.
General Motors said Thursday that it would phase out petroleum-powered cars and trucks and sell only vehicles that have zero tailpipe emissions by 2035, a seismic shift by one of the world's largest automakers that makes billions of dollars today from gas-guzzling pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles.
.." Read more
Hmmmm... Great! (maybe???): Good News: Zero emission vehicles; Bad News: From where cometh the marginal electricity that enables that Zero-Emission Vehicle to move and what carries that electricity to the point on the road where that electricity is used to power that Zero-Emission Vehicle? Until we have a "Zero Emission Battery" and all electricity is created using Zero Emission, GM cannot produce, nor sell, Zero Emission Vehicles that actually move (other than downhill a la Nikola). So please tout the whole story!! (Will these EVs be less polluting than an ICE that GM could build and sell "by 2035"? is the real question. The answer depends on where we will be with electricity production and distribution, the efficiency and makeup of batteries and the improvement of ICEs. (I didn't mean to imply that it was a simple question, but the NY Times should be more than click-bait.). Alain
January 29, 2021
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U Mich's Robert Hampshire joins Biden administration to work in transportation research and technology
J. Karoub, Jan. 21, "Robert Hampshire, associate professor at the University of Michiga's Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy whose research and policy engagement focuses on understanding the societal, climate and equity implications of autonomous and connected vehicles and other innovative mobility services, has joined the Biden administration to work in the U.S. Transportation .. Read more
Hmmmm... What a fantastic appointment. Congratulations Robert! Alain
AUTOMATED VEHICLES: Comprehensive Plan E. Chao, Jan. 2021, "The Automated Vehicles Comprehensive Plan (Comprehensive Plan) describes how the United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) is supporting the safe integration of Automated Driving Systems (ADS)2 into the surface transportation system. It explains Departmental goals related to ADS, identifies actions being taken to meet those goals, and provides real-world examples of how these Departmental actions relate to emerging ADS applications... " Read more
Hmmmm... I guess this is a good plan. Of course, Safety is #1, as it should be. DoT's #1 public responsibility is Safety. Whether Cyber Security and Privacy are # 2 and 3 and ahead of Enhanced Mobility and Accessibility is certainly debatable. And if the Enhanced Mobility and Accessibility of the "mobility disadvantaged that have been left behind by our current favored transport system" were to be a category, then that one should be right behind Safety at #2 if not ahead of Safety and a solid #1. The rest. as they should, are appropriately details. What is most disconcerting about the report are the images. To me, those images depict the current "haves", not "have-nots" and thus don't really address the mobility needs and desires of those whose quality-of-life could be most enhanced by automation technology. These images seem to focus the Plan on giving those that already have pretty good ways to get around, yet another way to get around, where, when you finally get right down to it, may at best be only slightly better than what they already have. This Comprehensive Plan should first be focused on providing high-quality affordable mobility to those whose quality-of-life could be most improved by such new technologies and subsequently serve those that already enjoy and can afford other high-quality forms of mobility.
Also, Elaine, thank you for a really good 4 years. You (and USDoT) were really the star of what was otherwise a most embarrassing Presidency. Also, thanks to Diana Furchtgott-Roth and many others in US DoT. Alain
January 08, 2021
Automatic braking is now on most new cars. But not GM or Fiat Chrysler vehicles C. Isidore, Dec 17, "Automatic braking, once a feature available exclusively to high-end cars, is becoming common across the industry, according to analysis from Consumer Reports and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.
.. " Read more
Hmmmm... Set up for the 3rd session of the SDC Summit. Alain
December 31, 2020 Sustainable and Attainable: Zoox Unveils Autonomous Robotaxi Powered by NVIDIA D. Shapiro, Dec. 17, "When it comes to future mobility, you may not have to pave as many paradises for personal car parking lots.
This week, autonomous mobility company Zoox unveiled its much-anticipated purpose-built robotaxi. Designed for everyday urban mobility, the vehicle is powered by NVIDIA and is one of the first level 5 robotaxis featuring bi-directional capabilities, providing a concrete view into the next generation of intelligent transportation...." Read more
Hmmmm... Watch Zoom-Cast 192. Alain
December 11, 2020
Uber, After Years of Trying, Is Handing Off Its Self-Driving Car Project
C. Metz & K. Conger, Dec 7, "Uber, which spent hundreds of millions of dollars on a self-driving car project that executives once believed was a key to becoming profitable, is handing the autonomous vehicle effort over to a Silicon Valley start-up, the companies said on Mondayh...." Read more
Hmmmm... Actually a good article. Alain
December 04, 2020
Nikola Teaches GM a Lesson S. Wilmot, Nov 30, "Nikola Corp. NKLA 0.76% isn't turning out to be the next Tesla that investors and were hoping for. ..." Read more
Hmmmm... Lessons for many in this endeavor. See alsoAndrew Hawkin's take as well as David Morris'. Alain
November 26,
The Vehicle Fuel Debate Has Been Hijacked
M. Sena, Nov. 19, "The lead article this month was inspired by a diagram I received showing how much of the energy that we generate to heat our homes, light up our rooms, make the concrete and steel to build our infrastructure and power our transportation is wasted. It's over two-thirds. Wasted! Half of it is from producing electricity.
..." Read more
Hmmmm... What can I say?? Another great edition of the Dispatcher. Be sure to read all the way through including "Musings of a Dispatcher: Cars are from Mars". Enjoy and listen/watch the following Pod/Zoom-casts. Alain
Waymo's Safety Methodologies and Safety Readiness Determinations N, Webb, Oct. 30, "As the world's most experienced developer of automated driving systems, Waymo has extensive experience in developing and applying state-of-the-art safety methodologies. Waymo's methodologies help implement Waymo's forward-looking safety philosophy: Waymo will reduce traffic injuries and fatalities by driving safely and responsibly, and will carefully manage risk as we scale our operations. Waymo's safety methodologies, which draw on well established engineering processes and address new safety challenges specific to Automated Vehicle technology, provide a firm foundation for safe deployment of our Level 4 ADS, which we also refer to as the Waymo Driver. Waymo's determination of its readiness to deploy its AVs safely in different settings rests on that firm foundation and on a thorough analysis of risks specific to a particular Operational Design Domain )...." Read more
Hmmmm... The process. Must read! Alain
Waymo Public Road Safety Performance Data M. Schwall, Oct. 30, "Waymo's mission to reduce traffic injuries and fatalities and improve mobility for all has led us to expand deployment of automated vehicles (AVs) on public roads without a human driver behind the wheel. As part of this process, Waymo is committed to providing the public with informative and relevant data regarding the demonstrated safety of Waymo's automated driving system (ADS), which we call the Waymo Driver...." Read more
Hmmmm... The substance. Must read! ...
I had the priveledge of reviewing Waymo's most recent Safety Reports 1 , 2 (above)
In the past, safety reports by the AV community have largely been a response to NHTSA'¢s Voluntary Safety Self-Assessments and have, in my opinion, been largely public relations documents. While generally descriptive about the testing processes they contain very little, if any, substantive information about their safety related experience to-date focused exclusively on driverless operation.
Safe driverless operation is absolutely necessary for AVs to evolve from extremely expensive chauffeured rides to affordable mobility available to essentially anyone throughout an Operational Design Domain (ODD). Affordability requires that the mobility be delivered without a driver or attendant on-board the vehicle. Only passengers.
The decision to remove the driver/attendant rests in part on the shoulders of public safety regulators who need to allow such operation, but more importantly, on the shoulders of the real decision makers at the AV company. In the end, it is those AV company decision makers who will be held fully responsible for any lapse in the safety of the driverless operation. These decision makers are inside the AV companies and are, of course, privy to all the details and substance about their own safety related driverless operation, which, in the past, has not been shared in their Voluntary Safety Self-assessments.
My impression is that these just released Waymo Safety Reports contain the substantive information that clearly depicts Waymo's safety-related driverless operational experience. To me, they read like internal documents meant to guide and inform internal decision makers to objectively decide if a sufficiently safe operational experience has been achieved in order to vote to fully accept the safety responsibility of driverless operation in their Operational Design Domain.
Given the information that is contained in these documents, it does not surprise me that Waymo decision makers have decided to proceed with driverless operation in the Phoenix Operational Design Domain. Had I had the responsibility of being one of the decision makers reviewing these documents, I would have also voted yes.
Alain
rgb(51, 51, October 09, 2020
Waymo starts to open driverless ride-hailing service to the public
K. Korosec, Oct. 8, "Waymo, the Google self-driving-project-turned-Alphabet unit, is beginning to open up its driverless ride-hailing service to the public.
..." Read more
Hmmmm... "...fully Driverless...". That means that Krafcik, the Waymo "Board", Alphabet's Board and all the lawyers have signed off and said... We are safe enough to basically bet the ranch that the expected value of the mobility that we'll be putting out on the streets of our Operational Design Domain, which is under our control, is worth whatever expected risk still exists that some bad things may happen. That is an enormous hurdle that has been achieved by an entity that has an enormous ranch. CONGRATULATIONS!!! It hasn't come easy, nor has it come without intese diligence and effort. CONGRATULATIONS!!! Alain rgb(51, 51, October 09, 2020
ASSISTED DRIVING GRADINGS Staff, Oct. 2020 "On this page you will find the gradings of cars tested by Euro NCAP on automated driving technologies.
September 25, 2020
Proposal for a new UN Regulation on uniform provisions concerning the approval of vehicles with regards to Automated Lane Keeping System
rgb(51, 51, September 11, 2020 Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its Name M. Monticello. Sept. 8, The features might be cutting edge, even cool, but we think buyers should be wary of shelling out $8,000 for what electric car company Tesla calls its Full Self-Driving Capability option. Tesla claims every new vehicle it builds includes all the hardware necessary to be fully autonomous, and the company says that through future over-the-air software updates, its cars should eventually be capable of driving themselves. .... Anytime anyone uses words such as "Full" the one thing that you know that they are "Full" of is .... "Full" is about a perception, not a fact. Even the definition of "autonomous" has caveats (or should I say Full of caveats?). What I interpret Elon to be selling is: sufficient hardware (sensors, memory, compute power and communications bandwidth) that, with more elegant software, may be able to do a way better job in safely driving a car. What he has never said is that this hardware plus future software is going to be good enough for him to be held responsible if something bad happens when the car is being driven by that hardware and software combination. That said, lets move on...
But for now, Full Self-Driving Capability, which includes features that can assist the driver with parking, changing lanes on the highway, and even coming to a complete halt at traffic lights and stop signs, remains a misnomer ...Yes!... Below, we explain each feature in the suite, its intended use, and how each performed in our tests.... " Read more
Hmmmm.... See Video, Watch Zoom-Cast. Help with parking.... no one parks a good car into a tight parking place; else, that car's life as a god car rapidly disappears. Stupid Summon is just stupid... your car is not your dog and certainly not in the WalMart parking lot. (or should I have said WholePaycheck parking lot) Here puppy, here puppy!
I really like what Consumer Reports has been doing on this front. Trying to help consumers understant what is what. Alain
rgb(51, 51, 255);">Saturday, The Biggest Self-Driving Truck Startup Stumbles in Hitting High Goals rgb(51, 51, 255);">Thursday, Car OEMs Driving Toward Relevance or Perdition
rgb(51, 51, 255);">Thursday, Fostering Economic Opportunity through Autonomous Vehicle Technology rgb(51, 51, 255);">Thursday,
Announcing 2020-2021 Fellow-in-Residence Henry L. Greenidge, Esq. rgb(51, 51, 255);">Thursday,
Luminaries Battle In Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate About The Future Of Self-Driving Cars rgb(51, 51, 255);">Friday,
What Negative Oil Prices Mean and How the Impact Could Last rgb(51, 51, 255);">Friday,
Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead?
rgb(51, 51, 255);">Friday, January 31, 2020
2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about 'Smaht Pahk'
rgb(51, 51, 255);">Sunday, January 12,
Hmmmm... Reflections
A. Kornhauser, Jan 12,
Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
rgb(51, 51, 255);">Monday, January 6, 2020
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6,
Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
rgb(51, 51, 255);">Saturday, November 23, 2019 Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida rgb(51, 51, 255);">
rgb(51, 51, 255);">Saturday, September 28, 2019 Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton
rgb(51, 51, 255);">Thursday, November 22,
Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
October 24,
New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles
Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)
Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164Sponsors: Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)
Oct 16, Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14); Lampitt (D6)..." Read more
Hmmmm.... Things are beginning to move in New Jersey. Alain
Testimony of Alain Kornhauser, Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS
PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash) May 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.
...The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency
braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions for detecting driver alertness and road sign information. All these Volvo functions are disabled when the test vehicle is operated in computer control..."Read more
Hmmmm.... Uber must believe that its systems are better at avoiding Collisions and Automated Emergency Braking than Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo "off the hook".
"...According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph..." (= 63 feet/second) So the system started "seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away... more than a football field, including end zones!
"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path..." (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this "object' as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected "future travel paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber's system attached to the "object", then the "vehicle". Why didn't the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision? If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren't they accurate? Why was the object classified as a "Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"? Why did it change classifications? How often was the classification of this object done. Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object. In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a"pedestrian"when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber's Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. ..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle behavior Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating " "erratic vehicle behavior". This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber system's false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.
"...The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. " Wow! If Uber's system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past "Peak valuation".
"...The system is not designed to alert the operator. " That may be the only good part of Uber's design. In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don't waste your time. If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast of SmartDrivingCar, 10, 2018 Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
Sunday, December 19, 2015 Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
609-258-4657 (o)
609-980-1427 (c)
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Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
alaink@princeton.edu
609-258-4657 (o)
609-980-1427 (c)