9.18 - Expand

May 09, 2021Newsletter archive →

rgb(51, 51, May 8, 2021

blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;">18th edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter

Why has't Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here's my theory

T. Lee, May 7, "Suburban ride-hailing is a lousy business to be in.

Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver's seat.

And then... nothing. Seven months later, Waymo has neither expanded the footprint of the Phoenix service nor has it announced a timeline for launching in a second city.

It's as if Steve Jobs had unveiled the iPhone, shipped a few thousand phones to an Apple Store in Phoenix, and then didn't ship any more for months—and wouldn't explain why.

Last Friday, two Waymo employees participated in an "ask me anything" thread on the SelfDrivingCars subreddit, a watering hole for self-driving industry insiders. Questions about expansion plans dominated the conversation.

"How are you going to scale?" one redditor asked. "What are the impediments to service expansion at this time?"

The Waymonauts responded with maddening generalities.

"We feel the same urgency to scale quickly that others do, but a ton of work goes into doing it safely," wrote Waymo's Sam Kansara."  Read more  

Hmmmm... Not at all surprising. Can you imagine trying to be better than one's own Land Rover or Porsche in car country.  That is a heavy lift.  Making it heavier is the focus on today's most entitled yuppies. That's as bad as the original focus of driverless cars on 1%ers.  Waymos are pure and simple mobility machines to get you from/to places horizontally, just as elevators do vertically ... just get you up to the "8th floor".  Why are elevators so successful at what they do?... Second best is the stairwell! They win all the time, hands down.

In Chandler, the "stairwell" is your car parked in your garage.  You don't even have to go outside in all that heat. Waymo's got to be really good to beat that! Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances "slim-to-none".  Not that the car in the garage doesn't have an enormous amount of "excess baggage". Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it. When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car. Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live.  That's a challenging market place for Waymo. It's worse than Bing v Google

A better place for Waymo  ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service.  The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car.  Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don't have access to one.  Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach "the eighth floor"; which, once they can using Waymo,  would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.

Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that's arguably the last place for Waymo to go. However, the census identifies many communities and "inner suburbs" that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household. For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice. Numerous Trenton residents would readily perceive Waymo as the "Google" in their trip mode-choice.

Another note... trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool's gambit. Since Waymos don't misbehave, it is "easy" to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about.  Alain

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212

w/Ken Pyle

F. Fishkin, May 8 , "Where does Waymo go from here?   Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles? Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.

" Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain

The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO.   For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.

You voted, and we're excited to chat about Waymo One this Friday - Ask Us Anything!

Waymo, April 29, "Hey Reddit, we're Lety Cavalcante and Sam Kansara, excited to hear your questions about our rider-only service, Waymo One!.."  Read more  

Hmmmm... Read for yourself the questions and responses. Nothing surprising and nothing really new.  About all that can be said when one is struggling to be as safe as possible while getting something to work.

They are in the right place to get the technology to work someplace. They're in the wrong market to demonstrate its ability to make a difference. Alain

Valley Metro – Waymo AV Mobility-on-Demand (MOD) Project: Experience from a Real-World Pilot Demonstration:

K. Pyle,May 8, "Overall Impressions from Ken Pyle...

Waymo reinforced their reasons for

1. Improve safety

2. Open up access to transportation for more people, particularly those with low income.

3. A greener future is what autonomous mobility promises (fewer vehicles, less downtime)..."

Read more  

Hmmmm... Thank you Ken. Interesting that "improved safety" is Waymo's #1 objective and not what they list as an "after thought" on their #2 (Open up access to transportation for more people, particularly those with low income.). Seems as if they are catering to US DoT (improving safety) rather than to those that could really benefit from the mobility service that they are trying to deliver (getting people to places they can't get to when the people want to get there (because a bus doesn't go there then (which is most places at most times)).  I suggest they rehearse saying:

1. Provide safe, high-quality, affordable, on-demand mobility to those that don't have access to their own car.

If they really want to be honest about how they would prioritize the service, should a capacity constraint be encountered, they could also think, but not say out loud:

2. Those that do have access to their own car are "welcomed to use this mobility service on an as available basis."

Alain

The Problematic Equity Case for Mass Transit

M. Scribner, May 7, "Recently, a number of politicians and activists have raised the subject of highway construction's historically disparate impact on African Americans and other minorities. The problem then and today is less about any particular type of project and more about the government's expansive power to seize private property. But the misapprehension of the core problem by some politicians and activists has led them to propose ineffective transportation policy responses. One of the most popular proposals involves portraying mass transit as an important tool to enhance social equity, but a large body of research suggests something quite different: access to private automobiles—not transit—is a powerful social equalizer.... "  Read more  

Hmmmm... That may well be true; however, a better social equalizer may be the support/leadership to create a mobility system that provides mobility that is comparable to the mobility provided by the private automobile. It is not the private automobile that is the desirable commodity that creates a level quality-of-life playing field.  It is the mobility that the private automobile has delivered that has completely tilted the quality-of-life playing field.

By delivering comparable mobility, one goes a long way to delivering comparable quality-of-life and leveling that playing field.

Moreover, the private aspect is really a net minus for the conventional automobile. The Mad Men needed to push that aspect because the conventional car's business model can't afford to pay for the labor needed to drive them to deliver their fantastic mobility. Since the business case couldn't afford a paid driver, they had to create an aura and fantasies that driving them was fun, desirable and you'd better want to d it for yourself without being paid for it. That's what has motivated the private aspects.  But as we've learned from the pandemic, we fundamentally don't like being quarantined at home and, if not manipulated by those on Madison Avenue, we likely don't fundamentally like being quarantined in a car and forced to drive it. (Note how the comfort and convenience features of driver assistance has become to Tesla and now all the other OEM).  Also, having them private just reeks havoc on efficient capitalization, utilization and efforts to save the planet.

My point is, The problem with Transit is that because it has to pay for a driver, it can only offer services where there are masses over which to distribute its labor cost. Consequently, it  can only operate between few points, at few times, when there is enough aggregation of captive demand that is can pay to have the "cars, aka:trains, buses, shuttles, ..." driven by professionals. Conventional Mass Transit is hopeless at providing non-mass mobility.

Unfortunately, many folks don't wish to live being "packed into a sardine can" yielding insufficient "Mass" for Mass Transit. What is needed is Mass-less Transit that can deliver affordable mobility from near where people want to travel from/to at about the time they want to travel. Something close to what the private automobile delivers to those so fortunate to have one and be willing and able to drive it for free.

Of course the answer is Shareable autonomousTaxi Networks (SANs)as we've proposed for Trenton, NJ as well as several other communities. That is Affordable Mass-less Transit Alain

GM CEO Mary Barra wants to sell personal autonomous vehicles using Cruise's self-driving tech by 2030

K. Korosec, May 5, "GM CEO Mary Barra sees the automaker selling personal autonomous vehicles by the end of the decade by leveraging technology from its self-driving subsidiary Cruise, according to comments made during the company's Wednesday earnings call.

Barra wasn't providing any specifics just yet, but instead laid out a vision for the automaker's future and how its stake in Cruise and its own internal effort to further develop its advanced driver assistance system Super Cruise might evolve over the next nine years.

"I've always said we have kind of a revolutionary and an evolutionary strategy around driver assistance all the way to full Level 4, Level 5 autonomy," she said, referring to automation levels designated by the SAE International...." Read more  

Hmmmm... I hope that Mary realizes that if she sells a "Level 5" she has implicitly accepted responsibility that this "Level 5 car" will drive itself everywhere without crashing.  If it crashes, she picks up the tab!

No lawyer, accountant, stock holder or spouse is going to let her do that. One of the fundamental beauties of the "car business" is that once the dealer sells it, it becomes the buyer's headache if something bad happens (except for very few instances). Alain

Volkswagen says it can profitably sell a self-driving system for €7 an hour

J. Klender, May 7, "Volkswagen is claiming that it can profitably sell a self-driving system to owners of its vehicles, and it will sell it for as little as €7 an hour. After pledging to transition to a lineup of fully electric cars in 2017, VW has been working steadily on perfecting this system, which handles the responsibility of consolidating electric controls and reducing microprocessors, a strategy that would advance the company's driver-assistance technologies...

In an interview with TopGear, Volkswagen's Klaus Zellmer says that the automaker is planning to build every vehicle it has with all the bells and whistles, and customers can then "lease" each feature from VW, not locking them into a massive purchase or extensive program with a bulky initial cost.

One of the ways it plans to do this is to introduce Over-the-Air software updates, which Volkswagen promised to make available to customers later this year.

"Over the air allows access to a car's operating system. The interesting aspect is functions on-demand," Zellmer said in an interview. "If you happened to buy a car and weren't convinced you needed an autonomous drive mode at the time, but then you decide you'd love to have it, we can switch it on, but we can then switch it off if the next owner of the car decides they don't need it."

What's even more interesting is Zellmer says that Volkswagen can charge as little as €7 an hour for a Level 4 Autonomous drive mode...."  Read more  

Hmmmm... "Level 4" !?  No way!!! That means hands--off, feet-off and eyes-off, if not also Butt-out. Insurance to cover any Level 4 may end up costing €7 per hour all by itself.

On average a car is used around 14,000 miles per year. This system will likely be used only when the car is averaging about 70mph. If half of a car's life is spent at 70mph, that means that the system might be used for about 100 hours per year; thus, providing about €700/carYear. Given that cruise control is today likely not used to that extent, this €7/hour profitability hurdle claim seems very Elonish... unrealistically optimistic.

The software download is essentially a zero cost item at scale.  The sensors, actuators and processors are all up-front, fixed-cost items that need to be included in every car, even those that will never acquire even one hour of "Level 4". I must have missed something very basic somewhere.

If VW can do "Level 4 throughout the Mercer County's Operational Design Domain at €7/hour, that is half of "minimum wage".  I'll sign a contract right now to buy all that VW can build and put them in shared-ride, on-demand mobility throughout Trenton and rolling out in Mercer County, Central Jersey , all of New Jersey and the whole the NorthEast Corridor (except Manhattan 😁).  Please call me. Alain

Recommendations for the Security of Connected and Automated Mobility

Staff, May 2021, "...The aim of this report is to provide a high-level overview of the cybersecurity challenges in the CAM sector and to highlight both the concerned CAM actors and associated recommendations. Cybersecurity in the CAM ecosystem is partially standardised and the role of standards is widely recognised. All stakeholders' contributions to the CAM ecosystem are intertwined. Standards and regulations are often not adopted uniformly worldwide, and therefore some countries may advance faster than others in building a safe and secure cybersecurity system around CAM infrastructure. In the context of growing cybersecurity threats and concerns about cybersecurity and data protection, this report aims to identify the main challenges in the current situation and to propose actionable recommendations for the different stakeholders involved in the CAM ecosystem to enhance the level of security and resilience of CAM infrastructures and systems in Europe..."  Read more  

Hmmmm...Mandatory reading.  Alain

THE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE WORLD IS SHRINKING — IT'S OVERDUE

A. Hawkins, May 7, "After years of positive vibes about the future of autonomous vehicles and nearly unrestricted access to cash from Kool-Aid-drunk venture capitalists, the AV industry is confronting some hard truths. The first is that autonomous vehicles are going to take a lot longer to reach mass scale than previously thought. The second is that it's going to be a lot more expensive, too. And the third hard truth: going it alone is no longer a viable option.

Last week, Lyft sold its self-driving car division to a subsidiary of Toyota for $550 million. Cruise bought Voyage. Aurora merged with Uber's autonomous vehicle unit. Delivery robot startup Nuro acquired self-driving truck outfit Ike. There have been so many mergers, joint ventures, and various tie-ups lately it can be difficult to keep them all straight.

Where that leaves things is a little unclear. There is still money flowing to these companies, and nearly all of the executives, engineers, and software developers working on the technology remain bullish about the future. But there is a growing sense among experts and investors that the heady days when anyone with a couple of test vehicles, some LIDAR, and a vision for the future could launch a startup are at an end. And there will definitely be more shrinkage to come.

"The consolidation is long overdue," said Raj Rajkumar, robotics professor at Carnegie Mellon University. "The AV industry has promised too much for too long, and has delivered too little."  Read more  

Hmmmm... Yup!.  So far most of the revenue is from Safe-driving and Self-Driving. Driverless revenue is still essentially at zero. However, Driverless deserves some halo -effect revenue because had Elon not created the halo that autoPilot was Driverless, he may not have sold nearly as many Teslas and maybe almost no autoPilot.  He certainly would not have sold any FSDs... (which are Self-driving and NOT Driverless.). Alain

Issues in Autonomous Vehicle Testing and Deployment

B. Canis, Updated April 23, "Autonomous vehicles have the potential to bring major improvements in highway safety. Motor vehicle crashes caused an estimated 36,096 fatalities in 2019; a study by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has shown that 94% of crashes involve human error.... "  Read more  

Hmmmm...Sorry.. human misbehavior! Right from the first sentence, this report is in dire need of another update.  While facts about the state of the recent Federal legislative initiatives are accurate, the continued perspective that this technology address first (and foremost (implied)) human error, rather than human misbehavior and barely address opportunities for substantially enhanced mobility for those not having access to a personal automobile is truly unfortunate. Alain

Accurate GPS Needed to Measure Climate Change

D.Furchtgott-Roth, May 5, "President Biden, in his address to Congress, described climate change as one of the "crises of our time," along with pandemics, terrorism, and mass migration. To resolve that crisis, it is vital to safeguard the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used to measure how the climate is changing.

Shoring up GPS is a shovel-ready project. The Transportation Department is ready to roll out a plan. Earlier this year the Department of Transportation published a report on 11 different technologies to back up and complement GPS if satellites went down.

Today – Wednesday, May 5, at 2 pm – leaders of the Transportation Department's Office of Research and Technology in three different Administrations—Biden, Trump, and Obama—will join together in a webinar hosted by George Washington University's Space Policy Institute to discuss the report and the need to strengthen GPS.... "  Read more  

Hmmmm...Absolutely necessary to protect and improve. Alain

Tesla refutes Elon Musk's timeline on 'full self-driving'

K. Korosec, May 7, "What Tesla CEO Elon Musk says publicly about the company's progress on a fully autonomous driving system doesn't match up with "engineering reality," according to a memo that summarizes a meeting between California regulators and employees at the automaker.

The memo, which transparency site Plainsite obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request and subsequently released, shows that Musk has inflated the capabilities of the Autopilot advanced driver assistance system in Tesla vehicles, as well the company's ability to deliver fully autonomous features by the end of the year. ..."  Read more 

Hmmmm...Wonder what he'll say during SNL tonight. I'm certain it will be entertaining. Andrew Hawkin's take on this.  Alain

Nixing the Fix: An FTC Report to Congress on Repair Restrictions

Staff, May 2021, "The Federal Trade Commission ("FTC" or "Commission") submits this report pursuant to Congress's directive for the Commission to report to the Committees on Appropriations of the House and Senate regarding anticompetitive practices related to repair markets.1 When directing the Commission to issue this report, Congress noted that it "is aware of the FTC's ongoing review of how manufacturers—in particular mobile phone and car manufacturers—may limit repairs by consumers and repair shops, and how those limitations may increase costs, limit choice, and impact consumers' rights under the Magnuson-Moss Warranty Act." Congress specifically directed the FTC to include recommendations on how to best address these problems...."  Read more  

Hmmmm...  Interesting detail about ensuring competition in the car business. Alain

Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020

H. Posner'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines"  . See slides,  See video

Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain

font-family: Georgia, serif;">4thAnnual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.

Making Driverless Happen – The Road Forward (Updated)

K. Pyle, April 18, ""It's time to hit the start button," is Fred Fishkin's succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times' Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen – Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to "the Trentons of the World."

Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020.  Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,....." Read more

Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken!  Alain

Ken Pyle's Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:

15th Session    Making it Happen - Part One: Elected Officials' Role in Creating a Welcoming Environment in the Trentons of this World

14th Session    What Will Power Safely-driven Cars

13th Session    Improving the Moving of Goods

12th Session    3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility

11th Session    3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation

10th Session    3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance

9th Session    2/25/21  Can Level 3 be Delivered?

8th Session    2/18/21  Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?

Michael Sena's Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides

7th Session    2/11/21  Finally Doing It

6th Session    2/ 4/21   Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain

5th Session    1/28/21 At the Tipping Point

4th Session    1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them

3rd Session    1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today

2nd Session1/ 7/21  A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage

Kornhauser & He, April 2021 "Making it Happen:  A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the "Trentons" of this World"

Orf467F20_FinalReport "Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System" Kornhauser & He, March 2021 "AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative"

C'mon Man!(These folks didn't get/read the memo)

Sunday Supplement

Half-Baked

Click-Bait

Calendar of Upcoming

Events

The 2021 TRB Annual

Automated Road Transportation Symposium

Virtual on July 12-15, 2021

5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit

Fall 2021 Live in Person To be Announced

June 9, 2021, Fully virtual

13.5pt; font-family: Georgia, serif;">

On the More Technical Side

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/

K. Lockean's AV Research Group at U of Texas

and

The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT

R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, "Recordings from the conference:

Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk

Session 2: (Cybersecurity): https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY

Session 3: (Automated Driving Systems): https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc

Session 4: (Communications for ADS) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso

Read more

Hmmmm... Russ, thank you for sharing! Alain

These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211 w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, May 1 , "There's plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense...and what doesn't. Plus #Tesla, #Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. ..."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210 w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron'23

F. Fishkin, April 26 , "Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from

Elon​ Musk's

The Boring Company. Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton's Alain .."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209 w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.

F. Fishkin, April , "The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on.."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208 w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo

F. Fishkin, April 18, "What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo...some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207 w/Selika Josiah Talbott

F. Fishkin, April 10 , "When a driverless vehicle crashes...what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206 w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

F. Fishkin, April 2, "When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles? How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome? Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin..."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205 w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher. President, MLSena Consulting

F. Fishkin, March 26, "Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities. So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more...on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars..."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services

F. Fishkin, March 15, ".With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker's new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table...and a look at the future of auto insurance.."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser

F. Fishkin, March 13, ".GM's move to transform auto insurance through OnStar Insurance: Is it a win, win for all?      Is adaptive cruise control prompting some drivers to speed?     And what does Tesla really mean by "full self driving"? Just some of the questions tackled  in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202, Zoom-Cast Episode 202 President & CEO, RoadDB

F. Fishkin, March 3, "When will we be able to purchase cars that can largely drive themselves? It may not be long...but don't expect to vacate the driver's seat.  That's the view of entrepreneur, tech pioneer and RoadDB CEO Russ Shields.   He takes an in depth look at where we are and where we're headed with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201, Zoom-Cast Episode 201 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Feb. 26, "Smarter cars need smarter assembly...and location matters.   The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at that, politics, climate and carmakers...plus Tesla, Velodyne, Foxconn and more.." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200, Zoom-Cast Episode 200 w/Edwin Olsen, CEO, May Mobility

F. Fishkin, Feb. 22, "How May Mobility is building confidence in autonomous transportation and creating a road map for growth through the pandemic and beyond. CEO and co-founder Edwin Olson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 199, Zoom-Cast Episode 199 w/Marc Scribner, Senior Transportation Policy Analyst, Reason Foundation

F. Fishkin, Feb. 19, "How the Biden administration & Congress can pave the path for autonomous vehicles. Reason Foundation Sr. Transportation Policy Analyst Marc Scribner joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to focus on what's next. Plus jobs and autonomous trucking, Waymo, GM, Ford and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 198, Zoom-Cast Episode 198 w/Dick Mudge, CEO, Compass Transportation & Technology

F. Fishkin, Feb. 13, Which autonomous vehicle companies will be the last standing? And does private ownership of self driving cars make sense? Compass Transportation and Technology President Dick Mudge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Tesla, GM, Toyota and more..." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 197, Zoom-Cast Episode 197 w/Michel Parent, Founding Member of SuburVan

F. Fishkin, Feb. 5, "Smart mobility innovation in France.    Dr. Michel Parent founding member of SuburVan is aiming to provide fully autonomous mobility on the outskirts of Paris and more.    He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Ford, GM, Tesla, VW and more...."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 196, Zoom-Cast Episode 196 w/Steve Polzin, Recently US DoT

F. Fishkin, Jan. 24, "Will more safe vehicle technology dampen the push for driverless mobility? Measuring the progress and challenges ahead with Dr. Steven Polzin..former Sr. Advisor, Office of the Ass't. Secretary for Research and Technology in the DOT. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin ... plus GM going zero emission, Tesla, Waymo and more.."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 195 Zoom-Cast Episode 195 w/Diana Furchtgott-Roth, G. Washington U.

F. Fishkin, Jan. 24, "What progress has been made towards smarter, safer mobility? The push for a back-up to GPS. Why the jump in vehicle fatalities last year? Those issues and more as former deputy assistant U.S. Transportation Secretary for research and technology Diana Furchtgott Roth joins us. Plus...Microsoft, Cruise, Tesla and more on Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 194 Zoom-Cast Episode 194 w/Anuj Pradhan, UMass

F. Fishkin, Jan. 15, ""When it comes to vehicle safety technology...should manufacturers be sharing instead of competing? Should there be standardization? Anuj Pradhan, co-director of the Human Performance Lab at UMASS Amherst joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest from GM, Tesla, Mobileye, Nio and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 193 Zoom-Cast Episode 193 w/Bobby Hambrick, AutonomousStuff

F. Fishkin, Jan. 8, "Bobby Hambrick started AutuonomouStuff in a barn in Morton, Illinois....and has pioneered much of the technology moving the autonomous industry forward, now as part of Hexagon. Bobby joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to look back and look ahead. Plus...Apple, Hyundai, Waymo, Tesla and more! "

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 192 Zoom-Cast Episode 192 w/Danny Shapiro, nVIDIA

F. Fishkin, Dec. 30, "NVIDIA continues on a roll powering the Zoox robo taxi unveiled this month by Amazon. NVIDIA senior director of automotive Danny Shapiro outlines the progress and looks ahead to 2021 in the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. "

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 191  Zoom-Cast Episode 191 w/ Louis Aaron'23 and Joel Johnson

F. Fishkin, Dec. 20, "College student Joel Johnson has been keeping a log of dozens of trips in Waymo's self driving service in Chandler, Arizona, and posting videos on YouTube. Louis Aaron'23, another student, has been working with Elon Musk's Boring Company in Las Vegas. The two share their experiences with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in the latest Smart Driving Cars."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 190  Zoom-Cast Episode 190 w/Chris Urmson, Aurora

F. Fishkin, Dec. 15, "With Aurora taking over Uber's self driving efforts,  what is on the horizon for the start up whose leaders have roots at Waymo,  Tesla and Uber? Co-founder and CEO Chris Urmson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in this special edition of Smart Driving Cars."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 187  Zoom-Cast Episode 187 w/Michael Sena,  The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Nov 25, "What you should know about electric cars, climate change and more.  The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye opening edition of Smart Driving Cars.."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 186  Zoom-Cast Episode 186 w/Kelly Funkhouser, Consumer Report

F. Fishkin, Nov 24, "When it comes to active driver assistance systems, what works and what needs improvement? Some answers from Kelly FunkhouserÃÆ'¢â‚¬Â¦ program manager for vehicle interface, head of connected and automated vehicles at Consumer Reports.  She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 186 of Smart Driving Cars."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 185  Zoom-Cast Episode 185 w/Dan Smith, Waymo F. Fishkin, Nov 20, "Only Waymo has been transporting customers in driverless vehicles without a safety monitor on board. What goes into that kind of decision? Waymo Assistant General Counsel Dan Smith joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in this special edition of Smart Driving Cars." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 184  Zoom-Cast Episode 184 w/Marjory Blumenthal, Rand F. Fishkin, Nov 20, "So when are driverless vehicles safe enough to be deployed? Senior Rand Corporation policy researcher Marjory Blumenthal joins Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to examine her latest report and more."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 183 Zoom-Cast Episode 183 w/Kirsten Korosec F. Fishkin, Nov 13, "Rivian's hands free driver assistance will be standard equipment...while Ford unveils the E-Transit. TechCrunch Senior Transportation reporter and editor Kirsten Korosec joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Nuro, Tesla, Uber, Lyft, Cruise and more. Plus the coming changes for mobility under a new administration!"

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 182 Zoom-Cast Episode 182 F. Fishkin, Nov 6, "What will a new administration mean for autonomous mobility? And what about the passage of Proposition 22 in California after Uber's big campaign? That plus luxury EVs coming from Bentley....and cheap EVs from China. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 181 Zoom-Cast Episode 181  w/Sheldon Sandler & Glenn Mercer F. Fishkin, Oct. 30, "Waymo releases self driving data...while traditional car dealers enjoy surprisingly strong profits during the pandemic. Why?  What about the coming autonomous mobility? Bell Air Partners' Sheldon Sandler and researcher-consultant Glenn Mercer explain in Episode 181 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.  "

SmartDrivingCars  Pod-Cast Episode 180  Zoom-Cast Episode 180 w/John Rich, Ford/Argo, part 2 F. Fishkin, Oct. 15, "Ford and Argo AI have unveiled their next generation self-driving test vehicle. Once again, Ford's Director of Autonomous Vehicle and Technology Development John Rich joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to unveil the technology and the company's self driving business plans." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 179 Zoom-Cast Episode 179 w/John Rich, Ford/Argo F. Fishkin, Oct. 15, "Which autonomous vehicle platforms will survive? The director of Ford's Autonomous Vehicle and Technology Development says there may only be two...and Ford /Argo AI will be one of them. John Rich joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more." SmartDrivingCars  Pod-Cast Episode 178  Zoom-Cast Episode 178 w/Andrew Hawkins, Verge F. Fishkin, Oct. 9, "Here we go! Waymo going fully driverless in Phoenix suburb service. The Verge senior transportation reporter Andrew Hawkins joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla... Amazon... Rivian and more. Subscribe!

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 177    Zoom-Cast Episode 177

F. Fishkin, Oct. 2, "New grades for assisted driving systems from Euro NCAP. But Princeton Professor Alain Kornhauser says the devil is in the details in this edition with co-host Fred Fishkin. And there's Amazon's success against Covid plusTesla, Uber, GM, Nikola and more. SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 176  Zoom-Cast Episode 176 w/Marc Scribner

F. Fishkin, Sept. 25, "A new government entity to oversee autonomous vehicles? Marc Scribner, Sr. Transportation Policy Analyst at the Reason Foundation on regulation and more with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Tesla, Nikola, GM and the California move to ban new gasoline vehicles."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 175   Zoom-Cast Episode 175 w/Michael Sena F. Fishkin, Sept. 18, "Automobility and the future of car dealers... "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena offers a different take on how car dealers may battle automakers pushing for direct to consumer subscriptions. That and more in this edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 174 Zoom-Cast Episode 174 w/Kelly Funkhouser, Consumer Reports

F. Fishkin, Sept. 4, "Moving forward with autonomous vehicle testing, the head of safety at Uber's Advanced Technology Group is pledging safety data transparency. Nat Beuse joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for that and more on the latest mobility headlines." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 173 Zoom-Cast Episode 173  w/Nathanial Beuse F. Fishkin, Sept. 4, "Moving forward with autonomous vehicle testing, the head of safety at Uber's Advanced Technology Group is pledging safety data transparency. Nat Beuse joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for that and more on the latest mobility headlines." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 172Zoom-Cast Episode 172  Special Edition w/Danny Shapiro

F. Fishkin ,Sept. 2, "Mercedes unveils the latest S Class with more computing power than 60 average cars...with NVIDIA playing a big role. NVIDIA's Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more." SmartDrivingCars  Pod-Cast Episode 171Zoom-Cast Episode 171 w/Henry Greenidge

SmartDrivingCars  PodCast 170  ZoomCast Episode170  w/Michael Sena SmartDrivingCars  PodCast Episode 169 ZoomCast Episode 169  w/Anthony Townsend SmartDrivingCars  PodCast Episode 168 ZoomCast Episode 168  w/Olaf Sakkers SmartDrivingCars  PodCast 167  ZoomCast Episode167  w/Robin Chase, Carlos Pardo & Daniel Sperling SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 166ZoomCast Episode 166 w/Jay Rodgers'95, CEO Local Motors

F. Fishkin, July 20, "Is Driverless home delivery the fastest route to Affordable Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged? ... "

• Zoom-inar Video (Video replay) AmaZooks

• PodCast (Audio Only)   AmaZooks

SmartDrivingCars PodCast Episode 165,ZoomCast Episode165 w/Michael Sena

F. Fishkin 16, "Is the option to buy a car at a dealership going to vanish? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena has a provocative perspective in this edition with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..an update on the Amazon Zoox deal, autonomous vehicles and how they can help battle discrimination in transportation, TuSimple, Mobileye, Uber, Tesla and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast 164 Episode 164,   Zoom-Cast Episode 163 w/Robbie Diamond

F. Fishkin, July 9, "Fostering economic opportunity through autonomous technology is the focus of an upcoming report from Security America's Future Energy. Founder and CEO Robbie Diamond shares details and more in this edition with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus ..are armed police officers really needed for traffic enforcement? And the latest from Tesla, Waymo and more.  ..." SmartDrivingCars  Pod-Cast Episode 163, Zoom-Cast Episode 163  w/Henry Greenidge F. Fishkin, July 2, "Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. ."

SmartDrivingCars  Pod-Cast Episode 162,  Zoom-Cast Episode 162  w/Cliff Winston

F. Fishkin, June 25, "From the Brookings Institution, Cliff Winston, co-author of Autonomous Vehicles...The Road to Economic Growth? joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..why are fatal crash rates rising in the midst of a pandemic...plus NVIDIA, Didi, Tesla and more."

Episode 004  Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?

F. Fishkin, June 23, "But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about ..."

• Zoom-inar (Video replay)  Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?

• PodCast (Audio Only) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?

Listen/Watch more  

Hmmm... We only scratched the surface. Alain SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 161,Zoom-Cast Episode 161   w/Alberto Stochino F. Fishkin, June 17, "Is less data sometimes more when it comes to driverless vehicle technology? Perceptive Founder and CEO Alberto Stochino joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the DOT's new plan for sharing autonomous safety information, the latest from Tesla, EVs from China and more."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 160, Zoom-Cast Episode 160  w/Jessica Cicchino F. Fishkin, June 12, "Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Research VP Jessica Cicchino co-authored a new study saying self driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes.   She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to discuss the study.  Plus the latest on Tesla, Ford & VW, Covid-19 and more.  "

SmartDrivingCars  Pod-Cast Episode 159,  Zoom-Cast Episode 159  w/Kara Kockelman F. Fishkin, June 4, "Prof. Kara Kockelman's focus on smart transportation to save lives, money and the environment has made her a sought after global expert.  The U. of Texas Transportation Engineering Professor joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on the impact of Covid-19 and much more. Plus Tesla, Uber, Argo AI and the top smart driving headlines. For more on Dr. Kockelman's work....please visit...  http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman."

DrivingTheDebate Episode 003  Everyone's for Connectivity; but... F. Fishkin, June 2, "But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about ..."

• Zoom-inar (Video replay)  Everyone's for Connectivity; but...

• PodCast (Audio Only) Everyone's for Connectivity; but...

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 158,  Zoom-Cast Episode 158  w/Chunka Mui

F. Fishkin, May 28, "In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, what are the smartest ways to re-build and plan for the future? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Amazon, Zoox, Intel Mobileye, Tesla, Uber and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 157,  Zoom-Cast Episode 157 w/Grayson Brulte

F. Fishkin, May 21, "Global auto makers must completely re-think their autonomous mobility strategy as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. So says innovation strategist Grayson Brulte of Brulte & Company....who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Waymo, Tesla, Uber and more."

DrivingTheDebate Episode 002  The Future of Public Roadway Transit F. Fishkin, May 14, "Will the Bus be Thrown Under the Bus?...

• Zoom-inar Video (Video replay)Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit

• PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit

SmartDrivingCars  Pod-Cast Episode 156,  Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 156  w/Danny Shapiro2 F. Fishkin, May 14, "With new hardware and software capabilities NVIDIA is expanding into new areas of driver assistance technology. Sr. Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Waymo, Voyage, Ford and more. listen and subscribe!"

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 155,Zoom-Cast Episode 155  w/Alex Roy2 F. Fishkin, April 29, "The continuing impact of Covid-19 on autonomous vehicle progress. But it may not be all bad news. Alex Roy...host of the No Parking Podcast and Director of Special Operations at Argo AI joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Intel, Lyft, Uber and more. Listen and subscribe!

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 154, Zoom-Cast Episode 154   w/Dan Sperling F. Fishkin, April 29, "Can ride sharing rebound after the pandemic? Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo, Ford and more."

DrivingTheDebate Episode 001 The Driverless "New Normal" Debate F. Fishkin, April 27,

• Zoom Video

• SmartDrivingCar PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Driverless New Normal Debate

• Zoom Audience Questions (Only a few were addressed in Zoom-inar)

• Zoom Audience Comments

• YouTube Video

SmartDrivingCars  Pod-Cast Episode 153, Zoom-Cast Episode 153   w/Dick Mudge2

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 152,Zoom-Cast Episode 152  w/Brad Templeton

SmartDrivingCars Podcast Episode 148 w/Richard Bishop

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 148 w/Richard Bishop

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O'Toole

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit Leilei Shinohara & Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena'69

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy

Recent Highlights of:

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May 1, 2021

May 2021 Issue: To Ban or Not to Ban: Should That Be the Question? M. Sena, May 1, " They banned spray cans with chloro-fluorocarbons, didn't they? Why not ICE?

TAKING THE PLEDGE to stop selling cars with internalcombustion engines (ICE). That's what cities and states and provinces and countries are doing all around the world. It's become a competition: Who will ban them

sooner and who are the most credible in making their bans stick? Gas stations and car repair workshops like Pee Wee's Texaco Service Center pictured left are already relics of a bygone era. How long will it take for gas pumps to disappear?..." Read more  

Hmmmm... Another great issue discussed in Pod/Zoom-Cast Episodes 211 below.  As well as two excellent articles on V2X and the continuing discussions about spectrum allocation, DSRC and Cellular V2x. Read these two sections thoroughly and carefully. Alain

April 23, 2021   Scrutiny of Tesla crash a sign that regulation may be coming T. Krisher, Feb 19, "The fiery crash of a Tesla near Houston with no one behind the wheel is drawing scrutiny from two federal agencies that could bring new regulation of electronic systems that take on some driving tasks.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the National Transportation Safety board said Monday they would send teams to investigate the Saturday night crash on a residential road that killed two men in a Tesla Model S.

Local authorities said one man was found in the passenger seat, while another was in the back. They're issuing search warrants in the probe, which will determine whether the Tesla's Autopilot partially automated system was in use. Autopilot can keep a car centered in its lane, keep a distance from cars in front of it, and can even change lanes automatically in some circumstances.

On Twitter Monday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote that data logs "recovered so far" show Autopilot wasn't turned on, and "Full Self-Driving" was not purchased for the vehicle. He didn't answer reporters' questions posed on Twitter...." Read more  

Hmmmm...  I'll stand by my quote... "..."Elon's been totally irresponsible," said Alain Kornhauser, faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering at Princeton University. Musk, he said, has sold the dream that the cars can drive themselves even though in the fine print Tesla says they're not ready. "It's not a game. This is serious stuff."..." ... even though it isn't the most critical comment.

What is more concerning.... "Why didn't Tesla's Automated Emergency Braking System prevent the Tesla from hitting the tree?"   The common theme in the Joshua Brown, Elaine Herzberg,  Walter Huang,  Firetruck/Derrick Monet, 2nd_Firetruck_Tesla crash ..., Teslas seem to disregard stationary objects directly ahead, or certainly doesn't avoid hitting them enough of the time.   The Tesla code must assume that it can pass underneath them. Can such an egregious oversight in Tesla's AEB computer code really exist? Is the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) involved in this oversight because it has made Tesla and maybe others so adverse to false positives that they simply assume that Teslas can pass under any and all stationary objects in the road ahead? Not a pretty situation. Alain

Making Driverless Happen – The Road Forward (Updated)

K. Pyle, April 18, ""It's time to hit the start button," is Fred Fishkin's succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times' Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen – Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to "the Trentons of the World."

Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020.  Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,

"We want the value [of safe driving and driverless] to be captured by society."....." Read more

Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken!  Alain

April 17, 2021

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UB, partners receive $8.2 million to help vulnerable populations with transportation issues P. Murphy, Feb 18, "University at Buffalo researchers are part of an $8.2 million effort to improve transportation options for vulnerable people in the City of Buffalo.

The project, called "Complete Trip Deployment," is led by Virginia-based ICF International and funded by an $8.2 million U.S. Department of Transportation grant.

The project brings together researchers from the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) and the School of Architecture and Planning (SAP), who will serve as technical leaders.

Local partners include the Niagara Frontier Transportation Authority, Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus, Inc., Niagara International Transportation Technology Coalition, New York State Department of Transportation, and the City of Buffalo.

The project focuses on addressing the transportation needs of three distinct populations: people with mobility, visual and hearing disabilities, people living in low-income neighborhoods and older adults."  Read more  

Hmmmm...  Absolutely the right focus and absolutely necessary. Alain

April 2, 2021

Waymo Chief John Krafcik Resigns, Co-CEOs Tapped To Run Alphabet's Self-Driving Tech Giant A. Ohnsman, April 2, "John Krafcik, the auto industry veteran who's run Waymo for over five years, is stepping down as CEO of the Alphabet Inc. self-driving tech giant and is being replaced by two high-ranking company executives.

...Takedra Mawakana, Waymo's chief operating officer, and Dmitri Dolgov, its long-time CTO, are both being promoted to co-CEOs, the company said. Krafcik will continue to work with Waymo as an advisor.

"After 5 exhilarating years leading this team, I've decided to depart from my CEO role at Waymo & kick-off new adventures," he said on Twitter. "To start, I'm looking forward to a refresh period, reconnecting with old friends & family, and discovering new parts of the world."..."  Read more  

Hmmmm...  John, thank you for a fantastic 5 years and for keeping Waymo focused on bringing high-quality, affordable mobility to all.  Doing good for many isn't easy. Enjoy and thank you!! Alain March 26, 2021   Labor to DOT: Scrap Trump administration's automated vehicles plan J. Gallagher, March 24, "Two prominent labor unions want the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) to reject the Trump administration's automated vehicle (AV) strategy for relying too much on the viewpoint from industry without enough attention paid to potential damage to worker safety and jobs.

The 38-page Automated Vehicles Comprehensive Plan (AVCP), one of the last documents released for public comment by DOT under Secretary Elaine Chao before she left the administration in January, laid out the previous administration's vision for integrating AVs – both cars and heavy trucks – into the U.S. transportation system.

The plan received 23 comments before the comment period closed on Tuesday, with trucking technology companies generally supporting the strategy and labor rejecting it.

"This document doubles down on the previous administration's irresponsible, hands-off approach to AV deployment and regulation and mostly boosts the agency's role as cheerleader and enabler rather than safety regulator," wrote John Samuelsen, international president of the Transport Workers Union of America (TWU), which represents transit workers...." Read more

Hmmmm...  One might suggest that TWU's position is enormously short sighted. Transit pre_Covid served 1% of the person-miles in the US. That is a niche of a niche.  During Covid, almost anyone who could affords a car and didn't have one, bought one. Transit ridership took an enormous hit. Even with enormous subsidy, Transit, especially bus transit, is hardly ever the "mode of choice" for anyone because its level-of-service is fundamentally poor. It serves relatively few locations, loosely connected by a route which delivers service only at infrequent fixed times. Essentially no other consumer commodity today operates with so little regard to its customer's real-time needs and desires.  Even network television has adapted to become demand-responsive as opposed to take-it-or-leave-it.

Conventional transit is labor intensive because it needs a chauffeur for each vehicle and that chauffeur deserves nice working conditions and a living wage. Unfortunately, the service that a chauffeur can deliver can't attract enough customers to make that service a going concern. However, an automated driver can arguably deliver demand-responsive service while having the total cost of its working conditions and level-of-effort be substantially less than a TWU driver.  This might let a Transit entity to actually develop a going concern that would serve 10x or more person-miles and create better paying and better working conditions for all TWU members.

More importantly, there is no downside for the TWU with these automated drivers.  If they aren't substantially better than a TWU driver, they won't be adopted by any Transit operator.  If they are, they'll so improve the level-of-service that ridership will boom and there will be better jobs for all TWU members and more.  There is no downside here. All of this is in the TWU's best interests. Alain March 19, 2021

Tesla's "Full Self Driving" Beta Is Just Laughably Bad and Potentially Dangerous M. Hogan, March 19, "A beta version of Tesla's "Full Self Driving" Autopilot update has begun rolling out to certain users. And man, if you thought "Full Self Driving" was even close to a reality, this video of the system in action will certainly relieve you of that notion. It is perhaps the best comprehensive video at illustrating just how morally dubious, technologically limited, and potentially dangerous Autopilot's "Full Self Driving" beta program is...." Read more

Hmmmm... The Videois MUST watch.  This is what I would call a "Semi-SelfDriving Alpha" product in this Operational Design Domain (non-dense city/commercial suburban streets, during daylight, in clear weather with moderate temperature conditions).

Drivers have four (4) "responsibilities". 1. Feet/foot on/near the pedals, 2. Hand(s) on the wheel, 3. Eyes on the road, and 4. Butt in the driver's seat (and possibly 5.... Have reasonable cognitive brain functions). If the Operational Design Domain is a straight lane with a slight downgrade and nothing else around, my "55 Chevy" can "Self-drive" and even be "Driverless". I don't even have to be in it.  However, we must all agree, that we can't call my "55 Chevy" a "Driverless" car. We can't even call it a Self-driving because I'm going to need to have my butt is the driver's seat to do something when the ODD changes (the road turns , ...) and it is, at best, Semi-Self driving because my eyes will need to be on the road for me to realize that the "55 Chevy" is about to exit its ODD. It is going to need help from me to not crash.

So Elon's FSD is definitely Semi-SelfDriving because its ODD doesn't come close to including many of the situations that it found in its video journey above.  It is Alpha because any potential user can be expected to have little if any idea what is required to use this product without getting hurt. So,  please be very careful out there and don't stop paying attention to the road ahead!!! Alain

Saturday, March 13, 2021

General Motors Aims to Transform Auto Insurance Industry with OnStar Insurance

Press Release, March 11, "GM announced it will take its relentless focus on safety and delivering a world-class customer experience one step further with OnStar Insurance. ...  OnStar Insurance Services intends to leverage its unique understanding of the vehicles GM produces to offer..." Read more

Hmmmm.... See Kornhauser's Automated Driving of Road Vehicles 101: Why, What, Where, When.  Also:

Given that:

1.  ">90%" crashes involve driver misbehavior;

2.  OEMs are including more SmartDriving technology in cars.  That technology comes in two part: a.  SafelyDriven technology which "works" essentially everywhere, all the time to avert crashes by mitigating driver misbehavior, see #1 above..

i. Examples: anti-lock brakes, electronic stability control, automated emergency braking, blind spot warning, ...) ii. Liability/Insurance implications: the better these work the lower the expected liability, the lower the expected LOSS and the happier the company that insures their owners. 😁! iii. OnStar/GM Insurance Advantage: They know earlier and better how well these systems can be expected to work. They designed and tested the systems before they put them in the showroom and have "the data" to compute better expected liabilities by driver characteristics and thus be better able to craft and price an insurance product for each purchaser of a GM vehicle. Simply, they will be better able to "know when to hold 'em .. know when to fold 'em ... they can better know what's comin'".

b.  SelfDriving technology which works only some of the time and some of the places  (Don't worry, as soon as they work all of the time and all of the places it will be a very big deal and you'll know it, but don't hold your breath.)

Nor do any of them perform better than an average driver that is not misbehaving. Again, don't hold your breath. Consequently these systems are Comfort & Convenience features that, at best, should not degrade safety.  To not degrade safety, these systems must work properly when engaged by the driver and the driver must not engage them when and where these systems aren't going to work properly. (... Drivers must not misbehave in the use of these systems (... Use these systems outside their certified Operational Design Domain, ODD)).

i. Examples: Cruise Conroe (Feet-off , but required the driver to steer (Hands-on), be aware and alert (Eyes-on) and be seated in the driver's seat (Butt-in), and available only in a certain speed range, lane-grade range, doesn't respond to traffic signals, doesn't work if there is a stationary object in the lane ahead, ...); Automated lane keeping ({Feet-on, Hands-off, Eyes-on, Butt-in}, but only if proper lane markings exist); Automated parking ({Feet-off, Hands-off, Eyes-on, Butt-out} all starting from speed zero in an area that is recognized by the systems as a parking opportunity); StupidSummon ({Feet-off, Hands-off, Eyes-on, Butt-out}, but only available within the driver's own property), "Level3" ({Feet-off, Hands-off, Eyes-off, Butt-in}, but only on some certified in real time road segments.)

ii. Liability/Insurance implications: To date these systems have been sold on a "buyer beware" basis in that all liability implications of their use fell on the shoulders of the driver and their insurer. Consequently, misuse of these systems was the driver's/insurer's "problem". Unfortunately, misuse of these systems and the resulting degradation of safety can be expected to cause regulators to insist that future versions of these SelfDriving technologies must include monitoring systems that preclude them from being available, let alone be used, outside of their real-time Operational Design Domain(ODD) for which their functionality has been "certified by the OEM" to not degrade safety.  This "floor" for safety can be expected to be that experienced by an average non-misbehaving driver in similar driving situations.

This implies that if a crash happens during the use of one of these systems, it is 1. one of these "rare" events in which the driver was not misbehaving. The insurer is dragged in and may well be liable (This is what insurance is supposed to be all about), or 2. the system failed in its automated driving function.  The OEM is dragged in and may well be liable  from a product liability standpoint or 3. the driver was mis-behaving in the use of the system. This means that the system failed in precluding the system's use.  The OEM is dragged in and may well be liable from a product liability standpoint.

3. Implications on Insurer: Let: $Aij be the distribution of expected expenses of "being dragged in and possibly having to pay damages" if driver i of GM car with features j gets involved in a "Rare events" crash, or crashes, over the duration of the insurance policy.

(This expense distribution is largely a function of the kinds of driving driver i is going to do.  Its estimation is independent of any proprietary product information held by GM. OnStarInsurance is not advantaged.)

$Bij be the distribution of expected expenses of "being dragged in" if driver i of GM car with features j gets involved in a crash, or crashes, resulting from the failure of features j to avoid the crash when driver i was misbehaving.

(This expense distribution would arise from situations in which GM's SafelyDriven technology didn't perform perfectly. Given all of the testing that GM conducts on each of its technologies prior to their placement for sale in showroom, having access to those testing data allows OnStarInsurance to more accurately estimate this distribution.

OnStarInsurance is substantially advantaged.)

$Cij be the distribution of expected expenses of "being dragged in" if driver i of GM car with features j gets involved in a crash when the System was engaged  and the incident occurred outside the System's certified ODD.

(This expense distribution would arise from situations in which GM's automated Comfort&Convenience features either didn't perform as well as a well-behaving driver inside the feature's certified ODD, or driver i was able to mis-use the system by engaging it outside its ODD.  Again, given all of the testing that GM conducts on each of its technologies prior to their placement for sale in showrooms, having access to those testing data also allows one to more accurately estimate this distribution.

OnStarInsurance is substantially advantaged.)

In pricing insurance, the insurer must estimate the distribution of expected expenses associated with the crashes driver i can be expected to have in car with features j over the life of the policy and price that insurance product accordingly.

For an outside insurer, call them WB: the expenses expected to be incurred over the life of the policy to insure Driver i in the purchase of a GM car with features j = $WBij = {$Aij}wb + {$Bij}wb + {$Cij}wb

For GM: the expenses expected to be incurred over the life of the policy to insure Driver i in the purchase of a GM car with features j = $GMij = {$Bij}gm + {$Cij}gm (They get dragged in to all of the "non-rare" crashes because of product liability responsibility

For OnStar Insurance: the expenses expected to be incurred over the life of the policy to insure Driver i in the purchase of a GM car with features j = $OSij = {$Aij}os (Since GM is already dragged in, no need for OnStarInsurance to also be drawn in to defend themselves.).

Consequently, OnStar has a fundamental pricing advantage because $OSij << $WBij.  Plus OnStar/GM can better estimate the $Bij and $Cij distributions. Thus OnStar "knows when to hold 'em.." in the insurance pricing game.

Finally, it is very much in GM's interest to get its SafelyDriven technologies as perfect as possible so as to minimize {$Bij}gm on every vehicle GM sells and to forbid, as best as possible, the mis-use/availability of it SelfDriving Comfort&Convenience features outside their ODD to minimize {$Cij}gm on every vehicle GM sells.

The above is an extraordinarily strong financial incentive for GM to make its SafelyDriven and Comfort&Convenience automated driving technologies as good as possible and, if they are going to do that, GM might as well also be in the insurance business.  Alain

Automated Driving Technologies:  Driving Change in Insurance

K. Pyle, March 5, "It is in the insurance industry's best interest to use automated driving technology to make things safer through crash avoidance, not just crash mitigation. Unlike crash mitigation, crash avoidance saves the insurance company money. This was Alain Kornhauserâ's premise for the Smart Driving Car Summit, Incentivizing Through Insurance. The trillion-dollar question is whether the incentives to automate will overcome the countervailing forces of existing business practices in other parts of the mobility industry?...." Read more

Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken.  Alain

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March 2021 Issue M. Sena, Feb 23, " ... There is no way to test a car virtually...

OEMs are still learning that that today's cars are not your father's Oldsmobile.

Vehicle connectivity is not something that is tacked onto a car, like a battery-operated portable TOMTOM or GARMIN (or CoPilot...Michael, How could you forget?...!)...navigation system....

Driving Neat: Can U.S. Take Its Cars Without ICE?..."  Read more

Hmmmm... Plus much much more. Enjoy!!! Alain 2021 COMMENTARY: How the Biden Administration and Congress Can Pave the Path for Automated Vehicles M. Scribner, Feb. 11, "Automated vehicle technology is coming; it's advancing very quickly," said now-confirmed Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg during his confirmation hearing. “It is something that holds the potential to be transformative and I think in many ways policy has not kept up.”

Secretary Buttigieg is absolutely correct. The U.S. Department of Transportation, specifically the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration division, has a number of tools at its disposal that can be used to modernize the federal regulatory environment to help speed the deployment of automated vehicle technologies that can greatly enhance safety, mobility, and access for all Americans. There is also an important role for Congress, especially at this early stage of automated vehicle development.

To support reform efforts within the executive and legislative branches, my new Reason Foundation policy brief, Challenges and Opportunities for Federal Automated Vehicle Policy, lays out several steps policymakers can take to adapt the automotive regulatory apparatus to automated driving system technologies. The brief is broken into three main sections: defining automated vehicles, a survey of current federal automated vehicle policy development activities, and recommendations for federal policymakers.

The reform recommendations for legislators and regulators are categorized under four themes: ..." Read more

Hmmmm... Read especially: "CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FEDERAL AUTOMATED VEHICLE POLICY".  Included is an extensive discussion on the SAE Levels where Marc states: "...most legacy automakers and new automated driving developers are planning to avoid SAE Level 3 altogether.." and  "Given the wide diversity of road network operating conditions, achieving SAE Level 5 poses significant challenges...." That leaves just two very different classes of AVs ... Safely-driven AVs, encompasing SAE Levels 1 & 2, that assist and support human drivers while requiring that a human driver ensures that the vehicle will be driven safely... and Driverless AVs, SAE Level 4, where the responsibility that the vehicle will be driven safely is entirely borne by the driving technology. Those are the only two kinds.  Policy should focus on only those two and get those right. They are they only real opportunities for this technology ... one to help human drivers drive more safely and the other is to drive safely without any help or involvement by anyone riding long with the vehicle. Thus, the first order of business for Federal Policy is to simplify the process by concentrating on those two very diffent kinds of AVs and get those right.  Alain 2021

Biden inherits big traffic safety mess

R. Mitchell, Feb. 4, "... "  Read more

Hmmmm... If the driver/owner is expected to be prepared to intervene to maintain safety, then it is NOT full anything, period. Moreover, if the owner/driver is NOT prepared, nor permitted to intervene to maintain safety, then the fleet operator is required to accept the responsibility and "make whole" any and all liabilities arising from any  and all "at fault" crashes. Until Elon is willing to step up and take on that responsibility/liability or sell his cars exclusively to operating entities that assume that responsibility his Teslas are NOT full anything, period! Alain 2021

Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System G. Laniewki, Jan 26. ":..."  Read more

Hmmmm... Very nice Nation-wide investigation by my students this past Fall. Alain

2021

G.M. Will Sell Only Zero-Emission Vehicles by 2035

N. Boudette, Jan. 28, "The days of the internal combustion engine are numbered.

General Motors said Thursday that it would phase out petroleum-powered cars and trucks and sell only vehicles that have zero tailpipe emissions by 2035, a seismic shift by one of the world's largest automakers that makes billions of dollars today from gas-guzzling pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles.

.."  Read more

Hmmmm...   Great! (maybe???):   Good News: Zero emission vehicles; Bad News: From where cometh the marginal electricity that enables that Zero-Emission Vehicle to move and what carries that electricity to the point on the road where that electricity is used to power that Zero-Emission Vehicle? Until we have a "Zero Emission Battery" and all electricity is created using Zero Emission, GM cannot produce, nor sell, Zero Emission Vehicles that actually move (other than downhill a la Nikola).  So please tout the whole story!! (Will these EVs be less polluting than an ICE that GM could build and sell "by 2035"? is the real question.  The answer depends on where we will be with electricity production and distribution, the efficiency and makeup of batteries and the improvement of ICEs. (I didn't mean to imply that it was a simple question, but the NY Times should be more than click-bait.). Alain

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U Mich's Robert Hampshire joins Biden administration to work in transportation research and technology

J. Karoub, Jan. 21, "Robert Hampshire, associate professor at the University of Michiga's Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy whose research and policy engagement focuses on understanding the societal, climate and equity implications of autonomous and connected vehicles and other innovative mobility services, has joined the Biden administration to work in the U.S. Transportation ..  Read more

Hmmmm...  What a fantastic appointment. Congratulations Robert!  Alain 2021

AUTOMATED VEHICLES:  Comprehensive Plan E. Chao, Jan. 2021, "The Automated Vehicles Comprehensive Plan (Comprehensive Plan) describes how the United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) is supporting the safe integration of Automated Driving Systems (ADS)2 into the surface transportation system. It explains Departmental goals related to ADS, identifies actions being taken to meet those goals, and provides real-world examples of how these Departmental actions relate to emerging ADS applications... "  Read more

Hmmmm...  I guess this is a good plan. Of course, Safety is #1, as it should be. DoT's #1 public responsibility is Safety. Whether Cyber Security and Privacy are # 2 and 3  and ahead of Enhanced Mobility and Accessibility is certainly debatable. And if the Enhanced Mobility and Accessibility of the "mobility disadvantaged that have been left behind by our current favored transport system"  were to be a category, then that one should be right behind Safety at #2 if not ahead of Safety and a solid #1. The rest. as they should, are appropriately details.  What is most disconcerting about the report are the images. To me, those images depict the current "haves", not "have-nots" and thus don't really address the mobility needs and desires of those whose quality-of-life could be most enhanced by automation technology. These images seem to focus the Plan on giving those that already have pretty good ways to get around, yet another way to get around, where, when you finally get right down to it, may at best be only slightly better than what they already have. This Comprehensive Plan should first be focused on providing high-quality affordable mobility to those whose quality-of-life could be most improved by such new technologies and subsequently serve those that already enjoy and can afford other high-quality forms of mobility.

Also, Elaine, thank you for a really good 4 years.  You (and USDoT) were really the star of what was otherwise a most embarrassing Presidency. Also, thanks to Diana Furchtgott-Roth and many others in US DoT.  Alain

January 08, 2021

Automatic braking is now on most new cars. But not GM or Fiat Chrysler vehicles C. Isidore, Dec 17, "Automatic braking, once a feature available exclusively to high-end cars, is becoming common across the industry, according to analysis from Consumer Reports and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.

.. "  Read more

Hmmmm... Set up for the 3rd session of the SDC Summit. Alain

December 11, 2020

Uber, After Years of Trying, Is Handing Off Its Self-Driving Car Project

Nikola Teaches GM a Lesson S. Wilmot, Nov 30, "Nikola Corp. NKLA 0.76% isn't turning out to be the next Tesla that investors and    were hoping for. ..."  Read more

Hmmmm... Lessons for many in this endeavor.  See alsoAndrew Hawkin's take as well as David Morris'.  Alain

The Vehicle Fuel Debate Has Been Hijacked

M. Sena, Nov. 19, "The lead article this month was inspired by a diagram I received showing how much of the energy that we generate to heat our homes, light up our rooms, make the concrete and steel to build our infrastructure and power our transportation is wasted. It's over two-thirds. Wasted! Half of it is from producing electricity.

..."  Read more

Hmmmm... What can I say?? Another great edition of the Dispatcher. Be sure to read all the way through including  "Musings of a Dispatcher: Cars are from Mars".  Enjoy and listen/watch the following Pod/Zoom-casts. Alain

Waymo's Safety Methodologies and Safety Readiness Determinations N, Webb, Oct. 30, "As the world's most experienced developer of automated driving systems, Waymo has extensive experience in developing and applying state-of-the-art safety methodologies. Waymo's methodologies help implement Waymo's forward-looking safety philosophy: Waymo will reduce traffic injuries and fatalities by driving safely and responsibly, and will carefully manage risk as we scale our operations. Waymo's safety methodologies, which draw on well established engineering processes and address new safety challenges specific to Automated Vehicle technology, provide a firm foundation for safe deployment of our Level 4 ADS, which we also refer to as the Waymo Driver. Waymo's determination of its readiness to deploy its AVs safely in different settings rests on that firm foundation and on a thorough analysis of risks specific to a particular Operational Design Domain )...."  Read more 

Hmmmm... The process. Must read! Alain

Waymo Public Road Safety Performance Data M. Schwall, Oct. 30, "Waymo's mission to reduce traffic injuries and fatalities and improve mobility for all has led us to expand deployment of automated vehicles (AVs) on public roads without a human driver behind the wheel.  As part of this process, Waymo is committed to providing the public with informative and relevant data regarding the demonstrated safety of Waymo's automated driving system (ADS), which we call the Waymo Driver...." Read more 

Hmmmm... The substance. Must read! ...

I had the priveledge of reviewing Waymo's most recent Safety Reports 1 , 2 (above)

In the past, safety reports by the AV community have largely been a response to NHTSA'¢s Voluntary Safety Self-Assessments and have, in my opinion, been largely public relations documents. While generally descriptive about the testing processes they contain very little, if any, substantive information about their safety related experience to-date focused exclusively on driverless operation.

Safe driverless operation is absolutely necessary for AVs to evolve from extremely expensive chauffeured rides to affordable mobility available to essentially anyone throughout an Operational Design Domain (ODD). Affordability requires that the mobility be delivered without a driver or attendant on-board the vehicle.  Only passengers.

The decision to remove the driver/attendant rests in part on the shoulders of public safety regulators who need to allow such operation, but more importantly, on the shoulders of the real decision makers at the AV company. In the end, it is those AV company decision makers who will be held fully responsible for any lapse in the safety of the driverless operation. These decision makers are inside the AV companies and are, of course, privy to all the details and substance about their own safety related driverless operation, which, in the past, has not been shared in their Voluntary Safety Self-assessments.

My impression is that these just released Waymo Safety Reports contain the substantive information that clearly depicts Waymo's safety-related driverless operational experience. To me, they read like internal documents meant to guide and inform internal decision makers to objectively decide if a sufficiently safe operational experience has been achieved in order to vote to fully accept the safety responsibility of driverless operation in their Operational Design Domain.

Given the information that is contained in these documents, it does not surprise me that Waymo decision makers have decided to proceed with driverless operation in the Phoenix Operational Design Domain. Had I had the responsibility of being one of the decision makers reviewing these documents, I would have also voted yes.

Alain

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Waymo starts to open driverless ride-hailing service to the public

K. Korosec, Oct. 8, "Waymo, the Google self-driving-project-turned-Alphabet unit, is beginning to open up its driverless ride-hailing service to the public.

..."  Read more  

Hmmmm...  "...fully Driverless...". That means that Krafcik, the Waymo "Board", Alphabet's Board and all the lawyers have signed off and said... We are safe enough to basically bet the ranch that the expected value of the mobility that we'll be putting out on the streets of our Operational Design Domain, which is under our control, is worth whatever expected risk still exists that some bad things may happen.  That is an enormous hurdle that has been achieved by an entity that has an enormous ranch.  CONGRATULATIONS!!! It hasn't come easy, nor has it come without intese diligence and effort. CONGRATULATIONS!!! Alain rgb(51, 51,

ASSISTED DRIVING GRADINGS Staff, Oct. 2020  "On this page you will find the gradings of cars tested by Euro NCAP on automated driving technologies.

September 25, 2020

Proposal for a new UN Regulation on uniform provisions concerning the approval of vehicles with regards to Automated Lane Keeping System

rgb(51, 51, Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving Capability' Falls Short of Its Name

rgb(51, 51, 255);">Saturday, The Biggest Self-Driving Truck Startup Stumbles in Hitting High Goals rgb(51, 51, 255);">Thursday, Car OEMs Driving Toward Relevance or Perdition

rgb(51, 51, 255);">Thursday, Fostering Economic Opportunity through Autonomous Vehicle Technology rgb(51, 51, 255);">Thursday,

Announcing 2020-2021 Fellow-in-Residence Henry L. Greenidge, Esq. rgb(51, 51, 255);">Thursday,

Luminaries Battle In Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate About The Future Of Self-Driving Cars rgb(51, 51, 255);">Friday,

What Negative Oil Prices Mean and How the Impact Could Last rgb(51, 51, 255);">Friday,

Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead?

rgb(51, 51, 255);">Friday, January 31, 2020

2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about 'Smaht Pahk'

rgb(51, 51, 255);">Sunday, January 12,

Hmmmm... Reflections

A. Kornhauser, Jan 12,    

Hmmmm...   Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard.  It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain

rgb(51, 51, 255);">Monday, January 6, 2020

A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6,    

Hmmmm...   I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers.  They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor.  I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain

rgb(51, 51, 255);">Saturday, November 23, 2019 Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida rgb(51, 51, 255);">

rgb(51, 51, 255);">Saturday, September 28, 2019 Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton

November 22,

Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems

rgb(51, 51, 255);">Wednesday, October 24,

New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles

Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)

Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164Sponsors: Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)

Oct 16, Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14); Lampitt (D6)..."  Read more

Hmmmm.... Things are beginning to move in New Jersey.  Alain

Testimony of Alain Kornhauser, Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM

Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM

CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS

PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash) May 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.

...The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency

braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions for detecting driver alertness and road sign information. All these Volvo functions are disabled when the test vehicle is operated in computer control..."Read more 

Hmmmm.... Uber must believe that its systems are better at avoiding Collisions and Automated Emergency Braking than Volvo's.  At least this gets Volvo "off the hook".

"...According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph..." (= 63 feet/second) So the system started "seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away... more than a football field, including end zones!

"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path..." (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this "object' as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected "future travel paths."  Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber's system attached to the "object", then the "vehicle". Why didn't the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision?  If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren't they accurate?  Why was the object classified as a "Vehicle" ??  When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?  Why did it change classifications? How often was the classification of this object done.  Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object. In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a"pedestrian"when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber's Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)

"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.

"...According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. ..." NTSB:  Please describe/define potential  and erratic vehicle behavior   Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating " "erratic vehicle behavior".  This is fundamentally BAD design.  If the Uber system's false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.

"...The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. " Wow! If Uber's system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past "Peak valuation".

"...The system is not designed to alert the operator. " That may be the only good part of Uber's design.  In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don't waste your time.  If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I May 10,  2018   Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto

Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving

announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles

Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1.  Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above!  Also see his TipRanks.  Alain

Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD

Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering

Director, Transportation Program

Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering

229 Sherrerd Hall

Princeton University

Princeton, NJ

609-258-4657 (o)

609-980-1427 (c)

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