9.30 - CPUC
August 6, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;">29th edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
DECISION AUTHORIZING DEPLOYMENT OF DRIVERED AND DRIVERLESS AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE PASSENGER SERVICE
CPUC, Nov 23, '20, "This decision creates two new autonomous vehicle programs that authorize fare collection (deployment programs), one for drivered autonomous vehicles and the other for driverless autonomous vehicles. Among other requirements, applicants to the existing driverless pilot program and the new driverless deployment program must submit Passenger Safety Plans that outline their plans to protect passenger safety for driverless operations.
In addition, the decision establishes four goals that apply to both the existing pilot programs and the new deployment programs; 1.) Protect passenger safety; 2.) Expand the benefits of AV technologies to all of Californians, including people with disabilities; 3.) Improve transportation options for all, particularly for disadvantaged communities and low-income communities; and 4.) Reduce greenhouse gas emissions, criteria air pollutants, and toxic air contaminants, particularly in disadvantaged communities. The Commission will collect data to monitor permit holders' progress toward each of the goals...." Read more
Hmmmm... Sorry for not reporting this sooner, and thank you Doug Coventry for bringing it to my attention. It is must reading for any jurisdiction making regulations regarding the provision of autonomousTaxi mobility.
Its four goals are laudable, especially the 3rd, even if it may end up violating part of the 4th. Moreover, the clauses of the 3rd should be re-ordered to be: ... Improve transportation options for disadvantaged communities, low income communities and those with disabilities, and, if possible, for all... This also reduces the goals to 3 important ones, ... safety, the environment and improved mobility for those that have been left behind by the personal automobile
Of course, one wants to improve mobility for those that drive their own personal car; however, that is a entrenched well-served set of customers that are not readily going to flip from driving their car to something that isn't really better and may largely be perceived as no cigar. Certainly, the public sector should in no way use public resources to give car drivers yet another good but inferior choice as was done with many public transportation investments that actually provide inferior mobility to those that were to be attract as customers. These systems are rebuffed by many that they were intended to be taken off the road for the trips they already make, let alone deliver quality-of-life benefits by providing mobility to new places that they couldn't previously access.
A properly designed Operational Design Domain focused on from and where low income communities want to go is, to my mind, where the best opportunity exits for these safe, environmentally responsible systems . In such ODDs these driverless aTaxis can actually improve quality-of-life; and thus, deserve accommodation and promotion by public agencies such as CPUC. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 227, Zoom-Cast Episode 227
w/Ray Stern, news editor, Phoenix New Times
F. Fishkin, Aug 1, "https://youtu.be/Prun7fwOzYM In Arizona…the trial of a former Uber autonomous vehicle attendant om the death of Elaine Herzberg is still pending. Her attorneys say it is the company that should be responsible. From the Phoenix New Times, news editor Ray Sternjoins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a spirited discussion of the issues surrounding the case and more. Or you can listen to Episode 227 of Smart Driving Cars... https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-227-autonomy-responsibility-and-arizona" Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
California Is Coming For Your Car
Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Aug, 3. "Driving through upstate New York, every other vehicle appears to be a pickup truck such as a Ford F-150 or Chevy Silverado. But on August 11 the California Air Resources Board (CARB) will hold a public meeting to present draft regulations on requirements for Californians to purchase low- and zero-emission vehicles. CARB is charged with implementing California Governor Gavin Newsom's 2020 Executive Order banning sales of new gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks in the Golden State from 2035.
If California rules just applied to Californians, drivers in New York State and elsewhere would not have to worry. But rules that start in the Golden State drift east, like smoke from the wildfires. The Clean Air Act permits California to pass its own standards for new cars, subject to Environmental Protection Administration approval. Auto manufacturers like to produce for one market, so California has disproportionate clout...."Read more
Hmmmm... Seems as if regulating the How (EV, ICE, Steam, Horse, ...) instead of the What (pollution produced) is not good public policy. All one needs is to look at the latest California's Lawrence Livermore (LL) Energy Flow Map to seriously doubt that banning ICEs in favor of EVs is going to deliver environmental benefits that are in line with the likely societal angst associated with the cure.
It remains questionable that any environmental benefits accrue from switching from an EV from an ICE. The LL Energy Map shows that 40% of California's electricity is now generated from natural gas. I'm assuming that California operates its electrical systems so as to minimize environmental impact so that it is burning natural gas only because the other, less polluting, sources are maxed out. Thus, each new user of electricity in California, such as each conversion of an ICE to EV will be powered by natural gas. Moreover, two-thirds of the the generated electricity is lost ("rejected energy") even before it gets to the car's electric charger. So, one has to do some careful computations in the various scenarios to determine if powering personal cars with natural gas today in California is even infinitesimal better than with gasoline. (The answer is more obvious in states like Texas where almost 30%of electricity today is generated by coal. Not even close!)
For 2035 one needs to have a clear vision of how electric generation will evolve, how transmission losses can be reduced and how improvements in the ICE may emerge before one institutionalizes executive orders aimed at the How. Alain
Potential Crash Rate Benchmarks for Automated Vehicles
N. Doodall, Aug '21, "Most automobile manufacturers and several technology companies are testing automated vehicles on public roads. While automation of the driving task is expected to reduce crashes, there is no consensus regarding how safe an automated vehicle must be before it can be deployed. An automated vehicle should be at least as safe as the average driver, but national crash rates include drunk and distracted driving, meaning that an automated vehicle that crashes at the average rate is somewhere between drunk and sober. In this paper, automated vehicle safety benchmarks are explored from three perspectives. First, crash rates from naturalistic driving studies are used to determine the crash risk of the model (i.e., sober, rested, attentive, cautious) driver. Second, stated preference surveys in the literature are reviewed to estimate the public's acceptable automated vehicle risk. Third, crash, injury, and fatality rates from other transportation modes are compared as baseline safety levels. A range of potential safety targets is presented as a guide for policymakers, regulators, and automated vehicle developers to assist in evaluating the safety of automated driving technologies for public use. ..." Read more
Hmmmm... This is a really good paper. It addresses the safety metric and in Table 2 summarizes the various safety measures across various modes, including elevators. As pointed out to me by Glenn Mercer, elevators don't score very well as compared to many other modes; yet, few seem to hesitate using operatorless elevators.
My only issue is that the paper seems to focus on safety as being the only criteria in making decisions about AVs. Sure, safety is important, but there are other attributes of autonomousTaxis that are not irrelevant.
Buses may well be safe, but they offer lousy mobility and incur a high cost per passenger mile to deliver that lousy service.
Cars are pretty safe and offer fantastic mobility, but require substantial expertise that needs to be free for cars to be affordable.
Elevators aren't all that safe but provide great up&down mobility without incurring a labor cost. Moreover, their capital costs are gladly covered by the locations that benefit (owe their very existence) from the mobility being delivered.
Anyway... very good paper. Alain
TDOT, Vanderbilt studying self-driving cars on I-24
K. Horan, Aug 3, "A six-mile portion of I-24 will soon be the test site for a first-of-its-kind study on how autonomous cars impact traffic. Atop 110 foot tall poles, 300 ultra high definition cameras will view the section of road between Bell and Waldren roads. The goal is to collect data about how autonomous vehicles move in traffic and improve the flow of vehicles for everyone.
"Human drivers are actually less consistent than autonomous vehicles are today," said Dan Work, engineer and researcher for Vanderbilt University. "So, we can actually pick up the nuances of the way that you or I drive that are distinct from the way automated vehicles drive..."Read more
Hmmmm... A really good idea; however, unless some Teslas tend to drive this road segment, it will be a while before there may be enough "Self-driving" cars out there to measure anything but rare occurrences and a very long time before there are Driverless cars or trucks there.
What could be done with this system is to test the implications of cruise control, both the "unintelligent" (throttle only control) and the intelligent varieties. Vanderbilt could capture images of the existing flows and then ask TDoT to install a VMS to encourage drivers to use cruise control in their travels ahead. It would be very interesting to determine if the encouragement to use cruise control had any effect. This seems like an easy thing to do; however, I'm not aware that any state DoT has ever encouraged the use of cruise control in any manner. please let me know if I'm wrong on this. Plus, to make sense out of the results Vanderbilt will need to determine the extent of cruise control use in the before and the after recordings. They will also need to differentiate between non-intelligent and intelligent cruise control users. All no trivial details. Should be interesting. Alain
DOT moves to regulate self-driving car tests on NYC streets
D. Meyers, Aug. 3, "The de Blasio Administration wants to force companies that road-test self-driving cars on the streets in spots around the five boroughs to apply for permits, according to recently proposed changes to city rules...." Read more
Hmmmm... First thing to do is to ban them in Manhattan. Talk about the last Operational Design Domain that these vehicles should operate in. Also, the only reason anyone would do such a thing is for the buzz and not the substance. Since this is all about the buzz and not the substance, each of these companies need to be charged a very large fee for the use of the city's streets for its promotional activities. The city's streets are for mobility and not click bait. Alain
Elon Musk speaks out about Tesla's $1.5 million payment to settle a battery-charging lawsuit, saying 'if we are wrong, we are wrong. In this case, we were.'
K. Shalvey, July 31, ""If we are wrong, we are wrong," he said on Twitter on Friday. "In this case, we were."
Tesla agreed to pay $1.5 million to settle claims it had reduced the charging capacity on some vehicles in 2019, according to a settlement agreement filed in US District Court in San Francisco on Wednesday.
"Tesla policy is never to give in to false claims, even if we would lose, and never to fight true claims, even if we would win," he said...." Read more
Hmmmm... Very nice. Now he needs to change the name of his driver Comfort & Control systems and to insist that his owners remain alert, diligent and not mis-behave while these products are engaged. Alain
Was the Backup Driver in an Uber Autonomous Car Crash Wrongfully Charged?
R. Stern, July 9, "No doubt, Rafaela Vasquez should have seen pedestrian Elaine Herzberg sooner on March 18, 2018, and taken action before the autonomous Uber vehicle she was riding in hit and killed her.
Widely seen interior video from a camera inside the Volvo SUV shows that Vasquez was not looking at the road in the seconds before the impact.
But there's far more to the story than that, and Vasquez's defense team says the grand jury didn't get to hear information critical to the case before deciding to indict her last September on a charge of negligent homicide. Yavapai County Attorney Sheila Polk decided that Uber was not criminally liable in the crash in March 2019.
Her private lawyers, Albert Morrison and Marci Kratter, filed an extensive motion in Maricopa County Superior Court on Tuesday demanding that the case be remanded back to the grand jury for a new determination of probable cause...." Read more
Hmmmm...In short my ethics say... Yes! See also Vasquez Remand Motion, July 9.
The algorithm "saw" Elaine 6 seconds before it hit her. The algorithm wasn't written to side on caution ... slowing down to take more time to resolve its confusion. The algorithm was written in such a way that it simply continued on "full steam ahead". The algorithm had disabled the Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) system. The AEB was supposed to be explicitly deactivated only at speeds under 40 mph, yet the algorithm had the car traveling at 41 mph. Finally, the AEB itself may have been miscoded to explicitly disregard objects in the lane ahead for which the component of their speed in the direction of the lane centerline is sensed to be zero. Please don't write code that does that!. Much of this miscoding by those that devise, chart and write these algorithms is out of a tendency to prefer comfort over safety/caution.
The act of driving down a road naturally involves the encounter with numerous objects for which "their speed in the direction of the lane centerline" is in fact zero. These are all of the stationary objects one encounters when traveling. Buildings along the side of the road, parked cars, telephone poles, picket fences, pedestrians waiting patiently for the light to change, etc. Unfortunately, the sensors that sense these objects, including LiDAR, are not perfect (nothing is), and will, while rarely, misplace these objects as being in the lane ahead. Moreover, there are stationary object that are indeed correctly sensed to be in the lane ahead, but these can readily be passed under... overhead signs, tree canopies and overpasses. Consequently, none of these stationary objects pose any danger. They can readily be passed under if they are really in the lane ahead and can be readily bypassed, if they are mis-located common stationary objects that line the road ahead... Unless it really is an object whose "speed in the direction of the lane centerline" is zero and it is really located in the lane ahead, as it was with Elaine Herzberg.... and with the rash of Tesla crashes with trucks sprawled across the lane ahead, firetrucks and police cruisers parked in the lane ahead, NJ barriers located in the center of an inappropriately striped exit lane, and trees in the lawn ahead.
Luckily, stationary objects in travel lanes are extremely rare, but, unfortunately, sensors and algorithms much more often mis-position objects in the lane ahead that are actually beside the lane, not in the lane. To avoid the "discomfort" of slowing down to be sure, these algorithms have been written to disregard, rather than be careful.
I my view, it is those that have written and implemented these algorithms that are the true folks that are "responsible" for this tragic crash. They didn't have to write the algorithms that way. They could have written them to be better and more rarely mis-position stationary object. Moreover, they knew they had a problem here, because the code over-simplistically and irresponsibly dismisses its shortcoming. It is the way this code was written that caused this crash. The code required Rafaela to save it from this disaster. I doubt that Raphaela was informed about this fundamental shortcoming in the code.
Consequently, my ethics side that she is wrongfully charged. Whether or not the algorithm designers and coders need to be charged, is another question. They certainly should be aware that they are complicit here. So should the Society of Automotive Engineers who preaches "cause no harm' and thus suggest that one never brake when one shouldn't be braking. The person who is tailgating you may rear-end you. In a perfect world, then maybe. But, all of us, except for maybe SAEers, get confused, miss identify, mis locate and hopefully we all do hit the brakes at least a little to give us some time to get things straight. This philosophy should also apply to these automated gizmos. Alain
C'mon Man!(These folks didn't get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
More On....
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Poser'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines" . See slides, See video
Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain
4thAnnual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.
Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April 18, "It's time to hit the start button," is Fred Fishkin's succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times' Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen: Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to "the Trentons of the World."
Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,....." Read more
Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle's Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
15th Session Making it Happen - Part One: Elected Officials' Role in Creating a Welcoming Environment in the Trentons of this World
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
Michael Sena's Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021"Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the "Trentons" of this World"
Orf467F20_FinalReport "Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System" Kornhauser & He, March 2021 "AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative"
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Fall 2021 Live in Person Tentaively: November 2 (evening) -> 4, 2021
On the More Technical Side http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean's AV Research Group at U of Texas
and The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, "Recordings from the conference: Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: (Cybersecurity): https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY
Session 3: (Automated Driving Systems): https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc
Session 4: (Communications for ADS) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso Read more
Hmmmm... Russ, thank you for sharing! Alain
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 226, Zoom-Cast Episode 226 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
F. Fishkin, July 22, "The Wall Street Journal's Tim Higgins has a new book arriving August 3rd titled POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. You can bet it's a lively discussion with Tim on the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or listen.. https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-226-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 225, Zoom-Cast Episode 225 w/Kevin Biesty, Deputy Director for Policy @ Arizona DoT
F. Fishkin, July 22, "Chandler, Arizona is the one place where paying customers can take advantage of driverless robo-taxis (from Waymo) to get where they are going. How did that happen? What does the future hold? Kevin Biesty, Arizona's Deputy Director for Policy at the Department of Transportation, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for an in depth discussion. Plus.. Ford, Argo, Lyft, Tesla, Mercedes & more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 224, Zoom-Cast Episode 224 w/Selika Josiah Talbot, Principal, Autonomous Vehicle Consulting
F. Fishkin, July 19, "Does there need to be a White House appointed autonomous and electric vehicle czar to open up new mobility possibilities for all? That's the view of Selika Josiah Talbott..a government veteran who now heads Autonomous Vehicle Consulting and lectures at American University. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a deeper look at how the technology can be deployed to improve lives.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 223, Zoom-Cast Episode 223 w/Richard Mudge, Compass Transp. & Baruch Feigenbaum, Reason Foundation
F. Fishkin, July 15, "Can Tesla (and others) make automatic emergency braking work? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser continues his push and is joined by the Reason Foundation's Baruch Feigenbaum and Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge along with co-host Fred Fishkin to explore this week'ss Transportation Research Board sessions. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 222, Zoom-Cast Episode 222
F. Fishkin, July 11, "Is it time for autopilot to not break the law? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser says yes. And if technology can save lives, prevent injuries and crashes…shouldn't it? Plus Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, Waymo, VW and more on Episode 222 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221, Zoom-Cast Episode 221 w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox
F. Fishkin, July 1, "With Zoox…the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company's vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220 w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times
F. Fishkin, July 1, "Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That's a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill...who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that...plus Tesla...autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 219, Zoom-Cast Episode 219 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, June 29 , "Why couldn't a smart driving car prevent Alain's crash with a deer? How important is exact location for highly automated driving? And NHTSA wants reports on all automated vehicle system crashes. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 218, Zoom-Cast Episode 218 w/Xinfeng Le, Waymo Product Manager
F. Fishkin, June 10 , "Have questions about Waymo’s partnership with JB Hunt to test autonomous trucks in Texas? So do we…and Waymo’s Product Manager, Xinfeng Le joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to provide answers. Plus.. Waymo raises 2 and a half billion dollars, MacKenzie Scott gives away billions, start-up Waabi comes out of stealth, Argo AI plans an IPO and more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 217, Zoom-Cast Episode 217 w/Christorpher Mims, Columnist, Wall Street Journal
F. Fishkin, June 7 , "Are self-driving cars still decades ahead? Wall Street Jopurnal columnist and author Christopher Mims joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the progress and roadblocks. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, the dramatic rise in road deaths during Covid and more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 216, Zoom-Cast Episode 216 w/Michael Sena, editor The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 28 , "The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming Into Focus. That's on top in the June edition of The Dispatcher. From Sweden, publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus better batteries, May Mobility, Tesla and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 215, Zoom-Cast Episode 215 w/Cade Metz, Correspondent, NY Times & Ken Pyle, editor, Viodi.com
F. Fishkin, May 27 , "The Costly Pursuit of Self Driving Cars Continues On and On and On. That's the headline of a NY Times story this week. The reporter, Cade Metz, also the author of a new book on artificial intelligence, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Ken Pyle of Viodi View.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 214, Zoom-Cast Episode 214
F. Fishkin, May 23 , "An interview with the chief engineer behind Ford's F150 Lightning EV truck...Waymo shares rider stories and the AFL-CIO tells Congress autonomous vehicles should be required to have human operators. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America's Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , "The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America's Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX,
Tesla, #GM,
TuSimple and
more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too. "..
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212 w/Ken Pyle
F. Fishkin, May 8 , "Where does Waymo go from here? Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles? Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211 w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 1 , "There's plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense...and what doesn't. Plus #Tesla,#Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. ..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210 w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron'23
F. Fishkin, April 26 , "Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from
Elon​
Musk's The Boring Company. Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton's Alain .."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209 w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.
F. Fishkin, April , "The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208 w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo
F. Fishkin, April 18, "What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo...some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207 w/Selika Josiah Talbott
F. Fishkin, April 10 , "When a driverless vehicle crashes...what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206 w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
F. Fishkin, April 2, "When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles? How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome? Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205 w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher. President, MLSena Consulting
F. Fishkin, March 26, "Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities. So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more...on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, ".With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker's new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table...and a look at the future of auto insurance.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser F. Fishkin, March 13, ".GM's move to transform auto insurance through OnStar Insurance: Is it a win, win for all? Is adaptive cruise control prompting some drivers to speed? And what does Tesla really mean by "full self driving"? Just some of the questions tackled in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202, Zoom-Cast Episode 202 President & CEO, RoadDB
F. Fishkin, March 3, "When will we be able to purchase cars that can largely drive themselves? It may not be long...but don't expect to vacate the driver's seat. That's the view of entrepreneur, tech pioneer and RoadDB CEO Russ Shields. He takes an in depth look at where we are and where we're headed with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201, Zoom-Cast Episode 201 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Feb. 26, "Smarter cars need smarter assembly...and location matters. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at that, politics, climate and carmakers...plus Tesla, Velodyne, Foxconn and more.." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200, Zoom-Cast Episode 200 w/Edwin Olsen, CEO, May Mobility F. Fishkin, Feb. 22, "How May Mobility is building confidence in autonomous transportation and creating a road map for growth through the pandemic and beyond. CEO and co-founder Edwin Olson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more."
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
July 30, 2021
Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Charged With Lying to Investors C. . Ramey, July 29, "Trevor Milton, the founder of Nikola Corp. and onetime executive chairman of the electric-truck startup, was indicted Thursday on securities-fraud charges for what prosecutors said was a scheme to mislead investors about the company's product and technology development.
Mr. Milton faces two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud, according to the indictment. The U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan, which brought the charges, is set to make an announcement about the indictment on Thursday morning.
A spokesman for Mr. Milton didn't immediately comment. Last year, Mr. Milton said on Twitter that he intended to defend himself against "false allegations". He resigned from Nikola in September as concerns mounted about the startup darlingthat had attracted backing from some of the industry's biggest names.
Nikola wasn't charged. The company said that Mr. Milton hasn't been involved in the company's operations or communications since his resignation. "Nikola has cooperated with the government throughout the course of its inquiry," the company's statement said. "We remain committed to our previously announced milestones and timelines and are focused on delivering Nikola Tre battery-electric trucks later this year from the company's manufacturing facilities."..." Read more
Hmmmm... Speaks for itself. Alain
July 23, 2021
Upward Urban & Rural Mobility via Autonomous Mobility K. Pyle, July 19, "It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. The picture Selika Josiah Talbott chose for her virtual backdrop at the recent 2021 TRB Annual Automated Road Transportation Symposium sums up the mobility challenges that urban and rural locales face with existing infrastructure, particularly in low-income areas. Joining Talbott on this panel were experts opining on Talbott's insightful comments about autonomous mobility and its potential to provide upward mobility...." Read more
Hmmmm... Simply a must read. This is the real market for autonomousTaxis (aTaxis). Alain
July 17, 2021 2021 TRB Annual Automated Road Transportation Symposium July 12 -> 15, "..." Read more
Hmmmm...I haven't been able to find a public source for any of the content from the symposium but there were at least three sessions (of the few that I was able to attend) that were really good. One was B-101- An inside Look at Policy-Making for Automated Vehicles, moderated by Baruch Feigenbaum of the Reason Foundation. Pay particular attention to the insights offered by Kevin Biesty of Arizona DoT. So far, no one in the world has done it better.
A second one was B204-Inclusive by Design: Creating an Equitable and Accessible Automated Future, moderated by Charlotte Frei.
The third was Richard Mudge's B402- Shark Tank: Everything from Free Freight to AV for Low-Income Travelers to how many AV Firms will Survive?. (Spoil alert... the answer is . Selika Talbot's presentation was absolutely fantastic. See PodCast/ZoomCast below for a discussion of parts of this session. Fred and I hope to do PodCasts/ZoomCasts with Selika and Kevin in the coming week.
Hopefully TRB will broadly distribute the recorded videos of these and the other sessions. One caution is that even in this community there is substantial confusion introduced over terminology which ends up having people talk by rather than with each other. This was an "Automated Road Transportation" symposium. One aspect of road transportation is the fundamental role of the human driver. It is very different than that of elevators that go from A to B without any direct human driver/operator intervention. The customer only tells the elevator what floor to go to. Everything else in the up/down mobility process is automated within the elevator's Operational Design Domain (which is usually in a shaft, stooping only at designated stopping locations (floors) with centimeter accuracy but only when when sufficient power exists to perform the various operations. (Note: "Level 5 elevators" (operate under any power-available condition) will "never" exist.). It is easy for us to see the phenomenal difference in the societal value that can be achieved in elevators that deliver safe, shared-ride, on-demand 24/7 mobility, indiscriminately to essentially everyone. Unfortunately, precious little of that broad societal value can be achieved unless the elevator's safe operation can be achieved without a human operator/driver.
This is a bang-bang situation. Either you have it or you don't. Coming close doesn't cut it.
It doesn't mean that human operated elevators don't deliver value to individual owners. My neighbor across the street has a dumbwaiter in her house that she and her husband control manually to move things including themselves up and down in their house. Works great. Real value. They both remain capable of performing the manual operations for themselves and if they charge themselves for the labor, they gain that charge so the transaction nets to zero labor cost. charge themselves . While some benefits (comfort & convenience) might be gained by them by automating some of the operating functions, full automation would be silly unless at least some number of neighbors would improve their quality-of-life if only they could easily go up and down in their house. That latent demand for improved quality-of-life does exist in tall buildings. It's been consumed in a large part because elevators became operatorless and not just operator assisted. Shared and not quite door2door shortcomings are endured. 24/7, on-demand, affordable (especially for the rent payer on the "14th" floor. So much so that they just pick up the tab for the elevators that deliver accessibility to/from the "14th floor") are the fundamental mobility attributes that totally dominate the competition for mobility afforded by the stairwell. Without the elimination of the operator/driver, the 24/7, on-demand, affordable trifecta is not deliverable to anybody.
Way too often during the Symposium automation that explicitly requires the continued presence of a driver and is only at best a comfort & convenience feature as ascribed benefits that accrue only for systems that achieve safe driverless operation. There is no getting away from it, automation that assist drivers is radically different than automation that replaces drivers. Hopefully next year we can have 2 AV conferences. One that focuses on automation to assist human drivers and one that focuses on technology and deployments that replaces the driver.
As far as connectivity goes, we need to realize that it is a nice2have, not a need2have. Since it can only deliver value among pairs of adopters, it struggles getting started by itself when it needs to find a partner. Unfortunately, road vehicles have performed well for more than 100 years without much connectivity and automation at this point is saying: you aren't much help and we can't afford to carry you along. Alain July 11, 2021
Tesla Says Autopilot Makes Its Cars Safer. Crash Victims Say It Kills. Neal Boudette, July 5, " Benjamin Maldonado and his teenage son were driving back from a soccer tournament on a California freeway in August 2019 when a truck in front of them slowed. Mr. Maldonado flicked his turn signal and moved right. Within seconds, his Ford Explorer pickup was hit by a Tesla Model 3 that was traveling about 60 miles per hour on Autopilot.
A six-second video captured by the Tesla and data it recorded show that neither Autopilot, Tesla's much-vaunted system that can steer, brake and accelerate a car on its own, nor the driver slowed the vehicle until a fraction of a second before the crash..." Read more
Hmmmm... A few comments here: 1. Because of the suit here, hopefully more of the data associated with this crash will be made public. Future crashes such as these seem to be covered by the recent NHTSA standing General Order requiring the data to be released without need of lawyers, assuming Tesla cooperates. 2. Neal (slightly) overstate his plot which clearly shows the Tesla began to decelerate slightly more than a full second before impact. He also doesn't mention what the video clearly shows that the Tesla was "cut-off" by the pickup truck. More over the pickup applied its brakes as it was making the lane change (brake light came on). This brake application may well have been the critical element that made the crash unavoidable. AutoPilot was likely tacking the pickup from at least the 6 seconds before collision point. Tesla must have data on the relative longitudinal speed between the pickup and the Tesla.and it must also have an expected time-to-collision which is a critical measure as to when to kick in the Automated Emergency Braking System. Once again, my main concern here is not (yet) about the performance of AutoPilot, but the performance of Tesla's Automated Emergency Braking System (AEBS). This is a rear-end crash. It is the responsibility of the AEBS to avert these crashes. Seems as if the AEBS did NOT properly anticipate the pick-up's maneuver nor properly monitor time-to-collision. My recommendation here is to improve the AEBS.
3. Comments implying that radar would have been better at identifying the 'cut-off' are questionable. Lane intrusion is only partial until about 3 seconds before impact. Radar does not return lateral relative-speed, only longitudinal relative-speed. Who knows what lag exists in determining lateral speed and the accuracy of that determination. I doubt that either are very good web based on radar. My guess is that image processing at better than 20Hz would do best in this clear situation.
4. Interpretation of the turn signal can only be done with image processing (to my knowledge.)
5. Nothing is reported about any horn actuation (or if autoPilot even uses the horn). The brake application by the pickup may have been an impulsive response to a horn blow by the Tesla.
6. There seems to be no indication by the driver of the pick-up that he saw the Tesla coming.
7. The Tesla data likely also has its closing speed on the panel truck and thus the closing speed of the pick-up to the panel truck. This information may help us to begin to understand the extent to which the pickup was tailgating the panel truck. 8. To me, AutoPilot's main issue is: should it allow "passing on the right" when "passing on the right" is illegal. The reason it is illegal is because it leads to crashes like this one, that is an issue that should be taken up by NHTSA and NTSB. To what extent should any of these automated driving devices engage in "illegal" driving? My current view (subject to change) is: a. Up to 9 mph over is OK. b. Rolling through a stop sign is OK, if it is determined that time to any likely collision is greater than 5 seconds (meaning you must be able to "see" at least 5 seconds away at speed limit +9 (or something similar)
c. Cross double line as long as oncoming traffic has slowed to under 25 mph and has room to proceed by squeezing right (or something like that).
d. Pass on the right as long as all pertinent vehicles in the two lanes are moving at less than 25 mph (or something like that).
Alain
June 28, 2021 How Important is Exact Localization for HAD? M. Sena, July/Aug. '21, "In this issue of The Dispatcher for July and August, I have taken up a subject in the lead article that has been on my list for quite some time. It is of how cars that drive themselves keep themselves on the road while they make their journey to their destination. It turns out that there is a very good reason why Teslas crash and Waymo is running around only in Chandler, Arizona after people who didn't know better promised that there would be completely driverless cars on all roads a decade ago: localization of a moving vehicle is very, very hard, even for a human.
I encourage you to read Musings this month. It's about making the journey to a world without climate change protests, a world where they either won't be necessary or allowed. On most journeys, we have to cross bridges. Sometimes we have to make them ourselves. Think of the article as the first bridge to cross toward a better understanding of the climate change journey.
Dispatch Central contains, as usual, something for everyone. Insurance is addressed in the two main articles. In Bits and Pieces I have added my thoughts on recent events.
This is a double issue, in part because we are going to try to do more this summer than we could do last. But it's also because I need some extra time to work on a follow-up to the Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit with Professor Alain Kornhauser. There was a concrete proposal put forward by Professor Kornhauser during the last session, and many of us who took part in the Summit have committed to try to work on implementing that proposal. Read more
Hmmmm... . Once again an outstanding The Dispatcher. I happen to have a diffent fundamental view on"exact localization" than Michael, many and possibly even everyone else... As usual, I'll take a very self-centered view... I've lived my whole life without knowing (or caring to know) my "exact location". I've been satisfied to know: "sort of... where am I?" but exact...where am I? ... not so much. What troubles me about the "exact where am I" is that this exactness is in some coordinate system. Where is the origin of that coordinate system and is moving? Oh, it's the "center" of the earth?? Or some "reference point". So "exact" is actually, "exact relative to some reference point. Little seems to ever be said about the "exactness" of the reference point, but that may actually be some saving grace about "exact".. it is "exact" relative to some reference point.
I see.. If the reference point is the center of the Universe, then I'd better be really-really precise; else, small small changes mean big-big differences. If the reference is the center of the earth, then I may just need to be really precise; else, small changes mean big differences. However, if the reference point is my nose and I'm trying to stay between two white lines and not hit anything, then the precision to which I need to know where things are may not need to be very precise as long as I have a little bit of leeway and still stay between the lines and leave enough room around the various objects to not hit them.
OK, safe driving requires only knowing where I am relative to objects around me to a moderate level of precision. I can do it in two ways... take the difference between two values: location of object and my location. The farther away the reference point, the more precise they will need to be if precision of the difference is to be maintained. Consequently, if the measurements are relative to my nose, the need for about as small as it can get.
Moreover, any precision data base lacks some "most" important values.. 1. a precise value for my location and 2. a precise value for anything around me that moves (meaning it wasn't at its current location when the HD database was assembled). Required is the ability in real time to locate and track objects relative to me (my nose, the hood ornament of my car, ..) with only some precision These objects and their location aren't included in these precise/HD databases. What is needed is a very reliable means of identifying objects and determining their position and velocity with little latency. This is absolutely necessary;uyr;y necessary for the moving objects, might as well do it also for the stationary objects. Alain
Please don't suggest that one needs an HD map database in order to run their SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping) algorithm. That algorithm needs as input the relative position (sensor observations) of objects . The capability to determine those inputs is all that is needed to do collision avoidance, so don't even bother going through the SLAM computation and certainly don't pay for a reference data set.
May 29, 2021 The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming into Focus M. Sena, June 2021, "...Mobility-as-a-service would provide the business model to tie everything together, perhaps as an extension of your phone/broadband subscription. Private car ownership would soon be a relic of a bygone age.
This is an interesting narrative, but is not a correct one. Even before COVID-19 changed how people have been living outside of China since Friday, the 13th of March 2020, the picture of everything happening in high density cities was a rumor that companies like WEWORK spread to build their houses of cards. ...
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ..
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ... What cities are doing today all over the world is neither providing an adequate service to their citizens nor using the money allocated for transport in a cost-effective way...
Bite the bullet and get private cars off the big city streets
The reasons that people who live in cities began to buy cars was that they needed them to get to their jobs, the ones that began moving out of the cities in the campuses where there were no transit links. Then they needed them to drop off their children to day care centers since both parents worked. Then they needed them to drop off their older children...
As I said, it is not buses that will meet the need. Neither is it roads filled with taxis. There are taxis offering rides in Trenton and Scranton, but they are not replacing buses because they are too expensive and are often unavailable when demand for them is highest. The Uber/Lyft model can be better at meeting demand, but they are still too costly..."
Hmmmm... Enjoy the whole issue. It is enormously well written! Also listen/watch the SDC Pod/Zoom Cast 216- below with Michael. Alain May 22, 2021
Why I Ride with Waymo: Mike Waymo One, May 13, "... I started taking it to work, and after crunching the numbers for gas, maintenance, insurance, upkeep, and owning a depreciating investment, it was pretty much a no-brainer that we really didn't need two cars. I sold off my car and made Waymo my choice for commuting to and from work and for trips my wife and I need to take when the other is using our car..." Read more.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the "easiest" ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
May 8, 2021 Why hasn't Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here's is my theory T. Lee, May 7, "Suburban ride-hailing is a lousy business to be in.
Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver's seat.
And then... nothing. Seven months later, Waymo has neither expanded the footprint of the Phoenix service nor has it announced a timeline for launching in a second city.
It's as if Steve Jobs had unveiled the iPhone, shipped a few thousand phones to an Apple Store in Phoenix, and then didn't ship any more for months; and wouldn't explain why.
Last Friday, two Waymo employees participated in an "ask me anything" thread on the SelfDrivingCars subreddit, a watering hole for self-driving industry insiders. Questions about expansion plans dominated the conversation.
"How are you going to scale?" one redditor asked. "What are the impediments to service expansion at this time?"
The Waymonauts responded with maddening generalities.
"We feel the same urgency to scale quickly that others do, but a ton of work goes into doing it safely," wrote Waymo's Sam Kansara." Read more
Hmmmm... Not at all surprising. Can you imagine trying to be better than one's own Land Rover or Porsche in car country. That is a heavy lift. Making it heavier is the focus on today's most entitled yuppies. That's as bad as the original focus of driverless cars on 1%ers. Waymos are pure and simple mobility machines to get you from/to places horizontally, just as elevators do vertically ... just get you up to the "8th floor". Why are elevators so successful at what they do?... Second best is the stairwell! They win all the time, hands down.
In Chandler, the "stairwell" is your car parked in your garage. You don't even have to go outside in all that heat. Waymo's got to be really good to beat that! Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances "slim-to-none". Not that the car in the garage doesn't have an enormous amount of "excess baggage". Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it. When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car. Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live. That's a challenging market place for Waymo. It's worse than Bing v Google
A better place for Waymo ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service. The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car. Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don't have access to one. Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach "the eighth floor"; which, once they can using Waymo, would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.
Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that's arguably the last place for Waymo to go. However, the census identifies many communities and "inner suburbs" that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household. For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice. Numerous Trenton residents would readily perceive Waymo as the "Google" in their trip mode-choice.
Another note... trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool's gambit. Since Waymos don't misbehave, it is "easy" to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about. Alain
Link to previous SDC eLetters
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
alaink@princeton.edu
609-980-1427 (c)