9.34 - Few use
September 4, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;">34th edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
In a patch of Arizona, everyone knows Waymo. But few use it.
R. Duffy, Aug 23, "Chandler, Arizona, is a city of just over 250,000 that's located southeast of Phoenix. Like most of Arizona, it's hot, dry, and lined with cacti and palm trees.
But unlike most of Arizona—or virtually anywhere else in the world—Chandler residents share the road with fully driverless robotaxis, courtesy of Waymo. As Stacy, a Chandler resident, told us, "Waymos are like rabbits in my neighborhood."
Since October 2020, the Alphabet subsidiary has been running its driverless ride-hail service, Waymo One, in a 50-square-mile service area that encompasses parts of Chandler, Tempe, Mesa, and Gilbert. Anyone with a smartphone, credit card, and GPS coordinates in the service area can hail a completely driverless ride of their own.
In December 2018, Waymo opened Waymo One (with safety drivers) to the general public, expanding beyond an early rider program available to pre-approved, NDA-bound Phoenix residents. The company's current testing zone, for driverless and safety operator-supervised vehicles, stretches across roughly 100 square miles.
And although residents living in or near the service area may be used to seeing Waymo's glossy-white, sensor-laden Chrysler Pacificas roving around, the chances they've ridden in one are much, much lower. .." Read more As I've been writing, Chandler is a great place to test Driverless mobility to make sure it at least begins to work; however, the value in the technology is not as amusement or thrill ride or as circus sideshow. The value is its ability to affordably deliver high quality on-demand mobility. It will be a long time before it can provide a higher quality of service that a chauffeured "Black car" or limousine, so it can't compete for those traveling on an expense account or the well to do. It also can't really compete to serve the Drive-it-Yourself (DiY) folks that can afford to buy their own cars and park them for free when not in use. Conventional mobility serves all of these folks very well.
Where this form of mobility has a real advantage is to serve folks who are required to conform to mobility whose very limited service is provided on a "take-it-or-leave-it" operational philosophy. Services that operate between few fixed locations at strictly stipulated times specified by the service provider. The disparity in service is incredible between mobility options that respond directly to customer needs in terms of from/to/when (walking, DiY personal car, Uber/Lyft/taxi/limousine/WaymoOne) and public transit's "take-it-or-leave-it" customer service approach.
Consequently, Waymo's market opportunity is in places where customer demand is by folks who can't DiY and aren't on an expense account and can't afford Uber/Lyft/taxi/limousine. Places like Trenton, New Jersey where 70% of the households have at most one car as opposed to Chandler where 70% of households have two or more cars. In Chandler, Waymo has to go far and wide ("50 sq. mi.) to find customers for which the Waymo One service is indeed better than what they already enjoy. In cities like Trenton, those folks exist in a compact 8 sq. mi. area. Seems like a no-brainer that Waymo Two should be in Trentons. Alain
SmartDrivingCars
Pod-Cast Episode 232, Zoom-Cast Episode 232 w Steven Shladover
F. Fishkin, Sept. 4 "Cameras alone aren't enough to get Tesla or anyone else to driverless mobility. So says UC Berkeley's Steven Shladover, a leading autonomous vehicle research engineer. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the need for more regulation from Washington, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota, Motional and more. Watch or listen to Smart Driving Cars Episode 232 and subscribe!"
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
Surging crash-death rates that took hold with pandemic continued this year, according to new estimate
I. Duncan, Sep 2, "The first quarter of 2021 was the deadliest start of a year on the nation's roads in over a decade, with car crashes killing an estimated 8,730 people from January to March, according to a new estimate from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
The numbers indicate that a surge in road deaths that began with the coronavirus pandemic has continued into this year, although they offer some early glimmer of hope that unusually high fatality rates might be beginning to come down.
NHTSA said the ongoing high death rate appears to have been caused by drivers continuing to take risks by speeding, getting behind the wheel after drinking or using drugs, and not wearing seat belts. To coincide with the new estimates, NHTSA on Thursday released an updated version of a guide to improving highway safety, largely focusing on encouraging more-conscientious behavior on the roads and deterring risk-taking..." Read more See NHTSA Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for the First Quarter of 2021 announcement. Roughly a 25% increase in death rate for Q1s (from ~1.0/100MxVMT to 1.26/100MxVMT. Seems as if NHTSA is going to have to do more than "... release(d) an updated version of a guide ...". There are now so many speeders and texters out there and there aren't enough traffic cops to do anything about it. If driving is really a privilege, then NHTSA will need to insist that technology be used to enforce the common good associated with that privilege. Alain
This letter is to inform you that the Office of Defects Investigation...
G. Mango, Aug. 31, "This letter is to inform you that the Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened a Preliminary Evaluation (PE21-020) to investigate crashes involving first responder scenes and vehicles manufactured by Tesla, Inc. (Tesla) that were operating in either Autopilot or Traffic Aware Cruise Control leading up to the incident, and to request certain information.
This office is aware of twelve incidents where a Tesla vehicle operating in either Autopilot orTraffic Aware Cruise Control struck first responder vehicles / scenes, leading to injuries and vehicle damage. In each case, NHTSA has reviewed the incidents with Tesla. A list of the twelve incidents has been included for reference.
Please repeat the applicable request verbatim above each response. After Tesla's response to each request, identify the source of the information and indicate the last date the information was gathered....
Tesla's response to this letter, in duplicate, together with a copy of any confidentiality request, must be submitted to this office by Friday, October 22, 2021." Read more Whew! Unfortunately it doesn't seem to ask anything about the Automated Emergency Braking System and doesn't explicitly ask how Tesla treats stationary objects that are detected ahead. Can't wait to see their response. I sure hope NHTSA makes it available to all ASAP without us needing to file Freedom of Information requests. Alain
'A very big deal': Federal safety regulator takes aim at Tesla Autopilot
R. Mitchell, Aug 31, "Recent moves by the top U.S. automotive safety watchdog could change the way Tesla markets its cars' advanced driver-assist capabilities -- or force the company to recall the software altogether." Read more Elon's "ace in the hole" here is his "over-the-air-updating" capability whereby he can readily and inexpensively satisfy NHTSA demands. He can also afford to give owners a choice of a refund or a software upgrade/fix. The "80/20 rule" would suggest that 80% will happily take the upgrade/fix, even if it includes a rename to "StupidSummon/PayAttention/EmptySelfDriving/..." 😉 Alain
Toyota pauses self-driving 'e-Palette' service after one crashed into an Olympic athlete
A. Hawkins, Aug 27, "Toyota has halted its autonomous shuttle service in Tokyo's Olympic village after one of its vehicles collided with a visually impaired athlete, Reuters reported. Technically, the vehicle was not driving autonomously but was under manual control at the time of the incident.
Toyota had been operating dozens of its "e-Palette" shuttles during the Olympics as a demonstration of a far-out concept the company first showed off in 2018. Back then, the automaker said its e-Palettes, which are modular battery-electric vehicles without traditional controls like steering wheels or pedals, could operate either as ride-hailing shuttles or mobile retail spaces.
Toyota saw the Olympics as an opportunity to demonstrate its new technology. The boxy vehicles were being used by athletes and Olympics staff for months prior to the start of the summer games.
But that came to an end this week, after one of the vehicles slammed into an athlete that was set to compete in the Paralympic Games. According to Reuters, the shuttle was at a T-intersection when it turned into the athlete at a speed of 1-2 kilometers-per-hour. The vehicle was under manual control at the time, with a human operator using the joystick control. The athlete was taken to a nearby medical center for treatment and was able to walk back to their residence.
Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda acknowledged the crash in a video posted to YouTube. "It shows that autonomous vehicles are not yet realistic for normal roads," he said, according to Reuters.." Read more Maybe it is time for these vehicles to stop being Circus Sideshows with human overseers using joysticks. Alain
Is a self-driving car smarter than a seven-month-old?
Sep. 4, "BY THE AGE of seven months, most children have learned that objects still exist even when they are out of sight. Put a toy under a blanket and a child that old will know it is still there, and that he can reach underneath the blanket to get it back. This understanding, of "object permanence", is a normal developmental milestone, as well as a basic tenet of reality.
It is also something that self-driving cars do not have. And that is a problem. Autonomous vehicles are getting better, but they still don't understand the world in the way that a human being does. For a selfdriving car, a bicycle that is momentarily hidden by a passing van is a bicycle that has ceased to exist.
This failing is basic to the now-widespread computing discipline that has arrogated to itself the slightly misleading moniker of artificial intelligence (AI). Current AI works by building up complex statistical models of the world, but it lacks a deeper understanding of reality. How to give AI at least some semblance of that understanding—the reasoning ability of a seven month-old child, perhaps—is now a matter of active research..." Read more
Hmmmm... Interesting and well worth reading article; however, it is not quite the case that the automated driving perception systems don't have an understanding of "object permanence".
I must admit that back in the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge, we took "object permanence" to an extreme that actually killed us. We went through great care to place a position vector as well as a velocity vector on every object we encountered. Unfortunately, we failed to include the one line of code to forget the objects after a sufficiently long period of time. So, you guessed it... after 9.8 miles and the accumulation of the description, position and velocity labels on about 250,000 objects, we blew out memory and were disqualified. We went back to our vehicle, Prospect Eleven (that we had abandoned under a large solar panel, UNLV), during Fall Break three weeks later. We discovered our memory leak, fixed one line of code, and basically ran the entire 2005 course, the 2004 course and Beer Bottle pass 3 more times, once at night in the dark (We basically had only GPS and vision sensors, no LiDAR (couldn't afford it)).
What we learned was that "forgetting/moving-on" is also important. Talk with any hockey goal tender. 😉 Alain
Global Plug-In Car Sales July 2021: Almost Doubled To 480,000
M. Kane, Sep. 2, "3 million new plug-ins were sold so far this year. Global passenger plug-in electric car sales increased in July by 94% year-over-year to about 480,000, which is one of the best monthly results ever. The market share amounted to 7.1%, and two-third of the plug-ins happen to be all-electric.
Plug-in market share improved to 7.1%, including:
BEVs: about 318,000 and 4.7% share
PHEVs: about 162,500 and 2.4% share
Total: 480,506 (up 94% year-over-year) and 7.1% share "
The top-selling models for the month were: Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV (30,706), Tesla Model 3 (18,811) and Tesla Model Y (14,660), Volkswagen ID.4 (14,660) and BYD Qin Plus (PHEV) (9,127).Read more
Hmmmm... Not bad! Alain
Los Angeles is about to get its first robotaxi test fleet
R. Mitchell, Aug 31, "If you've driven around the Bay Area lately, there's a good chance you've spotted a driverless test car sharing the highway, a whirling lidar array atop its roof. Not so much in the Southland. Little robot car testing has been conducted in Southern California to date.
That will change soon. Driverless car technology company Motional announced Tuesday that it will deploy "in the near term" a test fleet of new Hyundai Ioniq 5 electric cars in and around Los Angeles, fitted with its robotaxi technology...
Asked what special challenges Los Angeles will present to robot car development, Iagnemma's answer was unsurprising: "congestion."
He added that because Los Angeles boasts such a colorful car culture, "it's gotta be a place where you can watch a robotaxi cruise by."" Read more Amazing... I guess that these companies do believe that they are Circus Sideshow Attractions. Not about their mobility opportunities, but their freakishness. The reason for congestion in LA is because essentially everyone is a DiY. Good luck at being an early disrupter in that market. Alain
Why Are Uber And Lyft So Expensive Right Now?
N. Spector, Aug 23, "In mid-June, I embarked on my first air travel since before the pandemic. I planned to just take an Uber to the airport, figuring it was worth it to spare my husband the stress of taking time off work to drive me. Then I saw the estimated cost for the ride: $89 — to drive 10 miles. I'm used to rolling my eyes at inflated fares during rush hour and late nights, but this was more than double the pre-tip amount I'd paid before the pandemic...." Read more At some point the investors are going to stop subsidizing your ride-hail and economic realities will prevail. Alain
Here's the robotaxi that will be available on the Lyft app in 2023
A. Hawkins, Aug 31, "Motional, the autonomous vehicle company that is a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, revealed more details about its forthcoming robotaxi as well as some of the first images of the vehicle. The company is also working with Lyft and says that by 2023, customers in certain cities will be able to hail rides in this vehicle using the Lyft app..." Read more OK. But will it be available in sufficient quantity in time to save Lyft? Again, for Lyft/Uber to justify their market cap, their platform has to serve more than 10x the number of person trips they currently serve or get 10x the revenue to Lyft, post an adequate take by the gig worker, from each person trips they currently serve. Alain
[Andreessen
Horowitz-backed autonomous-driving software firm Cyngn files for IPO](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3737326-andreessen-horowitz-backed-autonomous-driving-software-firm-cyngn-files-for-ipo)
J. Kronenberg, Sep. 3, "Cyngn (NYSE:CYN), an autonomous-driving software firm backed by Andreessen Horowitz and other A-list venture-capital firms, filed paperwork Friday for an IPO at an unspecified valuation.
The company wrote in an S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it aims to raise some $36M from the initial public offering, although that's likely just a placeholder number.
Cyngn (CYN) has reportedlyraised at least $185M over its lifespan, last staging a Series C round in 2015 at an undisclosed valuation.... " Read more Be sure to look atin the S-1, and its pivot. Alain
Tesla's AI Day helps in the battle to recruit AI talent
F. Fishkin, Sep 3, "Techstination, your destination for gadgets and gear. I'm Fred Fishkin. Tesla's AI Day this year was designed to help recruit more of the best people working in the field to come work for the company. In the view of Princeton's University's faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering, Alain Kornhauser, Musk succeeded in delivering the message. On Episode 230 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast, he was joined by Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal, author of POWER PLAY…Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century..
"The fight for AI talent in Silicon Valley is brutal. There's just not enough of these really smart people who can do these kinds of things."
And Tesla's AI Day gave Musk and his team a chance to show why the company is the place to be to help create the future of mobility. And while at it…he promised to deliver a humanoid robot prototype…in 2022. You can find us at Techstination.com. I'm Fred Fishkin." Read more
Hmmmm... . Listen... Alain
Victim of Tesla crash in Texas had alcohol level exceeding legal limit
Reuters, Sep. 3, "One of the two victims of a fatal crash involving a Tesla car in Texas had a blood-alcohol level that exceeded the legal driving limit, according to an autopsy report.
No one was found in the driver's seat in the April accident where a Model S caught fire after hitting a tree, killing the two people in the car, according to the police at the time.
William Varner, who was found in the back left passenger seat, had 0.151 g/100mL of ethanol - grain alcohol - detected in his blood after his death, according to the report by Harris County Institute of Forensic Sciences...." Read more
Hmmmm... Certainly not an excuse for jumping in the back seat; however, given all of the driving assist technology, Teslas should not be running into trees with or without someone in the driver's seat! Before Elon is allowed to release anything called "Full Self Driving" until he has to over-the-air-update a "Won't Cash Into Stationary Objects Ahead" (like trees, boulders. emergency vehicles with flashing lights, ...) Alain
Audi's Grandsphere concept EV is a self-driving living room on wheels
J. Fingas, Sep. 2,"If Audi's Skysphere concept is a driver's car with an autonomous option, the company's follow-up is the polar opposite. The automaker has introduced a Grandsphere concept electric sedan that uses Level 4 self-driving (full autonomy in limited conditions) to help you avoid driving "whenever possible" — this is a luxurious living room that just happens to let you take the wheel...." Read more
Hmmmm... Don't hold your breath. It's a concept car (aka Circus 'Level 4' Freak show). Alain
Culdesac Tempe: A Car-Free Neighborhood
Tempe Arizona, "The post-car real estate development company known as Culdesac approached Opticos Design to apply their expertise in walkable communities and Missing Middle Housing to the first car-free neighborhood designed for shared mobility and built from scratch in the United States... " ..." Read more
Hmmmm... . OK Tell me more... In Arizona none the less. However, the image does show a bunch of cars. 😎 Alain
NASA RAM Report – The Foundation for a Rural Air Revival
K. Pyle, June 17, "As with so many of the developments in telecom and broadband, rural areas may provide the proving ground for the next generation of air travel. This is one of the important implications of NASA's recently issued report, Regional Air Mobility (RAM).
Investors, community leaders, policymakers, industry, and the general public are the target audience for this aptly named report. Although published by NASA, the authors hail from academia, the aviation industry, capital markets, and, of course, NASA. In short, the report shows how the nation's existing 5,000 airfields provide a launching point for low-cost electric aviation..." Read more
Hmmmm... . We can't be left behind here. Why not??? Alain
C'mon Man!(These folks didn't get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
More On....
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Poser'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines" . See slides, See video
Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain
4thAnnual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.
Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April 18, "It's time to hit the start button," is Fred Fishkin's succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times' Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen: Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to "the Trentons of the World."
Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,....." Read more
Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle's Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
15th Session Making it Happen - Part One: Elected Officials' Role in Creating a Welcoming Environment in the Trentons of this World
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
Michael Sena's Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021"Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the "Trentons" of this World"
Orf467F20_FinalReport "Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System" Kornhauser & He, March 2021 "AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative"
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Fall 2021 Live in Person November 2 (evening) -> 4, 2021
On the More Technical Side http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean's AV Research Group at U of Texas
and The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, "Recordings from the conference: Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: (Cybersecurity): https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY
Session 3: (Automated Driving Systems): https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc
Session 4: (Communications for ADS) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso Read more
Hmmmm... Russ, thank you for sharing! Alain
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 231, Zoom-Cast Episode 231 w Michael Sena, Creator of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Aug 27, "What's wrong with the concept of building electric vehicles on a skateboard type platform? Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus Tesla, Waymo and more. And the next Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit is on the way. Watch or listen…and subscribe! Or listen."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 230, Zoom-Cast Episode 230 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
F. Fishkin, Aug 21, "Teslas, Humanoids and Elevators! What Elon Musk and Tesla delivered at AI Day 2021 was insight into the company's remarkable technology and that may boost recruiting efforts. So says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser who is joined by co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal, author of POWER PLAY… Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. AI Day, the NHTSA investigation and Elon Musk hops on the elevator on Episode 230 of Smart Driving Cars!
Or you can listen to Episode 230 of Smart Driving Cars on Tesla's AI Day and more with guest Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal ..author of POWER PLAY... Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 229, Zoom-Cast Episode 229 w/Russ Mitchell, Los Angeles Times
F. Fishkin, Aug 18, "With the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration having opened an investigation into Tesla autopilot crashes involving emergency vehicles…Los Angeles Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the issues facing Tesla and other vehicle makers."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 228, Zoom-Cast Episode 228 Planes, Trains & Automobiles
F. Fishkin, Aug 13, "Planes, trains and automobiles. From battery powered electric light rail to the confusion over the difference between driver assistance and self driving to Amazon's new 1.5 billion dollar U.S. air cargo hub…the focus is on the latest in mobility. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 228 of Smart Driving Cars. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 226, Zoom-Cast Episode 226 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
F. Fishkin, July 22, "The Wall Street Journal's Tim Higgins has a new book arriving August 3rd titled POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. You can bet it's a lively discussion with Tim on the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or listen.. https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-226-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 225, Zoom-Cast Episode 225 w/Kevin Biesty, Deputy Director for Policy @ Arizona DoT
F. Fishkin, July 22, "Chandler, Arizona is the one place where paying customers can take advantage of driverless robo-taxis (from Waymo) to get where they are going. How did that happen? What does the future hold? Kevin Biesty, Arizona's Deputy Director for Policy at the Department of Transportation, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for an in depth discussion. Plus.. Ford, Argo, Lyft, Tesla, Mercedes & more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 224, Zoom-Cast Episode 224 w/Selika Josiah Talbot, Principal, Autonomous Vehicle Consulting
F. Fishkin, July 19, "Does there need to be a White House appointed autonomous and electric vehicle czar to open up new mobility possibilities for all? That's the view of Selika Josiah Talbott..a government veteran who now heads Autonomous Vehicle Consulting and lectures at American University. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a deeper look at how the technology can be deployed to improve lives.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 223, Zoom-Cast Episode 223 w/Richard Mudge, Compass Transp. & Baruch Feigenbaum, Reason Foundation
F. Fishkin, July 15, "Can Tesla (and others) make automatic emergency braking work? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser continues his push and is joined by the Reason Foundation's Baruch Feigenbaum and Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge along with co-host Fred Fishkin to explore this week'ss Transportation Research Board sessions. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 222, Zoom-Cast Episode 222
F. Fishkin, July 11, "Is it time for autopilot to not break the law? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser says yes. And if technology can save lives, prevent injuries and crashes shouldn't it? Plus Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, Waymo, VW and more on Episode 222 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221, Zoom-Cast Episode 221 w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox
F. Fishkin, July 1, "With Zoox the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company's vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220 w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times
F. Fishkin, July 1, "Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That's a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill...who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that...plus Tesla...autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 219, Zoom-Cast Episode 219 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, June 29 , "Why couldn't a smart driving car prevent Alain's crash with a deer? How important is exact location for highly automated driving? And NHTSA wants reports on all automated vehicle system crashes. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 218, Zoom-Cast Episode 218 w/Xinfeng Le, Waymo Product Manager
F. Fishkin, June 10 , "Have questions about Waymo's partnership with JB Hunt to test autonomous trucks in Texas? So do we and Waymo's Product Manager, Xinfeng Le joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to provide answers. Plus.. Waymo raises 2 and a half billion dollars, MacKenzie Scott gives away billions, start-up Waabi comes out of stealth, Argo AI plans an IPO and more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 217, Zoom-Cast Episode 217 w/Christorpher Mims, Columnist, Wall Street Journal
F. Fishkin, June 7 , "Are self-driving cars still decades ahead? Wall Street Jopurnal columnist and author Christopher Mims joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the progress and roadblocks. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, the dramatic rise in road deaths during Covid and more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 216, Zoom-Cast Episode 216 w/Michael Sena, editor The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 28 , "The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming Into Focus. That's on top in the June edition of The Dispatcher. From Sweden, publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus better batteries, May Mobility, Tesla and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 215, Zoom-Cast Episode 215 w/Cade Metz, Correspondent, NY Times & Ken Pyle, editor, Viodi.com
F. Fishkin, May 27 , "The Costly Pursuit of Self Driving Cars Continues On and On and On. That's the headline of a NY Times story this week. The reporter, Cade Metz, also the author of a new book on artificial intelligence, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Ken Pyle of Viodi View.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 214, Zoom-Cast Episode 214
F. Fishkin, May 23 , "An interview with the chief engineer behind Ford's F150 Lightning EV truck...Waymo shares rider stories and the AFL-CIO tells Congress autonomous vehicles should be required to have human operators. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America's Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , "The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America's Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX,
Tesla, #GM,
TuSimple and
more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too. "..
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212 w/Ken Pyle
F. Fishkin, May 8 , "Where does Waymo go from here? Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles? Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211 w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 1 , "There's plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense...and what doesn't. Plus #Tesla,#Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. ..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210 w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron'23
F. Fishkin, April 26 , "Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from Elon Musk's The Boring Company. Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton's Alain .."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209 w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.
F. Fishkin, April , "The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208 w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo
F. Fishkin, April 18, "What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo...some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207 w/Selika Josiah Talbott
F. Fishkin, April 10 , "When a driverless vehicle crashes...what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206 w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
F. Fishkin, April 2, "When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles? How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome? Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205 w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher. President, MLSena Consulting
F. Fishkin, March 26, "Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities. So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more...on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, ".With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker's new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table...and a look at the future of auto insurance.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser F. Fishkin, March 13, ".GM's move to transform auto insurance through OnStar Insurance: Is it a win, win for all? Is adaptive cruise control prompting some drivers to speed? And what does Tesla really mean by "full self driving"? Just some of the questions tackled in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202, Zoom-Cast Episode 202 President & CEO, RoadDB
F. Fishkin, March 3, "When will we be able to purchase cars that can largely drive themselves? It may not be long...but don't expect to vacate the driver's seat. That's the view of entrepreneur, tech pioneer and RoadDB CEO Russ Shields. He takes an in depth look at where we are and where we're headed with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201, Zoom-Cast Episode 201 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Feb. 26, "Smarter cars need smarter assembly...and location matters. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at that, politics, climate and carmakers...plus Tesla, Velodyne, Foxconn and more.." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200, Zoom-Cast Episode 200 w/Edwin Olsen, CEO, May Mobility F. Fishkin, Feb. 22, "How May Mobility is building confidence in autonomous transportation and creating a road map for growth through the pandemic and beyond. CEO and co-founder Edwin Olson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more."
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
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Not So Easy to Pop a Top Hat on a BEV Skateboard, plus more
M. Sena, Issue (08-10) , Aug. 25," Some of you are fans of Douglas Adamsand will enjoy this month's Musings. Sometimes a little humor helps to get a serious point across better than trying to be seriously persuasive.
The lead article in this issue is the first part of a two-part series. This month I discuss why there is still a chance for the Western automotive OEMs to stay in the game of manufacturing cars, rather than being relegated to assemblers of battery electric vehicle components. Next month I examine why the position they have held for the past century, King of the Hill, is about to be challenged.
In the second article is focused on the need for cooperation between robot and driver in highly automated driving. If Tesla had done a better job on this score it could have avoided being called on the carpet by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. We'll see where that leads.
Dispatch Central, as usual, attempts to have something for everyone. I've called the European Commission out for a major miss in its intelligent speed assistance regulation, not for passing it but for not making it as robust as it should be.
Yes, I did use these summer months to start work on a follow-up to the Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit, and I did enjoy a very pleasant summer here in Sweden. I hope you enjoyed your summer as well wherever and however you spent it. M. Sena"
Hmmmm... Enjoy & Learn this month's Dispatcher ( especially how to "... turn... pig's ear into a silk purse...; no-brainers (P. 17); Some interesting Statistics on World energy & BEVs (P.18, thank you Fred Dryer), a possible upside for coal mines (P. 19), why 'Level 3' is even less probable than 'Level 5' which is reached only 'in the limit as time goes to infinity' and Evolutionary Domesticity (P. 29) and the answer is '42' ! Listen/watch to the Pod/Zoom-Cast 231 with Michael, Fred and me centered on this issue. Alain
August 20, 2021 blue; text-decoration: none;">
L4 Autonomous Truck Driving will not be so simple for TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: TSP) Why we believe the Company is All Smoke and Mirrors
Grizzly Research, Aug 10, " TSP is the one of the latest hot China based IPO of an ambitious autonomous driving technology company, but we believe the company has systematically lied and misrepresented key information. ..." Read more
Hmmmm... Devastating. Grizzly is focused on the short side, so read carefully. Bias may exist here.
My "back of the envelope": Looks like TuSimple is expecting $0.35/mile revenue for their AV stack on Class 8 trucks. This is 50% of professional driver costs. Fine if you can eliminate the driver. Not so fine if an attendant is still there.
No way anyone can really begin to eliminate a driver on any stretch of the US interstate highway system for at least 2 years where there is any substantial volume of trucks. The "2 years" assumes that "attended" operation has encountered "few" disengagements, all of which have been appropriately resolved and there have been no "spectacular " crashes by anyone involving Driverless Trucks in North America. ("Attended" means that there is at least one professional driver overseeing the "driverless" operation. "few"... you pick a number greater than zero. Disengagements... the professional driver intervened so as to avoid a "spectacular" crash. "Spectacular" crash is one that goes viral (Herzberg/Fukushima/Chernobyl/Diana). "2 years" ... pick a number....)
Point is..., everyone is still in a substantial testing phase that has similar duration to Waymo's/GM-Cruise/ Ford-Argo testing phases (5+ years) which necessarily precedes market introduction which then involves its own ramp-up phase (which hasn't been going well for Waymo and the others haven't even started.) So pick a number. During that time, TuSimple's investors will need to pick up the tab for all of the people and all of the "liDars", etc. used in testing and marketing initiatives before they can recognize any substantial $0.35/truck-mile revenue (minus any costs of the "AI-driver" software/sensor/processor/communications stack.. pick a number. In the initial ramp up of sales, this number can easily be greater than $0.35/mile).
TSP better be really good! Plus, they can't afford any slip ups, nor have anyone else crash; else, Grizzly is going to do very well thank you. Alain
August 13, 2021 CMU's Posner Lays Track for Future of Rail Transit M Henninger, Aug 11, "A bright orange, battery-powered train breaks the lush green stillness of Rockhill Furnace, Pennsylvania, as it traverses track originally laid in 1876. At the helm in a bright green/yellow safety vest, Meg Richards tweaks the throttle and brakes as the two-car train passes by baseball fields, crosses streets and completes the day's test run.
Along for the ride, Henry Posner III, the chairman of Railroad Development Corporation (RDC) and an adjunct instructor at Carnegie Mellon University, sits eager to demonstrate his vision for a rail-based mass transit system in the United States. The original concept for Pop-Up Metro — a battery-powered, modular train that can be inserted onto existing infrastructure — evolved in parallel with his Department of History class, The American Railroad-Decline and Renaissance in the Era of Deregulation.
"There are more possibilities for railroads than you might think," said Posner, who together with his wife, University Trustee Anne Molloy, is also a generous benefactor of CMU. "A lot of urban areas in this country have underutilized freight lines that could also support transit service. People might not have considered these opportunities because it's been perceived as too expensive, too lengthy and too risky. With Pop-Up Metro, you can do that project quickly on a demonstration basis. You don't have to spend $100 million."..." Read more
Hmmmm... Watch video. Fantastic for those not ready for SmartDrivingCars and those that are, inducing yours truly. Alain August 6, 2021
DECISION AUTHORIZING DEPLOYMENT OF DRIVERED AND DRIVERLESS AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE PASSENGER SERVICE CPUC, Nov 23, '20, "This decision creates two new autonomous vehicle programs that authorize fare collection (deployment programs), one for drivered autonomous vehicles and the other for driverless autonomous vehicles. Among other requirements, applicants to the existing driverless pilot program and the new driverless deployment program must submit Passenger Safety Plans that outline their plans to protect passenger safety for driverless operations.
In addition, the decision establishes four goals that apply to both the existing pilot programs and the new deployment programs; 1.) Protect passenger safety; 2.) Expand the benefits of AV technologies to all of Californians, including people with disabilities; 3.) Improve transportation options for all, particularly for disadvantaged communities and low-income communities; and 4.) Reduce greenhouse gas emissions, criteria air pollutants, and toxic air contaminants, particularly in disadvantaged communities. The Commission will collect data to monitor permit holders’ progress toward each of the goals...." Read more
Hmmmm... Sorry for not reporting this sooner, and thank you Doug Coventry for bringing it to my attention. It is must reading for any jurisdiction making regulations regarding the provision of autonomousTaxi mobility.
Its four goals are laudable, especially the 3rd, even if it may end up violating part of the 4th. Moreover, the clauses of the 3rd should be re-ordered to be: ... Improve transportation options for disadvantaged communities, low income communities and those with disabilities, and, if possible, for all... This also reduces the goals to 3 important ones, ... safety, the environment and improved mobility for those that have been left behind by the personal automobile
Of course, one wants to improve mobility for those that drive their own personal car; however, that is a entrenched well-served set of customers that are not readily going to flip from driving their car to something that isn't really better and may largely be perceived as no cigar. Certainly, the public sector should in no way use public resources to give car drivers yet another good but inferior choice as was done with many public transportation investments that actually provide inferior mobility to those that were to be attract as customers. These systems are rebuffed by many that they were intended to be taken off the road for the trips they already make, let alone deliver quality-of-life benefits by providing mobility to new places that they couldn't previously access.
A properly designed Operational Design Domain focused on from and where low income communities want to go is, to my mind, where the best opportunity exits for these safe, environmentally responsible systems . In such ODDs these driverless aTaxis can actually improve quality-of-life; and thus, deserve accommodation and promotion by public agencies such as CPUC. Alain
July 30, 2021
Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Charged With Lying to Investors C. . Ramey, July 29, "Trevor Milton, the founder of Nikola Corp. and onetime executive chairman of the electric-truck startup, was indicted Thursday on securities-fraud charges for what prosecutors said was a scheme to mislead investors about the company's product and technology development.
Mr. Milton faces two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud, according to the indictment. The U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan, which brought the charges, is set to make an announcement about the indictment on Thursday morning.
A spokesman for Mr. Milton didn't immediately comment. Last year, Mr. Milton said on Twitter that he intended to defend himself against "false allegations". He resigned from Nikola in September as concerns mounted about the startup darlingthat had attracted backing from some of the industry's biggest names.
Nikola wasn't charged. The company said that Mr. Milton hasn't been involved in the company's operations or communications since his resignation. "Nikola has cooperated with the government throughout the course of its inquiry," the company's statement said. "We remain committed to our previously announced milestones and timelines and are focused on delivering Nikola Tre battery-electric trucks later this year from the company's manufacturing facilities."Â..." Read more
Hmmmm... Speaks for itself. Alain
July 23, 2021
Upward Urban & Rural Mobility via Autonomous Mobility K. Pyle, July 19, "It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. The picture Selika Josiah Talbott chose for her virtual backdrop at the recent 2021 TRB Annual Automated Road Transportation Symposium sums up the mobility challenges that urban and rural locales face with existing infrastructure, particularly in low-income areas. Joining Talbott on this panel were experts opining on Talbott's insightful comments about autonomous mobility and its potential to provide upward mobility...." Read more
Hmmmm... Simply a must read. This is the real market for autonomousTaxis (aTaxis). Alain
July 17, 2021 2021 TRB Annual Automated Road Transportation Symposium July 12 -> 15, "..." Read more
Hmmmm...I haven't been able to find a public source for any of the content from the symposium but there were at least three sessions (of the few that I was able to attend) that were really good. One was B-101- An inside Look at Policy-Making for Automated Vehicles, moderated by Baruch Feigenbaum of the Reason Foundation. Pay particular attention to the insights offered by Kevin Biesty of Arizona DoT. So far, no one in the world has done it better.
A second one was B204-Inclusive by Design: Creating an Equitable and Accessible Automated Future, moderated by Charlotte Frei.
The third was Richard Mudge's B402- Shark Tank: Everything from Free Freight to AV for Low-Income Travelers to how many AV Firms will Survive?. (Spoil alert... the answer is . Selika Talbot's presentation was absolutely fantastic. See PodCast/ZoomCast below for a discussion of parts of this session. Fred and I hope to do PodCasts/ZoomCasts with Selika and Kevin in the coming week.
Hopefully TRB will broadly distribute the recorded videos of these and the other sessions. One caution is that even in this community there is substantial confusion introduced over terminology which ends up having people talk by rather than with each other. This was an "Automated Road Transportation" symposium. One aspect of road transportation is the fundamental role of the human driver. It is very different than that of elevators that go from A to B without any direct human driver/operator intervention. The customer only tells the elevator what floor to go to. Everything else in the up/down mobility process is automated within the elevator's Operational Design Domain (which is usually in a shaft, stooping only at designated stopping locations (floors) with centimeter accuracy but only when when sufficient power exists to perform the various operations. (Note: "Level 5 elevators" (operate under any power-available condition) will "never" exist.). It is easy for us to see the phenomenal difference in the societal value that can be achieved in elevators that deliver safe, shared-ride, on-demand 24/7 mobility, indiscriminately to essentially everyone. Unfortunately, precious little of that broad societal value can be achieved unless the elevator's safe operation can be achieved without a human operator/driver.
This is a bang-bang situation. Either you have it or you don't. Coming close doesn't cut it.
It doesn't mean that human operated elevators don't deliver value to individual owners. My neighbor across the street has a dumbwaiter in her house that she and her husband control manually to move things including themselves up and down in their house. Works great. Real value. They both remain capable of performing the manual operations for themselves and if they charge themselves for the labor, they gain that charge so the transaction nets to zero labor cost. charge themselves . While some benefits (comfort & convenience) might be gained by them by automating some of the operating functions, full automation would be silly unless at least some number of neighbors would improve their quality-of-life if only they could easily go up and down in their house. That latent demand for improved quality-of-life does exist in tall buildings. It's been consumed in a large part because elevators became operatorless and not just operator assisted. Shared and not quite door2door shortcomings are endured. 24/7, on-demand, affordable (especially for the rent payer on the "14th" floor. So much so that they just pick up the tab for the elevators that deliver accessibility to/from the "14th floor") are the fundamental mobility attributes that totally dominate the competition for mobility afforded by the stairwell. Without the elimination of the operator/driver, the 24/7, on-demand, affordable trifecta is not deliverable to anybody.
Way too often during the Symposium automation that explicitly requires the continued presence of a driver and is only at best a comfort & convenience feature as ascribed benefits that accrue only for systems that achieve safe driverless operation. There is no getting away from it, automation that assist drivers is radically different than automation that replaces drivers. Hopefully next year we can have 2 AV conferences. One that focuses on automation to assist human drivers and one that focuses on technology and deployments that replaces the driver.
As far as connectivity goes, we need to realize that it is a nice2have, not a need2have. Since it can only deliver value among pairs of adopters, it struggles getting started by itself when it needs to find a partner. Unfortunately, road vehicles have performed well for more than 100 years without much connectivity and automation at this point is saying: you aren't much help and we can't afford to carry you along. Alain July 11, 2021
Tesla Says Autopilot Makes Its Cars Safer. Crash Victims Say It Kills. Neal Boudette, July 5, " Benjamin Maldonado and his teenage son were driving back from a soccer tournament on a California freeway in August 2019 when a truck in front of them slowed. Mr. Maldonado flicked his turn signal and moved right. Within seconds, his Ford Explorer pickup was hit by a Tesla Model 3 that was traveling about 60 miles per hour on Autopilot.
A six-second video captured by the Tesla and data it recorded show that neither Autopilot, Tesla's much-vaunted system that can steer, brake and accelerate a car on its own, nor the driver slowed the vehicle until a fraction of a second before the crash..." Read more
Hmmmm... A few comments here: 1. Because of the suit here, hopefully more of the data associated with this crash will be made public. Future crashes such as these seem to be covered by the recent NHTSA standing General Order requiring the data to be released without need of lawyers, assuming Tesla cooperates. 2. Neal (slightly) overstate his plot which clearly shows the Tesla began to decelerate slightly more than a full second before impact. He also doesn't mention what the video clearly shows that the Tesla was "cut-off" by the pickup truck. More over the pickup applied its brakes as it was making the lane change (brake light came on). This brake application may well have been the critical element that made the crash unavoidable. AutoPilot was likely tacking the pickup from at least the 6 seconds before collision point. Tesla must have data on the relative longitudinal speed between the pickup and the Tesla.and it must also have an expected time-to-collision which is a critical measure as to when to kick in the Automated Emergency Braking System. Once again, my main concern here is not (yet) about the performance of AutoPilot, but the performance of Tesla's Automated Emergency Braking System (AEBS). This is a rear-end crash. It is the responsibility of the AEBS to avert these crashes. Seems as if the AEBS did NOT properly anticipate the pick-up's maneuver nor properly monitor time-to-collision. My recommendation here is to improve the AEBS.
3. Comments implying that radar would have been better at identifying the 'cut-off' are questionable. Lane intrusion is only partial until about 3 seconds before impact. Radar does not return lateral relative-speed, only longitudinal relative-speed. Who knows what lag exists in determining lateral speed and the accuracy of that determination. I doubt that either are very good web based on radar. My guess is that image processing at better than 20Hz would do best in this clear situation.
4. Interpretation of the turn signal can only be done with image processing (to my knowledge.)
5. Nothing is reported about any horn actuation (or if autoPilot even uses the horn). The brake application by the pickup may have been an impulsive response to a horn blow by the Tesla.
6. There seems to be no indication by the driver of the pick-up that he saw the Tesla coming.
7. The Tesla data likely also has its closing speed on the panel truck and thus the closing speed of the pick-up to the panel truck. This information may help us to begin to understand the extent to which the pickup was tailgating the panel truck. 8. To me, AutoPilot's main issue is: should it allow "passing on the right" when "passing on the right" is illegal. The reason it is illegal is because it leads to crashes like this one, that is an issue that should be taken up by NHTSA and NTSB. To what extent should any of these automated driving devices engage in "illegal" driving? My current view (subject to change) is: a. Up to 9 mph over is OK. b. Rolling through a stop sign is OK, if it is determined that time to any likely collision is greater than 5 seconds (meaning you must be able to "see" at least 5 seconds away at speed limit +9 (or something similar)
c. Cross double line as long as oncoming traffic has slowed to under 25 mph and has room to proceed by squeezing right (or something like that).
d. Pass on the right as long as all pertinent vehicles in the two lanes are moving at less than 25 mph (or something like that).
Alain
June 28, 2021 How Important is Exact Localization for HAD? M. Sena, July/Aug. '21, "In this issue of The Dispatcher for July and August, I have taken up a subject in the lead article that has been on my list for quite some time. It is of how cars that drive themselves keep themselves on the road while they make their journey to their destination. It turns out that there is a very good reason why Teslas crash and Waymo is running around only in Chandler, Arizona after people who didn't know better promised that there would be completely driverless cars on all roads a decade ago: localization of a moving vehicle is very, very hard, even for a human.
I encourage you to read Musings this month. It's about making the journey to a world without climate change protests, a world where they either won't be necessary or allowed. On most journeys, we have to cross bridges. Sometimes we have to make them ourselves. Think of the article as the first bridge to cross toward a better understanding of the climate change journey.
Dispatch Central contains, as usual, something for everyone. Insurance is addressed in the two main articles. In Bits and Pieces I have added my thoughts on recent events.
This is a double issue, in part because we are going to try to do more this summer than we could do last. But it's also because I need some extra time to work on a follow-up to the Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit with Professor Alain Kornhauser. There was a concrete proposal put forward by Professor Kornhauser during the last session, and many of us who took part in the Summit have committed to try to work on implementing that proposal. Read more
Hmmmm... . Once again an outstanding The Dispatcher. I happen to have a diffent fundamental view on"exact localization" than Michael, many and possibly even everyone else... As usual, I'll take a very self-centered view... I've lived my whole life without knowing (or caring to know) my "exact location". I've been satisfied to know: "sort of... where am I?" but exact...where am I? ... not so much. What troubles me about the "exact where am I" is that this exactness is in some coordinate system. Where is the origin of that coordinate system and is moving? Oh, it's the "center" of the earth?? Or some "reference point". So "exact" is actually, "exact relative to some reference point. Little seems to ever be said about the "exactness" of the reference point, but that may actually be some saving grace about "exact".. it is "exact" relative to some reference point.
I see.. If the reference point is the center of the Universe, then I'd better be really-really precise; else, small small changes mean big-big differences. If the reference is the center of the earth, then I may just need to be really precise; else, small changes mean big differences. However, if the reference point is my nose and I'm trying to stay between two white lines and not hit anything, then the precision to which I need to know where things are may not need to be very precise as long as I have a little bit of leeway and still stay between the lines and leave enough room around the various objects to not hit them.
OK, safe driving requires only knowing where I am relative to objects around me to a moderate level of precision. I can do it in two ways... take the difference between two values: location of object and my location. The farther away the reference point, the more precise they will need to be if precision of the difference is to be maintained. Consequently, if the measurements are relative to my nose, the need for about as small as it can get.
Moreover, any precision data base lacks some "most" important values.. 1. a precise value for my location and 2. a precise value for anything around me that moves (meaning it wasn't at its current location when the HD database was assembled). Required is the ability in real time to locate and track objects relative to me (my nose, the hood ornament of my car, ..) with only some precision These objects and their location aren't included in these precise/HD databases. What is needed is a very reliable means of identifying objects and determining their position and velocity with little latency. This is absolutely necessary;uyr;y necessary for the moving objects, might as well do it also for the stationary objects. Alain
Please don't suggest that one needs an HD map database in order to run their SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping) algorithm. That algorithm needs as input the relative position (sensor observations) of objects . The capability to determine those inputs is all that is needed to do collision avoidance, so don't even bother going through the SLAM computation and certainly don't pay for a reference data set.
May 29, 2021 The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming into Focus M. Sena, June 2021, "...Mobility-as-a-service would provide the business model to tie everything together, perhaps as an extension of your phone/broadband subscription. Private car ownership would soon be a relic of a bygone age.
This is an interesting narrative, but is not a correct one. Even before COVID-19 changed how people have been living outside of China since Friday, the 13th of March 2020, the picture of everything happening in high density cities was a rumor that companies like WEWORK spread to build their houses of cards. ...
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ..
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ... What cities are doing today all over the world is neither providing an adequate service to their citizens nor using the money allocated for transport in a cost-effective way...
Bite the bullet and get private cars off the big city streets
The reasons that people who live in cities began to buy cars was that they needed them to get to their jobs, the ones that began moving out of the cities in the campuses where there were no transit links. Then they needed them to drop off their children to day care centers since both parents worked. Then they needed them to drop off their older children...
As I said, it is not buses that will meet the need. Neither is it roads filled with taxis. There are taxis offering rides in Trenton and Scranton, but they are not replacing buses because they are too expensive and are often unavailable when demand for them is highest. The Uber/Lyft model can be better at meeting demand, but they are still too costly..."
Hmmmm... Enjoy the whole issue. It is enormously well written! Also listen/watch the SDC Pod/Zoom Cast 216- below with Michael. Alain May 22, 2021
Why I Ride with Waymo: Mike Waymo One, May 13, "... I started taking it to work, and after crunching the numbers for gas, maintenance, insurance, upkeep, and owning a depreciating investment, it was pretty much a no-brainer that we really didn't need two cars. I sold off my car and made Waymo my choice for commuting to and from work and for trips my wife and I need to take when the other is using our car..." Read more.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the "easiest" ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
May 8, 2021 Why hasn't Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here's is my theory T. Lee, May 7, "Suburban ride-hailing is a lousy business to be in.
Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver's seat.
And then... nothing. Seven months later, Waymo has neither expanded the footprint of the Phoenix service nor has it announced a timeline for launching in a second city.
It's as if Steve Jobs had unveiled the iPhone, shipped a few thousand phones to an Apple Store in Phoenix, and then didn't ship any more for months; and wouldn't explain why.
Last Friday, two Waymo employees participated in an "ask me anything" thread on the SelfDrivingCars subreddit, a watering hole for self-driving industry insiders. Questions about expansion plans dominated the conversation.
"How are you going to scale?" one redditor asked. "What are the impediments to service expansion at this time?"
The Waymonauts responded with maddening generalities.
"We feel the same urgency to scale quickly that others do, but a ton of work goes into doing it safely," wrote Waymo's Sam Kansara." Read more
Hmmmm... Not at all surprising. Can you imagine trying to be better than one's own Land Rover or Porsche in car country. That is a heavy lift. Making it heavier is the focus on today's most entitled yuppies. That's as bad as the original focus of driverless cars on 1%ers. Waymos are pure and simple mobility machines to get you from/to places horizontally, just as elevators do vertically ... just get you up to the "8th floor". Why are elevators so successful at what they do?... Second best is the stairwell! They win all the time, hands down.
In Chandler, the "stairwell" is your car parked in your garage. You don't even have to go outside in all that heat. Waymo's got to be really good to beat that! Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances "slim-to-none". Not that the car in the garage doesn't have an enormous amount of "excess baggage". Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it. When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car. Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live. That's a challenging market place for Waymo. It's worse than Bing v Google
A better place for Waymo ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service. The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car. Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don't have access to one. Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach "the eighth floor"; which, once they can using Waymo, would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.
Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that's arguably the last place for Waymo to go. However, the census identifies many communities and "inner suburbs" that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household. For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice. Numerous Trenton residents would readily perceive Waymo as the "Google" in their trip mode-choice.
Another note... trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool's gambit. Since Waymos don't misbehave, it is "easy" to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about. Alain
Link to previous SDC eLetters
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
alaink@princeton.edu
609-980-1427 (c)