Saturday Nov. 20, 2021
September 18, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;”>36th edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
A Stanford Proposal Over AI’s ‘Foundations’ Ignites Debate
W. Knight, Sep. 14, “LAST MONTH, STANFORD researchers declared that a new era of artificial intelligence had arrived, one built atop colossal neural networks and oceans of data. They said a new research center at Stanford would build—and study—these “foundational models” of AI. …” Read more Hmmmm… More fundamental than arguing about the term “ foundational” would be to argue about throwing around the term “Artificial Intelligence”. Sure, what’s been “founded” is “artificial”, but is it anywhere near anything deserving the word “intelligence”. Elon’s use of the terms “autoPilot” and “Full Self-driving” to over-promise and over-hype his reality is grade school compared to Stanford’s “foundational Artificial Intelligence”. Maybe this is all fine in Silicon Valley speak, but at some point reality rears its ugly head. Alain
SmartDrivingCars
[Pod-Cast Episode 233](https://anchor.fm/smartdrivingcars/episodes/Smart-Driving-Cars-Episode-233-Making-mobility-happen-in-Europe--Trenton-and-beyond-e17hlb3?fbclid=IwAR1xbB6MtwXTfUMc9cDSO9R4JxL5lN4iZriVN_tQvxLdLndZVeoMtRwFR2o)[,](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-230-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play) [Zoom-Cast Episode 233](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXftLIjz4as)
w [Prof. Adriano Alessandrini](https://www.f6s.com/adrianoalessandrini)at
the U. of
Florence
###
F. Fishkin, Sept. 18 “What will it take to deliver autonomous mobility for all? For one thing, improved road systems, says Professor Adriano Alessandrini at the University of Florence. The author of The Role of Infrastructure for a Safe Transition to Automated Driving joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a spirited discussion on that, plus Waymo and new details on bringing new mobility to New Jersey and the upcoming Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit.”
The
SmartDrivingCars
eLetter,
Pod-Casts,
Zoom-Casts and
Zoom-inars are
made possible
in part by
support from
the Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For
more
information: [www.motoetf.com](https://www.smartetfs.com/). Most funding is
supplied by
Princeton
University's
Department of
Operations
Research &
Financial
Engineering
and Princeton
Autonomous
Vehicle
Engineering
(PAVE)
research
laboratory as
part of its
research
dissemination
initiative
###
5th Annual
SmartDrivingCars
Summit:
Deployment of
High Quality
Affordable
Mobility for
All throughout
New Jersey.
Thursday evening Nov. 18, through . Live (Covid permitting) Trenton, New Jersey. This 5th Summit is inspired by the many levels of public-sector, community and neighborhood welcoming and support that now exists in New Jersey for the deployment of high-quality affordable mobility. Mobility made possible by technology to especially those in New Jersey that, for what ever reason, don’t have access to their own personal car.
As Robin Chase presented in one of her slides in my course this past week, right now, this instant, 180 million Americans, more than 50%, don’t have access to a car. All 16 and under, most above 85, the many too poor, half of two person households with one car… That’s more than 50% of our US population. The mobility equity afforded by this technology can substantially improve the quality-of-life of so many, immediately.
We envision the initial deployment along the lines of whatwas presented at the end of the 4th SDC Summitthis past Spring, in Trenton, the State Capitol, where 70% of the household have access to at most one car. We believe that this is a perfect Operational Design Domain (ODD) to successfully deploy with the opportunity to expand throughout Mercer County and replicate the deployment throughout the State. The welcoming environment now exists in New Jersey to enable a successful Public-Private Partnership to deliver this enhanced mobility to the residents of Trenton and all New Jersians. The 5th Summit will focus directly on the initial phases of this most equitable mobility deployment in Trenton. Alain
The Major Problems Blocking America’s Electric Car Future
D. Yergin, Aug. 31, “…Recently, I asked Wagoner about that conversation. “The focus then was on making the internal combustion engine better,” he replied. “I was asking, ‘If we were starting the industry today, what would be different?’”
A pretty clear
answer about
how different
came earlier
this month
from President
Joe Biden when
he issued an
executive
order setting
out the goal
that "50
percent of all
new passenger
cars and light
vehicles sold
in 2030"
should be
electric. In
the order, he
instructed
government
agencies to
implement
regulatory
policies to
achieve that
goal. "There's
a vision of
the future
that is now
beginning to
happen," said
the president.
This vision
clearly does
not involve
making the
internal
combustion
engine
better....
The third challenge involves the public — the people who buy automobiles….” Read more Hmmmm… Amazing… This article assumes that electricity that goes through the chargers into the batteries that requires all that mining, transport and processing to capture that electricity and trickle it out as we are leisurely going to grandma’s house, magically appears. Where does electricity come from? How is it manufactured, by whom, with what equipment. What is produced today has persistent customers that aren’t going to go away.
All of our nice ways (solar, wind, hydro and nuclear) to make electricity (electricity is made) are at capacity and we are still using bad ways (coal) and not so bad ways (natural gas) to serve existing customers.
It was hoped
that better
efficiency and
more makers of
the nice ways
could ween out
the bad and
not so bad;
however, Hydro
is capped by:
only so much
water falls so
far, and
"everyone" is
afraid of
nuclear. That
places the
burden
directly on
solar &
wind to make
the
electricity
that's now
made from
coal.
A ">10x"
improvements
in solar &
wind is needed
to replace the
bad ways
(coal) and
another
">10x" to
replace
natural gas as
a maker of
electricity.
And we haven't
begun
replacing the
gasoline with
electricity
that produces
our mobility.
To do that is
going to
require
another 2
">10x"s.
(The energy
required to
move us is
approximately
equal to all
the energy
procured by
electricity
today. (There
are many
details here
having to do
with rejected
energy).
Moreover, the
use of the
nice ways to
replace the
existing
bad/not so bad
ways does not
require any
change by any
customer.
They've been
using
electricity to
do x,y,z and
the new
electrons from
the new
">10x" nice
ways is
exactly the
same. They''
never know the
difference
Not so when
replacing
petroleum with
electricity.
One also needs
a new way to
create the
mobility that
the petroleum
was delivering
to its
customers
consuming
mobility. A
whole new
layer is
needed (the
EV). So maybe
for this
challenge we
should be
focusing on
"making the
internal
combustion
engine
better",
certainly
until we get a
lot better at
solar and
wind, else we
won't be able
to turn off
those coal and
natural gas
plants for a
very long
time.
Use of the 5.850-5.925 GHz Band
A Rule by the Federal Communications Commission on 05/03/2021, “C. ITS in the 5.895-5.925 GHz Band
25. To promote
the most
effective use
of the upper
30 megahertz
of spectrum in
the 5.9 GHz
band, the
Commission
determined
that the ITS
service should
be based on
use of one
technology,
and concluded
that C-V2X
technology
would provide
the best means
of achieving
its goals for
ITS in the
coming years.
In the First
Report and
Order, the
Commission
provided
technical
flexibility to
enable ITS
licensees
currently
using
DSRC-based
technology to
operate in
this
30-megahertz
ITS band until
the time ITS
services must
operate using
C-V2X
technology.
Because the
Commission
believed that
many, if not
most, of the
active ITS
licensees
would want to
transition to
C-V2X
technology as
soon as
possible to
speed
development
and deployment
of ITS
services, it
decided to
permit,
through its
waiver
process, the
deployment of
C-V2X
technology
during the
transition
period in a
manner that
would not
interfere with
existing
DSRC-based
operations...
[Read more](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/05/03/2021-08802/use-of-the-5850-5925-ghz-band) Hmmmm...An
important
ruling that I
had missed.
Alain
I’m a Lyft Driver. My Passengers Act Like I’m Part of the App
P. Jakubowicz,
Sep 4,
"...What
disturbs me
more is how
experiencing
life through
apps may
prompt us to
reframe our
experiences as
something
different from
what they are,
into
experiences
abstracted
from objective
reality. A
layer is
created
through which
empathy and
care don't
necessarily
pass. That
layer is a
product of
using services
designed to
make our lives
easier, but it
also
disconnects us
from each
other. In my
case, I felt
as if I was
seeing how
passengers
would act if
they were in
an autonomous
car...." [Read more](https://www.wired.com/story/im-a-lyft-driver-my-passengers-act-like-im-part-of-the-app/#intcid=_wired-bottom-recirc_e17b22c5-dc75-4cbe-8d47-7ccacae50192_similar2-3-reranked-by-vidi) Hmmmm...
Very
interesting in
many ways with
serious
implications
about the
sociology
challenges of
aTaxis (and
Siri/Alexa/.../ourselves).
Alain
Tesla will make sure you are a good driver before giving you access to Full Self-Driving Beta
F. Lambert,
Sep 17, "Elon
Musk said that
Tesla will use
its telemetry
data to make
sure customers
are "good"
drivers before
allowing them
to access its
Full
Self-Driving
Beta software.
This is a
tricky
situation
since those
customers
already paid
for the
software.
Last week,
Tesla started
pushing its
new Full
Self-Driving
(FSD) Beta v10
software
update to its
early access
fleet.
Tesla FSD Beta
enables Tesla
vehicles to
virtually
drive
themselves
both on
highways and
city streets,
but it is
still
considered a
level 2 driver
assist since
it requires
driver
supervision at
all times. The
driver remains
responsible
for the
vehicle, and
needs to keep
their hands on
the steering
wheel and be
ready to take
control.... "
[Read more](https://electrek.co/2021/09/17/tesla-make-sure-good-driver-before-giving-access-full-self-driving-beta/) Hmmmm...
Yup! A very
tricky
situation.
Since it is a
"beta"
version, then
he can do
that, but at
some point
Tesla has to
deliver to its
customers what
was sold to
them. It may
well be
cheaper, and
better, to
refund all
customers and
start the
sales process
over again.
The second
time around
Tesla can
ensure that
customers
realize that
they must
remain
vigilant and
they are
responsible
for any mishap
that might
occur. At the
same time,
change the
name so that
the driver's
responsibility
is crystal
clear. This
is actually a
"winning"
strategy
because Tesla
has gotten a
tremendous
amount of
buzz; folks
have bought
Teslas, and
"80%" of those
that bought
FSD will buy
it again.
They each
believe they
are "good
drivers". I'm
a good
driver!!!!!😎
They'll sell
it to
essentially
all of us.
Alain
NHTSA seeking driver-assist data from automakers in Tesla Autopilot probe
A. LaFOrest, Sep 14, “ U.S. auto safety regulators are requesting substantial amounts of data on advanced driver-assistance systems from major automakers to aid their investigation into 12 Tesla crashes involving Autopilot and first responder scenes.
NHTSA's Office
of Defects
Investigation
sent letters
Monday to 12
automakers,
including Ford
Motor Co.,
General
Motors, Toyota
Motor North
America and
Volkswagen
Group of
America, to
gather
information
for comparing
vehicles
equipped with
Level 2
driver-assist
systems, where
the vehicle
has the
ability to
control
steering and
braking/accelerating
simultaneously
under certain
conditions.
For each
automaker, the
agency is
seeking the
number of
vehicles
equipped with
Level 2
systems that
have been
manufactured
for sale,
lease or
operation in
the U.S. as
well as the
cumulative
mileage
covered with
the systems
engaged
and a log of
the most
recent updates
to the
systems.
The agency
also is
requesting all
consumer
complaints,
field reports,
crash reports
and lawsuits
that may
relate to the
driver-assist
systems.
Automakers must describe the types of roads and driving conditions where the systems are intended to be used, and the methods and technologies used to prevent usage outside the operational design domain specified to customers. In addition, automakers must provide an overview of their approach to enforce driver engagement or attentiveness while the systems are in use…“ Read more Hmmmm… Can’t wait to read the responses. I wonder if any of the OEM even log “mileage covered with system engaged.” Why would they? … NHTSA might request it some day.
What are the privacy implications? ??? What other data are my car accumulating on how I use it without telling me (Of course, I didn’t read even the big print in my owner’s manual, let alone the fine print.) Alain
The Disco Ball Is How You Know She Won’t Give You a Parking Ticket
B. Berman,
Sep. 16, "Ms.
Devine, 54, is
among a
loose-knit
group of a few
dozen San
Franciscans
who are
reclaiming
former Go-4
and Cushman
parking
enforcement
vehicles for
transportation
and personal
expression.
"If there's
more
creativity in
the way we
move in the
world, it's an
antidote to
the sad and
sunken place
that many
people find
themselves
these days,"
she said.
The vehicles
have a
distinct
practical
advantage.
Three-wheelers
are legally
classified as
motorcycles,
so they can be
parked
perpendicular
to the curb.
As a result,
drivers of
these
mini-trucks —
a little over
four feet wide
— find
immediate
parking
throughout the
city while
four-wheeled
cars circle
the blocks in
vain, their
drivers
fuming...." [Read more](https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/09/10/meet-barts-first-ever-homelessness-czar/) Hmmmm...
Brings back
memories of
Dr. Jon Danna
Raggett, my
grad student
office mate @
Princeton,
who, after
getting his
degree, moved
to Vegas and
did the same
thing with a
3-wheeled
postal
vehicle, a [1963 Westcoaster Mailster](https://www.oldcarsweekly.com/features/car-of-the-week-1963-westcoaster-mailster).
This was
circa, 1970,
50 years ago.
I visited him
and we tooled
up to Ceasers
Palace with me
sitting on a
stool in the
back. Jon
asked the
valet to park
it carefully,
just as in [Ferris Bueller's Day Off](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVACbEHkV2Q). 😎
Alain
The SpaceX Inspiration4 mission splashed down in the Atlantic Ocean off Florida’s coast. Its crew of amateur astronauts spent three days in orbit.
M. Roston,
Sep. 18, "..."
[Read more](https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/09/10/meet-barts-first-ever-homelessness-czar/) Hmmmm...
Nothing but
impressive.
Replay @ [https://www.spacex.com/launches/](https://www.spacex.com/launches/)
Alain
C’mon Man!(These folks didn’t get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
More On….
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Poser’77, Sept 13, 2020. “Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines” . See slides, See video Hmmmm… Simply Brilliant. Alain
4thAnnual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.
Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April
18, "It's time
to hit the
start button,"
is [Fred Fishkin's](https://www.techstination.com/) succinct
way of
summarizing
the next steps
in the Smart
Driving Car
journey.
Fiskin, along
with the LA
Times' [Russ Mitchell](https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell?lang=en) co-produced
the final
session of
the [2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen: Part 2](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210415).
This 16th and
final session
in this
multi-month
online
conference not
only provided
a s[ummary of the thought-provoking speakers](https://viodi.com/2021/04/18/making-driverless-happen-the-road-forward/),
but also
provided food
for thought on
a way forward
to bring
mobility to
"the Trentons
of the World."
Setting the
stage for this
final session,
Michael Sena
provided
highlights of
the Smart
Driving Car
journey that
started in
late December
2020. Safety,
high-quality,
and affordable
mobility,
particularly
for those who
do not have
many options,
was a common
theme to the
2021 Smart
Driving Car
Summit. As
Princeton
Professor
Kornhauser,
the conference
organizer put
it,....." [Read more](https://viodi.com/2021/04/18/making-driverless-happen-the-road-forward/) Hmmmm.... We had another
excellent
Session.
Thank you for
the summary,
Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle’s Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
Michael Sena’s Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021“Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the “Trentons” of this World”
Orf467F20_FinalReport “Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System” Kornhauser & He, March 2021 “AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative”
###
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Fall 2021 Live in Person (Covid permitting) Trenton, NJ
November 16 (evening) -> 18 2021
On the More Technical Side http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean’s AV Research Group at U of Texas
and The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, “Recordings from the conference: Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: ([Cybersecurity](https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY)): [https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY](https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY)
Session 3: [(Automated Driving Systems](https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc)): [https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc](https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc)
Session 4: [(Communications for ADS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso)) : [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso) [Read more](https://www.itu.int/en/fnc/2021/Pages/default.aspx) Hmmmm...
Russ, thank
you for
sharing!
Alain
###
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 232, Zoom-Cast Episode 232 w Steven Shladover
###
F. Fishkin, Sept. 4 “Cameras alone aren’t enough to get Tesla or anyone else to driverless mobility. So says UC Berkeley’s Steven Shladover, a leading autonomous vehicle research engineer. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the need for more regulation from Washington, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota, Motional and more. Watch or listen to Smart Driving Cars Episode 232 and subscribe!”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 231, Zoom-Cast Episode 231 w Michael Sena, Creator of The Dispatcher
###
F. Fishkin, Aug 27, “What’s wrong with the concept of building electric vehicles on a skateboard type platform? Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus Tesla, Waymo and more. And the next Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit is on the way. Watch or listen…and subscribe! Or listen.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 230, Zoom-Cast Episode 230 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
###
F. Fishkin, Aug 21, “Teslas, Humanoids and Elevators! What Elon Musk and Tesla delivered at AI Day 2021 was insight into the company’s remarkable technology and that may boost recruiting efforts. So says Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser who is joined by co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal, author of POWER PLAY… Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. AI Day, the NHTSA investigation and Elon Musk hops on the elevator on Episode 230 of Smart Driving Cars!
Or you can
listen to
Episode 230 of
Smart Driving
Cars on
Tesla's AI Day
and more with
guest Tim
Higgins of the
Wall Street
Journal
..author of [POWER PLAY... Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century](https://anchor.fm/smartdrivingcars/episodes/Smart-Driving-Cars-Episode-230-Teslas--Humanoids-and-Elevators-e168g34).
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 229, Zoom-Cast Episode 229 w/Russ Mitchell, Los Angeles Times
F. Fishkin, Aug 18, “With the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration having opened an investigation into Tesla autopilot crashes involving emergency vehicles…Los Angeles Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the issues facing Tesla and other vehicle makers.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 228, Zoom-Cast Episode 228 Planes, Trains & Automobiles
F. Fishkin, Aug 13, “Planes, trains and automobiles. From battery powered electric light rail to the confusion over the difference between driver assistance and self driving to Amazon’s new 1.5 billion dollar U.S. air cargo hub…the focus is on the latest in mobility. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 228 of Smart Driving Cars. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 226, Zoom-Cast Episode 226 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
###
F. Fishkin, July 22, “The Wall Street Journal’s Tim Higgins has a new book arriving August 3rd titled POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. You can bet it’s a lively discussion with Tim on the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or listen.. https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-226-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 225, Zoom-Cast Episode 225 w/Kevin Biesty, Deputy Director for Policy @ Arizona DoT
F. Fishkin, July 22, “Chandler, Arizona is the one place where paying customers can take advantage of driverless robo-taxis (from Waymo) to get where they are going. How did that happen? What does the future hold? Kevin Biesty, Arizona’s Deputy Director for Policy at the Department of Transportation, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for an in depth discussion. Plus.. Ford, Argo, Lyft, Tesla, Mercedes & more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 224, Zoom-Cast Episode 224 w/Selika Josiah Talbot, Principal, Autonomous Vehicle Consulting
F. Fishkin, July 19, “Does there need to be a White House appointed autonomous and electric vehicle czar to open up new mobility possibilities for all? That’s the view of Selika Josiah Talbott..a government veteran who now heads Autonomous Vehicle Consulting and lectures at American University. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a deeper look at how the technology can be deployed to improve lives.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 223, Zoom-Cast Episode 223 w/Richard Mudge, Compass Transp. & Baruch Feigenbaum, Reason Foundation
F. Fishkin, July 15, “Can Tesla (and others) make automatic emergency braking work? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser continues his push and is joined by the Reason Foundation’s Baruch Feigenbaum and Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge along with co-host Fred Fishkin to explore this week’ss Transportation Research Board sessions. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 222, Zoom-Cast Episode 222
F. Fishkin, July 11, “Is it time for autopilot to not break the law? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser says yes. And if technology can save lives, prevent injuries and crashes shouldn’t it? Plus Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, Waymo, VW and more on Episode 222 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221, Zoom-Cast Episode 221 w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox
F. Fishkin, July 1, “With Zoox the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company’s vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220 w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times
F. Fishkin, July 1, “Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That’s a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill…who joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that…plus Tesla…autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 219, Zoom-Cast Episode 219 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, June 29 , “Why couldn’t a smart driving car prevent Alain’s crash with a deer? How important is exact location for highly automated driving? And NHTSA wants reports on all automated vehicle system crashes. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 218, Zoom-Cast Episode 218 w/Xinfeng Le, Waymo Product Manager
F. Fishkin, June 10 , “Have questions about Waymo’s partnership with JB Hunt to test autonomous trucks in Texas? So do we and Waymo’s Product Manager, Xinfeng Le joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to provide answers. Plus.. Waymo raises 2 and a half billion dollars, MacKenzie Scott gives away billions, start-up Waabi comes out of stealth, Argo AI plans an IPO and more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 217, Zoom-Cast Episode 217 w/Christorpher Mims, Columnist, Wall Street Journal
F. Fishkin, June 7 , “Are self-driving cars still decades ahead? Wall Street Jopurnal columnist and author Christopher Mims joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the progress and roadblocks. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, the dramatic rise in road deaths during Covid and more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 216, Zoom-Cast Episode 216 w/Michael Sena, editor The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 28 , “The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming Into Focus. That’s on top in the June edition of The Dispatcher. From Sweden, publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus better batteries, May Mobility, Tesla and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 215, Zoom-Cast Episode 215 w/Cade Metz, Correspondent, NY Times & Ken Pyle, editor, Viodi.com
F. Fishkin, May 27 , “The Costly Pursuit of Self Driving Cars Continues On and On and On. That’s the headline of a NY Times story this week. The reporter, Cade Metz, also the author of a new book on artificial intelligence, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Ken Pyle of Viodi View..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 214, Zoom-Cast Episode 214
F. Fishkin, May 23 , “An interview with the chief engineer behind Ford’s F150 Lightning EV truck…Waymo shares rider stories and the AFL-CIO tells Congress autonomous vehicles should be required to have human operators. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America’s Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , “The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America’s Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM, #TuSimple and more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too. “..
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212 w/Ken Pyle
F. Fishkin, May 8 , “Where does Waymo go from here? Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles? Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211 w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 1 , “There’s plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense…and what doesn’t. Plus #Tesla,#Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. …”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210 w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron’23
F. Fishkin, April 26 , “Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from Elon Musk’s The Boring Company. Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton’s Alain ..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209 w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.
F. Fishkin, April , “The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208 w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo
F. Fishkin, April 18, “What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo…some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207 w/Selika Josiah Talbott
F. Fishkin, April 10 , “When a driverless vehicle crashes…what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206 w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
F. Fishkin, April 2, “When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles? How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome? Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin…”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205 w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher. President, MLSena Consulting
F. Fishkin, March 26, “Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities. So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more…on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars…”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, “.With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker’s new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table…and a look at the future of auto insurance..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser F. Fishkin, March 13, “.GM’s move to transform auto insurance through OnStar Insurance: Is it a win, win for all? Is adaptive cruise control prompting some drivers to speed? And what does Tesla really mean by “full self driving”? Just some of the questions tackled in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202, Zoom-Cast Episode 202 President & CEO, RoadDB
F. Fishkin, March 3, “When will we be able to purchase cars that can largely drive themselves? It may not be long…but don’t expect to vacate the driver’s seat. That’s the view of entrepreneur, tech pioneer and RoadDB CEO Russ Shields. He takes an in depth look at where we are and where we’re headed with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201, Zoom-Cast Episode 201 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Feb. 26, “Smarter cars need smarter assembly…and location matters. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at that, politics, climate and carmakers…plus Tesla, Velodyne, Foxconn and more..” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200, Zoom-Cast Episode 200 w/Edwin Olsen, CEO, May Mobility F. Fishkin, Feb. 22, “How May Mobility is building confidence in autonomous transportation and creating a road map for growth through the pandemic and beyond. CEO and co-founder Edwin Olson joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.”
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
###
September 12,
2021
['It's a Godsend': 9-Cent Taxi Rides in Rural South Korea](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/11/world/asia/south-korea-100-won-taxis.html)
C.
Sang-Hun,Sep.
11, "The group
were waiting
for what would
once have been
an
unaffordable
luxury in this
rural corner
of the country
— a taxi to
take them
shopping and
to doctors'
appointments
in the county
seat 20
minutes away.
But even the
poorest among
them could
easily afford
this ride.
Each
passenger's
share of the
total fare
would be
measured not
in dollars but
in cents.
"It's a
godsend," said
one of the
passengers, Na
Jeong-soon,
85..." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/11/world/asia/south-korea-100-won-taxis.html) We can learn something from this, especially in
looking at the
real
opportunity
with
autonomousTaxis...
High-quality
affordable
shared
mobility for
all. What
Valley Metro
included in
investigating
in their
[study below](https://ktar.com/story/4668018/study-with-waymo-shows-riders-prefer-self-driving-vehicles-report-finds/).
Alain
September 4,
2021
[In a patch of Arizona, everyone knows Waymo. But few use it.](https://www.morningbrew.com/emerging-tech/stories/2021/08/23/patch-arizona-everyone-knows-waymo-use) R.
Duffy, Aug 23,
"Chandler,
Arizona, is a
city of just
over 250,000
that's located
southeast of
Phoenix. Like
most of
Arizona, it's
hot, dry, and
lined with
cacti and palm
trees.
But unlike
most of
Arizona—or
virtually
anywhere else
in the
world—Chandler
residents
share the road
with fully
driverless
robotaxis,
courtesy of
Waymo. As
Stacy, a
Chandler
resident, told
us, "Waymos
are like
rabbits in my
neighborhood."
Since October
2020, the
Alphabet
subsidiary has
been running
its driverless
ride-hail
service, Waymo
One, in a
50-square-mile
service area
that
encompasses
parts of
Chandler,
Tempe, Mesa,
and Gilbert.
Anyone with a
smartphone,
credit card,
and GPS
coordinates in
the service
area can hail
a completely
driverless
ride of their
own.
In December 2018, Waymo opened Waymo One (with safety drivers) to the general public, expanding beyond an early rider program available to pre-approved, NDA-bound Phoenix residents. The company’s current testing zone, for driverless and safety operator-supervised vehicles, stretches across roughly 100 square miles.
And although
residents
living in or
near the
service area
may be used to
seeing Waymo's
glossy-white,
sensor-laden
Chrysler
Pacificas
roving around,
the chances
they've ridden
in one are
much, much
lower. .." [Read more](https://www.morningbrew.com/emerging-tech/stories/2021/08/23/patch-arizona-everyone-knows-waymo-use) As I've been writing, Chandler is a great place to
test
Driverless
mobility to
make sure it
at least
begins to
work; however,
the value in
the technology
is not as
amusement or
thrill ride or
as circus
sideshow. The
value is its
ability to
affordably
deliver high
quality
on-demand
mobility. It
will be a long
time before it
can provide a
higher quality
of service
that a
chauffeured
"Black car" or
limousine, so
it can't
compete for
those
traveling on
an expense
account or the
well to do.
It also can't
really compete
to serve the
Drive-it-Yourself
(DiY) folks
that can
afford to buy
their own cars
and park them
for free when
not in use.
Conventional
mobility
serves all of
these folks
very well.
Where this form of mobility has a real advantage is to serve folks who are required to conform to mobility whose very limited service is provided on a “take-it-or-leave-it” operational philosophy. Services that operate between few fixed locations at strictly stipulated times specified by the service provider. The disparity in service is incredible between mobility options that respond directly to customer needs in terms of from/to/when (walking, DiY personal car, Uber/Lyft/taxi/limousine/WaymoOne) and public transit’s “take-it-or-leave-it” customer service approach.
Consequently, Waymo’s market opportunity is in places where customer demand is by folks who can’t DiY and aren’t on an expense account and can’t afford Uber/Lyft/taxi/limousine. Places like Trenton, New Jersey where 70% of the households have at most one car as opposed to Chandler where 70% of households have two or more cars. In Chandler, Waymo has to go far and wide (“50 sq. mi.) to find customers for which the Waymo One service is indeed better than what they already enjoy. In cities like Trenton, those folks exist in a compact 8 sq. mi. area. Seems like a no-brainer that Waymo Two should be in Trentons. Alain August 27, 2021 blue; text-decoration: none;”>
[Not So Easy to Pop a Top Hat on a BEV Skateboard, plus more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/jaau5r3mbqetqoj/The-Dispatcher_September-2021.pdf?dl=0)
M. Sena, Issue (08-10) , Aug. 25,” Some of you are fans of Douglas Adamsand will enjoy this month’s Musings. Sometimes a little humor helps to get a serious point across better than trying to be seriously persuasive.
The lead
article in
this issue is
the first part
of a two-part
series. This
month I
discuss why
there is still
a chance for
the Western
automotive
OEMs to stay
in the game of
manufacturing
cars, rather
than being
relegated to
assemblers of
battery
electric
vehicle
components.
Next month I
examine why
the position
they have held
for the past
century, King
of the Hill,
is about to be
challenged.
In the second
article is
focused on the
need for
cooperation
between robot
and driver in
highly
automated
driving. If
Tesla had done
a better job
on this score
it could have
avoided being
called on the
carpet by the
National
Highway
Traffic Safety Administration. We'll see where that leads.
Dispatch
Central, as
usual,
attempts to
have something
for everyone.
I've called
the European
Commission out
for a major
miss in its
intelligent
speed
assistance
regulation,
not for
passing it but
for not making
it as robust
as it should
be.
Yes, I did use
these summer
months to
start work on
a follow-up to
the Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit, and I did enjoy a very pleasant summer here in
Sweden. I hope
you enjoyed
your summer as
well wherever
and however
you spent it.
M. Sena"
Read more Hmmmm… Enjoy & Learn this month’s Dispatcher ( especially how to “… turn… pig’s ear into a silk purse…; no-brainers (P. 17); Some interesting Statistics on World energy & BEVs (P.18, thank you Fred Dryer), a possible upside for coal mines (P. 19), why ‘Level 3’ is even less probable than ‘Level 5’ which is reached only ‘in the limit as time goes to infinity’ and Evolutionary Domesticity (P. 29) and the answer is ‘42’ ! Listen/watch to the Pod/Zoom-Cast 231 with Michael, Fred and me centered on this issue. Alain
August 20,
2021
blue;
text-decoration:
none;">
Grizzly Research, Aug 10, “ TSP is the one of the latest hot China based IPO of an ambitious autonomous driving technology company, but we believe the company has systematically lied and misrepresented key information. …“ Read more Hmmmm… Devastating. Grizzly is focused on the short side, so read carefully. Bias may exist here.
My “back of the envelope”: Looks like TuSimple is expecting $0.35/mile revenue for their AV stack on Class 8 trucks. This is 50% of professional driver costs. Fine if you can eliminate the driver. Not so fine if an attendant is still there.
No way anyone can really begin to eliminate a driver on any stretch of the US interstate highway system for at least 2 years where there is any substantial volume of trucks. The “2 years” assumes that “attended” operation has encountered “few” disengagements, all of which have been appropriately resolved and there have been no “spectacular “ crashes by anyone involving Driverless Trucks in North America. (“Attended” means that there is at least one professional driver overseeing the “driverless” operation. “few”… you pick a number greater than zero. Disengagements… the professional driver intervened so as to avoid a “spectacular” crash. “Spectacular” crash is one that goes viral (Herzberg/Fukushima/Chernobyl/Diana). “2 years” … pick a number….)
Point is…, everyone is still in a substantial testing phase that has similar duration to Waymo’s/GM-Cruise/ Ford-Argo testing phases (5+ years) which necessarily precedes market introduction which then involves its own ramp-up phase (which hasn’t been going well for Waymo and the others haven’t even started.) So pick a number. During that time, TuSimple’s investors will need to pick up the tab for all of the people and all of the “liDars”, etc. used in testing and marketing initiatives before they can recognize any substantial $0.35/truck-mile revenue (minus any costs of the “AI-driver” software/sensor/processor/communications stack.. pick a number. In the initial ramp up of sales, this number can easily be greater than $0.35/mile).
TSP better be really good! Plus, they can’t afford any slip ups, nor have anyone else crash; else, Grizzly is going to do very well thank you. Alain
August 13,
2021 [CMU's Posner Lays Track for Future of Rail Transit](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2021/august/future-of-rail-transit.html) M
Henninger, Aug
11, "A bright
orange,
battery-powered
train breaks
the lush green
stillness of
Rockhill
Furnace,
Pennsylvania,
as it
traverses
track
originally
laid in 1876.
At the helm in
a bright
green/yellow
safety vest,
Meg Richards
tweaks the
throttle and
brakes as the
two-car train
passes by
baseball
fields,
crosses
streets and
completes the
day's test
run.
Along for the
ride, Henry
Posner III,
the chairman
of Railroad
Development
Corporation
(RDC) and an
adjunct
instructor at
Carnegie
Mellon
University,
sits eager to
demonstrate
his vision for
a rail-based
mass transit
system in the
United States.
The original
concept for
Pop-Up Metro —
a
battery-powered,
modular train
that can be
inserted onto
existing
infrastructure
— evolved in
parallel with
his Department
of History
class, The
American
Railroad-Decline
and
Renaissance in
the Era of
Deregulation.
"There are
more
possibilities
for railroads
than you might
think," said
Posner, who
together with
his wife,
University
Trustee Anne
Molloy, is
also a
generous
benefactor of
CMU. "A lot of
urban areas in
this country
have
underutilized
freight lines
that could
also support
transit
service.
People might
not have
considered
these
opportunities
because it's
been perceived
as too
expensive, too
lengthy and
too risky.
With Pop-Up
Metro, you can
do that
project
quickly on a
demonstration
basis. You
don't have to
spend $100
million."..."
[Read more](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2021/august/future-of-rail-transit.html)Hmmmm...
[Watch video](https://youtu.be/TSjAozf2r3g).
Fantastic for
those not
ready for
SmartDrivingCars
and those that
are, inducing
yours truly.
Alain
August 6, 2021
DECISION AUTHORIZING DEPLOYMENT OF DRIVERED AND DRIVERLESS AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE PASSENGER SERVICE CPUC, Nov 23, ‘20, “This decision creates two new autonomous vehicle programs that authorize fare collection (deployment programs), one for drivered autonomous vehicles and the other for driverless autonomous vehicles. Among other requirements, applicants to the existing driverless pilot program and the new driverless deployment program must submit Passenger Safety Plans that outline their plans to protect passenger safety for driverless operations.
In addition,
the decision
establishes
four goals
that apply to
both the
existing pilot
programs and
the new
deployment
programs; 1.)
Protect
passenger
safety; 2.)
Expand the
benefits of AV
technologies
to all of
Californians,
including
people with
disabilities;
3.) Improve
transportation
options for
all,
particularly
for
disadvantaged
communities
and low-income
communities;
and 4.) Reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions,
criteria air
pollutants,
and toxic air
contaminants,
particularly
in
disadvantaged
communities.
The Commission
will collect
data to
monitor permit
holders’
progress
toward each of
the goals...."
[Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/fiwy5ou01zo6tp6/CA%20PU%20Autonomous%20Vehicle%20Deployment%20Decision.PDF?dl=0) Hmmmm...
Sorry for not
reporting this
sooner, and
thank you Doug
Coventry for
bringing it to
my attention.
It is must
reading
for any
jurisdiction
making
regulations
regarding the
provision of
autonomousTaxi
mobility.
Its four goals are laudable, especially the 3rd, even if it may end up violating part of the 4th. Moreover, the clauses of the 3rd should be re-ordered to be: … Improve transportation options for disadvantaged communities, low income communities and those with disabilities, and, if possible, for all… This also reduces the goals to 3 important ones, … safety, the environment and improved mobility for those that have been left behind by the personal automobile
Of course, one wants to improve mobility for those that drive their own personal car; however, that is a entrenched well-served set of customers that are not readily going to flip from driving their car to something that isn’t really better and may largely be perceived as no cigar. Certainly, the public sector should in no way use public resources to give car drivers yet another good but inferior choice as was done with many public transportation investments that actually provide inferior mobility to those that were to be attract as customers. These systems are rebuffed by many that they were intended to be taken off the road for the trips they already make, let alone deliver quality-of-life benefits by providing mobility to new places that they couldn’t previously access.
A properly designed Operational Design Domain focused on from and where low income communities want to go is, to my mind, where the best opportunity exits for these safe, environmentally responsible systems . In such ODDs these driverless aTaxis can actually improve quality-of-life; and thus, deserve accommodation and promotion by public agencies such as CPUC. Alain
July 30, 2021
Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Charged With Lying to Investors C. . Ramey, July 29, “Trevor Milton, the founder of Nikola Corp. and onetime executive chairman of the electric-truck startup, was indicted Thursday on securities-fraud charges for what prosecutors said was a scheme to mislead investors about the company’s product and technology development.
Mr. Milton
faces two
counts of
securities
fraud and one
count of wire
fraud,
according to
the
indictment.
The U.S.
attorney's
office in
Manhattan,
which brought
the charges,
is set to make
an
announcement
about the
indictment on
Thursday
morning.
A spokesman
for Mr. Milton
didn't
immediately
comment. Last
year, Mr.
Milton said on
Twitter that
he intended to
defend himself
against "false allegations". [He resigned from Nikola in Septembe](https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikola-chairman-steps-down-as-company-faces-probe-11600672351?mod=article_inline)r
as [concerns mounted about the startup darling](https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-probes-electric-truck-startup-nikola-over-claims-it-misled-investors-11600199462?mod=article_inline)that
had attracted
backing from
some of the
industry's
biggest names.
Nikola wasn't
charged. The
company said
that Mr.
Milton hasn't
been involved
in the
company's
operations or
communications
since his
resignation.
"Nikola has
cooperated
with the
government
throughout the
course of its
inquiry," the
company's
statement
said. "We
remain
committed to
our previously
announced
milestones and
timelines and
are focused on
delivering
Nikola Tre
battery-electric
trucks later
this year from
the company's
manufacturing facilities."Â..." [Read more](https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-charged-with-lying-to-investors-11627563648) Hmmmm... Speaks for itself. Alain
July 23, 2021
Upward Urban & Rural Mobility via Autonomous Mobility K. Pyle, July 19, “It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. The picture Selika Josiah Talbott chose for her virtual backdrop at the recent 2021 TRB Annual Automated Road Transportation Symposium sums up the mobility challenges that urban and rural locales face with existing infrastructure, particularly in low-income areas. Joining Talbott on this panel were experts opining on Talbott’s insightful comments about autonomous mobility and its potential to provide upward mobility….” Read more Hmmmm… Simply a must read. This is the real market for autonomousTaxis (aTaxis). Alain
July 17, 2021 [2021 TRB Annual Automated Road Transportation Symposium](http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/181880.aspx) July 12
-> 15,
"..." [Read more](http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/181880.aspx) Hmmmm...I haven't been able to
find a public
source for any
of the content
from the
symposium but
there were at
least three
sessions (of
the few that I
was able to
attend) that
were really
good. One
was [B-101- An inside Look at Policy-Making for Automated Vehicles](https://trb-arts.secure-platform.com/a/solicitations/73/sessiongallery/899),
moderated by
Baruch
Feigenbaum of
the Reason
Foundation.
Pay particular
attention to
the insights
offered by
Kevin Biesty
of Arizona
DoT. So far,
no one in the
world has done
it better.
A second one was B204-Inclusive by Design: Creating an Equitable and Accessible Automated Future, moderated by Charlotte Frei.
The third was Richard Mudge’s B402- Shark Tank: Everything from Free Freight to AV for Low-Income Travelers to how many AV Firms will Survive?. (Spoil alert… the answer is . Selika Talbot’s presentation was absolutely fantastic. See PodCast/ZoomCast below for a discussion of parts of this session. Fred and I hope to do PodCasts/ZoomCasts with Selika and Kevin in the coming week.
Hopefully TRB will broadly distribute the recorded videos of these and the other sessions. One caution is that even in this community there is substantial confusion introduced over terminology which ends up having people talk by rather than with each other. This was an “Automated Road Transportation” symposium. One aspect of road transportation is the fundamental role of the human driver. It is very different than that of elevators that go from A to B without any direct human driver/operator intervention. The customer only tells the elevator what floor to go to. Everything else in the up/down mobility process is automated within the elevator’s Operational Design Domain (which is usually in a shaft, stooping only at designated stopping locations (floors) with centimeter accuracy but only when when sufficient power exists to perform the various operations. (Note: “Level 5 elevators” (operate under any power-available condition) will “never” exist.). It is easy for us to see the phenomenal difference in the societal value that can be achieved in elevators that deliver safe, shared-ride, on-demand 24/7 mobility, indiscriminately to essentially everyone. Unfortunately, precious little of that broad societal value can be achieved unless the elevator’s safe operation can be achieved without a human operator/driver.
This is a bang-bang situation. Either you have it or you don’t. Coming close doesn’t cut it.
It doesn’t mean that human operated elevators don’t deliver value to individual owners. My neighbor across the street has a dumbwaiter in her house that she and her husband control manually to move things including themselves up and down in their house. Works great. Real value. They both remain capable of performing the manual operations for themselves and if they charge themselves for the labor, they gain that charge so the transaction nets to zero labor cost. charge themselves . While some benefits (comfort & convenience) might be gained by them by automating some of the operating functions, full automation would be silly unless at least some number of neighbors would improve their quality-of-life if only they could easily go up and down in their house. That latent demand for improved quality-of-life does exist in tall buildings. It’s been consumed in a large part because elevators became operatorless and not just operator assisted. Shared and not quite door2door shortcomings are endured. 24/7, on-demand, affordable (especially for the rent payer on the “14th” floor. So much so that they just pick up the tab for the elevators that deliver accessibility to/from the “14th floor”) are the fundamental mobility attributes that totally dominate the competition for mobility afforded by the stairwell. Without the elimination of the operator/driver, the 24/7, on-demand, affordable trifecta is not deliverable to anybody.
Way too often during the Symposium automation that explicitly requires the continued presence of a driver and is only at best a comfort & convenience feature as ascribed benefits that accrue only for systems that achieve safe driverless operation. There is no getting away from it, automation that assist drivers is radically different than automation that replaces drivers. Hopefully next year we can have 2 AV conferences. One that focuses on automation to assist human drivers and one that focuses on technology and deployments that replaces the driver.
As far as connectivity goes, we need to realize that it is a nice2have, not a need2have. Since it can only deliver value among pairs of adopters, it struggles getting started by itself when it needs to find a partner. Unfortunately, road vehicles have performed well for more than 100 years without much connectivity and automation at this point is saying: you aren’t much help and we can’t afford to carry you along. Alain July 11, 2021
Tesla Says Autopilot Makes Its Cars Safer. Crash Victims Say It Kills. Neal Boudette, July 5, “ Benjamin Maldonado and his teenage son were driving back from a soccer tournament on a California freeway in August 2019 when a truck in front of them slowed. Mr. Maldonado flicked his turn signal and moved right. Within seconds, his Ford Explorer pickup was hit by a Tesla Model 3 that was traveling about 60 miles per hour on Autopilot.
A six-second video captured by the Tesla and data it recorded show that neither Autopilot, Tesla’s much-vaunted system that can steer, brake and accelerate a car on its own, nor the driver slowed the vehicle until a fraction of a second before the crash…“ Read more Hmmmm… A few comments here: 1. Because of the suit here, hopefully more of the data associated with this crash will be made public. Future crashes such as these seem to be covered by the recent NHTSA standing General Order requiring the data to be released without need of lawyers, assuming Tesla cooperates. 2. Neal (slightly) overstate his plot which clearly shows the Tesla began to decelerate slightly more than a full second before impact. He also doesn’t mention what the video clearly shows that the Tesla was “cut-off” by the pickup truck. More over the pickup applied its brakes as it was making the lane change (brake light came on). This brake application may well have been the critical element that made the crash unavoidable. AutoPilot was likely tacking the pickup from at least the 6 seconds before collision point. Tesla must have data on the relative longitudinal speed between the pickup and the Tesla.and it must also have an expected time-to-collision which is a critical measure as to when to kick in the Automated Emergency Braking System. Once again, my main concern here is not (yet) about the performance of AutoPilot, but the performance of Tesla’s Automated Emergency Braking System (AEBS). This is a rear-end crash. It is the responsibility of the AEBS to avert these crashes. Seems as if the AEBS did NOT properly anticipate the pick-up’s maneuver nor properly monitor time-to-collision. My recommendation here is to improve the AEBS.
3. Comments implying that radar would have been better at identifying the ‘cut-off’ are questionable. Lane intrusion is only partial until about 3 seconds before impact. Radar does not return lateral relative-speed, only longitudinal relative-speed. Who knows what lag exists in determining lateral speed and the accuracy of that determination. I doubt that either are very good web based on radar. My guess is that image processing at better than 20Hz would do best in this clear situation.
4. Interpretation of the turn signal can only be done with image processing (to my knowledge.)
5. Nothing is reported about any horn actuation (or if autoPilot even uses the horn). The brake application by the pickup may have been an impulsive response to a horn blow by the Tesla.
6. There seems to be no indication by the driver of the pick-up that he saw the Tesla coming.
7. The Tesla data likely also has its closing speed on the panel truck and thus the closing speed of the pick-up to the panel truck. This information may help us to begin to understand the extent to which the pickup was tailgating the panel truck. 8. To me, AutoPilot’s main issue is: should it allow “passing on the right” when “passing on the right” is illegal. The reason it is illegal is because it leads to crashes like this one, that is an issue that should be taken up by NHTSA and NTSB. To what extent should any of these automated driving devices engage in “illegal” driving? My current view (subject to change) is: a. Up to 9 mph over is OK. b. Rolling through a stop sign is OK, if it is determined that time to any likely collision is greater than 5 seconds (meaning you must be able to “see” at least 5 seconds away at speed limit +9 (or something similar)
c. Cross double line as long as oncoming traffic has slowed to under 25 mph and has room to proceed by squeezing right (or something like that).
d. Pass on the right as long as all pertinent vehicles in the two lanes are moving at less than 25 mph (or something like that).
Alain
June 28, 2021 [How Important is Exact Localization for HAD?](https://www.dropbox.com/s/e8ql7q722zxqb13/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf?dl=0) M.
Sena,
July/Aug. '21,
"[In this issue of The Dispatcher for July and August](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf), I
have taken up
a subject in
the lead
article that
has been on my
list for quite
some time. It
is of how cars
that drive
themselves
keep
themselves on
the road while
they make
their journey
to their
destination.
It turns out
that there is
a very good
reason why
Teslas crash
and Waymo is
running around
only in
Chandler,
Arizona after
people who
didn't know
better
promised that
there would be
completely
driverless
cars on all
roads a decade
ago:
localization
of a moving
vehicle is
very, very
hard, even for
a human.
I encourage
you to read
Musings this
month. It's
about making
the journey to
a world
without
climate change
protests, a
world where
they either
won't be
necessary or
allowed. On
most journeys,
we have to
cross bridges.
Sometimes we
have to make
them
ourselves.
Think of the
article as the
first bridge
to cross
toward a
better
understanding
of the climate
change
journey.
Dispatch
Central
contains, as
usual,
something for
everyone.
Insurance is
addressed in
the two main
articles. In
Bits and
Pieces I have
added my
thoughts on
recent events.
This is a
double issue,
in part
because we are
going to try
to do more
this summer
than we could
do last. But
it's also
because I need
some extra
time to work
on a follow-up
to the
Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit with Professor Alain Kornhauser. There was a
concrete
proposal put
forward by
Professor
Kornhauser
during the
last session,
and many of us
who took part
in the Summit
have committed
to try to work
on
implementing
that
proposal. [Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/e8ql7q722zxqb13/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf?dl=0) Hmmmm... . Once again an
outstanding The
Dispatcher.
I happen to
have a diffent
fundamental
view on"exact
localization" than Michael, many and possibly
even everyone
else... As
usual, I'll
take a very
self-centered
view... I've
lived my whole
life without
knowing (or
caring to
know) my
"exact
location".
I've been
satisfied to
know: "sort
of... where am
I?" but
exact...where
am I? ... not
so much.
What troubles
me about the
"exact where
am I" is that
this exactness
is in some
coordinate
system. Where
is the origin
of that
coordinate
system and is
moving? Oh,
it's the
"center" of
the earth??
Or some
"reference
point". So
"exact" is
actually,
"exact
relative to
some reference
point. Little
seems to ever
be said about
the
"exactness" of
the reference
point, but
that may
actually be
some saving
grace about
"exact".. it
is "exact"
relative to
some reference
point.
I see.. If the reference point is the center of the Universe, then I’d better be really-really precise; else, small small changes mean big-big differences. If the reference is the center of the earth, then I may just need to be really precise; else, small changes mean big differences. However, if the reference point is my nose and I’m trying to stay between two white lines and not hit anything, then the precision to which I need to know where things are may not need to be very precise as long as I have a little bit of leeway and still stay between the lines and leave enough room around the various objects to not hit them.
OK, safe driving requires only knowing where I am relative to objects around me to a moderate level of precision. I can do it in two ways… take the difference between two values: location of object and my location. The farther away the reference point, the more precise they will need to be if precision of the difference is to be maintained. Consequently, if the measurements are relative to my nose, the need for about as small as it can get.
Moreover, any precision data base lacks some “most” important values.. 1. a precise value for my location and 2. a precise value for anything around me that moves (meaning it wasn’t at its current location when the HD database was assembled). Required is the ability in real time to locate and track objects relative to me (my nose, the hood ornament of my car, ..) with only some precision These objects and their location aren’t included in these precise/HD databases. What is needed is a very reliable means of identifying objects and determining their position and velocity with little latency. This is absolutely necessary;uyr;y necessary for the moving objects, might as well do it also for the stationary objects. Alain
Please don’t suggest that one needs an HD map database in order to run their SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping) algorithm. That algorithm needs as input the relative position (sensor observations) of objects . The capability to determine those inputs is all that is needed to do collision avoidance, so don’t even bother going through the SLAM computation and certainly don’t pay for a reference data set.
May 29, 2021 [The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming into Focus](https://www.dropbox.com/s/bpeklrq3sgutu1l/The-Dispatcher_June-2021.pdf?dl=0) M.
Sena, June
2021,
"...Mobility-as-a-service
would provide
the business
model to tie
everything
together,
perhaps as an
extension of
your
phone/broadband
subscription.
Private car
ownership
would soon be
a relic of a
bygone age.
This is an interesting narrative, but is not a correct one. Even before COVID-19 changed how people have been living outside of China since Friday, the 13th of March 2020, the picture of everything happening in high density cities was a rumor that companies like WEWORK spread to build their houses of cards. …
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to
start thinking
outside the
bus. If a city
is serious
about
providing a
useful bus
service, it
needs to run
them
everywhere and
often,
including at
night. It
must,
therefore, get
rid of cars
driving and
parking on its
streets. ..
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to
start thinking
outside the
bus. If a city
is serious
about
providing a
useful bus
service, it
needs to run
them
everywhere and
often,
including at
night. It
must,
therefore, get
rid of cars
driving and
parking on its
streets. ...
What cities
are doing
today all over
the world is
neither
providing an
adequate
service to
their citizens
nor using the
money
allocated for
transport in a
cost-effective
way...
Bite the bullet and get private cars off the big city streets
The reasons
that people
who live in
cities began
to buy cars
was that they
needed them to
get to their
jobs, the ones
that began
moving out of
the cities in
the campuses
where there
were no
transit links.
Then they
needed them to
drop off their
children to
day care
centers since
both parents
worked. Then
they needed
them to drop
off their
older
children...
As I said, it is not buses that will meet the need. Neither is it roads filled with taxis. There are taxis offering rides in Trenton and Scranton, but they are not replacing buses because they are too expensive and are often unavailable when demand for them is highest. The Uber/Lyft model can be better at meeting demand, but they are still too costly…”
Read more Hmmmm… Enjoy the whole issue. It is enormously well written! Also listen/watch the SDC Pod/Zoom Cast 216- below with Michael. Alain May 22, 2021
Why I Ride with Waymo: Mike Waymo One, May 13, “… I started taking it to work, and after crunching the numbers for gas, maintenance, insurance, upkeep, and owning a depreciating investment, it was pretty much a no-brainer that we really didn’t need two cars. I sold off my car and made Waymo my choice for commuting to and from work and for trips my wife and I need to take when the other is using our car…“ Read more Hmmmm…This is really great that he “crunched the numbers” and found it to be “pretty much a no-brainer”, which is what every real Waymo customer in Chandler has to do to become a Waymo customer. One “doesn’t move to Chandler unless one has “two cars”. See slide 5: 70% of the households have 2 or more cars in Chandler, so most of the folks have had to do the math to become a customer. If Waymo offered the same service in Trenton, where 70% of the households have at most one car and 30% don’t have any, then it doesn’t take much number crunching to appreciate Waymo when walking is the next best way to go.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the “easiest” ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
May 8, 2021 [Why hasn't Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here's is my theory](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/why-hasnt-waymo-expanded-its-driverless-service-heres-my-theory/)
T. Lee, May 7,
"Suburban
ride-hailing
is a lousy
business to be
in.
Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver’s seat.
And then...
nothing. Seven
months later,
Waymo has
neither
expanded the
footprint of
the Phoenix
service nor
has it
announced a
timeline for
launching in a
second city.
It's as if
Steve Jobs had
unveiled the
iPhone,
shipped a few
thousand
phones to an
Apple Store in
Phoenix, and
then didn't
ship any more
for months;
and wouldn't
explain why.
Last Friday,
two Waymo
employees [participated in an "ask me anything" thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/n031vq/you_voted_and_were_excited_to_chat_about_waymo/) on
the
SelfDrivingCars
subreddit, a
watering hole
for
self-driving
industry
insiders.
Questions
about
expansion
plans
dominated the
conversation.
"How are you
going to
scale?" one
redditor
asked. "What
are the
impediments to
service
expansion at
this time?"
The Waymonauts
responded with
maddening
generalities.
"We feel the
same urgency
to scale
quickly that
others do, but
a ton of work
goes into
doing it
safely," wrote
Waymo's Sam
Kansara." [Read more](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/why-hasnt-waymo-expanded-its-driverless-service-heres-my-theory/) Hmmmm... Not at all surprising. Can you imagine trying to be
better than
one's own Land
Rover or
Porsche in car
country. That
is a heavy
lift. Making
it heavier is
the focus on
today's most
entitled
yuppies.
That's as bad
as the
original focus
of driverless
cars on
1%ers. Waymos
are pure and
simple
mobility
machines to
get you
from/to places
horizontally,
just as
elevators do
vertically ...
just get you
up to the "8th
floor". Why
are elevators
so successful
at what they
do?... Second
best is the
stairwell!
They win all
the time,
hands down.
In Chandler, the “stairwell” is your car parked in your garage. You don’t even have to go outside in all that heat. Waymo’s got to be really good to beat that! Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances “slim-to-none”. Not that the car in the garage doesn’t have an enormous amount of “excess baggage”. Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it. When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car. Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live. That’s a challenging market place for Waymo. It’s worse than Bing v Google
A better place for Waymo ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service. The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car. Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don’t have access to one. Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach “the eighth floor”; which, once they can using Waymo, would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.
Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that’s arguably the last place for Waymo to go. However, the census identifies many communities and “inner suburbs” that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household. For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice. Numerous Trenton residents would readily perceive Waymo as the “Google” in their trip mode-choice.
Another note… trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool’s gambit. Since Waymos don’t misbehave, it is “easy” to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about. Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director,
Transportation
Program
Faculty Chair,
Princeton Autonomous
Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton
University
Princeton, NJ
609-980-1427
(c)