2021-11-21
November 20, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;”>42st edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
The impact of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) on insurance claims (True Impact of ADAS Features on Insurance Claim Severity Revealed)
J. Kanet, Nov 9, “Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have improved automobile safety by minimizing the factor most frequently associated with car accidents – human error. The conventional wisdom has been that ADAS technologies should mitigate the number of insurance claims, but the impact of ADAS on claim severity has been less clear. ADAS features include expensive and complex technical components and are often installed on exposed areas of vehicles, making them susceptible to damage from a collision.
This white
paper examines
the
multivariate
effect of ADAS
features on
claim
severity. It
is a follow up
to our earlier
report, [ADAS Analysis Creates Path for Auto Insurance Rating](https://lexisnexis.turtl.co/story/multivariate-adas-whitepaper/?utm_campaign=INSATO20.MetStraDem.VBDemGenWP),
which analyzed
the impact of
ADAS systems
on claim
frequency. For
both analyses,
LexisNexis
Risk Solutions
considered the
same sample of
11 million
vehicles from
model years
2014-2019, and
reviewed
industry-wide
claims loss
data for
bodily injury,
property
damage and
collision
coverages.
For this
follow-up
report, we
looked at the
interactions
between a core
list of ADAS
features and
quantified the
claim severity
differential
across all 648
possible
combinations
of those
features. ...
" [Read more](https://risk.lexisnexis.com/insights-resources/white-paper/true-impact-of-adas-features-on-insurance-claim-severity-revealed?trmid=INSATO21.2021AutoLG.2021ADAS.OMXX-545501) Hmmmm... Excellent. Finally there is
data that
supports that
ADAS is indeed
fundamentally
good for the
insurance
industry in
that it allows
them to make
more money.
Not to be
crass, but
"crash
mitigation"
(airbag, [energy absorbing car design](https://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/esv/esv17/Proceed/00137.pdf), ...) has been
great for
safety...
saving lives,
reducing
occupant
severity , ...
but,
the
liabilities
associated
with crash
mitigation
have
increased. [Claim Severity](https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-auto-insurance)
for both Physical
Damage and
Bodily Injury
have gone
up. Cars are
more expensive
to repair and it
costs more if
you live than
if you die.
🙁,.
For years I’ve been arguing that ADAS focused squarely on Crash Prevention {automated collision avoidance (that actually works well… does kick automatically to avoid collision 😎), not just “warning” (that is annoying. Because since it is just a warning there is no pressure to make it work well… just cover your butt! So, no pressure to make it work well. Consequently, “everyone” turns it off to avoid being annoyed… 🙁} is Automation’s best opportunity to deliver real safety… Save lives, …, and make $$$ for the Insurance industry!
For years, I’ve postulated that as soon as {“the expected liability savings for ADAS (the difference in the expected liability for me with&without…)” < (less than) “incremental cost of ADAS on the price of a car that I am about to buy (difference with&without)”}, my insurance agent (the Gecko, Flo, NJM, or ???) should insist on picking up the tab on the price difference as long as I continue to pay my existing premiums! Nothing but a win-win! I win because the probability that I die… is lower and the Gecko, Flo, NJM, or ??? smile all the way to the bank😎. These are real market forces.
This is the first report that I’ve seen that begins to quaintly the reduction in “expected liability” of ADAS based on real experiential data. To me, this is major!
Be sure to see the white paper True Impact of ADAS Features on Insurance Claim Severity Revealed and listen/watch the SDC Pod/ZoomCast 242. Alain
SmartDrivingCars
[Pod-Cast Episode 242](https://anchor.fm/smartdrivingcars/episodes/Smart-Driving-Cars-Episode-242-e1act7n),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 2](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnebUnomQIQ)[42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnebUnomQIQ) w/Gabe Hinton
& Dick
Mudge
###
###
F. Fishkin, Nov. 16, “LexisNexis Risk Solutions has determined that advanced driver assistance systems are helping insurers. Should they lower premiums? Senior Scientist and researcher Gabe Hinton joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and Dick Mudge from Compass Transportation and Technology for a look at the issues.
The
SmartDrivingCars
eLetter,
Pod-Casts,
Zoom-Casts and
Zoom-inars are
made possible
in part by
support from
the Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For
more
information: [www.motoetf.com](https://www.smartetfs.com/). Most funding is
supplied by
Princeton
University's
Department of
Operations
Research &
Financial
Engineering
and Princeton
Autonomous
Vehicle
Engineering
(PAVE)
research
laboratory as
part of its
research
dissemination
initiative
###
We tried Tesla’s ‘full self-driving.’ Here’s what happened
M. McFarland, Nov. 18, “… Asking “full self-driving” to navigate Brooklyn felt like asking a student driver to take on a road test they weren’t ready for yet…. “ Read moreHmmmm… There are many other good quotes in this article and the video is a must watch reality check. Brooklyn is tough! Can you imagine Manhattan???
On the other hand, it is really impressive in what it does do. It has come a long way AND has a long way yet to go. That is the reality… We still have much more to do before society begins to really reap any of the benefits of this technology. So let’s get out of Silicon Valley’s swashbuckling “fake it till you make it” culture, put our heads down, and keep working. I’m still confident we can make it and let’s absolutely stop faking it! Alain
Elizabeth Holmes Begins Her Defense in Fraud Trial
E. Griffin,
Nov. 19, "...
And on Friday,
the person
whom
prosecutors
have been
making their
case against —
Elizabeth
Holmes, the
founder of the
failed blood
testing
start-up
Theranos —
took the stand
to defend
herself. She
faces 11
counts of
defrauding
investors over
Theranos's
technology and
business in a
case that has
been billed as
a referendum
on Silicon
Valley's
start-up
culture. She
has pleaded
not
guilty...." [Read more](https://youtu.be/jhDiaUL_RaM?t=5070) Hmmmm... "If
convicted, Ms.
Holmes, 37,
faces up to 20
years in
prison. While
high-profile
start-up
founders from
Uber's Travis
Kalanick to
WeWork's Adam
Neumann have
experienced
swift falls
from grace
over ethics
scandals, Ms.
Holmes may
become one of
the few to go
to jail for it."
....
Interesting
that [the women go to jail](https://biography.yourdictionary.com/articles/why-did-martha-stewart-go-to-jail.html) and
the men ...
Whew! Alain
Solutions for the Shortage of Truck Drivers
Opinion, Nov. 20, “… The current truck driver shortage is rooted in sweatshop working conditions imposed by the trucking industry, not a lack of qualified drivers….” Read more Hmmmm… I support Jane Claybrook’s Opinion and Automated Driver Assistance (ADAS) for truckers as the real opportunity to improve working conditions and attract new drivers. Drivers need help in order to be able to notDie and feed their families. That should be THE primary focus of automated technology. NOT… taking the driver out of the truck. Way too early to even think about that. Sorry Ariel and all of the “SoftBanks” of this world.
See also: “The Supply-Chain Crisis Is Creating a Rare Opportunity for Truck Drivers” Alain
TuSimple readies autonomous runs to UPS hubs in Florida, North Carolina
S. Fuller, Nov. 3, “TuSimple is working with UPS Supply Chain Solutions to expand its Autonomous Freight Network and begin commercial runs to UPS North American Air Freight terminals in Orlando, Florida, and Charlotte, North Carolina, TuSimple announced Wednesday….” Read more Hmmmm… Surprised to not see the word “driverless” between “begin” and “commercial”. ???? (my italics above). See also the “Drive Insight” piece of the above. Alain
Prepare to pay more for electricity after Pennsylvania approves Peco rate increase
A. Maykuth, Nov. 18, “Peco Energy electric bills will increase about 6.6% on Jan. 1 under a proposal the state approved Thursday, which also enhances the Philadelphia utility’s support for electric vehicle charging infrastructure….” Read more Hmmmm…Can you imagine the headlines in 2030 when “20%” of rich people and “40%’ of environmentalists own electric cars and we’ve stopped using coal to create the electrons and … Again we are going to need to get from the existing LL Energy Chart to one without coal and ??.??% less petroleum on the left and roughly the same right hand side. If Supply of electricity doesn’t keep pace with that kind of increasing Demand, then what does the 2030 electricity situation look like compared to the Gas Shortages in 1970s America? 😭 Alain
Race to the Future: What to Know About the Frantic Quest for Cobalt
E. Lipton,, Nov 20, “The clean energy revolution is replacing oil and gas with a new global force: the minerals and metals needed in electric car batteries, solar panels and other forms of renewable energy.
Places like
the Democratic
Republic of
Congo, which
produces
two-thirds of
the world's
supply of
cobalt, for
example, are
stepping into
the kinds of
roles once
played by
Saudi Arabia
and other
oil-rich
nations. And a
race between
China and the
United States
to secure
supplies could
have
far-reaching
implications
for the shared
goal of
protecting the
planet.
An
investigation
by The New
York Times
drew on
interviews
with more than
100 people on
three
continents and
thousands of
pages of
financial,
diplomatic and
other
documents.
Here are some
of the
findings...."
[Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/20/world/china-congo-cobalt-explained.html) Hmmmm...
Does the Congo
become the new
Saudi Arabia
of 2030 and
beyond????? Alain
Bill Gates’ TerraPower aims to build its first advanced nuclear reactor in a coal town in Wyoming
C. Clifford, Nov. 17, “TerraPower, a start-up co-founded by Bill Gates to revolutionize designs for nuclear reactors, has chosen Kemmerer, Wyoming, as the preferred location for its first demonstration reactor. It aims to build the plant in the frontier-era coal town by 2028… “ Read more Hmmmm… Or… Does Does Bill Gates become the knight in shining armor that save’s the day. I’ve “always” been a big fan of “neighborhood nukes”. Alain
Apple hits record high on report that it’s targeting a 2025 rollout of an autonomous electric vehicle
Staff, Nov. 18, “Apple stock surged 3% to a record high and eclipsed Microsoft in market cap on Thursday after Bloomberg reported that the iPhone maker is accelerating its development of an electric car that is fully autonomous…” Read more Hmmmm… Will there ever be any real substance behind this initiative or is it all about bling? Alain
Miami commission votes to banish electric scooters from its streets
A. Hawkins, Nov. 19, “The Miami City Commission has voted to end its multiyear experiment with shared electric scooters. In a four to five vote, the commission approved a “pocket item” (a last-minute legislative maneuver) to end the Miami scooter pilot. The ordinance went into effect at midnight November 18th….” Read more Hmmmm… Yea!!! One almost ran me down on the sidewalk along Nassau Street!. Since I’d probably kill myself and others if I tried one, I’m one of the old guys yelling… Yea!!! 😎 Alain
Uber One bundles rides, deliveries, and food for $50 per year
A. Hawkins, Nov. 17, “… Uber One members won’t have to pay a delivery fee for takeout and groceries, will have priority access to top rated drivers and couriers, and get $5 cash back on late deliveries. They’ll also get other “exclusive perks,” such as various promotions and “invite-only experiences.”…” Read more Hmmmm… Great idea if your fundamental product scales… unit costs of production gets cheaper the more you sell. Unfortunately, not true with labor intensive products such as home delivery and chauffeuring. These costs get higher because those willing to gig for little or nothing is a very limited resource. At some point one needs revenue to cover their cost of living.
However, this is a great idea if folks just pay for the membership and never use it. This is successful if Uber shrinks. Alain
Tesla has a serious phantom braking problem in Autopilot
F. Lambert, Nov. 15, “Tesla is seeing an increase in complaints over serious and dangerous phantom braking events plaguing Autopilot in the latest software updates.
Phantom
braking is a
term used to
describe when
an advanced
driver assist
system (ADAS)
or a
self-driving
system applies
the brakes for
no good
reason...." [Read more](https://electrek.co/2021/11/15/tesla-serious-phantom-braking-problem-autopilot/) Hmmmm...
It is
interesting
that this only
becomes a
problem when
Tesla's
Automated
Emergency
Braking system
(AEBs) in not
disabled.
That's a real
"Hmmmm...
" Alain
Tesla (TSLA) is in a position to grab $2.5 trillion of EV market, says top analyst
F. Lambert, Nov. 19, “Dan Ives from Wedbush, one of the top 10 ranked stock analysts in the world, has increased his price target on Tesla’s stock (TSLA) as he believes the automaker will take a significant part of the growing EV market.
In a new note
to clients
today, Wedbush
announced that
it is
increasing its
price target
on Tesla from
$1,100 per
share to
$1,400...." [Read more](https://electrek.co/2021/11/19/tesla-tsla-position-grab-trillion-ev-market-top-analyst/) Hmmmm... Wow!! Glad I bought a few shares
a month or so
ago. So happy
for those who
jumped on much
earlier than I
did (and glad
I've never
shorted
anything).
This may end
up being my
first
non-"buy-high-sell-low"
investment
decision.😁
Alain
+++++++++++++++++++
5th Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit: Deployment of Equitable Affordable, High Quality Mobility throughout New Jersey
Date Change: Thursday evening, May 5, through Saturday May 7, 2022. Live in Trenton, New Jersey.
“Everything” was going well wrt the 5th Summit Nov 18->20; however…
Time is very short, we must focus on the election and the realities of where we remain with Covid really put cold water on some aspects of our vision for November.
Consequently. I’ve become convinced that it is very much better, that we take our time and reschedule for the first week on May 2022 rather than rush for what isn’t as good as could be.
By May we will have received responses to our upcoming RfI for “Equitable … Mobility in Trenton”. We will thus have a better idea on “Who”, from the “What & How” communities, “Want & Can” Deploy “Equitable … Mobility” starting in Trenton with real expectations of scaling throughout New Jersey.
In May the [5th Summit](https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit)
can better
achieve its
fundamental
purpose by
allowing all
of us in New
Jersey to
better learn
from others
around the
world the
"Whats &
Hows" and have
the possible
"Whos" get a
better
appreciation
of the "Equitable
... Mobility"
desires
of Trentonians
and other New
Jersians.
Rescheduling the Summit to be between the RfI and the RfP steps of our Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) Deployment Process, will better enable our Community Engagement initiative to shape our ultimate deployment. We’ll thus deliver even better mobility equitably and best improve quality-of-life in Trenton and throughout New Jersey.
Please pencil into your calendar the new dates of May 5 (Thursday evening) though May 7 (Trenton Mobility Festival Saturday). 😎 Please let me know if these dates work for you.
Sorry about the delay, but many will be relieved by this change. Plus, early May is really nice in NJ.😁
Alain
This 5th Summit is inspired by the many levels of public-sector, community and neighborhood welcoming and support that now exists in New Jersey for the deployment of equitable, affordable, high-quality mobility. This is now made possible by automated driving technology that is especially targeted to serve those who, for whatever reason, don’t have access to their own personal car.
The Princeton SDC Summits were initiated in 2017 to provide a venue for the open discussion of how technology, in particular automation, can be shaped to improve mobility of people and goods between and within cities. Early on, we realized that this form of mobility could easily provide yet another alternative to those who are fortunate enough to enjoy one or many high quality mobility options.
But, more importantly, it became obvious that substantial improvement in quality-of-life and equitable mobility can readily be made available to the un-served and under-served. Those who cannot drive themselves, cannot afford the transport alternatives that exist for them, or who live in areas where, for either economic or other reasons, neither public nor private desirable forms of transport are offered. Furthermore, such initial Operational Design Domains (OODs) can be readily expanded and replicated to allow the vast investments continuing to be made in this technology to actually yield their envisioned societal and financial benefits.
The recently completed 4th Summit set the groundwork for these initial deployments to benefit under-served communities. Communities with many households having access to one or fewer cars and with challenged transit alternatives. We concluded the 4th Summit by envisioning a deployment throughout Trenton, NJ, a community where 70% of the households have access to one or fewer cars.
We believe that Trenton is a perfect ODD to begin to deliver Equitable, Affordable, High-quality Mobility, in addition to being environmentally responsible, safe and comfortable.
The opportunity to expand throughout Mercer County and replicate this deployment scenario throughout the State exists. This deployment will serves as a blueprint for the future for many other “Trentons” of this world.
The groundwork set by the 4th Summit and the NJ Autonomous Vehicle Task Force has enabled us to create a “most welcoming environment” in New Jersey for creating a Public-Private Partnership to deliver this enhanced mobility to the residents of Trenton and all New Jersians. The 5th Summit will focus directly on deploymentin Trenton and will take place in Trenton. We also envision its expansion throughout Mercer County and its replication in and around New Jersey’s other major cities.
The Technical portion of the summit will be in the morning, through lunch, of Friday, May 6 and Saturday, May 7.
Sessions will be free of charge but will require advance registration, as seating will be limited.
The Societal portion focused on engaging the customers of this form of mobility, featuring descriptions, discussions, interactions, exhibits and technology demonstrations, will be free and open to the public, with preference given to Trenton residents on Friday and residents of Mercer County and the rest of New Jersey on Saturday. Link to Sponsorship Opportunities Link to Draft Program Link to Registration
C’mon Man!(These folks didn’t get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
More On….
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Poser’77, Sept 13, 2020. “Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines” . See slides, See video Hmmmm… Simply Brilliant. Alain
4thAnnual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.
Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April
18, "It's time
to hit the
start button,"
is [Fred Fishkin's](https://www.techstination.com/) succinct
way of
summarizing
the next steps
in the Smart
Driving Car
journey.
Fiskin, along
with the LA
Times' [Russ Mitchell](https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell?lang=en) co-produced
the final
session of
the [2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen: Part 2](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210415).
This 16th and
final session
in this
multi-month
online
conference not
only provided
a s[ummary of the thought-provoking speakers](https://viodi.com/2021/04/18/making-driverless-happen-the-road-forward/),
but also
provided food
for thought on
a way forward
to bring
mobility to
"the Trentons
of the World."
Setting the
stage for this
final session,
Michael Sena
provided
highlights of
the Smart
Driving Car
journey that
started in
late December
2020. Safety,
high-quality,
and affordable
mobility,
particularly
for those who
do not have
many options,
was a common
theme to the
2021 Smart
Driving Car
Summit. As
Princeton
Professor
Kornhauser,
the conference
organizer put
it,....." [Read more](https://viodi.com/2021/04/18/making-driverless-happen-the-road-forward/) Hmmmm.... We had another
excellent
Session.
Thank you for
the summary,
Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle’s Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
Michael Sena’s Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021“Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the “Trentons” of this World”
Orf467F20_FinalReport “Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System” Kornhauser & He, March 2021 “AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative”
###
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Thursday (evening), May 5, Welcome Reception (Registration required)
Friday, May 6, Equitable Mobility Innovation Forum (Registration required)
Saturday, May 7, Equitable Mobility Festival (Open to All)
Trenton, NJ
Live in Person
On the More Technical Side http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean’s AV Research Group at U of Texas
and The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, “Recordings from the conference: Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: ([Cybersecurity](https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY)): [https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY](https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY)
Session 3: [(Automated Driving Systems](https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc)): [https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc](https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc)
Session 4: [(Communications for ADS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso)) : [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso) [Read more](https://www.itu.int/en/fnc/2021/Pages/default.aspx) Hmmmm...
Russ, thank
you for
sharing!
Alain
###
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 241, Zoom-Cast Episode 241 w/Danny Shapiro, nVIDIA
###
###
F. Fishkin, Nov. 11, “NVIDIA’s GTC GPU Technology Conference was filled with innovations that can change lives…and save lives. The company’s CEO declared someday everything that moves will be autonomous…either fully or mostly. NVIDIA Automotive VP Danny Shapiro joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for the latest Smart Driving Cars. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 240, Zoom-Cast Episode 240 AEB&FSD
###
###
F. Fishkin, Nov. 6, “Tesla, full self driving and the need for a fix. Cruise goes driverless in San Francisco, Waymo Driver heads to NYC while Aurora debuts on Wall Street. That and more in episode 240 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 239, Zoom-Cast Episode 239 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
###
###
F. Fishkin, Oct 28, “Will there be an uprising if a crush of electric vehicles results in overwhelmed power grids? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to dive into the issues. Plus the latest on Tesla, the Hertz and Uber deals and more.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 238, Zoom-Cast Episode 238 w/Chunk Mui, Futurist
###
###
F. Fishkin,Oct 18, “With his new book “A Brief History of a Perfect Future..Inventing the World We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050”, author and futurist Chunka Mui informs us how rapidly advancing technology can solve many problems including mobility and transportation. The questions? And a surprise offer from Chunka (keep watching) …in Episode 238 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or you can listen to episode 238 of Smart Driving Cars”.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 237, Zoom-Cast Episode 237 Aurora aTaxi & aTrucking
###
F. Fishkin,Oct 18, “Aurora is planning subscription services for autonomous trucking & ride hailing. Passenger buttons to stop and start are part of Motional’s planned self driving taxi experience. And Tesla’s Texas insurance rates to be based on real time driving behavior. Plus more in Episode 237 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 236, Zoom-Cast Episode 236 w/Russ Mitchell, LA Times Staff Writer
###
F. Fishkin, Sept. 30, “The Tesla automatic braking mystery. Los Angeles Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to to explore the questions surrounding automatic emergency braking in Teslas and other cars. The systems have to work before there can be autonomous mobility. Plus GM unveils Ultra Cruise, the 5th annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit moves to May and actor William Shatner prepares for liftoff.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 235, Zoom-Cast Episode 235 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
###
F. Fishkin, Sept. 30, “So what is a car company? Appearances can be deceiving. Join The Dispatcher publisher & consultant Michael Sena on Episode 235 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus much more on the upcoming summit and mobility for all… “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 234, Zoom-Cast Episode 234 1st Preview of 5th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
###
F. Fishkin, Sept. 26, “Tesla reportedly has built 300 thousand cars in Shanghai so far this year despite the chip shortage. FedEx & Aurora partner for autonomous trucking in Texas. And dramatic developments in advance of the upcoming 5th annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Tune in to Smart Driving Cars… and subscribe..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 233, Zoom-Cast Episode 233 w Prof. Adriano Alessandriniat the U. of Florence
###
F. Fishkin,
Sept. 18 "What
will it take
to deliver
autonomous
mobility for
all? For one
thing,
improved road
systems, says
Professor
Adriano
Alessandrini
at the
University of
Florence.
The author of
The Role of
Infrastructure
for a Safe
Transition to
Automated
Driving joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin
for a spirited
discussion on
that, plus
Waymo and new
details on
bringing new
mobility to
New Jersey and
the upcoming
Princeton
Smart Driving
Car SmartDrivingCars
[Pod-Cast Episode 232](https://anchor.fm/smartdrivingcars/episodes/Smart-Driving-Cars-Episode-232-Can-cameras-alone-get-to-driverless-mobility-e16tilm)[,](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-230-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play) [Zoom-Cast Episode 232](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeGxqFemSWw)
w [Steven Shladover](https://path.berkeley.edu/steven-e-shladover)
###
F. Fishkin, Sept. 4 “Cameras alone aren’t enough to get Tesla or anyone else to driverless mobility. So says UC Berkeley’s Steven Shladover, a leading autonomous vehicle research engineer. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the need for more regulation from Washington, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota, Motional and more. Watch or listen to Smart Driving Cars Episode 232 and subscribe!”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 231, Zoom-Cast Episode 231 w Michael Sena, Creator of The Dispatcher
###
F. Fishkin, Aug 27, “What’s wrong with the concept of building electric vehicles on a skateboard type platform? Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus Tesla, Waymo and more. And the next Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit is on the way. Watch or listen…and subscribe! Or listen.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 230, Zoom-Cast Episode 230 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
###
F. Fishkin, Aug 21, “Teslas, Humanoids and Elevators! What Elon Musk and Tesla delivered at AI Day 2021 was insight into the company’s remarkable technology and that may boost recruiting efforts. So says Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser who is joined by co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal, author of POWER PLAY… Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. AI Day, the NHTSA investigation and Elon Musk hops on the elevator on Episode 230 of Smart Driving Cars!
Or you can
listen to
Episode 230 of
Smart Driving
Cars on
Tesla's AI Day
and more with
guest Tim
Higgins of the
Wall Street
Journal
..author of [POWER PLAY... Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century](https://anchor.fm/smartdrivingcars/episodes/Smart-Driving-Cars-Episode-230-Teslas--Humanoids-and-Elevators-e168g34).
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 229, Zoom-Cast Episode 229 w/Russ Mitchell, Los Angeles Times
F. Fishkin, Aug 18, “With the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration having opened an investigation into Tesla autopilot crashes involving emergency vehicles…Los Angeles Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the issues facing Tesla and other vehicle makers.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 228, Zoom-Cast Episode 228 Planes, Trains & Automobiles
F. Fishkin, Aug 13, “Planes, trains and automobiles. From battery powered electric light rail to the confusion over the difference between driver assistance and self driving to Amazon’s new 1.5 billion dollar U.S. air cargo hub…the focus is on the latest in mobility. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 228 of Smart Driving Cars. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 226, Zoom-Cast Episode 226 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
###
F. Fishkin, July 22, “The Wall Street Journal’s Tim Higgins has a new book arriving August 3rd titled POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. You can bet it’s a lively discussion with Tim on the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or listen.. https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-226-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 225, Zoom-Cast Episode 225 w/Kevin Biesty, Deputy Director for Policy @ Arizona DoT
F. Fishkin, July 22, “Chandler, Arizona is the one place where paying customers can take advantage of driverless robo-taxis (from Waymo) to get where they are going. How did that happen? What does the future hold? Kevin Biesty, Arizona’s Deputy Director for Policy at the Department of Transportation, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for an in depth discussion. Plus.. Ford, Argo, Lyft, Tesla, Mercedes & more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 224, Zoom-Cast Episode 224 w/Selika Josiah Talbot, Principal, Autonomous Vehicle Consulting
F. Fishkin, July 19, “Does there need to be a White House appointed autonomous and electric vehicle czar to open up new mobility possibilities for all? That’s the view of Selika Josiah Talbott..a government veteran who now heads Autonomous Vehicle Consulting and lectures at American University. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a deeper look at how the technology can be deployed to improve lives.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 223, Zoom-Cast Episode 223 w/Richard Mudge, Compass Transp. & Baruch Feigenbaum, Reason Foundation
F. Fishkin, July 15, “Can Tesla (and others) make automatic emergency braking work? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser continues his push and is joined by the Reason Foundation’s Baruch Feigenbaum and Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge along with co-host Fred Fishkin to explore this week’ss Transportation Research Board sessions. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 222, Zoom-Cast Episode 222
F. Fishkin, July 11, “Is it time for autopilot to not break the law? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser says yes. And if technology can save lives, prevent injuries and crashes shouldn’t it? Plus Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, Waymo, VW and more on Episode 222 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221, Zoom-Cast Episode 221 w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox
F. Fishkin, July 1, “With Zoox the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company’s vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220 w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times
F. Fishkin, July 1, “Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That’s a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill…who joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that…plus Tesla…autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu.
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
###
November
12, 2021
blue;
text-decoration:
none;">
[First across the Forth – and a royal visit](https://vivarail.co.uk/first-across-the-forth-and-a-royal-visit/) H. Posner,
Nov 10,
"UK-based
rolling stock
& battery
technology
manufacturer
Vivarail noted
a number of
achievements
during the
first week of
the COP26 UN
Climate Change
Conference in
Glasgow. The
opening
Saturday of
the conference
on Saturday
October 30 saw
a historic run
across the
Firth of
Forth,. as the
first electric
train across
the iconic
bridge.
Vivarail was
asked to
operate its
battery train
for
demonstration
runs through
the conference
as part of the
official
Network Rail
Green
Trains@COP26
event. Each
day the train
has taken
delegates and
invited guests
from around
the world to
showcase the
best of new
emission-free
technology. In
the first week
the train
carried
hundreds of
people from
government,
industry,
academia,
media and
advocacy
groups. ... "
[Read more](https://vivarail.co.uk/first-across-the-forth-and-a-royal-visit/) Hmmmm...
But you know that the Pop-Up Metro train was the
First Across
the Atlantic.
[Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSjAozf2r3g),
[Slides](http://rrdc.com/presentation_NJ_TransAction_2020_10_PUM.pdf)
and [ZoomCast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFyRcbL6-N8)
re: [Pop-Up Metro](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2021/august/future-of-rail-transit.html).
And there is
always [Alain](https://www.dropbox.com/s/hkt1zu1c6joq9ch/ClimbingOn6998.JPG?dl=0)
climbing on [#6988](https://www.icloud.com/photos/#0twHZBw5LwCqIbK_4HJoHjyOQ).😎
.
Absolutely
Fantastic
Henry. Alain
November
4, 2021
[Tesla's handling of braking bug in public self-driving test raises alarms](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-11-03/teslas-handling-braking-bug-in-public-self-driving-test)
R. Mitchell,
Nov. 3, "Tesla
pushed out a
new version of
the
experimental
software suite
it calls Full
Self-Driving
to approved
drivers Oct.
23 through an
"over the air"
update.
The next
morning, Tesla
learned the
update had
altered cars'
behavior in a
way the
company's
engineers
hadn't
intended.
In a recall
report to
federal safety
regulators
Friday, Tesla
put the
problems like
this: The
company
discovered a
software
glitch that
"can produce
negative
object
velocity
detections
when other
vehicles are
present."
In everyday
English,
Tesla's
automatic
braking system
was engaging
for no
apparent
reason,
causing cars
to rapidly
decelerate as
they traveled
down the
highway,
putting them
at risk of
being
rear-ended.
Forward
collision
warning chimes
were ringing
too, even
though there
was no
impending
collision to
warn about...
Tesla's
response to
the glitch
raises its own
concerns.
While its
engineers
worked to fix
the software,
they turned
off automatic
braking and
forward
collision
warning for
the software
testers over
the weekend,
the company
said. ..." [Read more](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-11-03/teslas-handling-braking-bug-in-public-self-driving-test) Hmmmm...
At least the
AEB was on
this time
around. I
still contend
that previous
versions FSD
(and
autoPilot) had
AEB turned off
because of
AEB's
propensity for false-positives. Tesla's problems/challenges is today NOT with FSD. It
is with AEB.
It must solve
the AEB's
false-positive
problem BEFORE
it goes back
trying to
improve FSD.
A satisfactory
AEB is a
necessary
precursor
to any FSD.
To date, Tesla
has put the
cart before
the horse.
It's not
pretty!
Emergency braking happens because weird things happen while driving. Disrespecting the system that is supposed to save you when weird things happen is very short-sighted. Explicitly turning it off is totally irresponsible and potentially criminal. Alain October 29, 2021
Tesla pulled its latest ‘Full Self Driving’ beta after testers complained about false crash warnings and other bugs
R. Lawler, Oct
24, "Tesla's
decision to
test its "Full
Self Driving"
advanced
driver
assistance
software with
untrained
vehicle owners
on public
roads has
attracted [scrutiny](https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/13/22724171/nhtsa-tesla-letters-fsd-beta-autopilot-recall-emergency-vehicles)
and [criticism](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/22/21528508/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-first-reaction-video),
and that was
before this
latest
release.
Version 10.3
began rolling
out on
Saturday night
/ Sunday
morning with [a long list of release notes](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/qem0lu/fsd_bets_103_release_notes/).
The list
mentions
changes
starting with
introducing
driver
profiles that
can swap
between
different
characteristics
for following
distance,
rolling stops,
or exiting
passing lanes.
It's supposed
to better
detect brake
lights, turn
signals, and
hazard lights
from other
vehicles,
along with
reduced false
slowdowns and
improved
offsetting for
pedestrians.
However, on
Sunday
afternoon Elon
Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1452345284483235841)
that Tesla is
"Seeing some
issues with
10.3, so
rolling back
to 10.2
temporarily."
[Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/24/22743628/elon-musk-tesla-fsd-beta-10-3-rollback-issues-phantom-fcw) Hmmmm...
The problems stem from version
10.3 loading
with Automated
Emergency
Braking (AEB)
enabled. Most
everything is
OK if AEB is
disabled.
Which, of
course, is the
fundamental
problem with
AutoPilot and
FSD...
Tesla got ahead of itself figuring that autoPilot and then FSD were so much better> That made their “buggy” and thus annoying AEB superfluous. Rather than fix a lowly “Level 1” system, they simply may have turned it off.
They may finally realize that the AEB functionality is really needed and it needs to be almost perfect. Exceedingly few false positives or false negatives. Wow… Not so simple. They have a lot of hard work to do to fix what they had previously shoved under the rug. Alain October 24, 2021
[Amazon's self-driving cars are coming to downtown Seattle. Safety advocates are not pleased](https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/22/cars/tesla-missy-cummings/index.html) K.
Long, Oct 19,
"... But an
announcement
Monday from
Amazon's
self-driving
car unit Zoox
that it will
soon start
testing its
autonomous
vehicles in
downtown
Seattle drew
criticism from transportation-safety advocates. The early promise of the technology,
they said, has
been
overshadowed
by a string of
crashes and
near-misses,
due in part to
lax oversight
of the rapidly
growing
sector..." [Read more](https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/22/cars/tesla-missy-cummings/index.html) Hmmmm...
First news out
of the box
from the home
town paper is this?? So discouraging. You
just can't
win. 😭
Alain
October 10,
2021
[A Tesla mystery: Why didn't auto-braking stop these crashes?](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-10-07/why-arent-automatic-braking-systems-stopping-deadly-tesla-crashes)
[In Spanish](https://www.latimes.com/espanol/eeuu/articulo/2021-10-09/por-que-los-sistemas-de-freno-automatico-no-paran-los-accidentes-mortales-de-tesla)
R. Mitchel, Oct 7, “Compared with so-called advanced driver assistance systems such as Autopilot, a forward collision avoidance system is relatively crude. It is designed to answer one question — is a frontal impact imminent? — and respond to danger by sounding a warning and, if necessary, triggering a subsystem called automatic emergency braking. Unlike Autopilot, which must be selected manually and is available only under some driving conditions, automatic emergency braking runs by default unless manually turned off….
Tesla calls its vehicles “the safest cars in the world,” citing their combination of structural engineering and advanced technology. But when it comes to the forward collision avoidance system, Tesla owners have been reporting problems at a substantially elevated rate compared with similarly equipped cars….
“Teslas are running into stationary objects,” said Alain Kornhauser, who heads the driverless car engineering program at Princeton University. “They shouldn’t be.” If the company’s cars can’t avoid crash scenes marked by flares or traffic cones, he said, “how can you trust anything else they do with Autopilot?”…
One possibility, according to Missy Cummings, a former Navy fighter pilot who studies human-machine interaction at Duke University, is that Autopilot is designed to preempt or suppress emergency braking to minimize what’s known as phantom braking.
"I haven't
seen the code
to say how
Tesla works,
but I suspect
the AEB is
turned off in
some
situations,"
she said. "If
it were left
on it may
detect what
are called
phantom
objects and
would be
slamming on
the
brakes."... "
[Read more](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-10-07/why-arent-automatic-braking-systems-stopping-deadly-tesla-crashes) Hmmmm...
This story is
great and is
not what
anyone else
has written.
Thank you,
Russ, for
doing all of
the research
and hard work
that you put
into this
article.
I agree with Missy, (I haven’t seen the code either), but, rest assured, a perception algorithm is part of each of Tesla’s automated systems that “drive” their cars some of the time, be it its forward collision avoidance system (FCAS), autoPilot or FSD. They may each have its own or the best one is used in all three, but each has an FCAS; else, Teslas would never know to invoke any of the driving sub-tasks, like slow down or speed up or stay in the lane, or don’t hit me, or … If a Tesla perception system detects an objects that doesn’t exist and locates it as being in the lane ahead, i.e. a “stationary phantom object in the lane ahead”, then that perception system will signal to the automated driving system… to slow down and don’t hit it. If Tesla’s human driver is paying attention to what is going on and, of course, doesn’t see the phantom object (it is phantom = not real), then the alert driver is justified in losing trust that FCAS, autoPilot or FSD is reliable and won’t kill. The erosion of that trust leads to complaints, demands for refunds and substantial problems for Tesla.
Tesla has simply gotten ahead of itself in trying to get to Driverless too quickly, rather than making sure that Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) works better than “good enough”. My guess is, Tesla perception algorithm simply ignores stationary objects detected in the lane ahead and those detected to be to the side of the lane ahead.
Ignoring detected stationary objects is perfectly appropriate when following a car ahead. The car ahead didn’t crash into that detected stationary object ahead, so the coast is clear! I’ll be able to pass under/to the side/over it too! If the car ahead crashes into that object, Its sudden deceleration is readily perceived by the trailing Tesla’s AEB. As long as the Tesla has not been tailgating (which a good AEB should disallow), the Tesla should be able to stop in time to avoid crashing into the new pileup ahead. All easy, and likely not the scenario in any of the NHTSA crash investigations.
Not so easy if the Tesla is the lead vehicle, especially if the vehicle that the Tesla was following suddenly changes lanes and is no longer explicitly confirming that the Tesla’s road ahead is traversable, It is now the Tesla’s job to determine if it can pass under a stationary object in the lane ahead. That is simply not easy to do reliably. Not easy to determine the clearance under an overpass/sign/traffic light/tree canopy while approaching said overpass/… at any significant speed. If the object is classified as an overpass/sign/traffic light/tree canopy, the chance are really good that “passing under” is a breeze. However, if classification of the object is uncertain, then all bets are off.
I strongly suspect that Tesla’s perception algorithm disregards all stationary objects ahead when leading as well as when following. NHTSA has to tell Tesla to not do that any more!!! Tesla must go back, essentially to the beginning, and figure out how to reliably determine if it can pass under, beside or over stationary objects detected in the road ahead. Alain
1, 2021
blue;
text-decoration:
none;"> [Cruise gets the green light to give driverless rides to passengers in San Francisco](https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/30/22702962/cruise-waymo-california-dmv-autonomous-vehicle-permit) A.
Hawkins, Sep
30, "Waymo and
Cruise, two of
the leading
autonomous
vehicle
companies in
the US,
received
permits from
the California
Department of
Motor Vehicles
to offer rides
to passengers
in their
robotaxis.
But while
Cruise was
approved to
give rides in
its [fully driverless vehicles](https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/5/22520227/cruise-permit-california-driverless-autonomous-vehicles)
without safety
drivers, Waymo
only is
allowed to
deploy its
autonomous
vehicles with
a human
monitor behind
the wheel. In
order to give
rides to
paying
passengers in
its fully
driverless
vehicles, as
it does in
Arizona, the
Google spinoff
would need to
apply for an [additional permit from the California Public Utilities Commission](https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21591045/california-robotaxi-paid-rides-cpuc-permits).
... " [Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/30/22702962/cruise-waymo-california-dmv-autonomous-vehicle-permit) Hmmmm... Congratulations Kyle, Robert and everyone else!!!! This is a non-trivial accomplishment!
Given all of the additional knocks on your door that will naturally come your way, we hope that you’ll keep us in mind. We here in NJ have assembled an enormously welcoming and realistic environment for Deployment to a customer base that will fundamentally benefit and cherish the Equitable, Affordable, High-Quality, Safe Mobility that is delivered by your Driverless Technology.
Hopefully
you'll divert
a little
bandwidth to
our upcoming "[5th Annual SDC Summit](https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit)",
New Jersey's
next step in
our process to
help you and
possibly
others get to
where you've
gotten in
California.
We are new
kids on the
block, but
we've really
gotten our act
together to
work with you
and others to
catch up
quickly and
really improve
the
quality-of-life
for many here
in New
Jersey, and
the rest of
the NorthEast.
Again… Congratulations! So pleased and so well deserved! Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
609-980-1427 (c)
This list is maintained by Alain Kornhauser and hosted by the Princeton University LISTSERV.