9.42 - ADASBeging2Work
November 20, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;">42st edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
The impact of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) on insurance claims (True Impact of ADAS Features on Insurance Claim Severity Revealed)
J. Kanet, Nov 9, "Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have improved automobile safety by minimizing the factor most frequently associated with car accidents – human error. The conventional wisdom has been that ADAS technologies should mitigate the number of insurance claims, but the impact of ADAS on claim severity has been less clear. ADAS features include expensive and complex technical components and are often installed on exposed areas of vehicles, making them susceptible to damage from a collision.
This white paper examines the multivariate effect of ADAS features on claim severity. It is a follow up to our earlier report, ADAS Analysis Creates Path for Auto Insurance Rating, which analyzed the impact of ADAS systems on claim frequency. For both analyses, LexisNexis Risk Solutions considered the same sample of 11 million vehicles from model years 2014-2019, and reviewed industry-wide claims loss data for bodily injury, property damage and collision coverages. For this follow-up report, we looked at the interactions between a core list of ADAS features and quantified the claim severity differential across all 648 possible combinations of those features. ... " Read more
Hmmmm... Excellent. Finally there is data that supports that ADAS is indeed fundamentally good for the insurance industry in that it allows them to make more money. Not to be crass, but "crash mitigation" (airbag, energy absorbing car design, ...) has been great for safety... saving lives, reducing occupant severity , ... but, the liabilities associated with crash mitigation have increased. Claim Severity for both Physical Damage and Bodily Injury have gone up. Cars are more expensive to repair and it costs more if you live than if you die. 🙁,.
For years I've been arguing that ADAS focused squarely on Crash Prevention {automated collision avoidance (that actually works well... does kick automatically to avoid collision 😎), not just "warning" (that is annoying. Because since it is just a warning there is no pressure to make it work well... just cover your butt! So, no pressure to make it work well. Consequently, "everyone" turns it off to avoid being annoyed... 🙁} is Automation's best opportunity to deliver real safety... Save lives, ..., and make $$$ for the Insurance industry!
For years, I've postulated that as soon as {"the expected liability savings for ADAS (the difference in the expected liability for me with&without...)" < (less than) "incremental cost of ADAS on the price of a car that I am about to buy (difference with&without)"}, my insurance agent (the Gecko, Flo, NJM, or ???) should insist on picking up the tab on the price difference as long as I continue to pay my existing premiums! Nothing but a win-win! I win because the probability that I die... is lower and the Gecko, Flo, NJM, or ??? smile all the way to the bank😎. These are real market forces.
This is the first report that I've seen that begins to quaintly the reduction in "expected liability" of ADAS based on real experiential data. To me, this is major!
Be sure to see the white paper True Impact of ADAS Features on Insurance Claim Severity Revealed and listen/watch the SDC Pod/ZoomCast 242. Alain
SmartDrivingCars
Pod-Cast Episode 242, Zoom-Cast Episode 242 w/Gabe Hinton & Dick Mudge
F. Fishkin, Nov. 16, "LexisNexis Risk Solutions has determined that advanced driver assistance systems are helping insurers. Should they lower premiums? Senior Scientist and researcher Gabe Hinton joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and Dick Mudge from Compass Transportation and Technology for a look at the issues.
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
We tried Tesla's 'full self-driving.' Here's what happened
M. McFarland, Nov. 18, "... Asking "full self-driving" to navigate Brooklyn felt like asking a student driver to take on a road test they weren't ready for yet.... " Read more
Hmmmm... There are many other good quotes in this article and the video is a must watch reality check. Brooklyn is tough! Can you imagine Manhattan???
On the other hand, it is really impressive in what it does do. It has come a long way AND has a long way yet to go. That is the reality... We still have much more to do before society begins to really reap any of the benefits of this technology. So let's get out of Silicon Valley's swashbuckling "fake it till you make it" culture, put our heads down, and keep working. I'm still confident we can make it and let's absolutely stop faking it! Alain
Elizabeth Holmes Begins Her Defense in Fraud Trial
E. Griffin, Nov. 19, "... And on Friday, the person whom prosecutors have been making their case against — Elizabeth Holmes, the founder of the failed blood testing start-up Theranos — took the stand to defend herself. She faces 11 counts of defrauding investors over Theranos's technology and business in a case that has been billed as a referendum on Silicon Valley's start-up culture. She has pleaded not guilty...." Read more
Hmmmm... "If convicted, Ms. Holmes, 37, faces up to 20 years in prison. While high-profile start-up founders from Uber's Travis Kalanick to WeWork's Adam Neumann have experienced swift falls from grace over ethics scandals, Ms. Holmes may become one of the few to go to jail for it." .... Interesting that the women go to jail and the men ... Whew! Alain
Solutions for the Shortage of Truck Drivers
Opinion, Nov. 20, "... The current truck driver shortage is rooted in sweatshop working conditions imposed by the trucking industry, not a lack of qualified drivers...." Read more
Hmmmm... I support Jane Claybrook's Opinion and Automated Driver Assistance (ADAS) for truckers as the real opportunity to improve working conditions and attract new drivers. Drivers need help in order to be able to notDie and feed their families. That should be THE primary focus of automated technology. NOT... taking the driver out of the truck. Way too early to even think about that. Sorry Ariel and all of the "SoftBanks" of this world.
See also: "The Supply-Chain Crisis Is Creating a Rare Opportunity for Truck Drivers" Alain
TuSimple readies autonomous runs to UPS hubs in Florida, North Carolina
S. Fuller, Nov. 3, "TuSimple is working with UPS Supply Chain Solutions to expand its Autonomous Freight Network and begin commercial runs to UPS North American Air Freight terminals in Orlando, Florida, and Charlotte, North Carolina, TuSimple announced Wednesday...." Read more
Hmmmm... Surprised to not see the word "driverless" between "begin" and "commercial". ???? (my italics above). See also the "Drive Insight" piece of the above. Alain
Prepare to pay more for electricity after Pennsylvania approves Peco rate increase
A. Maykuth, Nov. 18, "Peco Energy electric bills will increase about 6.6% on Jan. 1 under a proposal the state approved Thursday, which also enhances the Philadelphia utility's support for electric vehicle charging infrastructure...." Read more
Hmmmm...Can you imagine the headlines in 2030 when "20%" of rich people and "40%' of environmentalists own electric cars and we've stopped using coal to create the electrons and ... Again we are going to need to get from the existing LL Energy Chart to one without coal and ??.??% less petroleum on the left and roughly the same right hand side. If Supply of electricity doesn't keep pace with that kind of increasing Demand, then what does the 2030 electricity situation look like compared to the Gas Shortages in 1970s America? 😭 Alain
Race to the Future: What to Know About the Frantic Quest for Cobalt
E. Lipton,, Nov 20, "The clean energy revolution is replacing oil and gas with a new global force: the minerals and metals needed in electric car batteries, solar panels and other forms of renewable energy.
Places like the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produces two-thirds of the world's supply of cobalt, for example, are stepping into the kinds of roles once played by Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich nations. And a race between China and the United States to secure supplies could have far-reaching implications for the shared goal of protecting the planet.
An investigation by The New York Times drew on interviews with more than 100 people on three continents and thousands of pages of financial, diplomatic and other documents. Here are some of the findings...." Read more
Hmmmm... Does the Congo become the new Saudi Arabia of 2030 and beyond????? Alain
Bill Gates' TerraPower aims to build its first advanced nuclear reactor in a coal town in Wyoming
C. Clifford, Nov. 17, "TerraPower, a start-up co-founded by Bill Gates to revolutionize designs for nuclear reactors, has chosen Kemmerer, Wyoming, as the preferred location for its first demonstration reactor. It aims to build the plant in the frontier-era coal town by 2028... " Read more
Hmmmm... Or... Does Does Bill Gates become the knight in shining armor that save's the day. I've "always" been a big fan of "neighborhood nukes". Alain
Apple hits record high on report that it's targeting a 2025 rollout of an autonomous electric vehicle
Staff, Nov. 18, "Apple stock surged 3% to a record high and eclipsed Microsoft in market cap on Thursday after Bloomberg reported that the iPhone maker is accelerating its development of an electric car that is fully autonomous..." Read more
Hmmmm... Will there ever be any real substance behind this initiative or is it all about bling? Alain
Miami commission votes to banish electric scooters from its streets
A. Hawkins, Nov. 19, "The Miami City Commission has voted to end its multiyear experiment with shared electric scooters. In a four to five vote, the commission approved a "pocket item" (a last-minute legislative maneuver) to end the Miami scooter pilot. The ordinance went into effect at midnight November 18th...." Read more
Hmmmm... Yea!!! One almost ran me down on the sidewalk along Nassau Street!. Since I'd probably kill myself and others if I tried one, I'm one of the old guys yelling... Yea!!! 😎 Alain
Uber One bundles rides, deliveries, and food for $50 per year
A. Hawkins, Nov. 17, "... Uber One members won't have to pay a delivery fee for takeout and groceries, will have priority access to top rated drivers and couriers, and get $5 cash back on late deliveries. They'll also get other "exclusive perks," such as various promotions and "invite-only experiences."..." Read more
Hmmmm... Great idea if your fundamental product scales... unit costs of production gets cheaper the more you sell. Unfortunately, not true with labor intensive products such as home delivery and chauffeuring. These costs get higher because those willing to gig for little or nothing is a very limited resource. At some point one needs revenue to cover their cost of living.
However, this is a great idea if folks just pay for the membership and never use it. This is successful if Uber shrinks. Alain
Tesla has a serious phantom braking problem in Autopilot
F. Lambert, Nov. 15, "Tesla is seeing an increase in complaints over serious and dangerous phantom braking events plaguing Autopilot in the latest software updates.
Phantom braking is a term used to describe when an advanced driver assist system (ADAS) or a self-driving system applies the brakes for no good reason...." Read more
Hmmmm... It is interesting that this only becomes a problem when Tesla's Automated Emergency Braking system (AEBs) in not disabled. That's a real "Hmmmm... " Alain
Tesla (TSLA) is in a position to grab $2.5 trillion of EV market, says top analyst
F. Lambert, Nov. 19, "Dan Ives from Wedbush, one of the top 10 ranked stock analysts in the world, has increased his price target on Tesla's stock (TSLA) as he believes the automaker will take a significant part of the growing EV market.
In a new note to clients today, Wedbush announced that it is increasing its price target on Tesla from $1,100 per share to $1,400...." Read more
Hmmmm... Wow!! Glad I bought a few shares a month or so ago. So happy for those who jumped on much earlier than I did (and glad I've never shorted anything). This may end up being my first non-"buy-high-sell-low" investment decision.😁 Alain
+++++++++++++++++++
5th Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit: Deployment of Equitable Affordable, High Quality Mobility throughout New Jersey
Date Change: Thursday evening, May 5, through Saturday May 7, 2022. Live in Trenton, New Jersey.
"Everything" was going well wrt the 5th Summit Nov 18->20; however...
Time is very short, we must focus on the election and the realities of where we remain with Covid really put cold water on some aspects of our vision for November.
Consequently. I've become convinced that it is very much better, that we take our time and reschedule for the first week on May 2022 rather than rush for what isn't as good as could be.
By May we will have received responses to our upcoming RfI for "Equitable ... Mobility in Trenton". We will thus have a better idea on "Who", from the "What & How" communities, "Want & Can" Deploy "Equitable ... Mobility" starting in Trenton with real expectations of scaling throughout New Jersey.
In May the 5th Summit can better achieve its fundamental purpose by allowing all of us in New Jersey to better learn from others around the world the "Whats & Hows" and have the possible "Whos" get a better appreciation of the "Equitable ... Mobility" desires of Trentonians and other New Jersians.
Rescheduling the Summit to be between the RfI and the RfP steps of our Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) Deployment Process, will better enable our Community Engagement initiative to shape our ultimate deployment. We'll thus deliver even better mobility equitably and best improve quality-of-life in Trenton and throughout New Jersey.
Please pencil into your calendar the new dates of May 5 (Thursday evening) though May 7 (Trenton Mobility Festival Saturday). 😎 Please let me know if these dates work for you.
Sorry about the delay, but many will be relieved by this change. Plus, early May is really nice in NJ.😁
Alain
This 5th Summit is inspired by the many levels of public-sector, community and neighborhood welcoming and support that now exists in New Jersey for the deployment of equitable, affordable, high-quality mobility. This is now made possible by automated driving technology that is especially targeted to serve those who, for whatever reason, don't have access to their own personal car.
The Princeton SDC Summits were initiated in 2017 to provide a venue for the open discussion of how technology, in particular automation, can be shaped to improve mobility of people and goods between and within cities. Early on, we realized that this form of mobility could easily provide yet another alternative to those who are fortunate enough to enjoy one or many high quality mobility options.
But, more importantly, it became obvious that substantial improvement in quality-of-life and equitable mobility can readily be made available to the un-served and under-served. Those who cannot drive themselves, cannot afford the transport alternatives that exist for them, or who live in areas where, for either economic or other reasons, neither public nor private desirable forms of transport are offered. Furthermore, such initial Operational Design Domains (OODs) can be readily expanded and replicated to allow the vast investments continuing to be made in this technology to actually yield their envisioned societal and financial benefits.
The recently completed 4th Summit set the groundwork for these initial deployments to benefit under-served communities. Communities with many households having access to one or fewer cars and with challenged transit alternatives. We concluded the 4th Summit by envisioning a deployment throughout Trenton, NJ, a community where 70% of the households have access to one or fewer cars.
We believe that Trenton is a perfect ODD to begin to deliver Equitable, Affordable, High-quality Mobility, in addition to being environmentally responsible, safe and comfortable.
The opportunity to expand throughout Mercer County and replicate this deployment scenario throughout the State exists. This deployment will serves as a blueprint for the future for many other "Trentons" of this world.
The groundwork set by the 4th Summit and the NJ Autonomous Vehicle Task Force has enabled us to create a "most welcoming environment" in New Jersey for creating a Public-Private Partnership to deliver this enhanced mobility to the residents of Trenton and all New Jersians. The 5th Summit will focus directly on deploymentin Trenton and will take place in Trenton. We also envision its expansion throughout Mercer County and its replication in and around New Jersey's other major cities.
The Technical portion of the summit will be in the morning, through lunch, of Friday, May 6 and Saturday, May 7.
Sessions will be free of charge but will require advance registration, as seating will be limited.
The Societal portion focused on engaging the customers of this form of mobility, featuring descriptions, discussions, interactions, exhibits and technology demonstrations, will be free and open to the public, with preference given to Trenton residents on Friday and residents of Mercer County and the rest of New Jersey on Saturday. Link to Sponsorship Opportunities Link to Draft Program Link to Registration
C'mon Man!(These folks didn't get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
More On....
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Poser'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines" . See slides, See video
Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain
4thAnnual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.
Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April 18, "It's time to hit the start button," is Fred Fishkin's succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times' Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen: Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to "the Trentons of the World."
Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,....." Read more
Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle's Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
15th Session Making it Happen - Part One: Elected Officials' Role in Creating a Welcoming Environment in the Trentons of this World
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
Michael Sena's Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021"Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the "Trentons" of this World"
Orf467F20_FinalReport "Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System" Kornhauser & He, March 2021 "AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative"
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Thursday (evening), May 5, Welcome Reception (Registration required)
Friday, May 6, Equitable Mobility Innovation Forum (Registration required)
Saturday, May 7, Equitable Mobility Festival (Open to All)
Trenton, NJ
Live in Person
On the More Technical Side http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean's AV Research Group at U of Texas
and The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, "Recordings from the conference: Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: (Cybersecurity): https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY
Session 3: (Automated Driving Systems): https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc
Session 4: (Communications for ADS) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso Read more
Hmmmm... Russ, thank you for sharing! Alain
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 241, Zoom-Cast Episode 241 w/Danny Shapiro, nVIDIA
F. Fishkin, Nov. 11, "NVIDIA's GTC GPU Technology Conference was filled with innovations that can change lives...and save lives. The company's CEO declared someday everything that moves will be autonomous...either fully or mostly. NVIDIA Automotive VP Danny Shapiro joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for the latest Smart Driving Cars. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 240, Zoom-Cast Episode 240 AEB&FSD
F. Fishkin, Nov. 6, "Tesla, full self driving and the need for a fix. Cruise goes driverless in San Francisco, Waymo Driver heads to NYC while Aurora debuts on Wall Street. That and more in episode 240 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 239, Zoom-Cast Episode 239 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Oct 28, "Will there be an uprising if a crush of electric vehicles results in overwhelmed power grids? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to dive into the issues. Plus the latest on Tesla, the Hertz and Uber deals and more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 238, Zoom-Cast Episode 238 w/Chunk Mui, Futurist
F. Fishkin,Oct 18, "With his new book "A Brief History of a Perfect Future..Inventing the World We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050", author and futurist Chunka Mui informs us how rapidly advancing technology can solve many problems including mobility and transportation. The questions? And a surprise offer from Chunka (keep watching) ...in Episode 238 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or you can listen to episode 238 of Smart Driving Cars".
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 237, Zoom-Cast Episode 237 Aurora aTaxi & aTrucking
F. Fishkin,Oct 18, "Aurora is planning subscription services for autonomous trucking & ride hailing. Passenger buttons to stop and start are part of Motional's planned self driving taxi experience. And Tesla's Texas insurance rates to be based on real time driving behavior. Plus more in Episode 237 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 236, Zoom-Cast Episode 236 w/Russ Mitchell, LA Times Staff Writer
F. Fishkin, Sept. 30, "The Tesla automatic braking mystery. Los Angeles Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to to explore the questions surrounding automatic emergency braking in Teslas and other cars. The systems have to work before there can be autonomous mobility. Plus GM unveils Ultra Cruise, the 5th annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit moves to May and actor William Shatner prepares for liftoff."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 235, Zoom-Cast Episode 235 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Sept. 30, "So what is a car company? Appearances can be deceiving. Join The Dispatcher publisher & consultant Michael Sena on Episode 235 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus much more on the upcoming summit and mobility for all... "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 234, Zoom-Cast Episode 234 1st Preview of 5th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
F. Fishkin, Sept. 26, "Tesla reportedly has built 300 thousand cars in Shanghai so far this year despite the chip shortage. FedEx & Aurora partner for autonomous trucking in Texas. And dramatic developments in advance of the upcoming 5th annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Tune in to Smart Driving Cars… and subscribe.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 233, Zoom-Cast Episode 233 w Prof. Adriano Alessandriniat the U. of Florence
F. Fishkin, Sept. 18 "What will it take to deliver autonomous mobility for all? For one thing, improved road systems, says Professor Adriano Alessandrini at the University of Florence. The author of The Role of Infrastructure for a Safe Transition to Automated Driving joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a spirited discussion on that, plus Waymo and new details on bringing new mobility to New Jersey and the upcoming Princeton Smart Driving Car SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 232, Zoom-Cast Episode 232 w Steven Shladover
F. Fishkin, Sept. 4 "Cameras alone aren't enough to get Tesla or anyone else to driverless mobility. So says UC Berkeley's Steven Shladover, a leading autonomous vehicle research engineer. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the need for more regulation from Washington, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota, Motional and more. Watch or listen to Smart Driving Cars Episode 232 and subscribe!"
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 231, Zoom-Cast Episode 231 w Michael Sena, Creator of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Aug 27, "What's wrong with the concept of building electric vehicles on a skateboard type platform? Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus Tesla, Waymo and more. And the next Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit is on the way. Watch or listen…and subscribe! Or listen."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 230, Zoom-Cast Episode 230 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
F. Fishkin, Aug 21, "Teslas, Humanoids and Elevators! What Elon Musk and Tesla delivered at AI Day 2021 was insight into the company's remarkable technology and that may boost recruiting efforts. So says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser who is joined by co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal, author of POWER PLAY… Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. AI Day, the NHTSA investigation and Elon Musk hops on the elevator on Episode 230 of Smart Driving Cars!
Or you can listen to Episode 230 of Smart Driving Cars on Tesla's AI Day and more with guest Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal ..author of POWER PLAY... Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 229, Zoom-Cast Episode 229 w/Russ Mitchell, Los Angeles Times
F. Fishkin, Aug 18, "With the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration having opened an investigation into Tesla autopilot crashes involving emergency vehicles…Los Angeles Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the issues facing Tesla and other vehicle makers."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 228, Zoom-Cast Episode 228 Planes, Trains & Automobiles
F. Fishkin, Aug 13, "Planes, trains and automobiles. From battery powered electric light rail to the confusion over the difference between driver assistance and self driving to Amazon's new 1.5 billion dollar U.S. air cargo hub…the focus is on the latest in mobility. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 228 of Smart Driving Cars. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 226, Zoom-Cast Episode 226 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
F. Fishkin, July 22, "The Wall Street Journal's Tim Higgins has a new book arriving August 3rd titled POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. You can bet it's a lively discussion with Tim on the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or listen.. https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-226-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 225, Zoom-Cast Episode 225 w/Kevin Biesty, Deputy Director for Policy @ Arizona DoT
F. Fishkin, July 22, "Chandler, Arizona is the one place where paying customers can take advantage of driverless robo-taxis (from Waymo) to get where they are going. How did that happen? What does the future hold? Kevin Biesty, Arizona's Deputy Director for Policy at the Department of Transportation, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for an in depth discussion. Plus.. Ford, Argo, Lyft, Tesla, Mercedes & more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 224, Zoom-Cast Episode 224 w/Selika Josiah Talbot, Principal, Autonomous Vehicle Consulting
F. Fishkin, July 19, "Does there need to be a White House appointed autonomous and electric vehicle czar to open up new mobility possibilities for all? That's the view of Selika Josiah Talbott..a government veteran who now heads Autonomous Vehicle Consulting and lectures at American University. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a deeper look at how the technology can be deployed to improve lives.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 223, Zoom-Cast Episode 223 w/Richard Mudge, Compass Transp. & Baruch Feigenbaum, Reason Foundation
F. Fishkin, July 15, "Can Tesla (and others) make automatic emergency braking work? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser continues his push and is joined by the Reason Foundation's Baruch Feigenbaum and Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge along with co-host Fred Fishkin to explore this week'ss Transportation Research Board sessions. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 222, Zoom-Cast Episode 222
F. Fishkin, July 11, "Is it time for autopilot to not break the law? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser says yes. And if technology can save lives, prevent injuries and crashes shouldn't it? Plus Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, Waymo, VW and more on Episode 222 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221, Zoom-Cast Episode 221 w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox
F. Fishkin, July 1, "With Zoox the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company's vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220 w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times
F. Fishkin, July 1, "Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That's a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill...who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that...plus Tesla...autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu.
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
November 12, 2021 blue; text-decoration: none;"> First across the Forth – and a royal visit H. Posner, Nov 10, "UK-based rolling stock & battery technology manufacturer Vivarail noted a number of achievements during the first week of the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow. The opening Saturday of the conference on Saturday October 30 saw a historic run across the Firth of Forth,. as the first electric train across the iconic bridge.
Vivarail was asked to operate its battery train for demonstration runs through the conference as part of the official Network Rail Green Trains@COP26 event. Each day the train has taken delegates and invited guests from around the world to showcase the best of new emission-free technology. In the first week the train carried hundreds of people from government, industry, academia, media and advocacy groups. ... " Read more
Hmmmm... But you know that the Pop-Up Metro train was the First Across the Atlantic. Video, Slides and ZoomCast re: Pop-Up Metro. And there is always Alain climbing on #6988.😎 . Absolutely Fantastic Henry. Alain
November 4, 2021
Tesla's handling of braking bug in public self-driving test raises alarms
R. Mitchell, Nov. 3, "Tesla pushed out a new version of the experimental software suite it calls Full Self-Driving to approved drivers Oct. 23 through an "over the air" update.
The next morning, Tesla learned the update had altered cars' behavior in a way the company's engineers hadn't intended.
In a recall report to federal safety regulators Friday, Tesla put the problems like this: The company discovered a software glitch that "can produce negative object velocity detections when other vehicles are present."
In everyday English, Tesla's automatic braking system was engaging for no apparent reason, causing cars to rapidly decelerate as they traveled down the highway, putting them at risk of being rear-ended. Forward collision warning chimes were ringing too, even though there was no impending collision to warn about...
Tesla's response to the glitch raises its own concerns. While its engineers worked to fix the software, they turned off automatic braking and forward collision warning for the software testers over the weekend, the company said. ..." Read more
Hmmmm... At least the AEB was on this time around. I still contend that previous versions FSD (and autoPilot) had AEB turned off because of AEB's propensity for false-positives. Tesla's problems/challenges is today NOT with FSD. It is with AEB. It must solve the AEB's false-positive problem BEFORE it goes back trying to improve FSD. A satisfactory AEB is a necessary precursor to any FSD. To date, Tesla has put the cart before the horse. It's not pretty!
Emergency braking happens because weird things happen while driving. Disrespecting the system that is supposed to save you when weird things happen is very short-sighted. Explicitly turning it off is totally irresponsible and potentially criminal. Alain October 29, 2021
Tesla pulled its latest 'Full Self Driving' beta after testers complained about false crash warnings and other bugs
R. Lawler, Oct 24, "Tesla's decision to test its "Full Self Driving" advanced driver assistance software with untrained vehicle owners on public roads has attracted scrutiny and criticism, and that was before this latest release.
Version 10.3 began rolling out on Saturday night / Sunday morning with a long list of release notes. The list mentions changes starting with introducing driver profiles that can swap between different characteristics for following distance, rolling stops, or exiting passing lanes. It's supposed to better detect brake lights, turn signals, and hazard lights from other vehicles, along with reduced false slowdowns and improved offsetting for pedestrians.
However, on Sunday afternoon Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla is "Seeing some issues with 10.3, so rolling back to 10.2 temporarily." Read more
Hmmmm... The problems stem from version 10.3 loading with Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) enabled. Most everything is OK if AEB is disabled. Which, of course, is the fundamental problem with AutoPilot and FSD...
Tesla got ahead of itself figuring that autoPilot and then FSD were so much better> That made their "buggy" and thus annoying AEB superfluous. Rather than fix a lowly "Level 1" system, they simply may have turned it off.
They may finally realize that the AEB functionality is really needed and it needs to be almost perfect. Exceedingly few false positives or false negatives. Wow... Not so simple. They have a lot of hard work to do to fix what they had previously shoved under the rug. Alain October 24, 2021
Amazon's self-driving cars are coming to downtown Seattle. Safety advocates are not pleased K. Long, Oct 19, "... But an announcement Monday from Amazon's self-driving car unit Zoox that it will soon start testing its autonomous vehicles in downtown Seattle drew criticism from transportation-safety advocates. The early promise of the technology, they said, has been overshadowed by a string of crashes and near-misses, due in part to lax oversight of the rapidly growing sector..." Read more
Hmmmm... First news out of the box from the home town paper is this?? So discouraging. You just can't win. 😭 Alain October 10, 2021
A Tesla mystery: Why didn't auto-braking stop these crashes? In Spanish
R. Mitchel, Oct 7, "Compared with so-called advanced driver assistance systems such as Autopilot, a forward collision avoidance system is relatively crude. It is designed to answer one question — is a frontal impact imminent? — and respond to danger by sounding a warning and, if necessary, triggering a subsystem called automatic emergency braking. Unlike Autopilot, which must be selected manually and is available only under some driving conditions, automatic emergency braking runs by default unless manually turned off....
Tesla calls its vehicles "the safest cars in the world," citing their combination of structural engineering and advanced technology. But when it comes to the forward collision avoidance system, Tesla owners have been reporting problems at a substantially elevated rate compared with similarly equipped cars....
"Teslas are running into stationary objects," said Alain Kornhauser, who heads the driverless car engineering program at Princeton University. "They shouldn't be." If the company's cars can't avoid crash scenes marked by flares or traffic cones, he said, "how can you trust anything else they do with Autopilot?"...
One possibility, according to Missy Cummings, a former Navy fighter pilot who studies human-machine interaction at Duke University, is that Autopilot is designed to preempt or suppress emergency braking to minimize what's known as phantom braking.
"I haven't seen the code to say how Tesla works, but I suspect the AEB is turned off in some situations," she said. "If it were left on it may detect what are called phantom objects and would be slamming on the brakes."... " Read more
Hmmmm... This story is great and is not what anyone else has written. Thank you, Russ, for doing all of the research and hard work that you put into this article.
I agree with Missy, (I haven't seen the code either), but, rest assured, a perception algorithm is part of each of Tesla's automated systems that "drive" their cars some of the time, be it its forward collision avoidance system (FCAS), autoPilot or FSD. They may each have its own or the best one is used in all three, but each has an FCAS; else, Teslas would never know to invoke any of the driving sub-tasks, like slow down or speed up or stay in the lane, or don't hit me, or ... If a Tesla perception system detects an objects that doesn't exist and locates it as being in the lane ahead, i.e. a "stationary phantom object in the lane ahead", then that perception system will signal to the automated driving system... to slow down and don't hit it. If Tesla's human driver is paying attention to what is going on and, of course, doesn't see the phantom object (it is phantom = not real), then the alert driver is justified in losing trust that FCAS, autoPilot or FSD is reliable and won't kill. The erosion of that trust leads to complaints, demands for refunds and substantial problems for Tesla.
Tesla has simply gotten ahead of itself in trying to get to Driverless too quickly, rather than making sure that Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) works better than "good enough". My guess is, Tesla perception algorithm simply ignores stationary objects detected in the lane ahead and those detected to be to the side of the lane ahead.
Ignoring detected stationary objects is perfectly appropriate when following a car ahead. The car ahead didn't crash into that detected stationary object ahead, so the coast is clear! I'll be able to pass under/to the side/over it too! If the car ahead crashes into that object, Its sudden deceleration is readily perceived by the trailing Tesla's AEB. As long as the Tesla has not been tailgating (which a good AEB should disallow), the Tesla should be able to stop in time to avoid crashing into the new pileup ahead. All easy, and likely not the scenario in any of the NHTSA crash investigations.
Not so easy if the Tesla is the lead vehicle, especially if the vehicle that the Tesla was following suddenly changes lanes and is no longer explicitly confirming that the Tesla's road ahead is traversable, It is now the Tesla's job to determine if it can pass under a stationary object in the lane ahead. That is simply not easy to do reliably. Not easy to determine the clearance under an overpass/sign/traffic light/tree canopy while approaching said overpass/... at any significant speed. If the object is classified as an overpass/sign/traffic light/tree canopy, the chance are really good that "passing under" is a breeze. However, if classification of the object is uncertain, then all bets are off.
I strongly suspect that Tesla's perception algorithm disregards all stationary objects ahead when leading as well as when following. NHTSA has to tell Tesla to not do that any more!!! Tesla must go back, essentially to the beginning, and figure out how to reliably determine if it can pass under, beside or over stationary objects detected in the road ahead. Alain
1, 2021 blue; text-decoration: none;"> Cruise gets the green light to give driverless rides to passengers in San Francisco A. Hawkins, Sep 30, "Waymo and Cruise, two of the leading autonomous vehicle companies in the US, received permits from the California Department of Motor Vehicles to offer rides to passengers in their robotaxis.
But while Cruise was approved to give rides in its fully driverless vehicles without safety drivers, Waymo only is allowed to deploy its autonomous vehicles with a human monitor behind the wheel. In order to give rides to paying passengers in its fully driverless vehicles, as it does in Arizona, the Google spinoff would need to apply for an additional permit from the California Public Utilities Commission. ... " Read more
Hmmmm... Congratulations Kyle, Robert and everyone else!!!! This is a non-trivial accomplishment!
Given all of the additional knocks on your door that will naturally come your way, we hope that you'll keep us in mind. We here in NJ have assembled an enormously welcoming and realistic environment for Deployment to a customer base that will fundamentally benefit and cherish the Equitable, Affordable, High-Quality, Safe Mobility that is delivered by your Driverless Technology.
Hopefully you'll divert a little bandwidth to our upcoming "5th Annual SDC Summit", New Jersey's next step in our process to help you and possibly others get to where you've gotten in California.
We are new kids on the block, but we've really gotten our act together to work with you and others to catch up quickly and really improve the quality-of-life for many here in New Jersey, and the rest of the NorthEast.
Again... Congratulations! So pleased and so well deserved! Alain
Link to previous SDC eLetters
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
alaink@princeton.edu
609-980-1427 (c)