B. Templeton, Dec. 20, "One of the key debates over the future of self-driving cars is how much of it will be robotaxis — Uber UBER +2.5%-style services which sell rides rather than cars, and how much will be sales of personal self-driving cars to private owners. This week this battle was prominent in the firing of Cruise CEO Dan Ammann by Mary Barra, CEO of GM over conflicts on this question. Amman saw a “robotaxi first” strategy with an IPO to capitalize on strong market interest in that business. Barra wanted Cruise to put more focus on technologies that could be used in GM’s traditional product lines." Read more Hmmmm... I guess that Brad has the inside information on Dan's firing. Nobody ever tells me anything that isn't public, so I can't really comment; however...
My
perspective
has been since
near "the
beginning"
that automated
driving
technologies
have two
largely
orthogonal
(very
different)
markets:
[log in to unmask]" _mf_state="1" title="null" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" class="" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
D. Welsh,
Dec. 19, "...
What seemed
abrupt to
outsiders and
people working
at Cruise had
been building
for months.
The two
executives
didn’t agree
on how to
focus the
breakthrough
self-driving
technology
that the
Silicon Valley
unit is
preparing to
launch with a
taxi
service..." Read more Hmmmm... Another good article
about this
break-up and
the struggle
between
initiatives
that have a
human as the
responsible
entity versus
having a
software/hardware/sensor/actuator
stack as the
responsible
entity. For
Driverless,
the Automated
Collision
Avoidance
aspects need
to be near
perfect. For
Self-driving,
not so much.
For
Driverless,
rules of the
road are
largely
sacrosanct.
For
self-driving,
you're damned
if you you
don't let the
driver be the
driver,
mis-behavior
and all. Two
businesses
that are
largely
orthogonal to
each other.
Alain
pinion,
Dec. 20, "In
recent years,
some Tesla
owners have
had the option
to buy a
$10,000
software
upgrade to
test what the
company calls
its “Full
Self-Driving”
package,
essentially
making
ordinary
drivers on
public roads
part of a vast
experiment of
the company’s
autonomous
vehicle
technology.
The problem
is, unlike a
real
experiment,
this one lacks
oversight to
track
successes and
failures, and
— most
importantly —
to ensure
public safety.
It’s time for
state and
federal
regulators to
step in. ...
... If the cars are not automated enough to be regulated as autonomous vehicles, then Tesla should not be allowed to market the technology as “Full Self-Driving.”
“I can call
my umbrella a
parachute, but
that doesn’t
make it true.
It just makes
it more
dangerous,”
notes Bryant
Walker Smith,
an expert in
autonomous
vehicle law at
the University
of South
Carolina."
..." Read
more Hmmmm...Well said! Since this is testing
on public
roads, the
public has a
right to know
and to weigh
in; else, the
testing can be
done on
private
property or in
simulation,
but good luck
with learning
very much.
I love Bryant Walker Smith's umbrella analogy. 😎 Alain
R.Albergotti,
Dec. 20, "
Kevin Smith
has a
love-hate
relationship
with driving.
He was
rear-ended
twice in a
short span of
time, his
daughter
crashed her
car weeks
after getting
her drivers
license and
his mother
chose to
surrender hers
after she
started
missing red
lights.
“I felt like I
needed better
driver
assistance or
I was going to
have a panic
attack,” he
said.
Smith is now
part of a
group of at
least 12,000
beta testers
for Tesla’s
polarizing
“Full
Self-Driving”
software,
which can
attempt many
everyday
driving tasks,
albeit
sometimes
unpredictably.
Despite its
flaws, Smith
believes it’s
safer. He is
willing to
take on the
task even if
he knows he
might have to
intervene when
software makes
mistakes:
running a red
light, driving
onto
light-rail
tracks or
nearly
striking a
person in a
crosswalk, all
scenarios that
beta testers
interviewed by
The Washington
Post have
encountered on
the road... "
Read
more Hmmmm...All likely true; however, Why
over-sell it.
A little
humility and
cooperation
with the
public would
go a long way
to benefit
everyone.
Is a name like "Imperfect Driver Assistance" all that bad. People actually prefer when reality exceeds expectations and are really disappointed when reversed. Try it Elon. You may be pleasantly surprised. Plus you can afford to make a mistake here. Alain
R. Furchgott, Dec. 23, "... The answer is that there is no federal regulation to stop Tesla — or the many other autonomous vehicle companies — from using public streets as a laboratory. As long as a driver is ready to take over, the only thing that prevents a company from putting an experimental autonomous vehicle on a public road is the threat of a lawsuit or bad publicity...." Read more Hmmmm... Another view of the LA Times Opinion that doesn't realize the enormous difference between Self-driving (human necessarily in the loop all the time) and Driverless (human necessarily NOT in the loop all of the time). Also, one should never test Driverless on public streets without close human oversight. Alain
J.
Jeyachandran,
Dec. 20, "At
Waymo, we're
developing one
core
autonomous
driving
platform—the
Waymo
Driver—consisting
of hardware
and software,
which builds
the
foundations of
a Driver that
can scale
across
multiple
geographies,
vehicle types,
and use cases.
Because we
engineer an
autonomous
driver that
can navigate
these
different
modalities
side by side,
system
requirements
and skills
learned from
one vehicle
platform
benefit the
other, and
vice versa. As
more of the
first fully
redundant, L4
Freightliner
Cascadia
trucks
operated by
the Waymo
Driver begin
hitting the
road, we
wanted to
share how
we've designed
and engineered
our
fifth-generation
hardware
specifically
for the rugged
life of Class
8
trucking...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Very nice information about the
technology,
but
essentially
nothing about
the "...benefits...to
trucking."
Trucking is a business where Return-on-Investment (RoI) Talks while Bling Walks. Exactly how is this "5th generation" going to improve Returns and what's it going to Cost? Since no hint is provided, this post can't be targeted to the customer, the Class 8 trucking companies who would employ this technology.
It must instead be targeted to the investment community looking to flip what they've funded. Alain
P, Murphy,
Dec. 6, "The
New Jersey
Department of
Transportation
(“NJDOT”), an
instrumentality of the State of New Jersey, has issued a Request for
Expression of
Interest
(“RFEI”) to
identify
experienced
firms capable
of introducing
a safe,
equitable,
affordable,
sustainable,
and efficient
on-demand
automated
vehicle
mobility
systems in and
beyond
Trenton, NJ.
NJDOT is
soliciting
written
Expression of
interest from
qualified and
experienced
vendors to
gain valuable
insight from
the private
industry
regarding the
goals set
forth in the
Trenton MOVES
(Mobility
&
Opportunity:
Vehicles
Equity System)
potential
project and
assess its
viability.
If and when
NJDOT elects
to proceed
with a
potential
project, NJDOT
may issue
formal
Request(s) for
Qualifications
or Proposals.
The RFEI is
available to
be downloaded
at https://www.nj.gov/transportation/business/procurement/ems/current.shtm...
1. Potential
Project
Summary
The State of
New Jersey is
exploring a
transportation
equity and
sustainable
energy
opportunity
within the
capital city
of Trenton.
Trenton MOVES
(Mobility
&
Opportunity:
Vehicles
Equity System)
will be led by
the Governor’s
Office, NJ
Department of
Transportation, the City of Trenton, and one or more institutions of
higher
education.
Trenton MOVES
is exploring
the
feasibility of
deploying ~100
AVs to serve
as lowcapacity
(4-8
passenger),
high-quality
(on-demand,
kiosk-to-kiosk)
shuttles to
serve the
90,000
residents who
live in the
City of
Trenton’s 8
square miles.
The effort
will be phased
in over two
(2) years and
will serve the
population of
New Jersey’s
capital city,
a population
where 70% of
households
have one or
fewer cars. A
proof-of-concept Operational Design
Domain (“ODD”)
is described
in Section
3.1. ... "Read
more Hmmmm...
How fantastic
is this!
Plus, Governor
Phil Murphy's
Press Release
announcing
Trenton MOVES.
All substance!! I also
presented
relevant testimony
to NJ's
Assembly
Transportation
Committee
Thursday
morning. An
ALK trifecta
this week😁.
The "welcoming
environment"
now exists in
New Jersey.
We are no
longer tied
for last with
Mississippi as
was reported
at last week's
Florida AV
Conference.
We're looking
like "first in
the world"
focused on
substantive
deployment to
real
customers.
We've built
the "Field
of Dreams"
and awaiting
the technology
"to come". We
only need
one! Or we'll
assemble
volunteers
(and
not hostages
as Mike Tomlin
would put it)
and build a
winning team
ourselves.😎
Alain
Date Change: Thursday evening, May 5,
through
Saturday May
7, 2022. Live
in Trenton,
New Jersey.
"Everything" was going well wrt the 5th Summit Nov 18->20; however...
Time is very short, we must focus on the election and the realities of where we remain with Covid really put cold water on some aspects of our vision for November.
Consequently. I've become convinced that it is very much better, that we take our time and reschedule for the first week on May 2022 rather than rush for what isn't as good as could be.
By May we will have received responses to our upcoming https://www.cartsmobility.com/ for "Equitable ... Mobility in Trenton". We will thus have a better idea on "Who", from the "What & How" communities, "Want & Can" Deploy "Equitable ... Mobility" starting in Trenton with real expectations of scaling throughout New Jersey.
In May the 5th Summit can better achieve its fundamental purpose by allowing all of us in New Jersey to better learn from others around the world the "Whats & Hows" and have the possible "Whos" get a better appreciation of the "Equitable ... Mobility" desires of Trentonians and other New Jersians.
Rescheduling the Summit to be between the RfI and the RfP steps of our Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) Deployment Process, will better enable our Community Engagement initiative to shape our ultimate deployment. We'll thus deliver even better mobility equitably and best improve quality-of-life in Trenton and throughout New Jersey.
Please pencil into your calendar the new dates of May 5 (Thursday evening) though May 7 (Trenton Mobility Festival Saturday). 😎 Please let me know if these dates work for you.
Sorry about the delay, but many will be relieved by this change. Plus, early May is really nice in NJ.😁
Alain
This
5th
Summit is
inspired by
the many
levels of
public-sector,
community and
neighborhood
welcoming and
support that
now exists in
New Jersey for
the deployment of
equitable,
affordable,
high-quality
mobility. This
is now made
possible by
automated
driving
technology
that is
especially
targeted to
serve
those who, for
whatever
reason, don't
have access to
their own
personal
car.
The
Princeton SDC
Summits were
initiated in
2017 to
provide a
venue for the
open
discussion of
how
technology, in
particular
automation,
can be shaped
to improve
mobility of
people and
goods between
and within
cities. Early
on, we
realized that
this form of
mobility could
easily provide
yet another
alternative to
those who are
fortunate
enough to
enjoy one or
many high
quality
mobility
options.
But, more importantly, it became obvious that substantial improvement in quality-of-life and equitable mobility can readily be made available to the un-served and under-served. Those who cannot drive themselves, cannot afford the transport alternatives that exist for them, or who live in areas where, for either economic or other reasons, neither public nor private desirable forms of transport are offered. Furthermore, such initial Operational Design Domains (OODs) can be readily expanded and replicated to allow the vast investments continuing to be made in this technology to actually yield their envisioned societal and financial benefits.
The
recently
completed 4th
Summit set the
groundwork for
these initial
deployments to
benefit under-served communities. Communities with many households
having access
to one or
fewer cars and
with
challenged
transit
alternatives.
We concluded
the 4th Summit
by envisioning a deployment throughout Trenton, NJ, a
community
where 70% of
the households
have access to
one or fewer
cars.
We
believe that
Trenton is a
perfect ODD to
begin to
deliver Equitable,
Affordable,
High-quality
Mobility,
in addition to
being
environmentally
responsible,
safe and
comfortable.
The
opportunity to
expand
throughout
Mercer County
and replicate
this
deployment
scenario
throughout the
State exists.
This
deployment
will serves
as a blueprint
for the future
for many other
"Trentons" of
this world.
The
groundwork set
by the 4th
Summit and the
NJ Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force has
enabled us to
create a "most
welcoming
environment"
in New Jersey
for creating a
Public-Private
Partnership to
deliver this
enhanced
mobility to
the residents
of Trenton and
all New
Jersians. The 5th Summit will
focus directly
on deployment in Trenton and will take place in Trenton. We also
envision its
expansion
throughout
Mercer County
and its
replication in
and around New
Jersey's other
major
cities.
H. Poser'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines" . See slides, See video Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain
These
editions are
sponsored by
the SmartETFs
Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information
head to www.motoetf.com
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="137" height="17" border="0"> https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provides technical support
A. Hawkins,
Dec. 14,
"Pony.ai, an
autonomous
vehicle
startup based
in Silicon
Valley and
Guangzhou,
China, is
temporarily
unable to test
driverless
vehicles in
California
after a
vehicle crash
led the
state’s
Department of
Motor Vehicles
to suspend the
company’s
testing
permit.
Pony.ai was
one of the few
companies
approved to
test fully
autonomous
vehicles
without safety
drivers behind
the steering
wheel on
public roads
in
California....
The permit
was suspended
after the
company reported
a crash to the
DMV.... "
Read
more Hmmmm...
Crash... not
good!
Crash
report
"Driver's
Name"is blank
Hummmm ...
???
Crash
report
makes no
mention of
occupants or
attendants. Hummmm ... Rest assured that
"NJCrash
reports of
AVs" will
include names
of occupants,
drivers and/or
attendants.
(One of the
benefits of
being "tied
for last with
Mississippi"
for so long).
Also, rest assured, that NJ will NOT permit the testing
of AVs
without an
alert
driver/attendant
capable of
"disengaging"
the AV in an
attempt to
avert or
mitigate a
crash.
Finally.. what was Pony.ai thinking???? The
objective/purpose
of testing
is to
encounter
situations
where the car
will crash if
the
driver/attendant
fails to
"disengage".
Encountering
such
situations
might allow
the AV system
to be
improved/fixed/corrected
so when that
situation is
encountered in
the future,
the AV system
will not crash
and not need
anyone to
disengage it.
Then you can
get rid of the
driver/attendant.
Testing is not over until the probability that a
situation
requiring
disengagement
by a
driver/attendant
is
sufficiently
rare such that
the liability
associated
with such rare
occurrences is
substantially
smaller that
the the value
captures by
the increased
mobility
afforded by
not having to
pay the cost
of an
attendant/driver...
period!!!!!
Certainly not an advanced concept. Every parent &
child knows
that you
continue to
run behind the
bike and you
don't take off
the training
wheels until
the child is
good enough at
riding the
bike such that
the chances of
falling and
scraping a
knee or worse
is so remote
that you let
them enjoy the
fruits derived
from the newly
acquired
mobility. No
different for
driverless
vehicles or
whatever you
wish to call
them.
So what was Pony.ai thinking, if indeed, they were testing without and attendant or driver???? What value were they acquiring...
Also,
what was CA
DMV thinking
when they
created a
license to test
without a
driver or
attendant?
Some of us
believe that
the #1 value
of being able
to operate a
vehicle
without a
driver/attendant
is the
substantial
percentage
reduction in
the cost to
deliver
high-quality
mobility to
everyone,
especially
those who, for whatever reason, can't
afford to
provide
mobility for
themselves
(can't...
drive a car,
ride a bike,
ride a
scooter, walk).
That cost
reduction
provides
society with
the
opportunity to
deliver
thigh-quality
affordable,
and thus
equitable,
mobility to
everyone. But
that is
deployment/operations,
NOT testing.
Press
release, Dec.
6, " Governor
Phil Murphy
and New Jersey
Department of
Transportation
(NJDOT)
Commissioner
Diane
Gutierrez-Scaccetti
today
announced an
Request for
Expressions of
Interest
(RFEI) for the
Trenton
Mobility &
Opportunity:
Vehicles
Equity System
(MOVES)
Project.
Trenton MOVES
will act to
provide safe,
equitable,
affordable,
and
sustainable
high-quality
mobility
through the
deployment of
100 Autonomous
Vehicles (AVs)
throughout the
state capital.
This on-demand
automated
transit system
will serve
90,000
residents of
Trenton.
“Since
taking office,
we have worked
relentlessly
towards making
New Jersey the
innovation
center of
America,” said
Governor
Murphy. “There
is perhaps no
initiative
that embodies
this goal more
than the
Trenton MOVES
project, which
will attract
tech talent
from around
the country
and the world
with the
mission of
creating an
autonomous
vehicle-based
transit system
in our Capitol
that will
provide a new,
affordable
transportation
solution for
underserved
areas of
Trenton. This
is an exciting
project with
immense
potential, and
I look forward
to the day
that the first
vehicle hits
the road.”
“Mobility
is about
equity and
access to
opportunity,”
said New
Jersey
Department of
Transportation
Commissioner
Diane
Gutierrez-Scaccetti.
“Trenton MOVES
represents an
opportunity to
utilize
innovation to
sustainably
improve the
quality of
life of the
mobility-constrained
in many of our
cities. By
starting in
Trenton, we
will have the
opportunity to
work with a
close and
effective
partner;
ultimately our
vision is that
this effort
will ideally
scale
throughout the
state and the
region”.
“We’re grateful to Governor Murphy and the N.J. Department of Transportation under Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti for investing in an innovative mobility solution that will considerably improve the lives of the average Trentonian,” said Trenton Mayor W. Reed Gusciora. “Trenton MOVES means our residents can get to work on time without transfers or connections. It means state workers can explore restaurants and businesses throughout the entire city. It means more safe and equitable transportation options for everyone ranging from students involved in school activities to seniors going to their doctor appointments.”
The Trenton
MOVES
(Mobility
&
Opportunity:
Vehicles
Equity System)
project is
being
developed by
the Governor’s
Office, NJDOT,
the City of
Trenton, and
Princeton
University.
This will
be the first
large-scale
urban transit
system in
America to be
based entirely
on
self-driving
shuttles. Each
vehicle will
carry four to
eight
passengers at
a time. The
AVs will be
low cost to
users in
underserved
neighborhoods.
During the
initial launch
there will be
in-vehicle
attendants to
demonstrate
the safety and
operational
integrity of
the service.
Full
deployment
will occur
after a
detailed
planning and
testing phase.
This new
system will
allow
Trenton’s
households
(70% of which
have limited
access to a
single
automobile or
no access at
all) as well
as traditional
road users to
get acclimated
to the
presence of
AVs on the
streets of the
state
capital.
NJDOT
offers this
Request for
Expressions of
Interest
(RFEI) to help
gather
information
from firms in
the design,
build-out and
operation of a
safe and
equitable
automated
vehicle
transportation
system for
Trenton. The
deadline for
the RFEI
response is
February 11,
2022.
Following the
solicitation
of the RFEI,
NJDOT may
issue formal
requests for
Qualifications
or Proposals.
However,
responses to
the RFEI will
not
necessarily
impact or be
connected to
any call for
Proposals or
Qualifications.
The deadline
for the RFEI
response is
February 11,
2022.
Copy of Request for Expression of Interest" Read more This is all about deployment that will begin to enable New Jersey and the nation to finally begin to capture societal benefits from the vast investments that have been made in this techology since the DARPA Challenges. I'm so humbled to be a part of this most substantive intitiative. Alain
M. Sena, Dec. 1, "Germany’s automotive industry is important for the country’s economy, the welfare of a large number of its citizens and for the prestige of the nation. It is also very important for Europe as a whole. VW, DAIMLER and BMW had total 2020 revenue of €476 billion and hold respectively positions 2, 3 and 8 amongst the largest companies in the EU...
Hydroelectric
power has not
disappeared,
but it isn’t
directly
driving
machines; it’s
driving
turbines to
generate
electricity.
If you are
among those
who classify
hydroelectric
power as a
renewable
energy source
(a club in
which I am not
a member),
then it is
interesting to
note that
hydropower
accounts for
70% of global
electricity
production
from renewable
sources. But
it definitely
is not top of
the list of
investments
recommended
for high
returns. Solar
and wind are
the darlings
of investors.
But imagine
what would
have happened
if electricity
had not been
invented and
we got stuck
on steam.
Hydropower
would have
disappeared
completely.
Now imagine if
the internal
combustion
engine didn’t
make it out of
the lab and
electric- and
steam-driven
engines
continued to
compete for
investments.
What happens
to TESLA’s
stock, which
is now trading
at just over a
$1,000/share
(it was up to
$1,239 on the
4th of
November!) if
the U.S.
decides that
it will stop
financing its
rival’s
military
buildup by
banning the
sale of all
battery
electric cars
using
lithium-ion
batteries or
any other
material on
which its
rival holds a
monopoly. Or,
what happens
if the country
that currently
has the
monopoly
decides not to
sell batteries
or allow the
sale of any of
the raw
materials that
are used to
make
batteries?
Steam trains got the chance to pull coal cars when the price of oats that fed the horses became prohibitively high due to the wars in which Britain was engaged. Anybody who owned stock in a steam engine company did very well at that point. But if that company tried to buck the ICE trend and continue to build steam trucks, like SENTINEL and FODEN, the paper was eventually worthless..." Read more Hmmmm... Once again,excellent fundamentals here. Read, learn and enjoy! Also check out our SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 244, Zoom-Cast Episode 244 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher, Alain
Press release, Nov. 8, "Gatik and Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced today that Gatik is operating daily without a safety driver behind the wheel on its delivery route for Walmart in Bentonville, Arkansas, moving customer orders between a Walmart dark store and a Neighborhood Market in its fleet of multi-temperature autonomous box trucks.
Gatik’s
deployment
with Walmart
in the state
represents the
first time
that an
autonomous
trucking
company has
removed the
safety driver
from a
commercial
delivery route
on the middle
mile anywhere
in the world.
Gatik’s fully driverless operations, which began in August 2021, involve consistent, repeated delivery runs multiple times per day, seven days per week on public roads and unlock the full advantages of autonomous delivery for Walmart’s customers: increased speed and responsiveness when fulfilling e-commerce orders, increased asset utilization and enhanced safety for all road users..."...
This milestone signifies a revolutionary breakthrough for the autonomous trucking industry,” said Gautam Narang, CEO and co-founder, Gatik. “Our deployment in Bentonville is not a one-time demonstration. These are frequent, revenue-generating, daily runs that our trucks are completing safely in a range of conditions on public roads, demonstrating the commercial and technical advantages of fully driverless operations on the middle mile. We’re thrilled to enable Walmart’s customers to reap the benefits.”
In December 2020, Gatik and Walmart received the Arkansas State Highway Commission’s first ever approval to remove the safety driver from Gatik’s autonomous trucks, following the completion of 18 months’ successful operations. As part of its roadmap to operating fully driverless, Gatik undertook a comprehensive stakeholder engagement strategy, involving state and local leadership and emergency services, and will continue to hold ongoing informational workshops concerning its ground-breaking autonomous operations.
In December 2020, Gatik and Walmart received the Arkansas State Highway Commission’s first ever approval to remove the safety driver from Gatik’s autonomous trucks, following the completion of 18 months’ successful operations. As part of its roadmap to operating fully driverless, Gatik undertook a comprehensive stakeholder engagement strategy, involving state and local leadership and emergency services, and will continue to hold ongoing informational workshops concerning its ground-breaking autonomous operations..." Read more Hmmmm... If you are trying to do it for real , this is the way to do it. I appreciate the showing showing some humility as opposed to making Houdini-style Snake & Mirrors announcements focused on getting more from the "SoftBanks" of this world. Congratulations! This looks like a real "dida milestone"! Update 12/4... It is driverless but there is an attendant on-board for now. Progress but not PrimeTime. 🙁 Alain
J. Kanet,
Nov 9,
"Advanced
Driver
Assistance
Systems (ADAS)
have improved
automobile
safety by
minimizing the
factor most
frequently
associated
with car
accidents –
human error.
The
conventional
wisdom has
been that ADAS
technologies
should
mitigate the
number of
insurance
claims, but
the impact of
ADAS on claim
severity has
been less
clear. ADAS
features
include
expensive and
complex
technical
components and
are often
installed on
exposed areas
of vehicles,
making them
susceptible to
damage from a
collision.
This white
paper examines
the
multivariate
effect of ADAS
features on
claim
severity. It
is a follow up
to our earlier
report, ADAS
Analysis
Creates Path
for Auto
Insurance
Rating,
which analyzed
the impact of
ADAS systems
on claim
frequency. For
both analyses,
LexisNexis
Risk Solutions
considered the
same sample of
11 million
vehicles from
model years
2014-2019, and
reviewed
industry-wide
claims loss
data for
bodily injury,
property
damage and
collision
coverages.
For this
follow-up
report, we
looked at the
interactions
between a core
list of ADAS
features and
quantified the
claim severity
differential
across all 648
possible
combinations
of those
features. ...
" Read
more Hmmmm...
Excellent. Finally there is
data that
supports that
ADAS is indeed
fundamentally
good for the
insurance
industry in
that it allows
them to make
more money.
Not to be
crass, but
"crash
mitigation"
(airbag, energy
absorbing car
design,
...) has been
great for
safety...
saving lives,
reducing
occupant
severity , ...
but,
the
liabilities
associated
with crash
mitigation
have
increased. Claim
Severity
for both Physical
Damage and
Bodily Injury
have gone
up. Cars are
more expensive
to repair and it
costs more if
you live than
if you die.
🙁,.
For years I've been arguing that ADAS focused
squarely on
Crash
Prevention {automated
collision avoidance
(that actually
works well...
does kick
automatically
to avoid
collision 😎),
not just
"warning"
(that is
annoying.
Because since it is just a warning
there is no
pressure to
make it work
well... just
cover your
butt! So, no
pressure to
make it work
well. Consequently,
"everyone"
turns it off
to avoid being
annoyed... 🙁}
is
Automation's
best
opportunity to
deliver real
safety...
Save lives,
..., and make
$$$ for the
Insurance
industry!
For years, I've postulated that as soon as {"the
expected
liability
savings for
ADAS (the
difference in
the expected
liability for
me
with&without...)"
< (less
than)
"incremental
cost of ADAS
on the price
of a car that
I am about to
buy
(difference
with&without)"},
my insurance
agent (the Gecko, Flo,
NJM,
or ???) should
insist on
picking up the
tab on the
price
difference as
long as I
continue to
pay my
existing
premiums!
Nothing but a
win-win! I
win because
the
probability
that I die...
is lower and
the Gecko,
Flo,
NJM,
or ??? smile
all the way to
the bank😎.
These are real
market
forces.
This
is the first
report that
I've seen that
begins to
quaintly the
reduction in
"expected
liability" of
ADAS based on
real
experiential
data. To me,
this is major!
Be sure to see the white paper True Impact of ADAS Features on Insurance Claim Severity Revealed and listen/watch the SDC Pod/ZoomCast 242. Alain
H. Posner,
Nov 10,
"UK-based
rolling stock
& battery
technology
manufacturer
Vivarail noted
a number of
achievements
during the
first week of
the COP26 UN
Climate Change
Conference in
Glasgow. The
opening
Saturday of
the conference
on Saturday
October 30 saw
a historic run
across the
Firth of
Forth,. as the
first electric
train across
the iconic
bridge.
Vivarail was
asked to
operate its
battery train
for
demonstration
runs through
the conference
as part of the
official
Network Rail
Green
Trains@COP26
event. Each
day the train
has taken
delegates and
invited guests
from around
the world to
showcase the
best of new
emission-free
technology. In
the first week
the train
carried
hundreds of
people from
government,
industry,
academia,
media and
advocacy
groups. ... "
Read
more Hmmmm...
But you know that the Pop-Up Metro train was the
First Across
the Atlantic.
Video,
Slides
and ZoomCast
re: Pop-Up
Metro.
And there is
always Alain
climbing on #6988.😎
.
Absolutely
Fantastic
Henry. Alain
R. Mitchel, Oct 7, "Compared with so-called advanced driver assistance systems such as Autopilot, a forward collision avoidance system is relatively crude. It is designed to answer one question — is a frontal impact imminent? — and respond to danger by sounding a warning and, if necessary, triggering a subsystem called automatic emergency braking. Unlike Autopilot, which must be selected manually and is available only under some driving conditions, automatic emergency braking runs by default unless manually turned off....
Tesla calls its vehicles “the safest cars in the world,” citing their combination of structural engineering and advanced technology. But when it comes to the forward collision avoidance system, Tesla owners have been reporting problems at a substantially elevated rate compared with similarly equipped cars....
“Teslas are running into stationary objects,” said Alain Kornhauser, who heads the driverless car engineering program at Princeton University. “They shouldn’t be.” If the company’s cars can’t avoid crash scenes marked by flares or traffic cones, he said, “how can you trust anything else they do with Autopilot?”...
One
possibility,
according to
Missy
Cummings, a
former Navy
fighter pilot
who studies
human-machine
interaction at
Duke
University, is
that Autopilot
is designed to
preempt or
suppress
emergency
braking to
minimize
what’s known
as phantom
braking.
“I haven’t
seen the code
to say how
Tesla works,
but I suspect
the AEB is
turned off in
some
situations,”
she said. “If
it were left
on it may
detect what
are called
phantom
objects and
would be
slamming on
the
brakes.”... "
Read
more Hmmmm...
This story is
great and is
not what
anyone else
has written.
Thank you,
Russ, for
doing all of
the research
and hard work
that you put
into this
article.
I agree with Missy, (I haven't
seen the code
either), but,
rest assured,
a perception
algorithm is
part of each
of Tesla's
automated
systems that
"drive" their
cars some of
the time, be
it its forward collision avoidance
system (FCAS),
autoPilot or
FSD. They may
each have its
own or the
best one is
used in all
three, but
each has an
FCAS; else,
Teslas would
never know to
invoke any of
the driving
sub-tasks,
like slow down
or speed up or
stay in the
lane, or don't
hit me, or
... If a
Tesla
perception
system detects
an objects
that doesn't
exist and
locates it as
being in the
lane ahead,
i.e. a
"stationary
phantom object
in the lane
ahead", then
that
perception
system will
signal to the
automated
driving
system... to
slow down and
don't hit it.
If Tesla's
human driver
is paying
attention to
what is going
on and, of
course,
doesn't see
the phantom
object (it is
phantom = not
real), then
the alert
driver is
justified in
losing trust
that FCAS,
autoPilot or
FSD is
reliable and
won't kill.
The erosion of
that trust
leads to
complaints,
demands for
refunds and
substantial
problems for
Tesla.
Tesla
has simply
gotten ahead
of itself in
trying to get
to Driverless
too quickly,
rather than
making sure
that Automated
Emergency
Braking (AEB)
works better
than "good
enough". My
guess is,
Tesla
perception
algorithm
simply ignores
stationary
objects
detected in
the lane
ahead and
those detected
to be to the
side of the
lane ahead.
Ignoring detected stationary objects is perfectly appropriate when following a car ahead. The car ahead didn't crash into that detected stationary object ahead, so the coast is clear! I'll be able to pass under/to the side/over it too! If the car ahead crashes into that object, Its sudden deceleration is readily perceived by the trailing Tesla's AEB. As long as the Tesla has not been tailgating (which a good AEB should disallow), the Tesla should be able to stop in time to avoid crashing into the new pileup ahead. All easy, and likely not the scenario in any of the NHTSA crash investigations.
Not
so easy if the
Tesla is the
lead vehicle,
especially if
the vehicle
that the Tesla
was following
suddenly
changes lanes
and is no
longer
explicitly
confirming
that the
Tesla's road
ahead is
traversable,
It is now the
Tesla's job to
determine if
it can pass
under a
stationary
object in the
lane ahead.
That is simply
not easy
to do
reliably. Not
easy to
determine the
clearance
under an
overpass/sign/traffic
light/tree
canopy while
approaching
said
overpass/...
at any
significant
speed. If the
object is
classified as
an overpass/sign/traffic
light/tree
canopy,
the chance are
really good
that "passing
under" is a
breeze.
However, if
classification
of the object
is uncertain,
then all bets
are off.
I strongly suspect that Tesla's perception algorithm disregards all stationary objects ahead when leading as well as when following. NHTSA has to tell Tesla to not do that any more!!! Tesla must go back, essentially to the beginning, and figure out how to reliably determine if it can pass under, beside or over stationary objects detected in the road ahead. Alain
A.
Hawkins, Sep
30, "Waymo and
Cruise, two of
the leading
autonomous
vehicle
companies in
the US,
received
permits from
the California
Department of
Motor Vehicles
to offer rides
to passengers
in their
robotaxis.
But while
Cruise was
approved to
give rides in
its fully
driverless
vehicles
without safety
drivers, Waymo
only is
allowed to
deploy its
autonomous
vehicles with
a human
monitor behind
the wheel. In
order to give
rides to
paying
passengers in
its fully
driverless
vehicles, as
it does in
Arizona, the
Google spinoff
would need to
apply for an additional
permit from
the California
Public
Utilities
Commission.
... "
Read more Hmmmm...
Congratulations Kyle, Robert and everyone else!!!! This is a non-trivial
accomplishment!
Given all of the additional knocks
on your door
that will
naturally come
your way, we
hope that
you'll keep us
in mind. We
here in NJ
have assembled
an enormously
welcoming and
realistic
environment
for Deployment
to a customer
base that will
fundamentally
benefit and
cherish the
Equitable,
Affordable,
High-Quality,
Safe Mobility
that is
delivered by
your
Driverless
Technology.
Hopefully
you'll divert
a little
bandwidth to
our upcoming "5th Annual
SDC Summit",
New Jersey's
next step in
our process to
help you and
possibly
others get to
where you've
gotten in
California.
We are new
kids on the
block, but
we've really
gotten our act
together to
work with you
and others to
catch up
quickly and
really improve
the
quality-of-life
for many here
in New
Jersey, and
the rest of
the NorthEast.
Again... Congratulations! So pleased and so well deserved! Alain
229 Sherrerd Hall Princeton University Princeton, NJ [log in to unmask] 609-980-1427 (c) |
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="68" height="71" border="0"> |