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Recent Highlights of SDC eLetter
Sunday, September 1, 2024
The Dispatcher_September 2024
M. Sena, August 28, “Amidst wars, riots, assassination attempts, the Olympic Games, changes of presidential plans, and a two-day collapse of the world’s stock markets, the automobile industry putters along, trying to find a balance between ICEs and BEVs. When the summer started, the U.S. and EU were slapping tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, and the Chinese government was threatening to respond in turn. It has been quiet on both the western and eastern automotive fronts since then, but when summer turns to autumn, the topic of tariffs will rise again. The lead article in this September issue is intended to put a long range perspective on the issues and give one man’s view of what is at stake for the players.”. Read more Hmmmm… As usual, most interesting and informative reading. The China challenge, like the driverless challenge and challenges in general, is not easy. Alain
Monday, August 26, 2024
Time to Pivot
Alain Kornhauser, August 25, “Following our very successful 6th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit at the end of May, Elizabeth and I have spent the summer preparing to pivot from commenting and Hmmm…ing about what others are doing, or not doing, with SmartDrivingCars to preparing ourselves to actually do what Michael Sena and I described in our book: “putting driverless vehicles to use for those who really need a ride”.
We are putting together a team to take the first step in actually beginning to capture some societal value out of the $300 Billion that’s been invested in this technology since the DARPA Challenges 20 years ago. Just to have an RoI of 1.0 will require the giving of 30 Billion rides if the societal value of each ride averages @ $10/ride. If only $1/ride, it will take 300 Billion rides for this technology to break even.
This certainly has been a moonshot investment in that it has been really hard, but so far, unless a lot is wiped clean, those that have been in it carry a heavy burden.
But what is sunk is sunk, so we are jumping in. It looks like we’re going to call it HandyRides, Inc. and focus on taking the first step to implementing our book. We have version 1 of our elevator pitch (feedback welcomed) and a plan that we’ve begun to implement with some very good members of what we are calling “our coalition of the willing”. Read more Hmmmm… Wish us luck. We can use all the help that we can get, so if you wish to help, let us know via return eMail to mailto:alaink@princeton.edu?subject=I want to help …. Also hope to see you at the Florida AV Conference in Tampa in two weeks. Alain
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
GM’s Cruise abandons Origin robotaxi, takes $583 million charge
K. Korosec, July 23, “GM’s self-driving car subsidiary Cruise is scrapping plans to build the Origin — a purpose-built robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals — and will instead use the next-generation Chevrolet Bolt in its operations.
GM Chair and CEO Mary Barra told shareholders Tuesday the decision will “simplify their path to scale” and addresses the regulatory uncertainty faced with the Origin robotaxi because of its unique design. The per-unit costs will also be much lower, which will help Cruise optimize its resources, Barra said in the shareholder letter released alongside the company’s second-quarter earnings.
GM reported a financial charge of $583 million in the second quarter that is tied to the non-cash write-off of Origin assets and other restructuring costs. The Cruise subsidiary had an operating loss of $1.14 billion in the second quarter that included a $605 million impairment charge …” Read more Hmmmm… RIP. Alain
Former Cruise CEO responds to GM canceling Origin self-driving vehicle
Z. Visconti, July 23, “A founder and former CEO of Cruise, the General Motors (GM) self-driving unit, has responded to the announcement that the company will be suspending plans for its Origin driverless vehicle to focus on a next-generation vehicle instead.
GM officially announced plans to suspend the Cruise Origin self-driving vehicle in its Q2 2024 letter to shareholders on Tuesday, after initially halting production of the driverless vehicle last year.
Former CEO and Cruise co-founder Kyle Vogt responded to the news on X on Tuesday, saying he was “disappointed to see GM kill the Origin.”…” Read more Hmmmm… What a Cry’n Shame. Elizabeth & I are setting out to fill the void by “giving rides to those who really need a ride”. If you are interested in joining our “Coalition of the Willing”, then send your resume. Alain
The Real Case for Driverless Mobility
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Staff, , July7, “The literal finish line at the Henley Royal Regatta can seem pretty far away at times. The figurative one can seem further.
If you’re one of the fortunate crews to get to the latter, then there are few feelings in rowing that can match it. Ask the members of the Princeton first varsity 8. After a grueling week of racing, Princeton is officially a 2024 Henley champion.…”. See video Hmmmm… So proud that 2 on my “Lion SmartDrivingCar” interns were members of that winning boat. Patrick Shaw’26 was n seat 2 and is a current summer intern and Nick Taylor’24 interned last summer. Nick did much of the development of the cost model for our MOVES design and Analysis System and Patrick has been working with Timothy Mwangi to improve the database management aspects and parallelization of various aspects of the system simulation. So proud. 😊 Alain
GreenVilleMOVES: Generating an initial MOVES configuration: GreenVilleDemo20
Alain Kornhauser, July 8, “Video describing the use of the MOVES-style Design, Analysis & Simulation System …” Watch video Hmmmm… Nice. Alain
Monday, July 1, 2024
Welcome to the Summer 2024
Alain Kornhauser, July 1, “…”. Hmmmm… Welcome to the summer of 2024.
45 years ago to the day, my first wife Katherine and I launched our first “start-up” focused on fixing the hopelessly bankrupt Northeast railroads. Mark Hornung was the first employee and remained dedicated throughout his career as did others including Mike Bodden, Danni Titus, Dan Popkin and Michael Kornhauser, who for the past 11.5 years has grown and nurtured this critical pillar within its new parent. I couldn’t be prouder!
Today, Elizabeth and I return to the Summer of ’79 and announce the launch of our start-up focused on creating the Proof-of-Market for “The Real Case for Driverless Mobility: Giving Rides to Those Who Really Need a Ride”. While we still don’t have a name for this entity and haven’t completed the legal arrangements, we do have a number of dedicated individuals willing to put in the sweat to identify in detail who really needs a ride from where to where, when and subsequently manage fleets of vehicles that serve their needs affordably.
Since at the beginning our capacity is miniscule, our efforts will be focused exclusively on serving those whose needs are greatest and can be served most safely. As our capacity, technology and experience grows, we will scale to serve more of the many whose lives can be improved substantially from the availability of affordable high-quality mobility that serves their needs safely from where they are, to where they want to go, when they want to go there.
For now, we are finishing the paperwork and are calling our entity HandyRides, Inc. 😊 Alain
Saturday, June 15, 2024
Farzad, June 13, “…”. Watch Video Hmmmm… Very interesting, especially now with a modified “AirB&B” extension. 😊 Alain
Monday, May 27, 2024
Dispatch Central: The 6th Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit
Michael Sena, June 1, AFTER THE 4TH PRINCETON SMARTDRIVINGCARS SUMMIT, which was held virtually due to COVID, Alain Kornhauser and I agreed co-author a book that would explain why driverless cars have an important place in the future of transportation. That was three years ago, and the book was published in January of this year. The chapters of the book provided the organizing structure for much of the 6TH SUMMIT held in the PRINCETON UNIVERSITY School of International Affairs on 30-31 May. The agenda for the two days is shown below.
There were three major differences between this Summit and the previous five. First, most of the participants were invited and were expected to deliver a keynote, give a presentation on one of the three principal topics and three principal themes, and/or participate in a panel. The topics were People Who Drive Themselves; People Who Need a Ride; and Non-People (e.g., freight) that Need a Ride. The themes were: Proof of Concept; Proof of Market; and Proof of Policy.
The second difference was that there were no separate workshops or break-out sessions. All the participants heard everything that everyone else heard. Active engagement and discussion was encouraged.
Thirdly, and most importantly, the 6TH SUMMIT had single focus, which was to discuss the immediate opportunities for implementing our recommended approach to delivering rides to the unserved and underserved members of communities, those who cannot afford to own or operate a car, those who are not able to afford taxis or who do not have friends or families who can provide rides, or who are not able to drive themselves. In past summits, participants presented their views on the current status of advanced driver systems and driverless technologies, and there was no carry-over from summit to summit. It felt like there was no progress being made on the goal of delivering affordable mobility to those who who need it. That was the principal reason that Alain and I decided to author our book, to make a compelling case for driverless mobility.
“The novelty of driverless vehicles is that there is no driver, and the only thing that should mean to the rider is that the cost of the trip is significantly lower. The vehicle itself should not be a novelty.”
Chapter 6: The Business Proposition of Affordable Mobility
Meeting the unmet need for mobility
In the U.S., 89% of adults over 25, totaling 205 million people, have driver’s licenses, but that does not mean they all drive. 79% of those over 75 who have drivers’ licenses, representing 7% of the total population, drive once per year. 71% of 16-19- year-olds, which is 9% of the population, drive once per year. Either they do not own their own car, or the family car is used by another family member. Four percent of licensed drivers lose their license each year. That is 8 million drivers. Twenty-five percent of all U.S. adults over 25, which is 57 million people, have a disability that affects their ability to drive. And the big number of unserved or underserved are the 52% of households that have incomes lower than $75,000 and cannot afford a car costing over over $29,000.
The diagram below shows the approximate percent of daily trips that are made by people with their own car, by people taking public transport and walking, and by taxi or equivalent. The vast majority of trips are made by car, and many of them have no passengers.
 The real case for driverless mobility is meeting the unmet needs of people who cannot afford to own and operate their own car, cannot drive, cannot afford to be chauffeured, and cannot take public transport, either because it does not exist or does not take them to where they need to go when they need to get there. It is not a replacement for the private car, the bus, a taxi, or people’s own two feet. Perhaps, in time, sustaining improvements will make it attractive to those who are not underserved because it provides affordable and convenient rides, but we should not wait for a replacement to a private, self-driven car or a chauffeured taxi to use driverless technology within controlled operational design domains.
On the second day of the Summit, we showed a simulation of how driverless cars could be employed within a community to deliver point-to-point rides. Pick-up and drop-off points are positioned within a five-minute walk of all residences, and daily trips from each household are calculated based on census data. Simulated trips to work, school, shopping, recreation, and all other places are estimated based on the demographics of the residences within the census district. A significant amount of time and effort has been put into developing the simulator over the years by Alain and his students, and they are all credited with special mention at the end or out book.
 It’s time for MOVES to get moving
At this time next year, there should be a real MOVES23 pilot project in a real community, not just a simulation. That is the goal. If there is a 7TH SMARTDRIVINGCARS SUMMIT, it should be a celebration of the achievement of that goal, but the real purpose of having a gathering is for participants to roll up their sleeves and discuss problems that have been identified during the previous year and ways to make improvements. There will be other venues to talk about driverless freight applications, driverless vehicle standards development, safety, and insurance, and we should do all we can to support developments in all areas. However, if the mission of SmartDrivingCars—at least as I understood it—is to be fulfilled, it is with delivering rides to the large number of people who need a ride but who cannot afford one..…” Read More Hmmmm… Here we go. We’re beginning to do it. Alain
Monday, May 27, 2024
 On self driving, Waymo is playing chess while Tesla plays checkers
Timothy Lee, May 21, “.Tesla fans—and CEO Elon Musk himself—are excited about the prospects for Tesla’s Full Self Driving (FSD) software. Tesla released a major upgrade—version 12.3—of the software in March. Then last month Musk announced that Tesla would unveil a purpose-built robotaxi on August 8. Last week Elon Musk announced that a new version of FSD—12.4—is coming out in the coming days and will have a “5X to 10X improvement in miles per intervention.”
But I think fans expecting Tesla to launch a driverless taxi service in the near future are going to be disappointed.
During a late March trip to San Francisco, I had a chance to try the latest self-driving technology from both Tesla and Google’s Waymo.
During a 45-minute test drive in a Tesla Model X, I had to intervene twice to correct mistakes by the FSD software. In contrast, I rode in driverless Waymo vehicles for more than two hours and didn’t notice a single mistake.
So while Tesla’s FSD version 12.3 seems like a significant improvement over previous versions of FSD, it still lags behind Waymo’s technology.…” Read More Hmmmm… True! Very thoughtful article. But chess is way too tough for me to enjoy. That’s for my friend, Jon Crumiller. (He is really good! 😊) Maybe checkers can be good enough for me? Alain
Sunday, May 19, 2024
The Battle for the Streets of New York
D. Stewart, May 13, “On a recent morning, the intersection of East 77th Street and Lexington Avenue presented a vivid illustration of the tumult.
A taxi trying to make a left turn had to maneuver around a Verizon crew digging up the asphalt. A box truck was parked in the bus lane, and the M102 bus, with its accordionlike belly, was forced to change lanes and snake around it.
Dozens of people streamed out of the subway and into the crosswalk. A man pushing a double stroller navigated between the subway entrance and a sidewalk compost box. A woman’s shopping cart wheels got stuck in a crack in the sidewalk. CitiBikes and delivery bikes whizzed by. A cargo bike stopped in front of a FedEx truck that was unloading packages next to a bike lane.
Lively, energetic streets make city living attractive — people to watch, windows to browse, benches to sit on, trees for shade.
But lately, New York City streets are teetering between lively and unlivable. Residents clash over traffic, noise, parking, 5G towers and heaps of trash. Most years, far fewer pedestrians get killed by motorists than in generations past, but last year was the deadliest year for cyclists since 1999.…” Read More Hmmmm… Waymo wants to play on these streets in this context? Is no one in the room going to raise their hand and ask: “We want to do what?? Doesn’t anyone recall Napoleon’s invasion of Moscow ?”
Is Waymo as clueless as Apple, when nobody in any room during any meeting raised their hand and ventured: “Doesn’t Crush! embody the perfect antithesis of our brilliant 1984 Superbowl ad? What are people thinking around here???” Alain
Sunday, May 12, 2024
Information Request ID RQ24009 to Mr. Gates:
G. Magno, May 6, “This letter is to inform you that the Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened a Recall Query (RQ24009) to investigate the remedy effectiveness of Recall 23V838. …” Read More Hmmmm… A remedy was implemented, and its effectiveness is being investigated. Fair enough!
Actually, beyond fair to very good… In this case, involving extremely rare events, data are available to indicate that the defect may still persist.
Moreover, beyond very good to fantastic … In this case, current data may also be available that may enable the precise quantification of the effectiveness of the remedy in the real world and the design and dissemination of a more effective remedy.
As someone existing in the antiseptic world of an ‘academic bubble’ and carefully reading all 18 pages of the ‘Information Request,’ I’m wondering if this isn’t completely uncharted territory for NHTSA, if not all safety-responsible entities in terms of its depth and timeliness?
I suspect that, given the opportunity, lawyers use ‘discovery’ to go on very deep fishing expeditions, but this one seems different. It seems like they know for what they are fishing, that the fish exist, and that the fish may actually be anxious and willing to get caught so as to be able to jointly solve this nasty problem … Wow! and possibly derive even more societal value in the process … Wow, Wow!!
Is life really this good???
In this case it may well be…
1. Neither NHTSA nor Tesla want ‘AutoPilot’ or ‘Supervised FSD’ or ‘whatever you call it’ to be technologically unsafe. This can largely be done (and has been) in the lab, in simulation and in controlled real-world environments.
2. Nor do either want misbehaving users to misbehave implicitly or explicitly in using these products. Unfortunately, this “human-in-the-loop” aspect of these technologies today aren’t done well in the lab, in simulation or controlled real-world tests. They are so nuanced by the creative work-around gaming feedback employed objectively by explicit misbehavers and, unfortunately, by as yet unobserved and unanticipated implicit misbehaviors.
3. The utopic beauty of where we might find ourselves today is that Tesla has deployed the infrastructure that enables observation and the documentation, through real-time data capture, of the performance of these features that effectively characterize their safety implications.
1. Tesla has conducted and publicly released its internal assessments of these data observations. This information request will allow NHTSA to independently authenticate or refute what Tesla has been saying all along about the overall safety implications of these features.
2. We’ll have ‘leading indicators’ as to where on the authenticity-refute spectrum NHTSA is likely to fall by the intensity of pushback, if any, Tesla exhibits in its response to some or all of this ‘Information Request”
4. What adds to the utopist view of this request is that it is so intense and deep, that such a request would only be made if NHTSA knew that Tesla has the data, can readily respond and likely wants NHTSA’s help in solving this challenge.
1. Moreover, Tesla realizes that it alone can’t sufficiently control the creative mis-behaving elements of the human-in-the-loop aspects of these features. It needs NHTSA’s enforcement power for the “we-know-you-bought-it-but-if-we-catch-you-explicitly-misusing-it-you-lose-it-without-reimbursement” response.
5. What may have sealed this deal is Tesla’s realization that today, it may be the only car company that has a ghost of a chance to comply with such an information request. None have invested in sufficient sensing infrastructure to source the data, let alone the communications infrastructure to collect the data or the back-end infrastructure to analyze or store the data. I’ve owned a car(s) for 10 years that perform autopilot-like stuff that if I didn’t pay attention or hung a weight on the steering wheel and hopped in the back seat, I’d be dead. That company made zero effort throughout those 10 years to learn what I was doing with their ‘AutoPilot’ or made any attempt to see if I was misusing it or anything (expect inform me of the gas $ I would save if I traded in and bought a new one. It couldn’t even help me find the car when it was stolen from my driveway in front of my house because I left the remote key inside, and that remote ignition system is detectable from afar such that any Soprano in Jersey can remotely determine that I left the key inside and readily use the car for his pleasure. Whew! I digress. ).
Bottom-line is if Tesla largely complies with this request, NHTSA will be happy, Tesla will be happy, the traveling public will be safer, and the rest of the auto industry is going to experience a rude awakening that they’d better invest in the sensor, communication and back-end infrastructure to match or leapfrog Tesla, else they have no hope of incorporating any advanced driver assistance, let alone “Level 3”.
Alain
Sunday, May 5, 2024
The Business of Safe Car Design
M. Sena, May 2024, “THE MOTIVATION FOR writing this article was a tragic oc-currence: A person drove their car into a body of water and died. This incident became international news for two reasons: 1) the person who drove the car was well-known and very wealthy; 2) the person was the sister of Elaine Chao, who is both a former U.S. Secretary of Transportation and the wife of the current U.S. Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell. The fact that the car was a TESLA added to the interest because the reason the car ended up in the water was linked to TESLA’s unconventional gear-shifting design.
Approximately 400 people die each year in the U.S. in car accidents involving vehicle submersion.1…” Read More Hmmmm… Michael reflects on two transport-related incidents, both resulting in deaths. There was a container ship that collided with a bridge support in Baltimore in which six workers who were on the bridge perished, and there was a woman who drove her car into a lake and drowned. Both have been classified as accidents, because there seems to have been no malicious intent involved in either incident. However, both were preventable if those who were in charge of setting policies had made different decisions than the ones which allowed these deaths to occur. The pilot of the ship that collided with the bridge pier, and the driver of the vehicle that ended up in the water, bear responsibility for those actions which were under their control. The politicians who decided not to put guards around the piers, and the car manufacturer who decided to make gear shifting a test of video gaming acumen, share some the accountability. But the voters who put the politicians in their comfortable chairs, and the shareholders who have applauded the inventiveness and ingenuity of company leadership, do not escape criticism. Ultimately, it should not be a city or a state that decides whether to protect vital (and very expensive) infrastructure from being hit by wayward ships, and it should not be individual car companies who decide whether their cars can be driven by individuals who are incapacitated as a result of alcohol or drugs. Excellent read. Alain
Saturday, April 13, 2024
NJ AI Summit
Princeton University, April 11, “NJ AI Summit, hosted by Princeton in partnership with New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and the NJ Economic Development Authority, takes place on April 11, 2024, on Princeton’s campus. The summit will convene leaders from the region and beyond to explore AI applications in health, finance, sustainable energy and technology, while also addressing the societal implications of AI and the opportunities to advance AI education and workforce development.
This is an invitation-only event. Recordings will be made available shortly after the event.
Program Schedule …” Read More Hmmmm… What a fantastic event. This was the first event that I’ve attended in which the “dignitaries”(among them, Princeton President Eisgruber and Governor Murphy) not only gave substantive keynotes (right around noon), but also sat in the audience, front and center, from the start and absorbed all that was presented to the rest of the invited attendees. I am really pumped. Alain
Tesla starts leaning into advantages of supervised FSD
J. Huang, March 18, “ With the release and warm reception to FSD V12.3, it appears that Tesla is now leaning towards promoting the advanced driver-assist system as a supervised solution that can make driving a lot easier. This was hinted at in recently leaked emails from Elon Musk and Tesla’s own posts on social media.
Tesla FSD V12.3 has been very impressive so far, with many users stating that the advanced driver-assist system can now navigate inner city streets like a fairly capable human driver. This does not mean to say that FSD has become a fully hands-free system, of course, but it does suggest that the system has improved to a degree where it can now navigate the intricacies of inner city driving confidently and safely. ….
While Tesla does seem to be changing its tone somewhat with regard to FSD’s marketing, the company’s focus on supervised FSD — at least for now — does help emphasize just how far ahead Tesla is compared to other automakers also offering advanced driver-assist solutions. …” Read More Hmmmm… Good, this is a beginning of a name change so the words “Fxxx, Syyy Dzzzzz” will not be uttered again by anyone at Tesla, and that the operative word becomes “Supervised xyz.” Now, it is OK if xyz is FSD; however, “supervised” is not only by the driver to remind them that they are responsible if anything bad happens and by Tesla, to ensure that its product is not misused by the driver and the driver behaves while using “Supervised xyz”. If the driver wishes to not be supervised in their use of Supervised xyz, then that person should, under no circumstances, be permitted to engage/use “Supervised xyz” . End of story! Alain
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Special Edition
I Am AI | NVIDIA GTC 2024 | Official Keynote Intro
J. Huang, March 18, “ Watch NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s GTC keynote to catch all the announcements on AI advances that are shaping our future….” Read More Hmmmm… Certainly worth your time to watch the whole 2 hours. The Living Art interactive Large Nature Model: Living Art interactive graphic display at the very beginning is phenomenal. Pictures of us in front of Large Nature Model: one, two. From the audience in center stage, it had 3-D perception without 3-D glasses. A reasonable 16 minute Cliff’s Notes version is here, although it misses what I thought was his most interesting comment about the advantages of hardware-supported low precision computing. Alain & Elizabeth
Saturday, March 23, 2024
Editor’s note….
Alain Kornhauser & Elizabeth Monroe, March 23, “Near the top of last week’s issue of SmartDrivingCar.com/12.11-Alex_Roy-3/16/24 we reported on IIHS/HDLI’s Partial automation safeguard ratings with the “ …Read More Hmmmm… Really good rating system; however, it could be much better if it started by insisting that the car have a really excellent emergency braking system augmented with an unintended acceleration over-ride. Alain …”
As will become apparent, we would like to extend that Hmmmm… to read: Hmmmm… Really good rating system; however, it could be much better if it started by insisting that the car have a really excellent emergency braking system augmented with an unintended acceleration over-ride as well as an unintended gear-shift. Alain & Elizabeth
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The Dispatcher_October 2024
The Real Case for Driverless Mobility
Tesla sends out invites to Robotaxi Event: Here’s the details
Tesla Full Self-Driving third-party testing shows ridiculous 13 miles between interventions
Waymo Rumored In Talks With Hyundai, While Motional CEO Leaves 
Tesla’s new Actually Smart Summon Update is INCREDIBLE
Tesla Makes $140,000/Car More Than Ford | Tesla’s $16 Billion Dollar Advantage 
Biden Administration Proposes Ban on Chinese Software in Vehicles
The Waymo Way: Making Autonomous Driving a Reality | Dmitri Dolgov
Using Autonomous Taxis to Create Shared Mobility: An Overview and a Dive into Data Management
