8.27-What??-062520

Thursday, June 25, 2020

SmartDrivingCar.com/8.27-What??-062520
27th edition of the 8th year of SmartDrivingCars

Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates Jump 36.6% in April Despite Quarantines, Says National Safety Council

Press release, June 24, ” Preliminary estimates based on April data from all 50 states indicate that for the second straight month, Americans did not reap any safety benefit from having less roadway traffic. In fact, the roads became even more lethal as miles driven plummeted. Preliminary estimates from the National Safety Council show a year-over-year 36.6% jump in fatality rates per miles driven in April, in spite of an 18% drop in the total number of roadway deaths compared to April 2019. The actual number of miles driven dropped 40% compared to the same time period last year. The mileage death rate per 100 million vehicle miles driven was 1.47 in April compared to 1.08 in 2019….

“Even without traffic, our roads were no safer,” said Lorraine M. Martin, president and CEO of the National Safety Council. “It is heartbreaking to see the carnage on our roadways continue, especially when our medical professionals should be able to focus intently on treating a pandemic rather than preventable car crashes. These numbers underscore our urgent need to change the culture of safety on our roads.” ..” Read more Hmmm…. Wow!!! Does COVID-19 have any silver linings?? So highway deaths aren’t as well correlated to VMT as we/I had thought. what are the other big terms is the relationship? Alcohol consumption?, Speed?, all the safe drivers staying home and only the high liability drivers (teenagers and Generation COVIDs out there texting??? Alain

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 162 – Cliff Winston

F. Fishkin, June 17, “From the Brookings Institution, Cliff Winston, co-author of Autonomous Vehicles…The Road to Economic Growth? joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..why are fatal crash rates rising in the midst of a pandemic…plus NVIDIA, Didi, Tesla and more.” “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!“. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 162 – Cliff Winston

Video version of SmartDrivingCars PodCast 162.… Alain

The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University’s Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.

SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 004 Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?

F. Fishkin, June 23, “But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about …”

Listen/Watch more Hmmm… We only scratched the surface. Alain

INRIX U.S. National Traffic Volume Synopsis Issue #14 (June 13 – June 19, 2020)

R. Schuman, June 22, “This is the 14th edition of a weekly review of changes in road traffic demand in the United States from the COVID-19 virus spread and our collective response.[1] We will endeavor to publish this Synopsis every Monday for the foreseeable future, providing results through Friday of the previous week. If interested in detailed information with daily updates, we have introduced the INRIX Trip Trends.

Key Findings:…” Read more Hmmm… Rick, continued excellent relative (to Saturday, February 29, 2020) measure of travel throughout the US. Compilation is assembled from an enormously large sample (~10% ) of individual daily trips.

In the past, there have been significant recurring seasonal variations in traffic that have been characterized using much less exhaustive datasets that estimate Vehicle Miles Traveled, by not actually counting miles traveled by vehicles, but by counting number of vehicles passing by a fixed set of locations (i) and “magically” referencing those Counts(i), i = 1, N, to a vmtRate(i), i = 1, N, and summing to get a total VMT measure.

Does anyone ever actually sample vehicle trips, measure the length of each and “correct for sampling bias while summing” to get an estimate of VMT??? Then again, the value of mobility is derived by individuals (and goods) so the real measure of interest is PMT (Person Miles Traveled) not VMT.

See also INRIX Onward Blog for other very interesting reports. Alain

Autonomous Vehicles: The Road to Economic Growth?

C. Winston, Q. Karpilow, July 2020, “… As this book argues, autonomous vehicles represent a watershed moment in the development of transportation. If properly encouraged, this innovation promises not only to vastly improve road travel and generate huge benefits to travelers, shippers, delivery companies but also benefit the entire economy by … In addition … the negative effects are generally overstated because….

As Bowler (2017) notes i the case of air transportation, as late as the 1920s skeptics still scoffed at the whole of a commercially viable aviation industry… Similarly, autonomous vehicles …. And it is plausible that competition among cities, states and even countries will develop and provide plausible incentives for policymakers to expedite the adoption and efficient operation of AVs….

This book draws three primary conclusions…

However, because we take the long-run view… our main focus here is on Level-5 vehicles. ” Read more Hmmm… Can’t wait for it to become available. Unfortunately, to me, “Level 5” is a euphemism for consumer owned and managed driverless cars that I’ve claimed don’t have a business case, therefore will “never” happen (just like the Segway???.

But read the book thinking Level 4… “Driverless mobility machines”. See also our ZoomCast with Cliff Winston. Alain

Nvidia and Mercedes-Benz detail self-driving system with automated routing and parking

K. Wiggers, June 23, “Nvidia today shed light on an expanded collaboration with Mercedes-Benz to roll out an in-vehicle computing system and AI infrastructure starting in 2024, which was first revealed last January. The two companies say the platform will launch across the fleet of next-generation Mercedes-Benz vehicles, imbuing those vehicles with upgradable automated driving functions.

The efforts build on a longstanding collaboration between Nvidia and Mercedes. At the 2018 Consumer Electronics Show, the companies showcased a concept cockpit dubbed the Mercedes-Benz User Experience, which infused AI into car infotainment systems. And in July 2018, Nvidia and Mercedes along with Bosch announced a partnership to operate a robo-taxi service in San Jose.

A headlining feature of the forthcoming Nvidia-designed system for Mercedes vehicles, which will be based on the former’s Drive product, is the ability to automate driving of regular routes from any address to address. In addition, the platform will allow customers to download in-car safety, convenience, entertainment, and subscription apps and services via an over-the-air in-car system akin to Tesla’s. ” Read more Hmmm…If one wonders why Tesla is so valuable one need only read starting in 2024 and akin to Tesla’s. At least they are planning to launch in 2024 and not later. Plus, while not a fan of Tesla’s StupidSummon and its various copycats, I wonder why they are focusing on parking. Way too prone to encourage misbehavior by owners.

Corresponding Press release by nVIDIA: Mercedes-Benz and NVIDIA to Build Software-Defined Computing Architecture for Automated Driving Across Future Fleet. and Blog with and nVIDIA Automotive Media Event. Alain

Watch Tesla Autopilot drive through green light ‘knowingly’ for the first time

F. Lambert, June 17, “Tesla Autopilot is now knowingly able to drive through green lights, and some owners are starting to test it out.
I emphasize “knowingly” because technically Autopilot has always been able to drive through intersections, but it didn’t really know what it was doing.

It was either trying to stay within a lane or to follow a lead car. Now Tesla Autopilot has evolved enough that it actually knows what it is doing… ” Read more Hmmmm… Impressive. But it really requires you to be paying attention because if it thinks green (green line across lane ahead on display) and you see the light has turned red, you’d better be ready to apply the brakes; else, you are about to be in very deep ca ca. See video. Alain

China’s Didi Aims for 1 Million Robotaxis on Its Platform by 2030

Reuters, June 23, “China’s ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing aims to operate more than 1 million self-driving cars through its platform by 2030, an executive said on Tuesday. Didi is developing autonomous driving technologies and plans to deploy so-called robotaxis in areas where there is a shortage of ride-hailing car supply, said Meng Xing, the chief operating officer of the company’s autonomous driving unit, at an online conference hosted by South China Morning Post..

While some industry insiders said it will take time for the public to trust autonomous vehicles fully, Meng said that Didi, which is developing autonomous cars with China’s BAIC Group [BEJINS.UL], expects autonomous vehicles to be in mass production by 2025.” Read more Hmmm… Why not. In some/many situations it may well be more reliable and substantially easier to dispatch a driverless mobility machine to serve trip makers, than convince a human driver that it is in their best interest to provide a high quality level-of-service. That’s been the role of machines throughout history, especially when machines become cheaper than human blood, sweat and tears. Alain

Tesla Autopilot confuses Burger King for stop signs, they turn into ad campaign

F. Lambert, June 25, “Burger King figured out that Tesla Autopilot’s new “Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control” feature can confuse Burger King signs for stop signs and they quickly turned it into an ad campaign.
In April, Tesla started to push an Autopilot update with the ability to detect and stop the vehicles at traffic lights and stop signs.

The new feature is called “Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control.” It is still in beta and it doesn’t always work as intended.

Burger King apparently figured out that sometimes, the new Autopilot feature can confuse its restaurant sign for a stop sign – prompting the car to slow down and stop for it.

They turned it into an interactive ad campaign featuring a Tesla Model 3:… ” Read more Hmmmm… See video. Cute plus free advertising for Tesla. Alain

New Flyer to deploy first automated heavy-duty transit bus in North America; supporting Connecticut’s pursuit of integrated mobility

Press release, June 22, “New Flyer of America Inc. (“New Flyer”), a subsidiary of NFI Group Inc. (“NFI”), one of the world’s leading independent global bus manufacturers, announced it will deploy North America’s first automated heavy-duty transit bus with the Connecticut Department of Transportation (“CTDOT”).

The automated driving demonstration project will include the deployment of three forty-foot battery-electric, Xcelsior CHARGE™ heavy-duty transit buses. The zero-emission deployment supports CTDOT’s demonstration project, funded by the Federal Transit Administration’s (“FTA”) Integrated Mobility Innovation (“IMI”) initiative, which supports projects demonstrating innovative and effective practices to enhance public transportation effectiveness, efficiency, quality, safety and transit rider experience.

This marks the first time an automated heavy-duty transit bus will be deployed in revenue service in North America. The project team is led by the CTDOT and consists of New Flyer, New Flyer’s technology partner Robotic Research, and the Center for Transportation and Environment (“CTE”), a nonprofit with extensive experience supporting FTA projects….” Read more Hmmm… All good, especially for improving the driver’s workplace. Can’t imagine that this automation is focused on replacing the driver, since it is being implemented on a large bus that carries many passengers so that each rider only has to contribute a small amount to pay for the driver. If it was a small bus carrying only a few people to where they want to go when they want to go, then the automation might have an opportunity to have the transit company affordably and profitably serve those kinds of customers. Alain

Segway: End of the road for the much-hyped two-wheeler

Staff, June 24, “Launched in 2001, the much-hyped self-balancing vehicle promised to revolutionise personal transport. The Segway, invented by US engineer Dean Kamen, debuted with much fanfare, but struggled to make a profit. Accidents didn’t help with the Segway’s popularity, and the company was bought by Chinese rival Ninebot in 2015.

Made at a factory in New Hampshire, in the US, production of the Segway Personal Transporter will end on 15 July.

Announcing the news, Segway president Judy Cai said: “Within its first decade, the Segway PT became a staple in security and law enforcement, viewed as an effective and efficient personal vehicle.” However, in the vehicle’s almost two decade-long hiNew Flyer of America Inc. (“New Flyer”), a subsidiary of NFI Group Inc. (“NFI”), one of the world’s leading independent global bus manufacturers, announced it will deploy North America’s first automated heavy-duty transit bus with the Connecticut Department of Transportation (“CTDOT”).

Draft Program 4th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit Postponed until Evening Oct. 20 through Oct. 22, 2020 (But will likely need to be completely Virtual, possibly in “Second life“)

A. Kornhauser, Feb 6, “The focus of the Summit this year will be moving beyond the AI and the Sensors to addressing the challenges of Commercialization and the delivery of tangible value to communities. We’ve made enormous progress with the technology. We’re doing the investment; however, this investment delivers value only if is commercialized: made available and is used by consumers in large numbers. Demos and one-offs are “great”, but to deliver value that is anywhere near commensurate with the magnitude of the investment made to date, initial deployments need to scale. We can’t just have “Morgantown PRT Systems” whose initial deployment has been nothing but enormously successful for 45 years (an essentially perfect safety record, an excellent availability record and customer valued mobility). Unfortunately, the system was never expanded or duplicated anywhere. It didn’t scale. It is a one-off.

Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale. In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va. which became the reference for many other cites. “… By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague’s equipment had been begun or planned on several continents…” Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology. It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.

In part, the 4th Summit will focus on defining the “Richmond” of Affordable Shared-ride On-demand Mobility-as-a-Service. The initial Operational Design Domain (ODD) that safely accommodates Driverless Mobility Machines that people actually choose to use and becomes the envy of communities throughout the country. ” Read more Hmmmm… Draft Program is in flux. Consider all named individuals as “Invited yet to be confirmed”. Alain