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Sunday, October 13, 2024

SmartDrivingCar.com/12.30-Wow-10/13/24

30th edition of the 12th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter


  SpaceX Launches Starship Flight 5 (and Catches A Booster)

J. Beyer, Oct. 13, “SpaceX is preparing the launch of the fifth Starship flight test. The window for the launch opens at 7 a.m. local time on Sunday. The company has confirmed on its website, and X, that it is targeting a potential catch of the Super Heavy test vehicle, if flight parameters allow for it…. “Read more   Hmmmm…   See also  SpaceX feed Worth watching from the very beginning.  Especially watch the NasaSpaceFlight link near the end where they play the views from their many cameras.  Absolutely marvelous what can be accomplished when you have very good people working together.  Also really good is having the public oversight (the FAA) grant permission to enable really good work to be realized.   Hopefully, a similar public oversight will allow and welcome driverless vehicles to give safe, affordable, high-quality rides to people who really need a ride.  Alain

A book cover of a book  Description automatically generatedThe Real Case for Driverless Mobility

Narrated by Fred Fishkin, Available now

Just Published!!!  Go to Amazon.com

 

 

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 382 / PodCast 382 – SpaceX, Cybercab and John Hopfield.

Space X wows with catch, Tesla’s Cybercab event and the potential impact on mobility, and Princeton’s John Hopfield captures 2024 Nobel Physics Prize. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the takeaways from the latest headlines and more. Tune in and subscribe!

0:00 open

0:30 SpaceX wows with landing

8:38 Tesla’s Cybercab event-Alain’s take on the ups and downs

18:22 Elon uses the elevator analogy!

21:12 Forbes piece- Can’t Get a Cybercab? Wave Down a Waymo.

22:40 AutoEvolution: 5 Polarizing Facts from Tesla’s We Robot Cybercab Unveiling Event

26:26 Presentation from Alain’s students on shared mobility at Next Generation Systems Conference

27:45 More on Cybercabs and questions about insurance

39:02 Princeton’s John Hopfield wins Nobel Physics Prize!

 

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCasts

 

  News conference with Princeton professor John Hopfield, laureate of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics

C. Eisgruber, Oct. 9, “ Nobel Physics Prize Awarded for Pioneering A.I. Research by 2 Scientists…” Watch video Hmmmm…    Wow!!!  Elizabeth and I are so blessed to have John and his wife Mary as good friends of ours.  We play golf together and discuss neural nets in his back yard.  So deserving as is Goeff Hinton.  This has been a fantastic past 7 days.  Wow!!! Alain

 

Tesla RoboTaxi Event October 10, 2024

Tesla Press Release, Oct 10, “Tesla Unveils 2-Seater Cybercab That Drives Itself, Price Expected To Be Under $30K: Also Shows Off 20-Seater Robovan To Rival Uber Shuttle – https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/4….” Read more    Hmmmm…    I should have been there, but wasn’t invited.  I’m disappointed, but not surprised.  Unfortunately, they haven’t read (or listened to)  all of  The Book.  They sort of got the elevator analogy correct, but it is hard to believe that they stayed with the 4 year-old 2-seater version, which is OK for most of the day,  but doesn’t enable enough ridesharing opportunities to efficiently, effectively, environmentally or affordably address daily recurring peak-hour demand.   

 

“The RoboToaster” is OK, but high volume A2B demand is handled well today by driven buses, as has been occurring on the XBL by professionally driven express buses since John C. Kohl created that corridor more than 50 years ago.  If demand exists such that a RoboToaster can be at least half-full, then one has enough customers to pay for a human driver, and the value of the “unsupervised FSD” RoboToaster becomes marginal at best but not at all  disruptive.  Thus, the RoboToaster can be a nice stretch limo for the well-heeled, but most-likely just an expensive toy that can’t possibly contribute anything substantive to Tesla’s bottom line.

What is encouraging is that they included “the RoboModelY’ in their list of platforms for unsupervised FSDs, and that  mention was made of supporting organizations that wished to acquire fleets to give rides.  Our analyses indicate that many cities across the country could benefit greatly from such fleets that could  provide safe, affordable high-quality rides equitably.  We’ve analyzed many such communities and can help.  Please contact us via email if you are interested in investigating driverless mobility opportunities for your community.  Alain

 

  Can’t Get A Tesla Cybercab? Wave Down A Waymo

B. Crothers, Oct. 13, “The Tesla Cybercab won’t arrive until 2026. But Waymo’s driverless service is here today.

Tesla here and now — FSD: But let’s back up for a minute and address what Tesla is offering now and in the foreseeable future. It’s not a Robotaxi. But you can get Tesla’s Supervised Full Self Driving, aka FSD, for $99 a month on a Model Y or Model 3 or Cybertruck — or any Tesla. It is not full autonomy, however. FSD requires intervention, i.e., you have to take back control of the car — sometimes frequently, sometimes not so frequently. But in either case, it’s Level 2 autonomy. That is, you never completely surrender control of the car…. 

 

I recently took a 30 minute drive in a Waymo driverless vehicle in Beverly Hills and it was amazing.  … The only downside to Waymo is that it’s geofenced, i.e., it is only available in a geographically bounded part of Los Angeles. (I would love to be able to take Waymo to LAX but currently that’s not possible.)…”  Read more    Hmmmm…    Neither Waymo nor Crothers have read The Book. Few in Beverly Hills need a ride; they all have so many options that are better than Waymo and the 2-seater selfie entertainment value.  This article never even comes close to suggesting how driverless technology could actually be used to give rides to people in LA who really need a ride.  Alain

 

   5 Polarizing Facts From Tesla’s “We, Robot” Cybercab Unveiling Event

C. Agatie, Oct. 12, “….This sealed the transformation of Tesla from a highly vertically-integrated carmaker into an artificial intelligence and robotics firm for which vehicles are an afterthought….  

1. Fully autonomous Tesla EVs versus dedicated robotaxi…

4. If Tesla doesn’t allow buyout at the end of the lease, why would it allow purchasing the robotaxi?…

However, considering that complying with regulations and the rollout would take time, why would Tesla sell these robotaxis to third parties? After all, it plans to start its own

robotaxi business and give Uber, Lift, and even Waymo a run for their money. Why share this revenue stream with others?…

5. FSD regulatory hurdles and scaling up robotaxi…

However, Tesla will have to prove that its FSD software is safe with human supervision before being allowed to try unsupervised driving….”  Read more    Hmmmm…    Tesla is going to need help if these are to give rides to anyone other than their owner and their family members and friends.  Some of us believe that Cybercabs/RoboTaxis are supposed to give safe, affordable, high-quality rides to customers who really need a ride. Alain

 

  Using Autonomous Taxis to Create Shared Mobility: An Overview and a Dive into Data Management
T. Mwangi’26 & S. Navaratnam-Tomayko’26, Sept. 22, “Presentation made at Next-Generation Transport Systems Conference (NGTS-4) @ Purdue University
. ”.…”   Read more   Hmmmm…    So proud of them and they won one of the two “best paper” awards.  Alain

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Previous SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast/PodCasts

 

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 381 / PodCast 381 – w Michael Sena: data privacy, Northvolt, Tesla and more.
F. Fishkin, Sept 27, “ The privacy of the data and communications in your car. That’s topic one as The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 381 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus…what happened to Northvolt, what will happen at Tesla’s robotaxi unveil and more. Tune in and subscribe!

0:00 open

0:54 Vehicle telecommunications and data privacy battle

22:40 What happened to Sweden’s Northvolt

27:17 The efforts to stop the importing of inexpensive Chinese vehicles. Is the rest of the world toast?

45:55 Tesla prepares for the robotaxi unveiling October 10

54:35 Reuters reports Waymo discussions with Hyundai on vehicle platform and remarks from Waymo co-CEO at University of Michigan

1:00:35 Two of Alain’s students deliver at the Next Generation Systems Conference

 

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 380 / PodCast 380 – w Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Sept 1, “Tariffs on EVs from China,  is congestion pricing in NYC really dead, Waymo, Tesla and more.  Tune in as the co-author of The Real Case for Driverless Mobility, Michael Sena, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 380 of Smart Driving Cars.
0:00 open
01:15 from The Dispatcher- Delivering Transport Systems- the tariffs on China and more
16:41 Dispatch Central- New York City Congestion Pricing Halted.   For now, at least.
27:52 The push to provide rides beyond mass transit
32:00 New Driver Control Assistance Systems regulation being developed by UN Economic Commission for Europe
40:00  Gas tax was elegant for funding transportation…now what?
49:00  News coverage of Waymo car going wrong way into oncoming traffic in Arizona
52:02  University of Buffalo researchers probe safety of AI in driverless cars…and cyber-security discussion
1:02:05 WSJ headline asks How Will Self Driving Cars Make Ethical Decisions on the Road
1:03:06  Self driving pods to take passengers from  Atlanta Airport to College Park
1:04:40 Florida AV Conference this coming week

 

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 379 / PodCast 379 – Time to Pivot-Hamburg-Waymo-Tesla & more
F. Fishkin, Aug 26, “ Time to Pivot is the lead in the latest Smart Driving Cars podcast and newsletter. The effort is underway to provide HandyRides for driverless mobility. Plus ..join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-hosts Fred Fishkin for more on micro transit in Hamburg, Waymo, Tesla and the question of robotaxis for school kids.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 378 / PodCast 378 – Cry’n Shame

 GM’s Cruise abandons the Origin purposely designed robotaxi in favor of the Chevy Bolt. Former CEO Kyle Vogt calls it disappointing. Plus the audiobook version of The Real Case for Driverless Mobility arrives. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 378 of Smart Driving Cars.

 

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 377 / PodCast 377 -What would GreenVille MOVES look like

The push towards affordable driverless mobility continues on episode 377 of Smart Driving Cars. Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin show what GreenVille Moves would look like. Plus ..the EU mandates speed limiters, Tesla adding parental controls for teen drivers and more.

0:00 open

0:49 Congrats to Alain’s students who took part in the Henley Royal Regatta

2:04 Launching of HandyRides continues for affordable mobility

3:15 Demo of what GreenVilleMOVES would look like

33:30 EU is mandating speed limiters

34:15 Tesla update to give parents control over teen driver speed and more

39:50 The Drive report on Mercedes engineer criticism of Tesla FSD and its impact on public attitudes toward autonomous driving tech.

42:04 The Verge report on Distance Technologies windshield AR heads up display

45:00 Ken Pyle’s Viodi piece on Smart Driving Car Summit

 

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 376 / PodCast 376 -a mobility start-up is launched

July 1st marks the launch of a new mobility start-up!   Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for details.   Plus..GM Cruise pays for crash report delays, Rimac robotaxis and automakers ask for reconsideration of automatic emergency braking rules.
 
0:00 open
00:32 July 1 new mobility start-up launch
22:58 GM Cruise  to pay California for delaying crash report
25:23 Rimac robotaxis?
26:20 auto industry wants automatic emergency braking rule reconsidered

 

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 375 / PodCast 375 Elon Musk talks Tesla robotaxis and more. Maybe for Brownsville?

F. Fishkin, June 15, ” With Elon Musk divulging more about how Telsa robotaxis may operate, Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser demonstrates how they could be used to serve Brownsville, Texas. And the plan could be replicated anywhere. Plus the latest on Waymo and Cruise. Join Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 375 of Smart Driving Cars.

0:00 open

0:30 Musk talks robotaxi business, Tesla Semis and more new vehicles

15:27 Alain shows how a Brownsville MOVES mobility service could work.

36:19 Waymo issues software and mapping recall following telephone pole crash in Phoenix

43:10 GM investing 850 million dollars in Cruise and resuming operations in Houston

 

Link to  previous 351 -> 375  SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

Link to  previous 326 -> 350  SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

  Link to  previous 301 -> 325  SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

Link to  previous 276 -> 300  SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Link to 275 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

 


Recent Highlights of SDC eLetter

 

Friday, September 27, 2024

The Dispatcher_October 2024
M. Sena, September 26, “… It is when management becomes detatched from the business, the nitty gritty details, that things start to slide and principles are compromised. This is what appears to have happened at OnStar with customer data being shared with data aggregators and used for rating the driving performance for insurance purposes. Automotive companies used to pride themselves on having management and di[1]rectors who knew the business. Now they pride themselves on having people who know nothing about the business.  It’s time for the pendulum to swing back.”.  Read more   Hmmmm…
   Another wonderful and provocative issue.  Enjoy!.  Alain

 

Sunday, September 1, 2024  

The Dispatcher_September 2024

M. Sena, August 28, “Amidst wars, riots, assassination attempts, the Olympic Games, changes of presidential plans, and a two-day collapse of the world’s stock markets, the automobile industry putters along, trying to find a balance between ICEs and BEVs. When the summer started, the U.S. and EU were slapping tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, and the Chinese government was threatening to respond in turn. It has been quiet on both the western and eastern automotive fronts since then, but when summer turns to autumn, the topic of tariffs will rise again. The lead article in this September issue is intended to put a long range perspective on the issues and give one man’s view of what is at stake for the players.”.  Read more   Hmmmm…    As usual, most interesting and informative reading.  The China challenge, like the driverless challenge and challenges in general, is not easy.  Alain

 

Monday, August 26, 2024

Time to Pivot

Alain Kornhauser, August 25, “Following our very successful 6th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit at the end of May, Elizabeth and I have spent the summer preparing to pivot from commenting and Hmmm…ing about what others are doing, or not doing, with SmartDrivingCars to preparing ourselves to actually do what Michael Sena and I described in our book:  “putting driverless vehicles to use for those who really need a ride”. 

We are putting together a team to take the first step in actually beginning to capture some societal value out of the $300 Billion that’s been invested in this technology since the DARPA Challenges 20 years ago.  Just to have an RoI of 1.0 will require the giving of 30 Billion rides if the societal value of each ride averages @ $10/ride.  If only $1/ride, it will take 300 Billion rides for this technology to break even. 

 

This certainly has been a moonshot investment in that it has been really hard, but so far, unless a lot is wiped clean, those that have been in it carry a heavy burden. 

 

But what is sunk is sunk, so we are jumping in.  It looks like we’re going to call it HandyRides, Inc. and focus on taking the first step to implementing our book.   We have version 1 of our elevator pitch (feedback welcomed) and a plan that we’ve begun to implement with some very good members of what we are calling “our coalition of the willing”.  Read more   Hmmmm…    Wish us luck.  We can use all the help that we can get, so if you wish to help, let us know via return eMail to mailto:alaink@princeton.edu?subject=I want to help …. Also hope to see you at the Florida AV Conference in Tampa in two weeks.  Alain

 

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

GM’s Cruise abandons Origin robotaxi, takes $583 million charge

K. Korosec, July 23, “GM’s self-driving car subsidiary Cruise is scrapping plans to build the Origin — a purpose-built robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals — and will instead use the next-generation Chevrolet Bolt in its operations.

GM Chair and CEO Mary Barra told shareholders Tuesday the decision will “simplify their path to scale” and addresses the regulatory uncertainty faced with the Origin robotaxi because of its unique design. The per-unit costs will also be much lower, which will help Cruise optimize its resources, Barra said in the shareholder letter released alongside the company’s second-quarter earnings. 

GM reported a financial charge of $583 million in the second quarter that is tied to the non-cash write-off of Origin assets and other restructuring costs. The Cruise subsidiary had an operating loss of $1.14 billion in the second quarter that included a $605 million impairment charge …” Read more   Hmmmm…    RIP.  Alain

 

Former Cruise CEO responds to GM canceling Origin self-driving vehicle 

Z. Visconti, July 23, “A founder and former CEO of Cruise, the General Motors (GM) self-driving unit, has responded to the announcement that the company will be suspending plans for its Origin driverless vehicle to focus on a next-generation vehicle instead.

GM officially announced plans to suspend the Cruise Origin self-driving vehicle in its Q2 2024 letter to shareholders on Tuesday, after initially halting production of the driverless vehicle last year.

Former CEO and Cruise co-founder Kyle Vogt responded to the news on X on Tuesday, saying he was “disappointed to see GM kill the Origin.”…”  Read more   Hmmmm…  What a Cry’n Shame.  Elizabeth & I are setting out to fill the void by “giving rides to those who really need a ride”.  If you are interested in joining our “Coalition of the Willing”, then send your resume.  Alain

 

The Real Case for Driverless Mobility

 

Tuesday, July 9, 2024

 

Henley Champs: Princeton 1V Takes Ladies’ Plate Title

Staff, , July7, “The literal finish line at the Henley Royal Regatta can seem pretty far away at times. The figurative one can seem further.

If you’re one of the fortunate crews to get to the latter, then there are few feelings in rowing that can match it. Ask the members of the Princeton first varsity 8. After a grueling week of racing, Princeton is officially a 2024 Henley champion.…”. See video Hmmmm… So proud that 2 on my “Lion SmartDrivingCar” interns were members of that winning boat.   Patrick Shaw’26 was n seat 2 and is a current summer intern and Nick Taylor’24 interned last summer.  Nick did much of the development of the cost model for our MOVES design and Analysis System and Patrick has been working with Timothy Mwangi to improve the database management aspects and parallelization of various aspects of the system simulation. So proud.  😊 Alain

GreenVilleMOVES: Generating an initial MOVES configuration: GreenVilleDemo20

Alain Kornhauser, July 8, “Video describing the use of the MOVES-style Design, Analysis & Simulation System …” Watch video   Hmmmm…   Nice.  Alain

 

Monday, July 1, 2024 

Welcome to the Summer 2024

Alain Kornhauser, July 1, “…”. Hmmmm… Welcome to the summer of 2024. 
45 years ago to the day, my first wife Katherine and I launched our first “start-up” focused on fixing the hopelessly bankrupt Northeast railroads. Mark Hornung was the first employee and remained dedicated throughout his career as did others including Mike Bodden, Danni Titus, Dan Popkin and Michael Kornhauser, who for the past 11.5 years has grown and nurtured this critical pillar within its new parent.   I couldn’t be prouder!
Today, Elizabeth and I return to the Summer of ’79 and announce the launch of our start-up focused on creating the Proof-of-Market for “The Real Case for Driverless Mobility: Giving Rides to Those Who Really Need a Ride”.  While we still don’t have a name for this entity and haven’t completed the legal arrangements, we do have a number of dedicated individuals willing to put in the sweat to identify in detail who really needs a ride from where to where, when and subsequently manage fleets of vehicles that serve their needs affordably. 
Since at the beginning our capacity is miniscule, our efforts will be focused exclusively on serving those whose needs are greatest and can be served most safely.  As our capacity, technology and experience grows, we will scale to serve more of the many whose lives can be improved substantially from the availability of affordable high-quality mobility that serves their needs safely from where they are, to where they want to go, when they want to go there.
For now, we are finishing the paperwork and are calling our entity HandyRides, Inc. 
😊 Alain

 

Saturday, June 15, 2024

Elon Musk’s PREDICTIONS Just Left Audience SPEECHLESS!!

Farzad, June 13, “…”.  Watch Video  Hmmmm… Very interesting, especially now with a modified “AirB&B” extension. 😊 Alain

 

Monday, May 27, 2024

Dispatch Central:  The 6th Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit
Michael Sena,  June 1, AFTER THE 4TH PRINCETON SMARTDRIVINGCARS SUMMIT, which was held virtually due to COVID, Alain Kornhauser and I agreed co-author a book that would explain why driverless cars have an important place in the future of transportation. That was three years ago, and the book was published in January of this year. The chapters of the book provided the organizing structure for much of the 6TH SUMMIT held in the PRINCETON UNIVERSITY School of International Affairs on 30-31 May. The agenda for the two days is shown below.

A close-up of a calendar  Description automatically generated 

 

There were three major differences between this Summit and the previous five. First, most of the participants were invited and were expected to deliver a keynote, give a presentation on one of the three principal topics and three principal themes, and/or participate in a panel. The topics were People Who Drive Themselves; People Who Need a Ride; and Non-People (e.g., freight) that Need a Ride. The themes were: Proof of Concept; Proof of Market; and Proof of Policy.

 

The second difference was that there were no separate workshops or break-out sessions. All the participants heard everything that everyone else heard. Active engagement and discussion was encouraged.

Thirdly, and most importantly, the 6TH SUMMIT had single focus, which was to discuss the immediate opportunities for implementing our recommended approach to delivering rides to the unserved and underserved members of communities, those who cannot afford to own or operate a car, those who are not able to afford taxis or who do not have friends or families who can provide rides, or who are not able to drive themselves. In past summits, participants presented their views on the current status of advanced driver systems and driverless technologies, and there was no carry-over from summit to summit. It felt like there was no progress being made on the goal of delivering affordable mobility to those who who need it. That was the principal reason that Alain and I decided to author our book, to make a compelling case for driverless mobility.

“The novelty of driverless vehicles is that there is no driver, and the only thing that should mean to the rider is that the cost of the trip is significantly lower. The vehicle itself should not be a novelty.”

Chapter 6: The Business Proposition of Affordable Mobility

Meeting the unmet need for mobility

In the U.S., 89% of adults over 25, totaling 205 million people, have driver’s licenses, but that does not mean they all drive. 79% of those over 75 who have drivers’ licenses, representing 7% of the total population, drive once per year. 71% of 16-19- year-olds, which is 9% of the population, drive once per year. Either they do not own their own car, or the family car is used by another family member. Four percent of licensed drivers lose their license each year. That is 8 million drivers. Twenty-five percent of all U.S. adults over 25, which is 57 million people, have a disability that affects their ability to drive. And the big number of unserved or underserved are the 52% of households that have incomes lower than $75,000 and cannot afford a car costing over over $29,000.

The diagram below shows the approximate percent of daily trips that are made by people with their own car, by people taking public transport and walking, and by taxi or equivalent. The vast majority of trips are made by car, and many of them have no passengers.

 

A diagram of a daily trips  Description automatically generatedThe real case for driverless mobility is meeting the unmet needs of people who cannot afford to own and operate their own car, cannot drive, cannot afford to be chauffeured, and cannot take public transport, either because it does not exist or does not take them to where they need to go when they need to get there. It is not a replacement for the private car, the bus, a taxi, or people’s own two feet. Perhaps, in time, sustaining improvements will make it attractive to those who are not underserved because it provides affordable and convenient rides, but we should not wait for a replacement to a private, self-driven car or a chauffeured taxi to use driverless technology within controlled operational design domains.

On the second day of the Summit, we showed a simulation of how driverless cars could be employed within a community to deliver point-to-point rides. Pick-up and drop-off points are positioned within a five-minute walk of all residences, and daily trips from each household are calculated based on census data. Simulated trips to work, school, shopping, recreation, and all other places are estimated based on the demographics of the residences within the census district. A significant amount of time and effort has been put into developing the simulator over the years by Alain and his students, and they are all credited with special mention at the end or out book.

It’s time for MOVES to get moving

At this time next year, there should be a real MOVES23 pilot project in a real community, not just a simulation. That is the goal. If there is a 7TH SMARTDRIVINGCARS SUMMIT, it should be a celebration of the achievement of that goal, but the real purpose of having a gathering is for participants to roll up their sleeves and discuss problems that have been identified during the previous year and ways to make improvements. There will be other venues to talk about driverless freight applications, driverless vehicle standards development, safety, and insurance, and we should do all we can to support developments in all areas. However, if the mission of SmartDrivingCars—at least as I understood it—is to be fulfilled, it is with delivering rides to the large number of people who need a ride but who cannot afford one..…” Read More  Hmmmm… Here we go. We’re beginning to do it.  Alain

 

Monday, May 27, 2024

On self driving, Waymo is playing chess while Tesla plays checkers
Timothy Lee,  May 21, “.Tesla fans—and CEO Elon Musk himself—are excited about the prospects for Tesla’s Full Self Driving (FSD) software. Tesla released a major upgrade—version 12.3—of the software in March. Then last month
Musk announced that Tesla would unveil a purpose-built robotaxi on August 8. Last week Elon Musk announced that a new version of FSD—12.4—is coming out in the coming days and will have a “5X to 10X improvement in miles per intervention.”

But I think fans expecting Tesla to launch a driverless taxi service in the near future are going to be disappointed.

During a late March trip to San Francisco, I had a chance to try the latest self-driving technology from both Tesla and Google’s Waymo. 

During a 45-minute test drive in a Tesla Model X, I had to intervene twice to correct mistakes by the FSD software. In contrast, I rode in driverless Waymo vehicles for more than two hours and didn’t notice a single mistake.

So while Tesla’s FSD version 12.3 seems like a significant improvement over previous versions of FSD, it still lags behind Waymo’s technology.…” Read More  Hmmmm… True!  Very thoughtful article.  But chess is way too tough for me to enjoy.  That’s for my friend,  Jon Crumiller.  (He is really good! 😊) Maybe checkers can be good enough for me?  Alain

 

Sunday, May 19, 2024

The Battle for the Streets of New York
D. Stewart,  May 13, “On a recent morning, the intersection of East 77th Street and Lexington Avenue presented a vivid illustration of the tumult.
A taxi trying to make a left turn had to maneuver around a Verizon crew digging up the asphalt. A box truck was parked in the bus lane, and the M102 bus, with its accordionlike belly, was forced to change lanes and snake around it.
Dozens of people streamed out of the subway and into the crosswalk. A man pushing a double stroller navigated between the subway entrance and a sidewalk compost box. A woman’s shopping cart wheels got stuck in a crack in the sidewalk. CitiBikes and delivery bikes whizzed by. A cargo bike stopped in front of a FedEx truck that was unloading packages next to a bike lane.
Lively, energetic streets make city living attractive — people to watch, windows to browse, benches to sit on, trees for shade. 
But lately, New York City streets are teetering between lively and unlivable. Residents clash over traffic, noise, parking, 5G towers and heaps of trash. Most years, far fewer pedestrians get killed by motorists than in generations past, but last year was the deadliest year for cyclists since 1999.…”
Read More  Hmmmm
…   Waymo wants to play on these streets in this context?  Is no one in the room going to raise their hand and ask: “We want to do what??  Doesn’t anyone recall Napoleon’s invasion of Moscow ?”
Is Waymo as  clueless as Apple, when nobody in any room during any meeting raised their hand and ventured: “Doesn’t Crush! embody the perfect antithesis of our brilliant 1984 Superbowl ad?  What are people thinking around here???” Alain

 

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Information Request ID RQ24009 to Mr. Gates:

G. Magno, May 6, “This letter is to inform you that the Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened a Recall Query (RQ24009) to investigate the remedy effectiveness of Recall 23V838. …” Read More   Hmmmm…   A remedy was implemented, and its effectiveness is being investigated.  Fair enough! 

Actually, beyond fair to very good…  In this case, involving extremely rare events,  data are available to indicate that the defect may still persist.  

Moreover, beyond very good to fantastic … In this case, current data may also be available that may enable the precise quantification of the effectiveness of the remedy in the real world and the design and dissemination of a more effective remedy. 

As someone existing in the antiseptic world of an ‘academic bubble’ and carefully reading all 18 pages of the ‘Information Request,’ I’m wondering if this isn’t completely uncharted territory for NHTSA, if not all safety-responsible entities in terms of its depth and timeliness?

I suspect that, given the opportunity, lawyers use ‘discovery’ to go on very deep fishing expeditions, but this one seems different.  It seems like they know for what they are fishing, that the fish exist, and that the fish may actually be anxious and willing to get caught so as to be able to jointly solve this nasty problem … Wow!  and possibly derive even more societal value in the process … Wow, Wow!!

 Is life really this good???

In this case it may well be…

1.       Neither NHTSA nor Tesla want ‘AutoPilot’ or ‘Supervised FSD’ or ‘whatever you call it’ to be technologically unsafe. This can largely be done (and has been) in the lab,  in simulation and in controlled real-world environments.

2.       Nor do either want misbehaving users to misbehave implicitly or explicitly in using these products.  Unfortunately, this “human-in-the-loop” aspect of these technologies today aren’t done well in the lab, in simulation or controlled real-world tests.  They are so nuanced by the creative work-around gaming feedback employed objectively by explicit misbehavers and, unfortunately, by as yet unobserved and unanticipated implicit misbehaviors. 

3.       The utopic beauty of where we might find ourselves today is that Tesla has deployed the infrastructure that enables observation and the documentation, through real-time data capture, of the performance of these features that effectively characterize their safety implications.

1.        Tesla has conducted and publicly released its internal assessments of these data observations.   This information request will allow NHTSA to independently authenticate or refute what Tesla has been saying all along about the overall safety implications of these features. 

2.       We’ll have ‘leading indicators’ as to where on the authenticity-refute spectrum NHTSA is likely to fall by the intensity of pushback, if any, Tesla exhibits in its response to some or all of this ‘Information Request”

4.       What adds to the utopist view of this request is that it is so intense and deep, that such a request would only be made if NHTSA knew that Tesla has the data, can readily respond and likely wants NHTSA’s help in solving this challenge.

1.       Moreover, Tesla realizes that it alone can’t sufficiently control the creative mis-behaving elements of the human-in-the-loop aspects of these features.  It needs NHTSA’s enforcement power for the “we-know-you-bought-it-but-if-we-catch-you-explicitly-misusing-it-you-lose-it-without-reimbursement” response.  

5.       What may have sealed this deal is Tesla’s realization that today, it may be the only car company that has a ghost of a chance to comply with such an information request.  None have invested in sufficient sensing infrastructure to source the data, let alone the communications infrastructure to collect the data or the back-end infrastructure to analyze or store the data.  I’ve owned a car(s) for 10 years that perform autopilot-like stuff that if I didn’t pay attention or hung a weight on the steering wheel and hopped in the back seat, I’d be dead. That company made zero effort throughout those 10 years to learn what I was doing with their ‘AutoPilot’ or made any attempt to see if I was misusing it or anything (expect inform me of the gas $ I would save if I traded in and bought a new one.  It couldn’t even help me find the car when it was stolen from my driveway in front of my house because I left the remote key inside, and that remote ignition system is detectable from afar such that any Soprano in Jersey can remotely determine that I left the key inside and readily use the car for his pleasure. Whew! I digress. ).

Bottom-line is if Tesla largely complies with this request, NHTSA will be happy, Tesla will be happy, the traveling public will be safer, and the rest of the auto industry is going to experience a rude awakening that they’d better invest in the sensor, communication and back-end infrastructure to match or leapfrog Tesla, else they have no hope of incorporating any advanced driver assistance, let alone “Level 3”.

Alain

 

Sunday, May 5, 2024 

   The Business of Safe Car Design

M. Sena, May 2024, “THE MOTIVATION FOR writing this article was a tragic oc-currence: A person drove their car into a body of water and died. This incident became international news for two reasons: 1) the person who drove the car was well-known and very wealthy; 2) the person was the sister of Elaine Chao, who is both a former U.S. Secretary of Transportation and the wife of the current U.S. Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell. The fact that the car was a TESLA added to the interest because the reason the car ended up in the water was linked to TESLA’s unconventional gear-shifting design.

Approximately 400 people die each year in the U.S. in car accidents involving vehicle submersion.1…” Read More   Hmmmm…  Michael reflects on two transport-related incidents, both resulting in deaths. There was a container ship that collided with a bridge support in Baltimore in which six workers who were on the bridge perished, and there was a woman who drove her car into a lake and drowned. Both have been classified as accidents, because there seems to have been no malicious intent involved in either incident. However, both were preventable if those who were in charge of setting policies had made different decisions than the ones which allowed these deaths to occur. The pilot of the ship that collided with the bridge pier, and the driver of the vehicle that ended up in the water, bear responsibility for those actions which were under their control. The politicians who decided not to put guards around the piers, and the car manufacturer who decided to make gear shifting a test of video gaming acumen, share some the accountability. But the voters who put the politicians in their comfortable chairs, and the shareholders who have applauded the inventiveness and ingenuity of company leadership, do not escape criticism. Ultimately, it should not be a city or a state that decides whether to protect vital (and very expensive) infrastructure from being hit by wayward ships, and it should not be individual car companies who decide whether their cars can be driven by individuals who are incapacitated as a result of alcohol or drugs. Excellent read.  Alain

 

Saturday, April 13, 2024

 

NJ AI Summit

Princeton University, April 11, “NJ AI Summit, hosted by Princeton in partnership with New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and the NJ Economic Development Authority, takes place on April 11, 2024, on Princeton’s campus. The summit will convene leaders from the region and beyond to explore AI applications in health, finance, sustainable energy and technology, while also addressing the societal implications of AI and the opportunities to advance AI education and workforce development.

This is an invitation-only event. Recordings will be made available shortly after the event.

Program Schedule …” Read More   Hmmmm…  What a fantastic event. This was the first event that I’ve attended in which the “dignitaries”(among them, Princeton President Eisgruber and Governor Murphy) not only gave substantive keynotes (right around noon), but also sat in the audience, front and center, from the start and absorbed all that was presented to the rest of the invited attendees.  I am really pumped.  Alain

 

 Tesla starts leaning into advantages of supervised FSD

J. Huang, March 18, “ With the release and warm reception to FSD V12.3, it appears that Tesla is now leaning towards promoting the advanced driver-assist system as a supervised solution that can make driving a lot easier. This was hinted at in recently leaked emails from Elon Musk and Tesla’s own posts on social media.

Tesla FSD V12.3 has been very impressive so far, with many users stating that the advanced driver-assist system can now navigate inner city streets like a fairly capable human driver. This does not mean to say that FSD has become a fully hands-free system, of course, but it does suggest that the system has improved to a degree where it can now navigate the intricacies of inner city driving confidently and safely.  ….

While Tesla does seem to be changing its tone somewhat with regard to FSD’s marketing, the company’s focus on supervised FSD — at least for now — does help emphasize just how far ahead Tesla is compared to other automakers also offering advanced driver-assist solutions.  …” Read More   Hmmmm…  Good, this is a beginning of a name change so the words “Fxxx, Syyy Dzzzzz” will not be uttered again by anyone at Tesla, and that the operative word becomes “Supervised xyz.” Now, it is OK if xyz is FSD; however, “supervised” is not only by the driver to remind them that they are responsible if anything bad happens and by Tesla, to ensure that its product is not misused by the driver and the driver behaves while using “Supervised xyz”.    If the driver wishes to not be supervised in their use of Supervised xyz, then that person should, under no circumstances, be permitted to engage/use “Supervised xyz” .   End of story!  Alain

 

Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Special Edition

 I Am AI | NVIDIA GTC 2024 | Official Keynote Intro

J. Huang, March 18, “ Watch NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s GTC keynote to catch all the announcements on AI advances that are shaping our future….” Read More  Hmmmm…  Certainly worth your time to watch the whole 2 hours. The Living Art interactive Large Nature Model: Living Art interactive graphic display at the very beginning is phenomenal. Pictures of us in front of Large Nature Model: one, two.   From the audience in center stage, it had 3-D perception without 3-D glasses.  A reasonable 16 minute Cliff’s Notes version is here, although it misses what I thought was his most interesting comment about the advantages of hardware-supported low precision computing.    Alain & Elizabeth

 

Saturday, March 23, 2024 

  Editor’s note….

Alain Kornhauser & Elizabeth Monroe,  March 23, “Near the top of last week’s issue of SmartDrivingCar.com/12.11-Alex_Roy-3/16/24 we reported on IIHS/HDLI’s Partial automation safeguard ratings with the “ …Read More  Hmmmm… Really good rating system; however, it could be much better if it started by insisting that the car have a really excellent emergency braking system augmented with an unintended acceleration over-ride. Alain …”

 

As will become apparent, we would like to extend that Hmmmm to read: Hmmmm… Really good rating system; however, it could be much better if it started by insisting that the car have a really excellent emergency braking system augmented with an unintended acceleration over-ride as well as an unintended gear-shift.  Alain & Elizabeth

 

Alain L. Kornhauser, *69, *71, P03, P27

Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering

229 – Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
alaink@princeton.edu
609-980-1427
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