Thursday, August 1, 2019
http://SmartDrivingCar.com/7.32-DiDi-Toyota-080119
[log in to unmask]" alt=""> Toyota
invests $600m
in Didi and
signs smart
fleet
management
joint venture
A.
Chantadavong,
July 25,
"Toyota has
invested $600
million in
Chinese
car-hailing
platform Didi
Chuxing as
part of an
expanded
Mobility-as-a-Service
collaboration
agreement the
two companies
have in place
in China.
Under the
deal, Toyota
and Didi will
also enter
into a joint
venture with
GAC Toyota
Motor -- a
joint venture
between Toyota
and China's
GAC Group --
to provide
vehicle-related
services for
Didi's drivers
network.
"Didi is
committed to
helping our
cities achieve
new energy and
smart
transportation
goals with
partners from
home and
abroad," said
Didi senior
vice
president,
Stephen
Zhu...." Read
more Hmmmm.... Interesting... Lyft with Aptiv, Uber
with Volvo and
DiDi with
Toyota. Is
DiDi the only
profitable
one? Alain
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class="">
Smart
Driving Cars
Podcast
Episode 118 -
Michael Sena
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Congress
takes another
stab at
passing
self-driving
car
legislation
A.
Hawkins, July
28, "Just when
everyone had
pretty much
given up hope
of getting
lawmakers in
our
hyper-polarized
nation’s
capital to
agree on a new
set of rules
for
self-driving
cars, Congress
appears to be
ready to try
again.
Stakeholders
in the
autonomous
vehicle
industry had
mostly given
up hope of
getting
anything done
this year, after
the failure of
legislation
last year and
the lack of
action in the
months that
followed. But
a bipartisan
contingent in
both the
Senate and
House have
held five
meetings in
recent weeks
to see if they
can forge a
deal....
It’s
unclear how
necessary any
of this is.
The US
Department of
Transportation
is in the
midst of
regulatory
changes
that would
permit the
sale of
autonomous
vehicles that
don’t meet the
current FMVSS.
Changing these
rules would
pave the way
for companies
like
Alphabet’s
Waymo, Ford,
and General
Motors to
release
hundreds of
thousands of
fully
automated
vehicles on
public roads.
Despite this
new glimmer of
life, the AV
industry has
mostly dialed
down its
efforts in
Washington. According
to Politico,
lobbying on
driverless
cars dropped
35 percent
between the
end of 2018
and the first
quarter of
2019...." Read
more Hmmmm.... The only legislation that is needed for
Self-driving
cars... cars
with a driver
in them who is
expected to
use, at least
some of the
time, the
steering wheel
that is in the
car... is
legislation
forbidding
their use on
public streets
without a
driver behind
the wheel.
That is to be
left for
Driverless
vehicles
without a
steering
wheel.
Ensuring that the safe
Operational
Design Domain
for a
Driverless car
is not
breached can
not be left to
the whims of
an individual
consumer.
That safety
responsibility
needs the
wherewithal of
a responsible
corporate
entity who has
entered into a
legislated "common carrier
obligation"
with the
"municipality"
in which it is
offering safe
driverless
mobility
services to
the traveling
public and/or
the movement
of goods.
Establishing
that win-win
relationship
enables the
Driverless
fleet operator
to create a
viable
business while
the public
enjoys a
valued
service.
Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="191"
height="23">
How
safe do
self-driving
vehicles need
to be?
P.
Bigelow, July
28, "For
self-driving
vehicles,
safety remains
in the eye of
the beholder.
Dozens of
companies are
rolling out
hundreds of
autonomous
cars and
trucks on
public roads
across the
U.S., yet
there are no
clear
standards on
how safe these
vehicles
should be
during testing
or commercial
deployment.
Ten years
after Google
launched its
self-driving
car project,
the question
of "How safe
is safe
enough?"
remains as
essential and
nebulous as
ever.
"There's no
single-bullet
solution or
single
standard,"
said Nat
Beuse, head of
safety at
Uber's
Advanced
Technologies
Group and a
former NHTSA
official who
oversaw
automated-vehicle
development at
the nation's
top auto
safety
regulator.
"There are
many
approaches out
there, and I
think that's a
healthy
thing."
Beuse was
among those
gathered this
month here at
the sixth
annual
Automated
Vehicles
Symposium, a
conference
that brings
together
industry,
government and
academic
leaders
examining
self-driving
technology...."
Read
more Hmmmm....In the end it is all about the trade-off
between perceived
risk &
perceived reward
made by
individuals. I
drive my car
because I
perceive it to
be safe
enough. I
ride the
Newark Airport
people mover
because I
perceive it to
be safe
enough. A long
time ago I
smoked because
I perceived it
to be safe
enough. I
don't use
Facebook
because I
don't perceive
it to be safe
enough.
Analytics are
important but
individual
perceptions
play a
substantial
role. That's
what moakes it
so tough.Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Was
the Automotive
Era a Terrible
Mistake?
N. Heller, July 22, "... For years, I counted this inability to drive as one of many personal failures. More recently, I’ve wondered whether I performed an accidental kindness for the world. I am one of those Darth Vader pedestrians who loudly tailgate couples moving slowly up the sidewalk, and I’m sure that I would be a twit behind the wheel. Perhaps I was protected from a bad move by my own incompetence—one of those mercies which the universe often bestows on the young (who rarely appreciate the gift). In America today, there are more cars than drivers. Yet our investment in these vehicles has yielded dubious returns. Since 1899, more than 3.6 million people have died in traffic accidents in the United States, and more than eighty million have been injured; pedestrian fatalities have risen in the past few years. The road has emerged as the setting for our most violent illustrations of systemic racism, combustion engines have helped create a climate crisis, and the quest for oil has led our soldiers into war.
Every technology has costs, but lately we’ve had reason to question even cars’ putative benefits. Free men and women on the open road have turned out to be such disastrous drivers that carmakers are developing computers to replace them. When the people of the future look back at our century of auto life, will they regard it as a useful stage of forward motion or as a wrong turn? Is it possible that, a hundred years from now, the age of gassing up and driving will be seen as just a cul-de-sac in transportation history, a trip we never should have taken?
mong
the
captivating
books to land
on my desk
recently was
Dan Albert’s “Are We
There Yet?:
The American
Automobile
Past, Present,
and Driverless,”
which notes
that, in the
late
nineteenth
century,
electric cars
and gasoline
cars developed
side by side.
One assumes
that electrics
were only
notionally in
the running at
this stage.
Surprisingly,
Albert
reports, gas
cars were the
B-fleet for
years...."
Read more Hmmmm.... An interesting book review/read;
however, just
read the
books: Dan Albert’s “Are
We There Yet?:
The American
Automobile
Past, Present,
and Driverless,”
and Sam
Schwartz's "No
one at the
Wheel".
Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="128"
height="23"> For
Driverless
Cars, Is the
Way to Our
Hearts Through
Our Stomachs?
J.
Fox, July 31,
"What’s the
best way to
introduce
driverless
cars into
everyday life?
Just add food,
says Jianxiong
Xiao PhD ’13,
CEO of AutoX,
a company
developing a
lower-cost
self-driving
technology and
exploring new
business
models to
spread its
use. To pilot
the
technology,
AutoX has
teamed up with
GrubMarket to
deploy a fleet
of cars in San
Jose,
California, to
provide
grocery and
restaurant
food
delivery—one
of the markets
in which Xiao
says
autonomous
vehicles could
have an
immediate and
substantial
impact.
“The food
delivery
market in the
US is about
$30 billion.
If we can
bring down the
delivery cost
[with
driverless
cars], then
the size of
the food
delivery
market in the
US could go to
about $220
billion,”
explains
Xiao..."
Read more Hmmmm.... Local goods movement is a big market
opportunity,
beyond just
food.
Congratulations
Jianxiong.
Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="110"
height="23">
First
picture of
Tesla’s new
Hardware 3
self-driving
computer in
the wild
Tesla said that the new computer was in all new Model S and Model X since March (start around March 20th) and in all new Model 3 vehicles since April (starting around April 12th).
However, it looks like no one has been willing to open up their car and confirm it until now......" Read more Hmmmm.... Interesting. Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Ford
Acquires
Quantum
Signal: Here’s
How It
Advances
Self-Driving
Vehicle
Development
R.
Visintainer,
July 30,
"Since its
founding in
1999, a small
company in
Saline,
Michigan has
worked on the
cutting edge
of mobile
robotics for
numerous
clients,
including the
military.
Although not
widely known
to the public,
Quantum Signal
helped the
military
develop
software that
allowed it to
remotely
control
robotic
vehicles from
thousands of
miles away. It
even built a
robust
simulation
environment
capable of
testing
autonomous
vehicle
designs that’s
still in use
today.
While Quantum
Signal has
operated in
relative
obscurity over
the past
couple of
decades, its
work has been
on our radar
at Ford for a
while now.
Over the past
few years,
Ford has been
assembling a
team of
uniquely
qualified
experts in
software
development,
simulation and
machine
learning from
all around the
world as it
accelerates
autonomous
vehicle
development —
and we’re
proud to
announce the
squad is
getting even
bigger and
more
formidable...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Ford needs competent people who don't
seem to want
to live in
Silicon
Valley. Great
call here.
Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="33"
height="25">
July
AStuff
Newsletter
aStuff
Staff, July
31, "A new
partnership
between
AutonomouStuff
and the
recently
christened
Center for
Autonomy at
the University
of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign is already bearing fruit for the Grainger College of
Engineering.
Students and
researchers
are developing
an autonomous
software stack
utilizing an
AutonomouStuff
Polaris GEM
Automated
Research
Development
Platform on
long-term loan
as part of the
partnership.
Professor Geir
Dullerud,
director of
the new
center,
recognized the
GEM as a
milestone for
the school and
a harbinger of
further
involvement
between the
university and
AutonomouStuff.... " Read
more
Hmmmm....
Very nice.
Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" width="60"
height="21"> COTA
and Via launch
app-based
on-demand
transit
service in
Columbus subur
A. Frost, July 25, "Called COTA Plus, the new on-demand shared transit network brings dynamic rides to Grove City, a community in the Columbus metropolitan area that is experiencing rapid growth and increased need for connections to COTA’s existing fixed-transit system. Using Via’s COTA Plus app, riders are able to hail a shuttle directly from their smartphone. Via’s advanced algorithms will enable multiple riders to seamlessly share the vehicle. The powerful technology will direct passengers to a nearby ‘virtual bus stop’ within a short walking distance for pick up and drop off, allowing for quick and efficient shared trips without lengthy detours, or inconvenient fixed routes and schedules...." Read more Hmmmm.... Excellent. Sounds so much better than conventional scheduled buses both on quality of service and cost per ride served. Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="55"
height="32">
Gatik
begins using
robot vans to
haul goods
between
Walmarts in
Arkansas
K.
Wiggers, July
25, "Retail
giant Walmart
today revealed
that it has
launched a
pilot with
Gatik — a
two-year-old
startup
developing an
autonomous
vehicle stack
for B2B
short-haul
logistics — to
ferry customer
orders between
select store
locations in
Bentonville,
Arkansas. The
announcement
comes months
after the
Arkansas
legislature
approved a
Walmart-backed
proposal
allowing
companies to
test
self-driving
vehicles on
public roads
and highways.
The
collaboration
marks the
latest in a
series of
driverless
delivery
efforts kicked
off by Walmart
in recent
years. In
January, the
company worked
with Udelv to
pilot
autonomous
deliveries in
select stores,
and in
November
Walmart teamed
up with Ford
and Postmates
to test
self-driving
grocery
delivery in
the Miami
area. More
recently, it
partnered with
Waymo to
provide
customers with
rides to and
from stores to
pick up online
orders.
“We’re always
out to help
our customers,
and that means
helping them
save time and
money,” wrote
Walmart senior
vice president
of digital
operations Tom
Ward. “So
we’re using
our position
of strength to
reinvent the
shopping
experience to
take us, and
busy families,
well into the
future.”..." Read
more Hmmmm.... It is a start. At some point for some
geographies at
some times
(say middle of
the night),
they may well
begin to send
these trucks
out without a
driver or
attendant.
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="78"
height="23"> Drivers
Dangerously
Losing Their
Minds On How
To Handle
`Smart' Cars
L.
Elliot, July
31,
"...Presumably,
when you buy a
car, you’ll
have to spend
the needed
time to learn
about the
advanced ADAS,
though we’ll
have to wait
and see
whether people
will really do
so, whereas
they might
just “wing it”
and try out
the features
as they begin
driving the
car around
town. The same
notion applies
to renting a
car, namely
that maybe the
rental agency
will offer to
show you the
advanced ADAS,
but you might
be rushed and
won’t spend
the time to
learn it, or
you might
assume that
all ADAS are
the same and
thus skip the
added
training.
We also don’t
yet really
know how
people will
deal with the
proactive ADAS
driving
aspects and
whether they
might fight
with the
automation in
moments of
dire straits.
If you don’t
have a proper
... why the
car is trying
to turn you
away from your
desired
driving
action, you
might not
acquiesce and
instead fight
to make the
turn as you
see fit.
If you ever
wondered why
some of the
automakers and
tech firms are
focusing more
so on Level 4
and Level 5,
which involves
fully
autonomous
cars that have
no human
driving and no
co-shared
driving
involved, you
now know why.
Some believe
that there
should be just
one driver of
a car, either
a human driver
as unaided by
a co-driving
piece of
automation, or
an AI-run
driving
system. When
you try to put
two drivers
into the same
driving seat,
it is bound to
create
troubles...."
Read
more
Hmmmm.... It
is an issue.
Alain
Half-baked stuff that probably doesn't deserve your time
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="50"
height="39"> How
Jaywalking
Could Jam Up
the Era of
Self-Driving
Cars
E.
Taub, Aug 1,
"magine
Manhattan
without
jaywalking.
Or Los Angeles
freeways
without
speeding, or
Moscow without
grinding
traffic. If
self-driving
cars are going
to move
forward, these
are among the
many
possibilities
that the
people
dreaming up
the future of
cities will
have to
consider.
In New York,
the unwritten
rule is plain:
Cross the
street
whenever and
wherever, just
don’t get hit.
It’s a
practice that
separates New
Yorkers from
tourists, who
innocently
wait at the
corner for the
walk symbol.
But if
pedestrians
know they’ll
never be run
over,
jaywalking
could explode,
grinding
traffic to a
halt.
One solution,
suggested by
an automotive
industry
official, is
gates at each
corner, which
would
periodically
open to allow
pedestrians to
cross... " Read more Hmmmm.... Half good (society is the
challenge) ,
half bad
(Manhattan is
not the place
for any of
this. It has
a subway, else
it is
walkable.).
Alain
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
width="160"
height="20"> 'Why
not fly over
it?’ Uber
picks New
Jersey firms
in ambitious
bid to beat
traffic
congestion
E.
llie Rushing,
July Two local
companies are
in the
vanguard of
building
Uber’s latest
venture of
dominating
cities’ skies
through air
taxis, a
project called
Uber Elevate.
Jaunt Air
Mobility, an
aerospace
vehicle
start-up in
Pennsauken,
and Price
Systems, a
cost
estimation
company in
Mount Laurel,
are working
with Uber to
design, build,
and estimate
the cost of
making
modern-looking
electronic
helicopters
the future of
urban
transportation.24,
" “As urban
congestion
continues to
rise, so do
the costs
associated
with it,
including
commuter time
and costs for
goods and
services,”
said Kaydon
Stanzione,
chief
executive of
Jaunt Air
Mobility.
..." Read
more
Hmmmm....
Relieving
congested
cities.
Perfect place
for these
things to run
into each
other. At
least New
Jersey is
working on
something.
Can investors
keep Uber
afloat long
enough to have
these things
kink it? I'm
not a
believer.
Alain
C'mon Man! (These folks didn't get/read the memo)
Simply ClickBait
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Cyberphysical
risks of
hacked
internet-connected
vehicles
S. Vivek,,
July 30, "The
integration of
automotive
technology
with internet
connectivity
promises to
both
dramatically
improve
transportation
while
simultaneously
introducing
the potential
for new
unknown risks.
... We
develop an
analytic
percolation-based
model to
rapidly assess
road
conditions
given the
density of
disabled
vehicles and
apply it to
study the
street network
of Manhattan"
Read
more
Hmmmm... Combining hackers, cyberphysical systems, unknown
risks and and
Manhattan into
a paper is a
sure way to
maximize
clicks.
Manhattan is
already in
gridlock
without
hackers or
connected
vehicles.
When is
Cybersecurity
going to stop
playing the
"unknown risk"
card to put
their issues
into the
proper
perspective?
Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="50"
height="39"> And
Now, a Bicycle
Built for None
C.
Metz, July 31,
"As corporate
giants like
Ford, G.M. and
Waymo struggle
to get their
self-driving
cars on the
road, a team
of researchers
in China is
rethinking
autonomous
transportation
using a
souped-up
bicycle.
This bike can
roll over a
bump on its
own, staying
perfectly
upright. When
the man
walking just
behind it says
“left,” it
turns left,
angling back
in the
direction it
came. It also
has eyes: It
can follow
someone
jogging
several yards
ahead, turning
each time the
person turns.
And if it
encounters an
obstacle, it
can swerve to
the side,
keeping its
balance and
continuing its
pursuit...
The short video did not show the limitations of the bicycle (which presumably tips over occasionally), and even the researchers who built the bike admitted in an email to The Times that the skills on display could be duplicated with existing computer hardware. ..." Read more Hmmmm... Certainly not new news. Anthony Levandowski did this and 14 years ago for the 2005 DARPA Challenge. Moreover, it doesn't take much intelligence, artificial or otherwise to have something react to simple commands. My thermostat does that. ClickBait! Alain
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
[log in to unmask]"
alt="imap:[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.5&filename=lmjdiniodjkflpia.png"
class=""
width="46"
height="52"
border="0">
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">
Recent PodCasts
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 117
F. Fishkin, July 27, "GM's Cruise taps brakes on plans for autonomous taxi service. So what's next? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser digs in along with co-host Fred Fishkin in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Also: Daimler and Bosch partnering for autonomous parking, Navya, Uber, Lyft and State Farm says drivers defeating the benefits new safety tech. Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 116 - Jerome
Lutin
F. Fishkin, July 20, "Can technology dramatically improve the safety of bus transportation for pedestrians, riders and drivers? The lead investigator in a national study, Jerry Lutin, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on episode 116 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Plus...Tesla's new safety report, the latest from Lyft, Aptiv and a NY Times report on why driverless cars are taking longer than expected. Tune in and subscribe!."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 115
F. Fishkin, July 5, "VW invests billions partnering with Ford in autonomous startup Argo AI. Just one of many new alliances. That plus employing new safety tech for buses, the latest from VIA, Uber, Tesla and a farewell to Ross Perot on this edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 113
F. Fishkin, June 21, "With new European and Japanese car maker alliances, is Waymo throwing in the towel on driverless transportation? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser wonders out loud. That and more on Lexus, Local Motors and others with co-host Fred Fishkin on the Smart Driving Cars podcast. "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J.
Hardiman NJM
F. Fishkin, June 9, "Should the insurance industry be pushing more safety and autonomous tech in cars? It's a win, win says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser. Joining him in the discussion along with co-host Fred Fishkin is NJM's John Hardiman, a board member of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Also...Fiat Chrysler, Ford and more."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance
Elliot
F. Fishkin, May 25, " The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus...Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd
Summit Wrapup
F. Fishkin, May 18, "Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It's just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit
Leilei
Shinohara
& Staff
Sergeant
Terence
McDonnell
F.
Fishkin, May
18,
"In
this special
edition from
the 3rd Annual
Princeton
Smart Driving
Cars Summit,
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin are
joined by
RoboSense VP
Leilei
Shinohara on
the LiDAR's
benefits. And
view of
autonomous
technology
from law
enforcement
with New York
State Police Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit
David Kidd
& Cecillia
Feeley
F.
Fishkin, May
18,
"From the 3rd
Annual
Princeton
Smart Driving
Car Summit,
David Kidd
from the
Highway Loss
Data Institute
joins Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin and
then on site
preliminary
research
results on
mobility for
all with
Cecilia Feeley
and Andrea
Lubin from
Rutgers."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit
Anil Lewis
&
Katherine
Freund
F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 100 - Andrei
Greenawalt'99/Via
April 5, F. Fishkin, "The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 98- Matt Daus
April 5, F. Fishkin, "Here comes congestion pricing in New York City...but what will it mean? Former city Taxi and Limousine Commission head and transportation expert Matthew Daus joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Also...Tesla, VW and even Brexit! All on Episode 98 of Smart Driving Cars."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael
Sena'69
March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."
Smart
Driving Cars
Podcast
Episode 82 - Intel,
Sciarappo
& Jitsik,
Loeb
F. Fishkin,
Jan.
9, "One of
the top chip
makers in the
world and a
start up.
Intel's
strategic
marketing
director for
autonomous
driving Jill
Sciarappo and
the founder of
Jitsik, Dr.
Helen Loeb
join co-hosts
Alain
Kornhauser of
Princeton
University and
Fred Fishkin
for Episode 82
of the Smart
Driving Cars
podcast from
CES."
Smart
Driving Cars
Podcast
Episode 81 - nVIDIA,
Shapiro &
Local Motors
/ Olli, Hodge
F. Fishkin,
Jan.
9, "How
NVIDIA is
paving the way
for self
driving cars
and a new OLLI
automated
transport from
Local Motors.
NVIDIA's
Senior
Director for
Automotive,
Danny Shapiro
and Kurtis
Hodge of Local
Motors join
co-hosts Alain
Kornhauser of
Princeton
University and
Fred Fishkin
for another
edition of
Smart Driving
Cars from CES
2019.."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 75 - PAVE; Nantel, Erlich, Riccobono
F. Fishkin, Jan. 9, "From CES in Las Vegas, a new industry organization, PAVE, is formed. Partners for Automated Vehicle Education. And some founding members join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for an on site discussion. Guests include National Safety Council VP Kelly Nantel, Voyage VP Justin Erlich and National Federation of the Blind President Mark Riccobono."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55
F. Fishkin, Dec. 13, "When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says "Not so fast." The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!"Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui
F. Fishkin, Nov 29, "What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! "Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 68 - Dick Mudge
F. Fishkin, Nov 22, "The insurance industry hears about the outlook for automated vehicles. Co-author Dick Mudge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 68 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Uber, GM Cruise, Waymo, VW and more. Tune in and subscribe!"Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 66 - Bishop & Zimmerman
F. Fishkin, Nov 8, "Daimler is partnering with Bosch to bring an autonomous ride hailing service to San Jose next year. In this edition, the Director of Engineering at Bosch joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to outline how it will work. Plus Richard Bishop joins us fresh from an International Task Force on Vehicle Highway Automation in Denmark. And more!"Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV
F. Fishkin, Nov 1, "California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state's deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!"Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code, Motorcycles
F. Fishkin, Sept 22 "In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety...and a champion racer. Beyond that....he's an old high school friend of Alain's! And there's more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!"Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
Recent Highlights of:
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="129"
height="76"
border="0">
Saturday, July 27, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Cruise
postpones plan
to launch
driverless
taxi service
in 2019
A. Hawkins,
July 24,
"Cruise will
miss its goal
of launching a
large-scale
self-driving
taxi service
in 2019, the
GM
subsidiary’s
CEO Dan Ammann
said in an
interview
Tuesday. The
company plans
to
dramatically
increase the
number of its
autonomous
test vehicles
on the road in
San Francisco,
but will not
be offering
rides to
regular people
this year.
Previously, GM
executives
told investors
that its
autonomous
ride-hailing
service would
be open to the
public by the
end of this
year. Now it
seems as if
Cruise is
moving away
from deadlines
and launch
dates
altogether.
Ammann, GM’s
former
president who
now leads its
autonomous
vehicle unit
in San
Francisco,
wouldn’t even
commit to
launching the
service next
year, in
2020....
Cruise is still waiting for the federal government to accept or reject its request to deploy a fleet of fully driverless Chevy Bolt vehicles without steering wheels or pedals. The request was in limbo until this past March, when the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said it would solicit public comments and conduct a review. That process concluded in May, and now Cruise is waiting for a final verdict. “We’re in dialogue with them,” Ammann said of NHTSA. “And nothing further to comment on at this point.”...
It will
also host
community
events to
answer
questions from
residents of
San Francisco
who, in some
respects, are
the company’s
unwitting test
subjects in
its public
self-driving
experiments...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Starting in the Blue Chip cities trying
to serve those
that already
have lots of
mobility
options is
turning out to
be a
fundamentally
flawed
approach.
Wouldn't it be better to start providing mobility to those in areas that aren't currently well served by existing mobility options... cars and transit. Find such places like Central Jersey, Chandler AZ, South Carolina, The Villages and Peoria be precursors to the MountainViews, Washington DCs, Miamis, SFs and LAs. Start there where the need exists and real benefits can be delivered. See also Timothy Lee's take on this. Alain
Sunday, July 21, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="113"
height="21">
Tesla
Vehicle Safety
Report
Tesla,
July 16, "At
Tesla, we
believe that
technology can
help improve
safety. That’s
why Tesla
vehicles are
engineered to
be the safest
cars in the
world. We
believe the
unique
combination of
passive
safety, active
safety, and
automated
driver
assistance is
crucial for
keeping not
just Tesla
drivers and
passengers
safe, but all
drivers on the
road. It’s
this notion
that grounds
every decision
we make – from
the design of
our cars, to
the software
we introduce,
to the
features we
offer every
Tesla owner.
Model S, X and
3 have
achieved the
lowest
probability of
injury of any
vehicle ever
tested by the
U.S.
government’s
New Car
Assessment
Program.
... In the 2nd quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.27 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.19 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.41 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 498,000 miles.... " Read more Hmmmm.... This summary uses "accident" for Teslas and "crash" for NHTSA. This may suggest that the Tesla and NHTSA are not comp[arable... Tesla is reporting about apples and NHTSA is referring to "oranges". That notes; however, it does seem that for Teslas with and without AutoPilot and the other active safety features, there is consistency in the measure. A more detailed question arises about the equivalence of the driving domain for each category as well as who is at fault in each of these situations. Even in light of these issues and details, the large variation in the rates: 3.27 v 2.18 v 1.41 is very significant among Teslas. Seems as if AutoPilot and Tesla's other active collision avoidance safety features are improving safety of Teslas. The spread from the 0.5 value for NHTSA is really astonishing making Teslas much safer than the average of all other cars. Unfortunately these numbers only scratch the surface and beg for more details. In the past I have called for an independent evaluation of the Tesla crash statistics and I do that again there today. I'll offer to do it. Tesla should encourage someone to do it. As it stands today, not enough people believe or trust Tesla (see below) Tesla. That's unfortunate because improved safety is THE major objective of SmartDrivingCar technology. Alain
Sunday, July 14, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Ford-VW
alliance
expands to
include
autonomous and
electric
vehicles
A. Hawkins,
July 12, "In a
widely
anticipated
move, Ford and
Volkswagen
announced
Friday their
plan to expand
their
seven-month-old
alliance to
include
autonomous and
electric
vehicles.
As part of the
deal, VW will
invest a
whopping $2.6
billion in
Argo AI, the
autonomous
vehicle
startup based
in Pittsburgh
that
practically no
one had heard
of until
Ford’s own
eye-popping $1
billion
investment in
2017. VW
will invest $1
billion in
cash, as well
as $1.6
billion in
assets that
include the
auto giant’s Munich-based
Autonomous
Intelligent
Driving team,
which will be
absorbed by
Argo. After
the deal goes
through,
Argo’s
post-money
valuation will
be over $7
billion....
The deal also gives Argo a global reach. The company, which was founded by former Uber engineers with ties to Carnegie Melon University’s famed robotics lab, has been testing its cars with Ford’s backing in Pittsburgh, Detroit, Miami, and Washington, DC. Now it can also deploy its vehicles on European roads under VW’s guidance....
A month ago VW severed a partnership with Aurora Innovation, the autonomy startup founded by former Google self-driving head Chris Urmson. Argo was co-founded by Bryan Salesky, another former member of the Google self-driving team. He was also on the same team as Urmson in the 2007 DARPA autonomous vehicle challenge, which is seen as a watershed moment in the pursuit for self-driving cars. Ford dumped $1 billion into Argo in 2017 and has worked closely with the startup ever since....
Companies have been pairing up to work on self-driving cars for years now, but only recently has that relentless coupling taken on more serious overtones. Over the last few months:Apple acquired the startup Drive.ai (buying the beleaguered company literally as it was shutting down);
Honda has partnered with General Motors’ Cruise unit;
Volvo and Uber just unveiled their first jointly-developed autonomous SUV after three years of working together;
Waymo is teaming up with Renault-Nissan to bring the Alphabet unit’s self-driving minivans and trucks to Japan and France;
Fiat-Chrysler and Hyundai, along with Amazon, are both partners with self-driving startup Aurora."
Read more Hmmmm... That pretty much rounds up the serious deep pocket alliances: Waymo+, GM/Cruise+, Ford/Argo+, Uber/Volvo, Lyft/Active, Hyundai/Yandex and Aurora+ with SoftBank influencing in the wings. That leaves Zoox, Toyota, Daimler, BMW looking for dance partners???? Tesla doesn't seem to need one. (Would Elon sell to Toyota??). Alain
Friday, June 28, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="72"
height="21"> Apple
acquires
self-driving
startup
Drive.ai
I. Fried,
June 25,
"Apple bought
Drive.ai, an
autonomous
driving
startup once
valued at $200
million, and
has hired
dozens of
Drive.ai
engineers,
Apple
confirmed to
Axios on
Tuesday.
Why it
matters:
The deal and
hires confirm
that Apple
hasn't given
up its
autonomous
driving
project.
Details:
The deal comes
after Drive.ai
talked with
multiple
potential
acquirers, but
in the end
Apple won out.
Apple also
purchased
Drive.ai's
autonomous
cars and other
assets,
sources tell
Axios.
Drive.ai
ceased
operations
within the
last 2 weeks.
Apple’s hires
are mostly in
engineering
and product
design, per a
source.
The purchase
price was not
disclosed.
Apple was
expected to
pay less than
the $77
million
Drive.ai
raised in
venture
capital, to
say nothing of
the $200
million it was
valued at two
years ago,
after its
Series B
round, Axios'
Dan Primack
reported
recently.
The backdrop:
Drive.ai's
highlighter-orange
vans ferried
workers around
a business
park in
Frisco, Tex.,
and shuttled
fans in nearby
Arlington to
Cowboys games.
Drive.ai is
laying off 90
workers in
California,
the San
Francisco
Chronicle
reported. And
the company
employed many
more in
Texas."
Read more Hmmmm... Looks like a fire sale. Does this mean that getting to "80% of Driverless" is valued at less than $100m? Ouch! It is going to take deep pockets to get to "99.99% Driverless". Alain
Friday, June 21, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Lexus
Moves One Step
Closer to a
World Without
Crashes (Lexus
may have
pulled the
press
release???)
Press
Release, June
19,
"...Collisions
that result in
injury can
often be
caused by a
delay in a
driver’s
recognition of
the situation
and his or her
ability to
react
accordingly.
In a move to
help prevent
such accidents
before they
happen, the
Lexus Safety
System+ will
be a standard
feature in all
US Lexus
vehicles
starting with
the 2020 model
year. “We are
working toward
preventing
crashes before
they happen,”
said David
Christ, group
vice president
and general
manager, Lexus
Division.“
That's why we
have developed
some of the
most advanced
safety
features on
the road
today, and now
those systems
will be
standard
equipment on
every model we
sell. ..Nice!...
Designed to
help protect
drivers,
passengers and
pedestrians,
the Lexus
Safety System+
is an
integrated
suite of four
advanced
active safety
packages
anchored by
automated
pre-collision
warning and
braking. They
include:
- Pre-Collison System with Pedestrian Detection
This system is engineered to help detect a preceding vehicle or a pedestrian ... why not also a stationary fire truck, or a car stopped at a controlled intersection, or a brick wall, or...??? NotGoodEnough!... Below see Advanced Driver Assistance Systems: The ADAS Road to AV Reality - #SmartDrivingCar... in front of the Lexus under certain conditions . Should the system detect a pedestrian or a potential frontal collision, it’s designed to activate an audible and visual alert while automatically preparing Brake Assist for increased braking response... why not also begin immediately to brake and slow down ? (Hint..."not sure" is not the right answer.) If the situation is sufficient for you to alert the driver why isn't it good enough to immediately start to reduce the speed of the car. Worse case is that you added a couple of seconds to the trip. The driver can always override the brakes by pushing harder on the gas pedal if the driver insists on tailgating or is committing suicide or ???. NotGoodEnough!.... If the driver does not brake in time,... are you kidding?? You knew a crash was impending, and you waited until it was too late??? NotGoodEnough!... the system is designed to automatically begin braking before impact... and then you'll slam on the brakes??? NotGoodEnough!... and, in some cases... Not most/many cases; just some cases??? NotGoodEnough!..., can even bring the vehicle to a stop
- Lane
Departure
Alert ...OK, but not Lane Centering...
- Intelligent High Beams ... Great...
- Dynamic Radar Cruise Control
This system
uses radar and
camera
technology to
help maintain
a preset speed
and following
distance from
the vehicle
ahead. If
driving at
highway speeds
and the road
ahead clears,
the vehicle
returns to its
preset speed.
.... Great, but a couple of questions... 1. If the
system is on
and I tap the
brakes, does
the system
turn off just
the
acceleration
function
because it
understands
that I tapped
the brakes
because I felt
that I was
going too fast
so the system
should not
override my
explicit
signal.
Nice!!
However, does
it also assume
that I really
know what I'm
doing?
Consequently,
it also turns
off the brake
function even
in situations
in which I am
not applying
enough brake
forces and a
crash is
imminent?
Does it again
wait until it
is too late
and and refuse
to help me in
those critical
moments? Then
you'll slam on
the
NotGoodEnough!
(Note... my S
Anti-lock
Braking ystem
explicitly
overrides the
way that I'm
applying the
brakes and
keeps me from
doing the
wrong thing.
Thank you
ABS! What
makes the AEB
situation
different when
the system
knows better
and could
really help me
in an as
critical
situation?
2. What happens if the system is on and I'm following a car at my preset distance going 10 mph under my desired speed. The car ahead changes lanes because she sees that a parked fire truck is in our lane ahead. Once her car clears my lane ahead, does the Dynamic Radar Cruise Control system take into account the existence of the parked firetruck ahead and brings me to a smooth stop before hitting the Firetruck? Or, does the system begin to accelerate to my desired speed and simply leave it to the Pre-Collison System with Pedestrian Detection system to try to "save the day" after it is too late?........"
Read more Hmmmm... Again, very nice that these features will be standard. It is really unfortunate that they are not better. Hopefully, since the limitations that I expressed above are all software related, Lexus will be able to do over-the-air (or otherwise) updates of the software as soon as Lexus has put more effort into the "intelligence" that uses the data streams generated by their cameras and radars AlainFriday, June 14, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Hyundai
self-driving
deal points to
industry-wide
pattern
T. Lee,
June 13, "It
has been a
busy week for
Aurora, the
self-driving
startup
founded by
veterans of
the Google,
Tesla, and
Uber
self-driving
programs. On
Monday, Aurora
announced it
had forged a
partnership
with Fiat
Chrysler. On
Tuesday,
Aurora said it
was ending its
partnership
with
Volkswagen.
Now Hyundai is
deepening its
partnership
with Aurora
with an equity
investment.
It's the
latest example
of an
industry-wide
pattern: one
after another,
car companies
have made big
investments in
self-driving
startups. And
these deals
mean that
carmakers are
effectively
entering into
self-driving
alliances with
one
another....
All of the
recent deals
between car
companies and
self-driving
companies
could put
Waymo in a
difficult
position.
Waymo has been
working on
self-driving
technology
much longer
than any of
its rivals,
and the
company aimed
to introduce a
driverless
taxi service
long before
others came to
market. In
that scenario,
Waymo would
have its
choice of
automotive
partners, so
Waymo has been
keeping its
options open.
But the
reality is
that Waymo
will need help
from
automakers to
scale up
rapidly. As
more and more
automakers
commit to
Waymo's
rivals, Waymo
risks becoming
stranded—with
industry-leading sensors and software but limited capacity to integrate
the technology
into a large
number of
vehicles...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Good summary of "self-driving car"
partnerships
but, by
including
Waymo in the
mix, it is
conflating
what I
continue to
contend are
two VERY
different
markets...
Self-driving
and
Driverless.
What makes
them like oil
& vinegar
is that
self-driving
vehicles are
for the
Consumer
market and are
little
different from
conventional
cars.
Driverless
cars are for
the
Fleet/Business
market.
Self-driving
cars require a
driver in
order to
deliver any
meaningful
mobility or
value. Their
automation
stack delivers
additional
comfort,
convenience
and safety to
the auto
industry's
existing
customer
base. As such
it is a
"consumer
play" and
requires no
regulations or
public
oversight
other than
what exists
today. Any
safety issues
can be handled
through
standard
"product
liability" and
standard "NHTSA
recall"
procedures.
Its market
penetration
evolution is
like going
from manual
transmission
to automatic
transmission,
as Tesla is
demonstrating
with
AutoPilot.
From outside
the car, one
can't tell if
it has it or
doesn't. It
is a consumer
choice at time
of purchase.
Tesla
is creating
its own
"automatic
transmission"/"AutoPilot
stack". Other
OEMs are
hedging their
bets by
partnering
with
technology
provider for
their
self-driving
technology
stack. They'll
continue to
produce the
rest of the
car, as they
have done for
years, and
possibly
outsource
their "automatic transmission"
when the time
comes.
Driverless
cars are
"mobility
machines" when
managed as a
fleet
delivering
mobility to
individuals.
They are a
"business
play". It is
all about the
economic
efficiency/profitability
in delivering
mobility to
individuals.
The
fundamental
value is in
the
opportunity to
provide
consistent
reliable
affordable
mobility at
scale. The
technology
stack has
taken the
inconsistency,
unreliability
and monetary
cost of a
human driver
out of the
loop. Since
algorithms,
rather than
people, tailor
the service to
meet
individual
needs, such
systems scale
attractively.
All of this
MUST be done
safely without
a
driver/attendant,
else the
economics/affordability/scalability
completely
collapses.
From
outside the
car one can
tell that
there isn't a
driver in the
driver's
seat.
Consequently,
public
oversight at
all levels
from top to
grass roots
will need to
be comfortable
with this
thing with no
driver in it
going down
their street
and invading
their
neighborhood
and
transporting
their kids,
grandmas,
mobility
disadvantaged,
... .
Everyone is
going to
weigh-in with
perceptions
and
regulations.
Consequently,
the deployment
of the
technology is
going to need
to be
"welcomed" .
"Uber-like
swashbuckling
bravado isn't
going to cut
is.
Driverless
Mobility-as-a-Service is the market that Waymo (and GM/Cruise and
Ford/Argo)
have been
going after.
Because of its
need to be
"welcomed" (or
at least not
disdained) by
the residents
and businesses
that abut the
streets over
which these
vehicles
deliver their
mobility, the
deployment
dynamics for
Driverless is
very different
from
Self-driving.
All
Self-driving
needs is for
Madison Avenue
/ "Elon Musk"
to convince
individuals of
the comfort
and
convenience of
being able to
have the car
drive itself
some of the
time and they
are sold.
Driverless
requires
substantial
public
relations/education
of communities
to achieve
"welcoming".
A real "ground
war".
That is what
Waymo (and
GM/Cruise and
Ford/Argo)
needs to
conduct to
just get
started. Once
started Waymo
need to
continue it to
scale (Value
is achieved
only with
scale).
Finding
OEMs that will
sell Waymo
cars on which
to affix its
technology
stack will not
be the
problem. The
car is the
commodity. The
welcoming of
the technology
stack by
communities is
the
fundamental
differentiator.
Waymo is
sitting on an
order for at
least 82,000
cars from FCA
and Jaguar.
The order has
been
announced, but
not executed
because
insufficient
"ground
warfare" has
even been
waged, let
alone been
successful
(except in
Arizona).
With welcoming
environment
these 82,000
mobility
machines could
be serving 4
million person
trips per day
in communities
throughout the
country.
(Note... our
nation's
transit
systems today
(only) serve
an equivalent
number of
person trips;
although they
are longer
trips taken in
much more
densely
populated
areas. The
Waymo-served
trips would
likely be
trips that our
conventional
transit
systems can't
effectively
serve and thus
complement
conventional
transit. Some
of the trips
would replace
auto trips.
The others
would be new
trips by
persons who
can't or don't
want to drive
their own car
for whatever
reason and
whose lives
have been
substantially
disadvantaged
because their
mobility needs
aren't
effectively
served by
either the
personal car
or
conventional
mass transit.
Saturday, June 8, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="50"
height="39">
What
Truck Drivers
Think About
Autonomous
Trucking
W. MacNaughton, June 1, "We've all heard about the advent of Autonomous Trucking - but mostly from people who work in the tech industry. So this week, I've been visiting (and sleeping, eating and showering in) truck stops in Nevada, Utah and Idaho to hear what truck drivers themselves have to say about the future of the profession. ..." Read more Hmmmm... This is excellent. One thing that was missed... If done appropriately, (operative word here is appropriately, not really what has been done so far...) ... ""autonomy" could help me drive much more safely and really help me if it focused on reducing the stress or anxiety that driving causes me. It would really be nice if I could relax and think about something else at least some of the time when I drive. Much of driving is very simple... but very boring. Please help me do my job more safely. I'll then be fresh and really be able to handle the tough hard stuff. Do for me what automation does for pilots. I'm just as important." Alain
Saturday, June 1, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="50"
height="39">
Uber’s
First Earnings
Report After
I.P.O.: $1
Billion Loss
K. Conger,
May 30,
"Uber’s start
as a publicly
traded company
has gone from
bumpy to
bumpier. In
its first
earnings
report since
listing its
shares on the
stock market
this month,
the
ride-hailing
giant on
Thursday
reported its
slowest growth
in years and
steep losses
for the first
three months
of 2019..." Read
more Hmmmm... In its most basic form, the ride hailing
business has
revenue ($r)
and costs ($c)
proportional
to number of
rides (R).
Let $r = A*R
and $c = B*R.
So
Profitability
(P) { P = ($r
-$c) = (A - B)
* R } is all
about (A - B)
. We know
that at
today's
ridership,
R(now),
(A(now)
-B(now)) is
negative. We
also know that
as ridership
increases, new
drivers will
need to be
paid more (B
gets bigger),
simply because
the demand for
driver
services goes
up. We also
know that to
attract more
riders,
revenue per
ride will
necessarily go
down (A gets
smaller).
Yikes...
Ride-hailing
faces a double
whammy... as
it scales
(gets more
people to
ride) it loses
even more from
the average
rider than it
does today
plus that
bigger
negative
number gets
multiplied by
a bigger
number of
rides.
When
each unit
incurs a
loss, making
up losses by
increasing
volume is
known to not
be a viable
approach.
Increasing
volume when
unit losses
increase with
increasing
volume is really
not viable!
The only road to profitability, other than a major pivot, is to be more discriminating in who you serve... Serve fewer riders. Unfortunately, when you finally get Ridership small enough so that A-B is positive, that number gets multiplied by a smaller number of riders such that the gross amount is nowhere near sufficient to justify valuations greater than that of a lemonade stand. Uber serves about 1B trips per quarter, which means today, they loses $1/ride. To be worth $40B they need to make $1 on each of the 4B trips they serve per year. How Uber gets from a history of losing $1/ride to making $1/ride @ 4B rides/year is an open question. As is making $10/ride @ 400M rides/year? As is making $0.10/ride @ 40B rides per year? Alain
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="133"
height="21">
June
2019 Issue
M. Sena, May
22," In This
Issue:Dispatch Central
Toyota backs off IEEE WAVE in U.S. ... More details on Toyota's evolving position on V2X communication standards....
Uber: A Fool’s Gold ... Yup!
FCA and Tesla: Strange bedfellows . ... I did not know that!...
Tesla’s fifteen minutes of European fame. ... March Model 3 sales in EU of 15k. If April is greater than 5k, fame may have legs....
A Road Trip Down Memory Lane ... Read with a smile....
A Dispatcher’s Musings: Here’s looking at you, kid ... Everything has a downside. I like to tell my students that one of the things that the human brain does very well if "forget". "Optimal Learning" needs some "Optimal Forgetting" where the objective function is Personal Privacy. Sure, observe all you want to give me short-term convenience/pleasure, but erase all the data before anyone can use it to hurt me, where both the convenience/pleasure and the hurt are from my perspective, not yours!!
Saturday, May 25, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="47"
height="27">
Speed
cameras are
coming to
Philadelphia's
deadliest road
P.
Loeb, May 16,
"...Sponsor
Cherelle
Parker says
the cameras
will
photograph any
car going more
than 11 miles
per hour over
the speed limit..."
Read
more Hmmmm... I really don't understand. What is the
meaning of the
word limit
? (Hint.... "the utmost extent")
So for humans a "speed" limit is actually a "Speed
+10" limit.
That mean I
can set my
Cruise Control
to "Speed
Limit" +10 and
I'll be just
fine. Does
that also mean
that I can
code my
driverless car
"to do +10"???
If not, then
why does a
person capable
of getting a
driver's
license get to
go faster than
a person who
can't get a
driver's
license who is
relegated to
be driven by
an
autonomousTaxi
(aTaxi) that
is mandated to
drive at a
slower
speed????
(Please don't
tell me it is
because the
accuracy of
the speed
sensor is not
precise (aka
reliable
enough). May
I use that
excuse in my
aTaxi code?)
This is a
serious
question!
There needs to
be a level
regulatory
(rules of the
road/traffic
laws) playing
field
established
for aTaxis and
human drivers.
This is NOT
easy (but it
could be as
simple as:
SpeedLimit(aTaxi) = SpeedLimit (Humans) + 10
StopSign(aTaxi) = SropSign(Humans) +RollOnThrough if
no one is
around
RedLight(aTaxi) = Redlight(Humans) + 3 more cars after the yellow, except in Boston where 5 more car after the yellow... Alain
Saturday, May 18, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="126"
height="36">
Making
Smart Vehicles
to Improve the
Human
Condition
K. Pyle, May
17, "3.5
million and 5+
million deaths
per year are a
couple of the
statistics
that stood out
from the 2+
day, 3rd
annual
SmartDrivingCars
Summit at
Princeton.
There are
approximately
3.5 million
individuals in
the United
States who
never leave
their homes
and
approximately
1.9M of those
people have
disabilities,
according to
Robbie
Diamond,
President
& CEO of
SAFE. He went
on to say
that,
“Transportation
is the biggest
predictor of
inter-generational
upward
mobility.”His comments echoed the conference theme of improving mobility for all people, especially the mobility marginalized, to paraphrase Professor Alain Kornhauser. Kornhauser brought together participants from multiple disciplines and backgrounds to an event that is like no other. This year, he introduced a research element where there were a couple different opportunities to gauge the reactions of everyday people of varying abilities to various levels of autonomous vehicles...." Read more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for such an excellent summary and all of the help. Alain
Sunday, May 12, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="197"
height="16"> Self-driving
car company
Cruise raises
$1.15bn
Sunday, May 5, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="140"
height="17">
VW
Inclusive
Mobility aims
to make sure
tech takes
care of
everyone
A. Krok,
May 2, "You
can't please
all the people
all the time,
but Volkswagen
wants to make
sure that when
it moves into
the next era
of mobility,
it won't leave
any groups
behind.
Volkswagen
this week
unveiled its Inclusive Mobility Initiative,
which sees the
automaker
working
directly with
outside groups
to ensure that
its future
vehicles are
capable of
catering to
people with
disabilities..."
Read
more Hmmmm...This is fantastic and may well be in line
with the focus
we've taken
with the
upcoming 3rd Annual
Princeton SmartDrivingCar
Summit
10 days from
now. Our
focus is on all
people who
have been
marginalized
by the
unnecessary/non-inclusive/exclusive designs of our current forms of
mobility, .
These designs
are especially
irresponsible
when one no
longer needs a
person to
drive... to
keep the car
from crashing
while on its
way from where
people are to
where the want
to go. What
an enormous
opportunity to
be of service
to so many
that for what
ever reason
don't want or
can't perform
that task.
Yes, there are
situations in
which a
professional
is required.
At times, we
all need we
all need that
the help of a
professional.
But for all of
those
situations in
which a
professional
is not needed,
we have an
enormous
opportunity to
be so much
more inclusive
by removing
the other
unnecessary
exclusivities
that have
consciously or
unconsciously
crept into our
cars and
transit
systems. Our
mobility
systems no
longer need to
be big and
hold many
people to make
them
affordable, no
driver needs
to be paid.
They no longer
need to be
constrained to
only go
between the
few places
than many want
to go between
at only
certain
times. They
can readily
serve where
only a few,
even one, want
to go between
at whatever
time. The
skill set
needed to use
and be served
diminishes to
the skill set
needed by the
easiest to use
elevator. And
so on...
Friday, May 3, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Tesla’s
autonomy
event:
Impressive
progress with
an unrealistic
timeline
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Congestion
Pricing Plan
for NYC is
Coming!
Friday, March 29, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="155"
height="20"> 10
Lessons From
Uber's Fatal
Self-Driving
Car Crash
Hmmmm....
New Jersey is
now started.
Hooray!! AlainSunday, March 17, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="116"
height="32">Automated
vehicles could
provide
mobility to
the ‘mobility
disadvantaged’
A. Kornhauser, March 13, "The following testimony was provided to the New Jersey State Assembly’s Transportation and Independent Authorities Committee on Monday, March 11....
What we need, what my ask is, that we create in New Jersey a “welcoming environment” for the research, testing and demonstration of this technology and work to focusing it on improving the mobility of the mobility disadvantaged...
While such
a
demonstration
is not
prohibited in
New Jersey, it
is not
permitted.
Consequently,
this provides
excuses and
hurdles to
bringing such
mobility to
our
communities
and tarnishes
any other
welcoming
efforts aimed
at enabling
New Jersey to
lead instead
of follow in
what may well
address the
fundamental
objective of
this
hearing." Read
more
Hmmmm....Seems
so simple. I
have found it
so incredibly
hard. Alain
Friday,
March 1, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="35"
height="38">
FORM
S-1
REGISTRATION
STATEMENT
Lyft, Inc.
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class="">Autonomous
Vehicles
Feb 25, " This
workshop
brought
together
experts in
cyber-physical
systems,
machine
learning,
transportation
engineering,
and applied
mathematics,
both from
academia and
from industry,
to help bridge
the technical
gaps and to
facilitate
exchange and
collaboration
across
disciplinary
boundaries..."
Read
more
Hmmmm....
Slides and
videos of the
presentations
are available
here.
In particular,
see..:
- Andrea Censi: "Liability, Ethics, and Culture-Aware Behavior Specification using Rulebooks" Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Monday;
- Adam Oberman:"Generalization and adversarial robustness of Regularized Deep Neural Networks " Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Tuesday);
- Alain Kornhauser: "Market Forces and Market Potential for SmartDrivingCars (aka Autonomous Vehicles) " Slides, video, (via click on Schedule 11:15 Tuesday);
- Hani Mahmassani: "Shared Autonomous Fleet Services and Multimodal Urban Mobility: Optimization, Prediction and Dynamic Network Modeling " Abstract, video, (via click on Schedule 4:00 Thursday);
Friday, February 15, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Facing
opposition,
Amazon scraps
New York HQ2
plans
Friday,
January 25,
2019 Thursday, November 22, 2018
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="94"
height="29"> Market
Framework and
Outlook for
Automated
Vehicle
Systems
R. Mudge, A.
Kornhauser, M.
Hardison, Nov,
2018 "The
surface
transportation
industry is in
the early
stages of a
series of
profound
changes,
stimulated by
the
development of
increasingly
sophisticated
driving safety
and automation
technologies.
Considerable
uncertainty
exists
regarding the
speed with
which these
changes will
take place and
the nature of
their impacts
on safety, the
overall demand
for travel,
vehicle sales,
and vehicle
ownership.
This report
does not
attempt to
forecast the
pace of these
changes,
instead
advancing a
list of
“trigger
points” that
might serve as
leading
indicators of
change....What might these changes mean for actuaries and the insurance industry? Since Driverless vehicles will most likely be available only to fleet operators and not the general public, their actuarial and insurance implication will differ substantially from the implications of Safe and Self technologies that will be on vehicles purchased by consumers. But, will these vehicles continue to be insured in the same way as personal vehicles are today or will this practice change in some way. For example, if the burden of
liability shifts to the technology rather than the driver, then should actuaries focus on product liability rather than personal liability? To what extent does technology rather than personal behavior or demographics become the important link to liability? " Read more Hmmmm.... This is a very good report. Listen to SmartDrivingCar Podcast 68 with Dick Mudge. (Of course, I'm biased. ) Alain
Thursday, November 1, 2018
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> A
Green Light
for Waymo’s
Driverless
Testing in
California
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="39"
height="43"> Testimony
of Alain
Kornhauser,
Assembly
Science,
Innovation and
Technology -
Monday,
October 22,
2018 -
10:00:00 AM
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="42"
height="39">
Audio
Recording of
Assembly
Science,
Innovation and
Technology -
Monday,
October 22,
2018 -
10:00:00 AM
Friday, June 15, 2018
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS
Sunday, June 3, 2018
Waymo’s
fleet of
self-driving
minivans is
about to get
100 times
bigger
Friday, May 25, 2018
PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)
May
24, "About
9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As
the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Thursday, April 26, 2018
This startup’s CEO wants to open-source self-driving car safety testing
Saturday, March 24, 2018
Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail
Tuesday, April 17, 2017
Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto
[log in to unmask]"
alt="imap:[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.36&filename=ajafjpkfaclhelpc.png"
class=""
width="44"
height="50"
border="0">Extracting
Cognition out
of Images for
the Purpose of
Autonomous
Driving
Sunday, December 19, 2015
[log in to unmask]"
alt="imap:[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.38&filename=ccalfjfhllohpdpa.png"
class=""
width="96"
height="63"
border="0">Adam
Jonas' View on
Autonomous
Cars
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
This list is
maintained by
Alain
Kornhauser
and hosted by
the Princeton
University
Leave
|Re-enter
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