Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022

Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022

of SmartDrivingCars eLetter

MAY MOBILITY CLOSES $111 MILLION SERIES C FUNDING, BEGINS PRELIMINARY DEVELOPMENT ON TOYOTA’S NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY PLATFORM

Press release, July 12, “May Mobility, a leader in the development and deployment of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, today closed a $111 million Series C round of funding. Additionally, the company plans to continue to pursue its deployment programs using the Toyota Sienna Autono-MaaS vehicle platform while beginning development on another vehicle design centered around mobility, Toyota’s e-Palette, signaling the next potential milestone as it seeks new ways to bring equitable mobility solutions to the masses….” Read more Hmmmm… Hopefully this will enable May Mobility to take seriously Trenton MOVES and other MOVES-style deployment initiatives in New Jersey and beyond. Alain

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 275 / PodCast 2 7 5 w/Daisy Wall, Director of Policy and Advocacy, May Mobility

F. Fishkin, July 16, “What lies ahead for May Mobility following the closing of a 111 million dollar funding round…including the participation of State Farm? Director of Policy and Advocacy Daisy Wall joins Alain Kornhauser & Fred Fishkin for a look ahead. Plus layoffs at Nuro and Argo AI, news about Cruise and the amazing Webb space telescope images. Episode 275 of Smart Driving Cars..”

Technical support provided by: https://www.cartsmobility.com/

The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University’s Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative

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Hubble v Webb

J. Christensen, July 13, “Webb & Hubble overlapped with slider”, See more Hmmmm… Very interesting. Alain

Robotic Research Accelerates Commercial Autonomy Applications

K. Jost, July 6, “Technology developer Robotic Research has been working on autonomous and robotics solutions for the industry’s harshest, unstructured environments around the world since 2002. CEO Alberto Lacaze founded the Clarksburg, Maryland, company mainly to serve the U.S. DOD, with many of its military contracts geared to creating autonomy stacks for a variety of vehicles.

Originally from Uruguay, Lacaze describes himself as a “technical guy,” holding close to 150 patents in the field of robotics. He developed some of the very early neural networks in the 1990s, and has worked with pretty much every aspect of autonomy stack over the years. Lacaze was part of the research faculty at the University of Maryland from the late 1990s to the early 2000s, and he worked at the National Institute of Standards of Technology as part of the government’s efforts to develop autonomy systems for military vehicles.

About a decade later, the company began working on the commercial side. “We’re more of an established company on the DOD side, and more of a startup on the commercial side,” Lacaze said. The company’s vehicle- and sensor-agnostic full-stack autonomy kit, called AutoDrive™, has been integrated in a variety of vehicles, including North America’s first automated heavy-duty transit bus, Class 8 trucks and yard trucks.

“My understanding is that they’re mainly concentrated on highway driving, which is very appealing,” Lacaze said. “But we think that there is another story of autonomy, which is everything else. Not everything is on the road driving, and not everything is robotaxis.” “We know that this is something that we can do very well, and there’s many competitions on the military side that we have won specifically because of those capabilities,” he said, regarding operation without GPS. “[With] many of our customers where we’re starting to have deployments or pilots, they’re telling us that that is unique from us and a big advantage. Nobody wants to stop their warehouse applications every time that someone turns on a welder or a jammer, which happens surprisingly commonly, believe it or not.”…

Read more Hmmmm… Very interesting. Alain

Nuro lays off employees in Texas, California and Arizona

B. Wessling, July 13, “Nuro has laid off seven employees in Houston and Mountain View, California and three more at its Phoenix offices. The company has raised $2.1 billion in funding since its founding in 2016.

A Nuro spokesperson told The Robot Report, “As part of our ongoing business strategy development, we closed four positions in Houston and three positions in Mountain View, and offered severance packages to the seven people affected by the change….

Nuro’s reported layoffs follow a string of other industry layoffs within the last few weeks. Argo AI, another company developing autonomous vehicles, announced it’s laying off 150 employees and shutting down its operation in Washington, DC.

Starship Technologies, a sidewalk delivery robot company, also recently laid off 11% of its workforce. The outdoor robot delivery market has become quite crowded for companies like Starship and Nuro. Other sidewalk delivery companies, like Coco, Kiwibot, Serve Robotics and Synkar, have cropped up in recent years. As well as heavier payload companies, like White Rhino.

Starship said it had been negatively impacted by the “dramatic downward shifts” in the global economy and investment market.

Downward shifts in the global investment market, particularly in China, were also cited for the reported layoffs at Pudu Robotics, a Chinese developer of commercial service robots.

Additionally, DoorDash announced it was closing Chowbotics just 18 months after acquiring the business. Chowbotics was a part of DoorDash’s robotics division, DoorDash Labs, which is still in operation.” Read more Hmmmm… Earning revenue to pay salaries is proving to be a challenge for the AV industry. Alain

Cruise robotaxi service under review following anonymous letter

R. Bellan, July 14, “Someone claiming to be a Cruise employee sent an anonymous letter to a California regulatory agency raising concerns that the company is launching its robotaxi service too early. The employee cited the regularity of instances that Cruise robotaxis malfunction in some way and are left stranded on streets, often blocking traffic or emergency vehicles, as one of his main concerns, according to the letter that has been reviewed by TechCrunch.

The letter also claims that employees “generally do not believe we are ready to launch to the public, but there is fear of admitting this because of expectations from leadership and investors.” Cruise has responded to this with results from an April 2022 survey from over 2,000 employees, in which 94% of respondents agreed with the statement: “Safety is a top priority here.”…” Read more Hmmmm… Nothing is easy. Since TechCrunch has “reviewed” the letter, why didn’t it link it so that we can be better informed. Is it a “secret”??? Hopefully the CPUC will release it or will we need to file a Freedom of Information request? Alain

Update on US Automated Transit Projects

R. Mudge, July 20 “Automated bus deployments in the US… Two dimensions: autonomousBus & ADAS Applications…” Read more Hmmmm… Update to mid 2022 of progress in traditional urban rubber-tire transit. Alain

Automated Bus Rapid Transit A New Mode for High-Quality, High-Capacity Transit Corridors

R. Mudge, Oct 2020, “Elected officials and transit executives today face operating crises due to the unprecedented COVID19 pandemic, uncertain future demand, funding shortfalls, and competition from new services and technology. This paper describes a new technology that may help transit leaders address some of these problems as they look toward the future. This paper describes a new approach to high-capacity transit, Automated Bus Rapid Transit (ABRT). ABRT uses state-of-the-art technology to enhance conventional Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). This document provides information for elected officials, transit executives, transit planners, and engineers who seek options to improve transit service while taking advantage of new technology. Automated BRT enhances conventional BRT by leveraging various technologies of automated driving systems (ADS). ADS cover a wide range of capabilities, including: automated collision avoidance and emergency braking to increase safety, automated lane-keeping to allow running on narrow rights of way and sharp turns, automated precision docking, which allows level boarding at platforms to maintain an ADA-compliant gap and reduce damage to buses and platforms, automated smooth acceleration, deceleration, and speed control, and “platooning” which can create an electronically linked train of buses controlled by a single driver in the lead bus. …” Read more Hmmmm… Progress in traditional urban rubber-tire transit though mid-2020. Alain

Musk said not one self-driving Tesla had ever crashed. By then, regulators already knew of 8

R. Mitchel, July 14, “Elon Musk has long used his mighty Twitter megaphone to amplify the idea that Tesla’s automated driving software isn’t just safe — it’s safer than anything a human driver can achieve.

That campaign kicked into overdrive last fall when the electric-car maker expanded its Full Self-Driving “beta” program from a few thousand people to a fleet that now numbers more than 100,000. The $12,000 feature purportedly lets a Tesla drive itself on highways and neighborhood streets, changing lanes, making turns and obeying traffic signs and signals.

As critics scolded Musk for testing experimental technology on public roads without trained safety drivers as backups, Santa Monica investment manager and vocal Tesla booster Ross Gerber was among the allies who sprang to his defense.

“There has not been one accident or injury since FSD beta launch,” he tweeted in January. “Not one. Not a single one.”

To which Musk responded with a single word: “Correct.”

In fact, by that time dozens of drivers had already filed safety complaints with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration over incidents involving Full Self-Driving — and at least eight of them involved crashes. The complaints are in the public domain, in a database on the NHTSA website…. “ Read more Hmmmm… FSD is a really bad name! As is AutoPilot. Elon, please change the name. You like to say that for products (cars, rocket engines, …), fewer parts are better. For names/labels, implying less is better. Appreciation tends to be relative to expectation. By using the names FSD and AutoPilot, you’ve set the expectation so high you ruined your chance of creating happy campers. Just change the names. You’ll exceed expectations and we’ll stop giving you grief. Alain

Pennsylvania Senate panel forwards autonomous vehicle bill

K. Goble, July 15, “Work continues at the Pennsylvania statehouse to advance a bill that is touted to modernize the state’s vehicle code to allow for the driverless testing and deployment of autonomous cars and trucks.

Currently, the Keystone State prohibits vehicle operation on state roadways without a human driver behind the wheel inside the vehicle.

The Senate Transportation Committee voted 11-3 to advance a bill, SB965, to legalize and regulate driverless vehicles in the state. The vote follows action in the House to approve a bill to accomplish the same goals. …” Read more Hmmmm… The title is misleading. This is about platooning with the requirement that a driver be in the lead vehicle. It addresses a very small segment of the “autonomous vehicle sector” of the economy. Note, the “vehicle-following problem” is much simpler than the “vehicle-leading problem”.

Hopefully New Jersey will address legislatively the permitting of driverless/attendantless lead vehicles that can operate safely following or leading and enable the delivery of “safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality mobility for all. Now that’s worth enabling legislatively. Alain

Hyundai, Kia to launch Level 3 self-driving Genesis G90, EV9 in 2023

H. Kim, Jul 15, “South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group will launch its most-advanced Level 3 autonomous cars next year, starting with Hyundai Motor Co.’s flagship luxury Genesis G90 sedan and Kia Corp.’s large-size electric sport utility vehicle, the EV9.

The group’s commercial launch of the self-driving vehicles equipped with its advanced technology is designed to help Hyundai and Kia better compete with electric car giant Tesla Inc., which is also the global frontrunner in autonomous driving…” Read more Hmmmm… Lots of gonnas, stated explicitly to “better compete with … Tesla”. I guess that says it all by Hyundai/Kia and likely says it for the rest of the traditional car industry. Alain

Tesla tries to help Texas grid amid heat wave with its cars until it can with Powerwalls

F. Lambert, July 12, “Tesla is trying to help Texas’s electric grid again amid another heat wave with its electric cars until it can with Powerwalls as it lobbies for some rule changes.

Texas has a notoriously fragile grid that is having issues supporting increasing peak electricity demand.

The issues have mostly come in the winter amid cold fronts, but the state’s electric grid has had issues this year with early heat waves.

The first one hit as soon as May, and it tripped six power plants in the state.

At the time, Tesla introduced a new way to try to help out with a new in-car alert to Tesla owners in the state encouraging them not to charge between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. if they can avoid it:

A heat wave is expected to impact the grid in Texas over the next few days. The grid operator recommends to avoid charging during peak hours between 3pm and 8pm, if possible, to help statewide efforts to manage demand….” Read more Hmmmm… OK. Alain

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Calendar of Upcoming Events

Garden Grove, CA July 18-21, 2022

Previous SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast/PodCasts

These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com

https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provided technical support

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 273 / PodCast 2 Michael Sena, Editor The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, June 23, “Smart Driving Cars episode 273: Getting Moves moving. The June Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit brought the players together. Now the real game begins. “The Dispatcher” publisher and consultant Michael Sena joins us for that plus…Einride’s autonomous electric transports, Cruise takes paying passengers and a critical checkpoint for Zoox.”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 272 / PodCast 2 Ed Niedermeyer

F. Fishkin, June 16, “With NHTSA releasing the data on 392 crashes involving driver assistance systems, we dive into the significance and take-aways with guest Ed Niedermeyer, author, journalist and co-host of the Autonocast. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 272 of Smart Driving Cars.”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 271 / PodCast 2 Summary of 5th Summit, Alain Kornhauser & Jerry He

F. Fishkin, June 8, “From the people living in Trenton’s Donnelly Homes, to Trenton Central High, to Princeton University, there were lessons to be learned at the 5th annual Smart Driving Cars Summit. CARTS Mobility executive director Jerry He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin to discuss the progress. (video by www.DanielProductions.tv).” Watch Video Hmmmm…Outstanding

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 2 Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, May 26, “Smart Driving Cars (episode 269) Did government car ratings take a wrong turn? The star rating system for new cars doesn’t offer the protections it should. That’s the view of consultant and “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for episode 269 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus… another self-driving promise from Elon Musk, the Smart Driving Cars Summit and more..”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 268 / PodCast 268 Bob Kacergis F. Fishkin, May 15, “Wireless electric vehicle charging can make autonomous mobility services more affordable for all. How? Momentum Dynamics Chief Commercial Officer Bob Kacergis explains on episode 268 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..Oshkosh, Torc Robotics, Trenton Moves and more.”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 267

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F. Fishkin, May 7, “The Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit is less than a month away, focused on making mobility for all a reality through Trenton Moves. Plus Tesla says Autopilot is achieving big results in improving vehicle safety. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more in episode 267 of Smart Driving Cars.”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 2 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, April 28, “Germany has given the green light for no hands on the wheel mobility. What does it mean? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for that…plus Waymo, Tesla, Ford, Argo and more.”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 2 w/Jim Nicholas CEO, Uniphy

F. Fishkin, April 23, “Designing the robotaxi rider experience. Uniphy CEO Jim Nicholas is forging partnerships to help transform consumer experiences with vehicles and more. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that…plus the latest on Tesla, Trenton and more. SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 264/ PodCast 2

F. Fishkin, April 15, “Smart Driving Cars episode 264: Massive Robotaxi Move by #Musk and #Tesla? Elon Musk is saying Tesla will make a massive move into robotaxis. And what about his attempt to buy Twitter? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin weigh in on that…plus Argo AI coming to Greenville, South Carolina and Cruise expands Walmart deliveries in Arizona. That and more on episode 264 of Smart Driving Cars. Tune in and subscribe.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 2 w/Henry Posner III’77 F. Fishkin, April 7, “Mobility takes on a different meaning for Ukrainian refugees. Henry Posner II and his Railroad Development Corporation has been helping to transport many into Germany. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for episode 263 of Smart Driving Cars. That plus GM Cruise, Aurora, VW, Qualcomm & more.”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 2 w/ Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, March 30, The latest from the Symposium on the Future Networked Car, the UK investigates laws for driverless cars, cars….politics and Russia, Tesla and some big news from Waymo. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for Smart Driving Cars episode 262.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 2 w/Sven Beiker & Dick Mudge

F. Fishkin, March 25, “Where autonomous mobility vehicles operate matters. But why does too. And Mercedes takes a leap. That and more as Sven Beiker of Silicon Valley Mobility and Dick Mudge of Compass Transportation join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 261 of Smart Driving Cars.”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 2 F. Fishkin, March 21, “Apple reportedly has dissolved its car team and why is Alain now eating at McDonald’s? Episode 260 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin has that plus GM, Cruise, Tesla, Aurora, Polestar and more.”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 259 w/ Mo ElShenawy F. Fishkin, March 9, “Cruise, with GM and Honda as operating partners, has gone truly driverless in San Francisco and is seeking permission to eliminate steering wheels in the Cruise Origin. EVP of Engineering Mo ElShenawy joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for a special edition of Smart Driving Cars.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 25 w/ Michael Sena, Publisher, The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, March 3, “How will electric vehicle charging stations make money? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena poses that question and many more on episode 258 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus Ford creates a distinct EV car business, an update on NJ progress and more. Tune in and subscribe….”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 257 w/ Cliff Winston & Marc Scribner F. Fishkin, Feb. 25, “So what about these reports and opinion pieces casting doubt on the future of autonomous mobility? The Brookings Institution’s Cliff Winston and Reason Foundation’s Marc Scribner join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to slice and dice. Plus GM Cruise, VW and more..”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 256 w/Danny Shapiro, VP Automotive, NVIDIA F. Fishkin, Feb. 18, “With Jaguar Land Rover signing on to partner with NVIDIA for advanced driver assistance and autonomous capabilities in all of their vehicles starting in 2025, what will the collaboration mean? NVIDIA’s VP for Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Waymo, VW, Trenton and more.”

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 / PodCast 255 w/Brad Templeton F. Fishkin, Feb. 11, “The engaging debate over disengagements. In episode 255 of Smart Driving Cars, Forbes.com Sr. Transportation Contributor Brad Templeton engages with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser over the path to the future of autonomous mobility. The latest data on disengagements from companies testing self-driving vehicles in California, Tesla, Cruise, Waymo and New Jersey begins funding Trenton MOVES…are part of the spirited discussion with co-host Fred Fishkin.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 254 / Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Alex Roy

F. Fishkin, Feb. 4, “Why Self Driving Isn’t a Race, It’s a Game. That’s what Alex Roy, Director of Special Projects at Argo AI writes at www.groundtruthautonomy.com. Alex joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest Smart Driving Cars for a wide ranging discussion on that plus the latest on Trenton Moves, FreightWaves, Tesla, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota and more.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 253 / Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Jan. 27, “The Federal Trade Commission looks to level the tech playing field…but “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena has some words of warning. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo and more on Episode 253 of Smart Driving Cars..”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 252 / Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Michael Krauss & Alexandra Mueller

F. Fishkin, Jan. 20, “The IIHS has announced it will rate vehicle partial automation systems. Spearheading is research scientist Alexandra Mueller who joins us. And Professor Emeritus Michael Krauss from the George Mason University School of Law on the manslaughter charges leveled in a Tesla autopilot case in California. Episode 252 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.”

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 2 / A. Kornhauser: Making it Happen: Trenton MOVES… a Framework for…

F. Fishkin, Jan. 15, “In this special edition of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and his presentation: Making it Happen: Trenton Moves-a framework for the deployment of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high quality transportation. The focus is on providing autonomous mobility in a place where there is real need. A first. Join the effort.”

Link to 250 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

Recent Highlights of:

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U.S. agency probing self-driving Cruise car crash in California

D. Shepardson, July 7, “The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened a special investigation into a recent crash of a Cruise self-driving vehicle in California that resulted in minor injuries, the agency said on Thursday.

The auto safety agency did not identify the specific crash, but a Cruise vehicle operating in driverless autonomous mode was involved in a crash involving minor injuries on June 3 in San Francisco, according to a report filed with the California Department of Motor Vehicles. …” Read more Hmmmm… The police report indicates that the Cruise vehicle stopped while making a protected left turn, yielding to avoid being T-boned by a speeding Prius that might run its red. Instead the Prius changed to its left turn lane and broadsided the Cruise vehicle. I can’t wait to see the Cruise 360 video of that crash. Hopefully the Prius’ insurance company will reimburse the Federal Government for its expenses incurred in its special investigation of the crash that it caused. Alain

THE DISPATCHER

Princeton Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit June 24, M. Sena “THE DISPATCHER, July 2022

IN THIS ISSUE

Princeton Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit ………..

Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility for Everyone ……………………………………………….2

Dispatch Central……………………………………………………….9

Someone lit a fire under NHTSA …………………………………9

The Economist: Right analysis, wrong solution …………..12

Musings of a Dispatcher: Eyes on the Back Story………..15

The evolution of digital maps and ADAS ……………………15

Digital Maps for the Vehicle – 1970-2022 ………………….24 …

” Read more Hmmmm… Another great edition and very well written summary of the 5th Summit. Alain

The SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems summary report is available here, while the SAE Levels 3-5 automated driving systems summary report is available here. Going forward, NHTSA will release data updates monthly…

Read more Hmmmm… This is a good start; however, as NHTSA repeats many times, this is just a start and there are many “data limitations”. The most severe may well be the possibility of substantial “sampling bias”, the most severe of which is that each OEM sourced the reported data very differently. That makes the data between OEMs incomparable.

Also unreported is any measure that would enable a “crash rate” for an OEM to be determined. One only has a numerator value but no denominator value.

Finally, 392 crashes of “Level 2” cars were reported during the “10” month period of July 2021 and May 15, 2022. About 12 million vehicles are involved in traffic crashes every year among the 283 million vehicles that operate in the US. Assuming any one vehicle is unlikely to be involved in more than one crash per year, it means that each vehicle, on average is involved in 12M/283M = 0.0424 crashes per year. Thus, if these ADAS cars were involved in crashes at the average rate, and had their ADAS on all the time, the 500 vehicle crashes per year contained in these data would expect to be generated from a fleet of only about 11,800 vehicles (or 0.0042% of the vehicles (“everything being equal”, ADAS on all the time.).

Consequently, either, …

  • These system outrageously reduce crash probabilities, and/or
  • maybe some, but we’re probably not much luckier.
  • very few of the cars in use during that “10” month period had Level 2 capabilities, and/or
  • unfortunately, the VIN number doesn’t identify these cars and only Tesla announces how many sold (I may have missed the reportings)
  • very few of the drivers of those cars rarely engaged the Level 2 features, and/or
  • likely. Only Tesla releases data on the utilization of its level 2 features but does so only in aggregate terms that don’t allow for correction of sampling bias associated with engagement in “easy” driving conditions versus “challenging” driving conditions.
  • enormous undercounting
  • likely, only Tesla has the opportunity to either “know all” or sample effectively because of their OtA monitoring of its vehicles. Everyone else has conveniently kept their heads in the sand. Mercedes didn’t report any; however, during that period I think my Intelligent Cruise Control and Lane Centering were engaged when I hit a deer. Mercedes must not have been watching me, I didn’t report it and I didn’t get the memo that informed me to do anything.

Anyway. It is a start and at least to me the numbers are not startling.

What needs improvement is sourcing of the incidents. Maybe OtA should be mandated. At minimum, the VIN should specify the existence of these capabilities. Then normal police reportings can begin to “automatically” access the “black box event recorders” (see also Accident data recorder and NHTSA that are in most cars today. Unfortunately, privacy concerns makes this not-easy. So here we are. It won’t be easy to do much better, but we should continue to try.

What the data do point out is that a substantial number of the crashes involved the rear ending of a stationary object. I have pointed out repeatedly that the source code of these systems explicitly disregard stationary objects in the lane ahead. Justifying this explicit process is that current sensors incur unacceptable false positives when trying to determine if sufficient headroom exists under detected stationary object in the lane ahead. Thus, to avoid braking in response to these rare false positives, stationary objects in the lane ahead are all assumed to be “pass under-able”.

As one drives, one encounters many stationary objects in the lane ahead. These are readily sensed and precisely located ahead. Readily sensed are overpasses, signs, tree canopies, traffic lights, … all of which can usually be readily passed under. (As can vehicles ahead that come to rest in vehicle-follower mode. These are not disregarded because one is in vehicle-follower mode.)

But when one is in vehicle-leader mode and one encounters a stationary object ahead, I believe, most, if not all “Level 2” systems disregard that object and assume the car can pass underneath. So if you are in vehicle leader mode and come over the crest of a hill to be confronted with a stopped object ahead, your system will disregard that object. Similarly, if the vehicle that you are following changes lanes forcing you to become a leader, any stationary object ahead will be disregarded. Alain

3 minute Promo: https://youtu.be/q5Ov_dPuRV4

The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit

Summit Preview Tour

Dr. Steve Still’s Tribute to Heywood Patterson

S. Still, June 3, “… Heywood Patterson, 67, He often drove members of his church to Tops, helping them load their groceries into his car and then taking them home. “That’s what he did all the time,” Deborah Patterson said. “That’s what he loved to do”. …” Watch Video Hmmmm… A principal reason for “Trenton MOVES”-like deployments is to do what Heywood Patterson “loved to do” for the many. Alain

The Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles

M. Sena, May 24, “New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) all around the world have created a separate and unequal set of standards for vehicle safety operating in parallel with the Type Approval processes in most countries and the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and their equivalents in other countries. One standard is enough. In this month’s the lead article, I look at why this has happened, why it is not a good idea, and what should be done to correct the situation.

There is no Musings in this month’s issue. Instead, I have put my musings energies to work in Dispatch Central. You can see the topics below. The section ends with a notable quote from the CEO of Stellantis on the topic of battery electric vehicles.

Enjoy your June issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I have written or you just want to let me know that you got something out of reading it. …” Read more Hmmmm… Every month, great reading. Enjoy! Alain

From pricing carbon to fighting opioid abuse, ORFE showcased top senior projects A. Nathans, May 11, “When Serena Ren presented her senior thesis on using machine learning for art appraisals last month, she hoped to see her friend, Joyce Luo, present her thesis on fighting opioid addiction. But since all students in the Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering present their theses in parallel sessions, this was impossible.

But on May 4, Ren and Luo finally got to see each other’s presentations in a classroom in Sherrerd Hall, thanks to the department’s first-ever event in which selected students present their thesis work to the whole department….” Read more Hmmmm… I’m so proud! Hopefully we’ll be able to release the video so you can enjoy. Keep trying the link:

Princeton ORFE Class of 2022 Senior Thesis Symposium “Best 8”

PAVE VIRTUAL PANEL “AVS AND PUBLIC GOOD: TRENTON MOVES” PAVE, May 4, “Autonomous vehicle technologies offer incredible potential: they could make our highways safer, they could offer new mobility options for people who can’t drive, and they could help create a more equitable transportation system for those who are not well-served by our current system.

During the month of May, we are highlighting places where AVs are in use — today — being deployed, tested, and used for public good. We want to look at examples of the technology being used to serve food deserts, to expand access to rural communities, to offer new accessibility options, and more.

We are starting with the Trenton MOVES initiative, which is the first large-scale urban transit system in America based entirely on self-driving shuttles. The shuttles, which carry four to eight passengers, serve traditionally underserved Trenton neighborhoods, where 70% of households have limited access to a single automobile, or no access at all. Our panelists will detail the program, describing how it works, the results it has achieved, and their vision for the future……” Read more Hmmmm… Very nice. Be sure to watch video 😁 and see ZoomCast 267 Alain

NJDOT Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti and the Trenton NJ MOVES Program P. Keller, April 29, “New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton…..” Read more Hmmmm… Very nice. 😁

Knight Foundation April 21, “CARTS Executive Director Jerry He explains to the audience at #CoMotionMiami that:

Hmmmm… Yup! See ZoomCast265 Alain

Musk promises ‘dedicated robotaxi’ with futuristic look from Tesla H. Jin, April 6, “Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) will make a “dedicated” self-driving taxi that will “look futuristic,” Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Thursday, without giving a timeframe.

The 50-year-old billionaire, wearing a black cowboy hat and sunglasses, made the comments at the opening of Tesla’s $1.1 billion factory in Texas, which is home to its new headquarters.

“Massive scale. Full self-driving. There’s going to be a dedicated robotaxi,” Musk told a large crowd at the factory….” Read more

Hmmmm… Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma’s house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.

Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn’t have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma’s house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to “Massive Scale” scale and Massive Profitability.

RoboTaxis’ evolution to “Massive Scale” is turning out to be different. Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn’t seem to be working sociologically for Waymo. The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality of life. Nice for selfies, but not much more.

Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. “Safe” is “safe”, but “high-quality” is relative to what one now has readily available. For the rich, that’s where they’ve already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently, the service is used primarily for taking selfies.

For those that don’t have their own car for whatever reason (can’t drive, don’t want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful. Absolutely trivial for a taxi service to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use.

Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving “Massive Scale” then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;

  • those that don’t already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.
  • those for which his taxi can substantially change their lives for the better.

These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton’s 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton’s 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year’s 365.25.

They’ll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your taxis to go viral! You’ll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, …..

That’s the natural road to “Massive Scale” for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.

“Massive Scale” starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain

Taking our next step in the City by the Bay The Waymo Team, March 30, “This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer to get their morning coffee and go to work. Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we’ve begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees. They now join the thousands of Waymo One riders we’ve been serving in Arizona, making fully autonomous driving technology part of their daily lives….” Read more Hmmmm… Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and fundamental expression of confidence in your technology. Please come to New Jersey where we are certain that you can actually deliver “Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility” that will substantially improve the quality-of-life of many by transforming affordable housing into affordable living and more.

Let’s look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers…

Trenton:

Population: 90,000. PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000 IntraTrenton: 150,000 PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles

Operational Productivity: VehicleTrips/Day: 50 Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2 PersonTrips/VehicleDay: 100 PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000

100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)

50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).

Cost: Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip Electricity + maintenance + management + … = $0.57/PersonTrip Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip

New Jersey:

Population: 9+ Million

PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million

IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles Operational Productivity VehicleTrips/Day: 60 Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5 PersonTrips/VehicleDay: 150 PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000

10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).

Cost: Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43 Electricity + maintenance + management … = $0.57 Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00 Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)

10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:

10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year 90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value proposition could have the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)

Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year

Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn’t be completely ignoring me. I guess I’m missing something. Maybe someone else will call me? 😎 Alain

Moving Forward with Trenton MOVES K. Pyle, Feb. 9, “Dr. Alain Kornhauser’s vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement…” Read more Hmmmm… Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain

Smart Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving Feb. 11, “The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of the event held on February 9th.” Read more Hmmmm… Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain.

Trenton MOVES W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,”We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.

Originally announced by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor’s Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.

The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.

The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. in the Trenton Central High School auditorium. Members of the press will be invited to attend. ….” Read more Hmmmm… Another real milestone.

The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals. Next comes the 5th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ. The Summit will be focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES’ mobility objectives (Safety, Equity, Affordability, Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey.

Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. 😁 Alain

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Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD

Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering

Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE

Director, Transportation Program

Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering

229 Sherrerd Hall

Princeton University

Princeton, NJ

alaink@princeton.edu

609-980-1427 (c)