10.26 - Baidu
July 25, 2022
SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Baidu unveils autonomous vehicle without steering wheel
Reuters, July 16, "China's search engine giant Baidu Inc on Thursday unveiled its new autonomous vehicle (AV) with a detachable steering wheel, with plans to put it to use for its robotaxi service in China next year.
Cost per unit will drop to 250,000 yuan ($37,031.55) for the new model, compared with 480,000 yuan for the previous generation, Baidu said in a statement.
"This massive cost reduction will enable us to deploy tens of thousands of AVs across China," Baidu's chief executive Robin Li said at the Baidu World conference. "We are moving towards a future where taking a robotaxi will be half the cost of taking a taxi today." Read more
Hmmmm... Really?? See video. Where do I buy 10 for immediate delivery to New Jersey with option to buy 100 more by EoY'22 and 1st inline to buy 1,000 more by EoY'23. eMail me!!!
While the design is certainly not ideal for "Trenton MOVES" or "Perth Amboy MOVES" they would be good enough to get started with addressing the "Sociology Challenges" of MOVES-style deployments. And the price is right if this isn't total click-bait. But... that is a really big if. 🙁 Alain
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 276 / PodCast 2 7 6 w/R. Mudge, President, Compass Transportation
F. Fishkin, July 25, "Following the TRB gathering in California, what was accomplished? Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge joins us for a look. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, Baidu, Zoox & more. Smart Driving Cars episode 276 with Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin."
Technical support provided by: https://www.cartsmobility.com/
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
Electric cars to create digital map of Dubai for first driverless taxis
Staff, July 24, "A digital map is to be created of Dubai to pave the way for the first driverless taxis, in a major step forward for the emirate's autonomous transport strategy.
Two Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicles, equipped with sensors and cameras, are to be used ahead of the wider introduction of high-tech taxis next year.
Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority said the public-private partnership with US company Cruise was the "first of its kind worldwide".
The RTA said the Cruise vehicles would initially be used in Jumeirah and driven by specialist drivers..." Read more
Hmmmm... I'm really jealous. How do I get New Jersey to get in line to begin a similar initiative. Even though we're not as credit worthy, we do have customers who could fundamentally benefit from the technology and are right here in the US of A. eMail me!!! (before Baidu 😁) Alain
Tesla (TSLA) is surging and the shorts are hurting
F. Lambert, July 22, "Tesla's stock (TSLA) is surging following its Q2 2022 financial results, and the shorts are hurting on what is surprisingly still the most betted against company in the world.
On Wednesday night, Tesla released its Q2 2022 financial results and beat market expectations by a considerable margin despite facing a lot of difficulties. The results have sent Tesla's stock price surging by 9% yesterday, and it's up another 3% this morning.
"That's the highest Tesla's stock has been since May: Tesla Inc (TSLA) reported strong second quarter results with 42% year-on-year revenue growth; strong vehicle demand (even as they raised car prices); and continued production forecast of 50% annual sales growth (even as gross margins slipped due to supply chain challenges). The end of "supply chain hell" may turn into a "short squeeze hell" for TSLA short sellers as Elon Musk says the firm has the "potential for a record breaking second half of the year." Read more
Hmmmm... Impressive. Alain
Trenton & PerthAmboy MOVES: Commencing the Deployment of autonomousTaxis throughout New Jersey
A. Kornhauser, J. He, "Presentation made @ TRB ARTS2022 Conference in Garden Grove, CA, July 18, 2022." Read more ...
Hmmmm... See CARTSMobility.com Nice. 😁 Alain
Tesla surpasses 35 million miles driven on Full Self-Driving Beta, and pace is ramping up
F. Lambert, July 20, "Tesla is reporting that its fleet of customers driving with the Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta has now surpassed 35 million miles driven, and the pace is ramping up.
FSD Beta enables Tesla vehicles to drive autonomously to a destination entered in the car's navigation system, but the driver needs to remain vigilant and ready to take control at all times.
Since the responsibility lies with the driver and not Tesla's system, it is still considered a level two driver-assist system despite its name, but it is the closest thing to a self-driving vehicle that is available to customers and not in a closed fleet operated by companies like Waymo and Cruise.
Because Tesla is putting those vehicles in the hands of customers in fairly large numbers, it is accumulating data at an impressive pace.
With the release of its Q2 2022 financial results, Tesla shared some rare numbers showing that FSD Beta has now driven over 35 million miles and the pace is increasing:...." Read more
Hmmmm... If Tesla would only change the name. Crowd sourcing this much information is really impressive. For Cruise to get this much experience/data in the UAE the labor charge will likely be more than $3/mile... $100M. (although pocket change for the UAE) . Alain
Amazon-owned self driving firm Zoox seeks to test robotaxi in California
Press release, July 10, "ZOOX, a self-driving technology firm owned by Amazon.com, said on Tuesday (Jul 19) it was gearing up to launch its robotaxi business, self-certifying that its vehicle with no pedals or steering wheel meets US federal regulations and applying for a permit in California to test-drive it.
"We really invested the extra time and resources to build a vehicle that doesn't require exemptions and then that basically lets us control our own destiny and also deploy our vehicles at scale," Jesse Levison, Zoox's co-founder and chief technology officer told Reuters.
Zoox's vehicle, called VH6, has room for 4 passengers, with 2 facing each other - a layout that looks like startup Cruise's Origin vehicle unveiled in January 2020. Cruise is controlled by General Motors..." Read more
Hmmmm... Seems like a good vehicle for "Trenton MOVES". I wonder how its price is going to compare to Baidu's? That was a rhetorical question. 😁 Alain
Tesla found 1% liable in fatal crash of a teen it dedicated a feature to
F. Lambert, July 12, "Tesla has been found only 1% liable by a jury in a case over a fatal crash of a teen, and dedicated a feature to his memory.
In May of 2018, two Fort Lauderdale teens were killed and a third was injured after the Tesla Model S driven by 18-year-old Barrett Riley crashed into a concrete wall at 116 mph... Tesla originally commented on the lawsuit:
Our thoughts continue to be with the families affected by this tragedy. Unfortunately, no car could have withstood a high-speed crash of this kind. Tesla's Speed Limit Mode, which allows Tesla owners to limit their car's speed and acceleration, was introduced as an over-the-air update last year in dedication to our customer's son, Barrett Riley, who tragically passed away in the accident....." Read more
Hmmmm... If they aren't, factory settings should be "9 mph over current speed limit (Teslas know or can read speed limits)" with each user-requested mile increase requiring an exponentially increasing required insurance premium. Alain
Tesla loses its head of AI and vision Andrej Karpathy – a big loss for the Autopilot team
F. Lambert, July 13, "Andrej Karpathy, senior director in charge of AI and computer vision at Tesla, announced that he is leaving the automaker. It is a big loss for Tesla's Autopilot team and self-driving effort.
Karpathy joined Tesla more than five years ago as a neural net and computer vision expert. He quickly rose through the ranks and became a big part of Tesla's Autopilot team and the automaker's effort to develop a full self-driving system.
As Tesla expanded its effort from self-driving to broader artificial intelligence, Karpathy was promoted to senior director of AI at Tesla...." Read more
Hmmmm... This is a really big loss Can't wait to see where he re-emerges. Alain
Tesla's new Full Self-Driving Beta (10.13) is about left turn, animal detection, speed limits, and more
F. Lambert, July 18, "Tesla's new Full Self-Driving Beta update (10.13) is all about left turns, animal detection, speed limits, and much more. Here are the release notes.
FSD Beta enables Tesla vehicles to drive autonomously to a destination entered in the car's navigation system, but the driver needs to remain vigilant and ready to take control at all times.
Since the responsibility lies with the driver and not Tesla's system, it is still considered a level two driver-assist system despite its name. It has been sort of a "two steps forward, one step back" type of program, as some updates have seen regressions in terms of the driving capabilities....." Read more
Hmmmm... driver needs to remain vigilant and ready to take control at all times. ... so please change the name! Since the acronym FSD is now emphasized, maybe FSD stands for "Fantom Self Driving" with phantom (appropriately misspelled, or "Fantasy Self Driving"). Other suggestions, please. 😎 Alain
Calendar of Upcoming Events
Previous SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast/PodCasts
These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provided technical support
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 275 / PodCast 2 7 5 w/Daisy Wall, Director of Policy and Advocacy, May Mobility F. Fishkin, July 16, "What lies ahead for May Mobility following the closing of a 111 million dollar funding round...including the participation of State Farm? Director of Policy and Advocacy Daisy Wall joins Alain Kornhauser & Fred Fishkin for a look ahead. Plus layoffs at Nuro and Argo AI, news about Cruise and the amazing Webb space telescope images. Episode 275 of Smart Driving Cars.."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 274 / PodCast 2 74 w/ Anil Lewis of the National Federation of the Blind & Katherine Freund, founder ITN America
F. Fishkin, July 9, "More MOVES progress in NJ, NHTSA investigates a Cruise crash, and two fatal Tesla crashes, Musk makes more headlines and layoffs at Argo AI. Plus from the 5th annual Smart Driving Cars Summit, Anil Lewis of the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America founder Katherine Freund. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 274 of Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 273 / PodCast 2 73 Michael Sena, Editor The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, June 23, "Smart Driving Cars episode 273: Getting Moves moving. The June Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit brought the players together. Now the real game begins. "The Dispatcher" publisher and consultant Michael Sena joins us for that plus...Einride's autonomous electric transports, Cruise takes paying passengers and a critical checkpoint for Zoox."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 272 / PodCast 2 72 Ed Niedermeyer
F. Fishkin, June 16, "With NHTSA releasing the data on 392 crashes involving driver assistance systems, we dive into the significance and take-aways with guest Ed #Niedermeyer, author, journalist and co-host of the #Autonocast. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 272 of Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 271 / PodCast 2 71 Summary of 5th Summit, Alain Kornhauser & Jerry He
F. Fishkin, June 8, "From the people living in Trenton's Donnelly Homes, to Trenton Central High, to Princeton University, there were lessons to be learned at the 5th annual Smart Driving Cars Summit. CARTS Mobility executive director Jerry He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin to discuss the progress. (video by www.DanielProductions.tv)."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 6 9 / PodCast 2 6 9 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 26, "Smart Driving Cars (episode 269) Did government car ratings take a wrong turn? The star rating system for new cars doesn't offer the protections it should. That's the view of consultant and "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for episode 269 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus... another self driving promise from Elon Musk, the Smart Driving Cars Summit and more.."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 268 / PodCast 268 [03298565%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=%2Br%2B%2BcuVyaXA8eEUXq6Rbu01J6CKWMYnx8W%2FoXpKgeQE%3D&reserved=0) w/Bob Kacergis, CCO, Momentum Dynamics
F. Fishkin, May 15, "Wireless electric vehicle charging can make autonomous mobility services more affordable for all. How? Momentum Dynamics Chief Commercial Officer Bob Kacergis explains on episode 268 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..Oshkosh, Torc Robotics, Trenton Moves and more."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 67 / PodCast 267 [1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=YDc%2FZpacPCqXLCmRsGqF%2Fmp03J89VIvKU9vX24J8Q3M%3D&reserved=0) ### F. Fishkin, May 7, "The Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit is less than a month away, focused on making mobility for all a reality through Trenton Moves. Plus Tesla says Autopilot is achieving big results in improving vehicle safety. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more in episode 267 of Smart Driving Cars." SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 66 / PodCast 2 66 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, April 28, "Germany has given the green light for no hands on the wheel mobility. What does it mean? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for that...plus Waymo, Tesla, Ford, Argo and more."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 65 / PodCast 2 65 w/Jim Nicholas, CEO, Uniphy
F. Fishkin, April 23, "Designing the robotaxi rider experience. Uniphy CEO Jim Nicholas is forging partnerships to help transform consumer experiences with vehicles and more. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Tesla, Trenton and more."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 264 / PodCast 2 64
F. Fishkin, April 15, "Smart Driving Cars episode 264: Massive Robotaxi Move by #Musk and #Tesla? Elon Musk is saying Tesla will make a massive move into robotaxis. And what about his attempt to buy Twitter? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin weigh in on that...plus Argo AI coming to Greenville, South Carolina and Cruise expands Walmart deliveries in Arizona. That and more on episode 264 of Smart Driving Cars. Tune in and subscribe."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 63 / PodCast 2 [611029%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=He6AoD43Pt7pH0fcuNhYN8L0iQik1no0XrT9ch%2BsUI4%3D&reserved=0) w/Henry Posner III'77 Ferroequinalogist F. Fishkin, April 7, "Mobility takes on a different meaning for Ukrainian refugees. Henry Posner II and his Railroad Development Corporation has been helping to transport many into Germany. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for episode 263 of Smart Driving Cars. That plus GM Cruise, Aurora, VW, Qualcomm & more."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 6 / PodCast 2 62 w/ Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, March 30, "The latest from the Symposium on the Future Networked Car, the UK investigates laws for driverless cars, cars....politics and Russia, Tesla and some big news from Waymo. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for Smart Driving Cars episode 262."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 6 / PodCast 2 61 w/ Sven Beiker & Dick Mudge
F. Fishkin, March 25, "Where autonomous mobility vehicles operate matters. But why does too. And Mercedes takes a leap. That and more as Sven Beiker of Silicon Valley Mobility and Dick Mudge of Compass Transportation join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 261 of Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 60 / PodCast 2 60
F. Fishkin, March 21, "Apple reportedly has dissolved its car team and why is Alain now eating at McDonald's? Episode 260 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin has that plus GM, Cruise, Tesla, Aurora, Polestar and more."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 5 9 / PodCast 259 w/ Mo ElShenawy, EVP of Engineering, Cruise
F. Fishkin, March 9, "Cruise, with GM and Honda as operating partners, has gone truly driverless in San Francisco and is seeking permission to eliminate steering wheels in the Cruise Origin. EVP of Engineering Mo ElShenawy joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for a special edition of Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 5 8 / PodCast 25 8 w/ Michael Sena, Publisher, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, March 3, "How will electric vehicle charging stations make money? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena poses that question and many more on episode 258 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus Ford creates a distinct EV car business, an update on NJ progress and more. Tune in and subscribe...."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 5 7 / PodCast 257 w/ Cliff Winston & Marc Scribner
F. Fishkin, Feb. 25, "So what about these reports and opinion pieces casting doubt on the future of autonomous mobility? The Brookings Institution's Cliff Winston and Reason Foundation's Marc Scribner join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to slice and dice. Plus GM Cruise, VW and more.."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 56 / PodCast 256 w/Danny Shapiro, VP Automotive, NVIDIA
F. Fishkin, Feb. 18, "With Jaguar Land Rover signing on to partner with NVIDIA for advanced driver assistance and autonomous capabilities in all of their vehicles starting in 2025, what will the collaboration mean? NVIDIA's VP for Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Waymo, VW, Trenton and more."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 2 55 / PodCast 255 w/Brad Templeton
F. Fishkin, Feb. 11, "The engaging debate over disengagements. In episode 255 of Smart Driving Cars, Forbes.com Sr. Transportation Contributor Brad Templeton engages with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser over the path to the future of autonomous mobility. The latest data on disengagements from companies testing self driving vehicles in California, Tesla, Cruise, Waymo and New Jersey begins funding Trenton MOVES...are part of the spirited discussion with co-host Fred Fishkin."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 254, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 5 4 w/Alex Roy
F. Fishkin, Feb 4, "Why Self Driving Isn't a Race, It's a Game. That's what Alex Roy, Director of Special Projects at Argo AI writes at www.groundtruthautonomy.com.Alex joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest Smart Driving Cars for a wide ranging discussion on that plus the latest on Trenton Moves, FreightWaves, Tesla, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota and more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 253, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 5 3 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Jan. 27, "The Federal Trade Commission looks to level the tech playing field...but "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena has some words of warning. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo and more on Episode 253 of Smart Driving Cars.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 252, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 5 2 / Michael Krauss, Prof. of Law Emeritus & Alexandra Mueller, IIHS
F. Fishkin, Jan. 20, "The IIHS has announced it will rate vehicle partial automation systems. Spearheading is research scientist Alexandra Mueller who joins us. And Professor Emeritus Michael Krauss from the George Mason University School of Law on the manslaughter charges leveled in a Tesla autopilot case in California. Episode 252 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin."
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 2 51 / A. Kornhauser: Making it Happen: Trenton MOVES... a Framework for...
F. Fishkin, Jan. 15, "In this special edition of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and his presentation: Making it Happen: Trenton Moves-a framework for the deployment of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high quality transportation. The focus is on providing autonomous mobility in a place where there is real need. A first. Join the effort." Link to 250 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
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July 16, 2022 MAY MOBILITY CLOSES $111 MILLION SERIES C FUNDING, BEGINS PRELIMINARY DEVELOPMENT ON TOYOTA'S NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY PLATFORM Press release, July 12,"May Mobility, a leader in the development and deployment of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, today closed a $111 million Series C round of funding. Additionally, the company plans to continue to pursue its deployment programs using the Toyota Sienna Autono-MaaS vehicle platform while beginning development on another vehicle design centered around mobility, Toyota's e-Palette, signaling the next potential milestone as it seeks new ways to bring equitable mobility solutions to the masses...." Read more
Hmmmm... Hopefully this will enable May Mobility to take seriously Trenton MOVES and other MOVES-style deployment initiatives in New Jersey and beyond. Alain July 9, 2022
U.S. agency probing self-driving Cruise car crash in California
D. Shepardson, July 7, "The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened a special investigation into a recent crash of a Cruise self-driving vehicle in California that resulted in minor injuries, the agency said on Thursday.
The auto safety agency did not identify the specific crash, but a Cruise vehicle operating in driverless autonomous mode was involved in a crash involving minor injuries on June 3 in San Francisco, according to a report filed with the California Department of Motor Vehicles. ..." Read more
Hmmmm... The police report indicates that the Cruise vehicle stopped while making a protected left turn, yielding to avoid being T-boned by a speeding Prius that might run its red. Instead the Prius changed to its left turn lane and broadsided the Cruise vehicle. I can't wait to see the Cruise 360 video of that crash. Hopefully the Prius' insurance company will reimburse the Federal Government for its expenses incurred in its special investigation of the crash that it caused. Alain June 11, 2022 THE DISPATCHER
Princeton Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit June 24, M. Sena "THE DISPATCHER, July 2022
IN THIS ISSUE
Princeton Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit ...........
Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility for Everyone .......................................................2
Dispatch Central................................................................9
Someone lit a fire under NHTSA .......................................9
The Economist: Right analysis, wrong solution..............12
Musings of a Dispatcher: Eyes on the Back Story...........15
The evolution of digital maps and ADAS........................15
Digital Maps for the Vehicle – 1970-2022 ......................24 ...
Hmmmm... Another great edition and very well written summary of the 5th Summit. Alain June 18, 2022
NHTSA Releases Initial Data on Safety Performance of Advanced Vehicle Technologies
June 15, Press release, "Today, as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation's efforts to increase roadway safety and encourage innovation, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published the initial round of data it has collected through its Standing General Order issued last year and initial accompanying reports summarizing this data.
The SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems summary report is available here, while the SAE Levels 3-5 automated driving systems summary report is available here. Going forward, NHTSA will release data updates monthly..." Read more
Hmmmm... This is a good start; however, as NHTSA repeats many times, this is just a start and there are many "data limitations". The most severe may well be the possibility of substantial "sampling bias", the most severe of which is that each OEM sourced the reported data very differently. That makes the data between OEMs incomparable.
Also unreported is any measure that would enable a "crash rate" for an OEM to be determined. One only has a numerator value but no denominator value.
Finally, 392 crashes of "Level 2" cars were reported during the "10" month period of July 2021 and May 15, 2022. About 12 million vehicles are involved in traffic crashes every year among the 283 million vehicles that operate in the US. Assuming any one vehicle is unlikely to be involved in more than one crash per year, it means that each vehicle, on average is involved in 12M/283M = 0.0424 crashes per year. Thus, if these ADAS cars were involved in crashes at the average rate, and had their ADAS on all the time, the 500 vehicle crashes per year contained in these data would expect to be generated from a fleet of only about 11,800 vehicles (or 0.0042% of the vehicles ("everything being equal", ADAS on all the time.).
Consequently, either, ...
- These system outrageously reduce crash probabilities, and/or
- maybe some, but we're probably not much luckier.
- very few of the cars in use during that "10" month period had Level 2 capabilities, and/or
- unfortunately, the VIN number doesn't identify these cars and only Tesla announces how many sold (I may have missed the reportings)
- very few of the drivers of those cars rarely engaged the Level 2 features, and/or
- likely. Only Tesla releases data on the utilization of its level 2 features but does so only in aggregate terms that don't allow for correction of sampling bias associated with engagement in "easy" driving conditions versus "challenging" driving conditions.
- enormous under counting
- likely, only Tesla has the opportunity to either "know all" or sample effectively because of their OtA monitoring of its vehicles. Everyone else has conveniently kept their heads in the sand. Mercedes didn't report any; however, during that period I think my Intelligent Cruise Control and Lane Centering were engaged when I hit a deer. Mercedes must not have been watching me, I didn't report it and I didn't get the memo that informed me to do anything.
Anyway. It is a start and at least to me the numbers are not startling.
What needs improvement is sourcing of the incidents. Maybe OtA should be mandated. At minimum, the VIN should specify the existence of theses capabilities. Then normal police reportings can begin to "automatically" access the "black box event recorders" (see also Accident data recorder and NHTSA) that are in most cars today. Unfortunately, privacy concerns makes this not-easy. So here we are. It wont be easy to do much better, but we should continue to try.
What the data do point out is that a substantial number of the crashes involved the rear ending of a stationary object. I have pointed out repeatedly that the source code of these systems explicitly disregard stationary objects in the lane ahead. Justifying this explicit process is that current sensors incur unacceptable false positives when trying to determine if sufficient headroom exists under detected stationary object in the lane ahead. Thus, to avoid braking in response to these rare false positives, stationary objects in the lane ahead are all assumed to be "pass under-able".
As one drives, one encounters many stationary objects in the lane ahead. These are readily sensed and precisely located ahead. Readily sensed are overpasses, signs, tree canopies, traffic lights, ... all of which can usually be readily passed under. (As can vehicles ahead that come to rest in vehicle-follower mode. These are not disregarded because one is in vehicle-follower mode.)
But when one is in vehicle-leader mode and one encounters a stationary object ahead, I believe, most, if not all "Level 2" systems disregard that object and assume the car can pass underneath. So if you are in vehicle leader mode and come over the crest of a hill to be confronted with a stopped object ahead, your system will disregard that object. Similarly, if the vehicle that you are following changes lanes forcing you to become a leader, any stationary object ahead will be disregarded. Alain
June 11, 2022
3 minute Promo: https://youtu.be/q5Ov_dPuRV4
The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
Dr. Steve Still's Tribute to Heywood Patterson
S. Still, June 3, "... Heywood Patterson, 67, He often drove members of his church to Tops, helping them load their groceries into his car and then taking them home. "That's what he did all the time," Deborah Patterson said. "That's what the loved to do". ..." Watch Video
Hmmmm... A principal reason for "Trenton MOVES"-like deployments is to do what Heywood Patterson "loved to do" for the many. Alain May 28, 2022
The Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles
M. Sena, May 24, "New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) all around the world have created a separate and unequal set of standards for vehicle safety operating in parallel with the Type Approval processes in most countries and the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and their equivalents in other countries. One standard is enough. In this month's the lead article, I look at why this has happened, why it is not a good idea, and what should be done to correct the situation.
There is no Musings in this month's issue. Instead, I have put my musings energies to work in Dispatch Central. You can see the topics below. The section ends with a notable quote from the CEO of Stellantis on the topic of battery electric vehicles.
Enjoy your June issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I have written or you just want to let me know that you got something out of reading it. ..." Read more
Hmmmm... Every month, great reading. Enjoy! Alain May 15, 2022
From pricing carbon to fighting opioid abuse, ORFE showcased top senior projects A. Nathans, May 11, "When Serena Ren presented her senior thesis on using machine learning for art appraisals last month, she hoped to see her friend, Joyce Luo, present her thesis on fighting opioid addiction. But since all students in the Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering present their theses in parallel sessions, this was impossible.
But on May 4, Ren and Luo finally got to see each other's presentations in a classroom in Sherrerd Hall, thanks to the department's first-ever event in which selected students present their thesis work to the whole department...." Read more
Hmmmm... I'm so proud! Hopefully we'll be able to release the video so you can enjoy. Keep trying the link:
Princeton ORFE Class of 2022 Senior Thesis Symposium "Best 8"
- Isabelle Grosgogeat "Impact of women and minority ownership on private equity"
- Joyce Luo "Equitable data-driven resource allocation to fight the opioid pandemic"
- Caroline Noonan "The impact of carbon price on power plant dispatch, production costs, and total emissions"
- Hari Ramakrishnan "Lighting up dark pools"
- Serena Ren "Automatic art appraisals"
- Mitchell Stroebell "A comparison of advanced player statistics for the NBA"
- Jack Woll "Pairs trading and volatility"
- Andre Yin "Equity trading strategies based on macroeconomic event analysis"
May 7, 2022
PAVE VIRTUAL PANEL "AVS AND PUBLIC GOOD: TRENTON MOVES"
PAVE, May 4, "Autonomous vehicle technologies offer incredible potential: they could make our highways safer, they could offer new mobility options for people who can't drive, and they could help create a more equitable transportation system for those who are not well-served by our current system.
During the month of May, we are highlighting places where AVs are in use — today — being deployed, tested, and used for public good. We want to look at examples of the technology being used to serve food deserts, to expand access to rural communities, to offer new accessibility options, and more.
We are starting with the Trenton MOVES initiative, which is the first large-scale urban transit system in America based entirely on self-driving shuttles. The shuttles, which carry four to eight passengers, serve traditionally underserved Trenton neighborhoods, where 70% of households have limited access to a single automobile, or no access at all. Our panelists will detail the program, describing how it works, the results it has achieved, and their vision for the future......" Read more
Hmmmm... Very nice. Be sure to watch video 😁 and see ZoomCast 267 Alain
April 30, 2022
NJDOT Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti and the Trenton NJ MOVES Program
P. Keller, April 29, "New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton....." Read more
Hmmmm... Very nice. 😁 April 23, 2022
Knight Foundation April 21, "CARTS Executive Director Jerry He explains to the audience at #CoMotionMiami that:
Hmmmm... Yup! See ZoomCast265 Alain April 15, 2022
Musk promises 'dedicated robotaxi' with futuristic look from Tesla H. Jin, April 6, "Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) will make a "dedicated" self-driving taxi that will "look futuristic," Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Thursday, without giving a timeframe.
The 50-year-old billionaire, wearing a black cowboy hat and sunglasses, made the comments at the opening of Tesla's $1.1 billion factory in Texas, which is home to its new headquarters.
"Massive scale. Full self-driving. There's going to be a dedicated robotaxi," Musk told a large crowd at the factory...." Read more
Hmmmm... Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma's house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.
Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn't have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma's house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to "Massive Scale" scale and Massive Profitability.
RoboTaxis' evolution to "Massive Scale" is turning out to be different. Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn't seem to be working sociologically for Waymo. The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality of life. Nice for selfies, but not much more.
Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. "Safe" is "safe", but "high-quality" is relative to what one now has readily available. For the rich, that's where they've already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently, the service is used primarily for taking selfies.
For those that don't have their own car for whatever reason (can't drive, don't want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful. Absolutely trivial for a taxi service to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use.
Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving "Massive Scale" then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;
- those that don't already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.
- those for which his taxi can substantially change their lives for the better.
These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton's 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton's 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year's 365.25.
They'll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your taxis to go viral! You'll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, .....
That's the natural road to "Massive Scale" for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.
"Massive Scale" starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain
March 31, 2022
Taking our next step in the City by the Bay The Waymo Team, March 30, "This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer to get their morning coffee and go to work. Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we've begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees. They now join the thousands of Waymo One riders we've been serving in Arizona, making fully autonomous driving technology part of their daily lives...." Read more
Hmmmm... Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and fundamental expression of confidence in your technology. Please come to New Jersey where we are certain that you can actually deliver "Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility" that will substantially improve the quality-of-life of many by transforming affordable housing into affordable living and more.
Let's look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers...
Trenton:
Population: 90,000. PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000 IntraTrenton: 150,000 PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles
Operational Productivity: VehicleTrips/Day: 50 Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2 PersonTrips/VehicleDay: 100 PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000
100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)
50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost: Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip Electricity + maintenance + management + ... = $0.57/PersonTrip Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip
New Jersey:
Population: 9+ Million
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles Operational Productivity VehicleTrips/Day: 60 Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5 PersonTrips/VehicleDay: 150 PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000
10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost: Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43 Electricity + maintenance + management ... = $0.57 Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00 Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)
10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:
10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year 90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value proposition could have the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)
Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year
Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn't be completely ignoring me. I guess I'm missing something. Maybe someone else will call me? 😎 Alain
Moving Forward with Trenton MOVES K. Pyle, Feb. 9, "Dr. Alain Kornhauser's vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement..." Read more
Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain
Smart Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving Feb. 11, "The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of the event held on February 9th." Read more
Hmmmm... Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain. February 4, 2022
Trenton MOVES W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,"We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.
Originally announced by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor's Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.
The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.
The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. on in the Trenton Central High School auditorium. Members of the press will be invited to attend. ...." Read more
Hmmmm... Another real milestone.
The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals. Next comes the 5th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ. The Summit will be focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES' mobility objectives (Safety, Equity, Affordability, Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey.
Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. 😁 Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
alaink@princeton.edu
609-980-1427 (c)