10.27 - Wake Up Call

February 09, 2022Newsletter archive →

July 30, 2022

SmartDrivingCars eLetter

GM's Cruise robotaxi unit drives deeper into the red

Reuters, July 26, "General Motors Co (GM.N) has lost nearly $5 billion since 2018 trying to build a robotaxi business in San Francisco, and now as the automaker's Cruise unit starts charging for rides, the losses are accelerating.

GM said on Tuesday it lost $500 million on Cruise during the second quarter - more than $5 million a day - as it began charging for rides in a limited area of San Francisco. ... that may be the case for the last quarter, but the chart below from GM's 6/30/222 10-Q Shows ($800M) for the last 6 months or $4.38/day when divided by 182.625 Whew!😅...

Cruise's costly effort to transform autonomous driving technology from a long-term research project to a profit-spinning business comes as investors are backing away from riskier bets on technology, and reassessing how soon robot vehicles of any kind will be deployed in large scale on public roads.

Shares of autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR.O), for example, are down 80% for the year to date. Shares of robo-trucking company TuSimple Holdings Inc (TSP.O) have lost more than 70% of their value. Some automakers, including Ford Motor Co (F.N), have scaled back investments in automated vehicle units, or taken on partners to share the costs....

Cruise's losses for the first six months of the year deepened to $900 million from $600 million during the same period in 2021 - when Cruise was not charging for rides. Higher compensation costs to keep staff on board after putting aside plans for an IPO were one factor in the results, GM executives said.

Chief Executive Mary Barra said on Tuesday she is still bullish on Cruise, and reaffirmed a forecast that the unit could generate $50 billion a year in revenue from automated vehicle services and technology by 2030. Read more

Hmmmm... Nice optimism. The source of the reality check above comes from GM's 6/30/222 10-Q. Start reading from page 41. then on page 43:

Whoa! The only nice thing that can be imagined is by assuming that they've had essentially zero revenue, the operating costs have "only" been $800M for the last 6 months. That is non-small.

I'd like to suggest that the strategy of trying to create a profitable driverless mobility service for folks that already have 2 or more cars in their garage, have excellent public transit service or travel on expense accounts when wanting to go to between the airport and "downtown" may not be the wisest way to launch such a mobility service. There is little opportunity to be substantially better or even equivalent to what those potential customers already have. Little opportunity to get loyal and repeat customers. The focus to date has been too heavily weighted on getting the technology to work for folks who already have more mobility options than they know what to do with. Great for click-bait; challenging for the 10-Q. What must Waymo's 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?

Capturing loyal and repeat customers is really tough when the competition is excellent and entrenched. While pricing can be high, volume is almost non-existent even with nominal pricing. Except for the novelty, the marketplace in the Chandlers and SFs is essentially non-existent. To date those markets have been quiet, at best. What must Waymo's 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?

It astonishes me that to date none of the leading driverless companies have spent any money trying to serve the needs of folks that don't own cars, aren't traveling using someone else's money, nor have access to a good public transit system focused on their mobility needs.

These folks definitely can't pay as much for a ride as those that are being chased by Cruise & Waymo, but there are more of them. Moreover, its almost trivial to provide them with a mobility option that is substantially better than what they have today for many, if not most, of their daily personTrips.

This is the market that we've found in New Jersey; in Trenton & Mercer County, Perth Amboy & Middlesex County and Patterson & Passaic County. We haven't even begun looking in Newark, Camden, Atlantic City and the rest of New Jersey.

The excuse seems to have been that it would be too expensive to deal with NJ's bad weather, even though, we've made it clear that New Jersey is not interested in a 365.25 days/yr. mobility solution. We'd be more than pleased with a 350 days/yr. operation. New Jersey has more than 350 good days a year. We aren't so entitled that we can't wait for the hurricane to blow through, the snow to be shoveled or the fog to lift before we go about our normal business. We enjoy the "snow day" at home. We are convinced that is actually easier and cheaper to capture recurring and loyal NJ customers.

The rule-of-thumb for a Trenton-MOVES style operation is: a vehicle needs to serve at least 100 personTrips/day. With slightly better ride-sharing and time-of-day pricing, one might be able to get to 150 personTrips/day. To cover a fleet of 100 vehicles, ridership needs to be about 10k to 15k personTrips/day. This kind of utilization leads to per personTrip capitalization costs of less than $1/personTrip for vehicles costing upwards of $150k @ interest rates upward of 7.5%. That is to say, $1/personTrip readily covers the vehicle capital costs even at moderate scales.

Given that trips on average are less than five miles, vehicle operating costs are less than $1/personTrip.

Management costs are largely fixed. With volume the per personTrip burden decrease enormously, and can't be more than $0.50/personTrip.

Break-even fare is thus roughly $2.50/personTrip.

An average market fare of $3.50/personTrip delivers a profit of >$1.00/personTrip, >$100/vehicle-day.

A fleet of 100 vehicles delivers a profit >$10k/day, >$3.0M/yr. in the Trenton ODD serving 10k personTrips/day.

From where do these 10k personTrips/day materialize?

Essentially all the riders of NJ Transit rail would love a simple reliable convenient way to get to & from the train. By on-demand service within the community around the train station, loyalty upwards of 80% could be achieved for anyone wanting to go to NYC or within walking distance to any other NJ train station. For Trenton that represents a marketplace of 8,000 personTrips/day that currently drive to & from the station every day and those that currently don't use the train that would if it was easy and reliable to them to get to AND from the station, when they wanted to get to and from there. Half of the 10k would easily come from serving the Trenton Train Station.

Trenton Central HS has 1,800 students. More than 1,500 live more than a 10 minute walk to the TCHS. Truancy is proportional to how far a student has to walk to school. Trenton MOVES could readily serve 1,250 of these students every day. That's 1/4 of the needed 10k.

We only need another 2.5k personTrips and we haven't even begun dealing with getting people to & from work in Trenton, doctors, shopping visiting friends, etc. needed by the 70% of Trenton households who have access to one or zero cars. 100 vehicles serving 10k personTrips/day making >3.0M/year @ an average fare of $3.50/personTrip is just the start of a profitable business. Employing 200 vehicles costing at most $100k at interest rates of less than 7.5% serving 150 personTrips/day at fares of $3.00/personTrip makes way more than $5M per year.

Expanding Trenton MOVES throughout Mercer County giving the opportunity to increase average fare (because of the longer personTrips) to maybe $5/personTrip keeping utilization @ 150 personTrips/vehicle-day of a fleet of 1,000 vehicles and doing a little better on interest rates and cap costs can lead to profits of >$10M/year for Trenton/Mercer MOVES. There are at least 10 replications of Trenton/Mercer MOVES that could be done in NJ by 2030 utilizing a fleet of at least 10,000 vehicles leading to a profit of >$100M/year.

This kind of success leads to having many more people leave their cars at home and frequenting NJ-MOVES as their mobility system. This could lead to a NJ-Moves fleet of >100,000 vehicles is generating a profit of >$1B.

If Mary expects this to be achieved by 2030 and replicated in the 50 other states (on average) as the Universe she expects to exist in 2030, I'm hopeful but skeptical. My point is, that starting with Trenton MOVES as the big bang that achieved her vision seems to me to be a lot clearer that where Cruise/Waymo have chosen to try to create a Big Bang. Seems as if she and Kyle should be taking Trenton and New Jersey much more seriously. Please call me! Alain

SmartDrivingCars

ZoomCast 277/ PodCast 277 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, July 30, "A look at cities & mobility, turmoil at VW, the cash problem at Cruise & more. "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena joins Alain Kornhauser & Fred Fishkin for another spirited discussion on episode 277 of Smart Driving Cars."

Technical support provided by: https://www.cartsmobility.com

The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative

Mobility Implications of America's Anti-city Legacy

M. Sena, July 30, "The tragedy of transport planning in the U.S. is that there continues to be a belief that the reason there is low transit ridership is the car industry, which, in a conspiracy with politicians and land speculators, have made mass transit unsuitable for doing the job of moving people from where they are to where they want to go. With the exception of NYC and to a certain extent Boston and Washington, DC, American cities have been built when they were necessary, but with the objective of housing their residents in the type of dwelling they preferred, that is, a house on a piece of land that are both as large as the owner can afford. This has resulted in low densities and, therefore, lower than optimal numbers of riders to support public transit..." Read more

Hmmmm... In simple terms, dense cities are expensive. For the super-rich they are great. They can afford big chunks of it and have one or more dachas surrounded by nature. For the poor, it's the slums that are close to the factories. (I think of my students who "intern @ JP Morgan", some/most do become super rich and stay in Manhattan, most/some "move to Jersey and ride NJT". (or drive, or, now with the remnants of COVID work from home, or at small local clusters.)

The post-Covid Smart City may well be no City, certainly no more Manhattan. Do people really want to live while trapped in those towers? Nice to visit. View is great, but can you really live there. That's why folks in NYC continue to move to Jersey (The Pandemic's Impact on NYC Migration Patterns) or Texas or ...

The concentration of people in cities was a move to concentrate workforces to scale processes that required concentrated workforces. If future processes scale without the need to concentrate workers because of communications or cheaper more efficient ways to bring smaller groups of people together, the smart city of the future may well be much broader and way less tall. Alain

Electric cars to create digital map of Dubai for first driverless taxis

Staff, July 24, "A digital map is to be created of Dubai to pave the way for the first driverless taxis, in a major step forward for the emirate's autonomous transport strategy.

Two Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicles, equipped with sensors and cameras, are to be used ahead of the wider introduction of high-tech taxis next year.

Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority said the public-private partnership with US company Cruise was the "first of its kind worldwide".

The RTA said the Cruise vehicles would initially be used in Jumeirah and driven by specialist drivers..." Read more

Hmmmm... I repeated this one because of this issue's headline story. I'm assuming that the UAE will be paying for this effort and it will show up as revenue for Cruise in GM's Form 10-Q for quarterly period ending September 30, 2022. GM's 6/30/222 10-Q

I'm really jealous. How do I get New Jersey to get in line to begin a similar initiative. Even though we're not as credit worthy, we do have customers who could fundamentally benefit from the technology and are right here in the US of A. eMail me!!! (before Baidu 😁) Alain

Mobileye Launches EyeQ Kit: New SDK for Advanced Safety and Driver-Assistance Systems

Press release, July 5, "Mobileye, an Intel company, has launched the EyeQ Kit™ – its first software development kit (SDK) for the EyeQ® system-on-chip that powers driver-assistance and future autonomous technologies for automakers worldwide. Built to leverage the powerful and highly power-efficient architecture of the upcoming EyeQ®6 High and EyeQ®Ultra processors, EyeQ Kit allows automakers to utilize Mobileye's proven core technology, while deploying their own differentiated code and human-machine interface tools on the EyeQ platform.

How it Works:..." Read more ...

Hmmmm... Very nice. With this kind of cooperation between Intel and MobilEye, Is Intel really going to spin off MobilEye in this market? Alain

Trenton & PerthAmboy MOVES: Commencing the Deployment of autonomousTaxis throughout New Jersey

A. Kornhauser, J. He, "Presentation made @ TRB ARTS2022 Conference in Garden Grove, CA, July 18, 2022." Read more ...

Hmmmm... See CARTSMobility.com Nice. 😁 Alain

Las Vegas startup launches driverless car rental service

S. Hemmersmeier, July 22, "Las Vegas-based startup Halo.Car launched a transportation service this week that allows customers to rent cars piloted by a remote driver, operating the vehicle from Halo.Car's office.

The service, which is temporarily free, is in its testing phase and only available in the downtown Las Vegas area. The remotely driven cars will also have a safety driver inside, in case any problems arise...." Read more

Hmmmm... Attendant on-board, whew! Free.. OK, startup mentality.

Remotely driven.😕 Needs continuity with minimal latency. Tough enough using dedicated wiring within a vehicle. Wirelessly over shared infrastructure. I'm skeptical and not a fan. 🙁 Alain

This small city ditched its buses. Its public Uber-like service has been a big hit

N. de la Canal, July 19, "This small city ditched its buses. Its public Uber-like service has been a big hit...

"For $1.6 million, we're providing well over twice as many trips and covering 100 percent of the city with a system that picks you up within 15 to 20 minutes of your request, versus a bus that was only running once an hour."...

A previous version of this story said the shuttle service gave about 37,000 rides a week compared with 26,000 bus rides under the old system. Actually, the numbers are 3,700 and 1,400 trips, respectively...." Read more

Hmmmm... Yup, Uber/Lyft is much better than buses in many, if not most, places. The problem is that its revenue of ($1.50 x 3,700 x 52 =) $288,600/year is 10% of its $1.6M cost of operation (or $1.9M depending on how the farebox revenue is allocated). Not at all pretty (but more than twice as pretty as the service using buses).

It remains a serious challenge to deliver affordable mobility when one needs to pay a chauffeur/attendant. Alain

GM, Ford seek U.S. OK to deploy self-driving vehicles without steering wheels

D. Shepardon, July 20, "General Motors (GM.N) and Ford Motor (F.N) have asked U.S. auto safety regulators to grant exemptions to deploy a limited number of self-driving vehicles without human controls like steering wheels and brake pedals.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on Wednesday published the separate petitions and opened them for public comment for 30 days.

NHTSA has authority to grant petitions to allow a limited number of vehicles to operate on U.S. roads without required human controls. Both automakers want to deploy up to 2,500 vehicles a year, the maximum allowed under the law, for ride sharing and delivery services. Neither seek approval to sell self-driving vehicles to consumers...." Read more

Hmmmm... This should be an absolute no-brainer for NHTSA. 2,500 vehicles per year... that's peanuts and won't put a dent into anything. There are more than 250M (100,000x more) registered road vehicles with steering wheels. One can't get enough experience to measure anything unless one has more than a few.

Forget about marketing any dent into safety, equity, environment or market acceptance unless one has at least this number of entities available. McKinsey claims that more than $300B has been invested in driving technology that doesn't need a steering wheel. That investment deserves to be able to demonstrate that it works and deserves to have an opportunity to deliver market and societal returns that begin to recoup that investment.

Allowing these responsible entities that have invested so much to begin by building a minuscule number of special purpose vehicles should be an absolute no-brainer. None of these are going to be sold to individuals.

Such restrictions serve no measurable public good. C'mon NHTSA! just say yes. Monitor the progress. You can readily recall all and shut them down should the need arise. Alain

Tesla driver using Autopilot kills motorcyclist, prompting another NHTSA investigation

A Hawkins, July 27, "A motorcyclist in Draper, Utah, was killed early Sunday morning when a Tesla driver using Autopilot slammed into the rear of his bike. It is the latest crash involving Tesla's advanced driver-assist system to draw scrutiny from federal investigators at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

The incident occurred just after 1AM Sunday on southbound Interstate 15, according to local reports. The motorcyclist, who has not been identified, was traveling southbound near the Salt Lake and Utah County lines when the Tesla approached from behind. The Utah Department of Public Safety said the Tesla driver collided with the back of the motorcycle, throwing the motorcyclist to the ground and killing him instantly...." Read more

Hmmmm... Needs to be investigated. Tesla should have and should make-public the data leading up to the crash. The circumstances leading to this crash need to be understood by all so as to best avert this kind of tragedy to reoccur. Alain

Tesla expands its own insurance based on real-time driver data to two more states – now in 10 states

F. Lambert, July 26, "....Tesla updated its website to note that its real-time data insurance product is now available to customers in the states of Utah and Maryland.

The addition makes for a total of 10 states with Tesla Insurance based on real-time driving data:

Arizona

Colorado

Illinois

Maryland

Nevada

Ohio

Oregon

Texas

Utah

Virginia

Tesla still hasn't been able to get the full product adopted in California, but the automaker recently started to let people who get Tesla Insurance in California use the Driver Safety Score for "educational purposes."

Recently, Tesla filings for its insurance products have surfaced in Florida and New Jersey – indicating that the automaker is looking to expand in those states soon.

In October of last year, CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla Insurance is aiming to be "in most states" by the end of 2022. The regulatory landscape for insurance is complex and varies state by state. Therefore, Tesla has a lot of work to do to launch in any new state, but the effort appears to be paying off with many new markets being added in the last few months...." Read more

Hmmmm... Elon has the data to be able to most reliably compute expected liability for any individual. Insurance pricing is all about estimating expected liability which is data driven. Elon has the best data, so he should be best able to price.

If your rates are higher, you won't get the business. If your rates are lower, your profitability is questionable. Matching his prices isn't effective because you don't have his loyalty. The competition can't win without losing. Sorry. Data rules. Alain

Calendar of Upcoming Events

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Register now for BTR 4 – Free & Fully Online August 4 & 5, 2022!

Previous SmartDrivingCarsZoomCast/PodCasts

These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com

https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provided technical support

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 276/ PodCast 276 w/R. Mudge, President, Compass Transportation

F. Fishkin, July 25, "Following the TRB gathering in California, what was accomplished? Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge joins us for a look. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, Baidu, Zoox & more. Smart Driving Cars episode 276 with Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin."

Link to 275 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

Recent Highlights of:

July 25, 2022

Baidu unveils autonomous vehicle without steering wheel Reuters, July 16, "China's search engine giant Baidu Inc on Thursday unveiled its new autonomous vehicle (AV) with a detachable steering wheel, with plans to put it to use for its robotaxi service in China next year.

Cost per unit will drop to 250,000 yuan ($37,031.55) for the new model, compared with 480,000 yuan for the previous generation, Baidu said in a statement.

"This massive cost reduction will enable us to deploy tens of thousands of AVs across China," Baidu's chief executive Robin Li said at the Baidu World conference. "We are moving towards a future where taking a robotaxi will be half the cost of taking a taxi today." Read more

Hmmmm... Really?? See video. Where do I buy 10 for immediate delivery to New Jersey with option to buy 100 more by EoY'22 and 1st inline to buy 1,000 more by EoY'23. eMail me!!!

While the design is certainly not ideal for "Trenton MOVES" or "Perth Amboy MOVES" they would be good enough to get started with addressing the "Sociology Challenges" of MOVES-style deployments. And the price is right if this isn't total click-bait. But... that is a really big if. 🙁 Alain

July 16, 2022 MAY MOBILITY CLOSES $111 MILLION SERIES C FUNDING, BEGINS PRELIMINARY DEVELOPMENT ON TOYOTA'S NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY PLATFORM Press release, July 12,"May Mobility, a leader in the development and deployment of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, today closed a $111 million Series C round of funding. Additionally, the company plans to continue to pursue its deployment programs using the Toyota Sienna Autono-MaaS vehicle platform while beginning development on another vehicle design centered around mobility, Toyota's e-Palette, signaling the next potential milestone as it seeks new ways to bring equitable mobility solutions to the masses...." Read more

Hmmmm... Hopefully this will enable May Mobility to take seriously Trenton MOVES and other MOVES-style deployment initiatives in New Jersey and beyond. Alain

July 9, 2022

U.S. agency probing self-driving Cruise car crash in California

D. Shepardson, July 7, "The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened a special investigation into a recent crash of a Cruise self-driving vehicle in California that resulted in minor injuries, the agency said on Thursday.

The auto safety agency did not identify the specific crash, but a Cruise vehicle operating in driverless autonomous mode was involved in a crash involving minor injuries on June 3 in San Francisco, according to a report filed with the California Department of Motor Vehicles. ..." Read more

Hmmmm... The police report indicates that the Cruise vehicle stopped while making a protected left turn, yielding to avoid being T-boned by a speeding Prius that might run its red. Instead the Prius changed to its left turn lane and broadsided the Cruise vehicle. I can't wait to see the Cruise 360 video of that crash. Hopefully the Prius' insurance company will reimburse the Federal Government for its expenses incurred in its special investigation of the crash that it caused. Alain

June 11, 2022

THE DISPATCHER

Princeton Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit June 24, M. Sena "THE DISPATCHER, July 2022

IN THIS ISSUE

Princeton Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit ...........

Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility for Everyone .......................................................2

Dispatch Central................................................................9

Someone lit a fire under NHTSA .......................................9

The Economist: Right analysis, wrong solution ..............12

Musings of a Dispatcher: Eyes on the Back Story...........15

The evolution of digital maps and ADAS ........................15

Digital Maps for the Vehicle – 1970-2022 ......................24 ...

Read more

Hmmmm... Another great edition and very well written summary of the 5th Summit. Alain

June 18, 2022

NHTSA Releases Initial Data on Safety Performance of Advanced Vehicle Technologies

June 15, Press release, "Today, as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation's efforts to increase roadway safety and encourage innovation, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published the initial round of data it has collected through its Standing General Order issued last year and initial accompanying reports summarizing this data.

The SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems summary report is available here, while the SAE Levels 3-5 automated driving systems summary report is available here. Going forward, NHTSA will release data updates monthly..." Read more

Hmmmm... This is a good start; however, as NHTSA repeats many times, this is just a start and there are many "data limitations". The most severe may well be the possibility of substantial "sampling bias", the most severe of which is that each OEM sourced the reported data very differently. That makes the data between OEMs incomparable.

Also unreported is any measure that would enable a "crash rate" for an OEM to be determined. One only has a numerator value but no denominator value.

Finally, 392 crashes of "Level 2" cars were reported during the "10" month period of July 2021 and May 15, 2022. About 12 million vehicles are involved in traffic crashes every year among the 283 million vehicles that operate in the US. Assuming any one vehicle is unlikely to be involved in more than one crash per year, it means that each vehicle, on average is involved in 12M/283M = 0.0424 crashes per year. Thus, if these ADAS cars were involved in crashes at the average rate, and had their ADAS on all the time, the 500 vehicle crashes per year contained in these data would expect to be generated from a fleet of only about 11,800 vehicles (or 0.0042% of the vehicles ("everything being equal", ADAS on all the time.).

Consequently, either, ...

• These systems outrageously reduce crash probabilities, and/or

• maybe some, but we're probably not much luckier.

• very few of the cars in use during that "10" month period had Level 2 capabilities, and/or

• unfortunately, the VIN number doesn't identify these cars and only Tesla announces how many sold (I may have missed the reportings)

• very few of the drivers of those cars rarely engaged the Level 2 features, and/or

• likely. Only Tesla releases data on the utilization of its level 2 features but does so only in aggregate terms that don't allow for correction of sampling bias associated with engagement in "easy" driving conditions versus "challenging" driving conditions.

• enormous undercounting

• likely, only Tesla has the opportunity to either "know all" or sample effectively because of their OtA monitoring of its vehicles. Everyone else has conveniently kept their heads in the sand. Mercedes didn't report any; however, during that period I think my Intelligent Cruise Control and Lane Centering were engaged when I hit a deer. Mercedes must not have been watching me, I didn't report it and I didn't get the memo that informed me to do anything.

Anyway. It is a start and at least to me the numbers are not startling.

What needs improvement is sourcing of the incidents. Maybe OtA should be mandated. At minimum, the VIN should specify the existence of these capabilities. Then normal police reportings can begin to "automatically" access the "black box event recorders" (see also Accident data recorder and NHTSA that are in most cars today. Unfortunately, privacy concerns makes this not-easy. So here we are. It won't be easy to do much better, but we should continue to try.

What the data do point out is that a substantial number of the crashes involved the rear-ending of a stationary object. I have pointed out repeatedly that the source code of these systems explicitly disregard stationary objects in the lane ahead. Justifying this explicit process is that current sensors incur unacceptable false positives when trying to determine if sufficient headroom exists under detected stationary object in the lane ahead. Thus, to avoid braking in response to these rare false positives, stationary objects in the lane ahead are all assumed to be "pass under-able".

As one drives, one encounters many stationary objects in the lane ahead. These are readily sensed and precisely located ahead. Readily sensed are overpasses, signs, tree canopies, traffic lights, ... all of which can usually be readily passed under. (As can vehicles ahead that come to rest in vehicle-follower mode. These are not disregarded because one is in vehicle-follower mode.)

But when one is in vehicle-leader mode and one encounters a stationary object ahead, I believe, most, if not all "Level 2" systems disregard that object and assume the car can pass underneath. So if you are in vehicle leader mode and come over the crest of a hill to be confronted with a stopped object ahead, your system will disregard that object. Similarly, if the vehicle that you are following changes lanes forcing you to become a leader, any stationary object ahead will be disregarded. Alain

June 11, 2022

3 minute Promo: https://youtu.be/q5Ov_dPuRV4

The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit

Summit Preview Tour

Dr. Steve Still's Tribute to Heywood Patterson

S. Still, June 3, "... Heywood Patterson, 67, He often drove members of his church to Tops, helping them load their groceries into his car and then taking them home. "That's what he did all the time," Deborah Patterson said. "That's what the loved to do". ..." Watch Video

Hmmmm... A principal reason for "Trenton MOVES"-like deployments is to do what Heywood Patterson "loved to do" for the many. Alain

May 28, 2022

The Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles

M. Sena, May 24, "New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) all around the world have created a separate and unequal set of standards for vehicle safety operating in parallel with the Type Approval processes in most countries and the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and their equivalents in other countries. One standard is enough. In this month's the lead article, I look at why this has happened, why it is not a good idea, and what should be done to correct the situation.

There is no Musings in this month's issue. Instead, I have put my musings energies to work in Dispatch Central. You can see the topics below. The section ends with a notable quote from the CEO of Stellantis on the topic of battery electric vehicles.

Enjoy your June issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I have written or you just want to let me know that you got something out of reading it. ..." Read more

Hmmmm... Every month, great reading. Enjoy! Alain

May 15, 2022

From pricing carbon to fighting opioid abuse, ORFE showcased top senior projects A. Nathans, May 11, "When Serena Ren presented her senior thesis on using machine learning for art appraisals last month, she hoped to see her friend, Joyce Luo, present her thesis on fighting opioid addiction. But since all students in the Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering present their theses in parallel sessions, this was impossible.

But on May 4, Ren and Luo finally got to see each other's presentations in a classroom in Sherrerd Hall, thanks to the department's first-ever event in which selected students present their thesis work to the whole department...." Read more

Hmmmm... I'm so proud! Hopefully we'll be able to release the video so you can enjoy. Keep trying the link:

Princeton ORFE Class of 2022 Senior Thesis Symposium "Best 8"

• Isabelle Grosgogeat "Impact of women and minority ownership on private equity"

• Joyce Luo "Equitable data-driven resource allocation to fight the opioid pandemic"

• Caroline Noonan "The impact of carbon price on power plant dispatch, production costs, and total emissions"

• Hari Ramakrishnan "Lighting up dark pools"

• Serena Ren "Automatic art appraisals"

• Mitchell Stroebell "A comparison of advanced player statistics for the NBA"

• Jack Woll "Pairs trading and volatility"

• Andre Yin "Equity trading strategies based on macroeconomic event analysis"

May 7, 2022

PAVE VIRTUAL PANEL "AVS AND PUBLIC GOOD: TRENTON MOVES"

PAVE, May 4, "Autonomous vehicle technologies offer incredible potential: they could make our highways safer, they could offer new mobility options for people who can't drive, and they could help create a more equitable transportation system for those who are not well-served by our current system.

During the month of May, we are highlighting places where AVs are in use — today — being deployed, tested, and used for public good. We want to look at examples of the technology being used to serve food deserts, to expand access to rural communities, to offer new accessibility options, and more.

We are starting with the Trenton MOVES initiative, which is the first large-scale urban transit system in America based entirely on self-driving shuttles. The shuttles, which carry four to eight passengers, serve traditionally underserved Trenton neighborhoods, where 70% of households have limited access to a single automobile, or no access at all. Our panelists will detail the program, describing how it works, the results it has achieved, and their vision for the future......" Read more

Hmmmm... Very nice. Be sure to watch video 😁 and see ZoomCast 267 Alain

April 30, 2022

NJDOT Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti and the Trenton NJ MOVES Program

P. Keller, April 29, "New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton....." Read more

Hmmmm... Very nice. 😁 April 23, 2022

Knight Foundation April 21, "CARTS Executive Director Jerry He explains to the audience at #CoMotionMiami that:

Hmmmm... Yup! See ZoomCast265 Alain April 15, 2022

Musk promises 'dedicated robotaxi' with futuristic look from Tesla H. Jin, April 6, "Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) will make a "dedicated" self-driving taxi that will "look futuristic," Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Thursday, without giving a timeframe.

The 50-year-old billionaire, wearing a black cowboy hat and sunglasses, made the comments at the opening of Tesla's $1.1 billion factory in Texas, which is home to its new headquarters.

"Massive scale. Full self-driving. There's going to be a dedicated robotaxi," Musk told a large crowd at the factory...." Read more

Hmmmm... Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma's house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.

Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn't have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma's house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to "Massive Scale" scale and Massive Profitability.

RoboTaxis' evolution to "Massive Scale" is turning out to be different. Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn't seem to be working sociologically for Waymo. The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality of life. Nice for selfies, but not much more.

Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. "Safe" is "safe", but "high-quality" is relative to what one now has readily available. For the rich, that's where they've already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently, the service is used primarily for taking selfies.

For those that don't have their own car for whatever reason (can't drive, don't want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful. Absolutely trivial for an aTaxi service to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use.

Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving "Massive Scale" then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;

• those that don't already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.

• those for which his aTaxi can substantially change their lives for the better.

These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton's 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton's 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year's 365.25.

They'll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your aTaxis to go viral! You'll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, .....

That's the natural road to "Massive Scale" for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.

"Massive Scale" starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain

March 31, 2022

Taking our next step in the City by the Bay The Waymo Team, March 30, "This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer to get their morning coffee and go to work. Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we've begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees. They now join the thousands of Waymo One riders we've been serving in Arizona, making fully autonomous driving technology part of their daily lives...." Read more

Hmmmm... Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and fundamental expression of confidence in your technology. Please come to New Jersey where we are certain that you can actually deliver "Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility" that will substantially improve the quality-of-life of many by transforming affordable housing into affordable living and more.

Let's look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers...

Trenton:

Population: 90,000.
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000
IntraTrenton: 150,000
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles

Operational Productivity:
VehicleTrips/Day: 50
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000

100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)

50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).

Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip
Electricity + maintenance + management + ... = $0.57/PersonTrip
Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip

New Jersey:

Population: 9+ Million

PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million

IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
Operational Productivity
VehicleTrips/Day: 60
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000

10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).

Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43
Electricity + maintenance + management ... = $0.57
Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00
Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)

10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:

10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year
90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value proposition could have the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)

Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year

Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn't be completely ignoring me. I guess I'm missing something. Maybe someone else will call me? 😎 Alain

Moving Forward with Trenton MOVES K. Pyle, Feb. 9, "Dr. Alain Kornhauser's vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement..." Read more

Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain

Smart Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving Feb. 11, "The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of the event held on February 9th." Read more

Hmmmm... Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain. February 4, 2022

Trenton MOVES W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,"We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.

Originally announced by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor's Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.

The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.

The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. on in the Trenton Central High School auditorium. Members of the press will be invited to attend. ...." Read more

Hmmmm... Another real milestone.

The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals. Next comes the 5th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ. The Summit will be focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES' mobility objectives (Safety, Equity, Affordability, Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey.

Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. 😁 Alain

Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD

Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering

Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE

Director, Transportation Program

Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering

229 Sherrerd Hall

Princeton University

Princeton, NJ

alaink@princeton.edu

609-980-1427 (c)