2017-01-05
January 4, 2017
Volume 4, Issue 3
M. Sena, Jan. 5, “In This Issue:
Report from Dispatch Central 1 “…While the 12 million people in the EU who earn their livings directly from the automotive industry are delighted by the news that car sales figures for Novem-ber were up significantly, and it looks like 2016 will be another banner year, there are people in governments doing everything in their power to make both building and owning motorized vehicles economically unviable…” Read more Hmmm…Very interesting!
Autonomous Driving News Apple’s Letter to NHTSA 1 “…The Vehicle Safety Act requires companies to certify vehicles to the FMVSS (Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards) before first sale. But this law applies to new motor vehicles intended for sale to the public, and by implication, by companies that make and sell cars, not companies like Apple that may or may not intend to sell cars. Further, FAST Act2 specifically allows car makers, but not non-car makers, to test on public roads without requiring ex-emptions from FMVSS…Read more “ Hmmm… Very interesting!
What Car Companies Are Doing 2 “…So Uber must have made Volvo a pretty sweet offer when it gets rid of all the drivers with their own cars and has its own fleet of driverless cars…Read more” Hmmm…Very interesting!
Reurbanization or Spreading the Sprawl 3 “…Where do you want to go? My chart below has two opposing scenarios. In the top scenario, we keep doing what we have been doing. In the bottom sce-nario, we try to match policies with desired results. You choose…Read more” Hmmm…Very interesting!
Automotive Navigation-The Future of Traffic Info 4 “…ROUTE GUIDANCE WITHOUT
traffic information is useless..[Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/The%20Dispatcher_5_January%202017.pdf)" Hmmm...Stop right there.
We've known that! The connected world will not get here
until most of road vehicles are part of what will be but a
few competing fleets. It is those fleet owners/managers
that will find it compelling to deploy connectedness
throughout their own fleets. Any meaningful sharing of data
between competing fleets is not in any future that I foresee.
It may even violate anti-trust laws (Unless Putin takes over
the world). Alain
Musings of a Dispatcher – Civilis cogitationes 6 “…I did not see a lot of people cycling to their jobs when I was in Västerås in the early autumn of this year. Like most places in Europe
and the U.S., when cars became affordable for people with even
modest incomes—starting in the 50s in the U.S. and in the 60s in
Europe—it was a delight for workers to get out of the rain and
snow and into their own car. It's the same today in emerging
markets, especially China,.." [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/The%20Dispatcher_5_January%202017.pdf) Hmmm...Our only hope is
"Driverless"! Alain
Tesla introduces first phase of ‘Enhanced Autopilot’: ‘measured and cautious for next several hundred million miles’ – release notes
F. Lambert, Jan 2, “Tesla didn’t want to start the new year on a bad note by missing a deadline with its Autopilot update for new cars to work is its ‘Tesla Vision’ image processing system and while it didn’t bring the system to parity with the last generation Autopilot, the company sort of kept its ‘December 2016’ goal for the release of ‘Enhanced Autopilot’, but it’s only what the automaker is calling the “first phase” of the new features…As we reported yesterday, Tesla started pushing the update to the first 1,000 cars in its fleet. It includes the Autopilot’s Traffic Aware Cruise Control feature, Forward Collision Warning, and Autosteer, but it will only be enabled at “low-speed” as a beta feature…What is particularly interesting is that it’s the first time features inside the vehicles are powered by the new hardware suite and Tesla Vision. …“ Read moreHmmm…Once again, a very nice article by Fred. Alain
MIT study says 3,000 ride-sharing cars could replace every cab in New York City
J. Golson, Jan 2, "All 13,000 taxis in New York City could be
replaced by a fleet of 3,000 ride-sharing cars if used exclusively
for carpooling, according to research published today by MIT's
Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL).
Instead of hailing taxis, passengers that use ride-sharing
services for carpooling may lead to reduced traffic congestion,
pollution, and fuel use.
The CSAIL researchers used public data from NYC taxi rides
published by the University of Illinois to develop the algorithm.
They calculated that 3,000 four-person vehicles traveling to
similar destinations could meet 98 percent of taxi demand in the
city with an average wait time of 2.7 minutes. Perhaps the most
important part of the system is a dynamic repositioning of
vehicles based on real-time demand, which makes the system 20
percent faster. ...." [Read more](http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/2/14147286/mit-research-nyc-taxi-carpool-uber-lyft)Hmmm...Maybe??? If one looks
at the demand for taxis in NYC on a typical day, say on
Wednesday, January 13, 2016, then according to tabulations
performed by my student Keith Gladstone'17, there were 395,090
taxi trips that day that provided mobility to 643,456
customers. The, very relevant, Time-of-Day distributions of
those trips [can be seem in this Link](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Gladstone/Jan13.pdf). At its peak, 5,982 taxicabs
served customers; that's the minimum number of cabs that could
have physically provided that Level-of-Service (LoS) on that
day. So, with casual ridesharing (sharing with 'Strangers'),
it is conceivable that this number could be cut in half if the
demand correlates well-enough spatially and temporally.
However, as is naturally the case, the temporal distribution
of people being served peaks. On this day, the high point had
9,770 people traveling at exactly the same time. An average
occupancy of 3.25 would be needed for 3,000 cabs to serve this
peak. Since max capacity is 4.0, the spatial element of the
demand would need to be VERY well aligned in order to come
anywhere close to this number. So, the implication that, even
with an empty vehicle management algorithm/process that could
move the cabs infinitely fast between where they are made
empty to where they are needed, are very 'challenging'.
However, the article does have a "98%" caveat. If that 98% is
98% of all the day's trips, then from the temporal
distribution, one sees that much of the day, the demand is
substantially less than the peak. Much of the day, the demand
is substantially less than the peak, and 3,000 cabs can
'easily' do the job (and not many more were probably doing the
job on Jan13). So if the 2% (or 12,000) personTrips that
aren't served by the MIT simulation are used to flatten out
the peaks
leaving 10 to 15% of the trips un-served during peaks, then
3,000 cabs could do it. But we all know that mobility
without peaks is easy to provide. What makes it hard are the
peaks and walking away from the peaks is not helpful.
More info is provided in [CSAIL](https://www.csail.mit.edu/ridesharing_reduces_traffic_300_percent)
which suggests that MIT also spatially and temporally
aggregated the demand so that they are not really simulating
an on-demand "hailing" LoS. Displayed is a network with many fewer nodes,
than actual locations where people get in and/or out of
cabs on a typical day and they report "average
waits" of 2.7 minutes which may well be much larger than the
average wait that those 643,456 customers experienced on January
13. No doubt that through spatial and
temporal aggregation one should be able to uncover casual
ride-sharing opportunities that would reduce substantially the
number of cabs on NYC streets. But, would NYC cab patrons be
please with such reduced levels of service remains to be
demonstrated. Alain
The Road to Autonomy
M. Weinreich Jan. 4, "As someone who loves cars, it is diffcult
to look forward to a world without driving. I remember an old
Volkswagen campaign that presented the act as a metaphor for life
itself, proclaiming, "On the road of life, there are passengers
and there are drivers." "There are passengers and there are more
passengers" just doesn't have the same ring to it.
For now, humans are still in the driver's seat, but with each new
car model, there comes a steady integration of autonomous
features. And as ride sharing proliferates, individual ownership
starts to feel unnecessary, especially in urban environments. A
major cultural shift in how people think about cars is under way,
which, in turn, puts an onus on automakers to embrace this new
change....we examine all of these forces at play. In the stories
that follow, we enter the expanding web of industry partnerships,
investments, and acquisitions ("Hardwiring Mobility"); journey
through the key trends ("All Roads Lead to Intelligence"); and sit
down with Mark Aikman, General Manager of Marketing Services at
Mercedes-Benz USA, to discuss the automaker's efforts at creating
the next level of luxury ("Redefining Luxury").
Finally, we look at the way automakers are embracing connectivity
("Designing Smarter Cars") and how that intelligence, along with
autonomous driving, will shape urban areas ("Smarter Cars, Smarter
Cities") :-) ....[Read more](https://www.rga.com/futurevision/magazine/the-road-to-autonomy/smarter-cars-smarter-cities) Hmmm...Goog thought and
perspective article. Alain
Tesla Autopilot stops car from crash
M. Wood, Jan 2, "...Hans Noordsij posted this video on twitter
showing a Tesla vehicle using the Autopilot feature and how it
reacted to a crash ahead.,," [See the video](http://www.waaytv.com/news/tesla-autopilot-stops-car-from-crash/article_a0ef59f4-d270-11e6-a855-4f59b154b481.html) Hmmm...It appropriately
reacted to what was happening directly ahead. Whether or not
the algorthms actually reacted to what was happening to the
vehicle ahead of the vehicle ahead is questionable. Alain
Intel invests in Here to create precise maps for autonomous cars
J. Kastrenakes, Jan 3, “Intel is buying a 15 percent stake in Here, the mapping service started by Nokia that was sold last year to Audi, BMW, and Mercedes for over $3 billion… That’s a key area for Intel, as it recently announced plans to invest $250 million in building self-driving vehicle systems….” Not much to read here Hmmm… Doesn’t say how much it paid for the 15%. More than $450M? Doubtful! Else, it would be announcing that “…it plans to invest …” much more than $250M. But what do I know???? Let’s see… Philips invested about $1B, Nokia bought it for $8.1B, the OEM’s paid $3.1B and now pieces are being sold for what??? (And Alphabet has all the really good data???) Alain
Mercedes-Benz design chief Gorden Wagener believes people will still drive their autonomous cars
T. Warren, Jan 3, “..Of course we’ve seen models of sharing, but I believe we’re not as advanced as everyone thinks because it’s not that easy. There are various definitions of autonomous driving. There’s the Google way: slow speed, small mapped environment, easy to handle because you know all the parameters. You know where every little traffic light is. Slow speed is every easy to manage because it has to do with sensor power. We want to give the customer a choice. There’s actually a hyper analog movement, with increasing digitization we’ll also see some analog solutions, like chrono watches and vinyl records. In terms of luxury it’s much more sustainable, but we will see robo cabs driving around, the Google car. We want to give the customer the choice that he can be on autopilot or drive himself…” Read more Hmmm… All about Self-driving with Driverless nowhere in sight of this or any other OEM. At some point, Kodak!!, Blockbuster!! Alain
BMW, Intel, Mobileye to test 40 driverless cars in second half of 2017
Jan 4. [No details to read](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bmw-mobileye-idUSKBN14O1KA). Hmmm...But we
know that they mean 'Self-driving'. No way they're going to
test 'Driverless' any time soon. BMW is still 'The (as
in The Ohio State..) Ultimate Driving Machine"
and has zero interest in becoming "The Ultimate Riding
Machine", (or even "an Ultimate..."). Alain
Driverless cars finally steer near showrooms
K. Naughton, Jan 3, “Now, the supplier is shifting from stunts to selling. In Las Vegas this week at CES, formerly known as the Consumer Electronics Show, Delphi will give test rides to hundreds of potential customers in driverless Audis over a course of rugged terrain and tunnels. The goal: to walk away from this critical conclave with a handful of hot prospects for its self-driving system….” Read more Hmmm..Again, it would be nice it the writers got the headlines correct. Again.. all about ‘Self-driving” which is quickly becoming the the ‘chrome & fins’ of the late 10s. Alain
BMW just unveiled a futuristic concept for the interior of its driverless cars
C. Thompson. Jan 4, "BMW unveiled a concept for the interior of
driverless cars on Wednesday at a press conference in Las Vegas at
CES..." [Read more](http://www.autonews.com/article/20170103/OEM06/170109971/driverless-cars-finally-steer-near-showrooms) Hmmm.... Again, it has a
steering wheel!!! It can't be driverless!!! BMW isn't stupid
enough to put a steering wheel in a car that is meant to take
someone home from the watering hole. Again, all about OEM's
sweet spot... Selling Fantasies! Alain
Waterloo researchers help launch and demonstrate new autonomous vehicle
Press release, Jan 4, "A research team at the University of
Waterloo played a key role in the development of a highly
autonomous vehicle that [Renesas Electronics America](https://www.renesas.com/en-us/) unveiled today at the Consumer
Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas.
Using sensors and powerful computers, the car is capable of
detecting and responding to other vehicles, stop signs and traffic
lights to provide a safer driving experience. For example,
vehicle-to-infrastructure communications allow the vehicle to
detect in advance when a traffic light will change.... "[Read more](https://uwaterloo.ca/news/news/waterloo-researchers-help-launch-and-demonstrate-new) Hmmm...Nice.
Congratulations. Alain
Machine smarts: how will pedestrians negotiate with driverless cars
M. Gough Sept 8, “…“There’s no more eye contact with the driver, there’s no more gesturing, there’s no one in the vehicle. So something has to be there instead to say, ‘Yes, it is OK to cross’.”… Read more Hmmm…Isn’t it even easier with driverless cars.. They can be equipped to either display or speak exact information. Then there is no longer any need for ad hoc body language or flicking lights. It will be “just the facts, Mam”! Alain
CVTA Standards Integration Workshop Whitepaper available to download
S. McCormick, Jan 4, "CVTA's Standards Integration Review
Workshop was held on 5 October 2016... The workshop was intended
to consider end-to-end security standards integration for the
connected vehicle ecosystem:
•What standards are already available/in progress across the
ecosystem?
•Where are the gaps and opportunities for collaboration in
development, demonstration, testing of these standards?
•What should we be doing to ensure that our standards suite is
sufficient to enable our
ecosystem?... [Read more](http://www.connectedvehicle.org/downloads) Hmmm...Standards for
Connected Vehicles is now at the "white paper" stage. Alain
Ford cancels Mexico plant; will build electric and autonomous cars in Michigan
Jan 3, "Ford is canceling its plans to build a $1.6 billion plant
in Mexico and is instead investing $700 million into its plant in
Flat Rock, Michigan.
Ford President and CEO Mark Fields made the announcement at the
plant Tuesday morning. He explained the transformation and
expansion of the Flat Rock plant will create 700 new jobs and
allow for production of electric and an autonomous vehicles. [Read more](http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/226795170-story) Hmmm...xcellent!
Alain
Some other thoughts
that deserve your attention
###
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
Half-baked stuff that probably
doesn't deserve your time
###
C’mon Man!(These
folks didn't get/read the memo)
Driverless cars save lives
Opinion, Jan 4, “…One topic the article highlighted was the safety aspect of driverless cars. Self-driving cars have the ability to prevent accidents, thus saving lives and money. … Don’t read more. Hmmm… In the same paragraph, they can’t make up their minds what they are writing about, when, in fact, they actually mean ‘Smart-driving Cars”. C’Mon Baltimore Sun. You are as bad as the Ravens (I’m a Stiller Fan!). :-) Alain
What Happens If Driverless Cars Cause A Drought Of Organ Donations?
There’s already not enough organs for everyone on the transplant list, and one of the major sources is people who die in car accidents.Don’t read more Hmmm… For those that don’t procrastenate enough over the Trolley Problem, you can have this cone, the Ultimate C’Mon Man!!! This article had to have been manifested by the OrganTransplant-Surgeon’s Benevolent Organization (OTSBO). You can’t make up this stuff! Alain
Calendar of
Upcoming Events:
Self-driving Leadership Summit @ CES
January 7, 2017
Las Vegas, NV
__________________________________
Princeton Alumni & Friends Banquet
Tuesday, 6:00pm Jan 10
Recent Highlights of:
#
###
December 24, 2016
Waymo’s 100 autonomous Chrysler minivans are here
J. Golson, Dec 19, “Chrysler has completed the 100 autonomous Pacifica minivans that will join the Waymo (née Google) fleet in early 2017. The vans, which are plug-in hybrid variants with Waymo’s self-driving hardware and software built in, are part of a partnership between Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and Waymo that was announced earlier this year.
Waymo CEO John Krafcik said last week that his company is not interested in “making better cars.” Instead, it wants to make “better drivers.”…”
Read more Hmmm…Nice that these vehicles are targeted to a ride-sharing market (more seating capacity and easier in&out than the Prius/Lexus/Bug.)
However, the quote by John Krafcik is VERY troubling. To make “better drivers” all one needs is Automated Collision Avoidance systems (or what I’ve termed ‘Safe-driving cars’). That is indeed a laudable goal; however, that goal can be reached with a lot less hardware and software than what is in these modified Pacificas (which have a conventional steering wheel, brake & throttle pedals and driver’s seat). But Safe-driving cars aren’t helpful to the Steve Mahan’s of this world (or to the young, or the Ubers or enable the Modified Pacifica’s to offer inexpensive high-quality shared-ride on-demand mobility to all. Most unfortunately, what all of the extra gizmos on the modified Pacificas enable is for the driver to be better able to consume Google Ads for part of his/her time trapped in this vehicle. So a more honest quote might have been: it wants to make “better drivers who can better consume Google Ads.” No wonder Chris bailed! :-( Alain
December 18, 2016
The California DMV says Uber has to stop operating its self-driving cars in SF
J. Bhuiyah, Dec 14, “…In a letter addressed to Anthony Levandowski, the co-founder of Otto and now head of Uber’s self-driving unit, the California DMV demanded that the ride-hail company stop operating its fleet of self-driving cars…“ Read moreHmmm… This is all so confusing. The letter from DMV describes the ‘testing’ of ‘autonomous technology’, but Uber isn’t ‘testing’, it is operating and it doesn’t describe its cars as ‘autonomous’ anything, but, ‘self-driving’ (which is the correct designation). To me, what Uber is operating is basically the same thing as what Tesla is selling in California. Moreover, Uber’s Self-driving is less ‘autonomous’ in its operation than the operation of ‘electronic stability control (ESC)’ that has been mandated in every car built since 2012 that operate on California roads. (ESC has sensors and control logic that coordinate the operation of the brakes and throttle at the discretion of the sensors and over-ride the intended control actions of the driver. Now that’s real ‘autonomy’ …taking the driver out of the loop at the discretion of some control logic. Anti -lock brakes are similarly ‘autonomous’) Should everyone in California get a letter from DMV? Just think, New Jersey is trying to enact CA-like legislation. :-( Alain
December 14, 2016
Google is spinning off its self-driving car program into a new company called Waymo
A. Hawkins, Dec 13, “Today, Google announced that it would be spinning off its six-year-old self-driving project into a standalone business called Waymo, which stands for “a new way forward in mobility,” according to John Krafcik, the CEO of the new company.
It was previously reported that Google would be dropping
its plan to build its own vehicle without steering
wheels and pedals, instead focusing on creating the
self-driving technology that can be installed in
third-party vehicles. Krafcik didn't provide much
clarity there, but did state definitively that the new
company was still fully committed to fully autonomous
vehicle technology.
"We are all in, 100 percent, on Level Four and Level
Five fully driverless solutions," he said.
Krafcik didn't comment on a report in Bloomberg that
Google would be starting its own ride-sharing service in
partnership with Fiat Chrysler using the Italian car
maker's Pacifica minivans as its fleet of self-driving
taxis. Google and FCA announced their collaboration
earlier this year. Krafcik did confirm that the
self-driving Pacificas were still in the build phase,
but would hopefully be on the road for testing very
soon.
It may be too soon to say that Google is abandoning its
plans to build it's own fleet of driverless cars,
without steering wheels and pedals. That said, Krafcik
made it clear that Waymo "is not a car company, there's
been some confusion on that point. We're not in business
of making better cars, we're in the business of making
better drivers."...[Read more](http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/13/13936782/google-self-driving-car-waymo-spin-off-company) Hmmm... Boy that is a lot of hedging. If
they are in the business of making better drivers,
then all they need to do is to make Automated
Collision Avoidance systems that actually work...
avoid collisions (aka Safe-driving Cars). That
would make all drivers better drivers, but it
wouldn't do anything for non-drivers... the young,
old, poor, blind, those under the influence, ...
Has Google abandoned all of those folks and reverted
to the 'dark-side'? Alain
December 7, 2016
Why the driverless car industry is happy (so far) with Trump’s pick for Transportation secretary
R. Mitchell, Dec 6, “Silicon Valley voted heavily for Hillary Clinton, but companies working on driverless cars seem overjoyed with President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Transportation secretary, Elaine Chao. Chao will wield great power over how driverless cars and other automated vehicles will be regulated — or not….Industry insiders say they don’t want Chao to ignore driverless car policy….
Instead, they hope to avoid a patchwork of differing and
conflicting rules across the 50 states. "This should
be centralized," said Alain L. Kornhauser, director of
the transportation program at Princeton University and
an autonomous vehicle expert, "but that doesn't mean the
states don't play a part. It would be better if we had a
common understanding...." [Read more](http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-chao-trump-driverless-20161205-story.html)Hmmm... Yup! Alain
November 20, 2016
DSRC’s ‘Dead End,’ Says Qualcomm Exec
J, Yoshida, Nov 15, “…Qualcomm’s pending takeover of NXP Semiconductors isn’t making the path to V2X any clearer.
NXP remains a staunch advocate for DSRC-based V2X (as
demonstrated via truck platooning on Munich roads last
week during Electronica). Qualcomm, a leading voice and
force behind the progress of the cellular standards, is
sticking to its cellular radio technology-based V2X
evolution...We see this as a continued cellular
revolution with new elements coming in... " [Read more](http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1330834) Hmmm...V2X is
important, but primarily as a complement to
vehicle-centered automated collision avoidance and
not as a centralized orchestration of individual
vehicles. Finally seeing this as: "We see
this as a continued cellular revolution with new
elements coming in..." may bring some
reality to V2X. Alain
November 6, 2016
Our Driverless Future
S. Helpen, Nov 24, “ Review of Driverless: Intelligent Cars and the Road Ahead by Hod Lipson and Melba Kurma, MIT Press, 312 pp...” Read the review and the book. Hmmm… This book is really about ‘Driverless’ and differentiates it well from ‘Self-driving’, kudos for that. So while it has no equations, it precisely address the issues. I enjoyed Ch 6, First there were Electronic Highways, especially pages 116,7 and, of course, Chapter 7, Build Smart Cars, not Smart Highways. especially pages 137,8 and the subchapter The value of dumb highways. Chapter 10 Deep Learning: The Final Piece of the Puzzle is a very nice background while much is being advanced ‘as we speak’. The book appropriately ends with a chapter about hype, Ch 12 The Ripple Effects which references the Zero Principle, addresses local goods movement and lists the potential losers in this technological revolution. The book ends by supporting the argument that this technological transition is more about the rapid evolution of algorithms than hardware. Bravo! Alain October 27, 2016
Ontario Must Prepare for Vehicle Automation
B. Grush, Oct. 2016, “Two contradictory stories about our transportation infrastructure are currently in circulation. One is that Ontario’s aging, inadequate and congested infrastructure is perennially unable to catch up with a growing and sprawling GTHA. The other is that vehicle automation will soon dramatically multiply current road capacity by enabling narrower lanes, shorter headways and coordinated streams of connected vehicles to pass through intersections without traffic signals to impede flow.
Since the premature forecast of peak car in 2008 and now
the hype surrounding the automated vehicle, we are often
told that we have enough road capacity; that shared
robotic taxis will optimize our trips, reduce
congestion, and largely eliminate the need for parking.
This advice implies we need wait only a few short years
to experience relief from our current infrastructure
problems given by decades of under-investment in
transportation infrastructure.
This is wishful thinking. Vehicle automation will give rise to two different emerging markets: semi-automated vehicles for household consumption and fully automated vehicles for public service such as robo-taxi and robo-transit. These two vehicle types will develop in parallel to serve different social markets. They will compete for both riders and infrastructure. The purpose of this report is to look at why and how government agencies and public interest groups can and should influence the preferred types and deployment of automated vehicles and the implication of related factors for planning…” Read moreHmmm…Bravo! The Key Findings & Recommendations are excellent. This is an excellent report (but it largely misses goods movement.) Especially 5.1 (read ‘semi-autonomous’ as ‘Self-driving’ and ‘full-automation’ as ‘Driverless’. My view: Driverless may well be at the heals of Self-driving because it is a business play rather than a consumer play. Driverless will be ordered by the hundreds or thousands rather than individually.) and, of course Ch 10: Ownership (the business model) is more important than technology. Alain
October 19, 2016
How Apple Scaled Back Its Titanic Plan to Take on Detroit
M. Gurman, Oct 17, “Apple Inc. has drastically scaled back its automotive ambitions, leading to hundreds of job cuts and a new direction that, for now, no longer includes building its own car, according to people familiar with the project.
Hundreds of members of the car team, which comprises
about 1,000 people, have been reassigned, let go, or
have left of their own volition in recent months, the
people said, asking not to be identified because the
moves aren't public.
New leadership of the initiative, known internally as
Project Titan, has re-focused on developing an
autonomous driving system that gives Apple flexibility
to either partner with existing carmakers, or return to
designing its own vehicle in the future, the people also
said. Apple has kept staff numbers in the team steady by
hiring people to help with the new focus, according to
another person....
Regardless of Apple's struggles, established carmakers
have recognized the threat posed by new entrants and
have embarked on a hiring and acquisition splurge to
beef up their software capabilities. They are wary of
allowing technology companies to own the lucrative
software component of new cars..." [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-17/how-apple-scaled-back-its-titanic-plan-to-take-on-detroit)Hmmm... Very
interesting!) Alain
October 7, 2016
An Alarming 10% Rise in Traffic Deaths in the First Half of 2016
D. Victor, Oct. 5, “Traffic deaths in the United States rose 10.4 percent in the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2015, maintaining a steady climb….
The [numbers were released on Wednesday](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812332) by the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration, which noted that
Americans drove about 50.5 billion more miles in the
first six months of 2016 than in the first half of 2015,
an increase of 3.3 percent....Officials have not
identified a specific cause for the most recent
increase... " [Read more](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/traffic-deaths-up-more-than-10-percent-in-first-half-of-2016.html?_r=0)Hmmm...worst kept
secret...Texting!!! It is an epidemic and the way
to address it begins with Automated
Collision Avoidance Systems (ACAS)...what is on the
shelf today (if it only really worked), and a
necessary foundation for Self-driving (which
improves Quality-of-Life for some but increases VMT)
and Driverless (which improves Quality-of-Life for
all and decreases VMT). Alain
October 1, 2016
Do Driverless Cars Favor Urban or Suburban Life?
H. Grabar, Sept 29, “One possibility is that easy mobility—driverless cars, on-demand deliveries, and the like—will dull the pains of suburban life. The long commute, the wasted driving time, the difficulty of running out for a carton of milk—the inconvenience and expense of the subdivision will be melted away by hot new technology. Milk by drone, what a concept!
Another is that easy mobility produces greater
advantages in the city. Carless living is better than
ever. NIMBY battles don't happen because parking and
congestion aren't problems. Wasted auto infrastructure,
like lots and curbside parking and garages, is converted
towards better uses like housing and restaurants. Maybe
a central highway, once evidence of a city's essential
unpleasantness, becomes a park.... [Read more](http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/09/29/are_driverless_cars_better_for_cities_or_suburbs.html) Hmmm...VERY interesting. My
view: There is essentially zero consumer demand
for Driverless car ownership. Without a
substantial mobility alternative, suburbanites
will buy and love Self-driving cars. Driverless
is a useless upgrade.
However, fleets of Driverless vehicles can provide a compelling alternative. They have a much better opportunity to thrive (be a profitable fleet business) if Driverless makes sharing rides “consumer acceptable/desirable”. This may be achieved through price, amenities, ease-of-use, marketing, ???. Moderate density generates demand that can be readily served with moderate ridesharing that is substantially better than individual car ownership or car-sharing. This kind of elevator-like mobility is better in terms of service, price, overhead, environment, … and it substantially enhances the fundamental attractiveness of medium density urban lifestyle. Thus, ride-share Driverless favors moderate urban while Self-driving favors status quo. Alain
September 23, 2016
Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution In Roadway Safety
September 2016, “Executive Summary…For DOT, the excitement around highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with safety. (p5)
…The development of advanced automated vehicle safety technologies, including fully self-driving cars, may prove to be the greatest personal transportation revolution since the popularization of the personal automobile nearly a century ago. (p5)
…The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities. (p5)
…The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. (p6) Hmmm…Fantastic statements and I appreciate that the fundamental basis and motivator is SAFETY. We all have recognized safety as a necessary condition that must be satisfied if this technology is to be successful. (unfortunately it is not a sufficient condition, (in a pure math context)). This policy statement appropriately reaffirms this necessary condition. Alain
“…we divide the task of facilitating the safe introduction and deployment (…defines “deployment” as the operation of an HAV by members of the public who are not the employees or agents of the designer, developer, or manufacturer of that HAV.) of HAVs into four sections:(p6) Hmmm…Perfect! Alain
“…1. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p6)…“ Hmmm… 15 Points, more later. Alain
“…2. Model State Policy (p7) The Model State Policy confirms that States retain their traditional responsibilities…but… The shared objective is to ensure the establishment of a consistent national framework rather than a patchwork of incompatible laws…” Hmmm… Well done. Alain
“…3. NHTSA Current Regulatory Tools (p7) … This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to…” Hmmm… Excellent. Alain
“…4. New Tools and Authorities (p7)…The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities. This challenge requires DOT to examine whether the way DOT has addressed safety for the last 50 years should be expanded to realize the safety potential of automated vehicles over the next 50 years. Therefore, this section identifies potential new tools, authorities and regulatory structures that could aid the safe and appropriately expeditious deployment of new technologies by enabling the Agency to be more nimble and flexible (p8)…“ Hmmm… Yes. Alain
“…Note on “Levels of Automation” There are multiple definitions for various levels of automation and for some time there has been need for standardization to aid clarity and consistency. Therefore, this Policy adopts the SAE International (SAE) definitions for levels of automation. ) Hmmm… I’m not sure this adds clarity because it does not deal directly with the difference between self-driving and driverless. While it might be implied in level 4 and level 5 that these vehicles can proceed with no one in the vehicle, it is not stated explicitly. That is unfortunate, because driverless freight delivery can’t be done without “driverless”; neither can mobility-on-demand be offered to the young, old, blind, inebriated, …without “driverless”. Vehicles can’t be “repositioned-empty” (which (I don’t mean to offend anyone) is the real value of a taxi driver today). So autonomousTaxis are impossible.
Also, these levels do not address Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) Systems and Automated Lane Keeping Systems which are the very first systems whose on-all-the-time performance must be perfected. These are the Safety Foundation of HAV (Highly Automated vehicles). I understand that the guidelines may assume that these systems are already perfect and that “20 manufacturer have committed” to have AEB on all new cars, but to date these systems really don’t work. In 12 mph IIHS test, few stop before hitting the target, and, as we may have seen with the Florida Tesla crash, the Level 2/3 AutoPilot may not have failed, but, instead, it was the “Phantom Level 1” AEB that is supposed to be on all the time. This is not acceptable. These AEB systems MUST get infinitely better now. It is a shame that AEBs were were not explicitly addressed in this document.
“…I. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p11) A. Guidance: if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.(footnote 7) However, manufacturers and other entities designing new automated vehicle systems
are subject to NHTSA's defects, recall and enforcement
authority. (footnote 8) .
and the "[15 Cross-cutting Areas of Guidance](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/technology/the-15-point-federal-checklist-for-self-driving-cars.html?_r=0)" p17)
In sum this is a very good document and displays just how far DoT policy has come from promoting v2v, DSRC and centralized control, “connected”, focus to creating an environment focused on individual vehicles that responsibly take care of themselves. Kudos to Secretary Foxx for this 180 degree policy turn focused on safety. Once done correctly, the HAV will yield the early safety benefits that will stimulate continued improvements that, in turn, will yield the great mobility, environmental and quality-of-life benefits afforded by driverless mobility.
What are not addressed are commercial trucking and buses/mass transit. NHTSA is auto focused, so maybe FMCSA is preparing similar guidelines. FTA (Federal Transit Administration) seems nowhere in sight. Alain
August 28, 2016
Prepare to be Underwhelmed by 2021’s Autonomous Cars
August 19, 2016
Ford Promises Fleets of Driverless Cars Within Five Years
N. Boudette, Aug 16, “In the race to develop driverless cars, several automakers and technology companies are already testing vehicles that pilot themselves on public roads. And others have outlined plans to expand their development fleets over the next few years. At a news conference on Tuesday at the company’s research center in Palo Alto, Calif., Mark Fields, Ford’s chief executive, said the company planned to mass produce driverless cars and have them in commercial operation in a ride-hailing service by 2021….
"That means there's going to be no steering wheel.
There's going to be no gas pedal. There's going to be no
brake pedal,'' he said. ...." [Read mor](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/business/ford-promises-fleets-of-driverless-cars-within-five-years.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/business/ford-promises-fleets-of-driverless-cars-within-five-years.html?_r=0)e Hmmm...This
is significant because it implies that Ford, (or an
entity under its control) will operate and deliver
on a day-to-day basis MaaS (Mobility as a Service).
In other words it will both build/assemble and
operate mobility's "Cloud". The scale economies of
such a mobility "cloud" are arguably much more
substantial than that of the data storage &
computing "cloud". Think about it! Alain
August 8, 2016
Latest to Quit Google’s Self-Driving Car Unit: Top Roboticist
August 1, 2016
Mobileye Ends Partnership With Tesla
July 21, 2016
Master Plan, Part Deux
Lessons From the Tesla Crash
7 Crash
Hmmm…What we know now (and don’t know):
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
Chenyi Chen PhD Dissertation , “…the key part of the thesis, a direct perception approach is proposed to drive a car in a highway environment. In this approach, an input image is mapped to a small number of key perception indicators that directly relate to the affordance of a road/traffic state for driving…..” Read more Hmmm..FPO 10:00am, May 16 , 120 Sherrerd Hall, Establishing a foundation for image-based autonomous driving using DeepLearning Neural Networks trained in virtual environments. Very promising. Alain
Hearing focus of SF 2569 Autonomous vehicles task force establishment and demonstration project for people with disabilities
March 23 Hmmm… Watch the video of the Committee Meeting. The testimony is Excellent and very compelling! Also see Self-Driving Minnesota Alain
U.S. DOT and IIHS announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
Motor Vehicle Deaths Increase by Largest Percent in 50 Years
Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015
Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. [Hmmm ... Watch Video](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/AdamJonas10T_MorganStanley.mp4)
especially at the 13:12 mark.
Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment
above! Also see his [TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas).
Alain
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