2020-06-13

2020-06-13

edition of the 8th year of SmartDrivingCars

Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19, June 12, 2020

R. Dale Hall, June 12, “…By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines….”  Read more  Hmmm… Excellent!  An enormous amount here.   See especially FIg 11 and 17.  These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, …  An enormous amount to digest here.  Excellent. Alain

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 160 - Jessica Cicchino

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F. Fishkin, June 12, “Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Research VP Jessica Cicchino co-authored a new study saying self driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes.   She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to discuss the study.  Plus the latest on Tesla, Ford & VW, Covid-19 and more.  “   “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 160 - Jessica Cicchino

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Video version of SmartDrivingCars PodCast 160 …. Alain

                                              The SmartDrivingCars
                                              eLetter, Pod-Casts,
                                              Zoom-Casts and
                                              Zoom-inars are made
                                              possible in part by
                                              support from the Smart
                                              Transportation and
                                              Technology ETF, symbol
                                              MOTO.   For more
                                              information: [www.motoetf.com](https://www.smartetfs.com/).
                                              Most funding is
                                              supplied by Princeton
                                              University's
                                              Department of
                                              Operations Research
                                              & Financial
                                              Engineering and
                                              Princeton Autonomous
                                              Vehicle Engineering
                                              (PAVE) research
                                              laboratory as
                                              part of its research
                                              dissemination
                                              initiatives.

SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 004Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?

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Live: Tuesday, June 23, 2:00pm New York Time

Free Pre-registration is required

Self-driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes

Press release, June 2, “Driver mistakes play a role in virtually all crashes. That’s why automation has been held up as a potential game changer for safety. But autonomous vehicles might prevent only around a third of all crashes if automated systems drive too much like people, according to a new study from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety….

                                            But the Institute's
                                            analysis suggests that
                                            only about a third of
                                            those crashes were the
                                            result of mistakes that
                                            automated vehicles would
                                            be expected to avoid
                                            simply because they have
                                            more accurate perception
                                            than human drivers and
                                            aren't vulnerable to
                                            incapacitation. To avoid
                                            the other two-thirds,
                                            they would need to be
                                            specifically programmed
                                            to prioritize safety
                                            over speed and
                                            convenience..."  [Read more](https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/self-driving-vehicles-could-struggle-to-eliminate-most-crashes)  Hmmm...
                                                  Repeat of
                                                  nsertion that was
                                                  in SDC 8.24 last
                                                  week.  As I noted,
                                                  this is NOT good
                                                  news.  However, as
                                                  is often the case,
                                                  details matter.
                                                  After reading the
                                                  Report: "[What humanlike errors do autonomous vehicles need toavoid to maximize safety?](https://www.dropbox.com/s/s5croiypqufxtk6/IIHS_WhatHuman-LikeErrorsAVsNeedToAvoid_A_Mueller_May2020.pdf?dl=0)"
                                                  by A. Mueller,
                                                  J.Cicchono and D.
                                                  Zuby, the
                                                  fundamental
                                                  assumption is that
                                                  the AV system
                                                  functions only
                                                  make the best out
                                                  of driver
                                                  misbehavior rather
                                                  than being
                                                  pro-active and
                                                  precluding the
                                                  driver from
                                                  misbehaving.
                                                  Baically the
                                                  assumption is "let
                                                  drivers be drivers
                                                  and have the AV
                                                  system clean up
                                                  the mess as best
                                                  it can.  Drivers
                                                  can continue to
                                                  misbehave by
                                                  tailgating,
                                                  speeding, running
                                                  red lights,
                                                  crossing double
                                                  lines when traffic
                                                  is on-coming,
                                                  driving into fog,
                                                  hurricanes, ice
                                                  covered roads,
                                                  un-plowed deep
                                                  knee-deep
                                                  snow-covered
                                                  lanes, get too
                                                  close to bikers,
                                                  etc.

The “AV system” considered in this study is basically limited to driver warnings and some automated collision avoidance.  It’s “Tesla’s AutoPilot” improved with an automated collison avoidance system that doesn’t disregard stationary objects ahead.  Sure! Under these circumstances, reducing at-fault crashes for the average driver by 30% is actually doing really well!   But that’s not a “Safe-driving Car”!

A Safe-driving Car is one that has enough perception of the road ahead to enable it to over-ride driver misbehaviors.  It doesn’t let the driver tailgate, speed excessively, run red lights, cross double lines when there is on-coming traffic, …. .   Such an AV system has an opportunity to reduce at-fault crashes much more substantially. These capabilities are absolutely necessary in Driverless cars with the added avantage that they don’t have a human driver working against the safe operation of the system.

Of course, Safe-driving cars and Driverless cars are not immune from being T-boned by a conventional car running a red light, or having a bicyclist run into them, or … . Some folks will prefer to not own a Safe-driving car or not use driverless mobility.  For them, it is important that at least their insurance premiums reflect the carnage and expected liability of their at-fault driver behavior. Their insurance premiums should be very expensive. These issues and others will likely come up during our next Zoom-Tank Zoom-inar now scheduled for 2:00pm, Tuesday, June 23 focused on Insurance and SmartDrivingCars. Alain

Are Tesla Vehicles The Most Dangerous Cars On The Road?

S. Loveday,  June 10, Due to the selective nature of reports in the media, as well as the focus on negative and bad news over positive reports, some people may be concerned about buying a Tesla. It will catch fire, it accelerates on its own when you least expect it, and its Autopilot system might cause a crash.

                                            While all of these
                                            things "could" happen,
                                            they're arguably not
                                            likely to happen any
                                            more often in a Tesla or
                                            any electric car than
                                            they are in a gas car.
                                            In fact, there's plenty
                                            of research that
                                            suggests [EVs are less likely to catch fire](https://insideevs.com/news/353754/tesla-fires-battery-fires-rare/),
                                            driver-assist systems
                                            save many more lives
                                            than they take, and
                                            sudden unintended
                                            acceleration is much
                                            more unlikely than
                                            driver error.

                                            Over the years, we've
                                            seen news of Tesla
                                            fires. Now, as more
                                            electric cars come to
                                            market, [we're getting reports of other automaker's EVs catching fire](https://insideevs.com/news/427981/hyundai-kona-electric-fire-south-korea/)....

Just like the fires, we’ve seen our fair share of Tesla crashes involving Autopilot….

‘More recently, there have been plenty of claims of sudden unintended acceleration in Tesla’s vehicles. Thus far, none have been proven….

According to official crash tests and car fire statistics, the answer is very much the opposite. In order to put all the information in one place and set the record straight, Electric Future produced the above video with all the numbers….’‘   Read more Hmmm… Again, Tesla has the fundamental user data that can go a very long way to characterize even the nuances of Tesla’s safety.  I can understand the many reasons that Tesla doesn’t want to release the data. A major one beng that comparable data doesn’t exist for any of the other cars on the road.

Since safety is realy a relative perception, rather than an absolute fact, fighting relative perception with facts is ususally futile and often counter productive. Never the less, and especially since Tesla is close to being the most valuable auto OEM, I call on Tesla to lead. Bring real transparancy to safety.  Release your undelying safety data to independent scholarly investigators. Short of that, I recommend whatching InsideEV’s video.  While watchng, also please think “driver misbehavior” every time you hear “driver error”. Alain

Tesla stock soars above $1,000 as Musk vows to “go all out” for Semi

                                          T. Lee, June 10, "Tesla's
                                          stock price soared above
                                          $1,000 on Wednesday. The
                                          rise pushed the company's
                                          valuation to around $190
                                          billion—within striking
                                          distance of the world's
                                          most valuable car company,
                                          Toyota, at $215 billion.

                                          Tesla's stock surge comes
                                          a week after one of
                                          Tesla's leading electric
                                          vehicle rivals, Nikola, [debuted its stock on public markets](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/nikolas-founder-trevor-milton-is-worth-4point6-billion-after-ipo.html). Like Tesla,
                                          Nikola is building
                                          all-electric vehicles. But
                                          there are a couple of big
                                          differences. First, while
                                          Tesla initially focused on
                                          passenger cars, Nikola
                                          will initially sell trucks
                                          along with off-road
                                          vehicles and a jet ski.
                                          Second, while Tesla cars
                                          run on batteries, Nikola
                                          is focusing on fuel
                                          cells—though some vehicles
                                          will have a battery
                                          option.

                                          Nikola's first week on the
                                          stock market has been
                                          strong, with the stock
                                          price nearly doubling to
                                          reach Wednesday's closing
                                          price of $65. This makes
                                          Nikola worth nearly $30
                                          billion—on par with
                                          Ford—before it has shipped
                                          its first vehicle.

                                          Nikola's debut on the
                                          stock market apparently
                                          got Elon Musk's attention.
                                          In a [Wednesday email](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-soars-past-1-000-164648192.html) to staff, Musk
                                          reportedly wrote that it
                                          was "time to go all out"
                                          and bring the long-delayed
                                          Tesla Semi to market. The
                                          Semi was initially planned
                                          for production in 2019,
                                          but Tesla recently
                                          admitted that the ship
                                          date would slip to 2021.
                                          Two years ago, Nikola sued
                                          Tesla, arguing that
                                          Tesla's design for the
                                          semi was too similar to
                                          Nikola's own semitruck
                                          design. That legal battle
                                          continues to this
                                          day...."  [Read more](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-stock-soars-above-1000-as-musk-vows-to-go-all-out-for-semi/)  Hmmm...  Who knew that the truck
                                                business was
                                                incrementally worth
                                                that much.   Wow!
                                                Alan

Transportation lab predicts “extreme traffic” for some cities following COVID-19

M. Shapiro, June 5, “As communities and cities across America embark on paths for reopening, a transportation group at Vanderbilt is asking the question: What will traffic look like if transit riders become car drivers?

                                            A new article, published
                                            online by the Work
                                            Research Group at
                                            Vanderbilt, takes a hard
                                            look at transportation
                                            modes during and after
                                            the COVID-19 pandemic
                                            using mathematical
                                            analysis and basic laws
                                            of traffic to explore
                                            scenarios of increased
                                            car commuting. Through
                                            their work, the
                                            researchers predict a
                                            sweeping switch to
                                            single-occupancy vehicle
                                            commuting and resulting
                                            risk for extreme traffic
                                            in large metro areas.

                                            The article, titled "The
                                            Rebound," is available
                                            online: [https://lab-work.github.io/therebound/](https://lab-work.github.io/therebound/)..."
                                            [Read more](https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2020/06/05/transportation-lab-predicts-extreme-traffic-for-some-cities-following-covid-19/)  Hmmm...Be
                                                  sure to read [the paper](https://lab-work.github.io/therebound/).  Many
                                                  caveats and
                                                  assumptions (as
                                                  always when
                                                  looking into the
                                                  future), but
                                                  really good.
                                                  Alain

Temple Grandin, Elon Musk And The Interesting Parallels Between Autonomous Vehicles And Autism

                                          R. Razdan, June 7,
                                          ":..."For the last decade,
                                          autonomous vehicles have
                                          been attempting to become
                                          operational with great
                                          fanfare with companies
                                          such as Waymo(Google) and
                                          Musk's Tesla TSLArolling
                                          out solutions.
                                          Interestingly, in a
                                          similar period of time, an
                                          increasing number of
                                          people with autism have
                                          wanted to join the driving
                                          public, and this has
                                          prompted research studies
                                          on their effectiveness in
                                          the driving task. This is
                                          reported in an excellent
                                          and fascinating New York
                                          Times NYT article "[The Challenge of Driving With Asperger's.](https://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/27/the-challenge-of-driving-with-aspergers/)"
                                          Several comments in the
                                          article are directly
                                          on-point relative to
                                          autonomous vehicles:...

Finally, the commonality brings up a more basic question: Shouldn’t AVs pass at least the same tests as outlined in the guideline from the autism institute ? It seems somehow illogical that one would allow an AV on the road in a situation where there was a determination that a human should not drive.” Read more  Hmmm…   Very interesting!! Alain

Watch Tesla’s latest Autopilot software handle a roundabout

                                          F. Lambert, June 11, "A
                                          new video shows Tesla's
                                          latest Autopilot software
                                          handling the steering
                                          automatically in a full
                                          roundabout.   As we
                                          previously reported, Tesla
                                          is going through "a
                                          significant foundational
                                          rewrite in the Tesla
                                          Autopilot." As part of the
                                          rewrite, CEO Elon Musk
                                          says that the "neural net
                                          is absorbing more and more
                                          of the problem."

                                          It will also include a
                                          more in-depth labeling
                                          system.  Musk described 3D
                                          labeling as a
                                          game-changer:... " [Read more](https://electrek.co/2020/06/11/tesla-autopilot-software-roundabout-video/) Hmmmm...
                                                [Watch video.](https://youtu.be/uMkRgxL7CGc)  Alain

Ford, Volkswagen Sign Agreements for Joint Projects On Commercial Vehicles, EVs, Autonomous Driving

Press release, June 10, “Ford Motor Company and Volkswagen AG today signed agreements that expand their global alliance to meet rapidly evolving needs of their respective customers in Europe and other regions by leveraging complementary strengths in midsize pickup trucks and commercial and electric vehicles. Plans for the agreements were first announced by Ford and Volkswagen last July…“  Read more Hmmmm… More official details about the agreement that we’ve been follwoing for a while.  Alain

Volkswagen’s Trailer Assist Video

                                          2016??? "VW faking it to
                                          promote their "Trailer
                                          Assist capability"  [See video](https://medium.com/self-driven/what-volkswagens-investment-in-argo-ai-means-for-ford-s-self-driving-vehicle-business-556472221dee)  Hmmm...   Cute but given[Dieselgate,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal) VW
                                                should be careful in
                                                its efforts to fool
                                                the public.  They
                                                must have better
                                                things to do.  Alain

Top Tesla investor bets flying taxis are the future, taking a stake in German start-up Lilium

R. Browne, June 8, “Baillie Gifford, Tesla’s top external investor, has invested $35 million in Lilium, a German start-up vying to become a major player in the emerging “air taxi” space.

                                            Munich-headquartered
                                            Lilium made waves last
                                            year with the [maiden flight](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/16/five-seater-all-electric-and-jet-powered-air-taxi-makes-maiden-flight.html) of its
                                            five-seater electric
                                            aircraft, the Lilium
                                            Jet. The vehicle takes
                                            off and lands
                                            vertically, similar to a
                                            helicopter, but is
                                            powered by 36 electric
                                            jet engines placed in
                                            two sets of wings.

                                            The firm has now secured
                                            a valuation of more than
                                            $1 billion thanks to an
                                            extension of a $240
                                            million investment round
                                            announced earlier this
                                            year, raising it into
                                            the ranks of Europe's
                                            unicorn companies.
                                            Baillie Gifford has
                                            taken a less than 5%
                                            stake in Lilium.  The
                                            fresh funding takes
                                            Lilium's total
                                            investment to date to
                                            more than $375 million.
                                            The company's other
                                            backers include Tencent,
                                            Atomico, Freigeist and
                                            LGT...." [Read more](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/tesla-backer-baillie-gifford-invests-in-air-taxi-startup-lilium.html)
                                                  Hmmmm...  I'm
                                                  still not a fan of
                                                  toys for the
                                                  1%ers. I doubt
                                                  that its value is
                                                  CBD2CBD, but
                                                  instead
                                                  Village2Village
                                                  (Hamptons2SuburbanOffice).
                                                  CBD office towers
                                                  are doomed in the
                                                  NewNormal. Has
                                                  good videos.
                                                  Alain

SPACEX MARS CITY: ELON MUSK CONFIRMS HE’S STICKING TO AMBITIOUS LAUNCH DATE M. Brown, June 5, “SpaceX wants to build a city on Mars, and it’s not waiting around to get started.  On Friday, CEO Elon Musk confirmed via Twitter that he’s still aiming to launch the first ships to Mars by 2022. These ships will hold cargo designed to support a future manned mission. That mission will come in 2024, the next time when the Earth and Mars are close again…“  Read more Hmmmm… While much crazier, I’m a fan of this.  A dream that died 50 years ago, not seems almost doable. If you haen’t seen Musk’s 2017 vision, see it here. Alain

                                              New Roman"">    [Draft](https://www.dropbox.com/s/p7t7fwkm1wu9n3g/ProgramDraft1_4thAnnualPrincetonSDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0)Princeton
                                              SmartDrivingCar
                                              Summit
                                            Postponed
                                                  until Evening Oct.
                                                  20 through Oct.
                                                  22, 2020
                                                  (Maybe???) A.
                                            Kornhauser, Feb 6, "The
                                            focus of the Summit this
                                            year will be moving
                                            beyond the AI and the
                                            Sensors to addressing
                                            the challenges of
                                            Commercialization and
                                            the delivery of tangible
                                            value to communities.
                                            We've made enormous
                                            progress with the
                                            technology. We're doing
                                            the investment; however,
                                            this investment delivers
                                            value only if is
                                            commercialized: made
                                            available and is used by
                                            consumers in large
                                            numbers.  Demos and
                                            one-offs are "great",
                                            but to deliver value
                                            that is anywhere near
                                            commensurate with the
                                            magnitude of the
                                            investment made to date,
                                            initial deployments need
                                            to scale.  We can't just
                                            have "Morgantown PRT
                                            Systems" whose initial
                                            deployment has been
                                            nothing but enormously
                                            successful for 45 years
                                            (an essentially perfect
                                            safety record, an
                                            excellent availability
                                            record and customer
                                            valued mobility).
                                            Unfortunately, the
                                            system was never
                                            expanded or duplicated
                                            anywhere.  It didn't
                                            scale.  It is a
                                            one-off.

Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale.  In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va. which became the reference for many other cites.  “… By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague’s equipment had been begun or planned on several continents…” Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology.  It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.

                                          In part, the 4th Summit
                                          will focus on defining the
                                          "Richmond" of Affordable
                                          Shared-ride On-demand
                                          Mobility-as-a-Service.
                                          The initial Operational
                                          Design Domain (ODD) that
                                          safely accommodates
                                          Driverless Mobility
                                          Machines that people
                                          actually choose to use and
                                          becomes the envy of
                                          communities throughout the
                                            Read more
                                                Hmmmm... [Draft Program](https://www.dropbox.com/s/p7t7fwkm1wu9n3g/ProgramDraft1_4thAnnualPrincetonSDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0) is in
                                                flux.  Consider all
                                                named individuals as
                                                "Invited yet to be
                                                confirmed". Alain

C’mon Man!(These

                                              folks didn't get/read
                                              the memo)

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Sunday

                                              Supplement

Half-Baked

Samsung AR glasses patent shows off turn-by-turn navigation function

S. Szymkowski, June 3, “… In a patent filed in South Korea, Samsung partially describes a pair of glasses with AR functions that can provide turn-by-turn navigation right in front of the driver’s eyes. Essentially, it sounds a bit like a head-up display of the kind some cars provide in the windshield, but in this case, it’s directly ahead of the driver, thanks to the glasses….”  Read more Hmmmm…As if heads up displays weren’t annoying enough, last thing one needs are turn-by-turn directions in your face which ever way you turn your head. Yipes!!! So bad!  So annoying!! Alain

Click-Bait

Calendar

                                            of Upcoming Events:s

                                            New Roman""> [SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 004](http://zoom-tank.com/) AV
                                          Shark-Tank:

Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?

Live Tuesday, June 23 @ 2pm New York Time

Register Here

                                              Evening Oct. 20 ->
                                              Oct 22.

SmartDrivingCar Summit

Princeton University Princeton, NJ

On the More Technical Side

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/

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SmartDrivingCars  Pod-Cast Episode 159,  Zoom-Cast Episode 159 w/Kara Kockelman

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F. Fishkin, June 4, “Prof. Kara Kockelman’s focus on smart transportation to save lives, money and the environment has made her a sought after global expert. The U. of Texas Transportation Engineering Professor joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on the impact of Covid-19 and much more.  Plus Tesla, Uber, Argo AI and the top smart driving headlines.  For more on Dr. Kockelman’s work….please visit…  http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 158, Zoom-Cast Episode 158 w/Chunka Mui

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                                              F. Fishkin, May 28,
                                              "In the midst of the
                                              Covid-19 pandemic,
                                              what are the smartest
                                              ways to re-build and
                                              plan for the future?
                                              Futurist and author
                                              Chunka Mui joins
                                              Princeton's Alain
                                              Kornhauser and co-host
                                              Fred Fishkin for that
                                              plus Amazon, Zoox,
                                              Intel Mobileye, Tesla,
                                              Uber and more." SmartDrivingCars [Pod-Cast Episode 157](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-157),  [Zoom-Cast Episode 157](https://youtu.be/AQbuiJ70c7U) w/Grayson
                                      Brulte

F. Fishkin, May 21, “Global auto makers must completely re-think their autonomous mobility strategy as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. So says innovation strategist Grayson Brulte of Brulte & Company….who joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus…Waymo, Tesla, Uber and more.”

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                                      SmartDrivingCars Zoom-inar
                                        002  [The Future of Public Roadway Transit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sqBZZzezUg)

(Will the Bus be Thrown Under the Bus?)

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SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 156Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 156 w/Danny Shapiro2

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F. Fishkin, May 14, “With new hardware and software capabilities NVIDIA is expanding into new areas of driver assistance technology. Sr. Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus the latest on Waymo, Voyage, Ford and more. listen and subscribe!”   “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 155, Zoom-Cast Episode 155  w/Alex Roy2

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F. Fishkin, April 29, “The continuing impact of Covid-19 on autonomous vehicle progress. But it may not be all bad news. Alex Roy…host of the No Parking Podcast and Director of Special Operations at Argo AI joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Intel, Lyft, Uber and more. Listen and subscribe!”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 154, Zoom-Cast Episode 154   w/Dan Sperling

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F. Fishkin, April 29, “Can ride sharing rebound after the pandemic? Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo, Ford and more.”

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-inar 001 The Driverless New Normal Debate

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SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 153, Zoom-Cast Episode 153 w/Dick Mudge2

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F. Fishkin, April 17, “The plummeting price of oil and what it may mean for mobility, ride sharing and the economy.. Dick Mudge, founder and president of Compass Transportation & Technology joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus GM, Uber and more on the Coronavirus impact.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 152, Zoom-Cast Episode 152 w/Brad Templeton

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F. Fishkin, April 17, “Can robotaxis survive a pandemic? Internet pioneer, self driving car consultant and author Brad Templeton joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in a wide ranging chat on the impact today and the future. Plus…Uber, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla and more.”   “

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SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 151,  Zoom-Cast Episode 151 w/Joe Moye

F. Fishkin, April 9, “In the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic, fully autonomous, driverless vehicles are carrying medical supplies and Covid-19 tests to the Mayo Clinic in Florida. They’re provided by Beep and the CEO, Joe Moye, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that, plus the latest from Nuro, Tesla and more.”

SmartDrivingCars Podcast Episode 150 - Andrei Greenawalt

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F. Fishkin, April 3, “Coronavirus devastates transportation and mobility. How does it recover? Matthew Daus, former NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission chairman, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and much more. Watch, subscribe, and find us

Video version… Watch episode 150 with Andrei Greenawalt

SmartDriving CarsPodcast Episode 149 - Matt Daus

F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, “The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also…Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!”  … Alain

Video version… Watch episode 149 with Matt Daus….  Alain

SmartDrivingCars Podcast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop

F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, “The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also…Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!” … Alain

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop Video version… Watch our first attempt….  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, Mar. 14, “From Sweden…The Dispatcher editor Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin as Covid-19 takes a toll on Waymo, Uber and more. Plus Saving the Car Industries in the U.S. and the EU… the latest from Future Networked Car 2020 in Geneva and more.” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes

F. Fishkin, Feb 15, “What shifting populations mean for the future of mobility and transportation. Leading expert Jim Hughes of Rutgers University joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Tesla, GM, Comma AI’s inexpensive autopilot, Aptiv, Lyft and more. Tune in and subscribe! “

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy

F. Fishkin, Feb 7, “The latest glossary of BS in mobility, self driving and autonomy from author, podcaster and cannonball driver Alex Roy on Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the news from Tesla, Nuro, Waymo, GM and more! “ Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 140 - C. Mericli

F. Fishkin, Jan 31, “How self driving tech can increase profits in the trucking industry. Locomation’s CEO joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Waymo’s partnership with UPS, Tesla’s rocket ride, Hyundai’s Smart Park Super Bowl ad and more.  “ Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O’Toole

F. Fishkin, Jan 25, “Adaptive cruise control and self driving tech may lead to more urban sprawl. But the Cato Institute’s Randal O’Toole says maybe that isn’t a bad thing. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Subaru’s tech, GM’s Cruise, Tesla and more on the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This edition is sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information…head to www.motoetf.com   “

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart

F. Fishkin, Jan 18, “The new mobility on the ground and in the air. Nicolas Zart joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for a discussion on Urban Air Mobility…plus..Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Mobileye, Waymo and more in this edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast.” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136

F. Fishkin, Jan 6, “He’s back!  Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser…still on the mend …but opinionated as ever…joins co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the latest from Waymo, Tesla and more in Episode 136 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. “ Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson

F. Fishkin, Dec 5, “In this special edition… the launch of a new exchange traded fund focused on smart transportation and technology. Guinness Atkinson Asset Management CEO Jim Atkinson joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus..a push by the Coalition for Future Mobility for action in Washington, AutoX wants driverless testing in California and Aptiv grows in Pittsburgh. “

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, Nov. 1, “An updated outlook for automated vehicles…Tesla, Waymo , Ford, VW and more. Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by guests Michael Sena and Dick Mudge in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 126 - Sturges & Caudill F. Fishkin, Sept 19 , “From the public library in Princeton, NJ… a special edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast following a public forum conducted by Princeton Future on the potential for transit on demand for all. Join Princeton professor Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and special guests for that…plus…the latest on Waymo, Tesla, Hyundai, Aptiv and more. “ Pictures from the Princeton Future Public Forum on Driverless Mobility for All.

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 121 - Ken Pyle F. Fishkin, Aug 22 , “Daimler and Bosch hold a community meeting in San Jose as they ready plans for autonomous vehicle testing. Community board member Ken Pyle joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus…Waymo, Tesla and more.”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 116 - Jerome Lutin F. Fishkin, July 20, “Can technology dramatically improve the safety of bus transportation for pedestrians, riders and drivers? The lead investigator in a national study, Jerry Lutin,  joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on episode 116 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Plus…Tesla’s new safety report, the latest from Lyft, Aptiv and a NY Times report on why driverless cars are taking longer than expected. Tune in and subscribe!.”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM F. Fishkin, June 9, “Should the insurance industry be pushing more safety and autonomous tech in cars? It’s a win, win says Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser. Joining him in the discussion along with co-host Fred Fishkin is NJM’s John Hardiman, a board member of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Also…Fiat Chrysler, Ford and more.”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot F. Fishkin, May 25, “ The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus…Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup

###

F. Fishkin, May 18, “Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It’s just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit Leilei Shinohara & Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell

F. Fishkin, May 18, “In this special edition from the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit, Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by RoboSense VP Leilei Shinohara on the LiDAR’s benefits. And view of autonomous technology from law enforcement with New York State Police

                                      Staff Sergeant Terence
                                      McDonnell." [Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-106)

F. Fishkin, May 18, “From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, David Kidd from the Highway Loss Data Institute joins Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin and then on site preliminary research results on mobility for all with Cecilia Feeley and Andrea Lubin from Rutgers.”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund

F. Fishkin, May 18,, “From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit’s focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund.”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 100 - Andrei Greenawalt’99/Via

April 5, F. Fishkin, “The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena’69

March 28, F. Fishkin, “The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus …the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe.”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 81 -nVIDIA, Shapiro & Local Motors / Olli, Hodge

F. Fishkin,  Jan. 9, “How NVIDIA is paving the way for self driving cars and a new OLLI automated transport from Local Motors. NVIDIA’s Senior Director for Automotive, Danny Shapiro and Kurtis Hodge of Local Motors join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for another edition of Smart Driving Cars from CES 2019..”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader’55

F. Fishkin,  Dec. 13, “When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says “Not so fast.”  The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui

F. Fishkin, Nov 29,  “What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus…Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! “

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 68 - Dick Mudge

F. Fishkin, Nov 22,  “The insurance industry hears about the outlook for automated vehicles. Co-author Dick Mudge joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 68 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus…Uber, GM Cruise, Waymo, VW and more. Tune in and subscribe!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV

F. Fishkin, Nov 1,  “California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state’s deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles

F. Fishkin, Sept 22 “In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety…and a champion racer. Beyond that….he’s an old high school friend of Alain’s! And there’s more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy

F. Fishkin, Sept 6,  “The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book “Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World”

Recent Highlights of:

                                                      [Two-way Vehicle Connectivity is a Three-sided Coin That Everyone Wants to Own](https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyomgyelgm4q6fl/Sena_Two-way%20Vehicle%20Connectivity_2-3.pdf?dl=0) M.
                                                      Sena, May 26,
                                                      "Two-way
                                                      vehicle
                                                      connectivity
                                                      has three
                                                      facets. Two of
                                                      them are
                                                      mainly of
                                                      interest to
                                                      vehicle OEMs
                                                      and their
                                                      suppliers.
                                                      They are
                                                      vehicle-centric
                                                      and
                                                      customer-centric. Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency
                                                      notification,
                                                      logistics
                                                      tracking and
                                                      over-the-air
                                                      updating.
                                                      Customer
                                                      centric
                                                      connectivity
                                                      includes many
                                                      services that
                                                      are also
                                                      provided by
                                                      mobile apps
                                                      outside of the
                                                      vehicle, such
                                                      as music
                                                      streaming,
                                                      workshop
                                                      service
                                                      booking,
                                                      traffic
                                                      notifications
                                                      and car
                                                      sharing
                                                      applications.
                                                      Two-way
                                                      vehicle
                                                      connectivity
                                                      today is a
                                                      major
                                                      competitive
                                                      factor for the
                                                      OEMs.

The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it….

                                                      But the debate
                                                      is not really
                                                      about
                                                      technology nor
                                                      is it about
                                                      who delivers
                                                      the best value
                                                      for the money
                                                      or the most
                                                      privacy. It is
                                                      about..."  [R](https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyomgyelgm4q6fl/Sena_Two-way%20Vehicle%20Connectivity_2-3.pdf?dl=0)[ead more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyomgyelgm4q6fl/Sena_Two-way%20Vehicle%20Connectivity_2-3.pdf?dl=0)  Hmmmm... The
                                                      provacateur's
                                                      lead at the
                                                      beginning of
                                                      our 3rd
                                                      Shark-Tank
                                                      Zoom-inar ([Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMNLH_fkcI4&feature=youtu.be),
                                                      [Audio](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/zoom-tank-06-02-20-everyone-is-for-connectivitybut))
                                                      Alain

Amazon in Advanced Talks to Buy Self-Driving-Car Tech Company Zoox C. Lombardo & T. Higgins, , May 26, “Amazon.com Inc. is in advanced talks to buy Zoox Inc. in a move that would expand the e-commerce giant’s reach in autonomous-vehicle technology. The companies are discussing a deal that would value Zoox at less than the $3.2B it achieved in a funding round in 2018…“  Read more Hmmmm… This would be a real bargain for Amazon and bring on some real talent to focus on the algorithmic side of driverless delivery while leveraging Rivian on the vehicle side.   See also Financial Times Alain

  Technology driving safer transport

H. Zhao, May 1, “This edition of ITU News Magazine discusses the latest trends in connected cars, new

                                                      ITU
                                                      initiatives to
                                                      improve smart
                                                      transportation
                                                      — and key
                                                      insights from
                                                      the annual
                                                      Symposium

                                                      on the Future
                                                      Networked Car
                                                      (FNC‑2020), a
                                                      gathering of
                                                      top experts
                                                      hosted by ITU
                                                      and UNECE.
                                                      Participants
                                                      at the 5 March
                                                      event
                                                      discussed the
                                                      technical,
                                                      business and
                                                      regulatory
                                                      actions
                                                      required to
                                                      build public
                                                      trust in
                                                      connected,
                                                      automated
                                                      vehicles.

They highlighted the state of the art in automotive cybersecurity. Together, they explored the status

                                                      and future of safety-critical radio‑ communications for the road, and they presented
                                                      the latest
                                                      developments
                                                      in the review
                                                      of regulations
                                                      governing road
                                                      transport.

FNC‑2020 participants also had the opportunity to consider the crucial role of the latest 5G connectivity technologies in delivering safer and more effective transport. Read on to learn about the experts’ insightful discussions at the event, how ITU’s work is supporting the development of Intelligent Transport Systems —

                                                      and what key
                                                      industry
                                                      players are
                                                      doing to
                                                      leverage the
                                                      power of ICTs
                                                      for better
                                                      transport."  [Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/83pfrexwacnnqy8/ConnectedCars2020_ITUNews01-en.pdf?dl=0) Hmmmm...
                                                      This topic
                                                      will be at the
                                                      heart on the
                                                      next Zoom-Tank
                                                      Zoom-inar on
                                                      June 1 (or
                                                      June 15??)@
                                                      2PM.  An
                                                      eloquent
                                                      summary of
                                                      this
                                                      topic/symposium
                                                      was presented
                                                      by Michael
                                                      Sena in his [April 2020 edition of The Dispatcher](https://www.dropbox.com/s/74cp2mjt2h0907w/The%20Dispatcher_April%202020.pdf?dl=0).
                                                        Alain

                                                      [Luminaries Battle In Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate About The Future Of Self-Driving Cars](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceeliot/2020/04/28/luminaries-battle-in-lincoln-douglas-style-debate-about-the-future-of-self-driving-cars/#35c0455028b6) Lance
                                                      Eliot, April
                                                      28, "Several
                                                      self-driving
                                                      car luminaries
                                                      assembled
                                                      online via a
                                                      Zoom-casted
                                                      battleground
                                                      this week to
                                                      undertake a
                                                      Lincoln-Douglas
                                                      style debate
                                                      about the
                                                      future of the
                                                      Autonomous
                                                      Vehicle (AV)
                                                      self-driving
                                                      car industry
                                                      and the advent
                                                      of AI-driven
                                                      mobility.

                                                      Originally
                                                      scheduled for
                                                      one hour, the
                                                      dialogue and
                                                      fielding of
                                                      audience
                                                      questions
                                                      prompted the
                                                      superstars to
                                                      keep going,
                                                      tackling many
                                                      of the most
                                                      vexing and
                                                      unsolved
                                                      matters that
                                                      underlie the
                                                      potential
                                                      success of
                                                      self-driving
                                                      vehicles,
                                                      encompassing
                                                      both
                                                      autonomous
                                                      cars and
                                                      autonomous
                                                      trucks.

                                                      The lively
                                                      discussion was
                                                      civil and
                                                      polite,
                                                      fortunately so
                                                      in these times
                                                      of seemingly
                                                      stark
                                                      polarization
                                                      and guttural
                                                      attacks during
                                                      our
                                                      contemporary
                                                      public
                                                      discourse.
                                                      Yet, even in
                                                      the realm of
                                                      eloquent
                                                      argumentation,
                                                      at times the
                                                      gloves came
                                                      off and there
                                                      were some
                                                      fierce zingers
                                                      and moments of
                                                      rather
                                                      piercing
                                                      cut-the-air-with-a-knife
                                                      verbal
                                                      sparring..."
                                                      [Read more](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceeliot/2020/04/28/luminaries-battle-in-lincoln-douglas-style-debate-about-the-future-of-self-driving-cars/#35c0455028b6) Hmmmm...  Lance, Thank you for
                                                      the kind and
                                                      thorough
                                                      synopsis of
                                                      our 1st
                                                      Zoom-inar.  We
                                                      were all
                                                      pleased by the
                                                      turnout,
                                                      interaction
                                                      and substance.
                                                         Alain

                                                      [What Negative Oil Prices Mean and How the Impact Could Last](https://www.nytimes.com/article/negative-oil-prices-facts-history.html) V.
                                                      Bajaj, April
                                                      22,"A main
                                                      benchmark for
                                                      the price of
                                                      oil fell
                                                      negative for
                                                      the first time
                                                      ever this
                                                      week. The
                                                      decline —
                                                      more than 300
                                                      percent in
                                                      daily trading
                                                      — raised fresh
                                                      questions
                                                      about the
                                                      damage the
                                                      coronavirus is
                                                      having on the
                                                      global
                                                      economy.

                                                      What does it
                                                      mean for oil
                                                      prices to be
                                                      negative?

                                                      A benchmark
                                                      price for a
                                                      barrel of oil
                                                      to be
                                                      delivered next
                                                      month fell to
                                                      -$37.63 on
                                                      Monday, which
                                                      means that
                                                      sellers would
                                                      have to pay
                                                      someone that
                                                      much to take
                                                      it off their
                                                      hands.

                                                      But that
                                                      historic
                                                      plunge was
                                                      exacerbated by
                                                      a quirk in how
                                                      the oil
                                                      markets work.

                                                      The negative
                                                      price
                                                      concerned only
                                                      contracts for
                                                      delivery of
                                                      barrels in May
                                                      that are
                                                      traded on
                                                      so-called
                                                      futures
                                                      markets. At
                                                      the same time
                                                      trading
                                                      happens for
                                                      May
                                                      deliveries,
                                                      people trade
                                                      on contracts
                                                      ending in
                                                      June, in July
                                                      and so on." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/article/negative-oil-prices-facts-history.html) Hmmmm... What???  I realize that
                                                      I'm often "out
                                                      of it",
                                                      but...  In all
                                                      my life I have
                                                      NEVER...
                                                      thought of,
                                                      let alone
                                                      mentioned, nor
                                                      have heard
                                                      anyone else
                                                      mention the
                                                      concept of negative
                                                      oil!
                                                      Often, talked
                                                      about $150/B
                                                      oil, $250/B,
                                                      S20/B even
                                                      $7/B oil.
                                                      NEVER $0/B
                                                      oil,
                                                      negative
                                                      Oil...
                                                      NEVER,NEVER,
                                                      NEVER!!!!  and
                                                      look where we
                                                      are.  UNBELIEVABLE!!!
                                                            Implications:...
                                                      no one's
                                                      models
                                                      extrapolate to
                                                      that regime.
                                                      (it requires
                                                      extrapolation
                                                      because no
                                                      data exists in
                                                      this
                                                      unimaginable
                                                      region.
                                                      Listen to [Pod-Cast](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-153);
                                                      Watch [Zoom-Cast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nW3AcoFeA8&feature=youtu.be)
                                                      Alain

                                                      [Can Robotaxis Survive A Pandemic?](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/04/13/can-robotaxis-survive-a-pandemic/#247ed3bd2ca6)

                                                      B. Templeton,
                                                      April, 13,
                                                      "Almost all
                                                      the
                                                      self-driving
                                                      car fleets are
                                                      out of
                                                      operation
                                                      right now. The
                                                      primary reason
                                                      is that
                                                      testing these
                                                      cars is not an
                                                      "essential
                                                      service" and
                                                      so the safety
                                                      drivers who
                                                      supervise them
                                                      are not
                                                      allowed to
                                                      come to work.
                                                      Most companies
                                                      use a team of
                                                      two people in
                                                      each car,
                                                      which would
                                                      create a
                                                      disease risk,
                                                      and to top it
                                                      off, the roads
                                                      are empty and
                                                      this
                                                      unnaturally
                                                      easy, making
                                                      testing less
                                                      valuable.

                                                      Questions
                                                      arise about
                                                      what happens
                                                      in the robocar
                                                      world if we
                                                      need to suffer
                                                      another
                                                      pandemic in
                                                      the future.
                                                      The Covid-19
                                                      crisis took
                                                      place before
                                                      the commercial
                                                      deployment of
                                                      robocars, but
                                                      that won't be
                                                      true later. I
                                                      covered some
                                                      issues in my
                                                      article on
                                                      delivery
                                                      robots, but
                                                      let's consider
                                                      what we've
                                                      learned this
                                                      year: Uber/Lyft
                                                      LYFT and Taxi
                                                      rides are way,
                                                      way down, and
                                                      not just
                                                      because all
                                                      travel is way
                                                      down
  • Transit ridership has cratered, and service has been cut

  • Delivery demand has vastly increased

  • People worry if drivers might be infectious

  • People don’t want to touch things, from seats to scooter handlebars, that others are touching

                                                        All travel is
                                                        way down, but
                                                        people are
                                                        particularly
                                                        suspicious of
                                                        travel with
                                                        other people,
                                                        be it transit,
                                                        or riding with
                                                        a driver. They
                                                        are also
                                                        concerned
                                                        about sitting
                                                        down in a
                                                        vehicle where
                                                        somebody else
                                                        just sat. With
                                                        parking
                                                        plentiful,
                                                        there are
                                                        incentives to
                                                        go back to
                                                        using your own
                                                        car even if
                                                        you previously
                                                        used something
                                                        else. Scooter
                                                        services like
                                                        Lime and Bird
                                                        have also
                                                        suffered major
                                                        declines.
    
                                                        As noted in
                                                        the delivery
                                                        article, while
                                                        delivery
                                                        robots are
                                                        always good in
                                                        a time when
                                                        there is a
                                                        massive surge
                                                        in demand for
                                                        delivery, it's
                                                        pretty easy
                                                        for a driver
                                                        in a van with
                                                        an automatic
                                                        door to never
                                                        have to touch
                                                        the packages,
                                                        just like a
                                                        delivery
                                                        robot. With
                                                        massive
                                                        unemployment,
                                                        human driven
                                                        vans are
                                                        probably the
                                                        best answer to
                                                        the delivery
                                                        demand
                                                        surge...."  [Read more](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/04/13/can-robotaxis-survive-a-pandemic/#247ed3bd2ca6) Hmmmm... Not a pretty picture,
                                                        but with every
                                                        challenge,
                                                        comes
                                                        opportunities...
                                                        Listen watch
                                                        more on [Pod-Cast_152](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-152)/[Zoom-Cast_152](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuIbtSJjDck&feature=youtu.be).
                                                        Alain
    

Autonomous shuttles help transport COVID-19 tests at Mayo Clinic in Florida

                                                      Press
                                                      release,
                                                      April, 2, "For
                                                      the first time
                                                      in the U.S.,
                                                      autonomous
                                                      vehicles are
                                                      being used to
                                                      transport
                                                      medical
                                                      supplies and
                                                      COVID-19 tests
                                                      at Mayo Clinic
                                                      in Florida.

                                                      At a time when
                                                      health care
                                                      resources and
                                                      staff are
                                                      stretched
                                                      thin, the
                                                      Jacksonville
                                                      Transportation
                                                      Authority
                                                      (JTA) has
                                                      partnered with
                                                      Beep and NAVYA
                                                      to use
                                                      autonomous
                                                      vehicles to
                                                      safely
                                                      transport
                                                      COVID-19 tests
                                                      collected at a
                                                      drive-thru
                                                      testing
                                                      location at
                                                      Mayo Clinic in
                                                      Florida.

                                                      "This
                                                      development is
                                                      a historic
                                                      moment for the
                                                      Jacksonville
                                                      Transportation
                                                      Authority,"
                                                      says Nathaniel
                                                      P. Ford, Sr.,
                                                      CEO of
                                                      Jacksonville
                                                      Transportation
                                                      Authority.
                                                      "Along with
                                                      our partners,
                                                      Beep, NAVYA
                                                      and Mayo
                                                      Clinic, we are
                                                      leveraging our
                                                      learnings from
                                                      three years of
                                                      testing
                                                      autonomous
                                                      vehicles
                                                      through our
                                                      Ultimate Urban
                                                      Circulator
                                                      program. Our
                                                      innovative
                                                      team saw this
                                                      as an
                                                      opportunity to
                                                      use technology
                                                      to respond to
                                                      this crisis in
                                                      Northeast
                                                      Florida and
                                                      increase the
                                                      safety of
                                                      COVID-19
                                                      testing."..."
                                                      [Read more](https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/autonomous-shuttles-help-transport-covid-19-tests-at-mayo-clinic-in-jacksonville/) Hmmmm... While not mentioned in
                                                      the article,
                                                      they
                                                      are operating Driverlessly... without attendant or safety driver.  Yea!!!  (People
                                                      aren't being
                                                      moved, just
                                                      goods and the
                                                      Operational
                                                      Design Domain
                                                      is
                                                      constrained,
                                                      but it it is
                                                      driverless
                                                      none the
                                                      less!)  Listen
                                                      watch more on
                                                      [Pod-Cast_151](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-151)/[Zoom-Cast_151](https://youtu.be/YAuqHS5W53c). Alain

  Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19

D. Hall, Mar 25, “… The result in late March 2020 has been one where a confluence of risks has come together. Additional operational and financial risks may emerge as additional events compound on the current situation. Actuaries will be watching for any additional risk events that layer on to the current environment, especially ones that may cause additional property, mortality and health risks such as catastrophic weather events. Morbidity, mortality, asset/liability management and operational risks are all a part of the initial and evolving story. This update to the Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key continuing and new features of the pandemic all around the world and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work…”   Read more Hmmmm… This is one of the best reports that I have seen and will be updated  every 10 days or so.   A good summary of the materials, podcasts and other good sources are here:

https://www.soa.org/resources/newsroom/covid-19-updates/#research

https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2020/impact-coronavirus/

ECDPC Daily data GitHub Covid19 data

Cases of COVID-19

Alain

###

###

###

###

Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead?

R. Bishop, Mar 24, “I met Stefan Seltz-Axmacher for the first time in November 2015 at the Florida Automated Vehicles Summit. Not long after, we met at the Blue Danube coffee shop in Alameda, CA so he could tell me about his vision for Starsky Robotics. When he energetically described his remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. “Remote driving is hard,” I said. “The military has struggled with this for years. Its harder than it looks.” On the technical side, latency for secure communications is challenging. On the operational side, re-creating enough on-road reality (situational awareness) for a remote driver is difficult when going for the high levels of safety needed. Seltz-Axmacher remained bullish on the approach and at that time went on to found Starsky Robotics as one of the earliest truck AV startups, later closing a $16.5M Series A funding round in March 2018, and then hauling freight while developing both remote and automated driving ability. Initially, Starsky’s concept was all about remote driving for first/last mile. They later expanded their offering to include fully automated highway driving on limited freight corridors.

                                                      Now, Starsky
                                                      has become the
                                                      first casualty
                                                      within a
                                                      crowded truck
                                                      automation
                                                      space, and
                                                      Seltz-Axmacher
                                                      has provided
                                                      us with an
                                                      intriguing
                                                      post-mortem in
                                                      a recent
                                                      Medium post.
                                                      Most of the
                                                      media coverage
                                                      I've seen has
                                                      acted as echo
                                                      chambers for
                                                      Seltz-Axmacher's
                                                      perspective.
                                                      Here I offer a
                                                      counterpoint
                                                      based on my
                                                      longtime
                                                      involvement in
                                                      truck
                                                      automation
                                                      plus
                                                      discussions
                                                      with many
                                                      others in the
                                                      truck
                                                      Automated
                                                      Driving
                                                      Systems (ADS)
                                                      startup space,
                                                      many of them
                                                      irate at what
                                                      they see as
                                                      unfounded
                                                      assertions
                                                      made in the
                                                      original post.
                                                      My sources
                                                      tell me that
                                                      because
                                                      Seltz-Axmacher
                                                      hasn't
                                                      experienced
                                                      their
                                                      technology nor
                                                      been briefed
                                                      on their
                                                      technical/safety
                                                      approach, he
                                                      has no basis
                                                      to make
                                                      sweeping
                                                      claims about
                                                      the entire
                                                      industry...."
                                                      [Read more](https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardbishop1/2020/03/24/starsky-robotics-failed-does-that-mean-automated-trucking-is-dead/#51d50d840c84) Hmmmm... [Listen to PodCast 148](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-148).
                                                      or/and [Watch us on YouTube](https://youtu.be/VkzPm5GwEz4).
                                                      Alain

 Waymo suspends robotaxi service except for its truly driverless vehicles K. Korosec, Mar. 17, “Waymo  said Tuesday it is pausing operations of Waymo One, a service in the Phoenix area that allows the public to hail rides in self-driving vehicles with trained human safety operators behind the wheel, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Waymo is also halting testing on public roads in California.

                                                      However, Waymo
                                                      will keep some
                                                      operations up
                                                      and running,
                                                      notably its
                                                      truly
                                                      driverless
                                                      vehicles,
                                                      which don't
                                                      require a
                                                      human safety
                                                      driver,
                                                      according to
                                                      an
                                                      announcement
                                                      on its website
                                                      Tuesday. These
                                                      driverless
                                                      vehicles are
                                                      used in the
                                                      Phoenix area
                                                      as part of
                                                      Waymo's early
                                                      rider program
                                                      that lets
                                                      vetted members
                                                      of the public
                                                      hail a
                                                      ride..."   [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/waymo-suspends-robotaxi-service-except-for-its-truly-driverless-vehicles/)  Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the
                                                      latest is not
                                                      so good...   [Waymo has suspended all services, including the driverless.](https://waymo.com/coronavirus)
                                                      Poopie!!!
                                                      Alain

NTSB slams Tesla, Apple and regulators over a fatal Autopilot crash

R. Mitchell, Feb. 25, “The nation’s top safety investigator slammed Tesla on Tuesday for failing to take adequate measures to prevent “foreseeable abuse” of its Autopilot driver-assistance technology, in a hearing into the fatal 2018 crash of a Tesla Model X SUV in Mountain View, Calif.

                                                      The National
                                                      Transportation
                                                      Safety Board
                                                      said
                                                      38-year-old
                                                      Walter Huang,
                                                      an Apple
                                                      software
                                                      engineer, had
                                                      Autopilot
                                                      engaged in his
                                                      2018 Tesla
                                                      Model X and
                                                      was playing a
                                                      video game on
                                                      his iPhone
                                                      when the car
                                                      crashed into a
                                                      defective
                                                      safety barrier
                                                      on U.S.
                                                      Highway
                                                      101.The board
                                                      also blamed
                                                      the highway
                                                      safety arm of
                                                      the U.S.
                                                      Department of
                                                      Transportation
                                                      for failing to
                                                      properly
                                                      regulate
                                                      rapidly
                                                      evolving
                                                      robot-car
                                                      technology....
                                                      The board
                                                      adopted[a long list of measures](https://t.co/mEFsCDf1dB)
                                                      meant to
                                                      reduce such
                                                      accidents as
                                                      "partially
                                                      automated
                                                      driving"
                                                      technologies
                                                      become more
                                                      popular in new
                                                      vehicles.... Sumwalt
                                                      made clear the
                                                      Mountain View
                                                      crash was not
                                                      an isolated
                                                      incident, but
                                                      illustrative
                                                      of the safety
                                                      issues
                                                      involved as
                                                      humans and
                                                      robot systems
                                                      increasingly
                                                      share the
                                                      driving, not
                                                      just in Teslas
                                                      but in
                                                      vehicles from
                                                      all
                                                      manufacturers.
                                                      "It's time to
                                                      stop enabling
                                                      drivers in any
                                                      partially
                                                      automated
                                                      vehicle to
                                                      pretend that
                                                      they have
                                                      driverless
                                                      cars," he
                                                      said.

…….  the Model X drove straight down the middle of a “gore lane,” a white-striped zone where cars aren’t supposed to go,” … It is clear from the images that the gore area was NOT white-striped as is supposed to be and the lane markings are badly worn.  Why didn’t NTSB fault the CA DoT for its poor maintenance and marking practices.  CA DoT needs to be severely reprimanded. “ … a Toyota Prius crashed into it 11 days earlier…” to what extent did NTSB investigate the Prius crash.  It didn’t have autoPilot, so that’s not the common factor.  I suspect that the confusing lane markings and the lack of striping is the root cause… “ … The car’s collision avoidance system did not detect the crash barrier.” … I suspect that this is NOT true.  The system detected the stationary object, but the coded logic disregards stationary objects (classifies them as false alarms) because false positives are too likely. NTSB made a similar error in the Joshua Brown crash where the system didn’t mis-identify the stationary trailer ahead as being background sky, but instead classified the stationary object in the lane ahead as a false positive . NTSB investigators have failed to ask the right questions in these investigations…

                                                      " ....The
                                                      car's forward
                                                      collision
                                                      warning system
                                                      did not
                                                      provide an
                                                      alert, and the
                                                      automatic
                                                      braking system
                                                      did not
                                                      activate."... Again, the system
                                                      classified
                                                      stationary
                                                      objects in the
                                                      lane ahead as
                                                      phantom
                                                      objects and
                                                      disregards
                                                      them.  Once
                                                      disregarded,
                                                      there is no
                                                      reason to
                                                      initiate a
                                                      warning or
                                                      apply
                                                      Emergency
                                                      Brakes.
                                                      Yipes!
                                                        [Read more](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-02-25/tesla-autopilot-crash-hearing) Hmmmm... Hopefully this will
                                                      curtail the
                                                      misbehavior in
                                                      the use of
                                                      these
                                                      systems.  The
                                                      Self-driving
                                                      systems
                                                      require
                                                      constant
                                                      adult
                                                      supervision. I
                                                      suspect that
                                                      NHTSA will
                                                      place
                                                      extraordinarily
                                                      onerous
                                                      regulations on
                                                      personally
                                                      owned
                                                      self-driving
                                                      cars that will
                                                      effectively
                                                      ban the
                                                      ability to
                                                      sleep, play
                                                      video games,
                                                      text or
                                                      otherwise be
                                                      non-vigilant
                                                      in all
                                                      non-driverless
                                                      vehicles.
                                                      Driverless
                                                      vehicles will
                                                      be required to
                                                      be operated
                                                      and maintained
                                                      by a
                                                      responsible
                                                      fleet manager
                                                      and not have
                                                      any straight
                                                      forward way
                                                      for a human to
                                                      drive them.
                                                      Certainly no
                                                      steering wheel
                                                      or pedals.  I
                                                      expect that
                                                      they'll also
                                                      ban the use of Stupid-Summon-like systems outside of one's own personal property.  They
                                                      should.
                                                      Alain

“Urbs,” “Burbs,” and the Immigration Locomotive

J. Hughes, Feb 2020, “Even more so than the nation, the broad fourstate, 35-county metropolitan region centered on New York City (figure 1) is becoming afflicted by a condition of demographic stagnation. While the United States has been experiencing the lowest population growth rates since the Great Depression, the region has only recently (2016–2018) slipped into absolute population decline, spawned by domestic outmigration. The major counterforce forestalling a demographic catastrophe has been positive international migration. Immigration has become the primary source of population growth—the demographic locomotive. Without it, the region would have to bear fully the economic consequences of what has become a virtual domestic population hemorrhage—a vast exodus of regional residents moving to the rest of the country. This is just one dimension of endemic demographic change that has swept the post–Great Recession world….

The second new reset is a turnaround of the pattern evidenced in the 2010–2016 period, when population growth in the “urbs” surpassed that of the “burbs.” After dominating growth early in the decade (2010–2016), the core—the urban heart of the metropolitan region encompassing New York City and three adjacent counties in New Jersey—suddenly slipped into decline post-2016, causing the region as a whole to lose population. This is the latest transformation in what has become a transmillennial demographic roller coaster ride… “   Read more Hmmmm… Most interesting Demographic Dynamic.   A must read. Alain

NHTSA Grants Nuro Exemption Petition for Testing Low-Speed Driverless Vehicle

2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about ‘Smaht Pahk’

                                                      S. Szymkowski,
                                                      Jan 27,
                                                      "Hyundai is
                                                      going all in
                                                      on Boston
                                                      accents and
                                                      the 2020
                                                      Sonata for its
                                                      Super Bowl
                                                      advertisement.
                                                      As is often
                                                      the trend
                                                      these days,
                                                      the ad made
                                                      its debut on
                                                      Monday less
                                                      than a week
                                                      before the big
                                                      game, but it's
                                                      quite a clever
                                                      spot...."  [Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/dk1wlzbg6rkpqkd/Smaht%20Pahk%20_%202020%20Hyundai%20Sonata%20_%20Hyundai-85iRQdjCzj0.mp4?dl=0) Hmmmm...  This is as
                                                      irresponsible
                                                      of Hyundai as
                                                      [StupidSummon](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20929438/tesla-smart-summon-use-one-million-q3-2019)
                                                      is for Tesla.
                                                      It may even be
                                                      more
                                                      irresponsible
                                                      because
                                                      Hyundai hasn't
                                                      included the over-the-air-information system that allows them to monitor its use.
                                                      Having the car
                                                      do stuff
                                                      without an
                                                      alert and
                                                      attentive
                                                      driver in the
                                                      driver's seat
                                                      implies
                                                      liability on
                                                      them (their
                                                      system) if
                                                      something bad
                                                      happens.
                                                      Plus,
                                                      squeezing a
                                                      car into a
                                                      parking place
                                                      when the
                                                      people can't
                                                      get into the
                                                      adjacent cars
                                                      is not the
                                                      smartest move
                                                      unless you've
                                                      also made the
                                                      Hyundai [key proof](https://jalopnik.com/keying-somebodys-car-is-just-about-the-worst-thing-you-1821884368).
                                                      There will be
                                                      retaliation.
                                                      Alain

The Disengagement Myth Kyle Vogt, Jan 17, “In a few weeks the California DMV will release disengagements data from Cruise and other companies who test AVs on public roads. This data is really great for giving the public a sense of what’s happening on the roads. Unfortunately, it has also been used by the media and others to compare technology from different AV companies or as a proxy for commercial readiness. Since it’s the only publicly available metric, I don’t really blame them for using it. But it’s woefully inadequate for most uses beyond those of the DMV. The idea that disengagements give a meaningful signal about whether an AV is ready for commercial deployment is a myth. …” Read more Hmmmm…  Amen!   This is a MUST read.  As with everything, details matter.  It is true that figures don’t lie, but but it is easy to game systems such that figures, without the underlying details, do lie.  As Kyle points out, there are important details associated with disengagements. These need to be well understood for disengagements to be a proxy for safety and market readiness. The when, where and associated details of each disengagement is critically important if the objective is safety and market readiness.

What is also most important here is the underlying objective of the companies doing the tests and reporting the data.  As has happened in our secondary education where students are taught what is in and how to take the SATs rather than just learn. The objective is not learning , but getting 800s on the SATs so that they can get into ‘Princeton’. This is perpetuated by the ‘Princetons’ of this world that don’t look into the details of the student’s academic qualities and capabilities. In the academic world, we know these students as ‘box checkers’, gamers of the college admission process.  The gaming is continued by the ‘banks and med schools’ that use simplistic GPA (Grade Point Average, aka ‘disengagements’) cutoffs.  The ‘box checkers’ then take ‘underwater basket weaving’ courses and become grade grubbers. It is lazy and irresponsible to use simplistic measures as proxies to very complex concepts such as intelligence, creativity, compatibility, and all the other details that make a good student, a good employee, a good citizen, a good mobility system.

In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to “make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear” or “putting lipstick on the pig”. It is easy to game the metric ‘Disengagements’ by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don’t know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self.  The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.

I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM’s lawyers and GM’s board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe.  The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? Alain

###

### Hmmmm… Reflections

A. Kornhauser, Jan 12,    Hmmmm…   Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I’m about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard.  It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don’t sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the ‘chrome and fins’ that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only ‘Waymo-style Driverless’ (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain

A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6,    Hmmmm…   I’m in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers.  They each helped. I’m looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don’t feel well, get evaluated by a doctor.  I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain

  Chandler unveils drop-off, pick-up zone for self-driving cars G. Zetino, Nov. 25, ““It’s about to get easier for self-driving cars to drop off and pick up passengers in Chandler.   The city of Chandler, in partnership with Waymo, on Friday unveiled the nation’s first drop-off and pick-up zone for autonomous ride-hailing cars.

Read more  Hmmmm…   The iconic image:

autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system’s Operational Design Domain.  The first of what may well become a half million or so others.  Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can’t or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain

Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida R. Wile, Nov 22, “Sen. Jeff Brandes (R-St. Petersburg) had just finished serving in the Army, and was looking to make a name for himself in Tallahassee as a junior representative. He came across a talk given by the founder of Google’s driverless car project.

                                                  He quickly
                                                  realized the
                                                  potential of
                                                  self-driving cars
                                                  to transform many
                                                  aspects of daily
                                                  life. Ever since,
                                                  he has made it his
                                                  mission to turn
                                                  Florida into what
                                                  he calls "an angel
                                                  investor" in
                                                  automation policy.
                                                  "We want to have
                                                  policies in place
                                                  for this
                                                  technology to
                                                  flourish," Brandes
                                                  said in an
                                                  interview at the
                                                  7th Annual Florida
                                                  Automated Vehicles
                                                  conference in
                                                  Miami, which
                                                  concluded Friday.

Brandes has drawn headlines in the tech community for filing legislation allowing virtually any automated vehicle on Florida’s roads; this summer, he helped make Florida one of the first states to make AVs without a human back-up safety driver street legal.

                                                  Among the state's
                                                  advantages Brandes
                                                  points to that he
                                                  believes makes it
                                                  ideal for AV
                                                  companies: no
                                                  snow, which makes
                                                  lane markings more
                                                  visible. That also
                                                  means less road
                                                  construction in
                                                  general...."  [Read more](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article237625484.html)  Hmmmm...  Congratulations Jeff!!!
                                                      It was a great
                                                      AV Summit and congratulations on creating such a Welcoming environment and
                                                      intelligently
                                                      shaping the
                                                      birth of this
                                                      technology.
                                                      What you've
                                                      done is enable
                                                      Florida to
                                                      begin to
                                                      enhance
                                                      mobility and
                                                      the quality of
                                                      life for all
                                                      in Florida
                                                      and especially
                                                      those who can
                                                      most benefit
                                                      from these
                                                      mobility
                                                      machines.  It
                                                      was most
                                                      impressive to
                                                      witness the
                                                      enthusiasm for
                                                      nurturing the
                                                      many aspects of this technology from Florida's
                                                      Governor,
                                                      Miami's Mayor,
                                                      Fl DoT's
                                                      Commissioner,
                                                      the heads of
                                                      the toll road
                                                      authorities,
                                                      planning
                                                      agencies and
                                                      educational
                                                      institutions.
                                                      Most
                                                      impressive was
                                                      Ford's comment
                                                      that their
                                                      autonomousTaxi
                                                      efforts are
                                                      focused on
                                                      developing
                                                      driverless
                                                      technology and
                                                      intend to
                                                      operate it to
                                                      deliver
                                                      Mobility-as-a-Service
                                                      in Florida,
                                                      rather than
                                                      sell the
                                                      technology to
                                                      individual
                                                      consumers.  I
                                                      applaud that
                                                      approach and
                                                      hope that Ford
                                                      will look to
                                                      also bringing
                                                      some of those
                                                      vehicles to
                                                      New Jersey so
                                                      that we can
                                                      begin to reap
                                                      the benefits
                                                      of this
                                                      technology.
                                                      What you've
                                                      accomplished
                                                      in Florida is
                                                      THE "best
                                                      practice" for
                                                      us to emulate
                                                      in New
                                                      Jersey.
                                                      Congratulations.
                                                        Alain

PyTorch at Tesla

                                                      November 1,
                                                      2019

An Update on the Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems

                                                    October 18, 2019

 Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

Your Tesla Can Now Pick You Up R. Mitchell, Oct. 4, “ Smart Summon is for parking lot use.  But drivers have other ideas.

Tesla unleashed the latest twist in driverless car technology last week, raising more questions about whether autonomous vehicles are outracing public officials and safety regulators.

…Using a smartphone, a person can now command a Tesla to turn itself on, back out of a parking space and drive to the smartphone holder’s location - say at a curb in front of a Costco store..”  Read more  Hmmmm…. Russ, great article. A must read!

Elon, please stop.  StupidSummon was a bad Valley-entitled idea before you released it.  Now that it is out there it will ruin all that is good about Tesla, AutoPilot and Driverless cars.  The shorters are going to have a field day.

While you are at it also remove all of the DistractTainment add ons or limit their use when AutoPilot is NOT on and drivers are engaged in driving.  Just go back to V09!  Along the way also get the Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) system to work properly (See NTSBbelow). To do that, maybe you should take a serious look at Velodyne’s new Tesla LiDAR. It may be able to tell you if the stationary object in the lane ahead is high enough above the road surface before your AEB system decides to disregard it. Then Tesla’s may stop decapitating drivers.

If you don’t remove StupidSummon then at least be sure to limit its use to the Tesla owner’s own private property by responsible users. (You know the GPS coordinates of where each owner lives, so you can geofence it.  You also know each irresponsible use (You get the videos). Irresponsible use (use in the violation of the conditions spelled out in the user’s manual) should void its future availability in that car unless proper amend are made.  If not, then insurance companies should clearly state that insuring the use of this feature requires a substantial additional premium; else, you’re not covered.  Courts should view that use of this feature implies premeditated harm and demonstrates an extreme indifference to human life. Parking Lot owners should install signs forbidding the use of this feature on their property to protect themselves from being dragged into the claims process.

What is most disturbing about this feature is that its only value is to enhance the self-perceived manhood of Entitled Silicon Valley XXs and may well cause the public sector to over react and ruin to opportunity of responsible driverless mobility to substantially enhance the quality-of-life of those who can’t or choose not to drive a car, enhance the environment, subdue our energy use and reduce congestion. Elon, shame on you September 28, 2019 Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton K. Knapp, Sept 22, “What would it take to make Princeton an accessible community for all, even those who cannot or choose not to own or drive a car? Princeton Future will explore the question at a public forum from 9 a.m. to noon on Sept. 28 in the community room at the Princeton Public Library.

                                        Princeton Future is a
                                        non-profit community group
                                        that studies issues related
                                        to planning, development,
                                        and affordability. Speakers
                                        will discuss the
                                        capabilities of a
                                        transit-on-demand system
                                        where small, driverless
                                        shuttles could be summoned
                                        by a smart phone app to a
                                        location within walking
                                        distance of a resident's
                                        home...."  [Read more](https://planetprinceton.com/2019/09/22/public-forum-will-explore-possibility-of-transit-on-demand-in-princeton/)  Hmmmm....
                                              Listen to a summary of
                                              the event in [Episode 126 of the SmartDrivingCars PodCasts](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-126). See
                                              below for other info.
                                              Alain
                                                September 20, 2019 [Waymo's robotaxi pilot surpassed 6,200 riders in its first month in California](https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/16/waymos-robotaxi-pilot-surpassed-6200-riders-in-its-first-month-in-california/)

                                                August 17, 2019

Autonomous Vehicles:  A View from Seniors

                                              March 29, 2019

Automated vehicles could provide mobility to the ‘mobility disadvantaged’

  FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT Lyft, Inc. Autonomous Vehicles Feb 25, “ This workshop brought together experts in cyber-physical systems, machine learning, transportation engineering, and applied mathematics, both from academia and from industry, to help bridge the technical gaps and to facilitate exchange and collaboration across disciplinary boundaries…“  Read more Hmmmm…. Slides and videos of the presentations are available here.   In particular, see..:

  • Andrea Censi: “Liability, Ethics, and Culture-Aware Behavior Specification using Rulebooks”  Abstract, Slides, video (via click on  Schedule 11:30 Monday;

  • Adam Oberman:”Generalization and adversarial robustness of Regularized Deep Neural Networks “ Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Tuesday);

  • Alain Kornhauser: “Market Forces and Market Potential for SmartDrivingCars (aka Autonomous Vehicles) “  Slides,video, (via click on  Schedule 11:15 Tuesday);

  • Hani Mahmassani: “Shared Autonomous Fleet Services and Multimodal Urban Mobility: Optimization, Prediction and Dynamic Network Modeling “  Abstract, video, (via click on  Schedule 4:00 Thursday);

  Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems

New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles

Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors:  Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)

Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164 Sponsors:  Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)

                                    Oct 16, [Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541](https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2018/Bills/A5000/4541_I1.PDF)
                                    Sponsors:  Zwicker (D16); Benson
                                    (D14); Lampitt (D6)..."   [Read more](https://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/NVIDIA-Self-Driving-Safety-Report-2018.pdf) Hmmmm....
                                                      Things are
                                                      beginning to
                                                      move in New
                                                      Jersey.  Alain

Testimony of Alain Kornhauser, Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM

Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM

                                            New Roman"">Tuesday,
                                            June 12,  2018  [CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS](http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M215/K467/215467801.PDF)

                                            New Roman"">Sunday,
                                            June 3,  2018

  Waymo’s fleet of self-driving minivans is about to get 100 times bigger

PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)

May 24, “About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.

…The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency

                                        braking, known as City
                                        Safety, as well as functions
                                        for detecting driver
                                        alertness and road sign
                                        information. All these Volvo
                                        functions are disabled when
                                        the test vehicle is operated
                                        in computer control..."[Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/NTSBuberPreliminaryMay2018.pdf)  Hmmmm....
                                                Uber must believe
                                                that its systems are
                                                better at avoiding
                                                Collisions and
                                                Automated Emergency
                                                Braking than Volvo's.
                                                At least this gets
                                                Volvo "off the
                                                hook".

“…According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph…” (= 63 feet/second) So the system started “seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away… more than a football field, including end zones!

“…As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path…” (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this “object’ as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected “future travel paths.”  Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber’s system attached to the “object”, then the “vehicle”.  Why didn’t the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision?  If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren’t they accurate?  Why was the object classified as a “Vehicle” ?? When did it finally classify the object as a “bicycle”? Why did it change classifications? How often was the classification of this object done. Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object. In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a “pedestrian”when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber’s Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)

“…At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision” (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.

“…According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. …” NTSB:  Please describe/define potential  and erratic vehicle behavior   Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating “ “erratic vehicle behavior”.  This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber system’s false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.

“…The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. “ Wow!  If Uber’s system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past “Peak valuation”.

“…The system is not designed to alert the operator. “ That may be the only good part of Uber’s design.  In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don’t waste your time.  If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast 30 and the 24 edition of May 10,  2018 March 24,  2018 Experts say video of Uber’s self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail

                                            April 17, 2017

Don’t Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto

Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving

announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles

Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars Video similar to part of Adam’s Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1.  Hmmm … Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above!  Also see his TipRanks. Alain

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