8.25 - Birthday
edition of the 8th year of SmartDrivingCars
Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19, June 12, 2020
R. Dale Hall, June 12, "...By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines...." Read more
Hmmm... Excellent! An enormous amount here. See especially FIg 11 and 17. These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, ... An enormous amount to digest here. Excellent. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 160 - Jessica Cicchino
F. Fishkin, June 12, "Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Research VP Jessica Cicchino co-authored a new study saying self driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to discuss the study. Plus the latest on Tesla, Ford & VW, Covid-19 and more. " "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 160 - Jessica Cicchino
Video version of SmartDrivingCars PodCast 160 .... Alain
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 004Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
Live: Tuesday, June 23, 2:00pm New York Time
Free Pre-registration is required
Self-driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes
Press release, June 2, "Driver mistakes play a role in virtually all crashes. That's why automation has been held up as a potential game changer for safety. But autonomous vehicles might prevent only around a third of all crashes if automated systems drive too much like people, according to a new study from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety....
But the Institute's analysis suggests that only about a third of those crashes were the result of mistakes that automated vehicles would be expected to avoid simply because they have more accurate perception than human drivers and aren't vulnerable to incapacitation. To avoid the other two-thirds, they would need to be specifically programmed to prioritize safety over speed and convenience..." Read more
Hmmm... Repeat of nsertion that was in SDC 8.24 last week. As I noted, this is NOT good news. However, as is often the case, details matter. After reading the Report: "What humanlike errors do autonomous vehicles need toavoid to maximize safety?" by A. Mueller, J.Cicchono and D. Zuby, the fundamental assumption is that the AV system functions only make the best out of driver misbehavior rather than being pro-active and precluding the driver from misbehaving. Baically the assumption is "let drivers be drivers and have the AV system clean up the mess as best it can. Drivers can continue to misbehave by tailgating, speeding, running red lights, crossing double lines when traffic is on-coming, driving into fog, hurricanes, ice covered roads, un-plowed deep knee-deep snow-covered lanes, get too close to bikers, etc.
The "AV system" considered in this study is basically limited to driver warnings and some automated collision avoidance. It's "Tesla's AutoPilot" improved with an automated collison avoidance system that doesn't disregard stationary objects ahead. Sure! Under these circumstances, reducing at-fault crashes for the average driver by 30% is actually doing really well! But that's not a "Safe-driving Car"!
A Safe-driving Car is one that has enough perception of the road ahead to enable it to over-ride driver misbehaviors. It doesn't let the driver tailgate, speed excessively, run red lights, cross double lines when there is on-coming traffic, .... . Such an AV system has an opportunity to reduce at-fault crashes much more substantially. These capabilities are absolutely necessary in Driverless cars with the added avantage that they don't have a human driver working against the safe operation of the system.
Of course, Safe-driving cars and Driverless cars are not immune from being T-boned by a conventional car running a red light, or having a bicyclist run into them, or ... . Some folks will prefer to not own a Safe-driving car or not use driverless mobility. For them, it is important that at least their insurance premiums reflect the carnage and expected liability of their at-fault driver behavior. Their insurance premiums should be very expensive. These issues and others will likely come up during our next Zoom-Tank Zoom-inar now scheduled for 2:00pm, Tuesday, June 23 focused on Insurance and SmartDrivingCars. Alain
Are Tesla Vehicles The Most Dangerous Cars On The Road?
S. Loveday, June 10, Due to the selective nature of reports in the media, as well as the focus on negative and bad news over positive reports, some people may be concerned about buying a Tesla. It will catch fire, it accelerates on its own when you least expect it, and its Autopilot system might cause a crash.
While all of these things "could" happen, they're arguably not likely to happen any more often in a Tesla or any electric car than they are in a gas car. In fact, there's plenty of research that suggests EVs are less likely to catch fire, driver-assist systems save many more lives than they take, and sudden unintended acceleration is much more unlikely than driver error.
Over the years, we've seen news of Tesla fires. Now, as more electric cars come to market, we're getting reports of other automaker's EVs catching fire....
Just like the fires, we've seen our fair share of Tesla crashes involving Autopilot....
'More recently, there have been plenty of claims of sudden unintended acceleration in Tesla's vehicles. Thus far, none have been proven....
According to official crash tests and car fire statistics, the answer is very much the opposite. In order to put all the information in one place and set the record straight, Electric Future produced the above video with all the numbers....'' Read more
Hmmm... Again, Tesla has the fundamental user data that can go a very long way to characterize even the nuances of Tesla's safety. I can understand the many reasons that Tesla doesn't want to release the data. A major one beng that comparable data doesn't exist for any of the other cars on the road.
Since safety is realy a relative perception, rather than an absolute fact, fighting relative perception with facts is ususally futile and often counter productive. Never the less, and especially since Tesla is close to being the most valuable auto OEM, I call on Tesla to lead. Bring real transparancy to safety. Release your undelying safety data to independent scholarly investigators. Short of that, I recommend whatching InsideEV's video. While watchng, also please think "driver misbehavior" every time you hear "driver error". Alain
Tesla stock soars above $1,000 as Musk vows to "go all out" for Semi
T. Lee, June 10, "Tesla's stock price soared above $1,000 on Wednesday. The rise pushed the company's valuation to around $190 billion—within striking distance of the world's most valuable car company, Toyota, at $215 billion.
Tesla's stock surge comes a week after one of Tesla's leading electric vehicle rivals, Nikola, debuted its stock on public markets. Like Tesla, Nikola is building all-electric vehicles. But there are a couple of big differences. First, while Tesla initially focused on passenger cars, Nikola will initially sell trucks along with off-road vehicles and a jet ski. Second, while Tesla cars run on batteries, Nikola is focusing on fuel cells—though some vehicles will have a battery option.
Nikola's first week on the stock market has been strong, with the stock price nearly doubling to reach Wednesday's closing price of $65. This makes Nikola worth nearly $30 billion—on par with Ford—before it has shipped its first vehicle.
Nikola's debut on the stock market apparently got Elon Musk's attention. In a Wednesday email to staff, Musk reportedly wrote that it was "time to go all out" and bring the long-delayed Tesla Semi to market. The Semi was initially planned for production in 2019, but Tesla recently admitted that the ship date would slip to 2021. Two years ago, Nikola sued Tesla, arguing that Tesla's design for the semi was too similar to Nikola's own semitruck design. That legal battle continues to this day...." Read more
Hmmm... Who knew that the truck business was incrementally worth that much. Wow! Alan
Transportation lab predicts "extreme traffic" for some cities following COVID-19
M. Shapiro, June 5, "As communities and cities across America embark on paths for reopening, a transportation group at Vanderbilt is asking the question: What will traffic look like if transit riders become car drivers?
A new article, published online by the Work Research Group at Vanderbilt, takes a hard look at transportation modes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic using mathematical analysis and basic laws of traffic to explore scenarios of increased car commuting. Through their work, the researchers predict a sweeping switch to single-occupancy vehicle commuting and resulting risk for extreme traffic in large metro areas.
The article, titled "The Rebound," is available online: https://lab-work.github.io/therebound/..." Read more
Hmmm...Be sure to read the paper. Many caveats and assumptions (as always when looking into the future), but really good. Alain
Temple Grandin, Elon Musk And The Interesting Parallels Between Autonomous Vehicles And Autism
R. Razdan, June 7, ":..."For the last decade, autonomous vehicles have been attempting to become operational with great fanfare with companies such as Waymo(Google) and Musk's Tesla TSLArolling out solutions. Interestingly, in a similar period of time, an increasing number of people with autism have wanted to join the driving public, and this has prompted research studies on their effectiveness in the driving task. This is reported in an excellent and fascinating New York Times NYT article "The Challenge of Driving With Asperger's." Several comments in the article are directly on-point relative to autonomous vehicles:...
Finally, the commonality brings up a more basic question: Shouldn't AVs pass at least the same tests as outlined in the guideline from the autism institute ? It seems somehow illogical that one would allow an AV on the road in a situation where there was a determination that a human should not drive." Read more
Hmmm... Very interesting!! Alain
Watch Tesla's latest Autopilot software handle a roundabout
F. Lambert, June 11, "A new video shows Tesla's latest Autopilot software handling the steering automatically in a full roundabout. As we previously reported, Tesla is going through "a significant foundational rewrite in the Tesla Autopilot." As part of the rewrite, CEO Elon Musk says that the "neural net is absorbing more and more of the problem."
It will also include a more in-depth labeling system. Musk described 3D labeling as a game-changer:... " Read more
Hmmmm... Watch video. Alain
Ford, Volkswagen Sign Agreements for Joint Projects On Commercial Vehicles, EVs, Autonomous Driving
Press release, June 10, "Ford Motor Company and Volkswagen AG today signed agreements that expand their global alliance to meet rapidly evolving needs of their respective customers in Europe and other regions by leveraging complementary strengths in midsize pickup trucks and commercial and electric vehicles. Plans for the agreements were first announced by Ford and Volkswagen last July..." Read more
Hmmmm... More official details about the agreement that we've been follwoing for a while. Alain
Volkswagen's Trailer Assist Video
2016??? "VW faking it to promote their "Trailer Assist capability" See video
Hmmm... Cute but givenDieselgate, VW should be careful in its efforts to fool the public. They must have better things to do. Alain
Top Tesla investor bets flying taxis are the future, taking a stake in German start-up Lilium
R. Browne, June 8, "Baillie Gifford, Tesla's top external investor, has invested $35 million in Lilium, a German start-up vying to become a major player in the emerging "air taxi" space.
Munich-headquartered Lilium made waves last year with the maiden flight of its five-seater electric aircraft, the Lilium Jet. The vehicle takes off and lands vertically, similar to a helicopter, but is powered by 36 electric jet engines placed in two sets of wings.
The firm has now secured a valuation of more than $1 billion thanks to an extension of a $240 million investment round announced earlier this year, raising it into the ranks of Europe's unicorn companies. Baillie Gifford has taken a less than 5% stake in Lilium. The fresh funding takes Lilium's total investment to date to more than $375 million. The company's other backers include Tencent, Atomico, Freigeist and LGT...." Read more
Hmmmm... I'm still not a fan of toys for the 1%ers. I doubt that its value is CBD2CBD, but instead Village2Village (Hamptons2SuburbanOffice). CBD office towers are doomed in the NewNormal. Has good videos. Alain
SPACEX MARS CITY: ELON MUSK CONFIRMS HE'S STICKING TO AMBITIOUS LAUNCH DATE M. Brown, June 5, "SpaceX wants to build a city on Mars, and it's not waiting around to get started. On Friday, CEO Elon Musk confirmed via Twitter that he's still aiming to launch the first ships to Mars by 2022. These ships will hold cargo designed to support a future manned mission. That mission will come in 2024, the next time when the Earth and Mars are close again..." Read more
Hmmmm... While much crazier, I'm a fan of this. A dream that died 50 years ago, not seems almost doable. If you haen't seen Musk's 2017 vision, see it here. Alain
New Roman""> DraftPrinceton SmartDrivingCar Summit Postponed until Evening Oct. 20 through Oct. 22, 2020 (Maybe???) A. Kornhauser, Feb 6, "The focus of the Summit this year will be moving beyond the AI and the Sensors to addressing the challenges of Commercialization and the delivery of tangible value to communities. We've made enormous progress with the technology. We're doing the investment; however, this investment delivers value only if is commercialized: made available and is used by consumers in large numbers. Demos and one-offs are "great", but to deliver value that is anywhere near commensurate with the magnitude of the investment made to date, initial deployments need to scale. We can't just have "Morgantown PRT Systems" whose initial deployment has been nothing but enormously successful for 45 years (an essentially perfect safety record, an excellent availability record and customer valued mobility). Unfortunately, the system was never expanded or duplicated anywhere. It didn't scale. It is a one-off.
Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale. In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va. which became the reference for many other cites. "... By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague's equipment had been begun or planned on several continents..." Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology. It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.
In part, the 4th Summit will focus on defining the "Richmond" of Affordable Shared-ride On-demand Mobility-as-a-Service. The initial Operational Design Domain (ODD) that safely accommodates Driverless Mobility Machines that people actually choose to use and becomes the envy of communities throughout the Read more
Hmmmm... Draft Program is in flux. Consider all named individuals as "Invited yet to be confirmed". Alain
C'mon Man!(These
folks didn't get/read the memo)
Sunday
Supplement
Half-Baked
Samsung AR glasses patent shows off turn-by-turn navigation function
S. Szymkowski, June 3, "... In a patent filed in South Korea, Samsung partially describes a pair of glasses with AR functions that can provide turn-by-turn navigation right in front of the driver's eyes. Essentially, it sounds a bit like a head-up display of the kind some cars provide in the windshield, but in this case, it's directly ahead of the driver, thanks to the glasses...." Read more
Hmmmm...As if heads up displays weren't annoying enough, last thing one needs are turn-by-turn directions in your face which ever way you turn your head. Yipes!!! So bad! So annoying!! Alain
Click-Bait
Calendar
of Upcoming Events:s
New Roman""> SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 004 AV Shark-Tank:
Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
Live Tuesday, June 23 @ 2pm New York Time
Evening Oct. 20 -> Oct 22.
SmartDrivingCar Summit
Princeton University Princeton, NJ
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 159, Zoom-Cast Episode 159 w/Kara Kockelman
F. Fishkin, June 4, "Prof. Kara Kockelman's focus on smart transportation to save lives, money and the environment has made her a sought after global expert. The U. of Texas Transportation Engineering Professor joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on the impact of Covid-19 and much more. Plus Tesla, Uber, Argo AI and the top smart driving headlines. For more on Dr. Kockelman's work....please visit... http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 158, Zoom-Cast Episode 158 w/Chunka Mui
F. Fishkin, May 28, "In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, what are the smartest ways to re-build and plan for the future? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Amazon, Zoox, Intel Mobileye, Tesla, Uber and more." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 157, Zoom-Cast Episode 157 w/Grayson Brulte
F. Fishkin, May 21, "Global auto makers must completely re-think their autonomous mobility strategy as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. So says innovation strategist Grayson Brulte of Brulte & Company....who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Waymo, Tesla, Uber and more."
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-inar 002 The Future of Public Roadway Transit
(Will the Bus be Thrown Under the Bus?)
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Zoom-inar Video (Video replay)Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
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PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 156, Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 156 w/Danny Shapiro2
F. Fishkin, May 14, "With new hardware and software capabilities NVIDIA is expanding into new areas of driver assistance technology. Sr. Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Waymo, Voyage, Ford and more. listen and subscribe!" "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 155, Zoom-Cast Episode 155 w/Alex Roy2
F. Fishkin, April 29, "The continuing impact of Covid-19 on autonomous vehicle progress. But it may not be all bad news. Alex Roy...host of the No Parking Podcast and Director of Special Operations at Argo AI joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Intel, Lyft, Uber and more. Listen and subscribe!"
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 154, Zoom-Cast Episode 154 w/Dan Sperling
F. Fishkin, April 29, "Can ride sharing rebound after the pandemic? Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo, Ford and more."
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-inar 001 The Driverless New Normal Debate
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SmartDrivingCar PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Driverless New Normal Debate
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Zoom Audience Questions (Only a few were addressed in Zoom-inar)
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Zoom Audience Comments
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 153, Zoom-Cast Episode 153 w/Dick Mudge2
F. Fishkin, April 17, "The plummeting price of oil and what it may mean for mobility, ride sharing and the economy.. Dick Mudge, founder and president of Compass Transportation & Technology joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus GM, Uber and more on the Coronavirus impact."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 152, Zoom-Cast Episode 152 w/Brad Templeton
F. Fishkin, April 17, "Can robotaxis survive a pandemic? Internet pioneer, self driving car consultant and author Brad Templeton joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in a wide ranging chat on the impact today and the future. Plus...Uber, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla and more." "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 151, Zoom-Cast Episode 151 w/Joe Moye
F. Fishkin, April 9, "In the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic, fully autonomous, driverless vehicles are carrying medical supplies and Covid-19 tests to the Mayo Clinic in Florida. They're provided by Beep and the CEO, Joe Moye, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that, plus the latest from Nuro, Tesla and more."
SmartDrivingCars Podcast Episode 150 - Andrei Greenawalt
F. Fishkin, April 3, "Coronavirus devastates transportation and mobility. How does it recover? Matthew Daus, former NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission chairman, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and much more. Watch, subscribe, and find us
Video version... Watch episode 150 with Andrei Greenawalt
SmartDriving CarsPodcast Episode 149 - Matt Daus
F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, "The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also...Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!" ... Alain
Video version... Watch episode 149 with Matt Daus.... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Podcast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop
F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, "The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also...Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!" ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop Video version... Watch our first attempt.... Alain
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Mar. 14, "From Sweden...The Dispatcher editor Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin as Covid-19 takes a toll on Waymo, Uber and more. Plus Saving the Car Industries in the U.S. and the EU... the latest from Future Networked Car 2020 in Geneva and more." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes
F. Fishkin, Feb 15, "What shifting populations mean for the future of mobility and transportation. Leading expert Jim Hughes of Rutgers University joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Tesla, GM, Comma AI's inexpensive autopilot, Aptiv, Lyft and more. Tune in and subscribe! "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy
F. Fishkin, Feb 7, "The latest glossary of BS in mobility, self driving and autonomy from author, podcaster and cannonball driver Alex Roy on Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the news from Tesla, Nuro, Waymo, GM and more! " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 140 - C. Mericli
F. Fishkin, Jan 31, "How self driving tech can increase profits in the trucking industry. Locomation's CEO joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Waymo's partnership with UPS, Tesla's rocket ride, Hyundai's Smart Park Super Bowl ad and more. " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O'Toole
F. Fishkin, Jan 25, "Adaptive cruise control and self driving tech may lead to more urban sprawl. But the Cato Institute's Randal O'Toole says maybe that isn't a bad thing. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Subaru's tech, GM's Cruise, Tesla and more on the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This edition is sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information…head to www.motoetf.com "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart
F. Fishkin, Jan 18, "The new mobility on the ground and in the air. Nicolas Zart joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for a discussion on Urban Air Mobility...plus..Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Mobileye, Waymo and more in this edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136
F. Fishkin, Jan 6, "He's back! Princeton's Alain Kornhauser...still on the mend ...but opinionated as ever...joins co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the latest from Waymo, Tesla and more in Episode 136 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. " Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson
F. Fishkin, Dec 5, "In this special edition... the launch of a new exchange traded fund focused on smart transportation and technology. Guinness Atkinson Asset Management CEO Jim Atkinson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus..a push by the Coalition for Future Mobility for action in Washington, AutoX wants driverless testing in California and Aptiv grows in Pittsburgh. "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Nov. 1, "An updated outlook for automated vehicles...Tesla, Waymo , Ford, VW and more. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by guests Michael Sena and Dick Mudge in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 126 - Sturges & Caudill F. Fishkin, Sept 19 , "From the public library in Princeton, NJ... a special edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast following a public forum conducted by Princeton Future on the potential for transit on demand for all. Join Princeton professor Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and special guests for that...plus...the latest on Waymo, Tesla, Hyundai, Aptiv and more. " Pictures from the Princeton Future Public Forum on Driverless Mobility for All.
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 121 - Ken Pyle F. Fishkin, Aug 22 , "Daimler and Bosch hold a community meeting in San Jose as they ready plans for autonomous vehicle testing. Community board member Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Waymo, Tesla and more."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 116 - Jerome Lutin F. Fishkin, July 20, "Can technology dramatically improve the safety of bus transportation for pedestrians, riders and drivers? The lead investigator in a national study, Jerry Lutin, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on episode 116 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Plus...Tesla's new safety report, the latest from Lyft, Aptiv and a NY Times report on why driverless cars are taking longer than expected. Tune in and subscribe!."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM F. Fishkin, June 9, "Should the insurance industry be pushing more safety and autonomous tech in cars? It's a win, win says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser. Joining him in the discussion along with co-host Fred Fishkin is NJM's John Hardiman, a board member of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Also...Fiat Chrysler, Ford and more."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot F. Fishkin, May 25, " The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus...Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup
F. Fishkin, May 18, "Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It's just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit Leilei Shinohara & Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell
F. Fishkin, May 18, "In this special edition from the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit, Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by RoboSense VP Leilei Shinohara on the LiDAR's benefits. And view of autonomous technology from law enforcement with New York State Police
Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell." Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley
F. Fishkin, May 18, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, David Kidd from the Highway Loss Data Institute joins Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin and then on site preliminary research results on mobility for all with Cecilia Feeley and Andrea Lubin from Rutgers."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund
F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 100 - Andrei Greenawalt'99/Via
April 5, F. Fishkin, "The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena'69
March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 81 -nVIDIA, Shapiro & Local Motors / Olli, Hodge
F. Fishkin, Jan. 9, "How NVIDIA is paving the way for self driving cars and a new OLLI automated transport from Local Motors. NVIDIA's Senior Director for Automotive, Danny Shapiro and Kurtis Hodge of Local Motors join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for another edition of Smart Driving Cars from CES 2019.."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55
F. Fishkin, Dec. 13, "When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says "Not so fast." The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui
F. Fishkin, Nov 29, "What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 68 - Dick Mudge
F. Fishkin, Nov 22, "The insurance industry hears about the outlook for automated vehicles. Co-author Dick Mudge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 68 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Uber, GM Cruise, Waymo, VW and more. Tune in and subscribe!" Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV
F. Fishkin, Nov 1, "California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state's deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles
F. Fishkin, Sept 22 "In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety...and a champion racer. Beyond that....he's an old high school friend of Alain's! And there's more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
Recent Highlights of:
Two-way Vehicle Connectivity is a Three-sided Coin That Everyone Wants to Own M. Sena, May 26, "Two-way vehicle connectivity has three facets. Two of them are mainly of interest to vehicle OEMs and their suppliers. They are vehicle-centric and customer-centric. Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency notification, logistics tracking and over-the-air updating. Customer centric connectivity includes many services that are also provided by mobile apps outside of the vehicle, such as music streaming, workshop service booking, traffic notifications and car sharing applications. Two-way vehicle connectivity today is a major competitive factor for the OEMs.
The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it....
But the debate is not really about technology nor is it about who delivers the best value for the money or the most privacy. It is about..." Read more
Hmmmm... The provacateur's lead at the beginning of our 3rd Shark-Tank Zoom-inar (Video, Audio) Alain
Amazon in Advanced Talks to Buy Self-Driving-Car Tech Company Zoox C. Lombardo & T. Higgins, , May 26, "Amazon.com Inc. is in advanced talks to buy Zoox Inc. in a move that would expand the e-commerce giant's reach in autonomous-vehicle technology. The companies are discussing a deal that would value Zoox at less than the $3.2B it achieved in a funding round in 2018..." Read more
Hmmmm... This would be a real bargain for Amazon and bring on some real talent to focus on the algorithmic side of driverless delivery while leveraging Rivian on the vehicle side. See also Financial Times Alain
Technology driving safer transport
H. Zhao, May 1, "This edition of ITU News Magazine discusses the latest trends in connected cars, new
ITU initiatives to improve smart transportation — and key insights from the annual Symposium
on the Future Networked Car (FNC‑2020), a gathering of top experts hosted by ITU and UNECE. Participants at the 5 March event discussed the technical, business and regulatory actions required to build public trust in connected, automated vehicles.
They highlighted the state of the art in automotive cybersecurity. Together, they explored the status
and future of safety-critical radio‑ communications for the road, and they presented the latest developments in the review of regulations governing road transport.
FNC‑2020 participants also had the opportunity to consider the crucial role of the latest 5G connectivity technologies in delivering safer and more effective transport. Read on to learn about the experts' insightful discussions at the event, how ITU's work is supporting the development of Intelligent Transport Systems —
and what key industry players are doing to leverage the power of ICTs for better transport." Read more
Hmmmm... This topic will be at the heart on the next Zoom-Tank Zoom-inar on June 1 (or June 15??)@ 2PM. An eloquent summary of this topic/symposium was presented by Michael Sena in his April 2020 edition of The Dispatcher. Alain
Luminaries Battle In Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate About The Future Of Self-Driving Cars Lance Eliot, April 28, "Several self-driving car luminaries assembled online via a Zoom-casted battleground this week to undertake a Lincoln-Douglas style debate about the future of the Autonomous Vehicle (AV) self-driving car industry and the advent of AI-driven mobility.
Originally scheduled for one hour, the dialogue and fielding of audience questions prompted the superstars to keep going, tackling many of the most vexing and unsolved matters that underlie the potential success of self-driving vehicles, encompassing both autonomous cars and autonomous trucks.
The lively discussion was civil and polite, fortunately so in these times of seemingly stark polarization and guttural attacks during our contemporary public discourse. Yet, even in the realm of eloquent argumentation, at times the gloves came off and there were some fierce zingers and moments of rather piercing cut-the-air-with-a-knife verbal sparring..." Read more
Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for the kind and thorough synopsis of our 1st Zoom-inar. We were all pleased by the turnout, interaction and substance. Alain
What Negative Oil Prices Mean and How the Impact Could Last V. Bajaj, April 22,"A main benchmark for the price of oil fell negative for the first time ever this week. The decline — more than 300 percent in daily trading — raised fresh questions about the damage the coronavirus is having on the global economy.
What does it mean for oil prices to be negative?
A benchmark price for a barrel of oil to be delivered next month fell to -$37.63 on Monday, which means that sellers would have to pay someone that much to take it off their hands.
But that historic plunge was exacerbated by a quirk in how the oil markets work.
The negative price concerned only contracts for delivery of barrels in May that are traded on so-called futures markets. At the same time trading happens for May deliveries, people trade on contracts ending in June, in July and so on." Read more
Hmmmm... What??? I realize that I'm often "out of it", but... In all my life I have NEVER... thought of, let alone mentioned, nor have heard anyone else mention the concept of negative oil! Often, talked about $150/B oil, $250/B, S20/B even $7/B oil. NEVER $0/B oil, negative Oil... NEVER,NEVER, NEVER!!!! and look where we are. UNBELIEVABLE!!! Implications:... no one's models extrapolate to that regime. (it requires extrapolation because no data exists in this unimaginable region. Listen to Pod-Cast; Watch Zoom-Cast Alain
Can Robotaxis Survive A Pandemic?
B. Templeton, April, 13, "Almost all the self-driving car fleets are out of operation right now. The primary reason is that testing these cars is not an "essential service" and so the safety drivers who supervise them are not allowed to come to work. Most companies use a team of two people in each car, which would create a disease risk, and to top it off, the roads are empty and this unnaturally easy, making testing less valuable.
Questions arise about what happens in the robocar world if we need to suffer another pandemic in the future. The Covid-19 crisis took place before the commercial deployment of robocars, but that won't be true later. I covered some issues in my article on delivery robots, but let's consider what we've learned this year: Uber/Lyft LYFT and Taxi rides are way, way down, and not just because all travel is way down
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Transit ridership has cratered, and service has been cut
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Delivery demand has vastly increased
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People worry if drivers might be infectious
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People don't want to touch things, from seats to scooter handlebars, that others are touching
All travel is way down, but people are particularly suspicious of travel with other people, be it transit, or riding with a driver. They are also concerned about sitting down in a vehicle where somebody else just sat. With parking plentiful, there are incentives to go back to using your own car even if you previously used something else. Scooter services like Lime and Bird have also suffered major declines.
As noted in the delivery article, while delivery robots are always good in a time when there is a massive surge in demand for delivery, it's pretty easy for a driver in a van with an automatic door to never have to touch the packages, just like a delivery robot. With massive unemployment, human driven vans are probably the best answer to the delivery demand surge...." Read more
Hmmmm... Not a pretty picture, but with every challenge, comes opportunities... Listen watch more on Pod-Cast_152/Zoom-Cast_152. Alain
Autonomous shuttles help transport COVID-19 tests at Mayo Clinic in Florida
Press release, April, 2, "For the first time in the U.S., autonomous vehicles are being used to transport medical supplies and COVID-19 tests at Mayo Clinic in Florida.
At a time when health care resources and staff are stretched thin, the Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA) has partnered with Beep and NAVYA to use autonomous vehicles to safely transport COVID-19 tests collected at a drive-thru testing location at Mayo Clinic in Florida.
"This development is a historic moment for the Jacksonville Transportation Authority," says Nathaniel P. Ford, Sr., CEO of Jacksonville Transportation Authority. "Along with our partners, Beep, NAVYA and Mayo Clinic, we are leveraging our learnings from three years of testing autonomous vehicles through our Ultimate Urban Circulator program. Our innovative team saw this as an opportunity to use technology to respond to this crisis in Northeast Florida and increase the safety of COVID-19 testing."..." Read more
Hmmmm... While not mentioned in the article, they are operating Driverlessly... without attendant or safety driver. Yea!!! (People aren't being moved, just goods and the Operational Design Domain is constrained, but it it is driverless none the less!) Listen watch more on Pod-Cast_151/Zoom-Cast_151. Alain
Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19
D. Hall, Mar 25, "... The result in late March 2020 has been one where a confluence of risks has come together. Additional operational and financial risks may emerge as additional events compound on the current situation. Actuaries will be watching for any additional risk events that layer on to the current environment, especially ones that may cause additional property, mortality and health risks such as catastrophic weather events. Morbidity, mortality, asset/liability management and operational risks are all a part of the initial and evolving story. This update to the Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key continuing and new features of the pandemic all around the world and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work..." Read more
Hmmmm... This is one of the best reports that I have seen and will be updated every 10 days or so. A good summary of the materials, podcasts and other good sources are here:
https://www.soa.org/resources/newsroom/covid-19-updates/#research
https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2020/impact-coronavirus/
ECDPC Daily data GitHub Covid19 data
Alain
Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead?
R. Bishop, Mar 24, "I met Stefan Seltz-Axmacher for the first time in November 2015 at the Florida Automated Vehicles Summit. Not long after, we met at the Blue Danube coffee shop in Alameda, CA so he could tell me about his vision for Starsky Robotics. When he energetically described his remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. "Remote driving is hard," I said. "The military has struggled with this for years. Its harder than it looks." On the technical side, latency for secure communications is challenging. On the operational side, re-creating enough on-road reality (situational awareness) for a remote driver is difficult when going for the high levels of safety needed. Seltz-Axmacher remained bullish on the approach and at that time went on to found Starsky Robotics as one of the earliest truck AV startups, later closing a $16.5M Series A funding round in March 2018, and then hauling freight while developing both remote and automated driving ability. Initially, Starsky's concept was all about remote driving for first/last mile. They later expanded their offering to include fully automated highway driving on limited freight corridors.
Now, Starsky has become the first casualty within a crowded truck automation space, and Seltz-Axmacher has provided us with an intriguing post-mortem in a recent Medium post. Most of the media coverage I've seen has acted as echo chambers for Seltz-Axmacher's perspective. Here I offer a counterpoint based on my longtime involvement in truck automation plus discussions with many others in the truck Automated Driving Systems (ADS) startup space, many of them irate at what they see as unfounded assertions made in the original post. My sources tell me that because Seltz-Axmacher hasn't experienced their technology nor been briefed on their technical/safety approach, he has no basis to make sweeping claims about the entire industry...." Read more
Hmmmm... Listen to PodCast 148. or/and Watch us on YouTube. Alain
Waymo suspends robotaxi service except for its truly driverless vehicles K. Korosec, Mar. 17, "Waymo said Tuesday it is pausing operations of Waymo One, a service in the Phoenix area that allows the public to hail rides in self-driving vehicles with trained human safety operators behind the wheel, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Waymo is also halting testing on public roads in California.
However, Waymo will keep some operations up and running, notably its truly driverless vehicles, which don't require a human safety driver, according to an announcement on its website Tuesday. These driverless vehicles are used in the Phoenix area as part of Waymo's early rider program that lets vetted members of the public hail a ride..." Read more Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the latest is not so good... Waymo has suspended all services, including the driverless. Poopie!!! Alain
NTSB slams Tesla, Apple and regulators over a fatal Autopilot crash
R. Mitchell, Feb. 25, "The nation's top safety investigator slammed Tesla on Tuesday for failing to take adequate measures to prevent "foreseeable abuse" of its Autopilot driver-assistance technology, in a hearing into the fatal 2018 crash of a Tesla Model X SUV in Mountain View, Calif.
The National Transportation Safety Board said 38-year-old Walter Huang, an Apple software engineer, had Autopilot engaged in his 2018 Tesla Model X and was playing a video game on his iPhone when the car crashed into a defective safety barrier on U.S. Highway 101.The board also blamed the highway safety arm of the U.S. Department of Transportation for failing to properly regulate rapidly evolving robot-car technology.... The board adopteda long list of measures meant to reduce such accidents as "partially automated driving" technologies become more popular in new vehicles.... Sumwalt made clear the Mountain View crash was not an isolated incident, but illustrative of the safety issues involved as humans and robot systems increasingly share the driving, not just in Teslas but in vehicles from all manufacturers. "It's time to stop enabling drivers in any partially automated vehicle to pretend that they have driverless cars," he said.
....... the Model X drove straight down the middle of a "gore lane," a white-striped zone where cars aren't supposed to go," ... It is clear from the images that the gore area was NOT white-striped as is supposed to be and the lane markings are badly worn. Why didn't NTSB fault the CA DoT for its poor maintenance and marking practices. CA DoT needs to be severely reprimanded. " ... a Toyota Prius crashed into it 11 days earlier..." to what extent did NTSB investigate the Prius crash. It didn't have autoPilot, so that's not the common factor. I suspect that the confusing lane markings and the lack of striping is the root cause... " ... The car's collision avoidance system did not detect the crash barrier." ... I suspect that this is NOT true. The system detected the stationary object, but the coded logic disregards stationary objects (classifies them as false alarms) because false positives are too likely. NTSB made a similar error in the Joshua Brown crash where the system didn't mis-identify the stationary trailer ahead as being background sky, but instead classified the stationary object in the lane ahead as a false positive . NTSB investigators have failed to ask the right questions in these investigations...
" ....The car's forward collision warning system did not provide an alert, and the automatic braking system did not activate."... Again, the system classified stationary objects in the lane ahead as phantom objects and disregards them. Once disregarded, there is no reason to initiate a warning or apply Emergency Brakes. Yipes! Read more
Hmmmm... Hopefully this will curtail the misbehavior in the use of these systems. The Self-driving systems require constant adult supervision. I suspect that NHTSA will place extraordinarily onerous regulations on personally owned self-driving cars that will effectively ban the ability to sleep, play video games, text or otherwise be non-vigilant in all non-driverless vehicles. Driverless vehicles will be required to be operated and maintained by a responsible fleet manager and not have any straight forward way for a human to drive them. Certainly no steering wheel or pedals. I expect that they'll also ban the use of Stupid-Summon-like systems outside of one's own personal property. They should. Alain
"Urbs," "Burbs," and the Immigration Locomotive
J. Hughes, Feb 2020, "Even more so than the nation, the broad fourstate, 35-county metropolitan region centered on New York City (figure 1) is becoming afflicted by a condition of demographic stagnation. While the United States has been experiencing the lowest population growth rates since the Great Depression, the region has only recently (2016–2018) slipped into absolute population decline, spawned by domestic outmigration. The major counterforce forestalling a demographic catastrophe has been positive international migration. Immigration has become the primary source of population growth—the demographic locomotive. Without it, the region would have to bear fully the economic consequences of what has become a virtual domestic population hemorrhage—a vast exodus of regional residents moving to the rest of the country. This is just one dimension of endemic demographic change that has swept the post–Great Recession world....
The second new reset is a turnaround of the pattern evidenced in the 2010–2016 period, when population growth in the "urbs" surpassed that of the "burbs." After dominating growth early in the decade (2010–2016), the core—the urban heart of the metropolitan region encompassing New York City and three adjacent counties in New Jersey—suddenly slipped into decline post-2016, causing the region as a whole to lose population. This is the latest transformation in what has become a transmillennial demographic roller coaster ride... " Read more
Hmmmm... Most interesting Demographic Dynamic. A must read. Alain
NHTSA Grants Nuro Exemption Petition for Testing Low-Speed Driverless Vehicle
2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about 'Smaht Pahk'
S. Szymkowski, Jan 27, "Hyundai is going all in on Boston accents and the 2020 Sonata for its Super Bowl advertisement. As is often the trend these days, the ad made its debut on Monday less than a week before the big game, but it's quite a clever spot...." Read more
Hmmmm... This is as irresponsible of Hyundai as StupidSummon is for Tesla. It may even be more irresponsible because Hyundai hasn't included the over-the-air-information system that allows them to monitor its use. Having the car do stuff without an alert and attentive driver in the driver's seat implies liability on them (their system) if something bad happens. Plus, squeezing a car into a parking place when the people can't get into the adjacent cars is not the smartest move unless you've also made the Hyundai key proof. There will be retaliation. Alain
The Disengagement Myth Kyle Vogt, Jan 17, "In a few weeks the California DMV will release disengagements data from Cruise and other companies who test AVs on public roads. This data is really great for giving the public a sense of what's happening on the roads. Unfortunately, it has also been used by the media and others to compare technology from different AV companies or as a proxy for commercial readiness. Since it's the only publicly available metric, I don't really blame them for using it. But it's woefully inadequate for most uses beyond those of the DMV. The idea that disengagements give a meaningful signal about whether an AV is ready for commercial deployment is a myth. ..." Read more
Hmmmm... Amen! This is a MUST read. As with everything, details matter. It is true that figures don't lie, but but it is easy to game systems such that figures, without the underlying details, do lie. As Kyle points out, there are important details associated with disengagements. These need to be well understood for disengagements to be a proxy for safety and market readiness. The when, where and associated details of each disengagement is critically important if the objective is safety and market readiness.
What is also most important here is the underlying objective of the companies doing the tests and reporting the data. As has happened in our secondary education where students are taught what is in and how to take the SATs rather than just learn. The objective is not learning , but getting 800s on the SATs so that they can get into 'Princeton'. This is perpetuated by the 'Princetons' of this world that don't look into the details of the student's academic qualities and capabilities. In the academic world, we know these students as 'box checkers', gamers of the college admission process. The gaming is continued by the 'banks and med schools' that use simplistic GPA (Grade Point Average, aka 'disengagements') cutoffs. The 'box checkers' then take 'underwater basket weaving' courses and become grade grubbers. It is lazy and irresponsible to use simplistic measures as proxies to very complex concepts such as intelligence, creativity, compatibility, and all the other details that make a good student, a good employee, a good citizen, a good mobility system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig". It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? Alain
Hmmmm... Reflections
A. Kornhauser, Jan 12,
Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6,
Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
Chandler unveils drop-off, pick-up zone for self-driving cars G. Zetino, Nov. 25, ""It's about to get easier for self-driving cars to drop off and pick up passengers in Chandler. The city of Chandler, in partnership with Waymo, on Friday unveiled the nation's first drop-off and pick-up zone for autonomous ride-hailing cars.
Hmmmm... The iconic image:
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida R. Wile, Nov 22, "Sen. Jeff Brandes (R-St. Petersburg) had just finished serving in the Army, and was looking to make a name for himself in Tallahassee as a junior representative. He came across a talk given by the founder of Google's driverless car project.
He quickly realized the potential of self-driving cars to transform many aspects of daily life. Ever since, he has made it his mission to turn Florida into what he calls "an angel investor" in automation policy. "We want to have policies in place for this technology to flourish," Brandes said in an interview at the 7th Annual Florida Automated Vehicles conference in Miami, which concluded Friday.
Brandes has drawn headlines in the tech community for filing legislation allowing virtually any automated vehicle on Florida's roads; this summer, he helped make Florida one of the first states to make AVs without a human back-up safety driver street legal.
Among the state's advantages Brandes points to that he believes makes it ideal for AV companies: no snow, which makes lane markings more visible. That also means less road construction in general...." Read more
Hmmmm... Congratulations Jeff!!! It was a great AV Summit and congratulations on creating such a Welcoming environment and intelligently shaping the birth of this technology. What you've done is enable Florida to begin to enhance mobility and the quality of life for all in Florida and especially those who can most benefit from these mobility machines. It was most impressive to witness the enthusiasm for nurturing the many aspects of this technology from Florida's Governor, Miami's Mayor, Fl DoT's Commissioner, the heads of the toll road authorities, planning agencies and educational institutions. Most impressive was Ford's comment that their autonomousTaxi efforts are focused on developing driverless technology and intend to operate it to deliver Mobility-as-a-Service in Florida, rather than sell the technology to individual consumers. I applaud that approach and hope that Ford will look to also bringing some of those vehicles to New Jersey so that we can begin to reap the benefits of this technology. What you've accomplished in Florida is THE "best practice" for us to emulate in New Jersey. Congratulations. Alain
November 1, 2019
An Update on the Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
October 18, 2019
Waymo to customers: "Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way"
Your Tesla Can Now Pick You Up R. Mitchell, Oct. 4, " Smart Summon is for parking lot use. But drivers have other ideas.
Tesla unleashed the latest twist in driverless car technology last week, raising more questions about whether autonomous vehicles are outracing public officials and safety regulators.
...Using a smartphone, a person can now command a Tesla to turn itself on, back out of a parking space and drive to the smartphone holder's location - say at a curb in front of a Costco store.." Read more
Hmmmm.... Russ, great article. A must read!
Elon, please stop. StupidSummon was a bad Valley-entitled idea before you released it. Now that it is out there it will ruin all that is good about Tesla, AutoPilot and Driverless cars. The shorters are going to have a field day.
While you are at it also remove all of the DistractTainment add ons or limit their use when AutoPilot is NOT on and drivers are engaged in driving. Just go back to V09! Along the way also get the Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) system to work properly (See NTSBbelow). To do that, maybe you should take a serious look at Velodyne's new Tesla LiDAR. It may be able to tell you if the stationary object in the lane ahead is high enough above the road surface before your AEB system decides to disregard it. Then Tesla's may stop decapitating drivers.
If you don't remove StupidSummon then at least be sure to limit its use to the Tesla owner's own private property by responsible users. (You know the GPS coordinates of where each owner lives, so you can geofence it. You also know each irresponsible use (You get the videos). Irresponsible use (use in the violation of the conditions spelled out in the user's manual) should void its future availability in that car unless proper amend are made. If not, then insurance companies should clearly state that insuring the use of this feature requires a substantial additional premium; else, you're not covered. Courts should view that use of this feature implies premeditated harm and demonstrates an extreme indifference to human life. Parking Lot owners should install signs forbidding the use of this feature on their property to protect themselves from being dragged into the claims process.
What is most disturbing about this feature is that its only value is to enhance the self-perceived manhood of Entitled Silicon Valley XXs and may well cause the public sector to over react and ruin to opportunity of responsible driverless mobility to substantially enhance the quality-of-life of those who can't or choose not to drive a car, enhance the environment, subdue our energy use and reduce congestion. Elon, shame on you September 28, 2019 Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton K. Knapp, Sept 22, "What would it take to make Princeton an accessible community for all, even those who cannot or choose not to own or drive a car? Princeton Future will explore the question at a public forum from 9 a.m. to noon on Sept. 28 in the community room at the Princeton Public Library.
Princeton Future is a non-profit community group that studies issues related to planning, development, and affordability. Speakers will discuss the capabilities of a transit-on-demand system where small, driverless shuttles could be summoned by a smart phone app to a location within walking distance of a resident's home...." Read more
Hmmmm.... Listen to a summary of the event in Episode 126 of the SmartDrivingCars PodCasts. See below for other info. Alain September 20, 2019 Waymo's robotaxi pilot surpassed 6,200 riders in its first month in California
August 17, 2019
Autonomous Vehicles: A View from Seniors
March 29, 2019
Automated vehicles could provide mobility to the 'mobility disadvantaged'
FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT Lyft, Inc. Autonomous Vehicles Feb 25, " This workshop brought together experts in cyber-physical systems, machine learning, transportation engineering, and applied mathematics, both from academia and from industry, to help bridge the technical gaps and to facilitate exchange and collaboration across disciplinary boundaries..." Read more
Hmmmm.... Slides and videos of the presentations are available here. In particular, see..:
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Andrea Censi: "Liability, Ethics, and Culture-Aware Behavior Specification using Rulebooks" Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Monday;
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Adam Oberman:"Generalization and adversarial robustness of Regularized Deep Neural Networks " Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Tuesday);
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Alain Kornhauser: "Market Forces and Market Potential for SmartDrivingCars (aka Autonomous Vehicles) " Slides,video, (via click on Schedule 11:15 Tuesday);
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Hani Mahmassani: "Shared Autonomous Fleet Services and Multimodal Urban Mobility: Optimization, Prediction and Dynamic Network Modeling " Abstract, video, (via click on Schedule 4:00 Thursday);
Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles
Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)
Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164 Sponsors: Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)
Oct 16, Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14); Lampitt (D6)..." Read more
Hmmmm.... Things are beginning to move in New Jersey. Alain
Testimony of Alain Kornhauser, Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
New Roman"">Tuesday, June 12, 2018 CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS
New Roman"">Sunday, June 3, 2018
Waymo's fleet of self-driving minivans is about to get 100 times bigger
PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)
May 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.
...The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency
braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions for detecting driver alertness and road sign information. All these Volvo functions are disabled when the test vehicle is operated in computer control..."Read more
Hmmmm.... Uber must believe that its systems are better at avoiding Collisions and Automated Emergency Braking than Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo "off the hook".
"...According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph..." (= 63 feet/second) So the system started "seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away... more than a football field, including end zones!
"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path..." (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this "object' as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected "future travel paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber's system attached to the "object", then the "vehicle". Why didn't the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision? If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren't they accurate? Why was the object classified as a "Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"? Why did it change classifications? How often was the classification of this object done. Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object. In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a "pedestrian"when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber's Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. ..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle behavior Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating " "erratic vehicle behavior". This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber system's false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.
"...The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. " Wow! If Uber's system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past "Peak valuation".
"...The system is not designed to alert the operator. " That may be the only good part of Uber's design. In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don't waste your time. If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast 30 and the 24 edition of May 10, 2018 March 24, 2018 Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail
April 17, 2017
Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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