2020-07-09
edition of the 8th year of SmartDrivingCars
Fostering Economic Opportunity through Autonomous Vehicle Technology
July 8, “SAFE invites you to join us for the release of “Fostering Economic Opportunity through Autonomous Vehicle Technology”, our new paper that addresses how autonomous vehicles (AVs) and autonomous transit can redress imbalances for low-income communities, whose options are limited by inadequacies in today’s transportation.
To mark the
launch of the
paper, SAFE is
holding a
panel event on
July 16 at
2:00pm ET.
Alisyn Malek,
SAFE, will be
moderating a
conversation
between:
- Courtney
Ehrlichman,
CEO,
Ehrlichman
Group
- Dr. Richard
Ezike, Senior
Policy
Associate, The
Urban
Institute
- Dr. Alain
Kornhauser,
Director of
the Program in Transportation, Princeton University
SAFE would
appreciate you
joining us for
what we expect
will be an
illuminating
discussing on transportation's role in limiting economic opportunities for millions of
Americans, and
how AVs and
autonomous
transit can be
part of the
solutio..." [Read more](https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_bUHzsV9BSm-tJkKQ6QVNqg) Hmmm.... [Watch today's PodCast](https://youtu.be/VxFEz8tqHJo)
and join in on
July 16. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast 164 w/Robbie Diamond
###
F. Fishkin, July 9, “Fostering economic opportunity through autonomous technology is the focus of an upcoming report from Security America’s Future Energy. Founder and CEO Robbie Diamond shares details and more in this edition with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus ..are armed police officers really needed for traffic enforcement? And the latest from Tesla, Waymo and more. …” “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 164 w/Robbie Diamond
###
###
###
Video version of SmartDrivingCars PodCast 164…. Alain
The
SmartDrivingCars
eLetter,
Pod-Casts,
Zoom-Casts and
Zoom-inars are
made possible
in part by
support from
the Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For
more
information: [www.motoetf.com](https://www.smartetfs.com/). Most funding is
supplied by
Princeton
University's
Department of
Operations
Research &
Financial
Engineering
and Princeton
Autonomous
Vehicle
Engineering
(PAVE)
research
laboratory as
part of its
research
dissemination
initiatives.
We Don’t Need Cops to Enforce Traffic Laws
A, Gordon, June 11,”… Regardless of which policy you personally prefer, any effort to eliminate racism in American policing must figure out what to do about traffic enforcement, which is the leading cause of interactions between police and the public, according to the Department of Justice. And, by law, it is almost entirely up to the officer whether to let the person go with a warning, give them a ticket, ask to search their vehicle, or escalate the situation even further. It is an interaction intentionally designed to let the officer do virtually whatever he or she wants, reflecting the inherent biases of our legal system.
Police pull over more than 20 million motorists every year, according to the Stanford Policing Project, which undertook a first-of-its-kind large scale study into what happens during more than 100 million traffic stops. It found “police require less suspicion to search Black and Hispanic drivers than white drivers. This double standard is evidence of discrimination.”
But, traffic
enforcement is
not just the
most common
way police
interact with
people. It is
also a
foundational
element to
modern
policing that
encapsulates
how things got
so bad and
why..
The problem, Seo told Motherboard, has to do with the history of the automobile in America itself. Before the car, basic tort law handled street conflict well enough; if your wagon ran into mine and caused damage to me or my property and we couldn’t settle it like reasonable adults, I’d sue you. This stopped being good enough once cars flooded roads, causing all sorts of conflict and crashes, not to mention death…“ Read more Hmmmm…. Fine, police need to enforce traffic laws, but why do police with guns need to enforce traffic laws? How many of those 20 million “pull-overs” involve “Bonnie & Clyde”???? Parking tickets are passed out by persons without guns, cars are towed by person’s without guns. Why are guns needed to give tickets to those speeding or have broken tail lights? We can then save the well trained individuals that know how to respect and use guns for duties that really need those trained individuals rather than enforcing traffic laws Alain
Elon Musk says Tesla is ‘very close’ to level 5 autonomous driving
Reuters, July 9, “U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla is “very close” to achieving level 5 autonomous driving technology, CEO Elon Musk said on Thursday, referring to the capability to navigate roads without any driver input.
"I'm extremely
confident that
level 5, or
essentially
complete
autonomy, will
happen, and I
think will
happen very
quickly," Musk
said in
remarks made
via a video
message at the
opening of
Shanghai's
annual World
Artificial
Intelligence
Conference
(WAIC).
"I remain
confident that
we will have
the basic
functionality
for level 5
autonomy
complete this
year."..." [Read more](https://venturebeat.com/2020/07/09/elon-musk-says-tesla-is-very-close-to-level-5-autonomous-driving/) Hmmmm.... "Basic
functionality"
is only the
beginning of
the "Level 5"
process. The
"Level 5"
business case
requires
either:
-
Elon to absorb all responsibilities and their implied liabilities if anything goes bad while you are using the “Level 5 Tesla” that you bought from him. He doesn’t have enough money implied liability, or
-
He could decide to build and operate a mobility machine that incorporates his automated driving technology but he hasn’t even hinted at that. So all he is doing is pumping up with hot air the value of his shares. Alain
I’ve Seen a Future Without Cars, and It’s Amazing
F. Manjoo. July 9, “As coronavirus lockdowns crept across the globe this winter and spring, an unusual sound fell over the world’s metropolises: the hush of streets that were suddenly, blessedly free of cars. … Cars took a break from killing people, too. About 10 pedestrians die on New York City’s streets in an ordinary month. Under lockdown,the city went a record two months without a single pedestrian fatality. In California, vehicle collisions plummeted 50 percent, reducing accidents resulting in injuries or death by about 6,000 per month.
As the roads
became freer
of cars, they
grew full of
possibility.
Rollerblading
and
skateboarding
have come back
into fashion.
Sales of
bicycles and
electric bikes
have
skyrocketed.
But there is a
catch: Cities
are beginning
to cautiously
open back up
again, and
people are
wondering how
they're going
to get into
work. Many are
worried about
the spread of
the virus on
public
transit. Are
cars our only
option? How
will we find
space for all
of them?
In much of
Manhattan, the
average speed
of traffic
before the
pandemic had
fallen to 7
miles per
hour. In
Midtown, it
was less than
5 m.p.h.
That's only
slightly
faster than
walking and
slower than
riding a bike.
Will traffic
soon be worse
than ever?
Not if we
choose another
path...." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/opinion/ban-cars-manhattan-cities.html)
Hmmm...
Correct! Cars
should not be
in Manhattan.
It has a
subway. Very
few other US
city centers
have the
density to
warrant an NYC
type subway.
For everyone
else (at least
300 million of
the 328
million
Americans)
that is
fortunate
enough, cars
are really
great and what
is proposed
here is
marginal at
best from the
perspective of
the
individual.
Very nice interactive graphics. Alain
Self-Driving Tech Is Becoming a Game of Partnerships
A. Marshall, July 7, “BUILDING A SELF-DRIVING car was never going to be easy. But Karl Iagnemma says he didn’t expect it to be this hard. “Vehicles are these massively complex systems, and to [build self-driving cars], we need to integrate them with another very complex system and do it in a way that’s reliable and cost-optimized. It’s really, really hard,” says Iagnemma, the president and CEO of a joint venture formed in March between South Korea’s Hyundai and Aptiv, which designs automotive electronic systems. “I think that’s one of the things that most players in the industry underappreciated, myself included.”
That
realization
has led to a
rash of
partnerships
between
established
automakers and
self-driving
startups.
Think Aptiv
and Hyundai;
Waymo and
Jaguar;
General Motors
and Cruise;
Argo AI and
Ford and
Volkswagen.
The Covid-19
pandemic has
only
heightened the
need for
partners, as
venture
capitalists
tighten the
purse strings
on big bets
like
self-driving.
"$1 billion is
the price of
an entry
ticket in the autonomous-driving space today," says Iagnemma.
Last month,
Zoox was
acquired by
Amazon for a
reported $1.1
billion,
two-thirds
less than its
2018
valuation. In
self-driving,
it's getting
harder to go
at it alone.
"The list of
independent
startups that
are tackling
[autonomous vehicles]
without a
mothership
continues to
get smaller,"
says Oliver
Cameron,
cofounder and
CEO of the
startup
Voyage, which
aims to build
and then
operate
self-driving
vehicles
inside
retirement
communities.
As a result,
"every
quarter,
there's a
casualty," he
says. "Zoox
was this
quarter." In
May, Voyage
announced a
partnership
with
Fiat-Chrysler
Automobiles to
integrate its
tech into a
handful of
Pacifica
minivans...."
[Read more](https://www.wired.com/story/self-driving-tech-game-partnerships/)
Hmmmm.... Of
course, but at
this point,
the car is
produced by
many extremely
competent and
experienced
entities. It
is thus the
commodity. A
sufficiently
good
personless
driver has yet
to emerge as
the
differentiator
and dominant
trail blazer.
Alain
Tesla mocks shortsellers with sale of red satin shorts
H. Jin, July
6, "After
surpassing
Toyota Motor
Corp as the
world's most
valuable
automaker and
stunning with forecast-beating deliveries, Tesla Inc has taken time out to poke fun at
the company's
naysayers -
with sales of
red satin
shorts.
"Limited
edition short
shorts now
available,"
CEO Elon Musk
tweeted on
Sunday.
Musk has often
taken umbrage
at
short-sellers
and in 2018
sent a box of
shorts to
hedge fund
owner and
Tesla
short-seller
David Einhorn.
...
The shorts cost $69.420, the last three digits an apparent reference to Musk’s infamous tweet in 2018 that he was considering taking Tesla private for $420 per share, with 420 also a code word for marijuana….
The Silicon Valley car maker, however, has reason to crow. Its stock has almost tripled in value this year to just over $1,200 per share and it sold more than 90,000 of its electric vehicles in the second quarter, defying a trend of plummeting sales for other automakers hit by coronavirus-induced lockdowns”. Run like the wind or entertain like Liberace,” the product description says, adding: “Enjoy exceptional comfort from the closing bell.” It will ship within 2-4 weeks….” Read more Hmmm… :-) Alain
Tesla delivers 90,650 vehicles despite pandemic and factory shutdown
A. Hawkins, July 2, “Tesla said on Thursday that it was able to deliver 90,650 vehicles during the last quarter, despite its Fremont, California factory being partially shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic. Wall Street analysts had expected the electric automaker to only deliver about 72,000 vehicles during the last three months, according to CNBC.
This was the
second
consecutive
quarter of
better-than-expected
delivery
numbers from
Tesla. The
company
delivered
88,400
vehicles in Q1
of 2020, down
from the
fourth quarter
of 2019, when
Tesla shipped
around 112,000
vehicles....
Tesla said in
a [press release](https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries).
" [Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/2/21311128/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-delivery-numbers-factory-shutdown) Hmmm...
Impressive!
Alain
How May Mobility’s autonomous shuttle ambitions backfired
K. Wiggers, July 6, “By all appearances, May Mobility was a scrappy success story. The autonomous transportation startup made its debut at Y Combinator’s demo day in 2017,…But on the inside looking out, it was a different story. May engineers struggled to maintain and upgrade the company’s vehicle platform, at one point spending months attempting to install an air conditioning system in the depths of summer. The leadership’s ambition often outstretched May’s ability to deliver, which upset vendors, some of whom went unpaid for stretches. And not a single one of the company’s commercial routes approached full autonomy.
Conversations
with former
May employees
reveal a
startup
struggling to
stand out in
an industry
dominated by
incumbents
like Waymo,
Uber, Aurora,
Cruise, and
Amazon's Zoox.
As one source
put it, May's
intent might
not have been
malicious —
executives at
the top were
convinced it
would succeed.
But
overeagerness
and
inexperience
led to
missteps that
soured
municipal
relationships....
After 500 hours of testing at the Quonset Business Park in North Kingstown, Rhode Island, humans had to override the GEM’s systems for left-hand turns with traffic, right turns on red, rain, wind, pedestrians standing at crosswalks, construction work zones, certain four-way intersections, speed bumps, potholes, and aggressive drivers. Foliage also caused complications because the preprogrammed route was mapped when trees were bare. Once the leaves and other foliage emerged, it disrupted the camera, radar, and lidar sensors that helped the shuttles to navigate.
One source
described
May's autonomy
as "all over
the map."
While some
days saw
autonomy rates
hit 80% to
90%,
performance
often dipped
"well under"
that mark....
.May’s stumbles didn’t end with engineering. Operational challenges resulted in lower-than-anticipated ridership, with most rides — which were free during pilots — falling short of break-even. One source pegs each deployment’s losses at over $1 million a year….
After its pilots in Columbus and Rhode Island came to a close and planned deployments in Florida and Texas fell through, May redoubled its efforts in Grand Rapids and Detroit with Bedrock, the real estate firm associated with Quicken Loans chairman Dan Gilbert. It was recently announced that GHSP, a company developing an ultraviolet-C treatment that automatically disinfects the air and high-touch surfaces within vehicles, would receive $80,000 from the Michigan Economic Development’s PlanetM program to install the treatment in May’s shuttles…. “ Read more Hmmm… Yipes! Unless they can become driverless, there isn’t much value in the automation. (Driverless doesn’t only enable one to reduce operating costs, it also enable demand-responsive operation… allowing vehicles to sit and wait without incurring a labor charge and taking you to where you want to go. Many conventional buses move around empty a non-trivial amount of time. Their operation is heavily biased on the “when” of the driver’s work schedule rather than the”when” of the customer’s deire to travel. Thus there is no service when some people want to travel and there is serve when very few want to travel. Replacement of the driver with a computer enables the timing of the service and its spatial scope to be better aligned to customer’s demands. Alain
Tesla captures bigger chunk of China EV market
F. Lambert,
July 8,"Tesla
delivered
3,635
made-in-China
Model 3 cars
in April and
in May, and
sales jumped
to a record
11,095 units.
The electric
automaker was
helped by an
overall quick
recovery of
the auto
market in
China
following the
worst of the
pandemic in
the market.
Now the China
Passenger Car
Association
has released
June numbers,
and the market
went down
again.
However, Tesla
is still
moving ahead
full steam and
managed to
deliver just
shy of 15,000
Model 3
vehicles in
the country in
June.
With the rest
of the market
down, overall
passenger cars
down 6.5% and
EVs down 35%,
Tesla managed
to capture an
impressive 23%
of the EV
market in
China.
In Q2, Tesla
delivered
around 30,000
vehicles in
China. It
means that the
country
represented
around
one-third of
Tesla's entire
global
deliveries
during the
second
quarter.
...." [Read more](https://electrek.co/2020/07/08/tesla-capturesf-china-ev-market-sales-drop/) Hmmmm... Impressive. Alain
New
Roman"">
Autonomous ridesharing isn’t dead: How Waymo is adapting to the post-COVID era
R. Glon, July 3, “… Ridesharing is undeniably down, but it’s not out. As self-driving car technology continues its steady march forward, ridesharing could very well bounce back as a convenient — and safe — mode of transportation. Autonomous vehicles that hold one fewer warm, breathing body feel more relevant than ever before. To get a glimpse of the road ahead, Digital Trends spoke with Waymo, one of the leaders in the field, to find out how the coronavirus-related lockdowns and stay-at-home orders affected its operations, and what it’s doing to maintain the trust of its growing ridership…. “ Read more Hmmm… Not dead, but sedated, strapped and on a ventilator. Not a good place to be. I was one of the lucky ones to survive. I sure hope ridesharing is as fortunate. Alain
Can Argo.AI Make Ford & Volkswagen Self-Driving Leaders?
Z. Shahan, July 5, “… Perhaps the two most notable players in this field other than Tesla, from my perspective, are Zoox (because it was just bought by Amazon, which has potential to develop its tech at an enormous scale) and Argo.AI (company site here). Why Argo.AI? Well, not being an AI expert and not having much insight into the details of the various startups anyway, it’s not from some analysis of Argo.AI’s competitive advantage. It mostly (but not entirely) comes down to its potential to quickly collect data at a massive scale. (Though, potential is a key word there.)…“ Read more Hmmm… What??? If you are still dependent on collecting data, you are way behind. Whatever??? Alain
Self-Driving Startup Aurora Debuts its New Long-Range Lidar Called ‘FirstLight’
E. Walz, July 8, “… Aurora said that it chose Blackmore because of its pioneering work in Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) lidar, a next generation lidar technology that can improve the perception capabilities of its self-driving vehicles. Aurora also said that Blackmore’s technology will allow it to deliver a more cost-effective autonomous driving platform than even the best systems currently on the market….
FMCW lidar however, uses a continuous-wave of laser pulses and changes the frequency of the light at regular intervals, thus the term “frequency-modulated.” This allows developers of self-driving vehicles to better determine the precise location and velocity of objects using the Doppler effect.
FMCW lidar is
more accurate
for tracking
objects that
are moving,
such as other
vehicles on
the road. It
can even be
used to
determine if
an object is
moving closer
or moving
away, which is
especially
helpful for
autonomous
vehicles to
navigate. It's
also better at
detecting
objects in low
light
situations,
including in
rain and fog.
FMCW lidar
sensors allow
the Aurora
Driver to see
well beyond
300 meters
even on
targets that
don't reflect
much light,
such as a
pedestrian
wearing dark
clothing at
night.
Aurora's
FirstLight
lidar is also
more powerful
since the
sensors are
single photon
sensitive,
meaning they
can detect the
smallest
amount of
light
possible.
..." [Read more](https://m.futurecar.com/4020/Self-Driving-Startup-Aurora-Debuts-its-New-Long-Range-Lidar-Called-FirstLight) Hmmm... If
you are
moving, aren't
stationary
objects moving
relative to
you? 300
meters is a
very long
way. Is there
any safety
critical
situation in
which you need
to be able to
"see" that far
ahead. In all
of my lifetime
driving
experience, I
cant recall
that one
instance that
it was
advantageous
that I could
see 300 meters
ahead (or any
direction). I
guess I've
never driven
really fast.
For the near term, in fact maybe even the long term, we should restrict our Operational Design Domain to include roads that have reasonable speed limits. Technically interesting anyway. Alain
cars to Barnard Castle before driverless trains operate on London Underground” - ASLEF General Secretary Mick Whelan.
Staff, July 8, “People will be using driverless cars to Barnard Castle before driverless trains operate on London Underground, claims ASLEF General Secretary Mick Whelan.
The leader of
the drivers'
union was
responding to
Prime Minister
Boris
Johnson's
suggestion
that
driverless LU
trains could
be a condition
of the
emergency
funding for
Transport for
London.
Johnson
discussed the
idea at the
launch of
construction
of Siemens'
Goole factory,
where the
first tranche
of new Deep
Tube trains
will be built
for the
Piccadilly
Line.
Johnson told ITV News: “You can run these trains without the need for somebody to be sitting in the driver’s cab the whole time….” Read more Hmmm… Just because you can doesn’t mean you will. One might have thought that private freight railroads might buy out union contracts to help them survive once we stop burning coal and there is no demand for 200 car long coal unit trains. Unfortunately there are no signs freight railroads are going to change their long unit train business model. Very small labor cost per car, but very infrequent service between very few places and zero service between most places. Alain
Roman""> [Draft](https://www.dropbox.com/s/p7t7fwkm1wu9n3g/ProgramDraft1_4thAnnualPrincetonSDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0)Princeton
SmartDrivingCar
Summit
Postponed until Evening Oct. 20
through Oct.
22, 2020 (But
will likely
need to be
completely
Virtual,
possibly in "[Second life](https://secondlife.com/)") A.
Kornhauser,
Feb 6, "The
focus of the
Summit this
year will be
moving beyond
the AI and the
Sensors to
addressing the
challenges of Commercialization and the delivery of tangible value to communities.
We've made
enormous
progress with
the
technology.
We're doing
the
investment;
however, this
investment
delivers value
only if is
commercialized:
made available
and is used by
consumers in
large
numbers.
Demos and
one-offs are
"great", but
to deliver
value that is
anywhere near
commensurate
with the
magnitude of
the investment
made to date,
initial
deployments
need to
scale. We
can't just
have
"Morgantown
PRT Systems"
whose initial
deployment has
been nothing
but enormously
successful for
45 years (an
essentially
perfect safety
record, an
excellent
availability
record and
customer
valued
mobility).
Unfortunately,
the system was
never expanded
or duplicated
anywhere. It
didn't scale.
It is a
one-off.
Tests, demos and one-offs are nice niche deployments; however, what one really needs are initial deployments that have the opportunity to grow, be replicated and scale. In 1888, Frank Sprague, successfully deployed a small electric street railway system in Richmond, Va. which became the reference for many other cites. “… By 1889 110 electric railways incorporating Sprague’s equipment had been begun or planned on several continents…” Substantial scaled societal benefits emerged virally from this technology. It was eventually supplanted by the conventional automobile but for more than 30 years it delivered substantial improvements to the quality-of-life for many.
In part, the
4th Summit
will focus on
defining the
"Richmond" of
Affordable
Shared-ride
On-demand
Mobility-as-a-Service.
The initial
Operational
Design Domain
(ODD) that
safely
accommodates
Driverless
Mobility
Machines that
people
actually
choose to use
and becomes
the envy of
communities
throughout the
Program is
in flux.
Consider all
named
individuals as
"Invited yet
to be
confirmed".
Alain
C’mon Man!(These
folks didn't
get/read the
memo)
##
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
Calendar
of Upcoming
Events:s
Fostering Economic Opportunity through Autonomous Vehicle Technology
July 16 @ 2pm New York Time
New
Roman"">
New
Roman""> [SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 005](http://zoom-tank.com/) AV
Shark-Tank:
Topic to be Announced
July 21 @ 2pm New York Time
to be Virtual,
Evening Oct.
20 -> Oct
22.
SmartDrivingCar Summit
Princeton University Princeton, NJ
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
###
###
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 163, Zoom-Cast Episode 163 w/Henry Greenidge F. Fishkin, July 2, “Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. .” … Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 162, Zoom-Cast Episode 162 w/Cliff Winston
###
F. Fishkin, June 25, “From the Brookings Institution, Cliff Winston, co-author of Autonomous Vehicles…The Road to Economic Growth? joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..why are fatal crash rates rising in the midst of a pandemic…plus NVIDIA, Didi, Tesla and more.”
...
Alain
Roman"">
[SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 004](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHlPaNmjeag&feature=youtu.be) Insurance:
For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
###
F. Fishkin, June
23, "But the
debate is not
really about
technology nor
is it about who
delivers the
best value for
the money or the
most privacy. It
is about ..."
-
Zoom-inar (Video replay) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
-
PodCast (Audio Only) Insurance: For or Against SmartDrivingCars?
Listen/Watch more Hmmm… We only scratched the surface. Alain SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 161, Zoom-Cast Episode 161 w/Alberto Stochino
###
F. Fishkin, June 17, “Is less data sometimes more when it comes to driverless vehicle technology? Perceptive Founder and CEO Alberto Stochino joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the DOT’s new plan for sharing autonomous safety information, the latest from Tesla, EVs from China and more.” … Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 160, Zoom-Cast Episode 160 w/Jessica Cicchino
###
F. Fishkin, June 12, “Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Research VP Jessica Cicchino co-authored a new study saying self driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to discuss the study. Plus the latest on Tesla, Ford & VW, Covid-19 and more. “ “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 159, Zoom-Cast Episode 159 w/Kara Kockelman
###
F. Fishkin, June 4, “Prof. Kara Kockelman’s focus on smart transportation to save lives, money and the environment has made her a sought after global expert. The U. of Texas Transportation Engineering Professor joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on the impact of Covid-19 and much more. Plus Tesla, Uber, Argo AI and the top smart driving headlines. For more on Dr. Kockelman’s work….please visit… http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman.”
[SmartDrivingCars Zoom-inar 003 Everyone's for Connectivity; but...](https://youtu.be/DMNLH_fkcI4) F. Fishkin,
June 2, "But
the debate is
not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
Listen/Watch more Hmmm… We only scratched the surface. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 158, Zoom-Cast Episode 158 w/Chunka Mui
###
F. Fishkin,
May 28, "In
the midst of
the Covid-19
pandemic, what
are the
smartest ways
to re-build
and plan for
the future?
Futurist and
author Chunka
Mui joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin for
that plus
Amazon, Zoox,
Intel
Mobileye,
Tesla, Uber
and more." SmartDrivingCars
[Pod-Cast Episode 157](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-157),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 157](https://youtu.be/AQbuiJ70c7U)
w/Grayson
Brulte
F. Fishkin, May 21, “Global auto makers must completely re-think their autonomous mobility strategy as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. So says innovation strategist Grayson Brulte of Brulte & Company….who joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus…Waymo, Tesla, Uber and more.”
###
SmartDrivingCars
Zoom-inar 002
[The Future of Public Roadway Transit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sqBZZzezUg)
(Will the Bus be Thrown Under the Bus?)
###
-
Zoom-inar Video (Video replay)Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
-
PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Future of Public Roadway Transit
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 156, Cars Zoom-Cast Episode 156 w/Danny Shapiro2
###
F. Fishkin, May 14, “With new hardware and software capabilities NVIDIA is expanding into new areas of driver assistance technology. Sr. Director of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus the latest on Waymo, Voyage, Ford and more. listen and subscribe!” “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 155, Zoom-Cast Episode 155 w/Alex Roy2
###
F. Fishkin, April 29, “The continuing impact of Covid-19 on autonomous vehicle progress. But it may not be all bad news. Alex Roy…host of the No Parking Podcast and Director of Special Operations at Argo AI joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Intel, Lyft, Uber and more. Listen and subscribe!”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 154, Zoom-Cast Episode 154 w/Dan Sperling
###
F. Fishkin, April 29, “Can ride sharing rebound after the pandemic? Daniel Sperling, founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo, Ford and more.”
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-inar 001 The Driverless New Normal Debate
-
SmartDrivingCar PodCast (Audio Only) Smart Driving Cars: The Driverless New Normal Debate
-
Zoom Audience Questions (Only a few were addressed in Zoom-inar)
###
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 153, Zoom-Cast Episode 153 w/Dick Mudge2
###
F. Fishkin, April 17, “The plummeting price of oil and what it may mean for mobility, ride sharing and the economy.. Dick Mudge, founder and president of Compass Transportation & Technology joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus GM, Uber and more on the Coronavirus impact.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 152, Zoom-Cast Episode 152 w/Brad Templeton
###
F. Fishkin, April 17, “Can robotaxis survive a pandemic? Internet pioneer, self driving car consultant and author Brad Templeton joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in a wide ranging chat on the impact today and the future. Plus…Uber, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla and more.” “
###
###
SmartDrivingCars Podcast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop F. Fishkin, Mar. 26, “The Smart Driving Cars podcast with automated driving strategy consultant Richard Bishop joining Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Is automated trucking dead? Also…Covid-19 puts Waymo in park, the latest on Tesla and more. listen and subscribe!” … Alain
SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 148 - Richard Bishop Video version… Watch our first attempt…. Alain
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 147 - Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Mar. 14, “From Sweden…The Dispatcher editor Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin as Covid-19 takes a toll on Waymo, Uber and more. Plus Saving the Car Industries in the U.S. and the EU… the latest from Future Networked Car 2020 in Geneva and more.” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 142 - J. Hughes
F. Fishkin, Feb 15, “What shifting populations mean for the future of mobility and transportation. Leading expert Jim Hughes of Rutgers University joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Tesla, GM, Comma AI’s inexpensive autopilot, Aptiv, Lyft and more. Tune in and subscribe! “
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 141- A. Roy
F. Fishkin, Feb 7, “The latest glossary of BS in mobility, self driving and autonomy from author, podcaster and cannonball driver Alex Roy on Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the news from Tesla, Nuro, Waymo, GM and more! “
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 139- Randal O’Toole
F. Fishkin, Jan 25, “Adaptive cruise control and self driving tech may lead to more urban sprawl. But the Cato Institute’s Randal O’Toole says maybe that isn’t a bad thing. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Subaru’s tech, GM’s Cruise, Tesla and more on the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This edition is sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information…head to www.motoetf.com “
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 138-Nick Zart
F. Fishkin, Jan 18, “The new mobility on the ground and in the air. Nicolas Zart joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co host Fred Fishkin for a discussion on Urban Air Mobility…plus..Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Mobileye, Waymo and more in this edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast.” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 136
F. Fishkin, Jan 6, “He’s back! Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser…still on the mend …but opinionated as ever…joins co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the latest from Waymo, Tesla and more in Episode 136 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. “ Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 135 - with Jim Atkinson
F. Fishkin, Dec 5, “In this special edition… the launch of a new exchange traded fund focused on smart transportation and technology. Guinness Atkinson Asset Management CEO Jim Atkinson joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus..a push by the Coalition for Future Mobility for action in Washington, AutoX wants driverless testing in California and Aptiv grows in Pittsburgh. “
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Nov. 1, “An updated outlook for automated vehicles…Tesla, Waymo , Ford, VW and more. Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by guests Michael Sena and Dick Mudge in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars!”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM F. Fishkin, June 9, “Should the insurance industry be pushing more safety and autonomous tech in cars? It’s a win, win says Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser. Joining him in the discussion along with co-host Fred Fishkin is NJM’s John Hardiman, a board member of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Also…Fiat Chrysler, Ford and more.”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot F. Fishkin, May 25, “ The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus…Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup
###
F. Fishkin, May 18, “Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It’s just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!”
F. Fishkin, May 18, “In this special edition from the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit, Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by RoboSense VP Leilei Shinohara on the LiDAR’s benefits. And view of autonomous technology from law enforcement with New York State Police
Staff Sergeant
Terence
McDonnell." [Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-106)
F. Fishkin, May 18, “From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, David Kidd from the Highway Loss Data Institute joins Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin and then on site preliminary research results on mobility for all with Cecilia Feeley and Andrea Lubin from Rutgers.”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund
F. Fishkin, May 18,, “From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit’s focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund.”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena’69
March 28, F. Fishkin, “The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus …the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe.”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader’55
F. Fishkin, Dec. 13, “When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says “Not so fast.” The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!” Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui
F. Fishkin, Nov 29, “What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus…Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! “
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV
F. Fishkin, Nov 1, “California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state’s deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code,Motorcycles
F. Fishkin, Sept 22 “In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety…and a champion racer. Beyond that….he’s an old high school friend of Alain’s! And there’s more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!”
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, “The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book “Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World”
Recent Highlights of:
Announcing 2020-2021 Fellow-in-Residence Henry L. Greenidge, Esq. Press release, June 24, “The McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy and Research at New York University has announced transportation policy expert Henry L. Greenidge, Esq. as a 2020-2021 Fellow-in-Residence. …
"As New York
City and
cities around
the nation
reopen amid
COVID-19,
there is an
important
conversation
to be had
about the
intersection
of
transportation
policy with
poverty, race
and class. In
a field where
there are too
few thought
leaders of
color, Henry
Greenidge's
industry
expertise and
distinguished
track record
of public
service make
him an
invaluable
addition to
the NYU
McSilver
team," says
Michael A.
Lindsey, PhD,
MSW, MPH,
Executive
Director of
the institute.
"Race and
transportation
have been
inextricably
linked since
the first
slave ship
crossed the
Americas,"
says Henry
Greenidge. "As
our nation
continues to
grapple with
institutional
racism, which
serves as the
fabric for
every facet of
the United
States, the
inequities of
transportation
policies must
be at the
center. I am
humbled and
excited to be
working with
the McSilver
Institute to
unpack how
transportation,
race, and
poverty
intersect.."
[Read more](https://mcsilver.nyu.edu/henry-greenidge-fellow-in-residence/) Hmmm.... In
no uncertain
terms,
we must make
sure that
inequities and
racism are not
explicitly nor
even
implicitly
baked into
the
SmartDrivingCar
r/evolution.
We are still
at the very
beginning, so
it shouldn't
be hard nor
expensive but
so far it
doesn't look
good. The
emphasis has
been on giving
those that
already have
fantastic ways
to get around
one more way.
The focus
hasn't been on
the mobility
disadvantaged
and certainly
not on the
Black
community.
Just look
where the
testing has
been taking
place and the
folks that
take part in
the focus
groups and
those that are
given rides.
Look at who
designs and
writes the
software and
the
investors.
Sure, one can
and should
serve them,
but if public
policy is
going to play
a role, then
it can't bake
in more
inequities.
Moreover, the
private sector
can also step
up and realize
that these
systems can
readily serve
everyone. The
technology
that makes
SmartDrivingCars
possible is
not inherently
racists. It
can respect
and serve
everyone.
Henry and
others can
help make sure
that the
designers and
deployers of
SmartDrivingCars
don't
explicitly nor
implicitly
bake in racism
and bias.
Alain
[Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates Jump 36.6% in April Despite Quarantines, Says National Safety Council](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/motor-vehicle-fatality-rates-jump-36-6-in-april-despite-quarantines-says-national-safety-council-301082390.html#:~:text=Preliminary%20estimates%20from%20the%20National,same%20time%20period%20last%20year.)
Press release, June 24, “ Preliminary estimates based on April data from all 50 states indicate that for the second straight month, Americans did not reap any safety benefit from having less roadway traffic. In fact, the roads became even more lethal as miles driven plummeted. Preliminary estimates from the National Safety Council show a year-over-year 36.6% jump in fatality rates per miles driven in April, in spite of an 18% drop in the total number of roadway deaths compared to April 2019. The actual number of miles driven dropped 40% compared to the same time period last year. The mileage death rate per 100 million vehicle miles driven was 1.47 in April compared to 1.08 in 2019….
“Even without traffic, our roads were no safer,” said Lorraine M. Martin, president and CEO of the National Safety Council. “It is heartbreaking to see the carnage on our roadways continue, especially when our medical professionals should be able to focus intently on treating a pandemic rather than preventable car crashes. These numbers underscore our urgent need to change the culture of safety on our roads.” ..” Read more Hmmm…. Wow!!! Does COVID-19 have any silver linings?? So highway deaths aren’t as well correlated to VMT as we/I had thought. what are the other big terms is the relationship? Alcohol consumption?, Speed?, all the safe drivers staying home and only the high liability drivers (teenagers and Generation COVIDs out there texting??? Alain
Press release, June 15, “The U.S. Department of Transportation today announced nine companies and eight States that have signed on as the first participants in a new Department initiative to improve the safety and testing transparency of automated driving systems, the Automated Vehicle Transparency and Engagement for Safe Testing (AV TEST) Initiative. The participating companies are Beep, Cruise, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Local Motors, Navya, Nuro, Toyota, Uber, and Waymo. The States are California, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Utah.
"Through this
initiative,
the Department
is creating a
formal
platform for
Federal,
State, and
local
government to
coordinate and
share
information in
a standard
way," said
U.S.
Transportation
Secretary
Elaine L.
Chao. ...
This initiative aligns with the Department’s leadership on automated driving system vehicles, including AV 4.0: Ensuring American Leadership in Automated Vehicle Technologies.” Read more Hmmm… Excellent. This is really good because it is promotes and organizes the open sharing of safety information assoiated with automated driving. This is extremely important because safety of these systems is a necessary condition for their adoption.
Unfortunately, a few things seem to be missing from the announcement.
-
a budget (Washington may not have any money left after COVID-19),
-
any mention of mobility for people or for goods. The testing of safety is conducted without doing any useful mobility, but the value of testing is derived from the delivery of that mobility. Safety in that context requires the active engagement the entities that are being transported. It is very important that this initiative include potential customers and neighborhoods whose streets such automation might use, and
-
the whole Northeast including New Jersey seems to have not “signed on”, nor is Ford/Argo, Zooks, Aurore, Voyage Amazon, Apple…. Alain
Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19, June 12, 2020 R. Dale Hall, June 12, “…By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines….” Read more Hmmm… Excellent! An enormous amount here. See especially FIg 11 and 17. These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, … An enormous amount to digest here. Excellent. Alain
[Two-way Vehicle Connectivity is a Three-sided Coin That Everyone Wants to Own](https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyomgyelgm4q6fl/Sena_Two-way%20Vehicle%20Connectivity_2-3.pdf?dl=0) M.
Sena, May 26,
"Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
has three
facets. Two of
them are
mainly of
interest to
vehicle OEMs
and their
suppliers.
They are
vehicle-centric
and
customer-centric. Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency
notification,
logistics
tracking and
over-the-air
updating.
Customer
centric
connectivity
includes many
services that
are also
provided by
mobile apps
outside of the
vehicle, such
as music
streaming,
workshop
service
booking,
traffic
notifications
and car
sharing
applications.
Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
today is a
major
competitive
factor for the
OEMs.
The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it….
But the debate
is not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about..." [R](https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyomgyelgm4q6fl/Sena_Two-way%20Vehicle%20Connectivity_2-3.pdf?dl=0)[ead more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyomgyelgm4q6fl/Sena_Two-way%20Vehicle%20Connectivity_2-3.pdf?dl=0) Hmmmm... The
provacateur's
lead at the
beginning of
our 3rd
Shark-Tank
Zoom-inar ([Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMNLH_fkcI4&feature=youtu.be),
[Audio](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/zoom-tank-06-02-20-everyone-is-for-connectivitybut))
Alain
[Luminaries Battle In Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate About The Future Of Self-Driving Cars](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceeliot/2020/04/28/luminaries-battle-in-lincoln-douglas-style-debate-about-the-future-of-self-driving-cars/#35c0455028b6) Lance
Eliot, April
28, "Several
self-driving
car luminaries
assembled
online via a
Zoom-casted
battleground
this week to
undertake a
Lincoln-Douglas
style debate
about the
future of the
Autonomous
Vehicle (AV)
self-driving
car industry
and the advent
of AI-driven
mobility.
Originally
scheduled for
one hour, the
dialogue and
fielding of
audience
questions
prompted the
superstars to
keep going,
tackling many
of the most
vexing and
unsolved
matters that
underlie the
potential
success of
self-driving
vehicles,
encompassing
both
autonomous
cars and
autonomous
trucks.
The lively
discussion was
civil and
polite,
fortunately so
in these times
of seemingly
stark
polarization
and guttural
attacks during
our
contemporary
public
discourse.
Yet, even in
the realm of
eloquent
argumentation,
at times the
gloves came
off and there
were some
fierce zingers
and moments of
rather
piercing
cut-the-air-with-a-knife
verbal
sparring..."
[Read more](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceeliot/2020/04/28/luminaries-battle-in-lincoln-douglas-style-debate-about-the-future-of-self-driving-cars/#35c0455028b6) Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for
the kind and
thorough
synopsis of
our 1st
Zoom-inar. We
were all
pleased by the
turnout,
interaction
and substance.
Alain
[What Negative Oil Prices Mean and How the Impact Could Last](https://www.nytimes.com/article/negative-oil-prices-facts-history.html) V.
Bajaj, April
22,"A main
benchmark for
the price of
oil fell
negative for
the first time
ever this
week. The
decline —
more than 300
percent in
daily trading
— raised fresh
questions
about the
damage the
coronavirus is
having on the
global
economy.
What does it
mean for oil
prices to be
negative?
A benchmark
price for a
barrel of oil
to be
delivered next
month fell to
-$37.63 on
Monday, which
means that
sellers would
have to pay
someone that
much to take
it off their
hands.
But that
historic
plunge was
exacerbated by
a quirk in how
the oil
markets work.
The negative
price
concerned only
contracts for
delivery of
barrels in May
that are
traded on
so-called
futures
markets. At
the same time
trading
happens for
May
deliveries,
people trade
on contracts
ending in
June, in July
and so on." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/article/negative-oil-prices-facts-history.html) Hmmmm... What??? I realize that
I'm often "out
of it",
but... In all
my life I have
NEVER...
thought of,
let alone
mentioned, nor
have heard
anyone else
mention the
concept of negative
oil!
Often, talked
about $150/B
oil, $250/B,
S20/B even
$7/B oil.
NEVER $0/B
oil,
negative
Oil...
NEVER,NEVER,
NEVER!!!! and
look where we
are. UNBELIEVABLE!!!
Implications:...
no one's
models
extrapolate to
that regime.
(it requires
extrapolation
because no
data exists in
this
unimaginable
region.
Listen to [Pod-Cast](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-153);
Watch [Zoom-Cast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nW3AcoFeA8&feature=youtu.be)
Alain
[Starsky Robotics Failed. Does That Mean Automated Trucking Is Dead?](https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardbishop1/2020/03/24/starsky-robotics-failed-does-that-mean-automated-trucking-is-dead/#51d50d840c84) R. Bishop,
Mar 24, "I met
Stefan
Seltz-Axmacher
for the first
time in
November 2015
at the Florida
Automated
Vehicles
Summit. Not
long after, we
met at the
Blue Danube
coffee shop in
Alameda, CA so
he could tell
me about his
vision for
Starsky
Robotics. When
he
energetically
described his remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. "Remote driving is
hard," I said.
"The military
has struggled
with this for
years. Its
harder than it
looks." On the
technical
side, latency
for secure
communications
is
challenging.
On the
operational
side,
re-creating
enough on-road
reality
(situational
awareness) for
a remote
driver is
difficult when
going for the
high levels of
safety needed.
Seltz-Axmacher
remained
bullish on the
approach and
at that time
went on to
found Starsky
Robotics as
one of the
earliest truck
AV startups,
later closing
a $16.5M
Series A
funding round
in March 2018,
and then
hauling
freight while
developing
both remote
and automated
driving
ability.
Initially,
Starsky's
concept was
all about
remote driving
for first/last
mile. They
later expanded
their offering
to include
fully
automated
highway
driving on
limited
freight
corridors.
Now, Starsky
has become the
first casualty
within a
crowded truck
automation
space, and
Seltz-Axmacher
has provided
us with an
intriguing
post-mortem in
a recent
Medium post.
Most of the
media coverage
I've seen has
acted as echo
chambers for
Seltz-Axmacher's
perspective.
Here I offer a
counterpoint
based on my
longtime
involvement in
truck
automation
plus
discussions
with many
others in the
truck
Automated
Driving
Systems (ADS)
startup space,
many of them
irate at what
they see as
unfounded
assertions
made in the
original post.
My sources
tell me that
because
Seltz-Axmacher
hasn't
experienced
their
technology nor
been briefed
on their
technical/safety
approach, he
has no basis
to make
sweeping
claims about
the entire
industry...."
[Read more](https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardbishop1/2020/03/24/starsky-robotics-failed-does-that-mean-automated-trucking-is-dead/#51d50d840c84) Hmmmm... [Listen to PodCast 148](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-148).
or/and [Watch us on YouTube](https://youtu.be/VkzPm5GwEz4).
Alain
Waymo suspends robotaxi service except for its truly driverless vehicles K. Korosec, Mar. 17, “Waymo said Tuesday it is pausing operations of Waymo One, a service in the Phoenix area that allows the public to hail rides in self-driving vehicles with trained human safety operators behind the wheel, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Waymo is also halting testing on public roads in California.
However, Waymo
will keep some
operations up
and running,
notably its
truly
driverless
vehicles,
which don't
require a
human safety
driver,
according to
an
announcement
on its website
Tuesday. These
driverless
vehicles are
used in the
Phoenix area
as part of
Waymo's early
rider program
that lets
vetted members
of the public
hail a
ride..." [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/waymo-suspends-robotaxi-service-except-for-its-truly-driverless-vehicles/) Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the
latest is not
so good... [Waymo has suspended all services, including the driverless.](https://waymo.com/coronavirus)
Poopie!!!
Alain
“Urbs,” “Burbs,” and the Immigration Locomotive
J. Hughes, Feb 2020, “Even more so than the nation, the broad fourstate, 35-county metropolitan region centered on New York City (figure 1) is becoming afflicted by a condition of demographic stagnation. While the United States has been experiencing the lowest population growth rates since the Great Depression, the region has only recently (2016–2018) slipped into absolute population decline, spawned by domestic outmigration. The major counterforce forestalling a demographic catastrophe has been positive international migration. Immigration has become the primary source of population growth—the demographic locomotive. Without it, the region would have to bear fully the economic consequences of what has become a virtual domestic population hemorrhage—a vast exodus of regional residents moving to the rest of the country. This is just one dimension of endemic demographic change that has swept the post–Great Recession world….
The second new reset is a turnaround of the pattern evidenced in the 2010–2016 period, when population growth in the “urbs” surpassed that of the “burbs.” After dominating growth early in the decade (2010–2016), the core—the urban heart of the metropolitan region encompassing New York City and three adjacent counties in New Jersey—suddenly slipped into decline post-2016, causing the region as a whole to lose population. This is the latest transformation in what has become a transmillennial demographic roller coaster ride… “ Read more Hmmmm… Most interesting Demographic Dynamic. A must read. Alain
2020 Hyundai Sonata stars in Super Bowl ad all about ‘Smaht Pahk’
S. Szymkowski,
Jan 27,
"Hyundai is
going all in
on Boston
accents and
the 2020
Sonata for its
Super Bowl
advertisement.
As is often
the trend
these days,
the ad made
its debut on
Monday less
than a week
before the big
game, but it's
quite a clever
spot...." [Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/dk1wlzbg6rkpqkd/Smaht%20Pahk%20_%202020%20Hyundai%20Sonata%20_%20Hyundai-85iRQdjCzj0.mp4?dl=0) Hmmmm... This is as
irresponsible
of Hyundai as
[StupidSummon](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20929438/tesla-smart-summon-use-one-million-q3-2019)
is for Tesla.
It may even be
more
irresponsible
because
Hyundai hasn't
included the over-the-air-information system that allows them to monitor its use.
Having the car
do stuff
without an
alert and
attentive
driver in the
driver's seat
implies
liability on
them (their
system) if
something bad
happens.
Plus,
squeezing a
car into a
parking place
when the
people can't
get into the
adjacent cars
is not the
smartest move
unless you've
also made the
Hyundai [key proof](https://jalopnik.com/keying-somebodys-car-is-just-about-the-worst-thing-you-1821884368).
There will be
retaliation.
Alain
The Disengagement Myth Kyle Vogt, Jan 17, “In a few weeks the California DMV will release disengagements data from Cruise and other companies who test AVs on public roads. This data is really great for giving the public a sense of what’s happening on the roads. Unfortunately, it has also been used by the media and others to compare technology from different AV companies or as a proxy for commercial readiness. Since it’s the only publicly available metric, I don’t really blame them for using it. But it’s woefully inadequate for most uses beyond those of the DMV. The idea that disengagements give a meaningful signal about whether an AV is ready for commercial deployment is a myth. …” Read more Hmmmm… Amen! This is a MUST read. As with everything, details matter. It is true that figures don’t lie, but but it is easy to game systems such that figures, without the underlying details, do lie. As Kyle points out, there are important details associated with disengagements. These need to be well understood for disengagements to be a proxy for safety and market readiness. The when, where and associated details of each disengagement is critically important if the objective is safety and market readiness.
What is also most important here is the underlying objective of the companies doing the tests and reporting the data. As has happened in our secondary education where students are taught what is in and how to take the SATs rather than just learn. The objective is not learning , but getting 800s on the SATs so that they can get into ‘Princeton’. This is perpetuated by the ‘Princetons’ of this world that don’t look into the details of the student’s academic qualities and capabilities. In the academic world, we know these students as ‘box checkers’, gamers of the college admission process. The gaming is continued by the ‘banks and med schools’ that use simplistic GPA (Grade Point Average, aka ‘disengagements’) cutoffs. The ‘box checkers’ then take ‘underwater basket weaving’ courses and become grade grubbers. It is lazy and irresponsible to use simplistic measures as proxies to very complex concepts such as intelligence, creativity, compatibility, and all the other details that make a good student, a good employee, a good citizen, a good mobility system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to “make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear” or “putting lipstick on the pig”. It is easy to game the metric ‘Disengagements’ by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don’t know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM’s lawyers and GM’s board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? Alain
###
### Hmmmm… Reflections
A. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm… Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I’m about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSightis standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don’t sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the ‘chrome and fins’ that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only ‘Waymo-style Driverless’ (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm… I’m in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I’m looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don’t feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
[Chandler unveils drop-off, pick-up zone for self-driving cars](https://ktar.com/story/2852028/chandler-unveils-drop-off-pick-up-zone-for-self-driving-cars/) G.
Zetino, Nov.
25, ""It's
about to get
easier for
self-driving
cars to drop
off and pick
up passengers
in Chandler.
The city of
Chandler, in
partnership
with Waymo, on
Friday
unveiled the
nation's first
drop-off and
pick-up zone
for autonomous
ride-hailing
cars.
Read more Hmmmm… The iconic image:
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system’s Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can’t or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
Self-driving car capital? One senator thinks it can be Florida R. Wile, Nov 22, “Sen. Jeff Brandes (R-St. Petersburg) had just finished serving in the Army, and was looking to make a name for himself in Tallahassee as a junior representative. He came across a talk given by the founder of Google’s driverless car project.
He quickly
realized the
potential of
self-driving
cars to
transform many
aspects of
daily life.
Ever since, he
has made it
his mission to
turn Florida
into what he
calls "an
angel
investor" in
automation
policy. "We
want to have
policies in
place for this
technology to
flourish,"
Brandes said
in an
interview at
the 7th Annual
Florida
Automated
Vehicles
conference in
Miami, which
concluded
Friday.
Brandes has drawn headlines in the tech community for filing legislation allowing virtually any automated vehicle on Florida’s roads; this summer, he helped make Florida one of the first states to make AVs without a human back-up safety driver street legal.
Among the
state's
advantages
Brandes points
to that he
believes makes
it ideal for
AV companies:
no snow, which
makes lane
markings more
visible. That
also means
less road
construction
in
general...."
[Read more](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article237625484.html) Hmmmm... Congratulations Jeff!!! It was a great AV Summit and congratulations on creating such a Welcoming environment and
intelligently
shaping the
birth of this
technology.
What you've
done is enable
Florida to
begin to
enhance
mobility and
the quality of
life for all
in Florida
and especially
those who can
most benefit
from these
mobility
machines. It
was most
impressive to
witness the
enthusiasm for
nurturing the
many aspects of this technology from Florida's
Governor,
Miami's Mayor,
Fl DoT's
Commissioner,
the heads of
the toll road
authorities,
planning
agencies and
educational
institutions.
Most
impressive was
Ford's comment
that their
autonomousTaxi
efforts are
focused on
developing
driverless
technology and
intend to
operate it to
deliver
Mobility-as-a-Service
in Florida,
rather than
sell the
technology to
individual
consumers. I
applaud that
approach and
hope that Ford
will look to
also bringing
some of those
vehicles to
New Jersey so
that we can
begin to reap
the benefits
of this
technology.
What you've
accomplished
in Florida is
THE "best
practice" for
us to emulate
in New
Jersey.
Congratulations.
Alain
An Update on the Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
September 28,
2019 [Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton](https://planetprinceton.com/2019/09/22/public-forum-will-explore-possibility-of-transit-on-demand-in-princeton/)
K. Knapp, Sept
22, "What
would it take
to make
Princeton an
accessible
community for
all, even
those who
cannot or
choose not to
own or drive a
car? Princeton
Future will
explore the
question at a
public forum
from 9 a.m. to
noon on Sept.
28 in the
community room
at the
Princeton
Public
Library.
Princeton
Future is a
non-profit
community
group that
studies issues
related to
planning,
development,
and
affordability.
Speakers will
discuss the
capabilities
of a
transit-on-demand
system where
small,
driverless
shuttles could
be summoned by
a smart phone
app to a
location
within walking
distance of a
resident's
home...." [Read more](https://planetprinceton.com/2019/09/22/public-forum-will-explore-possibility-of-transit-on-demand-in-princeton/) Hmmmm.... Listen to a summary of
the event in [Episode 126 of the SmartDrivingCars PodCasts](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-126).
See below for
other info.
Alain
August 17,
2019
Autonomous Vehicles: A View from Seniors
March 29, 2019
Automated vehicles could provide mobility to the ‘mobility disadvantaged’
Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
October 24,
New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles
Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)
Oct 16, EstablishesNew Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164 Sponsors: Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)
Oct 16, [Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541](https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2018/Bills/A5000/4541_I1.PDF)
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14);
Lampitt
(D6)..." [Read more](https://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/NVIDIA-Self-Driving-Safety-Report-2018.pdf) Hmmmm....
Things are
beginning to
move in New
Jersey. Alain
Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM
June 12, 2018 [CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS](http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M215/K467/215467801.PDF)
3, 2018
[Waymo's fleet of self-driving minivans is about to get 100 times bigger](https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/31/17412908/waymo-chrysler-pacifica-minvan-self-driving-fleet)
May 25, 2018 [PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/NTSBuberPreliminaryMay2018.pdf)
May 24, “About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.
…The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."[Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/NTSBuberPreliminaryMay2018.pdf)
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
“…According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph…” (= 63 feet/second) So the system started “seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away… more than a football field, including end zones!
“…As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path…” (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this “object’ as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected “future travel paths.” Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber’s system attached to the “object”, then the “vehicle”. Why didn’t the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision? If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren’t they accurate? Why was the object classified as a “Vehicle” ?? When did it finally classify the object as a “bicycle”? Why did it change classifications? How often was the classification of this object done. Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object. In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a “pedestrian”when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber’s Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)
“…At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision” (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
“…According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. …” NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle behavior Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating “ “erratic vehicle behavior”. This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber system’s false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways.
“…The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. “ Wow! If Uber’s system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle. Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past “Peak valuation”.
“…The system is not designed to alert the operator. “ That may be the only good part of Uber’s design. In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don’t waste your time. If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast 30 and the 24 edition of May 10, 2018
March 24,
2018 [Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail](http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-uber-death-video-20180321-story.html)
April 17, 2017
Don’t Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars Video similar to part of Adam’s Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm … Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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