Video
version of SmartDrivingCars
PodCast 164.... Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
A, Gordon, June 11,"... Regardless of which policy you personally prefer, any effort to eliminate racism in American policing must figure out what to do about traffic enforcement, which is the leading cause of interactions between police and the public, according to the Department of Justice. And, by law, it is almost entirely up to the officer whether to let the person go with a warning, give them a ticket, ask to search their vehicle, or escalate the situation even further. It is an interaction intentionally designed to let the officer do virtually whatever he or she wants, reflecting the inherent biases of our legal system.
Police pull
over more than
20 million
motorists
every year,
according to
the Stanford
Policing
Project,
which
undertook a
first-of-its-kind
large scale
study into
what happens
during more
than 100
million
traffic stops.
It found
“police
require less
suspicion to
search Black
and Hispanic
drivers than
white drivers.
This double
standard is
evidence of
discrimination.”
But, traffic
enforcement is
not just the
most common
way police
interact with
people. It is
also a
foundational
element to
modern
policing that
encapsulates
how things got
so bad and
why..
The problem, Seo told Motherboard, has to do with the history of the automobile in America itself. Before the car, basic tort law handled street conflict well enough; if your wagon ran into mine and caused damage to me or my property and we couldn’t settle it like reasonable adults, I’d sue you. This stopped being good enough once cars flooded roads, causing all sorts of conflict and crashes, not to mention death..." Read more Hmmmm.... Fine, police need to enforce traffic laws, but why do police with guns need to enforce traffic laws? How many of those 20 million "pull-overs" involve "Bonnie & Clyde"???? Parking tickets are passed out by persons without guns, cars are towed by person's without guns. Why are guns needed to give tickets to those speeding or have broken tail lights? We can then save the well trained individuals that know how to respect and use guns for duties that really need those trained individuals rather than enforcing traffic laws Alain
Reuters,
July 9, "U.S.
electric
vehicle maker
Tesla is “very
close” to
achieving
level 5
autonomous
driving
technology,
CEO Elon Musk
said on
Thursday,
referring to
the capability
to navigate
roads without
any driver
input.
“I’m extremely
confident that
level 5, or
essentially
complete
autonomy, will
happen, and I
think will
happen very
quickly,” Musk
said in
remarks made
via a video
message at the
opening of
Shanghai’s
annual World
Artificial
Intelligence
Conference
(WAIC).
“I remain
confident that
we will have
the basic
functionality
for level 5
autonomy
complete this
year.”..." Read
more Hmmmm.... "Basic
functionality"
is only the
beginning of
the "Level 5"
process. The
"Level 5"
business case
requires
either:
1. Elon
to absorb all
responsibilities and their implied liabilities if anything goes
bad while you
are using the
"Level 5
Tesla" that
you bought
from him. He
doesn't have
enough money
implied
liability, or
2. He
could decide
to build and
operate a
mobility
machine that
incorporates
his automated
driving
technology but
he hasn't even
hinted at
that. So all
he is doing is
pumping up
with hot air
the value of
his shares.
Alain
F. Manjoo.
July 9, "As
coronavirus
lockdowns
crept across
the globe this
winter and
spring, an
unusual sound
fell over the
world’s
metropolises:
the hush of
streets that
were suddenly,
blessedly free
of cars. ...
Cars took a
break from
killing
people, too. About
10 pedestrians
die on New
York City’s
streets in an
ordinary
month. Under
lockdown,
the city went
a record two
months without
a single
pedestrian
fatality.
In California,
vehicle
collisions
plummeted 50
percent,
reducing
accidents
resulting in
injuries or
death by about
6,000 per
month.
As the roads
became freer
of cars, they
grew full of
possibility.
Rollerblading
and
skateboarding
have come back
into fashion.
Sales of
bicycles and
electric bikes
have
skyrocketed.
But there is a
catch: Cities
are beginning
to cautiously
open back up
again, and
people are
wondering how
they’re going
to get into
work. Many are
worried about
the spread of
the virus on
public
transit. Are
cars our only
option? How
will we find
space for all
of them?
In much of
Manhattan, the
average speed
of traffic
before the
pandemic had
fallen to 7
miles per
hour. In
Midtown, it
was less than
5 m.p.h.
That’s only
slightly
faster than
walking and
slower than
riding a bike.
Will traffic
soon be worse
than ever?
Not if we
choose another
path...." Read more
Hmmm...
Correct! Cars
should not be
in Manhattan.
It has a
subway. Very
few other US
city centers
have the
density to
warrant an NYC
type subway.
For everyone
else (at least
300 million of
the 328
million
Americans)
that is
fortunate
enough, cars
are really
great and what
is proposed
here is
marginal at
best from the
perspective of
the
individual.
Very nice interactive graphics. Alain
A.
Marshall, July
7, "BUILDING A
SELF-DRIVING
car was never
going to be
easy. But Karl
Iagnemma says
he didn’t
expect it to
be this hard.
“Vehicles are
these
massively
complex
systems, and
to [build
self-driving
cars], we need
to integrate
them with
another very
complex system
and do it in a
way that’s
reliable and
cost-optimized.
It’s really,
really hard,”
says Iagnemma,
the president
and CEO of a
joint venture
formed in
March between
South Korea’s
Hyundai and
Aptiv, which
designs
automotive
electronic
systems. “I
think that's
one of the
things that
most players
in the
industry
underappreciated,
myself
included.”
That
realization
has led to a
rash of
partnerships
between
established
automakers and
self-driving
startups.
Think Aptiv
and Hyundai;
Waymo and
Jaguar;
General Motors
and Cruise;
Argo AI and
Ford and
Volkswagen.
The Covid-19
pandemic has
only
heightened the
need for
partners, as
venture
capitalists
tighten the
purse strings
on big bets
like
self-driving.
“$1 billion is
the price of
an entry
ticket in the
autonomous-driving space today,” says Iagnemma.
Last month,
Zoox was
acquired by
Amazon for a
reported $1.1
billion,
two-thirds
less than its
2018
valuation. In
self-driving,
it’s getting
harder to go
at it alone.
“The list of
independent
startups that
are tackling
[autonomous
vehicles]
without a
mothership
continues to
get smaller,”
says Oliver
Cameron,
cofounder and
CEO of the
startup
Voyage, which
aims to build
and then
operate
self-driving
vehicles
inside
retirement
communities.
As a result,
“every
quarter,
there’s a
casualty,” he
says. “Zoox
was this
quarter.” In
May, Voyage
announced a
partnership
with
Fiat-Chrysler
Automobiles to
integrate its
tech into a
handful of
Pacifica
minivans...."
Read
more
Hmmmm.... Of
course, but at
this point,
the car is
produced by
many extremely
competent and
experienced
entities. It
is thus the
commodity. A
sufficiently
good
personless
driver has yet
to emerge as
the
differentiator
and dominant
trail blazer.
Alain
A. Hawkins,
July 2, "Tesla
said on
Thursday that
it was able to
deliver 90,650
vehicles
during the
last quarter,
despite its
Fremont,
California
factory being
partially shut
down due to
the
coronavirus
pandemic. Wall
Street
analysts had
expected the
electric
automaker to
only deliver
about 72,000
vehicles
during the
last three
months,
according to
CNBC.
This was the
second
consecutive
quarter of
better-than-expected
delivery
numbers from
Tesla. The
company
delivered
88,400
vehicles in Q1
of 2020, down
from the
fourth quarter
of 2019, when
Tesla shipped
around 112,000
vehicles....
Tesla said in
a press
release.
"
Read
more Hmmm...
Impressive!
Alain
K.
Wiggers, July
6, "By all
appearances,
May Mobility
was a scrappy
success story.
The autonomous
transportation
startup made
its debut at Y
Combinator’s
demo day in
2017,...But on
the inside
looking out,
it was a
different
story. May
engineers
struggled to
maintain and
upgrade the
company’s
vehicle
platform, at
one point
spending
months
attempting to
install an air
conditioning
system in the
depths of
summer. The
leadership’s
ambition often
outstretched
May’s ability
to deliver,
which upset
vendors, some
of whom went
unpaid for
stretches. And
not a single
one of the
company’s
commercial
routes
approached
full autonomy.
Conversations
with former
May employees
reveal a
startup
struggling to
stand out in
an industry
dominated by
incumbents
like Waymo,
Uber, Aurora,
Cruise, and
Amazon’s Zoox.
As one source
put it, May’s
intent might
not have been
malicious —
executives at
the top were
convinced it
would succeed.
But
overeagerness
and
inexperience
led to
missteps that
soured
municipal
relationships....
After 500
hours of
testing at the
Quonset
Business Park
in North
Kingstown,
Rhode Island,
humans had to
override the
GEM’s systems
for left-hand
turns with
traffic, right
turns on red,
rain, wind,
pedestrians
standing at
crosswalks,
construction
work zones,
certain
four-way
intersections,
speed bumps,
potholes, and
aggressive
drivers.
Foliage also
caused
complications
because the
preprogrammed
route was
mapped when
trees were
bare. Once the
leaves and
other foliage
emerged, it
disrupted the
camera, radar,
and lidar
sensors that
helped the
shuttles to
navigate.
One source
described
May’s autonomy
as “all over
the map.”
While some
days saw
autonomy rates
hit 80% to
90%,
performance
often dipped
“well under”
that mark....
.May’s stumbles didn’t end with engineering. Operational challenges resulted in lower-than-anticipated ridership, with most rides — which were free during pilots — falling short of break-even. One source pegs each deployment’s losses at over $1 million a year....
After its pilots in Columbus and Rhode Island came to a close and planned deployments in Florida and Texas fell through, May redoubled its efforts in Grand Rapids and Detroit with Bedrock, the real estate firm associated with Quicken Loans chairman Dan Gilbert. It was recently announced that GHSP, a company developing an ultraviolet-C treatment that automatically disinfects the air and high-touch surfaces within vehicles, would receive $80,000 from the Michigan Economic Development’s PlanetM program to install the treatment in May’s shuttles.... " Read more Hmmm... Yipes! Unless they can become driverless, there isn't much value in the automation. (Driverless doesn't only enable one to reduce operating costs, it also enable demand-responsive operation... allowing vehicles to sit and wait without incurring a labor charge and taking you to where you want to go. Many conventional buses move around empty a non-trivial amount of time. Their operation is heavily biased on the "when" of the driver's work schedule rather than the"when" of the customer's deire to travel. Thus there is no service when some people want to travel and there is serve when very few want to travel. Replacement of the driver with a computer enables the timing of the service and its spatial scope to be better aligned to customer's demands. Alain
R. Glon,
July 3, "...
Ridesharing is
undeniably
down, but it’s
not out. As
self-driving
car technology
continues its
steady march
forward,
ridesharing
could very
well bounce
back as a
convenient —
and safe —
mode of
transportation.
Autonomous
vehicles that
hold one fewer
warm,
breathing body
feel more
relevant than
ever before.
To get a
glimpse of the
road ahead,
Digital Trends
spoke with
Waymo, one of
the leaders in
the field, to
find out how
the
coronavirus-related
lockdowns and
stay-at-home
orders
affected its
operations,
and what it’s
doing to
maintain the
trust of its
growing
ridership....
" Read
more Hmmm... Not
dead, but
sedated,
strapped and
on a
ventilator.
Not a good
place to be.
I was one of
the lucky ones
to survive. I
sure hope
ridesharing is
as fortunate.
Alain
Z. Shahan,
July 5, "...
Perhaps the
two most
notable
players in
this field
other than
Tesla, from my
perspective,
are Zoox
(because it
was just
bought by
Amazon, which
has potential
to develop its
tech at an
enormous
scale) and
Argo.AI
(company site
here). Why
Argo.AI? Well,
not being an
AI expert and
not having
much insight
into the
details of the
various
startups
anyway, it’s
not from some
analysis of
Argo.AI’s
competitive
advantage. It
mostly (but
not entirely)
comes down to
its potential
to quickly
collect data
at a massive
scale.
(Though,
potential is a
key word
there.)..." Read
more Hmmm...
What??? If
you are still
dependent on
collecting
data, you are
way behind.
Whatever???
Alain
Staff, July
8, "People
will be using
driverless
cars to
Barnard Castle
before
driverless
trains operate
on London
Underground,
claims ASLEF
General
Secretary Mick
Whelan.
The leader of
the drivers’
union was
responding to
Prime Minister
Boris
Johnson’s
suggestion
that
driverless LU
trains could
be a condition
of the
emergency
funding for
Transport for
London.
Johnson
discussed the
idea at the
launch of
construction
of Siemens’
Goole factory,
where the
first tranche
of new Deep
Tube trains
will be built
for the
Piccadilly
Line.
Johnson told ITV News: “You can run these trains without the need for somebody to be sitting in the driver’s cab the whole time...." Read more Hmmm... Just because you can doesn't mean you will. One might have thought that private freight railroads might buy out union contracts to help them survive once we stop burning coal and there is no demand for 200 car long coal unit trains. Unfortunately there are no signs freight railroads are going to change their long unit train business model. Very small labor cost per car, but very infrequent service between very few places and zero service between most places. Alain
[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.5&filename=lmjdiniodjkflpia.png" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" class="" width="38" height="42" border="0"> Draft Program 4th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit Postponed until Evening Oct. 20 through Oct. 22, 2020 (But will likely need to be completely Virtual, possibly in "Second life")[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.5&filename=lmjdiniodjkflpia.png" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" class="" width="46" height="52" border="0">
F. Fishkin, July 2, "Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. ." ... Alain
F. Fishkin,
June 2, "But
the debate is
not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
Video version... Watch our first attempt.... Alain
F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund."
March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
Press
release, June
15,
"The U.S.
Department of
Transportation
today
announced nine
companies and
eight States
that have
signed on as
the first
participants
in a new
Department
initiative to
improve the
safety and
testing
transparency
of automated
driving
systems, the
Automated
Vehicle
Transparency
and Engagement
for Safe
Testing (AV
TEST)
Initiative.
The
participating
companies are
Beep, Cruise,
Fiat Chrysler
Automobiles,
Local Motors,
Navya, Nuro,
Toyota, Uber,
and Waymo.
The States are
California,
Florida,
Maryland,
Michigan,
Ohio,
Pennsylvania,
Texas, and
Utah.
“Through this
initiative,
the Department
is creating a
formal
platform for
Federal,
State, and
local
government to
coordinate and
share
information in
a standard
way,” said
U.S.
Transportation
Secretary
Elaine L.
Chao. ...
This
initiative
aligns with
the
Department’s
leadership on
automated
driving system
vehicles,
including AV 4.0: Ensuring American
Leadership in
Automated
Vehicle
Technologies."
Read
more Hmmm...
Excellent.
This is really
good because
it is promotes
and organizes
the open
sharing of
safety
information
assoiated with
automated
driving.
This is
extremely
important
because safety
of these
systems is a
necessary
condition for
their
adoption.
Unfortunately, a few things seem to be missing from the
announcement.
R. Dale Hall, June 12, "...By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines...." Read more Hmmm... Excellent! An enormous amount here. See especially FIg 11 and 17. These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, ... An enormous amount to digest here. Excellent. Alain
M.
Sena, May 26,
"Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
has three
facets. Two of
them are
mainly of
interest to
vehicle OEMs
and their
suppliers.
They are
vehicle-centric
and
customer-centric.
Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency
notification,
logistics
tracking and
over-the-air
updating.
Customer
centric
connectivity
includes many
services that
are also
provided by
mobile apps
outside of the
vehicle, such
as music
streaming,
workshop
service
booking,
traffic
notifications
and car
sharing
applications.
Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
today is a
major
competitive
factor for the
OEMs.
The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it....
Lance
Eliot, April
28, "Several
self-driving
car luminaries
assembled
online via a
Zoom-casted
battleground
this week to
undertake a
Lincoln-Douglas
style debate
about the
future of the
Autonomous
Vehicle (AV)
self-driving
car industry
and the advent
of AI-driven
mobility.
Originally
scheduled for
one hour, the
dialogue and
fielding of
audience
questions
prompted the
superstars to
keep going,
tackling many
of the most
vexing and
unsolved
matters that
underlie the
potential
success of
self-driving
vehicles,
encompassing
both
autonomous
cars and
autonomous
trucks.
The lively
discussion was
civil and
polite,
fortunately so
in these times
of seemingly
stark
polarization
and guttural
attacks during
our
contemporary
public
discourse.
Yet, even in
the realm of
eloquent
argumentation,
at times the
gloves came
off and there
were some
fierce zingers
and moments of
rather
piercing
cut-the-air-with-a-knife
verbal
sparring..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for
the kind and
thorough
synopsis of
our 1st
Zoom-inar. We
were all
pleased by the
turnout,
interaction
and substance.
Alain
V.
Bajaj, April
22,"A main
benchmark for
the price of
oil fell
negative for
the first time
ever this
week. The
decline —
more than 300
percent in
daily trading
— raised fresh
questions
about the
damage the
coronavirus is
having on the
global
economy.
What does it
mean for oil
prices to be
negative?
A benchmark
price for a
barrel of oil
to be
delivered next
month fell to
-$37.63 on
Monday, which
means that
sellers would
have to pay
someone that
much to take
it off their
hands.
But that
historic
plunge was
exacerbated by
a quirk in how
the oil
markets work.
The negative
price
concerned only
contracts for
delivery of
barrels in May
that are
traded on
so-called
futures
markets. At
the same time
trading
happens for
May
deliveries,
people trade
on contracts
ending in
June, in July
and so on." Read
more Hmmmm... What??? I realize that
I'm often "out
of it",
but... In all
my life I have
NEVER...
thought of,
let alone
mentioned, nor
have heard
anyone else
mention the
concept of negative
oil!
Often, talked
about $150/B
oil, $250/B,
S20/B even
$7/B oil.
NEVER $0/B
oil,
negative
Oil...
NEVER,NEVER,
NEVER!!!! and
look where we
are. UNBELIEVABLE!!!
Implications:...
no one's
models
extrapolate to
that regime.
(it requires
extrapolation
because no
data exists in
this
unimaginable
region.
Listen to Pod-Cast;
Watch Zoom-Cast
Alain
R. Bishop,
Mar 24, "I met
Stefan
Seltz-Axmacher
for the first
time in
November 2015
at the Florida
Automated
Vehicles
Summit. Not
long after, we
met at the
Blue Danube
coffee shop in
Alameda, CA so
he could tell
me about his
vision for
Starsky
Robotics. When
he
energetically
described his
remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. “Remote driving is
hard,” I said.
“The military
has struggled
with this for
years. Its
harder than it
looks.” On the
technical
side, latency
for secure
communications
is
challenging.
On the
operational
side,
re-creating
enough on-road
reality
(situational
awareness) for
a remote
driver is
difficult when
going for the
high levels of
safety needed.
Seltz-Axmacher
remained
bullish on the
approach and
at that time
went on to
found Starsky
Robotics as
one of the
earliest truck
AV startups,
later closing
a $16.5M
Series A
funding round
in March 2018,
and then
hauling
freight while
developing
both remote
and automated
driving
ability.
Initially,
Starsky’s
concept was
all about
remote driving
for first/last
mile. They
later expanded
their offering
to include
fully
automated
highway
driving on
limited
freight
corridors.
Now, Starsky
has become the
first casualty
within a
crowded truck
automation
space, and
Seltz-Axmacher
has provided
us with an
intriguing
post-mortem in
a recent
Medium post.
Most of the
media coverage
I’ve seen has
acted as echo
chambers for
Seltz-Axmacher’s
perspective.
Here I offer a
counterpoint
based on my
longtime
involvement in
truck
automation
plus
discussions
with many
others in the
truck
Automated
Driving
Systems (ADS)
startup space,
many of them
irate at what
they see as
unfounded
assertions
made in the
original post.
My sources
tell me that
because
Seltz-Axmacher
hasn't
experienced
their
technology nor
been briefed
on their
technical/safety
approach, he
has no basis
to make
sweeping
claims about
the entire
industry...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Listen
to PodCast 148.
or/and Watch
us on YouTube.
Alain
K. Korosec,
Mar. 17,
"Waymo said
Tuesday it is
pausing
operations of
Waymo One, a
service in the
Phoenix area
that allows
the public to
hail rides in
self-driving
vehicles with
trained human
safety
operators
behind the
wheel, in
response to
the COVID-19
pandemic.
Waymo is also
halting
testing on
public roads
in California.
However, Waymo
will keep some
operations up
and running,
notably its
truly
driverless
vehicles,
which don’t
require a
human safety
driver,
according to
an
announcement
on its website
Tuesday. These
driverless
vehicles are
used in the
Phoenix area
as part of
Waymo’s early
rider program
that lets
vetted members
of the public
hail a
ride..." Read
more Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the
latest is not
so good... Waymo has suspended all services, including
the
driverless.
Poopie!!!
Alain
Kyle
Vogt, Jan 17,
"In a few
weeks the
California DMV
will release
disengagements
data from
Cruise and
other
companies who
test AVs on
public roads.
This data is
really great
for giving the
public a sense
of what’s
happening on
the roads.
Unfortunately,
it has also
been used by
the media and
others to
compare
technology
from different
AV companies
or as a proxy
for commercial
readiness.
Since it’s the
only publicly
available
metric, I
don’t really
blame them for
using it. But
it’s woefully
inadequate for
most uses
beyond those
of the DMV.
The idea that
disengagements
give a
meaningful
signal about
whether an AV
is ready for
commercial
deployment is
a myth. ..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Amen! This is a MUST
read. As with
everything, details
matter. It is
true that
figures don't
lie, but but
it is easy to
game systems
such that
figures,
without the
underlying
details, do
lie. As Kyle
points out,
there are
important
details
associated
with
disengagements.
These need to
be well
understood for
disengagements
to be a proxy
for safety and
market
readiness. The
when, where
and associated
details of
each
disengagement
is critically
important if
the objective
is safety and
market
readiness.
What is also most important here
is the
underlying
objective of
the companies
doing the
tests and
reporting the
data. As has
happened in
our secondary
education
where students
are taught
what is in and
how to take
the SATs
rather than
just learn.
The objective
is not
learning , but
getting 800s
on the SATs so
that they can
get into
'Princeton'.
This is
perpetuated by
the
'Princetons'
of this world
that don't
look into the
details of the
student's
academic
qualities and
capabilities.
In the
academic
world, we know
these students
as 'box
checkers',
gamers of the
college
admission
process. The
gaming is
continued by
the 'banks and
med schools'
that use
simplistic GPA
(Grade Point
Average, aka
'disengagements')
cutoffs. The
'box checkers'
then take
'underwater
basket
weaving'
courses and
become grade
grubbers. It
is lazy and
irresponsible
to use
simplistic
measures as
proxies to
very complex
concepts such
as
intelligence,
creativity,
compatibility,
and all the
other details
that make a
good student,
a good
employee, a
good citizen,
a good
mobility
system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig". It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? AlainA. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSight is standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="79" height="131">
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
R.
Wile, Nov 22,
"Sen. Jeff
Brandes (R-St.
Petersburg)
had just
finished
serving in the
Army, and was
looking to
make a name
for himself in
Tallahassee as
a junior
representative.
He came across
a talk given
by the founder
of Google’s
driverless car
project.
He quickly
realized the
potential of
self-driving
cars to
transform many
aspects of
daily life.
Ever since, he
has made it
his mission to
turn Florida
into what he
calls “an
angel
investor” in
automation
policy. “We
want to have
policies in
place for this
technology to
flourish,”
Brandes said
in an
interview at
the 7th Annual
Florida
Automated
Vehicles
conference in
Miami, which
concluded
Friday.
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes
New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
May
24, "About
9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As
the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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