[log in to unmask]" _mf_state="1" title="null" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
A. Hawkins,
Feb. 11,
"Unsurprisingly,
there was much
less
autonomous
vehicle
testing in
California in
2020 compared
to years
prior. The
COVID-19
pandemic and
ensuing
lockdowns
forced many
AVs off the
road in the
early part of
the year. But
companies
licensed to
operate AVs on
public roads
in California
still logged
nearly 2
million miles
of testing,
with two of
the top
operators,
Waymo and
Cruise,
comprising the
bulk of those
miles thanks
to what some
safety drivers
allege was a
lax attitude
toward safety.
Autonomous
vehicles
registered in
California
traveled
approximately
1.99 million
miles in
autonomous
mode on public
roads in 2020,
a decrease of
about 800,000
miles from the
previous year,
according to
the state’s
Department of
Motor
Vehicles.
These mileage
figures were
reported as
part of the
state’s annual
“disengagement
reports,”
which all
licensed
operators are
required to
submit. In
addition to
the miles
driven, the
reports list
the frequency
at which human
safety drivers
were forced to
take control
of their
autonomous
vehicles (also
known as a
“disengagement”).
The disengagement reports are widely disparaged as being, at best, meaningless and, at worse, misleading. ..." Read more Hmmmm... My position.. these disengagement reports should NOT be disparaged! They reflect the seriousness of the testing effort by each company. The objective of testing is to "learn the unknowns", find the limits of the technology, learn and improve. No disengagements implies that one has stopped learning. Anyone that's in the business will always have many disengagements because they are working to get better. Those with few or no disengagements, are likely to be "putting lipstick on a pig" and looking to flip; so be aware!! Alain
Z. Wadud,
Feb. 2020,
"One of the
largest
uncertainties
in modelling
the impacts of
autonomous
vehicles in
future is
whether they
will be owned
or used as
automated ride
(hailing)
services. This
paper
addresses this
issue by
modelling the
inherent
attractiveness
or convenience
value of
ownership of
an automated
vehicle,
beyond the
regular
convenience
parameters
such as
journey time,
waiting or
access time
and
reliability.
Using mixed
logit model on
a choice
experimentation
data, we find
that ownership
is inherently
valued more
compared to
the ride
services by
women...." Read
more Hmmmm... See also video
summary.
No doubt there
is a value in
owning an AV,
the deeper
question: Is
there net
positive value
in owning when
you consider
owning
requires
responsibility
in the
maintenance
and use of the
AV which in
turn requires
the owner
to accept the
liability of
any damages
done to
society by the
AV?
When I ponder that deeper question, my conclusion has
invariably
been that
there is no
viable
business case
/market. I
can’t imagine
any public
need or
benefit that
would provide
sufficient
financial
backstop to
make this
concept
anything but
DoA. Alain
Staff, Feb.
12, "A new
report by the
EC’s Joint
Research
Center (JRC)
and the
European Union
Agency for
Cybersecurity
(ENISA) examines
cybersecurity
risks
connected to
artificial
intelligence
(AI) in
autonomous
vehicles and
provides
recommendations
for mitigating
them.
By removing
the most
common cause
of traffic
accidents—the
human
driver—autonomous
vehicles are
expected to
reduce traffic
accidents and
fatalities.
However, they
may pose a
completely
different type
of risk to
drivers,
passengers and
pedestrians.
The uptake
of AI in
autonomous
driving brings
about
important
cybersecurity
concerns. The
increased
digitalization
of vehicles
and the
inclusion of
AI
functionalities
result in a
larger attack
surface and
might
significantly
increase the
incentives for
attackers to
target AVs.
Cyberattacks
against AVs do
not only
concern the
particularities
related to AI,
but also
include the
security of
the underlying
digital
infrastructure
and related
digital
systems. It is
thus crucial
to evolve
existing
security
processes and
practices to
consider this
increased
uptake of AI
technologies
and
digitalization
in vehicles,
particularly
in the context
of autonomous
driving...."
Read
more
Hmmmm...Especially read the original report (cybersecurity
challenges in
uptake of AI
in autonomous
driving).
Moreover... to
me the cyber
threat is
overblown
(Note: "Level
3", which is
depicted on
the cover of
the report to
be the target
of Cyber
Security,
won't, for a
host of other
reasons, even
emerge as a
viable
market. There
won't even be
anything for
Cyber Security
to kill.)
Sure, there are bad actors out there trying to do bad in
every market.
(I lock my
front door
because
someone may
came in and
take my
stuff. So I
have to not
only buy a
door, but also
a lock. The
first line of
defense
against those
who may want
to do bad is
education...
make it known
that if you
do, it will
cost you.
That is why we
have fencing
lining
walkways above
roadways so
that "kids"
don't drop
bowling balls
on the cars
traveling
below.
Hopefully we
also have
teachers in
grade school
also telling
them "that's
not a good
thing to
do".
Problem with Cyber may well be that not enough "teachers
and parents"
are tell kids
not to hack
from their
parent's
basement.
Now if some member of the "Proud Boys" is really intent
on invading
the ... .
Hopefully,
there aren't
any "Proud
Boys" focused
on AVs; else,
we have a very
serious
problem and we
won't have
AVs. We
certainly
won't have
"Connected
Vehicles". At
least AVs try
as much as
possible to
rely on
themselves to
do the right
thing, rather
than await
information/instructions
from some
external
entity that
the "Proud
Boys" are
prepared to
disrupt. Alain
J. Shieber,
Feb 11,
"Shell’s plan
to roll out 500,000
electric
charging
stations
in just four
years is the
latest sign of
an EV charging
infrastructure
boom that has
prompted
investors to
pour cash into
the industry
and inspired a
few companies
to become
public
companies in
search of the
capital needed
to meet
demand.
Since the
beginning of
the year,
three
companies have
been acquired
by special
purpose
acquisition
vehicles and
are on a path
to go public,
while a third
has raised
tens of
millions from
some of the
biggest names
in private
equity
investing for
its own path
to commercial
viability.
The SPAC
attack began
in September
when an
electric
vehicle
charging
network
ChargePoint
struck a deal
to merge with
special
purpose
acquisition
company
Switchback
Energy
Acquisition
Corporation,
with a market
valuation of
$2.4 billion.
The company’s
public listing
will debut
February 16 on
the New York
Stock
Exchange..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Look also at EV charging stations, biofuels,
the hydrogen
transition and
chemicals are
pillars of
Shell’s
climate plan. Are the oil giants morphing
into the
Climate
giants? Why
not? Alain
A. Hawkins,
Feb. 11, "Uber
and Lyft
reported their
quarterly
earnings this
week, and
while both
companies are
showing signs
of
improvement,
the COVID-19
pandemic
continues to
cast a long
shadow over
the overall
ride-hailing
business.
It raises the
question of
how both
companies,
neither of
which have
ever turned a
profit, can
hope to claw
their way out
of the deeper
financial pit
in which
they’ve been
cast by
COVID...." Read
more Hmmmm... It begs the question...
It is easy for
them to get
even less
"unprofitable"
by going out
of business
entirely.
Getting "less
unprofitable"
is not the
objective.
Getting
sufficiently
profitable to
support their
current
valuation, let
alone a higher
valuation is
the proper
question for
which they may
have little
"hope or
prayer" and
only the "GameStop"
phenomenon
remains.
Alain
S. Harley, Jan. 31, "Hydrogen. In theory, it’s the perfect fuel. Run it through a fuel cell and you get electricity, water vapor, and heat. Doesn’t get any more Earth friendly than that, does it? There is theory and then there is reality, starting with where one gets the hydrogen in the first place....
General
Motors, in
partnership
with Navistar,
says it will
focus on fuel
cell
powertrains
for such long
haul trucks,
while in
Europe,
Scania, which
is part of the
Volkswagen
group, has
announced it
is abandoning
its fuel cell
truck program
to concentrate
on battery
power. One of
these
companies has
correctly
assessed the
future of zero
emission truck
transportation
but which
one?... " Read
more Hmmmm...Yup! Which one will
win? Alain
A. Adler,
Feb 3,
"Daimler AG
(OTC: DDAIF)
plans to
create a
separate
company for
its Daimler
Truck business
that would
focus on
zero-emissions
vehicles and
software that
could lead to
autonomous
trucking.
The decision
by Daimler’s
supervisory
board to move
forward
follows
several years
of discussion.
The German
newspaper
Handelsblatt
reported in
December that
Daimler was
considering
acting before
the end of
2021.
Shareholders
will vote on
the spinoff at
a special
meeting in the
third quarter.
The Daimler
Group paved
the way for
Wednesday’s
action when it
separated the
car and van
and the truck
and bus
businesses
into two
subsidiaries
in November
2019...." Read
more Hmmmm... Trucking is different,
but AV
companies such
as Waymo and
Aurora seem to
think that
there is a lot
of synergy
when it comes
to automation
of driving as
is likely the
case with
"zero
emission"
objectives.
They are
focused on
both markets.
So I'm
confused.
What is really
going on here?
Why is Daimler
walking away
from
synergies???
Alain
A. Hawkins,
Feb. 9, "It’s
2021 and we’re
still finding
unique ways to
pair up to
develop
self-driving
cars. The
latest is
between
Toyota, AV
startup
Aurora, and
auto part
supplier
Denso. The
three
companies will
join forces to
develop a
fleet of
robotaxis,
with the first
hitting the
road by the
end of this
year.
It’s a big get
for Aurora,
the scrappy AV
startup
founded by
Chris Urmson,
the former
head engineer
of Google’s
self-driving
car project,
among others.
Toyota, which
outsold
Volkswagen in
2020 to
reclaim its
status as the
biggest
automaker in
the world, is
one of the few
car companies
that has yet
to pair up
with an
autonomous
vehicle
startup.
Denso, which
spun out of
Toyota in the
mid-20th
century, is
one of the
largest auto
suppliers on
the planet. So
Aurora is now
officially
rolling with
the big dogs.
The companies
plan to
develop and
test
driverless
vehicles
equipped with
Aurora’s
self-driving
hardware and
software
stack,
starting with
the Toyota
Sienna
minivan. “By
the end of
2021, we
expect to have
designed,
built, and
begun testing
an initial
fleet of these
Siennas near
our areas of
development,”
the companies
said...." Read
more Hmmmm... This is non-trivial.
Before the
Elaine
Herzberg
crash, Toyota
was a
substantial
player in the
AV field.
That crash
caused them to
"temporarily" suspend
testing.
Toyota has
sheepishly
returned to
testing. In
2020, Toyota
Research
Institute logged in California only 2,875 miles of
testing using
7 vehicles that logged 214 disengagements.
Looks like a
lot was
learned, but
Toyota must
have realized
that they have
a long way to
go and could
really use
Chris' help to
be viable.
Alain
K. Kockelman, Feb. 2021, "
Press
release, Feb
3, "
Locomation,
the world’s
first trucking
technology
platform to
offer
human-guided
autonomous
convoying,
announced
today the
hiring of
Finch Fulton,
the former
Deputy
Assistant
Secretary of
Policy at the
US Department
of
Transportation
as the Vice
President of
Policy and
Strategy...."
Read
more
Hmmmm...Congratulations Finch. Alain
A.
Mutschhler,
Feb 4. "..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Don't bother. Totally
Sunday
Supplement.
Alain
K. Barry, Feb 3, "The beginning of the year is traditionally when automotive journalists can predict the future—not with tarot cards or crystal balls, but with notes and recordings taken during a flurry of events where automakers, suppliers, and industry insiders show off their latest wares, take the wraps off new technology, and make announcements about upcoming model years....
Augmented
Reality: ...
Augmented
reality at
work, showing
navigation and
hazards
PHOTO:
PANASONIC....
" Read
more Hmmmm... Take a look at the
heads-up
display. Who
would ever
want that in
their face all
the time as
they
drive???? The
information,
if known,
should be
keeping the
car from
speeding,
hitting the
bicyclist,
stopping you
from advancing
if you can't
clear 12'6",
etc.! instead
of putting all
of that
distraction in
your face. So
bad!!!!!
Alain
These
editions are
sponsored by
the SmartETFs
Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information
head to www.motoetf.com
F. Fishkin,
Nov 25, "What
you should
know about
electric cars,
climate change
and more. The
Dispatcher
publisher
Michael Sena
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin in an
eye opening
edition of
Smart Driving
Cars.."
F. Fishkin, Nov 24, "When it comes to active driver assistance systems, what works and what needs improvement? Some answers from Kelly Funkhouser… program manager for vehicle interface, head of connected and automated vehicles at Consumer Reports. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 186 of Smart Driving Cars."
F. Fishkin, July 20, "Is Driverless home delivery the fastest route to Affordable Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged? ... "
F. Fishkin,
July 2,
"Transportation,
racial
injustices and
changing the
thinking
around the
future of
mobility. NYU
McSilver
Institute for
Poverty Policy
& Research
fellow Henry
Greenidge
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin in an
eye and mind
opening
episode of
Smart Driving
Cars. Plus
Amazon, Zoox,
Waymo, Tesla
& more.
."
F. Fishkin,
June 2, "But
the debate is
not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
G.
Laniewki, Jan
26.
"Ride-hailing
apps (Uber and
Lyft) have
long been
criticized for
their
inability to
generate
profit—
especially
now, since
they have been
one of the
hardest hit by
the pandemic1.
It seems that
the viability
of their
businesses
relies heavily
on automation,
eliminating
drivers to cut
their largest
cost and
hopefully
generating
profit.2 This
hail-mary
strategy rests
on that idea
that
autonomous
driving will
become a
valuable
industry—where
some have
estimated to
be worth as
much as $1.5
trillion3—and
any pioneering
company would
have a
non-nominal
market
penetration in
it.
With that
being said,
there is a
need for
research that
analyzes the
viability of
autonomous
ridesharing
while it’s in
its infancy.
Our approach
is
simulation-based
and is built
from a
foundation of
work from
previous
courses:..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Very nice Nation-wide
investigation
by my students
this past
Fall. Alain
E.
Chao, Jan.
2021, "The
Automated
Vehicles
Comprehensive
Plan
(Comprehensive
Plan)
describes how
the United
States
Department of
Transportation
(U.S. DOT) is
supporting the
safe
integration of
Automated
Driving
Systems (ADS)2
into the
surface
transportation
system. It
explains
Departmental
goals related
to ADS,
identifies
actions being
taken to meet
those goals,
and provides
real-world
examples of
how these
Departmental
actions relate
to emerging
ADS
applications...
" Read
more Hmmmm... I guess this is a good
plan. Of
course, Safety
is #1, as it
should be.
DoT's #1
public
responsibility
is Safety.
Whether Cyber
Security and
Privacy are #
2 and 3 and
ahead of
Enhanced
Mobility and
Accessibility
is certainly
debatable.
And if the Enhanced
Mobility and
Accessibility
of the
"mobility
disadvantaged
that have been
left behind by
our current
favored
transport
system" were
to be a
category, then
that one
should be
right behind
Safety at #2
if not ahead
of Safety and
a solid #1.
The rest. as
they should,
are
appropriately
details. What
is most
disconcerting
about the
report are the
images. To me,
those images
depict the
current
"haves", not
"have-nots"
and thus don't
really address
the mobility
needs and
desires of
those whose
quality-of-life
could be most
enhanced by
automation
technology.
These images
seem to focus
the Plan on
giving those
that already
have pretty
good ways to
get around,
yet another
way to get
around, where,
when you
finally get
right down to
it, may at
best be only
slightly
better than
what they
already have.
This
Comprehensive
Plan should
first be
focused on
providing
high-quality
affordable
mobility to
those whose
quality-of-life
could be most
improved by
such new
technologies
and
subsequently
serve those
that already
enjoy and can
afford other
high-quality
forms of
mobility.
Also, Elaine, thank you for a really good 4 years. You (and USDoT) were really the star of what was otherwise a most embarrassing Presidency. Also, thanks to Diana Furchtgott-Roth and many others in US DoT. Alain
C.
Isidore, Dec
17, "Automatic
braking, once
a feature
available
exclusively to
high-end cars,
is becoming
common across
the industry,
according to
analysis from
Consumer
Reports and
the Insurance
Institute for
Highway
Safety.
But the
industry has
some notable
exceptions,
including
General Motors
(GM) and Fiat
Chrysler
(FCAU), which
badly trail
rivals in
offering
automatic
braking as
standard
equipment,
according to
the safety
groups.
Automatic
braking uses
sensors to
apply brakes
when a vehicle
ahead is
stopped, and
the car's
onboard
computer can
avoid or
lessen the
impact of an
accident. It's
an
increasingly
popular
feature with
car buyers.
Many
automakers are
emphasizing
the feature in
their
advertising
and sales
pitches.
Four
higher-end
brands already
had the
feature on 99%
or better of
their vehicles
before this
past year:
Audi,
Mercedes-Benz,
Volvo and
Tesla (TSLA).
Six more have
the feature on
at least 96%
of the
vehicles they
sold in the
United States
between
September 2019
and September
2020: BMW,
Hyundai,
Mazda, Subaru,
Toyota (TM)
and Volkswagen
(VLKAF). Three
more
automakers —
Ford (F),
Honda (HMC)
and Nissan
(NSANF), had
automatic
braking on
more than 90%
of their US
vehicles....
" Read
more Hmmmm... Set up for the 3rd
session of the
SDC Summit.
Alain
D. Shapiro,
Dec. 17, "When
it comes to
future
mobility, you
may not have
to pave as
many paradises
for personal
car parking
lots.
This week,
autonomous
mobility
company Zoox
unveiled its
much-anticipated
purpose-built
robotaxi.
Designed for
everyday urban
mobility, the
vehicle is
powered by
NVIDIA and is
one of the
first level 5
robotaxis
featuring
bi-directional
capabilities,
providing a
concrete view
into the next
generation of
intelligent
transportation...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Watch Zoom-Cast 192.
Alain
C. Metz
& K.
Conger, Dec 7,
"Uber, which
spent hundreds
of millions of
dollars on a
self-driving
car project
that
executives
once believed
was a key to
becoming
profitable, is
handing the
autonomous
vehicle effort
over to a
Silicon Valley
start-up, the
companies said
on Monday.
Uber will also
invest $400
million in the
start-up,
called Aurora,
so it is
essentially
paying the
company to
take over the
autonomous car
operation,
which had
become a
financial and
legal
headache. Uber
is likely to
license
whatever
technology
Aurora manages
to create.
The deal
amounts to a
fire-sale end
to a
high-profile
but
star-crossed
effort to
replace
Uber’s human
drivers with
machines that
could drive on
their own. It
is also
indicative of
the challenges
facing other
autonomous
vehicle
projects,
which have
received
billions in
investments
from Silicon
Valley and
automakers but
have not
produced the
fleets of
robotic
vehicles some
thought would
be on the
streets by
now...." Read
more Hmmmm... Actually a good
article.
Alain
S. Wilmot,
Nov 30,
"Nikola Corp.
NKLA 0.76%
isn't turning
out to be the
next Tesla
that investors
and were
hoping for.
The
electric-vehicle
startup put
its
eye-catching
“Badgerâ€Â
pickup-truck
project on ice
Monday as part
of a radically
shrunken
version of its
deal with GM.
All that is
left of the
original
agreement
signed in
September is a
plan for GM to
supply Nikola
with fuel-cell
technology for
U.S. big rigs.
Detroit's
biggest auto
maker had
planned to
take an equity
stake in
Nikola in
exchange for
building the
Badger under
contract. But
the deal has
been in doubt
almost from
the start
after a
hedge-fund
report
detailed the
limitations of
Nikola's
technology,
leading to the
resignation of
founder Trevor
Milton.
GM won't sell
Nikola fuel
cells soon.
For all its
fanfare about
hydrogen, the
startup is
currently
focused on
battery-powered
versions of
its first
electric
truck, theTre,
It hopes to
start
full-scale
production in
the fourth
quarter of
next year in
Germany and in
early 2022 in
Coolidge,
Ariz. Hydrogen
trucks won't
come before
2023, and in
Europe Nikola
is using Bosch
as its
fuel-cell
supplier.
..." Read
more Hmmmm... Lessons for many in this
endeavor. See
also Andrew
Hawkin's take
as well as David
Morris'.
Alain
Support the creation of government policies and company practices to ensure that innovation and safety go hand-in-handIn October 2020, Consumer Reports published ratings of Active Driving Assistance Systems, defined as systems that allow the driver to use Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) and Lane Keeping Assistance (LKA) to simultaneously control both the speed and steering of the vehicle. An industry webinar was also held...." Read more Hmmmm.... A MUST read along with "Cadillac's Super Cruise Outperforms Other Driving Assistance Systems". Most unfortunately, CR has not picked up on my main complaint about ACC: Tapping of the brakes by the driver turns off the ACC! This is BAD!!! Even the hardest, let alone the slightest, engagement of the brakes should NOTturn off the ACC. It should ONLYdisengage the acceleration/throttle function of the ACC!
Use consumer data to inform the industry of best-practices to aid in development
Advocate for transparency and clarity in marketing and consumer education of systems
K. Pyle,
Nov 12, "A key
recommendation
from the 2017
pilot was to
explore
whether paying
at the pump
could work for
a road charge
just like it
does for the
gas tax. How
could the user
experience be
as easy as
possible? With
support from a
federal
Surface
Transportation
Funding
Alternative
grant,
California
will test how
road charge
can work with
four
technologies:
usage-based
insurance,
ridesharing,
electric
vehicle
charging
stations/pay-at-the-pump
systems, and
autonomous
vehicles.
Interested in
participating?
The
demonstration
will begin in
January 2021
and run for
six months.
Complete the Contact Us data
form to
express your
interest in
volunteering
for one or
more
demonstration
phases.... " Read
moreHmmmm... New Jersey is seeking
volunteers for
its version of
this. Participation is easy. You will
enroll via a
quick, online
enrollment
process, plug
a mileage
reporting
device into
your vehicle
and drive.
During the
pilot, you
will receive
monthly
simulated
statements
that compare
what you pay
in current
state fuel
taxes to what
you could pay
in an MBUF
system. It is
okay if you
are not
driving as
much as you
typically
would because
of the
COVID-19
Pandemic.
Your driving
data and
feedback
provided
through
anonymous
online surveys
will help us
understand key
issues such as
privacy,
equity and
administrative
costs with an
MBUF
system.
Please contact [log in to unmask] to participate and help n the New Jersey version. Use Subject: Please send, Body:Mileage-Base User Fee (MBUF) Demonstration registration information . We need volunteers. Thank you for helping. Alain
W.
Kaufman, Nov.
4, "Tesla
recently made
headlines with
the beta
launch of its
Full
Self-Driving
system. That
system comes
with a
disclaimer
saying,
“It
may do the
wrong thing at
the worst
time, so you
must always
keep your
hands on the
wheel and pay
extra
attention to
the
road.â€ÂÂÂ
Tesla's system
has impressive
capabilities,
but it's
definitely not
hands-free
driving. A few
years ago,
news stories
seemed to say
that
autonomous
vehicles were
just a few
years away.
Well, it's
been a few
years and
autonomous
vehicles are,
alas, still in
the future.
Right now,
there is no
car on sale
that can drive
itself without
requiring the
driver to pay
attention to
the road and
be prepared to
take control
of the
vehicle. In
fact, some
automakers
have slowed
down their
timelines.
Here are three
reasons why
you can't buy
a self-driving
car today and
one place
you're likely
to find them
first....
Waymo Team, Oct. 30, "On October 8th, Waymo opened its fully autonomous ride-hailing service to the general public in Phoenix. Right now members of the public are hailing vehicles with no human driver controlling the car – either in the vehicle or remotely – to help them get to where they're going as part of their everyday lives...." Read more Hmmmm...
N, Webb,
Oct. 30, "As
the world's
most
experienced
developer of
automated
driving
systems, Waymo
has extensive
experience in
developing and
applying
state-of-the-art
safety
methodologies.
Waymo's
methodologies
help implement
Waymo's
forward-looking safety philosophy: Waymo will reduce traffic injuries
and fatalities
by driving
safely and
responsibly,
and will
carefully
manage risk as
we scale our
operations.
Waymo's safety
methodologies,
which draw on
well
established
engineering
processes and
address new
safety
challenges
specific to
Automated
Vehicle
technology,
provide a firm
foundation for
safe
deployment of
our Level 4
ADS, which we
also refer to
as the Waymo
Driver.
Waymo's
determination
of its
readiness to
deploy its AVs
safely in
different
settings rests
on that firm
foundation and
on a thorough
analysis of
risks specific
to a
particular
Operational
Design Domain
)...." Read
more Hmmmm... The process. Must
read! Alain
M. Schwall, Oct. 30, "Waymo's mission to reduce traffic injuries and fatalities and improve mobility for all has led us to expand deployment of automated vehicles (AVs) on public roads without a human driver behind the wheel. As part of this process, Waymo is committed to providing the public with informative and relevant data regarding the demonstrated safety of Waymo's automated driving system (ADS), which we call the Waymo Driver...." Read more Hmmmm... The substance. Must read! ...
I had the priveledge of reviewing Waymo's most recent
Safety
Reports 1 , 2 (above)
In the past, safety reports by the AV community have
largely been a
response to
NHTSA'¢s Voluntary
Safety
Self-Assessments and
have, in my
opinion, been
largely public
relations
documents.
While
generally
descriptive
about the
testing
processes they
contain very
little, if
any,
substantive
information
about their safety
related experience
to-date
focused
exclusively on
driverless
operation.
Safe driverless operation is absolutely necessary for
AVs to evolve
from extremely
expensive
chauffeured
rides to
affordable
mobility
available to
essentially
anyone
throughout an
Operational
Design Domain
(ODD).
Affordability
requires that
the mobility
be delivered
without a
driver or
attendant
on-board the
vehicle. Only
passengers.
The decision to remove the driver/attendant rests in
part on the
shoulders of
public safety
regulators who
need to allow
such
operation, but
more
importantly,
on the
shoulders of
the real
decision
makers at the
AV company.
In the end, it
is those AV
company
decision
makers who
will be held
fully
responsible
for any lapse
in the safety
of the
driverless
operation.
These decision
makers are
inside the AV
companies and
are, of
course, privy
to all the
details and
substance
about their
own safety
related
driverless
operation,
which, in the
past, has not
been shared in
their
Voluntary
Safety
Self-assessments.
My impression is that these just released Waymo Safety
Reports
contain the
substantive
information
that clearly
depicts
Waymo's
safety-related
driverless
operational
experience.
To me, they
read like
internal
documents
meant to guide
and inform
internal
decision
makers to
objectively
decide if a
sufficiently
safe
operational
experience has
been achieved
in order to
vote to fully
accept the
safety
responsibility
of driverless
operation in
their
Operational
Design
Domain.
Given the information that is contained in these
documents, it
does not
surprise me
that Waymo
decision
makers have
decided to
proceed with
driverless
operation in
the Phoenix
Operational
Design Domain.
Had I had the
responsibility
of being one
of the
decision
makers
reviewing
these
documents, I
would have
also voted
yes.
Alain
J. Davis,
Oct 20,
"Launching a
self-driving
service is
complex. Many
different
pieces need to
come together
to create a
trusted and
scalable
self-driving
service that
provides value
to customers
and the cities
they operate
in. At Ford,
we are taking
a thoughtful
approach to
how we bring
together all
these pieces
to help shape
the future of
self-driving
vehicles. One
important part
of this
service is the
vehicle, which
will allow us
to stand up
our
self-driving
business.
Meet the
Fourth
Generation
Self-Driving
Test Vehicle:
Beginning to
roll out this
month, Ford
and Argo's
fourth-generation self-driving test vehicles are built on the Escape
Hybrid
platform and
feature the
latest
advancements
in sensing and
computing
technology.
The Escape
Hybrid is also
the
architecture
and platform
we have chosen
to use to
bring our
autonomous
vehicle
service
online....." Read more Hmmmm.... See
video.
Imprssive.
Listen/watch
SmartDrivingCars PodCast / ZoomCast with John Rich. CNBC's
take as
well as THe
Detroit News.
Alain
J.
Szczesny, Oct
7, "Ford Motor
Co's push to
broaden its
self-driving
vehicle
technology
portfolio, led
to it taking a
stake in a
Silicon Valley
company
developing
lidar systems
needed to help
guide
autonomous
vehicles.
The automaker
revealed it
owns a 7.6%
stake, or
13.06 million
shares, in
Velodyne
Lidar,
according to a
report filed
with the
Securities
Exchange
Commission.
With the
shares trading
at $17.40 per
share, the
stake is worth
approximately
$227.2
million. Ford
filed the
report to
remain
compliant with
the SEC...." Read more Hmmmm.... Interesting, but even
more
interesting is
the
SmartDrivingCarsPodCast / ZoomCast with John Rich. Alain
Staff,
Oct. 2020 "On
this page you
will find the
gradings of
cars tested by
Euro NCAP on
automated
driving
technologies.
For its 2020
assessment of
Highway Assist
systems, Euro
NCAP has
developed
dedicated test
and assessment
protocols,
divided into
two main
areas:
Assistance
Competence,
based on the
balance
between Driver
Engagement and
Vehicle
Assistance,
and Safety
Backup...." Read
more Hmmmm....Look carefully at each
component of
the rating
system. NCAP
has chosen one
algorithmic
way of "adding
apples and
oranges" to
get their
rating.
Unfortunately
they don't
divulge the
secret
formula. To
me, it doesn't
seem to be
sufficiently
iweighted on
what I
consider to be
the most
important
element...
"Collision
Avoidance".
If the system
doesn't do
that well,
then why
bother being
good at
Consumer
Information
(unless that
information
says clearly
that the
system doesn't
work well".
If NCAP itself did a good job of
Consumer
Information
then it would
divulge its
algorithm and
allow the
consumer to
edit its
weights to
trade-off what
the consumer
believes is
more or less
important.
A. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSight is standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573 Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
May
24, "About
9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..." Read
more Hmmmm.... Uber must believe
that its
systems are
better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..." (=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB: Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle and
be explicit
about the
expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"? Why did
it change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object.
In the tests
that Uber has
done, how
often has the
system
mis-classified
an object as a"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not
enabled while
the vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating " "erratic vehicle behavior". This is fundamentally BAD design. If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator is
relied on to
intervene and
take action. " Wow!
If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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