9.22 - Into Focus
June 7, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;">22nd edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Self-Driving Cars Could Be Decades Away, No Matter What Elon Musk Said
C. Mims, June 5, "..." Read more
Hmmmm... Not to be defensive, but I will be...
"In 2015, Elon Musk said self-driving cars that could drive "anywhere" would be here within two or three years." ... According to my definition, from day-one (>9 years ago), of my 3 (very) different types of SmartDrivingCars:
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Safe-driving Cars (Automation of Collision Avoidance on cars that we drive all the time. Societal benefit is improved Safety),
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Self-Driving Cars (Automation of Steering and Braking functions some of the time, in some places, but always requiring driver supervision. Societal benefit is Comfort & Convenience (and NOT any substantive Safety improvements), and
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Driverless Cars able to go from some origins to some destinations at some times without a driver or attendant on board. Societal benefit is delivering affordable high-quality mobility for almost anyone (and some/many things), from those origin-destination-time combinations. (period! Again, safety is a floor, not a substantive value proposition.)
Elon delivers, every day, "self-driving Tesla" with his autoPilot and FSD features. They deliver very good "Comfort & Convenience" to Tesla owners as long as the driver continues to do their part... always supervise the Tesla's automation. Cadillac also does it with its SuperCruise, Subaru with its EyeSight, Mercedes with its 997 package, and ...
Automakers, Mad Men and modern day commercials seem to make it a habit to oversell and over promise. I admit, Elon may well be at the asymptotic limit of that distribution, but everyone knows that he's way out there. We consider him entertainment, just as we consider all the money we loose on Fan Duel and in Vegas to be an entertainment expense. Caveat emptor
In 2016, Lyft CEO John Zimmer predicted they would "all but end" car ownership by 2025.
... Hopefully by then, that thought will be in at least some minds. Putting some blemish on what the Mad Men created as an absolute human desire would be a substantial achievement....
In 2018, Waymo CEO John Krafcik warned autonomous robocars would take longer than expected.
... Nothing wrong here...
In 2021, some experts aren't sure when, if ever, individuals will be able to purchase steering-wheel-free cars that drive themselves off the lot...."
... From the beginning and continue today I argue that there is no market in the personal ownership of Driverless Cars. Why own it??? I can't even drive it!!! Just to sit in my driveway??? I'm going to make it a business??? I'll be the smallest businessman in the world, bearing on my shoulders the highest form of personal responsibility, the life & safety of my customer. NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!!
Also... please, not everyone promised anything. And I haven't even mentioned Steve Schladover who has been stalwart in his efforts to advance this technology in a realistic context.
The Society of Automotive Engineers had, and continue to have, an opportunity to bring realism to this community by, at the very least, simply dropping any reference to anything called "Level 5". If SAE wishes to be humble and brave, they can also apologize for even suggesting that Level 5's "everywhere" could ever exist within the lifetimes of any current or soon to be member of SAE. By creating the category, SAE baited the Mad Men, Sunday Supplementers and Click-Bait folks into fantasizing something envisioned by a reputable, serious organization.
SAE, please edit your "Levels literature" by "whiting out" all reference to "Level 5" or adding after any Level 5 "NA". While you're at it, do it also for "Level 3" because that's also a non-starter. Alain
SmartDrivingCars
Pod-Cast Episode 217, Zoom-Cast Episode 217
w/Christorpher Mims, Columnist, Wall Street Journal
F. Fishkin, June 7 , "Are self-driving cars still decades ahead? Wall Street Jopurnal columnist and author Christopher Mims joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the progress and roadblocks. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, the dramatic rise in road deaths during Covid and more. "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
Why AI is Harder Than We Think
M. Mitchell, "... Despite attempts to redefine "full self-driving" into existence [7], none of these predictions has come true. It's worth quoting AI expert Drew McDermott on what can happen when over-optimism about AI systems—in particular, self-driving cars—turns out to be wrong:
Perhaps expectations are too high, and... this will eventually result in disaster. [S]uppose that five years from now [funding] collapses miserably as autonomous vehicles fail to roll. Every startup company fails. And there's a big backlash so that you can't get money for anythinconnectedwith AI. Everybody hurriedly changes the names of their research projects to something else. This condition [is] called the "AI Winter" [8].
What's most notable is that McDermott's warning is from 1984, when, like today, the field of AI was awash with confident optimism about the near future of machine intelligence...." Read more
Hmmmm... This is an excellent read. However, the problem is in terminology again. Why call and automated driver, AI? It really doesn't take much intelligence to follow a route from where you are to where you are going and not crash. Ants do it to get food and bring it back to the ant hill. Flees fly around my office without crashing into my walls. It is a lot like "rocket science", but what it needs to do is let the practical rocket scientists address the problem at hand which is: bringing affordable mobility to folks who can really use it rather than making a get-rich-quick toy.
So far, the investment community has sloshed.. gained and lost ... among itself with minimal societal investment from Local, State, Federal or Benevolent entities. It has all been among investors. Society should not be concerned that, to date, this sector has delivered essentially zero societal value. All of the net loss is sitting on balance sheets of the investment community. At some point, they'll have a margin call and sweep the net losses under some rug (or reorganize under some bankruptcy law) . Then we can all start again, wiped clean of those sunk investments. Hopefully we'll have a more modest and benevolent initiative focused on affordability and mobility to create a viable on-going business serving those whose lives can really be improved by this consumer product, rather than focused on getting rich flipping from one investor to another. Alain
Autonomous vehicle startup Aurora in final talks to merge with Reid Hoffman's newest SPAC
" K. Korosec, June 4, "Autonomous vehicle startup Aurora is close to finalizing a deal to merge with Reinvent Technology Partners Y, the newest special purpose acquisition company launched by LinkedIn co-founder and investor Reid Hoffman, Zynga founder Mark Pincus and managing partner Michael Thompson, according to several sources familiar with the talks.
One of the sticking points is the targeted valuation, which had been as high as $20 billion. It is now closer to $12 billion and the deal is expected to be announced as early as next week, said multiple sources who have asked not to be identified because they're not authorized to discuss the deal. Aurora declined to comment. Reinvent also declined to comment......" Read more
Hmmmm...Very interesting. Congratulations Chris. You deserve it. All the best. Alain
Man killed after car hits horse-drawn farming implement in Wayne County; drunk driving suspected
WKYC Staff, June 5, "... he was hit from behind by an Acura RDX..." Read more
Hmmmm... First of all my sincere condolences go out to the family and loved ones of Eli A. Miller of Big Prairie.
- Why didn't the Acura RDX's Automated Emergency Braking System not stop the Acura RDX from hitting Eli A. Miller of Big Prairie? Maybe if Acura is found liable in this most tragic situation they'll finally be motivated to get their AEB Systems to work reliably. 3. To be clear.. we as a society should have zero expectation that any of us, in any of our lifetimes, will be able to affordably buy and personally own a car that will be able to safely drive us from our watering hole to our home. Period! So don't drink and ever even think, or fantasize, that you'll be able to safely drive home or have some AI gizmo get you home safely. Alain
The pandemic was the bloodiest year for driving in over a decade
A. Hawkins, June 4, "Road deaths jumped 7.2 percent in 2020 from the year before, hitting a 13-year high, even though people weren't driving as much, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). But while NHTSA's numbers paint a grim picture, they offer only a glimpse at what's shaping up to be a historically bloody year of driving.
Overall, 38,680 people died in car crashes in 2020, the highest number since 2007. But it's worse than it sounds, since the number of miles driven in the US dropped by 13 percent. That means every mile someone drove last year was more dangerous than it was the year before. ." Read more
Hmmmm... We knew this was coming and it may well be even worse now. From my small vantage point, people seem to be driving faster and crazier. It is bad out there. Technology better hurry up and help keep us from misbehaving so badly while driving. Alain
SpaceX launches Dragon cargo ship to space station, nails booster landing
Space.com, June 3, "A brand new SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched the Commercial Resupply Services-22 mission (CRS-22) from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) at Kennedy Space Center, Florida on June 3, 2021." Read more
Hmmmm... Watch from 6 minutes into the video to see "best ever" views of the landing. New booster must have better live com system. On June 5th, SpaceX had its 125th successful launch and 87th successful recovery of a launch stage. Impressive!. Nice progress since the 1st launch of Falcon 9 on June 4, 11 years ago to the day. That's an average of 1 launch per month, since the start, with the rate now. With more than 17 launches so far this year, SpaceX is close to a launch per week now. And with no mention of any "AI". Alain
Jeff Bezos is going to space on first crewed flight of rocket
J. Watties, June 7, "Jeff Bezos will be flying to space on the first crewed flight of the New Shepard, the rocket ship made by his space company, Blue Origin. The flight is scheduled for July 20th, just 15 days after he is set to resign as CEO of Amazon.
Blue Origin said Bezos' younger brother, Mark Bezos, will also join the flight. "Ever since I was five years old, I've dreamed of traveling to space," Bezos, 57, said in a Monday morning Instagram post. "On July 20th, I will take that journey with my brother. The greatest adventure, with my best friend."..." Read more
Hmmmm... I want to go too!! Please! 😁 Alan
Cruise can now give passengers rides in driverlee cars in California
" K. Korosec, June 4, "Cruise, the autonomous vehicle subsidiary of GM that also has backing from SoftBank Vision Fund, Microsoft and Honda, has secured a permit that will allow the company to shuttle passengers in its test vehicles without a human safety operator behind the wheel.
The permit, issued by the California Public Utilities Commission as part of its driverless pilot program, is one of several regulatory requirements autonomous vehicle companies must meet before they can deploy commercially. This permit is important — and Cruise is the first to land this particular one — but it does not allow the company to charge passengers for any rides in test AVs......." Read more
Hmmmm... Good that they can, but when will they be comfortable enough to actually do it without a driver or attendant in the car? Alain
Merlin Labs wants to fill the sky with pilotless planes carrying cargo and passengers
A. Hawkins, JMay 26, "Rutonomous flight startup Merlin Labs is coming out of stealth mode to announce that it's raised $25 million in funding from Google Ventures and First Round Capital. The company has also struck a deal with aviation services contractor Dynamic Aviation to begin putting its pilotless plane technology into commercial operation.
The two announcements are the first steps toward Merlin Labs' larger goal of filling the sky with pilotless planes carrying cargo and passengers. As part of its deal with Dynamic, the startup will supply its autonomous flight technology to 55 of the contractor's King Air aircraft. Merlin is already conducting test flights with the first King Air plane outside its dedicated flight facility at the Mojave Air and Space Port. Merlin Labs is co-located in Boston; Los Angeles; Denver; and Auckland, New Zealand.. ." Read more
Hmmmm... Seems like a real opportunity .. to/from the many small airports... Only problem is aerodynamic drag... goes up with velocity cubed! Energy costs are a non-trivial floor on affordability. Alain
Autonomous Vehicles
C. Wilson, Jn 14, "... Autonomous Vehicles 101
An autonomous vehicle drives itself by using a combination of onboard technologies to measure the distance of the car from various objects, including pedestrians, bicyclists and other cars. GPS, supplemented with highly detailed up-to-date digital maps, locates vehicles and indicates which has the right of way. Communications among AVs, as well as between AVs and roadway infrastructure, determine the location and intention of other vehicles, the condition of the roadway, and the status of traffic signals. Cooperative automated driving, in which multiple (or even all) vehicles are effectively plugged into a local network, has the potential to smooth traffic flow, improve travel time and its reliability, and virtually eliminate accidents along with loss of life and damage to property...." Read more
Hmmmm... Recommended reading. Alain
More On....
See
(confidential) from (5/15/21). Then Re-see:
Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Posner'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines" . See slides, See video
Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain
0, 0);">Annual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.
Making Driverless Happen – The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April 18, ""It's time to hit the start button," is Fred Fishkin's succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times' Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen – Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to "the Trentons of the World."
Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,....." Read more
Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle's Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
15th Session Making it Happen - Part One: Elected Officials' Role in Creating a Welcoming Environment in the Trentons of this World
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
Michael Sena's Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021"Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the "Trentons" of this World"
Orf467F20_FinalReport "Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System" Kornhauser & He, March 2021 "AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative"
C'mon Man!(These folks didn't get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
The 2021 TRB Annual
Automated Road Transportation Symposium
Virtual on July 12-15, 2021
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Fall 2021 Live in Person To be Announced
Georgia, serif;">
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean's AV Research Group at U of Texas
and
The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, "Recordings from the conference:
Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: (Cybersecurity): https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY
Session 3: (Automated Driving Systems): https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc
Session 4: (Communications for ADS) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso
Hmmmm... Russ, thank you for sharing! Alain
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 216, Zoom-Cast Episode 216 w/Michael Sena, editor The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 28 , "The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming Into Focus. That's on top in the June edition of The Dispatcher. From Sweden, publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus better batteries, May Mobility, Tesla and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 215, Zoom-Cast Episode 215 w/Cade Metz, Correspondent, NY Times & Ken Pyle, editor, Viodi.com
F. Fishkin, May 27 , "The Costly Pursuit of Self Driving Cars Continues On and On and On. That's the headline of a NY Times story this week. The reporter, Cade Metz, also the author of a new book on artificial intelligence, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Ken Pyle of Viodi View.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 214, Zoom-Cast Episode 214
F. Fishkin, May 23 , "An interview with the chief engineer behind Ford's F150 Lightning EV truck...Waymo shares rider stories and the AFL-CIO tells Congress autonomous vehicles should be required to have human operators. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America's Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , "The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America's Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM,
TuSimple and
more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too. "..
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America's Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , "The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America's Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM,
TuSimple and
more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too.. https://youtu.be/Z6NBRrtTDnI "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212 w/Ken Pyle
F. Fishkin, May 8 , "Where does Waymo go from here? Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles? Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211 w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 1 , "There's plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense...and what doesn't. Plus #Tesla, #Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. ..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210 w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron'23
F. Fishkin, April 26 , "Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from
Elon Musk's
The Boring Company. Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton's Alain .."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209 w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.
F. Fishkin, April , "The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208 w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo
F. Fishkin, April 18, "What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo...some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207 w/Selika Josiah Talbott
F. Fishkin, April 10 , "When a driverless vehicle crashes...what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206 w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
F. Fishkin, April 2, "When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles? How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome? Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205 w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher. President, MLSena Consulting
F. Fishkin, March 26, "Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities. So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more...on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, ".With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker's new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table...and a look at the future of auto insurance.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser
F. Fishkin, March 13, ".GM's move to transform auto insurance through OnStar Insurance: Is it a win, win for all? Is adaptive cruise control prompting some drivers to speed? And what does Tesla really mean by "full self driving"? Just some of the questions tackled in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202, Zoom-Cast Episode 202 President & CEO, RoadDB
F. Fishkin, March 3, "When will we be able to purchase cars that can largely drive themselves? It may not be long...but don't expect to vacate the driver's seat. That's the view of entrepreneur, tech pioneer and RoadDB CEO Russ Shields. He takes an in depth look at where we are and where we're headed with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201, Zoom-Cast Episode 201 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Feb. 26, "Smarter cars need smarter assembly...and location matters. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at that, politics, climate and carmakers...plus Tesla, Velodyne, Foxconn and more.." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200, Zoom-Cast Episode 200 w/Edwin Olsen, CEO, May Mobility
F. Fishkin, Feb. 22, "How May Mobility is building confidence in autonomous transportation and creating a road map for growth through the pandemic and beyond. CEO and co-founder Edwin Olson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more."
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
May 29, 2021
The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming into Focus M. Sena, June 2021, "...Mobility-as-a-service would provide the business model to tie everything together, perhaps as an extension of your phone/broadband subscription. Private car ownership would soon be a relic of a bygone age.
This is an interesting narrative, but is not a correct one. Even before COVID-19 changed how people have been living outside of China since Friday, the 13th of March 2020, the picture of everything happening in high density cities was a rumor that companies like WEWORK spread to build their houses of cards. ...
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ..
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ... What cities are doing today all over the world is neither providing an adequate service to their citizens nor using the money allocated for transport in a cost-effective way...
Bite the bullet and get private cars off the big city streets
The reasons that people who live in cities began to buy cars was that they needed them to get to their jobs, the ones that began moving out of the cities in the '60s to 'campuses' where there were no transit links. Then they needed them to drop off their children to day care centers since both parents worked. Then they needed them to drop off their older children...
As I said, it is not buses that will meet the need. Neither is it roads filled with taxis. There are taxis offering rides in Trenton and Scranton, but they are not replacing buses because they are too expensive and are often unavailable when demand for them is highest. The Uber/Lyft model can be better at meeting demand, but they are still too costly..."
Hmmmm... Enjoy the whole issue. It is enormously well written! Also listen/watch the SDC Pod/Zoom Cast 216- below with Michael. Alain
The Costly Pursuit of Self-Driving Cars Continues On. And On. And On. C. Metz, May 24, "... So what went wrong? Some researchers would say nothing — that's how science works. You can't entirely predict what will happen in an experiment. ... It's not an experiment if you can predict the outcome. Why bother doing it???
More importantly, Mother Nature is involved and you don't know what she is going to throw at you. Which is why simulations are not the complete answer... They'll only regurgitate what you told them to do (which is somewhat useful because they implicate together the things that you thought you knew, giving you new insights.). The challenge is, She's not involved in the simulation but She is every time you do it... But that's life and that's what makes it exiting and worth living.... The self-driving car project just happened to be one of the most hyped technology experiments of this century, occurring on streets all over the country and run by some of its highest-profile companies....
Self-driving tech is not yet nimble enough to reliably handle the variety of situations human drivers encounter each day. It can usually handle suburban Phoenix, but it can't duplicate the human chutzpah needed for merging into the Lincoln Tunnel in New York or dashing for an offramp on Highway 101 in Los Angele ... True! But getting it to work in the Nevada desert and then Pheonix is an enormous accomplishment. Frank didn't just roll out of the womb and make it in New York. He also went through "..the blues..." where he could actually sing and be appreciated in the "..small towns..." before he made it in NYC. It took GM about '12 seconds' to realize that the required human chutzpah was way to much to get started and they were outathere.
"If you look at almost every industry that is trying to solve really, really difficult technical challenges, the folks that tend to be involved are a little bit crazy and little bit optimistic," he said. "You need to have that optimism to get up every day and bang your head against the wall to try to solve a problem that has never been solved, and it's not guaranteed that it ever will be solved." ... Absolutely true. By definition! (I also like to say that you need to be fundamentally stupid; else, you would have known how hard it was going to be and you would have just played golf or video games in your parent's basement...)
"These cars will be able to operate on a limited set of streets under a limited set of weather conditions at certain speeds," said Jody Kelman, an executive at Lyft. "We will very safely be able to deploy these cars, but they won't be able to go that many places." ... Yup!! There is absolutely nothing bad about that. Go someplace else. It doesn't need to be much tougher that "Chandler". It doesn't really need to be any "bigger" than "Chandler".
Waymo needs what Chandler doesn't have.. Customers ... Definition: folks whose quality-of-life can be substantially improved by what Waymo's Technology can readily deliver today. )
That's the market side of this initiative that Silicon Valley seems to have forgotten. Cool Technology doesn't happen, just because it is Technology. Technology happens because it is Cool. Cool is the value proposition, not Technology: else we'd have Segways and people wearing GoogleGlass all over the place.
Assisted Driving (what I call Self-drivingCars, or, sorry, SAE Level 1 and Level 2, or Tesla AutoPilot) are Cool (That technology delivers Comfort and Convenience to those that can afford and wish to buy cars). The buyer/customer just relies, for the most part, that engineers are making sure that the Technology works. Customers demand that the Technology adds to what they already enjoy (Cool). Their attention span is really short. The "lipstick" wears off quickly.
For Driverless... not so much Cool in Chandler. Maybe as a fling, or a tale, but actually, the negatives, largely outweigh the positives, think GoogleGlass. Few move or stay in Chandler unless you have a car (~70% Households have 2 or more cars). 'everyone' has their own car. So while the Waymo technology might work in Chandler, it doesn't have enough Waymophiles (customers for whom Waymo substantially improves what they already have for themselves) to make it a Go.
However, take "Trenton". 70 % of the households have one or zero cars. Many more Trentonians have the opportunity to appreciate the incremental value that Waymo will bring to their lives. They will more easily become Waymophiles if Waymo delivers in Trenton what Waymo has well demonstrated the "Cool" that it can deliver in Chandler. Even if Waymo shuts down until the few roads that it uses are plowed the few times it snows in Trenton. Trenton is Waymos's (Ford/Argo & GM/Cruise as well) "New York".
In short... While Chandler is an ideal place for Waymo to start getting its Technology working, Trenton is a great place for them to deliver societal value, which is supposed to be the fundamental mission of these Google "X.Projects" ... ..."
...X's primary output is breakthrough technologies that have the potential to transform people's lives and become large, sustainable businesses."
It is time that Waymo begins to take what they've accomplished and actually begin to deliver primary output. "Read more
Hmmmm... Excellent. Comments in line above. Also Listen/Watch PodCast above. Alain
May 22, 2021
Why I Ride with Waymo: Mike Waymo One, May 13, "... I started taking it to work, and after crunching the numbers for gas, maintenance, insurance, upkeep, and owning a depreciating investment, it was pretty much a no-brainer that we really didn't need two cars. I sold off my car and made Waymo my choice for commuting to and from work and for trips my wife and I need to take when the other is using our car..." Read more.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the "easiest" ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
May 15, 2021
Autonomous Vehicles: A Framework for Deployment and Safety R. Diamond, May 13, "Join SAFE for an event focused on the importance of autonomous vehicles to our national and economic security and outlining pathways for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles.
The event will feature remarks from Dr. Steve Cliff, Acting Administrator of NHTSA, a discussion between industry leaders, and the release of a report, "A Regulatory Framework for AV Safety," by O. Kevin Vincent, Associate General Counsel, Regulatory at Lucid...." Read more
Hmmmm... A must watch, complemented by the Vincent report and our latest PodCast below. Alain
May 8, 2021 Why has't Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here's my theory
T. Lee, May 7, "Suburban ride-hailing is a lousy business to be in.
Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver's seat.
And then... nothing. Seven months later, Waymo has neither expanded the footprint of the Phoenix service nor has it announced a timeline for launching in a second city.
It's as if Steve Jobs had unveiled the iPhone, shipped a few thousand phones to an Apple Store in Phoenix, and then didn't ship any more for months—and wouldn't explain why.
Last Friday, two Waymo employees participated in an "ask me anything" thread on the SelfDrivingCars subreddit, a watering hole for self-driving industry insiders. Questions about expansion plans dominated the conversation.
"How are you going to scale?" one redditor asked. "What are the impediments to service expansion at this time?"
The Waymonauts responded with maddening generalities.
"We feel the same urgency to scale quickly that others do, but a ton of work goes into doing it safely," wrote Waymo's Sam Kansara." Read more
Hmmmm... Not at all surprising. Can you imagine trying to be better than one's own Land Rover or Porsche in car country. That is a heavy lift. Making it heavier is the focus on today's most entitled yuppies. That's as bad as the original focus of driverless cars on 1%ers. Waymos are pure and simple mobility machines to get you from/to places horizontally, just as elevators do vertically ... just get you up to the "8th floor". Why are elevators so successful at what they do?... Second best is the stairwell! They win all the time, hands down.
In Chandler, the "stairwell" is your car parked in your garage. You don't even have to go outside in all that heat. Waymo's got to be really good to beat that! Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances "slim-to-none". Not that the car in the garage doesn't have an enormous amount of "excess baggage". Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it. When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car. Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live. That's a challenging market place for Waymo. It's worse than Bing v Google
A better place for Waymo ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service. The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car. Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don't have access to one. Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach "the eighth floor"; which, once they can using Waymo, would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.
Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that's arguably the last place for Waymo to go. However, the census identifies many communities and "inner suburbs" that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household. For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice. Numerous Trenton residents would readily perceive Waymo as the "Google" in their trip mode-choice.
Another note... trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool's gambit. Since Waymos don't misbehave, it is "easy" to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about. Alain
Link to previous SDC eLetters
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
alaink@princeton.edu
609-258-4657 (o)
609-980-1427 (c)