9.23 - JB Hunt
June 16, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;">23rd edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Waymo teams up with trucker JB Hunt on autonomous freight hauling in Texas
A. Hawkins, June 10, "Waymo's autonomous trucking unit got a boost with the announcement that it would be teaming up with JB Hunt Transport Services, a 56-year-old company based in Arkansas. The two companies will work collaboratively on a pilot project to evaluate the use of Waymo's autonomous technology to move freight.
The test will take place in Texas, with Waymo's Class 8 autonomous truck hauling goods along Interstate 45 between facilities in Houston and Fort Worth for one of JB Hunt's customers. The trucks will operate autonomously but will be supervised by two Waymo employees, a commercially licensed driver and a software engineer, from the cab of the vehicle. If everything goes smoothly, Waymo and JB Hunt could decide to work together on more freight hauls in the future.. ." Read more
Hmmmm... Nice. We also know that the sociology challenges and the liability risks require human supervision. Hopefully all will work out so that the two Waymo employees can magically disappear in a short time.
I have come to realize that this front-end labor investment will be needed to successfully enter any new Driverless Operational Design Domain. These expenses are, in reality, infrastructure expenses: they are front end temporary expenses incurred to certify the viability and safety of the long-run low-cost driverless operation. For Trenton, I see this as requiring 2.5 FTEs per vehicle for two years. A small price to pay to successfully launch affordable mobility to all. Alain
SmartDrivingCars
Pod-Cast Episode 218, Zoom-Cast Episode 218 w/Xinfeng Le, Waymo Product Manager
F. Fishkin, June 10 , "Have questions about Waymo's partnership with JB Hunt to test autonomous trucks in Texas? So do we…and Waymo's Product Manager, Xinfeng Le joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to provide answers. Plus.. Waymo raises 2 and a half billion dollars, MacKenzie Scott gives away billions, start-up Waabi comes out of stealth, Argo AI plans an IPO and more. "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
MacKenzie Scott Gives Away Another $2.74 Billion Even as Her Wealth Grows
N. Kulish, June 15, "MacKenzie Scott promised she would give her fortune away "until the safe is empty." That has proved to be harder than expected.
Ms. Scott made that pledge in 2019, after her divorce from Jeff Bezos. At the time, her portion of the settlement, some 4 percent of Amazon shares, was valued at around $36 billion.
Thanks to the soaring value of that stock, Ms. Scott is accumulating wealth faster than she can give it away. Though she has donated more than $8 billion over the past 11 months, primarily through direct gifts to nonprofits, today she is richer than ever, worth some $60 billion, according to Forbes.
In 2020, a year of incredible need, Ms. Scott gave away nearly $6 billion to 500 organizations. Now, for the third time in under a year, Ms. Scott has announced a new round of grants, worth a combined $2.74 billion, demonstrating that her dedication to rapidly disbursing her fortune has not abated. ... How fantastic is that! Be sure to read her post...https://mackenzie-scott.medium.com/seeding-by-ceding-ea6de642bf
" ... said Maribel Morey, founding executive director of the Miami Institute for the Social Sciences. "Much as a judge has to explain their logic, or a senator has to answer to their constituents, a philanthropist owes it to the public to explain how and why they came to their decisions." ... What??? Did the NYT include this comment in the interest of "balanced Journalism"??? C'Mon NYT, how can you criticize what MacKensie is doing??? ...
"...In a break from the way many foundations operate, Ms. Scott said her gifts were not earmarked for specific programs. "Because we believe that teams with experience on the front lines of challenges will know best how to put the money to good use, we encouraged them to spend it however they choose," she said... ...Absolutely FANTASTIC!!!
"... she had so far shown little interest in the think tanks and research institutes that often shape policy in Washington and statehouses around the country... "She just doesn't seem to be tuned in to that kind of stuff at all," Mr. Callahan said. "That reflects an incomplete understanding of how change happens in this country. Change happens from the bottom up, and also the top down."...
.. What??? What??? I beg to disagree. As if those in the "think tanks and research institutions" are anything more than part of the overhead that she is so elegantly disrupting in an industry (philanthropy) that may well be THE Smokestack of smokestack industries. Read more
Hmmmm... MacKensie may well end up being more transformative than Jeff in totally disrupting an insular industry. Alain
First Look TESLA VISION with NO Radar | 2021 Model Y
Dan M., May 27, "We take a First Look TESLA VISION with NO Radar on a 2021 Tesla Model Y. Software version 2021.4.15.11. " Watchmore
Hmmmm... @ 6:14 in, he talks about the non-detection of the vehicle in front of the vehicle directly in front of him. Radar could do that detection can identify the radar signals that pass under the vehicle in front of him, bounced off the pavement, reflected off the vehicle that can't be seen, bounce off the pavement and be recaptured by the radar unit. While this might be "neat" information to have in some obscure situation, its unreliability disqualifies it from it playing a role in the driving task and certainly doesn't provide sufficient benefit to require the continued inclusion of radar as a sensor.
@ 8:05 in, he approaches an overpass. I'm certain that the overpass is "seen" by the camera system. Part of the overpass is directly above in the lane ahead. Why isn't that overpass displayed on the road ahead and annotated with the detected clearance? Why is that "stationary object in the lane ahead" discarded from being displayed on the autoPilot monitor? What other objects are discarded from being displayed when the image processing system detects an object in the lane ahead? Seems like signs and traffic lights are similarly discarded from being displayed. How low do they need to be to not be discarded. What if it is a trailer sitting broadside across the lane ahead? What if it is a firetruck parked under the overpass? Are any of these detected objects passed to Tesla's collision avoidance system?
I agree that radar (and Lidar) are redundant to image processing. They aren't even nice-to-haves when the image processing system is designated as the go-to sensor in cases where there is a discrepancy. Alain
Alphabet's self-driving car company Waymo announces $2.5 billion investment round
L. Feiner, June 16, "Google sibling company Waymo announced Wednesday a $2.5 billion investment round, which will go toward advancing its autonomous driving technology and growing its team.
The funding round follows the departure of Waymo CEO John Krafcik in April and criticism that the company is moving slower than expected toward commercialization of its technology. Waymo and other self-driving companies have found adoption to be more difficult than expected. The company, for example, still largely relied on human safety drivers last summer...
Waymo says it eventually wants individuals to own and operate vehicles using its autonomous driving technology. The company said it's driven tens of millions of miles on public roads across 25 cities in the U.S. so far..." Read more
Hmmmm... Wow! That last sentence implies a real change in Waymo's business strategy, if it is true. Hard to believe, unless they are going to position it like Tesla's AutoPilot... can do a lot, but absolutely requires the driver's butt to be in the driver's seat and the driver's mind always focused on overseeing the Waymo driver. If this is true, then Waymo is throwing in the towel on Driverless and putting lipstick on it. Wow! Alain
Waabi launches to build a pathway to commercially viable, scalable autonomous driving
Press release, June 8, "Waabi, founded by AI pioneer and visionary Raquel Urtasun, today launched out of stealth to build the next generation of self-driving technology. Waabi's innovative approach unleashes the power of AI to "drive" safely in the real world, bringing the promise of self-driving closer to commercialization than ever before.
Waabi also announced today a $83.5 million (USD) Series A financing with backing from best-in-class investors across the technology, logistics and the Canadian innovation ecosystem. The round, which is among the largest Series A rounds ever raised in Canada, was led by Khosla Ventures with additional participation from Uber, Radical Ventures, 8VC, OMERS Ventures, BDC Capital's Women in Technology Venture Fund (WIT), Aurora Innovation Inc., AI luminaries Geoffrey Hinton, Fei-Fei Li, Pieter Abbeel, Sanja Fidler and others...." Read more
Hmmmm... Very interesting that Aurora Innovations, Inc. is one of the participants since it seemed to have had the opportunity to get all of Waabi's IP and people when it "acquired" Uber's ATG in December. Yet Aurora seems to be investing in the people that it passed on in December. Did Aurore also pass on Uber's ATV's IP that has now found its way in Waabi? Sure hope this doesn't end up being another Otto. Alain
U.S. push for self-driving cars faces union, lawyers opposition
D. Shepardson, June 16, "The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee on Wednesday again rejected attempts to lift regulations to allow for the deployment of thousands of autonomous vehicles as union groups and attorneys campaign against the legislative proposal.
The committee rebuffed the bid by Republican Senator John Thune to attach measures lifting regulations on autonomous vehicles to a $78 billion surface transportation bill after he sought last month to attach it in May to a bill on China tech policy....
Thune said that the "Teamsters and trial lawyers" are opposed to self-driving legislation and they "seem to own lock, stock and barrel the Democrats on this committee."...
The American Association for Justice, which represents plaintiffs lawyers said it "will continue to oppose any legislation that exempts the driverless car industry from basic safety standards, and allows auto and tech companies to avoid being held accountable through the use of forced arbitration clauses.... " Read more
Hmmmm... Nice to hear that lawyers oppose relaxation of basic safety standards that would cause them to become even richer. Alain
Beep Launches Yellowstone's First Autonomous Shuttles with Local Motors
Beep, June 10, "Beep – a provider of multi-passenger, electric, autonomous mobility solutions – today announced the launch of Yellowstone National Park's first-ever autonomous shuttle program, called T.E.D.D.Y. (The Electric Driverless Demonstration in Yellowstone), in partnership with Local Motors, a leader in the design and manufacturing of autonomous vehicles. The T.E.D.D.Y. project, an ode to Teddy Roosevelt, will enable the National Park Service to test the feasibility and sustainability of autonomous mobility and better plan for the future of transportation...." Read more
Hmmmm... Congratulations. Alain
Argo AI's CEO says IPO expected within next year
J. Lee, June 9, "Self-driving startup Argo AI, backed by Ford Motor Co (F.N) and Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE), expects to pursue a public listing within the next year, founder and CEO Bryan Salesky said on Wednesday.
"So we're actively fundraising and are going out this summer to raise a private round initially," Salesky said at The Information's Autonomous Vehicles Summit. "And then we're looking forward to an IPO within the next year."
"The raise this year will definitely provide capital that gives us plenty of runway and will help us continue to scale out," he said, adding that autonomous driving is a capital-intensive business..." Read more
Hmmmm... "Scale out"??? They haven't even achieved their 1st dollar of revenue. Today's challenge is getting started. Yo date, only Waymo has anything that barely begins to get started and that may well be on life support. Alain
Lordstown's electric pickup plans hit another snag as CEO and CFO resign
F. Lambert, June 14, "Lordstown Motors is again finding itself in hot water on the road to try to bring to market its ambitious electric pickup as both the CEO and CFO are leaving.
The company was founded out of a deal to take over GM's Lordstown factory just a few years ago, and it plans to bring an electric pickup truck, the Lordstown Endurance, to production this year.
We previously stated that the timeline was extremely ambitious due to the fact that the factory needs to be completely retooled, and Lordstown is trying to bring to market the first passenger vehicle with in-wheel hub motors, which is an untested technology in pickup trucks.
Lordstown went public through a SPAC deal last year and saw its valuation soar to up to $4 billion...." Read more
Hmmmm... Another Nikola? (which still closed @ $15.76 today) Alain
GM-backed Cruise secures $5 billion credit line as it prepares to launch self-driving robotaxis
M. Wayland, June 15," Cruise, a majority-owned subsidiary of General Motors, has secured a new $5 billion line of credit as it prepares for commercialization of its autonomous ride-hailing business.
The new credit, announced Tuesday, is being provided by GM's automotive financing arm to use for the purchase of Cruise's self-driving Origin shuttles, which GM is expected to begin producing at a factory in Detroit in early 2023. It brings Cruise's war chest to more than $10 billion, according to Cruise CEO Dan Ammann...." Read more
Hmmmm... Congratulations. GM already had a factory making Cruise's autonomous Bolt. Are the Origin shuttles going to be manufactured in the same plant? "
TuSimple's self-driving truck network expanding eastward via Texas
N. Carey, June 16," Self-driving truck technology company TuSimple Holdings Inc (TSP.O) said on Wednesday it will open a new Texas facility that will enable it to put trucks to work hauling freight on the roads of the southeastern U.S. states within six months.
The company, which outfits its trucks with self-driving technology, is opening a new terminal in Alliance, Texas, to serve the "Texas Triangle", an area that includes Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin, adding 3,000 miles to its network...." Read more
Hmmmm... Seems to me that TuSimple is becoming a Warehousing company using its own trucks to move freight between its facilities. At this point, having "self-driving" technology on its trucks helps the influx of investor capital while adding a sea of red to their balance sheet. Alain
How Software Is Eating the Car
R. Charette, June 7, "Predictions of lost global vehicle production caused by the ongoing semiconductor shortage continue to rise. In January, analysts forecast that 1.5 million fewer vehicles would be produced as a result of the shortage; by April that number had steadily climbed to more than 2.7 million units, and by May, to more than 4.1 million units.
The semiconductor shortage has underscored not only the fragility of the automotive supply chain, but placed an intense spotlight on the auto industry's reliance on the dozens of concealed computers embedded throughout vehicles today.
"No other industry is undergoing as rapid technological change as the auto industry," says Zoran Filipi, Chair of the Department of Automotive Engineering at Clemson University's International Center for Automotive Research. "This is driven by the need to address impending, evermore stringent CO2 and criteria emission regulations, while sustaining unprecedented rate of progress with development of automation and infotainment, and meeting the customer expectations regarding performance, comfort, and utility." ..." Read more
Hmmmm... A non-trivial problem. Complexity in the car may well be outstripping any "Moore's Law" productivity improvements. ..""... Once, software was a part of the car. Now, software determines the value of a car," notes Manfred Broy, emeritus professor of informatics at Technical University, Munich and a leading expert on software in automobiles. "The success of a car depends on its software much more than the mechanical side." Nearly all vehicle innovations by auto manufacturers, or original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) as they are called by industry insiders, are now tied to software, he says...." ..." An excellent read. Alain
PS I'm told by my Mercedes repair shop that my horn is "on" according to its MB S550 diagnostic system; yet, it doesn't make a noise when I hit the center of the steering wheel. I'm told they don't know why is doesn't blow, but for $1,200 they will try the cheapest possible fix by replacing electronic control unit. If that doesn't fix it they'll try the next more expensive fix. Why Mercedes make a horn so complicated?? I give up.
Autonomous vehicle startup Aurora in talks to merge with Reid Hoffman's SPAC -TechCrunch
Staff, June 4,"Self-driving car startup Aurora is nearing a deal to merge with blank-check firm Reinvent Technology Partners Y , which is backed by Silicon Valley heavyweights Reid Hoffman, Mark Pincus and Michael Thompson, TechCrunch reported on Friday....." Read more
Hmmmm... Congratulations, I guess. Alain
You may be paying more for Uber, but drivers aren't getting their cut of the fare hike
F. Siddiqui, June 10, "Uber passengers paying astronomical fares amid a labor shortage may think the extra money is going to their stressed and overworked drivers.
But drivers are not being compensated based on what customers pay. Instead, they are paid for their time and distance — with added, predetermined surge bonuses controlled by Uber...." Read more
Hmmmm... Unfortunately, the Uber/Lyft business model is fundamentally flawed. Affordability is achieved only through enslavement of the driver. There is no opportunity to achieve any economies of scale because output is fundamentally proportional to labor input. Uber/Lyft may well be among the most labor intensive industries. There is a reason why taxi cabs didn't dominate mobility in the 20th century. It is simply too labor intensive to be afforded (not completely obliterate any personal value attained by travel) except in the most dire circumstances or for folks for whom money was no problem or had someone else paying for it. No wonder the personal automobile became so popular... Justify the occasional expenses while experiencing freedom during each trip. It was a no-brainer. And still is ... until the intense labor charge can somehow be eliminated from each transaction. Alain
More On....
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Poser'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines" . See slides, See video
Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain
0, 0);">Annual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.
Making Driverless Happen – The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April 18, ""It's time to hit the start button," is Fred Fishkin's succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times' Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen – Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to "the Trentons of the World."
Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,....." Read more
Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle's Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
15th Session Making it Happen - Part One: Elected Officials' Role in Creating a Welcoming Environment in the Trentons of this World
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
Michael Sena's Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021"Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the "Trentons" of this World"
Orf467F20_FinalReport "Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System" Kornhauser & He, March 2021 "AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative"
C'mon Man!(These folks didn't get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
The 2021 TRB Annual
Automated Road Transportation Symposium
Virtual on July 12-15, 2021
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Fall 2021 Live in Person To be Announced
Georgia, serif;">
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean's AV Research Group at U of Texas
and
The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, "Recordings from the conference:
Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: (Cybersecurity): https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY
Session 3: (Automated Driving Systems): https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc
Session 4: (Communications for ADS) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso
Hmmmm... Russ, thank you for sharing! Alain
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 217, Zoom-Cast Episode 217 w/Christorpher Mims, Columnist, Wall Street Journal
F. Fishkin, June 7 , "Are self-driving cars still decades ahead? Wall Street Jopurnal columnist and author Christopher Mims joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the progress and roadblocks. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, the dramatic rise in road deaths during Covid and more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 216, Zoom-Cast Episode 216 w/Michael Sena, editor The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 28 , "The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming Into Focus. That's on top in the June edition of The Dispatcher. From Sweden, publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus better batteries, May Mobility, Tesla and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 215, Zoom-Cast Episode 215 w/Cade Metz, Correspondent, NY Times & Ken Pyle, editor, Viodi.com
F. Fishkin, May 27 , "The Costly Pursuit of Self Driving Cars Continues On and On and On. That's the headline of a NY Times story this week. The reporter, Cade Metz, also the author of a new book on artificial intelligence, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Ken Pyle of Viodi View.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 214, Zoom-Cast Episode 214
F. Fishkin, May 23 , "An interview with the chief engineer behind Ford's F150 Lightning EV truck...Waymo shares rider stories and the AFL-CIO tells Congress autonomous vehicles should be required to have human operators. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America's Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , "The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America's Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM,
TuSimple and
more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too. "..
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America's Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , "The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America's Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM,
TuSimple and
more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too.. https://youtu.be/Z6NBRrtTDnI "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212 w/Ken Pyle
F. Fishkin, May 8 , "Where does Waymo go from here? Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles? Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211 w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 1 , "There's plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense...and what doesn't. Plus #Tesla, #Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. ..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210 w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron'23
F. Fishkin, April 26 , "Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from
Elon Musk's
The Boring Company. Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton's Alain .."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209 w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.
F. Fishkin, April , "The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208 w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo
F. Fishkin, April 18, "What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo...some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207 w/Selika Josiah Talbott
F. Fishkin, April 10 , "When a driverless vehicle crashes...what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206 w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
F. Fishkin, April 2, "When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles? How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome? Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205 w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher. President, MLSena Consulting
F. Fishkin, March 26, "Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities. So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more...on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, ".With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker's new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table...and a look at the future of auto insurance.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser
F. Fishkin, March 13, ".GM's move to transform auto insurance through OnStar Insurance: Is it a win, win for all? Is adaptive cruise control prompting some drivers to speed? And what does Tesla really mean by "full self driving"? Just some of the questions tackled in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202, Zoom-Cast Episode 202 President & CEO, RoadDB
F. Fishkin, March 3, "When will we be able to purchase cars that can largely drive themselves? It may not be long...but don't expect to vacate the driver's seat. That's the view of entrepreneur, tech pioneer and RoadDB CEO Russ Shields. He takes an in depth look at where we are and where we're headed with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201, Zoom-Cast Episode 201 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Feb. 26, "Smarter cars need smarter assembly...and location matters. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at that, politics, climate and carmakers...plus Tesla, Velodyne, Foxconn and more.." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200, Zoom-Cast Episode 200 w/Edwin Olsen, CEO, May Mobility
F. Fishkin, Feb. 22, "How May Mobility is building confidence in autonomous transportation and creating a road map for growth through the pandemic and beyond. CEO and co-founder Edwin Olson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more."
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
Self-Driving Cars Could Be Decades Away, No Matter What Elon Musk Said
C. Mims, June 5, "..." Read more
Hmmmm... Not to be defensive, but I will be...
"In 2015, Elon Musk said self-driving cars that could drive "anywhere" would be here within two or three years." ... According to my definition, from day-one (>9 years ago), of my 3 (very) different types of SmartDrivingCars:
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Safe-driving Cars (Automation of Collision Avoidance on cars that we drive all the time. Societal benefit is improved Safety),
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Self-Driving Cars (Automation of Steering and Braking functions some of the time, in some places, but always requiring driver supervision. Societal benefit is Comfort & Convenience (and NOT any substantive Safety improvements), and
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Driverless Cars able to go from some origins to some destinations at some times without a driver or attendant on board. Societal benefit is delivering affordable high-quality mobility for almost anyone (and some/many things), from those origin-destination-time combinations. (period! Again, safety is a floor, not a substantive value proposition.)
Elon delivers, every day, "self-driving Tesla" with his autoPilot and FSD features. They deliver very good "Comfort & Convenience" to Tesla owners as long as the driver continues to do their part... always supervise the Tesla's automation. Cadillac also does it with its SuperCruise, Subaru with its EyeSight, Mercedes with its 997 package, and ...
Automakers, Mad Men and modern day commercials seem to make it a habit to oversell and over promise. I admit, Elon may well be at the asymptotic limit of that distribution, but everyone knows that he's way out there. We consider him entertainment, just as we consider all the money we loose on Fan Duel and in Vegas to be an entertainment expense. Caveat emptor
In 2016, Lyft CEO John Zimmer predicted they would "all but end" car ownership by 2025.
... Hopefully by then, that thought will be in at least some minds. Putting some blemish on what the Mad Men created as an absolute human desire would be a substantial achievement....
In 2018, Waymo CEO John Krafcik warned autonomous robocars would take longer than expected.
... Nothing wrong here...
In 2021, some experts aren't sure when, if ever, individuals will be able to purchase steering-wheel-free cars that drive themselves off the lot...."
... From the beginning and continue today I argue that there is no market in the personal ownership of Driverless Cars. Why own it??? I can't even drive it!!! Just to sit in my driveway??? I'm going to make it a business??? I'll be the smallest businessman in the world, bearing on my shoulders the highest form of personal responsibility, the life & safety of my customer. NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!!
Also... please, not everyone promised anything. And I haven't even mentioned Steve Schladover who has been stalwart in his efforts to advance this technology in a realistic context.
The Society of Automotive Engineers had, and continue to have, an opportunity to bring realism to this community by, at the very least, simply dropping any reference to anything called "Level 5". If SAE wishes to be humble and brave, they can also apologize for even suggesting that Level 5's "everywhere" could ever exist within the lifetimes of any current or soon to be member of SAE. By creating the category, SAE baited the Mad Men, Sunday Supplementers and Click-Bait folks into fantasizing something envisioned by a reputable, serious organization.
SAE, please edit your "Levels literature" by "whiting out" all reference to "Level 5" or adding after any Level 5 "NA". While you're at it, do it also for "Level 3" because that's also a non-starter. Alain May 29, 2021
The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming into Focus M. Sena, June 2021, "...Mobility-as-a-service would provide the business model to tie everything together, perhaps as an extension of your phone/broadband subscription. Private car ownership would soon be a relic of a bygone age.
This is an interesting narrative, but is not a correct one. Even before COVID-19 changed how people have been living outside of China since Friday, the 13th of March 2020, the picture of everything happening in high density cities was a rumor that companies like WEWORK spread to build their houses of cards. ...
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ..
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ... What cities are doing today all over the world is neither providing an adequate service to their citizens nor using the money allocated for transport in a cost-effective way...
Bite the bullet and get private cars off the big city streets
The reasons that people who live in cities began to buy cars was that they needed them to get to their jobs, the ones that began moving out of the cities in the '60s to 'campuses' where there were no transit links. Then they needed them to drop off their children to day care centers since both parents worked. Then they needed them to drop off their older children...
As I said, it is not buses that will meet the need. Neither is it roads filled with taxis. There are taxis offering rides in Trenton and Scranton, but they are not replacing buses because they are too expensive and are often unavailable when demand for them is highest. The Uber/Lyft model can be better at meeting demand, but they are still too costly..."
Hmmmm... Enjoy the whole issue. It is enormously well written! Also listen/watch the SDC Pod/Zoom Cast 216- below with Michael. Alain
The Costly Pursuit of Self-Driving Cars Continues On. And On. And On. C. Metz, May 24, "... So what went wrong? Some researchers would say nothing — that's how science works. You can't entirely predict what will happen in an experiment. ... It's not an experiment if you can predict the outcome. Why bother doing it???
More importantly, Mother Nature is involved and you don't know what she is going to throw at you. Which is why simulations are not the complete answer... They'll only regurgitate what you told them to do (which is somewhat useful because they implicate together the things that you thought you knew, giving you new insights.). The challenge is, She's not involved in the simulation but She is every time you do it... But that's life and that's what makes it exiting and worth living.... The self-driving car project just happened to be one of the most hyped technology experiments of this century, occurring on streets all over the country and run by some of its highest-profile companies....
Self-driving tech is not yet nimble enough to reliably handle the variety of situations human drivers encounter each day. It can usually handle suburban Phoenix, but it can't duplicate the human chutzpah needed for merging into the Lincoln Tunnel in New York or dashing for an offramp on Highway 101 in Los Angele ... True! But getting it to work in the Nevada desert and then Pheonix is an enormous accomplishment. Frank didn't just roll out of the womb and make it in New York. He also went through "..the blues..." where he could actually sing and be appreciated in the "..small towns..." before he made it in NYC. It took GM about '12 seconds' to realize that the required human chutzpah was way to much to get started and they were outathere.
"If you look at almost every industry that is trying to solve really, really difficult technical challenges, the folks that tend to be involved are a little bit crazy and little bit optimistic," he said. "You need to have that optimism to get up every day and bang your head against the wall to try to solve a problem that has never been solved, and it's not guaranteed that it ever will be solved." ... Absolutely true. By definition! (I also like to say that you need to be fundamentally stupid; else, you would have known how hard it was going to be and you would have just played golf or video games in your parent's basement...)
"These cars will be able to operate on a limited set of streets under a limited set of weather conditions at certain speeds," said Jody Kelman, an executive at Lyft. "We will very safely be able to deploy these cars, but they won't be able to go that many places." ... Yup!! There is absolutely nothing bad about that. Go someplace else. It doesn't need to be much tougher that "Chandler". It doesn't really need to be any "bigger" than "Chandler".
Waymo needs what Chandler doesn't have.. Customers ... Definition: folks whose quality-of-life can be substantially improved by what Waymo's Technology can readily deliver today. )
That's the market side of this initiative that Silicon Valley seems to have forgotten. Cool Technology doesn't happen, just because it is Technology. Technology happens because it is Cool. Cool is the value proposition, not Technology: else we'd have Segways and people wearing GoogleGlass all over the place.
Assisted Driving (what I call Self-drivingCars, or, sorry, SAE Level 1 and Level 2, or Tesla AutoPilot) are Cool (That technology delivers Comfort and Convenience to those that can afford and wish to buy cars). The buyer/customer just relies, for the most part, that engineers are making sure that the Technology works. Customers demand that the Technology adds to what they already enjoy (Cool). Their attention span is really short. The "lipstick" wears off quickly.
For Driverless... not so much Cool in Chandler. Maybe as a fling, or a tale, but actually, the negatives, largely outweigh the positives, think GoogleGlass. Few move or stay in Chandler unless you have a car (~70% Households have 2 or more cars). 'everyone' has their own car. So while the Waymo technology might work in Chandler, it doesn't have enough Waymophiles (customers for whom Waymo substantially improves what they already have for themselves) to make it a Go.
However, take "Trenton". 70 % of the households have one or zero cars. Many more Trentonians have the opportunity to appreciate the incremental value that Waymo will bring to their lives. They will more easily become Waymophiles if Waymo delivers in Trenton what Waymo has well demonstrated the "Cool" that it can deliver in Chandler. Even if Waymo shuts down until the few roads that it uses are plowed the few times it snows in Trenton. Trenton is Waymos's (Ford/Argo & GM/Cruise as well) "New York".
In short... While Chandler is an ideal place for Waymo to start getting its Technology working, Trenton is a great place for them to deliver societal value, which is supposed to be the fundamental mission of these Google "X.Projects" ... ..."
...X's primary output is breakthrough technologies that have the potential to transform people's lives and become large, sustainable businesses."
It is time that Waymo begins to take what they've accomplished and actually begin to deliver primary output. "Read more
Hmmmm... Excellent. Comments in line above. Also Listen/Watch PodCast above. Alain
May 22, 2021
Why I Ride with Waymo: Mike Waymo One, May 13, "... I started taking it to work, and after crunching the numbers for gas, maintenance, insurance, upkeep, and owning a depreciating investment, it was pretty much a no-brainer that we really didn't need two cars. I sold off my car and made Waymo my choice for commuting to and from work and for trips my wife and I need to take when the other is using our car..." Read more.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the "easiest" ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
May 15, 2021
Autonomous Vehicles: A Framework for Deployment and Safety R. Diamond, May 13, "Join SAFE for an event focused on the importance of autonomous vehicles to our national and economic security and outlining pathways for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles.
The event will feature remarks from Dr. Steve Cliff, Acting Administrator of NHTSA, a discussion between industry leaders, and the release of a report, "A Regulatory Framework for AV Safety," by O. Kevin Vincent, Associate General Counsel, Regulatory at Lucid...." Read more
Hmmmm... A must watch, complemented by the Vincent report and our latest PodCast below. Alain
May 8, 2021 Why has't Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here's my theory
T. Lee, May 7, "Suburban ride-hailing is a lousy business to be in.
Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver's seat.
And then... nothing. Seven months later, Waymo has neither expanded the footprint of the Phoenix service nor has it announced a timeline for launching in a second city.
It's as if Steve Jobs had unveiled the iPhone, shipped a few thousand phones to an Apple Store in Phoenix, and then didn't ship any more for months—and wouldn't explain why.
Last Friday, two Waymo employees participated in an "ask me anything" thread on the SelfDrivingCars subreddit, a watering hole for self-driving industry insiders. Questions about expansion plans dominated the conversation.
"How are you going to scale?" one redditor asked. "What are the impediments to service expansion at this time?"
The Waymonauts responded with maddening generalities.
"We feel the same urgency to scale quickly that others do, but a ton of work goes into doing it safely," wrote Waymo's Sam Kansara." Read more
Hmmmm... Not at all surprising. Can you imagine trying to be better than one's own Land Rover or Porsche in car country. That is a heavy lift. Making it heavier is the focus on today's most entitled yuppies. That's as bad as the original focus of driverless cars on 1%ers. Waymos are pure and simple mobility machines to get you from/to places horizontally, just as elevators do vertically ... just get you up to the "8th floor". Why are elevators so successful at what they do?... Second best is the stairwell! They win all the time, hands down.
In Chandler, the "stairwell" is your car parked in your garage. You don't even have to go outside in all that heat. Waymo's got to be really good to beat that! Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances "slim-to-none". Not that the car in the garage doesn't have an enormous amount of "excess baggage". Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it. When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car. Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live. That's a challenging market place for Waymo. It's worse than Bing v Google
A better place for Waymo ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service. The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car. Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don't have access to one. Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach "the eighth floor"; which, once they can using Waymo, would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.
Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that's arguably the last place for Waymo to go. However, the census identifies many communities and "inner suburbs" that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household. For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice. Numerous Trenton residents would readily perceive Waymo as the "Google" in their trip mode-choice.
Another note... trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool's gambit. Since Waymos don't misbehave, it is "easy" to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about. Alain
Link to previous SDC eLetters
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
alaink@princeton.edu
609-258-4657 (o)
609-980-1427 (c)