[log in to unmask]" _mf_state="1" title="null" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
S.Talbot,
July 2,"
Transportation
planning must
include
addressing
what happens
in a traffic
stop. This
July 4th
holiday
weekend
millions of
travelers will
take to the
road to visit
family and
friends in
celebration of
the
Independence
holiday. Tens
of thousands
of them will
be stopped by
a vehicle and
traffic law
enforcement
officer. A
vehicle and
traffic stop
by law
enforcement
can be a
dangerous
sometimes
scary event
for both the
law
enforcement
officer and
motorist
alike.
Who confronts
us - do they
look like us,
are they from
our
neighborhood -
and how we are
confronted by
the authority
of the police
often figures
into the
ultimate
outcome of the
stop.
In today’s age
of ready
cellphone
recording, we
do not have to
look far to
see stops that
show
outrageous
behavior by
officer and/or
the
driver/rider
of the stopped
vehicle. Too
often the
level and tone
of the officer
from the
inception of
the
interaction is
a raised
voice,
dictatorial
and
condescending.
That, however,
does not make
the motorist
correct if
their response
is to ignore
directives
from the
police and or
be
disrespectful
in return. It
is a recipe
for
disaster... "
Read more Hmmmm...Very pertinent and timely
article. I'd
go even
farther. It
is time that
we completely
rethink
traffic
stops. We
have
technology and
real-time
information
that can keep
drivers from
mis-behaving
and allow cops
to catch
criminals. We
need to start
over with a
clean sheet of
paper. Alain
B. Hambrick
June 30,
"...Achieving
functional
safety with
integrity
means ensuring
the absence of
unreasonable
risks due to
hazards caused
by a
malfunction in
any of the
solution’s
sub-systems
and
components.
This means all
possible
malfunctions
and their
associated
risks must be
taken into
consideration
during the
design stage.
Every
component of a
system must be
verified,
validated and
certified to
these
possibilities
for users to
be confident
in its
application.
This blog post
introduces the
design and
process
concepts and
approach used
for
positioning
technology to
achieve the
appropriate
functional
safety within
autonomous
vehicles. This
includes how
the components
and
sub-systems of
autonomous
vehicles are
tested and the
role integrity
plays when
developing
safety
certified
positioning
solutions...."
Read more Hmmmm... Very nice. Alain
F. Lambert,
July 2, "A
high-end Tesla
Model S Plaid
caught fire
Tuesday night
in Haverford,
Pennsylvania,
briefly
trapping the
driver inside,
according to
the local fire
department. A
lawyer for the
owner said the
vehicle
“spontaneously
combusted.”
Firefighters
from both the
Gladwyne and
Lower Merion
Fire
Departments
arrived on the
scene shortly
before 9PM ET
on Tuesday.
The
firefighters,
who had been
trained on how
to respond to
battery fires
involving
Tesla
vehicles,
“laid a 5 inch
supply line
into the scene
so that we
could keep a
continual
water stream
on the fire to
extinguish the
fire and cool
the batteries
down to ensure
complete
extinguishment,”
according to a
statement from
the Gladwyne
Fire
Department.
The driver
managed to
escape and
there were no
injuries
reported..." Read more Hmmmm... I hope that Tesla and
the whole EV
initiative
isn't
beginning to
experience a Hindenburg
moment.
Alain
Info Trend,
July 1, "
Close to 600
thousand
hydrogen fuel
cell buses and
minibuses will
be in service
by 2035,
according to a
market
research study
published by
Information
Trends (www.informationtrends.com).
The study,
"Global Market
for Hydrogen
Fuel Cell
Buses," covers
hydrogen buses
and other
public road
transportation
vehicles...."
Read more Hmmmm... Whew! Another "will be"
extrapolated
from a "NFT".
Building one's
future on top
of the Hindenburg,
Apollo
13 and
buses seems
like a
substantial
challenge.
Alain
F. Lambert,
July 1,
"Tesla’s
active safety
features
powered by its
new Tesla
Vision
computer
vision system
without radar
are proving to
be at least as
good as radar
in a new
independent
test.
When Tesla
announced the
transition to
its “Tesla
Vision”
Autopilot
without radar,
it warned that
it would
result in
limitations of
some Autopilot
features at
first. It
didn’t really
affect Tesla’s
major active
safety
features
powered by
Autopilot, but
Consumer
Reports and
the Insurance
Institute for
Highway Safety
(IIHS) both
pulled their
top safety
rating picks
for Tesla’s
Model 3 as
they believed
the active
safety
features to be
gone.
Today, they
have
reinstated the
ratings after
the latter
tested them on
the new Model
3 and found
that the
active safety
features were
at least just
as good
without radar.
IIHS wrote: “IIHS
has completed
tests of the
2021 Tesla
Model 3’s new
camera-based
front crash
prevention
system, which
rates superior
for
vehicle-to-vehicle
interactions
and advanced
for pedestrian
interactions.”..."
Read more Hmmmm... Well done, Elon. The
issue remains
as to how the
software is
identifying
objects in the
lane ahead and
reliably
computing the
free space under
(and over)
the detected
stationary
object.
I
suspect that
the biggest
issue with
radar that
Elon was
addressing was
Radar's
unreliability
in the
determination
of that free
space. This
is a critical
value to
determine if
you can safely
pass under (or
over) a
stationary
object
detected
ahead. Most
stationary
objects
detected ahead
can be readily
passed under
(overpasses,
signs, tree
canopies, ...)
(or passed
over (small
debris, small
trash, speed
bumps,
...))...
except when
they happen to
be a tree
truck (because
you were
showing off
and hopped in
the back
seat), blunt
end on a NJ
Barrier
(because the
lane makings
were so poor
that they
guided you in
that
direction).
parked fire
truck (because
the car you
were following
changed lanes
to avoid
hitting that
parked
firetruck and
it suddenly
appeared "out
of nowhere"
sitting in
your lane
ahead).
Because these
situations
occur so
infrequently and
"radar"
"often"
can't/doesn't
provide
information in
a way where
the free space
under an
object can be
determined,
the software
simply goes
with the more
prevalent...
assumes that
the object
ahead can be
passed under
and, should it
be wrong, the
driver, who is
supposed to be
alert, will
readily
determine that
they'd better
apply the
brakes; else,
a crash will
occur. These
are not
driverless
cars,
irrespective
of what you
might have
though Elon
might have
said. You,
the driver, is
responsible,
in the end, to
keep you from
crashing. NOT
Elon. He may
have provided
a few things
that work most
of the time,
but NONE work
ALL the
time.
Nice
system.
Removing radar
may well have
been a good
call. Given
all the data
that NHTSA
is going to
collect on
all of these
crashes of
vehicles with
and now
without radar,
it will be
very
interesting
the
limitations of
not only each
of these
sensors, but
also the
software that
uses the data
from these
sensors to
figure out
when and how
hard to hit
the brakes.
P.S. If LiDar doesn't do a substantially better job of helping to determine free-space under stationary objects ahead, it is very unlikely to be worth even a penny. Alain
F. Lambert,
July 1,
"Eviation,
which has been
described as
the “Tesla of
aircraft” for
working on the
first
compelling
long-range
electric
aircraft, has
unveiled the
production
version of its
Alice
aircraft.
It has a
shorter range
than
previously
announced...Tesla
CEO Elon Musk,
who has
revealed
having his own
design for a
VTOL electric
plane, says
that such a
system becomes
possible once
battery energy
density
reaches over
400 Wh/kg,
while his
Tesla vehicles
are believed
to be
currently
powered by
battery cells
with 250 to
300 Wh/kg.
Battery
technology is
improving at a
rapid pace,
and many
prototype
battery cells
have claimed
to have
reached the
400 Wh/kg
barrier.
It
boasted a
range of up to
600 miles (965
km) and a
capacity of up
to nine
passengers,
making it
viable for
some
short-haul
regional
airlines."
Read more Hmmmm...Issue.. What is the fuel
cost for a 300
mile trip?
Easy to
automate, so
labor cost is
"Zero". How
much are
these? Might
get 6 legs a
day at a load
factor of 67%
(AVO = 6)...
36
passengers/day...
10,000
passenger
miles per
day. Revenue
@
$0.25/PassMile
only give one
$2,500/day to
pay for
amortization,
maintenance
and
electricity.
300 operating
days per year
might allow
you to lease
these @
$0.5M/year
Are they going
to be that
cheap to make
safe? (I've
assumed they
are
crew-less).
Alain
F. Lambert,
July 1, "A
Tesla
Supercharger
station is now
getting direct
service from a
nearby
McDonald’s
that offers
direct
delivery to
Tesla owners
charging their
electric
vehicles.
When charging
station
operators open
new stations,
they try to
build them
near amenities
for drivers to
use when their
vehicles are
charging.
We are mainly
talking about
restrooms,
coffee shops,
and
restaurants...."
Read more Hmmmm...I So much for Range
Anxiety. Only
problem now
will be
heart-burn and
obesity. 😁
Alain
H. Poser'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines" . See slides, See video Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain
Virtual on July 12-15, 2021
These
editions re
sponsored by
the SmartETFs
Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information
head to www.motoetf.com
M.
Sena,
July/Aug. '21,
"In
this issue of
The Dispatcher
for July and
August, I
have taken up
a subject in
the lead
article that
has been on my
list for quite
some time. It
is of how cars
that drive
themselves
keep
themselves on
the road while
they make
their journey
to their
destination.
It turns out
that there is
a very good
reason why
Teslas crash
and Waymo is
running around
only in
Chandler,
Arizona after
people who
didn’t know
better
promised that
there would be
completely
driverless
cars on all
roads a decade
ago:
localization
of a moving
vehicle is
very, very
hard, even for
a human.
I encourage
you to read
Musings this
month. It’s
about making
the journey to
a world
without
climate change
protests, a
world where
they either
won’t be
necessary or
allowed. On
most journeys,
we have to
cross bridges.
Sometimes we
have to make
them
ourselves.
Think of the
article as the
first bridge
to cross
toward a
better
understanding
of the climate
change
journey.
Dispatch
Central
contains, as
usual,
something for
everyone.
Insurance is
addressed in
the two main
articles. In
Bits and
Pieces I have
added my
thoughts on
recent events.
This is a
double issue,
in part
because we are
going to try
to do more
this summer
than we could
do last. But
it’s also
because I need
some extra
time to work
on a follow-up
to the
Princeton
SmartDrivingCars
Summit with
Professor
Alain
Kornhauser.
There was a
concrete
proposal put
forward by
Professor
Kornhauser
during the
last session,
and many of us
who took part
in the Summit
have committed
to try to work
on
implementing
that proposal.
Read more Hmmmm... . Once again an
outstanding The
Dispatcher.
I happen to
have a diffent
fundamental
view on"exact
localization"
than Michael,
many and
possibly even
everyone
else... As
usual, I'll
take a very
self-centered
view... I've
lived my whole
life without
knowing (or
caring to
know) my
"exact
location".
I've been
satisfied to
know: "sort
of... where am
I?" but
exact...where
am I? ... not
so much.
What troubles
me about the
"exact where
am I" is that
this exactness
is in some
coordinate
system. Where
is the origin
of that
coordinate
system and is
moving? Oh,
it's the
"center" of
the earth??
Or some
"reference
point". So
"exact" is
actually,
"exact
relative to
some reference
point. Little
seems to ever
be said about
the
"exactness" of
the reference
point, but
that may
actually be
some saving
grace about
"exact".. it
is "exact"
relative to
some reference
point.
I
see.. If the
reference
point is the
center of the
Universe, then
I'd better be
really-really
precise; else,
small small
changes mean
big-big
differences.
If the
reference is
the center of
the earth,
then I may
just need to
be really
precise; else,
small changes
mean big
differences.
However, if
the reference
point is my
nose and I'm
trying to stay
between two
white lines
and not hit
anything, then
the precision
to which I
need to know
where things
are may not
need to be
very precise
as long as I
have a little
bit of leeway
and still stay
between the
lines and
leave enough
room around
the various
objects to not
hit them.
OK,
safe driving
requires only
knowing where
I am relative
to objects
around me to a
moderate level
of precision.
I can do it in
two ways...
take the
difference
between two
values:
location of
object and my
location. The
farther away
the reference
point, the
more precise
they will need
to be if
precision of
the difference
is to be
maintained.
Consequently,
if the
measurements
are relative
to my nose,
the need for
about as small
as it can
get.
Moreover,
any precision
data base
lacks some
"most"
important
values.. 1. a
precise value
for my
location and
2. a precise
value for
anything
around me that
moves (meaning
it wasn't at
its current
location when
the HD
database was
assembled).
Required is
the ability in
real time to
locate and
track objects
relative to me
(my nose, the
hood ornament
of my car, ..)
with only some
precision
These objects
and their
location
aren't
included in
these
precise/HD
databases.
What is needed
is a very
reliable means
of identifying
objects and
determining
their position
and velocity
with little
latency. This
is absolutely
necessary;uyr;y necessary for the moving objects, might as well do it
also for the
stationary
objects. 😁
Alain
Please don't suggest that one needs an HD map database in order to run their SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping) algorithm. That algorithm needs as input the relative position (sensor observations) of objects . The capability to determine those inputs is all that is needed to do collision avoidance, so don't even bother going through the SLAM computation and certainly don't pay for a reference data set.
C. Mims, June 5, "..." Read more Hmmmm... Not to be defensive, but I will be...
"In 2015, Elon Musk said self-driving cars
that could
drive
“anywhereâ€
would be here
within two or
three years."
...
According to
my definition,
from day-one
(>9 years
ago), of my 3
(very)
different
types of
SmartDrivingCars:
In 2016, Lyft CEO John Zimmer predicted they would “all but end†car ownership by 2025.
... Hopefully by then, that thought will be in at least some minds. Putting some blemish on what the Mad Men created as an absolute human desire would be a substantial achievement....
In 2018, Waymo CEO John Krafcik warned autonomous robocars would take longer than expected.
...
Nothing wrong
here...
In
2021, some
experts
aren’t sure
when, if ever,
individuals
will be able
to purchase
steering-wheel-free
cars that
drive
themselves off
the lot...."
...
From the
beginning
and continue
today I argue
that there is
no market
in the
personal
ownership of
Driverless
Cars. Why own
it??? I can't
even drive
it!!! Just to
sit in my
driveway???
I'm going to
make it a
business???
I'll be the
smallest
businessman in
the world,
bearing on my
shoulders the
highest form
of personal
responsibility,
the life &
safety of my
customer. NOT
GONNA HAPPEN!!!
Also...
please, not
everyone
promised
anything. And
I haven't even
mentioned Steve Schladover
who has been
stalwart in
his efforts to
advance this
technology in
a realistic
context.
The
Society of
Automotive
Engineers had,
and continue
to have, an
opportunity to
bring realism
to this
community by,
at the very
least, simply
dropping any
reference to
anything
called "Level
5". If SAE
wishes to be
humble and
brave, they
can also
apologize for
even
suggesting
that Level 5's
"everywhere"
could ever
exist within
the lifetimes
of any current
or soon to be
member of SAE.
By creating
the category,
SAE baited the
Mad Men,
Sunday
Supplementers
and Click-Bait
folks into
fantasizing
something
envisioned by
a reputable,
serious
organization.
C. Metz,
May 24, "...
So what went
wrong? Some
researchers
would say
nothing —
that’s how
science works.
You can’t
entirely
predict what
will happen in
an experiment.
...
It's not an
experiment if
you can
predict the
outcome. Why
bother doing
it???
More importantly, Mother Nature is involved and you don't know what she is going to throw at you. Which is why simulations are not the complete answer... They'll only regurgitate what you told them to do (which is somewhat useful because they implicate together the things that you thought you knew, giving you new insights.). The challenge is, She's not involved in the simulation but She is every time you do it... But that's life and that's what makes it exiting and worth living.... The self-driving car project just happened to be one of the most hyped technology experiments of this century, occurring on streets all over the country and run by some of its highest-profile companies....
Self-driving
tech is not
yet nimble
enough to
reliably
handle the
variety of
situations
human drivers
encounter each
day. It can
usually handle
suburban
Phoenix, but
it can’t
duplicate the
human chutzpah
needed for
merging into
the Lincoln
Tunnel in New
York or
dashing for an
offramp on
Highway 101 in
Los Angele ...
True! But
getting it to
work in the
Nevada desert
and then
Pheonix is an
enormous
accomplishment.
Frank
didn't just
roll out of
the womb and
make it in New
York. He also
went through
"..the
blues..."
where he could
actually sing
and be
appreciated in
the "..small
towns..."
before he made
it in NYC. It
took GM
about '12
seconds'
to realize
that the
required human
chutzpah was
way to much to
get started
and they were
outathere.
“If you
look at almost
every industry
that is trying
to solve
really, really
difficult
technical
challenges,
the folks that
tend to be
involved are a
little bit
crazy and
little bit
optimistic,â€
he said.
“You need to
have that
optimism to
get up every
day and bang
your head
against the
wall to try to
solve a
problem that
has never been
solved, and
it’s not
guaranteed
that it ever
will be
solved.†...
Absolutely
true. By
definition! (I
also like to
say that you
need to be
fundamentally
stupid; else,
you would have
known how hard
it was going
to be and you
would have
just played
golf or video
games in your
parent's
basement...)
“These
cars will be
able to
operate on a
limited set of
streets under
a limited set
of weather
conditions at
certain
speeds,â€
said Jody
Kelman, an
executive at
Lyft. “We
will very
safely be able
to deploy
these cars,
but they
won’t be
able to go
that many
places.†...
Yup!! There is
absolutely
nothing bad
about that.
Go someplace
else. It
doesn't need
to be much
tougher that
"Chandler". It
doesn't really
need to be any
"bigger" than
"Chandler".
Waymo needs what Chandler doesn't have.. Customers ... Definition: folks whose quality-of-life can be substantially improved by what Waymo's Technology can readily deliver today. )
That's the
market side of
this
initiative
that Silicon
Valley seems
to have
forgotten.
Cool
Technology
doesn't
happen, just
because it is
Technology.
Technology
happens
because it is
Cool. Cool is
the value
proposition,
not
Technology:
else we'd have
Segways
and people
wearing GoogleGlass
all over the
place.
Assisted
Driving (what
I call
Self-drivingCars,
or, sorry, SAE
Level 1 and
Level 2, or
Tesla
AutoPilot) are
Cool (That
technology
delivers
Comfort and
Convenience to
those that can
afford and
wish to buy
cars). The
buyer/customer
just relies,
for the most
part, that
engineers are
making sure
that the
Technology
works.
Customers
demand that
the Technology
adds to
what they
already enjoy
(Cool). Their
attention span
is really
short. The "lipstick"
wears off
quickly.
For
Driverless...
not so much
Cool in
Chandler.
Maybe as a
fling, or a
tale, but
actually, the
negatives,
largely
outweigh the
positives,
think
GoogleGlass.
Few move or
stay in
Chandler
unless you
have a car
(~70%
Households
have 2 or more
cars).
'everyone' has
their own
car. So while
the Waymo
technology
might work in
Chandler, it
doesn't have
enough
Waymophiles
(customers for
whom Waymo
substantially
improves what
they already
have for
themselves) to
make it a Go.
However,
take
"Trenton". 70
% of the
households
have one or
zero cars.
Many more
Trentonians
have the
opportunity to
appreciate the
incremental
value that
Waymo will
bring to their
lives. They
will more
easily become
Waymophiles
if Waymo
delivers in
Trenton what
Waymo has well
demonstrated
the "Cool"
that it can
deliver in
Chandler.
Even if Waymo
shuts down
until the few
roads that it
uses are
plowed the few
times it snows
in Trenton.
Trenton is
Waymos's
(Ford/Argo
&
GM/Cruise as
well) "New
York".
In
short... While
Chandler is an
ideal place
for Waymo to
start getting
its Technology
working,
Trenton is a
great place
for them to
deliver
societal
value, which
is supposed to
be the
fundamental
mission of
these Google "X.Projects" ... ..."
...X’s primary
output
is
breakthrough
technologies
that have the
potential to transform
people’s
lives and
become large,
sustainable
businesses."
Waymo
One, May 13,
"... I started
taking it to
work, and
after
crunching the
numbers for
gas,
maintenance,
insurance,
upkeep, and
owning a
depreciating
investment, it
was pretty
much a
no-brainer
that we really
didn't need
two cars. I
sold off my
car and made
Waymo my
choice for
commuting to
and from work
and for trips
my wife and I
need to take
when the other
is using our
car..." Read more Hmmmm...This is really great that
he "crunched
the numbers"
and found it
to be "pretty
much a
no-brainer",
which is what
every real
Waymo customer
in Chandler
has to do to
become a Waymo
customer. One
"doesn't move
to Chandler
unless one has
"two cars". See
slide 5:
70% of the
households
have 2 or more
cars in
Chandler, so
most of the
folks have had
to do the math
to become a
customer. If
Waymo offered
the same
service in
Trenton, where
70% of the
households
have at most
one car and
30% don't have
any, then it
doesn't take
much number
crunching to
appreciate
Waymo when
walking is the
next best way
to go.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the "easiest" ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
R.
Diamond, May
13, "Join SAFE
for an event
focused on the
importance of
autonomous
vehicles to
our national
and economic
security and
outlining
pathways for
the safe
deployment of
autonomous
vehicles.
The event will
feature
remarks from
Dr. Steve
Cliff, Acting
Administrator
of NHTSA, a
discussion
between
industry
leaders, and
the release of
a report, "A
Regulatory
Framework for
AV Safety," by
O. Kevin
Vincent,
Associate
General
Counsel,
Regulatory at
Lucid...." Read
more Hmmmm... A must watch,
complemented
by the Vincent
report and
our latest PodCast below.
Alain
229
Sherrerd Hall Princeton University Princeton, NJ [log in to unmask] 609-258-4657 (o) 609-980-1427 (c) |
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="90" height="100" border="0"> |