2021-07-02
2, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;”>25th edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race
J. Thornhill,
June 24,
"Brimming with
epic successes
and
spectacular
failures, the
early history
of the motor
car industry
offers clues
about its
future, too.
As so often
during
technological
revolutions,
initial bursts
of fast and
furious
experimentation
by wild-eyed
pioneers are
followed by
waves of
industry
consolidation
by more sober
corporate
types.
So it was in
the US from
the 1890s,
when scores of
obsessive
entrepreneurs
launched the
modern auto
industry. Over
the next few
decades they
founded
hundreds of
companies
manufacturing
thousands of
different
models. In the
words of one
historian,
these
dedicated
enthusiasts
competed in a
"drastically
Darwinian"
world and
seemed to
prefer "to go
broke making
automobiles
than get rich
doing anything
else", a tune
which
resonates
again today.
But the
development of capital-intensive mass manufacturing methods, the Great Depression and
the second
world war
thinned out
the
competition.
By 1950, the
industry was
dominated by
just three
giant
corporations:
General
Motors, Ford
and Chrysler,
which between
them accounted
for about
three-quarters
of global
production.
Today, the car
industry is
opening up
once again to
new entrants
amid another
technological
convulsion as
electric and
connected
vehicles — and
maybe
eventually
autonomous
cars — replace
combustion
engine motors
driven by
humans. As
this
revolution
unfolds, we
are seeing
another burst
of creative
competition as entrepreneurial start-ups and tech companies flood into the market. ...
The industry's
dream is to
create an
attractive and
reliable
$25,000
electric car
that overcomes
range anxiety.
As Alain
Kornhauser, a
professor at
Princeton
University,
says, the
winners will
be those who
can build cars
that appeal to
everyday
drivers as
well as the
"greasers and
truckers".
"It's all
about the
sociology, not
the
technology,"
he adds.
In other
words, it will
be, as it has
always been
throughout
history, the
customer who
decides." [Read more](https://www.ft.com/content/fa585fe6-3c69-4e12-b3bb-d48560fbdbb2) Hmmmm... Same for Driverless AVs.
Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221,
[Zoom-Cast Episode 221](https://youtu.be/iHWTpaIXu4I)
w/Mark
Rosekind,
Chief Safety
Innovation
Officer, Zoox
F. Fishkin, July 1, “With Zoox…the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company’s vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more. “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
SmartDrivingCars
[Pod-Cast Episode 220](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-220),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 220](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Li7xyruM0w)
w/John
Thornhill,
Innovation
Editor,
Financial
Times
F. Fishkin, July 1, “Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That’s a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill…who joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that…plus Tesla…autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu. “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
The
SmartDrivingCars
eLetter,
Pod-Casts,
Zoom-Casts and
Zoom-inars are
made possible
in part by
support from
the Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For
more
information: [www.motoetf.com](https://www.smartetfs.com/). Most funding is
supplied by
Princeton
University's
Department of
Operations
Research &
Financial
Engineering
and Princeton
Autonomous
Vehicle
Engineering
(PAVE)
research
laboratory as
part of its
research
dissemination
initiative
Why Am I Being Stopped?
S.Talbot, July 2,” Transportation planning must include addressing what happens in a traffic stop. This July 4th holiday weekend millions of travelers will take to the road to visit family and friends in celebration of the Independence holiday. Tens of thousands of them will be stopped by a vehicle and traffic law enforcement officer. A vehicle and traffic stop by law enforcement can be a dangerous sometimes scary event for both the law enforcement officer and motorist alike.
Who confronts
us - do they
look like us,
are they from
our
neighborhood -
and how we are
confronted by
the authority
of the police
often figures
into the
ultimate
outcome of the
stop.
In today's age
of ready
cellphone
recording, we
do not have to
look far to
see stops that
show
outrageous
behavior by
officer and/or
the
driver/rider
of the stopped
vehicle. Too
often the
level and tone
of the officer
from the
inception of
the
interaction is
a raised
voice,
dictatorial
and
condescending.
That, however,
does not make
the motorist
correct if
their response
is to ignore
directives
from the
police and or
be
disrespectful
in return. It
is a recipe
for
disaster... "
[Read more](https://www.forbes.com/sites/selikajosiahtalbott/2021/07/02/why-am-i-being-stopped/?sh=2b05bc5a32b0) Hmmmm...Very pertinent and timely
article. I'd
go even
farther. It
is time that
we completely
rethink
traffic
stops. We
have
technology and
real-time
information
that can keep
drivers from
mis-behaving
and allow cops
to catch
criminals. We
need to start
over with a
clean sheet of
paper. Alain
The auto industry is distancing itself from Tesla in response to new crash reporting rule
A. Hawkins,
June 30, "The
auto industry
is holding its
fire — for now
— over the new
requirement to
report crashes
involving
vehicles
equipped with
partially and
fully
autonomous
driving
systems. But
automakers are
also
distancing
themselves
from the
company that
appears to be
the primary
target of the
new rule:
Tesla.
The rule,
issued
yesterday by
the National
Highway
Traffic Safety Administration, requires companies like Tesla and Alphabet's Waymo to
report
incidents
involving
driver
assistance and
autonomous
systems within
one day of
learning of a
crash, a major
change that
signals a
tougher stance
by
regulators....."
[Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/30/22557135/nhtsa-autonomous-adas-crash-rule-response-tesla) Hmmmm... I continue to interpret
NHTSA's crash
reporting
requirement to
extend to cars
having
Automated
Emergency
Braking. It
should also
include those
with
Electronic
Stability
Control (how
well do those
systems really
work??) .
This would
encompass all
new cars
manufactured
since 2012.
We all need to do a much better job in the design and implementation of each and every electronic driver assistance subsystem. Alain
Tesla (TSLA) announces record deliveries in Q2 2021: 201,000 electric cars
F. Lambert,
July 2, "Tesla
has confirmed
that it
managed to
build 206,421
vehicles and
deliver
201,250
electric cars
in Q2 2021 – a
new record for
the electric
automaker.
As we
previously
reported, the
expectations
for Tesla this
quarter were
kind of all
over the place
since it has
been known
that the
company was
facing some
important
supply chain
challenges in
Q2.
Delays in
bringing the
new Model S to
market created
a backlog at
the end of the
quarter, and
on top of
that, over
10,000
vehicles were
put on a
containment
hold in May,
which delayed
many
deliveries
until Tesla
was able to
push its new
computer
vision system.
It resulted in
June and
especially the
very end of
the quarter
potentially
making a very
important
difference in
the overall
delivery
results for
the
quarter...." [Read more](https://electrek.co/2021/07/02/tesla-deliveries-q2-2021/) Hmmmm... Very impressive. Teslas
continue to be
bought by
customers
while others,
not so much.
Alain
AutonomouStuff June 2021 News: Testing functional safety for autonomous vehicles
B. Hambrick June 30, “…Achieving functional safety with integrity means ensuring the absence of unreasonable risks due to hazards caused by a malfunction in any of the solution’s sub-systems and components. This means all possible malfunctions and their associated risks must be taken into consideration during the design stage. Every component of a system must be verified, validated and certified to these possibilities for users to be confident in its application.
This blog post
introduces the
design and
process
concepts and
approach used
for
positioning
technology to
achieve the
appropriate
functional
safety within
autonomous
vehicles. This
includes how
the components
and
sub-systems of
autonomous
vehicles are
tested and the
role integrity
plays when
developing
safety
certified
positioning
solutions...."
[Read more](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0012-rTmpDQHG-6gWoJPcoLCqE8oVyOSNfB5RaAazEGrBszi_LZdK-q53RI7d18alhP-PA4dXTG6zEG00Qa98ICgyC3RW_dZUZqNc3DkpYUAXOsCGitZGcNT1nTlnMTn53Zz6257tMsUMpZwoaS--Pvzhij6BAIVnSL-eQXsdiA8SZFOWI9rvT6a4gnbFmBH7Ql0MbVMUIQ75Q=&c=byWfAcfaAQWrztzRcrxAXHCWVWGSvweM6kaJAXrqBgJ7UJXc8I_cNQ==&ch=CoZ0dGtIK4aNtoE7JxzbgPZBg-2n3BMRs8bsx1PHUVkrtanYYcXm4g==) Hmmmm... Very nice. Alain
A Tesla Model S Plaid caught fire in Pennsylvania, briefly trapping the driver inside
F. Lambert, July 2, “A high-end Tesla Model S Plaid caught fire Tuesday night in Haverford, Pennsylvania, briefly trapping the driver inside, according to the local fire department. A lawyer for the owner said the vehicle “spontaneously combusted.”
Firefighters
from both the
Gladwyne and
Lower Merion
Fire
Departments
arrived on the
scene shortly
before 9PM ET
on Tuesday.
The
firefighters,
who had been
trained on how
to respond to
battery fires
involving
Tesla
vehicles,
"laid a 5 inch
supply line
into the scene
so that we
could keep a
continual
water stream
on the fire to
extinguish the
fire and cool
the batteries
down to ensure
complete
extinguishment,"
according to a
statement from
the Gladwyne
Fire
Department.
The driver
managed to
escape and
there were no
injuries
reported..." [Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/2/22560662/tesla-model-s-plaid-fire-driver-battery-pennsylvania) Hmmmm... I hope that Tesla and
the whole EV
initiative
isn't
beginning to
experience a [Hindenburg moment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_disaster).
Alain
Hydrogen Buses Are the Driving Force Behind Fuel Cell Vehicles, Says Information Trends
Info Trend, July 1, “ Close to 600 thousand hydrogen fuel cell buses and minibuses will be in service by 2035, according to a market research study published by Information Trends (www.informationtrends.com). The study, “Global Market for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Buses,” covers hydrogen buses and other public road transportation vehicles….” Read more Hmmmm… Whew! Another “will be” extrapolated from a “NFT”. Building one’s future on top of the Hindenburg, Apollo 13 and buses seems like a substantial challenge. Alain
Tesla Vision-powered active safety features found to be at least as good as with radar in new test
F. Lambert, July 1, “Tesla’s active safety features powered by its new Tesla Vision computer vision system without radar are proving to be at least as good as radar in a new independent test.
When Tesla
announced the
transition to
its "Tesla
Vision"
Autopilot
without radar,
it warned that
it would
result in
limitations of
some Autopilot
features at
first. It
didn't really
affect Tesla's
major active
safety
features
powered by
Autopilot, but
Consumer
Reports and
the Insurance
Institute for
Highway Safety
(IIHS) both
pulled their
top safety
rating picks
for Tesla's
Model 3 as
they believed
the active
safety
features to be
gone.
Today, they
have
reinstated the
ratings after
the latter
tested them on
the new Model
3 and found
that the
active safety
features were
at least just
as good
without radar.
IIHS wrote: "IIHS
has completed
tests of the
2021 Tesla
Model 3's new
camera-based
front crash
prevention
system, which
rates superior
for
vehicle-to-vehicle
interactions
and advanced
for pedestrian
interactions."..."
[Read more](https://electrek.co/2021/06/29/tesla-vision-active-safety-features-with-radar-test/) Hmmmm... Well done, Elon. The
issue remains
as to how the
software is
identifying
objects in the
lane ahead and
reliably
computing the
free space under
(and over)
the detected
stationary
object.
I suspect that the biggest issue with radar that Elon was addressing was Radar’s unreliability in the determination of that free space. This is a critical value to determine if you can safely pass under (or over) a stationary object detected ahead. Most stationary objects detected ahead can be readily passed under (overpasses, signs, tree canopies, …) (or passed over (small debris, small trash, speed bumps, …))… except when they happen to be a tree truck (because you were showing off and hopped in the back seat), blunt end on a NJ Barrier (because the lane makings were so poor that they guided you in that direction). parked fire truck (because the car you were following changed lanes to avoid hitting that parked firetruck and it suddenly appeared “out of nowhere” sitting in your lane ahead). Because these situations occur so infrequently and “radar” “often” can’t/doesn’t provide information in a way where the free space under an object can be determined, the software simply goes with the more prevalent… assumes that the object ahead can be passed under and, should it be wrong, the driver, who is supposed to be alert, will readily determine that they’d better apply the brakes; else, a crash will occur. These are not driverless cars, irrespective of what you might have though Elon might have said. You, the driver, is responsible, in the end, to keep you from crashing. NOT Elon. He may have provided a few things that work most of the time, but NONE work ALL the time.
Nice system. Removing radar may well have been a good call. Given all the data that NHTSA is going to collect on all of these crashes of vehicles with and now without radar, it will be very interesting the limitations of not only each of these sensors, but also the software that uses the data from these sensors to figure out when and how hard to hit the brakes.
P.S. If LiDar doesn’t do a substantially better job of helping to determine free-space under stationary objects ahead, it is very unlikely to be worth even a penny. Alain
Eviation’s ‘Tesla of aircraft’ production version unveiled with over 400 miles of range
F. Lambert, July 1, “Eviation, which has been described as the “Tesla of aircraft” for working on the first compelling long-range electric aircraft, has unveiled the production version of its Alice aircraft.
It has a
shorter range
than
previously
announced...Tesla
CEO Elon Musk,
who has
revealed
having his own
design for a
VTOL electric
plane, says
that such a
system becomes
possible once
battery energy
density
reaches over
400 Wh/kg,
while his
Tesla vehicles
are believed
to be
currently
powered by
battery cells
with 250 to
300 Wh/kg.
Battery
technology is
improving at a
rapid pace,
and many
prototype
battery cells
have claimed
to have
reached the
400 Wh/kg
barrier.
It boasted a range of up to 600 miles (965 km) and a capacity of up to nine passengers, making it viable for some short-haul regional airlines.”Read more Hmmmm…Issue.. What is the fuel cost for a 300 mile trip? Easy to automate, so labor cost is “Zero”. How much are these? Might get 6 legs a day at a load factor of 67% (AVO = 6)… 36 passengers/day… 10,000 passenger miles per day. Revenue @ $0.25/PassMile only give one $2,500/day to pay for amortization, maintenance and electricity. 300 operating days per year might allow you to lease these @ $0.5M/year Are they going to be that cheap to make safe? (I’ve assumed they are crew-less). Alain
Tesla Supercharger station gets direct service from McDonald’s: get a Big Mac while charging?
F. Lambert, July 1, “A Tesla Supercharger station is now getting direct service from a nearby McDonald’s that offers direct delivery to Tesla owners charging their electric vehicles. When charging station operators open new stations, they try to build them near amenities for drivers to use when their vehicles are charging.
We are mainly
talking about
restrooms,
coffee shops,
and
restaurants...."
[Read more](https://electrek.co/2021/06/25/tesla-supercharger-station-direct-service-from-mcdonalds-big-mac-while-charging/) Hmmmm...I So much for Range
Anxiety. Only
problem now
will be
heart-burn and
obesity. 😁
Alain
More On….
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Poser’77, Sept 13, 2020. “Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines” . See slides, See video Hmmmm… Simply Brilliant. Alain
0, 0);">[Annual Princeton](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210128)SmartDrivingCar
Summit [It is over!!!](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210325)
Now time to
actually do
something in
the Trentons
of this
world.
Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April
18, "“It’s
time to hit
the start
button,†is
[Fred Fishkin’s](https://www.techstination.com/)
succinct way
of summarizing
the next steps
in the Smart
Driving Car
journey.
Fiskin, along
with the LA
Times’ [Russ Mitchell](https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell?lang=en)
co-produced
the final
session of the
[2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen â€" Part 2](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210415).
This 16th and
final session
in this
multi-month
online
conference not
only provided
a s[ummary of the thought-provoking speakers](https://viodi.com/2021/04/18/making-driverless-happen-the-road-forward/),
but also
provided food
for thought on
a way forward
to bring
mobility to
“the
Trentons of
the World.â€
Setting the
stage for this
final session,
Michael Sena
provided
highlights of
the Smart
Driving Car
journey that
started in
late December
2020. Safety,
high-quality,
and affordable
mobility,
particularly
for those who
do not have
many options,
was a common
theme to the
2021 Smart
Driving Car
Summit. As
Princeton
Professor
Kornhauser,
the conference
organizer put
it,....." [Read more](https://viodi.com/2021/04/18/making-driverless-happen-the-road-forward/) Hmmmm.... We had another
excellent
Session.
Thank you for
the summary,
Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle’s Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
[Michael Sena's Slides](https://www.dropbox.com/s/yfzscinfy41vrka/Sena_Session8%20SDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0),
[Glenn Mercer Slides](https://www.dropbox.com/s/8x4sd97vrifa9r9/Mercer_Session8%20SDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0)
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021“Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the “Trentons” of this World”
Orf467F20_FinalReport “Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System” Kornhauser & He, March 2021 “AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative”
C’mon Man!(These folks didn’t get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
The 2021 TRB Annual
Automated Road Transportation Symposium
Virtual on July 12-15, 2021
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Fall 2021 Live in Person Tentaively: November 2 (evening) -> 4, 2021
Georgia,
serif;">
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean’s AV Research Group at U of Texas
and
[The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT](https://www.itu.int/en/fnc/2021/Pages/default.aspx)
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, “Recordings from the conference:
Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: ([Cybersecurity](https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY)): [https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY](https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY)
Session 3: [(Automated Driving Systems](https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc)): [https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc](https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc)
Session 4: [(Communications for ADS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso)) : [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso)
Read more Hmmmm… Russ, thank you for sharing! Alain
###
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 219, Zoom-Cast Episode 219 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, June 29 , “Why couldn’t a smart driving car prevent Alain’s crash with a deer? How important is exact location for highly automated driving? And NHTSA wants reports on all automated vehicle system crashes. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 218, Zoom-Cast Episode 218 w/Xinfeng Le, Waymo Product Manager
F. Fishkin, June 10 , “Have questions about Waymo’s partnership with JB Hunt to test autonomous trucks in Texas? So do we…and Waymo’s Product Manager, Xinfeng Le joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to provide answers. Plus.. Waymo raises 2 and a half billion dollars, MacKenzie Scott gives away billions, start-up Waabi comes out of stealth, Argo AI plans an IPO and more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 217, Zoom-Cast Episode 217 w/Christorpher Mims, Columnist, Wall Street Journal
F. Fishkin, June 7 , “Are self-driving cars still decades ahead? Wall Street Jopurnal columnist and author Christopher Mims joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the progress and roadblocks. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, the dramatic rise in road deaths during Covid and more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 216, Zoom-Cast Episode 216 w/Michael Sena, editor The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 28 , “The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming Into Focus. That’s on top in the June edition of The Dispatcher. From Sweden, publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus better batteries, May Mobility, Tesla and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 215, Zoom-Cast Episode 215 w/Cade Metz, Correspondent, NY Times & Ken Pyle, editor, Viodi.com
F. Fishkin, May 27 , “The Costly Pursuit of Self Driving Cars Continues On and On and On. That’s the headline of a NY Times story this week. The reporter, Cade Metz, also the author of a new book on artificial intelligence, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Ken Pyle of Viodi View..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 214, Zoom-Cast Episode 214
F. Fishkin, May 23 , “An interview with the chief engineer behind Ford’s F150 Lightning EV truck…Waymo shares rider stories and the AFL-CIO tells Congress autonomous vehicles should be required to have human operators. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America’s Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , “The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America’s Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM, #TuSimple and more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too. “..
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America’s Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , “The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America’s Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM, #TuSimple and more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too.. https://youtu.be/Z6NBRrtTDnI “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212 w/Ken Pyle
F. Fishkin, May 8 , “Where does Waymo go from here? Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles? Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211 w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 1 , “There’s plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense…and what doesn’t. Plus #Tesla, #Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. …”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210 w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron’23
F. Fishkin, April 26 , “Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from #Elon​ Musk’s The Boring Company. Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton’s Alain ..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209 w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.
F. Fishkin, April , “The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208 w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo
F. Fishkin, April 18, “What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo…some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207 w/Selika Josiah Talbott
F. Fishkin, April 10 , “When a driverless vehicle crashes…what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206 w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
F. Fishkin, April 2, “When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles? How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome? Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin…”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205 w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher. President, MLSena Consulting
F. Fishkin, March 26, “Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities. So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more…on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars…”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, “.With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker’s new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table…and a look at the future of auto insurance..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser
###
F. Fishkin,
March 13,
".GM's move to
transform auto
insurance
through OnStar
Insurance:
Is it a win,
win for
all? Is
adaptive
cruise control
prompting some
drivers to
speed? And
what does
Tesla really
mean by "full
self
driving"?
Just some of
the questions
tackled in
the latest
edition of
Smart Driving
Cars with
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin."
[SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-202),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 202](https://youtu.be/Hj3GmnTqfdk) President
& CEO,
RoadDB
###
###
F. Fishkin,
March 3, "When
will we be
able to
purchase cars
that can
largely drive
themselves?
It may not be
long...but
don't expect
to vacate the
driver's
seat. That's
the view of
entrepreneur,
tech pioneer
and RoadDB CEO
Russ
Shields. He
takes an in
depth look at
where we are
and where
we're headed
with
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin." [SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-201),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 201](https://youtu.be/n5oEfvBrWa8)
w/Michael
Sena,
Publisher of The
Dispatcher
###
###
F. Fishkin,
Feb. 26,
"Smarter cars
need smarter
assembly...and
location
matters. The
Dispatcher
publisher
Michael Sena
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin for a
look at that,
politics,
climate and
carmakers...plus
Tesla,
Velodyne,
Foxconn and
more.." [SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-200),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 200](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVHQuwNT4eY&feature=youtu.be)
w/Edwin Olsen,
CEO, May
Mobility
###
###
F. Fishkin,
Feb. 22, "How
May Mobility
is building
confidence in
autonomous
transportation
and creating a
road map for
growth through
the pandemic
and beyond.
CEO and
co-founder
Edwin Olson
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin for
that and
more."
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
June 28, 2021
[How Important is Exact Localization for HAD?](https://www.dropbox.com/s/e8ql7q722zxqb13/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf?dl=0) M.
Sena,
July/Aug. '21,
"[In this issue of The Dispatcher for July and August](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf), I
have taken up
a subject in
the lead
article that
has been on my
list for quite
some time. It
is of how cars
that drive
themselves
keep
themselves on
the road while
they make
their journey
to their
destination.
It turns out
that there is
a very good
reason why
Teslas crash
and Waymo is
running around
only in
Chandler,
Arizona after
people who
didn't know
better
promised that
there would be
completely
driverless
cars on all
roads a decade
ago:
localization
of a moving
vehicle is
very, very
hard, even for
a human.
I encourage
you to read
Musings this
month. It's
about making
the journey to
a world
without
climate change
protests, a
world where
they either
won't be
necessary or
allowed. On
most journeys,
we have to
cross bridges.
Sometimes we
have to make
them
ourselves.
Think of the
article as the
first bridge
to cross
toward a
better
understanding
of the climate
change
journey.
Dispatch
Central
contains, as
usual,
something for
everyone.
Insurance is
addressed in
the two main
articles. In
Bits and
Pieces I have
added my
thoughts on
recent events.
This is a
double issue,
in part
because we are
going to try
to do more
this summer
than we could
do last. But
it's also
because I need
some extra
time to work
on a follow-up
to the
Princeton
SmartDrivingCars
Summit with
Professor
Alain
Kornhauser.
There was a
concrete
proposal put
forward by
Professor
Kornhauser
during the
last session,
and many of us
who took part
in the Summit
have committed
to try to work
on
implementing
that proposal.
[Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/e8ql7q722zxqb13/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf?dl=0) Hmmmm... . Once again an
outstanding The
Dispatcher.
I happen to
have a diffent
fundamental
view on"exact
localization"
than Michael,
many and
possibly even
everyone
else... As
usual, I'll
take a very
self-centered
view... I've
lived my whole
life without
knowing (or
caring to
know) my
"exact
location".
I've been
satisfied to
know: "sort
of... where am
I?" but
exact...where
am I? ... not
so much.
What troubles
me about the
"exact where
am I" is that
this exactness
is in some
coordinate
system. Where
is the origin
of that
coordinate
system and is
moving? Oh,
it's the
"center" of
the earth??
Or some
"reference
point". So
"exact" is
actually,
"exact
relative to
some reference
point. Little
seems to ever
be said about
the
"exactness" of
the reference
point, but
that may
actually be
some saving
grace about
"exact".. it
is "exact"
relative to
some reference
point.
I see.. If the reference point is the center of the Universe, then I’d better be really-really precise; else, small small changes mean big-big differences. If the reference is the center of the earth, then I may just need to be really precise; else, small changes mean big differences. However, if the reference point is my nose and I’m trying to stay between two white lines and not hit anything, then the precision to which I need to know where things are may not need to be very precise as long as I have a little bit of leeway and still stay between the lines and leave enough room around the various objects to not hit them.
OK, safe driving requires only knowing where I am relative to objects around me to a moderate level of precision. I can do it in two ways… take the difference between two values: location of object and my location. The farther away the reference point, the more precise they will need to be if precision of the difference is to be maintained. Consequently, if the measurements are relative to my nose, the need for about as small as it can get.
Moreover, any precision data base lacks some “most” important values.. 1. a precise value for my location and 2. a precise value for anything around me that moves (meaning it wasn’t at its current location when the HD database was assembled). Required is the ability in real time to locate and track objects relative to me (my nose, the hood ornament of my car, ..) with only some precision These objects and their location aren’t included in these precise/HD databases. What is needed is a very reliable means of identifying objects and determining their position and velocity with little latency. This is absolutely necessary;uyr;y necessary for the moving objects, might as well do it also for the stationary objects. 😁 Alain
Please don’t suggest that one needs an HD map database in order to run their SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping) algorithm. That algorithm needs as input the relative position (sensor observations) of objects . The capability to determine those inputs is all that is needed to do collision avoidance, so don’t even bother going through the SLAM computation and certainly don’t pay for a reference data set.
Are self-driving cars safe? Highway regulator orders industry to cough up the data
R. Mitchell,
June 29,
"After years
of inaction,
the federal
government
will begin
collecting
crash data on
automated
vehicles.
The National
Highway
Traffic Safety
Administration
on Tuesday
ordered dozens
of car, truck
and technology
companies to
inform the
agency of a
serious crash
within a day
of learning
about it, with
a more
complete data
report due
after 10 days.
The order will
enable NHTSA
to "collect
information
necessary for
the agency to
play its role
in keeping
Americans safe
on the
roadways, even
as the
technology
deployed on
the nation's
roads
continues to
evolve," the
agency said.
The order
applies to
highly
automated
vehicles,
including
robotic cars
that don't
require a
human driver,
as well as
partially
automated
systems such
as Tesla's
Autopilot and
General
Motors' Super
Cruise with
advanced
cruise control
and automatic
steering.
It immediately
affects the
partially
automated
so-called
Level 2
systems
increasingly
common on new
vehicles from
most major
manufacturers.
The number of
fully robotic
cars and
trucks now
deployed on
public roads
is tiny, but
the market is
expected to
grow
dramatically
in coming
years.
Manufacturers
tout the
safety and
convenience of
automated
vehicles, but
scant useful
data have been
collected to
demonstrate
how safe they
are.
"This is very
important.
It's
fantastic. And
it's about
time," said
Alain
Kornhauser,
who heads the
automated
vehicle
engineering
program at
Princeton
University.
"Safety should
not be a
competition.
It's a
cooperation."...
"Nobody should
push back on
this,"
Princeton's
Kornhauser
said. "We
don't know
what we don't
know, we don't
know what
works and
doesn't work,
and this
allows us to
begin to know
that."..." [Read more](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-06-29/nhtsa-adas-crash-data) Hmmmm... I couldn't have said it
better myself.
😁 Alain
Self-Driving Cars Could Be Decades Away, No Matter What Elon Musk Said
C. Mims, June 5, “…” Read more Hmmmm… Not to be defensive, but I will be…
“In 2015, Elon Musk said self-driving cars that could drive “anywhere†would be here within two or three years.” … According to my definition, from day-one (>9 years ago), of my 3 (very) different types of SmartDrivingCars:
-
Safe-driving Cars (Automation of Collision Avoidance on cars that we drive all the time. Societal benefit is improved Safety),
-
Self-Driving Cars (Automation of Steering and Braking functions some of the time, in some places, but always requiring driver supervision. Societal benefit is Comfort & Convenience (and NOT any substantive Safety improvements), and
-
Driverless Cars able to go from some origins to some destinations at some times without a driver or attendant on board. Societal benefit is delivering affordable high-quality mobility for almost anyone (and some/many things), from those origin-destination-time combinations. (period! Again, safety is a floor, not a substantive value proposition.)
Elon delivers, every day, “self-driving Tesla” with his autoPilot and FSD features. They deliver very good “Comfort & Convenience” to Tesla owners as long as the driver continues to do their part… always supervise the Tesla’s automation. Cadillac also does it with its SuperCruise, Subaru with its EyeSight, Mercedes with its 997 package, and …
Automakers, Mad Men and modern day commercials seem to make it a habit to oversell and over promise. I admit, Elon may well be at the asymptotic limit of that distribution, but everyone knows that he’s way out there. We consider him entertainment, just as we consider all the money we loose on Fan Duel and in Vegas to be an entertainment expense. Caveat emptor
In 2016, Lyft CEO John Zimmer predicted they would “all but end†car ownership by 2025.
… Hopefully by then, that thought will be in at least some minds. Putting some blemish on what the Mad Men created as an absolute human desire would be a substantial achievement….
In 2018, Waymo CEO John Krafcik warned autonomous robocars would take longer than expected.
… Nothing wrong here…
In 2021, some experts aren’t sure when, if ever, individuals will be able to purchase steering-wheel-free cars that drive themselves off the lot….”
… From the beginning and continue today I argue that there is no market in the personal ownership of Driverless Cars. Why own it??? I can’t even drive it!!! Just to sit in my driveway??? I’m going to make it a business??? I’ll be the smallest businessman in the world, bearing on my shoulders the highest form of personal responsibility, the life & safety of my customer. NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!!
Also… please, not everyone promised anything. And I haven’t even mentioned Steve Schladover who has been stalwart in his efforts to advance this technology in a realistic context.
The Society of Automotive Engineers had, and continue to have, an opportunity to bring realism to this community by, at the very least, simply dropping any reference to anything called “Level 5”. If SAE wishes to be humble and brave, they can also apologize for even suggesting that Level 5’s “everywhere” could ever exist within the lifetimes of any current or soon to be member of SAE. By creating the category, SAE baited the Mad Men, Sunday Supplementers and Click-Bait folks into fantasizing something envisioned by a reputable, serious organization.
SAE, please edit your “Levels literature” by “whiting out” all reference to “Level 5” or adding after any Level 5 “NA”. While you’re at it, do it also for “Level 3” because that’s also a non-starter. Alain May 29, 2021
[The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming into Focus](https://www.dropbox.com/s/bpeklrq3sgutu1l/The-Dispatcher_June-2021.pdf?dl=0) M.
Sena, June
2021,
"...Mobility-as-a-service
would provide
the business
model to tie
everything
together,
perhaps as an
extension of
your
phone/broadband
subscription.
Private car
ownership
would soon be
a relic of a
bygone age.
This is an interesting narrative, but is not a correct one. Even before COVID-19 changed how people have been living outside of China since Friday, the 13th of March 2020, the picture of everything happening in high density cities was a rumor that companies like WEWORK spread to build their houses of cards. …
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to
start thinking
outside the
bus. If a city
is serious
about
providing a
useful bus
service, it
needs to run
them
everywhere and
often,
including at
night. It
must,
therefore, get
rid of cars
driving and
parking on its
streets. ..
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to
start thinking
outside the
bus. If a city
is serious
about
providing a
useful bus
service, it
needs to run
them
everywhere and
often,
including at
night. It
must,
therefore, get
rid of cars
driving and
parking on its
streets. ...
What cities
are doing
today all over
the world is
neither
providing an
adequate
service to
their citizens
nor using the
money
allocated for
transport in a
cost-effective
way...
Bite the bullet and get private cars off the big city streets
The reasons
that people
who live in
cities began
to buy cars
was that they
needed them to
get to their
jobs, the ones
that began
moving out of
the cities in
the ‘60s to
‘campuses’
where there
were no
transit links.
Then they
needed them to
drop off their
children to
day care
centers since
both parents
worked. Then
they needed
them to drop
off their
older
children...
As I said, it is not buses that will meet the need. Neither is it roads filled with taxis. There are taxis offering rides in Trenton and Scranton, but they are not replacing buses because they are too expensive and are often unavailable when demand for them is highest. The Uber/Lyft model can be better at meeting demand, but they are still too costly…”
Read more Hmmmm… Enjoy the whole issue. It is enormously well written! Also listen/watch the SDC Pod/Zoom Cast 216- below with Michael. Alain
[The Costly Pursuit of Self-Driving Cars Continues On. And On. And On.](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/24/technology/self-driving-cars-wait.html) C. Metz,
May 24, "...
So what went
wrong? Some
researchers
would say
nothing â€"
that’s how
science works.
You can’t
entirely
predict what
will happen in
an experiment.
...
It's not an
experiment if
you can
predict the
outcome. Why
bother doing
it???
More importantly, Mother Nature is involved and you don’t know what she is going to throw at you. Which is why simulations are not the complete answer… They’ll only regurgitate what you told them to do (which is somewhat useful because they implicate together the things that you thought you knew, giving you new insights.). The challenge is, She’s not involved in the simulation but She is every time you do it… But that’s life and that’s what makes it exiting and worth living…. The self-driving car project just happened to be one of the most hyped technology experiments of this century, occurring on streets all over the country and run by some of its highest-profile companies….
Self-driving tech is not yet nimble enough to reliably handle the variety of situations human drivers encounter each day. It can usually handle suburban Phoenix, but it can’t duplicate the human chutzpah needed for merging into the Lincoln Tunnel in New York or dashing for an offramp on Highway 101 in Los Angele … True! But getting it to work in the Nevada desert and then Pheonix is an enormous accomplishment. Frank didn’t just roll out of the womb and make it in New York. He also went through “..the blues…” where he could actually sing and be appreciated in the “..small towns…” before he made it in NYC. It took GM about ‘12 seconds’ to realize that the required human chutzpah was way to much to get started and they were outathere.
“If you look at almost every industry that is trying to solve really, really difficult technical challenges, the folks that tend to be involved are a little bit crazy and little bit optimistic,†he said. “You need to have that optimism to get up every day and bang your head against the wall to try to solve a problem that has never been solved, and it’s not guaranteed that it ever will be solved.†… Absolutely true. By definition! (I also like to say that you need to be fundamentally stupid; else, you would have known how hard it was going to be and you would have just played golf or video games in your parent’s basement…)
“These cars will be able to operate on a limited set of streets under a limited set of weather conditions at certain speeds,†said Jody Kelman, an executive at Lyft. “We will very safely be able to deploy these cars, but they won’t be able to go that many places.†… Yup!! There is absolutely nothing bad about that. Go someplace else. It doesn’t need to be much tougher that “Chandler”. It doesn’t really need to be any “bigger” than “Chandler”.
Waymo needs what Chandler doesn’t have.. Customers … Definition: folks whose quality-of-life can be substantially improved by what Waymo’s Technology can readily deliver today. )
That's the
market side of
this
initiative
that Silicon
Valley seems
to have
forgotten.
Cool
Technology
doesn't
happen, just
because it is
Technology.
Technology
happens
because it is
Cool. Cool is
the value
proposition,
not
Technology:
else we'd have
[Segways](https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/say-so-long-to-the-original-segway/)
and people
wearing [GoogleGlass](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/052115/how-why-google-glass-failed.asp)
all over the
place.
Assisted Driving (what I call Self-drivingCars, or, sorry, SAE Level 1 and Level 2, or Tesla AutoPilot) are Cool (That technology delivers Comfort and Convenience to those that can afford and wish to buy cars). The buyer/customer just relies, for the most part, that engineers are making sure that the Technology works. Customers demand that the Technology adds to what they already enjoy (Cool). Their attention span is really short. The “lipstick” wears off quickly.
For Driverless… not so much Cool in Chandler. Maybe as a fling, or a tale, but actually, the negatives, largely outweigh the positives, think GoogleGlass. Few move or stay in Chandler unless you have a car (~70% Households have 2 or more cars). ‘everyone’ has their own car. So while the Waymo technology might work in Chandler, it doesn’t have enough Waymophiles (customers for whom Waymo substantially improves what they already have for themselves) to make it a Go.
However, take “Trenton”. 70 % of the households have one or zero cars. Many more Trentonians have the opportunity to appreciate the incremental value that Waymo will bring to their lives. They will more easily become Waymophiles if Waymo delivers in Trenton what Waymo has well demonstrated the “Cool” that it can deliver in Chandler. Even if Waymo shuts down until the few roads that it uses are plowed the few times it snows in Trenton. Trenton is Waymos’s (Ford/Argo & GM/Cruise as well) “New York”.
In short… While Chandler is an ideal place for Waymo to start getting its Technology working, Trenton is a great place for them to deliver societal value, which is supposed to be the fundamental mission of these Google “X.Projects” … …”
...X’s primary
output
is
breakthrough
technologies
that have the
potential to transform
people’s
lives and
become large,
sustainable
businesses."
It is time that Waymo begins to take what they’ve accomplished and actually begin to deliver primary output. “Read more Hmmmm… Excellent. Comments in line above. Also Listen/Watch PodCast above. Alain
May 22, 2021
Why I Ride with Waymo: Mike Waymo One, May 13, “… I started taking it to work, and after crunching the numbers for gas, maintenance, insurance, upkeep, and owning a depreciating investment, it was pretty much a no-brainer that we really didn’t need two cars. I sold off my car and made Waymo my choice for commuting to and from work and for trips my wife and I need to take when the other is using our car…” Read more Hmmmm…This is really great that he “crunched the numbers” and found it to be “pretty much a no-brainer”, which is what every real Waymo customer in Chandler has to do to become a Waymo customer. One “doesn’t move to Chandler unless one has “two cars”. See slide 5: 70% of the households have 2 or more cars in Chandler, so most of the folks have had to do the math to become a customer. If Waymo offered the same service in Trenton, where 70% of the households have at most one car and 30% don’t have any, then it doesn’t take much number crunching to appreciate Waymo when walking is the next best way to go.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the “easiest” ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
May 15, 2021
Autonomous Vehicles: A Framework for Deployment and Safety R. Diamond, May 13, “Join SAFE for an event focused on the importance of autonomous vehicles to our national and economic security and outlining pathways for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles.
The event will
feature
remarks from
Dr. Steve
Cliff, Acting
Administrator
of NHTSA, a
discussion
between
industry
leaders, and
the release of
a report, "A
Regulatory
Framework for
AV Safety," by
O. Kevin
Vincent,
Associate
General
Counsel,
Regulatory at
Lucid...." [Read more](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efcOl4QT4vg) Hmmmm... A must watch,
complemented
by the [Vincent report](https://www.dropbox.com/s/v7d50nlj2k3o2ud/Kevin-Vincent-Regulatory-Framework.pdf?dl=0) and
our latest [PodCast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biRYIW1ULCo) below.
Alain
May 8, 2021 [Why has’t Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here’s my theory](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/why-hasnt-waymo-expanded-its-driverless-service-heres-my-theory/)
###
T. Lee, May 7,
"Suburban
ride-hailing
is a lousy
business to be
in.
Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver’s seat.
And then...
nothing. Seven
months later,
Waymo has
neither
expanded the
footprint of
the Phoenix
service nor
has it
announced a
timeline for
launching in a
second city.
It's as if
Steve Jobs had
unveiled the
iPhone,
shipped a few
thousand
phones to an
Apple Store in
Phoenix, and
then didn't
ship any more
for
monthsâ€"and
wouldn't
explain why.
Last Friday,
two Waymo
employees [participated in an "ask me anything" thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/n031vq/you_voted_and_were_excited_to_chat_about_waymo/) on
the
SelfDrivingCars
subreddit, a
watering hole
for
self-driving
industry
insiders.
Questions
about
expansion
plans
dominated the
conversation.
"How are you
going to
scale?" one
redditor
asked. "What
are the
impediments to
service
expansion at
this time?"
The Waymonauts
responded with
maddening
generalities.
"We feel the
same urgency
to scale
quickly that
others do, but
a ton of work
goes into
doing it
safely," wrote
Waymo's Sam
Kansara." [Read more](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/why-hasnt-waymo-expanded-its-driverless-service-heres-my-theory/) Hmmmm... Not at all surprising.
Can you
imagine trying
to be better
than one's own
Land Rover or
Porsche in car
country. That
is a heavy
lift. Making
it heavier is
the focus on
today's most
entitled
yuppies.
That's as bad
as the
original focus
of driverless
cars on
1%ers. Waymos
are pure and
simple
mobility
machines to
get you
from/to places
horizontally,
just as
elevators do
vertically ...
just get you
up to the "8th
floor". Why
are elevators
so successful
at what they
do?... Second
best is the
stairwell!
They win all
the time,
hands down.
In Chandler, the “stairwell” is your car parked in your garage. You don’t even have to go outside in all that heat. Waymo’s got to be really good to beat that! Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances “slim-to-none”. Not that the car in the garage doesn’t have an enormous amount of “excess baggage”. Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it. When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car. Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live. That’s a challenging market place for Waymo. It’s worse than Bing v Google
A better place for Waymo ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service. The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car. Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don’t have access to one. Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach “the eighth floor”; which, once they can using Waymo, would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.
Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that’s arguably the last place for Waymo to go. However, the census identifies many communities and “inner suburbs” that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household. For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice. Numerous Trenton residents would readily perceive Waymo as the “Google” in their trip mode-choice.
Another note… trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool’s gambit. Since Waymos don’t misbehave, it is “easy” to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about. Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director,
Transportation
Program
Faculty Chair,
Princeton
Autonomous
Vehicle
Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton
University
Princeton, NJ
609-258-4657
(o)
609-980-1427
(c)