9.25 - FT
2, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;">25th edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race
J. Thornhill, June 24, "Brimming with epic successes and spectacular failures, the early history of the motor car industry offers clues about its future, too. As so often during technological revolutions, initial bursts of fast and furious experimentation by wild-eyed pioneers are followed by waves of industry consolidation by more sober corporate types.
So it was in the US from the 1890s, when scores of obsessive entrepreneurs launched the modern auto industry. Over the next few decades they founded hundreds of companies manufacturing thousands of different models. In the words of one historian, these dedicated enthusiasts competed in a "drastically Darwinian" world and seemed to prefer "to go broke making automobiles than get rich doing anything else", a tune which resonates again today.
But the development of capital-intensive mass manufacturing methods, the Great Depression and the second world war thinned out the competition. By 1950, the industry was dominated by just three giant corporations: General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, which between them accounted for about three-quarters of global production.
Today, the car industry is opening up once again to new entrants amid another technological convulsion as electric and connected vehicles — and maybe eventually autonomous cars — replace combustion engine motors driven by humans. As this revolution unfolds, we are seeing another burst of creative competition as entrepreneurial start-ups and tech companies flood into the market. ...
The industry's dream is to create an attractive and reliable $25,000 electric car that overcomes range anxiety. As Alain Kornhauser, a professor at Princeton University, says, the winners will be those who can build cars that appeal to everyday drivers as well as the "greasers and truckers". "It's all about the sociology, not the technology," he adds.
In other words, it will be, as it has always been throughout history, the customer who decides." Read more
Hmmmm... Same for Driverless AVs. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221,
Zoom-Cast Episode 221 w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox
F. Fishkin, July 1, "With Zoox…the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company's vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more. "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
SmartDrivingCars
Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220 w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times
F. Fishkin, July 1, "Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That's a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill...who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that...plus Tesla...autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu. "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
Why Am I Being Stopped?
S.Talbot, July 2," Transportation planning must include addressing what happens in a traffic stop. This July 4th holiday weekend millions of travelers will take to the road to visit family and friends in celebration of the Independence holiday. Tens of thousands of them will be stopped by a vehicle and traffic law enforcement officer. A vehicle and traffic stop by law enforcement can be a dangerous sometimes scary event for both the law enforcement officer and motorist alike.
Who confronts us - do they look like us, are they from our neighborhood - and how we are confronted by the authority of the police often figures into the ultimate outcome of the stop.
In today's age of ready cellphone recording, we do not have to look far to see stops that show outrageous behavior by officer and/or the driver/rider of the stopped vehicle. Too often the level and tone of the officer from the inception of the interaction is a raised voice, dictatorial and condescending. That, however, does not make the motorist correct if their response is to ignore directives from the police and or be disrespectful in return. It is a recipe for disaster... " Read more
Hmmmm...Very pertinent and timely article. I'd go even farther. It is time that we completely rethink traffic stops. We have technology and real-time information that can keep drivers from mis-behaving and allow cops to catch criminals. We need to start over with a clean sheet of paper. Alain
The auto industry is distancing itself from Tesla in response to new crash reporting rule
A. Hawkins, June 30, "The auto industry is holding its fire — for now — over the new requirement to report crashes involving vehicles equipped with partially and fully autonomous driving systems. But automakers are also distancing themselves from the company that appears to be the primary target of the new rule: Tesla.
The rule, issued yesterday by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, requires companies like Tesla and Alphabet's Waymo to report incidents involving driver assistance and autonomous systems within one day of learning of a crash, a major change that signals a tougher stance by regulators....." Read more
Hmmmm... I continue to interpret NHTSA's crash reporting requirement to extend to cars having Automated Emergency Braking. It should also include those with Electronic Stability Control (how well do those systems really work??) . This would encompass all new cars manufactured since 2012.
We all need to do a much better job in the design and implementation of each and every electronic driver assistance subsystem. Alain
Tesla (TSLA) announces record deliveries in Q2 2021: 201,000 electric cars
F. Lambert, July 2, "Tesla has confirmed that it managed to build 206,421 vehicles and deliver 201,250 electric cars in Q2 2021 – a new record for the electric automaker.
As we previously reported, the expectations for Tesla this quarter were kind of all over the place since it has been known that the company was facing some important supply chain challenges in Q2.
Delays in bringing the new Model S to market created a backlog at the end of the quarter, and on top of that, over 10,000 vehicles were put on a containment hold in May, which delayed many deliveries until Tesla was able to push its new computer vision system.
It resulted in June and especially the very end of the quarter potentially making a very important difference in the overall delivery results for the quarter...." Read more
Hmmmm... Very impressive. Teslas continue to be bought by customers while others, not so much. Alain
AutonomouStuff June 2021 News: Testing functional safety for autonomous vehicles
B. Hambrick June 30, "...Achieving functional safety with integrity means ensuring the absence of unreasonable risks due to hazards caused by a malfunction in any of the solution's sub-systems and components. This means all possible malfunctions and their associated risks must be taken into consideration during the design stage. Every component of a system must be verified, validated and certified to these possibilities for users to be confident in its application.
This blog post introduces the design and process concepts and approach used for positioning technology to achieve the appropriate functional safety within autonomous vehicles. This includes how the components and sub-systems of autonomous vehicles are tested and the role integrity plays when developing safety certified positioning solutions...." Read more
Hmmmm... Very nice. Alain
A Tesla Model S Plaid caught fire in Pennsylvania, briefly trapping the driver inside
F. Lambert, July 2, "A high-end Tesla Model S Plaid caught fire Tuesday night in Haverford, Pennsylvania, briefly trapping the driver inside, according to the local fire department. A lawyer for the owner said the vehicle "spontaneously combusted."
Firefighters from both the Gladwyne and Lower Merion Fire Departments arrived on the scene shortly before 9PM ET on Tuesday. The firefighters, who had been trained on how to respond to battery fires involving Tesla vehicles, "laid a 5 inch supply line into the scene so that we could keep a continual water stream on the fire to extinguish the fire and cool the batteries down to ensure complete extinguishment," according to a statement from the Gladwyne Fire Department. The driver managed to escape and there were no injuries reported..." Read more
Hmmmm... I hope that Tesla and the whole EV initiative isn't beginning to experience a Hindenburg moment. Alain
Hydrogen Buses Are the Driving Force Behind Fuel Cell Vehicles, Says Information Trends
Info Trend, July 1, " Close to 600 thousand hydrogen fuel cell buses and minibuses will be in service by 2035, according to a market research study published by Information Trends (www.informationtrends.com). The study, "Global Market for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Buses," covers hydrogen buses and other public road transportation vehicles...." Read more
Hmmmm... Whew! Another "will be" extrapolated from a "NFT". Building one's future on top of the Hindenburg, Apollo 13 and buses seems like a substantial challenge. Alain
Tesla Vision-powered active safety features found to be at least as good as with radar in new test
F. Lambert, July 1, "Tesla's active safety features powered by its new Tesla Vision computer vision system without radar are proving to be at least as good as radar in a new independent test.
When Tesla announced the transition to its "Tesla Vision" Autopilot without radar, it warned that it would result in limitations of some Autopilot features at first. It didn't really affect Tesla's major active safety features powered by Autopilot, but Consumer Reports and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) both pulled their top safety rating picks for Tesla's Model 3 as they believed the active safety features to be gone.
Today, they have reinstated the ratings after the latter tested them on the new Model 3 and found that the active safety features were at least just as good without radar.
IIHS wrote: "IIHS has completed tests of the 2021 Tesla Model 3's new camera-based front crash prevention system, which rates superior for vehicle-to-vehicle interactions and advanced for pedestrian interactions."..." Read more
Hmmmm... Well done, Elon. The issue remains as to how the software is identifying objects in the lane ahead and reliably computing the free space under (and over) the detected stationary object.
I suspect that the biggest issue with radar that Elon was addressing was Radar's unreliability in the determination of that free space. This is a critical value to determine if you can safely pass under (or over) a stationary object detected ahead. Most stationary objects detected ahead can be readily passed under (overpasses, signs, tree canopies, ...) (or passed over (small debris, small trash, speed bumps, ...))... except when they happen to be a tree truck (because you were showing off and hopped in the back seat), blunt end on a NJ Barrier (because the lane makings were so poor that they guided you in that direction). parked fire truck (because the car you were following changed lanes to avoid hitting that parked firetruck and it suddenly appeared "out of nowhere" sitting in your lane ahead). Because these situations occur so infrequently and "radar" "often" can't/doesn't provide information in a way where the free space under an object can be determined, the software simply goes with the more prevalent... assumes that the object ahead can be passed under and, should it be wrong, the driver, who is supposed to be alert, will readily determine that they'd better apply the brakes; else, a crash will occur. These are not driverless cars, irrespective of what you might have though Elon might have said. You, the driver, is responsible, in the end, to keep you from crashing. NOT Elon. He may have provided a few things that work most of the time, but NONE work ALL the time.
Nice system. Removing radar may well have been a good call. Given all the data that NHTSA is going to collect on all of these crashes of vehicles with and now without radar, it will be very interesting the limitations of not only each of these sensors, but also the software that uses the data from these sensors to figure out when and how hard to hit the brakes.
P.S. If LiDar doesn't do a substantially better job of helping to determine free-space under stationary objects ahead, it is very unlikely to be worth even a penny. Alain
Eviation's 'Tesla of aircraft' production version unveiled with over 400 miles of range
F. Lambert, July 1, "Eviation, which has been described as the "Tesla of aircraft" for working on the first compelling long-range electric aircraft, has unveiled the production version of its Alice aircraft.
It has a shorter range than previously announced...Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has revealed having his own design for a VTOL electric plane, says that such a system becomes possible once battery energy density reaches over 400 Wh/kg, while his Tesla vehicles are believed to be currently powered by battery cells with 250 to 300 Wh/kg.
Battery technology is improving at a rapid pace, and many prototype battery cells have claimed to have reached the 400 Wh/kg barrier.
It boasted a range of up to 600 miles (965 km) and a capacity of up to nine passengers, making it viable for some short-haul regional airlines."Read more
Hmmmm...Issue.. What is the fuel cost for a 300 mile trip? Easy to automate, so labor cost is "Zero". How much are these? Might get 6 legs a day at a load factor of 67% (AVO = 6)... 36 passengers/day... 10,000 passenger miles per day. Revenue @ $0.25/PassMile only give one $2,500/day to pay for amortization, maintenance and electricity. 300 operating days per year might allow you to lease these @ $0.5M/year Are they going to be that cheap to make safe? (I've assumed they are crew-less). Alain
Tesla Supercharger station gets direct service from McDonald's: get a Big Mac while charging?
F. Lambert, July 1, "A Tesla Supercharger station is now getting direct service from a nearby McDonald's that offers direct delivery to Tesla owners charging their electric vehicles. When charging station operators open new stations, they try to build them near amenities for drivers to use when their vehicles are charging.
We are mainly talking about restrooms, coffee shops, and restaurants...." Read more
Hmmmm...I So much for Range Anxiety. Only problem now will be heart-burn and obesity. 😁 Alain
More On....
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Poser'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines" . See slides, See video
Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain
0, 0);">Annual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.
Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April 18, "“It’s time to hit the start button,†is Fred Fishkin’s succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times’ Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen â€" Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to “the Trentons of the World.â€
Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,....." Read more
Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle's Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
15th Session Making it Happen - Part One: Elected Officials' Role in Creating a Welcoming Environment in the Trentons of this World
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
Michael Sena's Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021"Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the "Trentons" of this World"
Orf467F20_FinalReport "Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System" Kornhauser & He, March 2021 "AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative"
C'mon Man!(These folks didn't get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
The 2021 TRB Annual
Automated Road Transportation Symposium
Virtual on July 12-15, 2021
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Fall 2021 Live in Person Tentaively: November 2 (evening) -> 4, 2021
Georgia, serif;">
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean's AV Research Group at U of Texas
and
The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, "Recordings from the conference:
Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: (Cybersecurity): https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY
Session 3: (Automated Driving Systems): https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc
Session 4: (Communications for ADS) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso
Hmmmm... Russ, thank you for sharing! Alain
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 219, Zoom-Cast Episode 219 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, June 29 , "Why couldn't a smart driving car prevent Alain's crash with a deer? How important is exact location for highly automated driving? And NHTSA wants reports on all automated vehicle system crashes. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 218, Zoom-Cast Episode 218 w/Xinfeng Le, Waymo Product Manager
F. Fishkin, June 10 , "Have questions about Waymo’s partnership with JB Hunt to test autonomous trucks in Texas? So do we…and Waymo’s Product Manager, Xinfeng Le joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to provide answers. Plus.. Waymo raises 2 and a half billion dollars, MacKenzie Scott gives away billions, start-up Waabi comes out of stealth, Argo AI plans an IPO and more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 217, Zoom-Cast Episode 217 w/Christorpher Mims, Columnist, Wall Street Journal
F. Fishkin, June 7 , "Are self-driving cars still decades ahead? Wall Street Jopurnal columnist and author Christopher Mims joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the progress and roadblocks. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, the dramatic rise in road deaths during Covid and more. "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 216, Zoom-Cast Episode 216 w/Michael Sena, editor The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 28 , "The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming Into Focus. That's on top in the June edition of The Dispatcher. From Sweden, publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus better batteries, May Mobility, Tesla and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 215, Zoom-Cast Episode 215 w/Cade Metz, Correspondent, NY Times & Ken Pyle, editor, Viodi.com
F. Fishkin, May 27 , "The Costly Pursuit of Self Driving Cars Continues On and On and On. That's the headline of a NY Times story this week. The reporter, Cade Metz, also the author of a new book on artificial intelligence, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Ken Pyle of Viodi View.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 214, Zoom-Cast Episode 214
F. Fishkin, May 23 , "An interview with the chief engineer behind Ford's F150 Lightning EV truck...Waymo shares rider stories and the AFL-CIO tells Congress autonomous vehicles should be required to have human operators. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America's Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , "The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America's Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM,
TuSimple and
more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too. "..
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America's Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , "The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America's Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM,
TuSimple and
more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too.. https://youtu.be/Z6NBRrtTDnI "
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212 w/Ken Pyle
F. Fishkin, May 8 , "Where does Waymo go from here? Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles? Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211 w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 1 , "There's plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense...and what doesn't. Plus #Tesla, #Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. ..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210 w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron'23
F. Fishkin, April 26 , "Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from
Elon​
Musk's The Boring Company. Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton's Alain .."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209 w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.
F. Fishkin, April , "The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208 w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo
F. Fishkin, April 18, "What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo...some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207 w/Selika Josiah Talbott
F. Fishkin, April 10 , "When a driverless vehicle crashes...what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206 w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
F. Fishkin, April 2, "When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles? How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome? Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205 w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher. President, MLSena Consulting
F. Fishkin, March 26, "Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities. So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more...on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars..."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, ".With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker's new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table...and a look at the future of auto insurance.."
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser
F. Fishkin, March 13, ".GM's move to transform auto insurance through OnStar Insurance: Is it a win, win for all? Is adaptive cruise control prompting some drivers to speed? And what does Tesla really mean by "full self driving"? Just some of the questions tackled in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202, Zoom-Cast Episode 202 President & CEO, RoadDB
F. Fishkin, March 3, "When will we be able to purchase cars that can largely drive themselves? It may not be long...but don't expect to vacate the driver's seat. That's the view of entrepreneur, tech pioneer and RoadDB CEO Russ Shields. He takes an in depth look at where we are and where we're headed with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201, Zoom-Cast Episode 201 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Feb. 26, "Smarter cars need smarter assembly...and location matters. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at that, politics, climate and carmakers...plus Tesla, Velodyne, Foxconn and more.." SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200, Zoom-Cast Episode 200 w/Edwin Olsen, CEO, May Mobility
F. Fishkin, Feb. 22, "How May Mobility is building confidence in autonomous transportation and creating a road map for growth through the pandemic and beyond. CEO and co-founder Edwin Olson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more."
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
June 28, 2021
How Important is Exact Localization for HAD? M. Sena, July/Aug. '21, "In this issue of The Dispatcher for July and August, I have taken up a subject in the lead article that has been on my list for quite some time. It is of how cars that drive themselves keep themselves on the road while they make their journey to their destination. It turns out that there is a very good reason why Teslas crash and Waymo is running around only in Chandler, Arizona after people who didn't know better promised that there would be completely driverless cars on all roads a decade ago: localization of a moving vehicle is very, very hard, even for a human.
I encourage you to read Musings this month. It's about making the journey to a world without climate change protests, a world where they either won't be necessary or allowed. On most journeys, we have to cross bridges. Sometimes we have to make them ourselves. Think of the article as the first bridge to cross toward a better understanding of the climate change journey.
Dispatch Central contains, as usual, something for everyone. Insurance is addressed in the two main articles. In Bits and Pieces I have added my thoughts on recent events.
This is a double issue, in part because we are going to try to do more this summer than we could do last. But it's also because I need some extra time to work on a follow-up to the Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit with Professor Alain Kornhauser. There was a concrete proposal put forward by Professor Kornhauser during the last session, and many of us who took part in the Summit have committed to try to work on implementing that proposal. Read more
Hmmmm... . Once again an outstanding The Dispatcher. I happen to have a diffent fundamental view on"exact localization" than Michael, many and possibly even everyone else... As usual, I'll take a very self-centered view... I've lived my whole life without knowing (or caring to know) my "exact location". I've been satisfied to know: "sort of... where am I?" but exact...where am I? ... not so much. What troubles me about the "exact where am I" is that this exactness is in some coordinate system. Where is the origin of that coordinate system and is moving? Oh, it's the "center" of the earth?? Or some "reference point". So "exact" is actually, "exact relative to some reference point. Little seems to ever be said about the "exactness" of the reference point, but that may actually be some saving grace about "exact".. it is "exact" relative to some reference point.
I see.. If the reference point is the center of the Universe, then I'd better be really-really precise; else, small small changes mean big-big differences. If the reference is the center of the earth, then I may just need to be really precise; else, small changes mean big differences. However, if the reference point is my nose and I'm trying to stay between two white lines and not hit anything, then the precision to which I need to know where things are may not need to be very precise as long as I have a little bit of leeway and still stay between the lines and leave enough room around the various objects to not hit them.
OK, safe driving requires only knowing where I am relative to objects around me to a moderate level of precision. I can do it in two ways... take the difference between two values: location of object and my location. The farther away the reference point, the more precise they will need to be if precision of the difference is to be maintained. Consequently, if the measurements are relative to my nose, the need for about as small as it can get.
Moreover, any precision data base lacks some "most" important values.. 1. a precise value for my location and 2. a precise value for anything around me that moves (meaning it wasn't at its current location when the HD database was assembled). Required is the ability in real time to locate and track objects relative to me (my nose, the hood ornament of my car, ..) with only some precision These objects and their location aren't included in these precise/HD databases. What is needed is a very reliable means of identifying objects and determining their position and velocity with little latency. This is absolutely necessary;uyr;y necessary for the moving objects, might as well do it also for the stationary objects. 😁 Alain
Please don't suggest that one needs an HD map database in order to run their SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping) algorithm. That algorithm needs as input the relative position (sensor observations) of objects . The capability to determine those inputs is all that is needed to do collision avoidance, so don't even bother going through the SLAM computation and certainly don't pay for a reference data set.
Are self-driving cars safe? Highway regulator orders industry to cough up the data
R. Mitchell, June 29, "After years of inaction, the federal government will begin collecting crash data on automated vehicles.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on Tuesday ordered dozens of car, truck and technology companies to inform the agency of a serious crash within a day of learning about it, with a more complete data report due after 10 days.
The order will enable NHTSA to "collect information necessary for the agency to play its role in keeping Americans safe on the roadways, even as the technology deployed on the nation's roads continues to evolve," the agency said.
The order applies to highly automated vehicles, including robotic cars that don't require a human driver, as well as partially automated systems such as Tesla's Autopilot and General Motors' Super Cruise with advanced cruise control and automatic steering.
It immediately affects the partially automated so-called Level 2 systems increasingly common on new vehicles from most major manufacturers. The number of fully robotic cars and trucks now deployed on public roads is tiny, but the market is expected to grow dramatically in coming years.
Manufacturers tout the safety and convenience of automated vehicles, but scant useful data have been collected to demonstrate how safe they are.
"This is very important. It's fantastic. And it's about time," said Alain Kornhauser, who heads the automated vehicle engineering program at Princeton University. "Safety should not be a competition. It's a cooperation."...
"Nobody should push back on this," Princeton's Kornhauser said. "We don't know what we don't know, we don't know what works and doesn't work, and this allows us to begin to know that."..." Read more
Hmmmm... I couldn't have said it better myself. 😁 Alain
Self-Driving Cars Could Be Decades Away, No Matter What Elon Musk Said
C. Mims, June 5, "..." Read more
Hmmmm... Not to be defensive, but I will be...
"In 2015, Elon Musk said self-driving cars that could drive “anywhere†would be here within two or three years." ... According to my definition, from day-one (>9 years ago), of my 3 (very) different types of SmartDrivingCars:
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Safe-driving Cars (Automation of Collision Avoidance on cars that we drive all the time. Societal benefit is improved Safety),
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Self-Driving Cars (Automation of Steering and Braking functions some of the time, in some places, but always requiring driver supervision. Societal benefit is Comfort & Convenience (and NOT any substantive Safety improvements), and
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Driverless Cars able to go from some origins to some destinations at some times without a driver or attendant on board. Societal benefit is delivering affordable high-quality mobility for almost anyone (and some/many things), from those origin-destination-time combinations. (period! Again, safety is a floor, not a substantive value proposition.)
Elon delivers, every day, "self-driving Tesla" with his autoPilot and FSD features. They deliver very good "Comfort & Convenience" to Tesla owners as long as the driver continues to do their part... always supervise the Tesla's automation. Cadillac also does it with its SuperCruise, Subaru with its EyeSight, Mercedes with its 997 package, and ...
Automakers, Mad Men and modern day commercials seem to make it a habit to oversell and over promise. I admit, Elon may well be at the asymptotic limit of that distribution, but everyone knows that he's way out there. We consider him entertainment, just as we consider all the money we loose on Fan Duel and in Vegas to be an entertainment expense. Caveat emptor
In 2016, Lyft CEO John Zimmer predicted they would “all but end†car ownership by 2025.
... Hopefully by then, that thought will be in at least some minds. Putting some blemish on what the Mad Men created as an absolute human desire would be a substantial achievement....
In 2018, Waymo CEO John Krafcik warned autonomous robocars would take longer than expected.
... Nothing wrong here...
In 2021, some experts aren’t sure when, if ever, individuals will be able to purchase steering-wheel-free cars that drive themselves off the lot...."
... From the beginning and continue today I argue that there is no market in the personal ownership of Driverless Cars. Why own it??? I can't even drive it!!! Just to sit in my driveway??? I'm going to make it a business??? I'll be the smallest businessman in the world, bearing on my shoulders the highest form of personal responsibility, the life & safety of my customer. NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!!
Also... please, not everyone promised anything. And I haven't even mentioned Steve Schladover who has been stalwart in his efforts to advance this technology in a realistic context.
The Society of Automotive Engineers had, and continue to have, an opportunity to bring realism to this community by, at the very least, simply dropping any reference to anything called "Level 5". If SAE wishes to be humble and brave, they can also apologize for even suggesting that Level 5's "everywhere" could ever exist within the lifetimes of any current or soon to be member of SAE. By creating the category, SAE baited the Mad Men, Sunday Supplementers and Click-Bait folks into fantasizing something envisioned by a reputable, serious organization.
SAE, please edit your "Levels literature" by "whiting out" all reference to "Level 5" or adding after any Level 5 "NA". While you're at it, do it also for "Level 3" because that's also a non-starter. Alain May 29, 2021
The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming into Focus M. Sena, June 2021, "...Mobility-as-a-service would provide the business model to tie everything together, perhaps as an extension of your phone/broadband subscription. Private car ownership would soon be a relic of a bygone age.
This is an interesting narrative, but is not a correct one. Even before COVID-19 changed how people have been living outside of China since Friday, the 13th of March 2020, the picture of everything happening in high density cities was a rumor that companies like WEWORK spread to build their houses of cards. ...
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ..
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ... What cities are doing today all over the world is neither providing an adequate service to their citizens nor using the money allocated for transport in a cost-effective way...
Bite the bullet and get private cars off the big city streets
The reasons that people who live in cities began to buy cars was that they needed them to get to their jobs, the ones that began moving out of the cities in the ‘60s to ‘campuses’ where there were no transit links. Then they needed them to drop off their children to day care centers since both parents worked. Then they needed them to drop off their older children...
As I said, it is not buses that will meet the need. Neither is it roads filled with taxis. There are taxis offering rides in Trenton and Scranton, but they are not replacing buses because they are too expensive and are often unavailable when demand for them is highest. The Uber/Lyft model can be better at meeting demand, but they are still too costly..."
Hmmmm... Enjoy the whole issue. It is enormously well written! Also listen/watch the SDC Pod/Zoom Cast 216- below with Michael. Alain
The Costly Pursuit of Self-Driving Cars Continues On. And On. And On. C. Metz, May 24, "... So what went wrong? Some researchers would say nothing â€" that’s how science works. You can’t entirely predict what will happen in an experiment. ... It's not an experiment if you can predict the outcome. Why bother doing it???
More importantly, Mother Nature is involved and you don't know what she is going to throw at you. Which is why simulations are not the complete answer... They'll only regurgitate what you told them to do (which is somewhat useful because they implicate together the things that you thought you knew, giving you new insights.). The challenge is, She's not involved in the simulation but She is every time you do it... But that's life and that's what makes it exiting and worth living.... The self-driving car project just happened to be one of the most hyped technology experiments of this century, occurring on streets all over the country and run by some of its highest-profile companies....
Self-driving tech is not yet nimble enough to reliably handle the variety of situations human drivers encounter each day. It can usually handle suburban Phoenix, but it can’t duplicate the human chutzpah needed for merging into the Lincoln Tunnel in New York or dashing for an offramp on Highway 101 in Los Angele ... True! But getting it to work in the Nevada desert and then Pheonix is an enormous accomplishment. Frank didn't just roll out of the womb and make it in New York. He also went through "..the blues..." where he could actually sing and be appreciated in the "..small towns..." before he made it in NYC. It took GM about '12 seconds' to realize that the required human chutzpah was way to much to get started and they were outathere.
“If you look at almost every industry that is trying to solve really, really difficult technical challenges, the folks that tend to be involved are a little bit crazy and little bit optimistic,†he said. “You need to have that optimism to get up every day and bang your head against the wall to try to solve a problem that has never been solved, and it’s not guaranteed that it ever will be solved.†... Absolutely true. By definition! (I also like to say that you need to be fundamentally stupid; else, you would have known how hard it was going to be and you would have just played golf or video games in your parent's basement...)
“These cars will be able to operate on a limited set of streets under a limited set of weather conditions at certain speeds,†said Jody Kelman, an executive at Lyft. “We will very safely be able to deploy these cars, but they won’t be able to go that many places.†... Yup!! There is absolutely nothing bad about that. Go someplace else. It doesn't need to be much tougher that "Chandler". It doesn't really need to be any "bigger" than "Chandler".
Waymo needs what Chandler doesn't have.. Customers ... Definition: folks whose quality-of-life can be substantially improved by what Waymo's Technology can readily deliver today. )
That's the market side of this initiative that Silicon Valley seems to have forgotten. Cool Technology doesn't happen, just because it is Technology. Technology happens because it is Cool. Cool is the value proposition, not Technology: else we'd have Segways and people wearing GoogleGlass all over the place.
Assisted Driving (what I call Self-drivingCars, or, sorry, SAE Level 1 and Level 2, or Tesla AutoPilot) are Cool (That technology delivers Comfort and Convenience to those that can afford and wish to buy cars). The buyer/customer just relies, for the most part, that engineers are making sure that the Technology works. Customers demand that the Technology adds to what they already enjoy (Cool). Their attention span is really short. The "lipstick" wears off quickly.
For Driverless... not so much Cool in Chandler. Maybe as a fling, or a tale, but actually, the negatives, largely outweigh the positives, think GoogleGlass. Few move or stay in Chandler unless you have a car (~70% Households have 2 or more cars). 'everyone' has their own car. So while the Waymo technology might work in Chandler, it doesn't have enough Waymophiles (customers for whom Waymo substantially improves what they already have for themselves) to make it a Go.
However, take "Trenton". 70 % of the households have one or zero cars. Many more Trentonians have the opportunity to appreciate the incremental value that Waymo will bring to their lives. They will more easily become Waymophiles if Waymo delivers in Trenton what Waymo has well demonstrated the "Cool" that it can deliver in Chandler. Even if Waymo shuts down until the few roads that it uses are plowed the few times it snows in Trenton. Trenton is Waymos's (Ford/Argo & GM/Cruise as well) "New York".
In short... While Chandler is an ideal place for Waymo to start getting its Technology working, Trenton is a great place for them to deliver societal value, which is supposed to be the fundamental mission of these Google "X.Projects" ... ..."
...X’s primary output is breakthrough technologies that have the potential to transform people’s lives and become large, sustainable businesses."
It is time that Waymo begins to take what they've accomplished and actually begin to deliver primary output. "Read more
Hmmmm... Excellent. Comments in line above. Also Listen/Watch PodCast above. Alain
May 22, 2021
Why I Ride with Waymo: Mike Waymo One, May 13, "... I started taking it to work, and after crunching the numbers for gas, maintenance, insurance, upkeep, and owning a depreciating investment, it was pretty much a no-brainer that we really didn't need two cars. I sold off my car and made Waymo my choice for commuting to and from work and for trips my wife and I need to take when the other is using our car..." Read more.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the "easiest" ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
May 15, 2021
Autonomous Vehicles: A Framework for Deployment and Safety R. Diamond, May 13, "Join SAFE for an event focused on the importance of autonomous vehicles to our national and economic security and outlining pathways for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles.
The event will feature remarks from Dr. Steve Cliff, Acting Administrator of NHTSA, a discussion between industry leaders, and the release of a report, "A Regulatory Framework for AV Safety," by O. Kevin Vincent, Associate General Counsel, Regulatory at Lucid...." Read more
Hmmmm... A must watch, complemented by the Vincent report and our latest PodCast below. Alain
May 8, 2021 Why has’t Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here’s my theory
T. Lee, May 7, "Suburban ride-hailing is a lousy business to be in.
Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver's seat.
And then... nothing. Seven months later, Waymo has neither expanded the footprint of the Phoenix service nor has it announced a timeline for launching in a second city.
It's as if Steve Jobs had unveiled the iPhone, shipped a few thousand phones to an Apple Store in Phoenix, and then didn't ship any more for monthsâ€"and wouldn't explain why.
Last Friday, two Waymo employees participated in an "ask me anything" thread on the SelfDrivingCars subreddit, a watering hole for self-driving industry insiders. Questions about expansion plans dominated the conversation.
"How are you going to scale?" one redditor asked. "What are the impediments to service expansion at this time?"
The Waymonauts responded with maddening generalities.
"We feel the same urgency to scale quickly that others do, but a ton of work goes into doing it safely," wrote Waymo's Sam Kansara." Read more
Hmmmm... Not at all surprising. Can you imagine trying to be better than one's own Land Rover or Porsche in car country. That is a heavy lift. Making it heavier is the focus on today's most entitled yuppies. That's as bad as the original focus of driverless cars on 1%ers. Waymos are pure and simple mobility machines to get you from/to places horizontally, just as elevators do vertically ... just get you up to the "8th floor". Why are elevators so successful at what they do?... Second best is the stairwell! They win all the time, hands down.
In Chandler, the "stairwell" is your car parked in your garage. You don't even have to go outside in all that heat. Waymo's got to be really good to beat that! Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances "slim-to-none". Not that the car in the garage doesn't have an enormous amount of "excess baggage". Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it. When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car. Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live. That's a challenging market place for Waymo. It's worse than Bing v Google
A better place for Waymo ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service. The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car. Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don't have access to one. Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach "the eighth floor"; which, once they can using Waymo, would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.
Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that's arguably the last place for Waymo to go. However, the census identifies many communities and "inner suburbs" that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household. For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice. Numerous Trenton residents would readily perceive Waymo as the "Google" in their trip mode-choice.
Another note... trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool's gambit. Since Waymos don't misbehave, it is "easy" to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about. Alain
Link to previous SDC eLetters
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
alaink@princeton.edu
609-258-4657 (o)
609-980-1427 (c)