2021-07-11
July 11, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;”>26th edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Tesla Says Autopilot Makes Its Cars Safer. Crash Victims Say It Kills.
Neal Boudette, July 5, “ Benjamin Maldonado and his teenage son were driving back from a soccer tournament on a California freeway in August 2019 when a truck in front of them slowed. Mr. Maldonado flicked his turn signal and moved right. Within seconds, his Ford Explorer pickup was hit by a Tesla Model 3 that was traveling about 60 miles per hour on Autopilot.
A six-second video captured by the Tesla and data it recorded show that neither Autopilot — Tesla’s much-vaunted system that can steer, brake and accelerate a car on its own — nor the driver slowed the vehicle until a fraction of a second before the crash…” Read more Hmmmm… A few comments here: 1. Because of the suit here, hopefully more of the data associated with this crash will be made public. Future crashes such as these seem to be covered by the recent NHTSA standing General Order requiring the data to be released without need of lawyers, assuming Tesla cooperates. 2. Neal (slightly) overstate his plot which clearly shows the Tesla began to decelerate slightly more than a full second before impact. He also doesn’t mention what the video clearly shows that the Tesla was “cut-off” by the pickup truck. More over the pickup applied its brakes as it was making the lane change (brake light came on). This brake application may well have been the critical element that made the crash unavoidable. AutoPilot was likely tacking the pickup from at least the 6 seconds before collision point. Tesla must have data on the relative longitudinal speed between the pickup and the Tesla.and it must also have an expected time-to-collision which is a critical measure as to when to kick in the Automated Emergency Braking System. Once again, my main concern here is not (yet) about the performance of AutoPilot, but the performance of Tesla’s Automated Emergency Braking System (AEBS). This is a rear-end crash. It is the responsibility of the AEBS to avert these crashes. Seems as if the AEBS did NOT properly anticipate the pick-up’s maneuver nor properly monitor time-to-collision. My recommendation here is to improve the AEBS.
3. Comments implying that radar would have been better at identifying the ‘cut-off’ are questionable. Lane intrusion is only partial until about 3 seconds before impact. Radar does not return lateral relative-speed, only longitudinal relative-speed. Who knows what lag exists in determining lateral speed and the accuracy of that determination. I doubt that either are very good web based on radar. My guess is that image processing at better than 20Hz would do best in this clear situation.
4. Interpretation of the turn signal can only be done with image processing (to my knowledge.)
5. Nothing is reported about any horn actuation (or if autoPilot even uses the horn). The brake application by the pickup may have been an impulsive response to a horn blow by the Tesla.
6. There seems to be no indication by the driver of the pick-up that he saw the Tesla coming.
7. The Tesla data likely also has its closing speed on the panel truck and thus the closing speed of the pick-up to the panel truck. This information may help us to begin to understand the extent to which the pickup was tailgating the panel truck. 8. To me, AutoPilot’s main issue is: should it allow “passing on the right” when “passing on the right” is illegal. The reason it is illegal is because it leads to crashes like this one, that is an issue that should be taken up by NHTSA and NTSB. To what extent should any of these automated driving devices engage in “illegal” driving? My current view (subject to change) is:
a. Up to 9 mph
over is OK.
b. Rolling
through a stop
sign is OK, if
it is
determined
that time to
any likely
collision is
greater than 5
seconds
(meaning you
must be able
to "see" at
least 5
seconds away
at speed limit
+9 (or
something
similar)
c. Cross
double line as
long as
oncoming
traffic has
slowed to
under 25 mph
and has room
to proceed by
squeezing
right (or
something like
that).
d. Pass on
the right as
long as all
pertinent
vehicles in
the two lanes
are moving at
less than 25
mph (or
something like
that).
Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 222,
[Zoom-Cast Episode 222](https://youtu.be/o7NJhbvCX7c)
F. Fishkin, July 11, “Is it time for autopilot to not break the law? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser says yes. And if technology can save lives, prevent injuries and crashes…shouldn’t it? Plus Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, Waymo, VW and more on Episode 222 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. “Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
The
SmartDrivingCars
eLetter,
Pod-Casts,
Zoom-Casts and
Zoom-inars are
made possible
in part by
support from
the Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For
more
information: [www.motoetf.com](https://www.smartetfs.com/). Most funding is
supplied by
Princeton
University's
Department of
Operations
Research &
Financial
Engineering
and Princeton
Autonomous
Vehicle
Engineering
(PAVE)
research
laboratory as
part of its
research
dissemination
initiative
Virgin Galactic launches Richard Branson to space in 1st fully crewed flight of VSS Unity
C. Gohd, July, 11, “Early this morning (July 11), billionaire Richard Branson and three other passengers briefly went to space for the first fully crewed spaceflight of Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo spaceplane.
At 8:40 a.m.
local time
(10:40 a.m.
EDT; 1440
GMT), the crew
of Virgin
Galactic's
Unity 22 test
flight mission
took off from
the company's
Spaceport
America
facility in
New Mexico and
flew just
above the
boundary of
space, where
the four
passengers and
two pilots
experienced
about four
minutes of
weightlessness.
It was "the
experience of
a lifetime,"
Branson said
during a live
broadcast of
the flight.
Branson,
designated
"Astronaut
001" for the
Unity 22
mission,
founded the
Virgin Group
of companies
that includes
Virgin
Galactic.
..." [Read more](https://www.space.com/virgin-galactic-unity-22-branson-flight-success) Hmmmm... Very impressive from many
points of
view. [Watch video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9MfbCjICH0). An
[Orville & Wilbert](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wright_brothers)
moment. Alain
Tesla finally begins shipping ‘Full Self-Driving’ beta version 9 after a long delay: Let the fun begin
A. Hawkins,
July 10, Tesla
began sending
out
over-the-air
software
updates for
its
long-awaited
"Full
Self-Driving"
beta version
9, the definitely-not-autonomous-but-certainly-advanced
driver assist
system.
As promised by
Elon Musk, the
software
update
(2021.4.18.12)
began
uploading
after midnight
on Friday,
giving
thousands of
Tesla owners
who have
purchased the
FSD option
access to the
feature, which
enables
drivers to use
many of
Autopilot's
advanced
driver-assist
features on
local,
non-highway
streets......"
[Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/10/22570081/tesla-fsd-v9-beta-autopilot-update) Hmmmm... Unfortunately, the
sub-title... "Let the fun begin" is so bad!! FSD should NOT be
about "fun".
Maybe "comfort
&
convenience"
but NOT
"fun". This
is serious
business and
the Driver
MUST stay
completely
engaged and
ready to take
over. In the
"1st video" at
night with no
traffic it
didn't take
long before
the driver had
to intervene.
It took less
than 2 minutes
to have the
driver need to
intervene to
not run over a
pedestrian in
a cross walk.
" ... definitely-not-autonomous ... " End of story!!!
Alain
WELCOME TO SIMULATION CITY, THE VIRTUAL WORLD WHERE WAYMO TESTS ITS AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
A. Hawkins,
July 6, light
gray cube with
a thin blue
top glides
down a
darkened
highway, beset
on all sides
by dozens of
green cubes.
The green
cubes bounce
between lanes
in an attempt
to pass the
gray cube, but
the gray cube
maintains a
steady speed
as the
blackened
landscape
slips past
into the
artificial
night.
This is
Simulation
City, the
virtual world
where Waymo,
an offshoot of
Google, tests
its autonomous
vehicles in
preparation
for real-world
experiences.
The gray cube
with the blue
top represents
one of the
company's
autonomous
semi-trailer
trucks, while
the green
cubes are all
the other
vehicles on
the artificial
highway.
Waymo is
unique among
autonomous
vehicle
operators in
that it has
not one but
two simulation
programs it
uses to train
its vehicles.
The first is
CarCraft,
which has been
in use since
at least 2017,
and in which
Waymo says it
has driven
over 5 billion
miles.
Simulation
City is the
latest virtual
world in which
the company
trains, tests,
and validates
its "Waymo
driver"
software in
order to
ensure its
vehicles are
better
prepared to
meet all of
the challenges
of the open
road. Waymo is
sharing
details about
Simulation
City for the
first time
exclusively
with The
Verge......" [Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/6/22565448/waymo-simulation-city-autonomous-vehicle-testing-virtual) Hmmmm...Interesting. See
video.
Seems to me to
be more
Simulation Freeway
rather than
Simulation City.
15 Billion
simulated
miles seems
good; however,
if most of
those are on
Freeways,
not
so much. (Example:
The simulation
shown in the
article isn't
worth
running! However,
if the
simulations
are mostly in
the "Trentons"
of this world,
then I'm
impressed.)
Alain
Tesla finally releases Full Self-Driving Beta v9: here’s what it looks like
F. Lambert,
July 10,
"...." [Read more](https://electrek.co/2021/07/10/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-v9-first-videos-release-notes/) Hmmmm... Read Lambert's take and
his "1st
video" Much
the same as
above... This
is NOT "Full"
anything
except "snake
oil".
The lane markings are maybe “too good”. They should be extremely good bracketing your lane, the “Blue line” ( where Tesla intends to take you) and the lanes ahead where the blue line intends to take you. Not so much on the lanes next to the blue line lanes. Cross walks and stop lines should also be clear.as well as any lettering that is painted in the lanes (That lettering has been put there to make sure we see it when we are driving.) It is important that Tesla confirms that it sees it too.
Why double yellow lines are not drawn as double yellow lines is disconcerting. It suggests that Tesla designers don’t appreciate the vast amount of thinking and hard work that has gone into the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) (And, of course, Tesla should incorporate any local variants.)
The purpose of the display is visual information to the alert driver to assure them that the snake oil really understands what’s important about what the Tesla is going to encounter in the next few seconds. The intersection image in this article is very bad at doing that. It is mostly eye candy and not what’s really important ahead. The light is red (It should be bigger). The Tesla must be making a right-turn-on-red (It is in the crosswalk going 25mph (certainly not slow ). No iew is presented showing that the “coast is clear”. Really?? It a camera looking that way. What has it interpreted about what that camera seeing? Does it only display what it sees ahead when it is backing up in reverse? It doesn’t show a cross walk in the lane that it is entering. I bet there is one there. oesn’t it see it? Why is the blue line so short? Does it not know what lane it is intending to go follow? Why all the superfluous other lanes? I could go on but this barely earns a P (Pass) in grade-inflated “Covid-grading”. Alain
###
###
EU fines BMW, VW $1B for running emissions cartel since the 90s
R. Bellan, “As environmental issues really came of age in the 1990s, certain German automakers were meeting in secret groups to make sure their cars would continue to industriously contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. According to the European Union, Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, BMW and Mercedes-Benz parent company Daimler have been illegally colluding to restrict competition in emission cleaning for new diesel passenger cars, essentially slowing the deployment of cleaner emissions tech. On Thursday, the EU issued fines of $1 billion (€875 million) to Volkswagen and BMW for their involvement in the emissions cartel.
"The five car
manufacturers
Daimler, BMW,
Volkswagen,
Audi and
Porsche
possessed the
technology to
reduce harmful
emissions
beyond what
was legally
required under
EU emission
standards,"
said executive
VP of the EU
Commission
Margrethe
Vestager in a
statement.
"But they
avoided to
compete on
using this
technology's
full potential
to clean
better than
what is
required by
law. So
today's
decision is
about how
legitimate
technical
cooperation
went wrong.
And we do not
tolerate it
when companies
collude. It is
illegal under
EU Antitrust
rules.
Competition
and innovation
on managing
car pollution
are essential
for Europe to
meet our
ambitious
Green Deal
objectives.
And this
decision shows
that we will
not hesitate
to take action
against all
forms of
cartel conduct
putting in
jeopardy this
goal."... " [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/08/eu-fines-bmw-vw-1b-for-running-emissions-cartel-since-the-90s/) Hmmmm...So very bad!! Shame on
them!. We
can't do this
kind of thing
with
SmartDrivingCars.
Over-hyping
their
capabilities
comes close.
We need to
stop that.
Alain
Tesla Model 3 formally becomes Britain’s best-selling car, period
S. Alvarez,
July 2,"The
Tesla Model Y
may be
stealing some
of the Model
3's luster in
the United
States, but
the
all-electric
sedan is still
a force to be
reckoned with
in Europe.
This became
particularly
evident in
Britain, where
the Model 3
became the
country's
best-selling
car in June,
EV or
otherwise.
The Model 3's
stellar
performance in
Britain's auto
market was
revealed by
the Society of
Motor
Manufacturers
and Traders
(SMMT) earlier
this week. The
SMMT stated
that Tesla
sold 5,468
Model 3s in
June 2021,
allowing it to
top the
country's list
of
best-selling
cars. The
Model 3 also
outsold its
nearest rival,
the internal
combustion-powered
Volkswagen
Golf, by over
800 units. ...
" [Read more](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-britain-best-selling-car-period/) Hmmmm... Congratulations! Alain
Hyundai completes acquisition of Boston Dynamics
S. Crowe, June 21, “t’s officially official. Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai) announced this morning it completed its acquisition of a controlling stake in Boston Dynamics. Hyundai now owns an 80% stake in Boston Dynamics, while SoftBank owns the remaining 20% through one of its affiliates.
The deal was
announced in
December 2020.
Hyundai paid
about $880
million to
acquire the
controlling
stake from
Softbank,
valuing Boston
Dynamics at
$1.1
billion...."
[Read more](https://www.therobotreport.com/hyundai-completes-acquisition-controlling-stake-boston-dynamics/) Hmmmm... Given how much AV
companies
think that
they are
worth, $1.1B
for Boston
Dynamics seems
very cheap.
By the way...
no National
Security
issues
associated
with this
transaction???
[See video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fn3KWM1kuAw).
Alain
The Wrong Way to Pay for Infrastructure
T Gallen & C. Winston, July 7, “The politics of converting a bipartisan agreement between the White House and centrist senators on a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package into legislation will occupy center stage during the coming months. However, the important economic effects of this package should not be ignored. If passed in its current form, the increased government spending in the legislation may raise U.S. gross national product. But the package will hurt the economy by initiating a costly and lengthy transition to build new taxpayer-funded infrastructure.
Those costs
could be
reduced, and
additional
benefits could
be realized,
if
policymakers
set efficient
user prices to
make much
better use of
the
infrastructure
we've already
built.
Efficient user
prices
simultaneously
raise a
sustainable
stream of
revenue for
expenditures,
enable
policymakers
to reduce
expenditures
by encouraging
users to
reduce the
costs they
impose on
other users,
and benefit
the economy by
improving
infrastructure
performance,
such as by
reducing
congestion and
travel delays.
The benefits
associated
with faster
and more
reliable
travel times
are generally
not included
in GNP
calculations....
Efficient congestion pricing for cars and trucks and efficient pavement and bridge wear pricing for trucks could reduce the nearly $200 billion in federal and state spending on road infrastructure by as much as one-third, or more than $60 billion. Congestion pricing makes it unnecessary to build additional expensive highway lanes and new roads to accommodate peak-period vehicle traffic, and, as noted, efficient truck pricing reduces maintenance expenditures on roads and bridges. In addition, travelers and shippers benefit from faster and more reliable trips and from smoother pavement that reduces vehicle repair costs.” Read more Hmmmm… All back toWm. Vickery who earned a Nobel for it. By the way, it should be called “Value Pricing” (It is all about adding “Value” to those involved, Plus it sounds positiv instead of “Congestion Pricing” (Sounds so negative). Alain
Transportation capital and its effects on the U.S. economy: A general equilibrium approach
T Gallen & C. Winston, July 2021, “We analyze the effect of the US transportation system on economic activity by building a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with a taxpayer-funded transportation capital stock. We highlight stark differences between the positive welfare effects of additional infrastructure spending in the long run, and its potentially negative effects when we account for the large transition (time and delay) costs to build. We also quantify large differences between the effects of additional infrastructure spending and efficient transportation policies, such as congestion pricing and eliminating laws that artificially inflate input prices, concluding that taxpayer-funded transportation improvements that increase GDP significantly may produce smaller welfare gains than efficient policies that increase GDP modestly…” Read more Hmmmm… Details in support of the above. Alain
Elon Musk just now realizing that self-driving cars are a ‘hard problem’
A. Hawkins,
July 10,
"Tesla CEO
Elon Musk is
finally
admitting that
he
underestimated
how difficult
it is to
develop a safe
and reliable
self-driving
car. To which
the entire
engineering
community rose
up as one to
say, "No duh."
Or at least
that's how it
should have
happened in a
just world.
Instead, all
the Tesla
sycophants and
ass-kissers on
Twitter told
Musk to keep
up the good
work, that
they believed
in him, and
encouraged him
to hurry up
and roll out
the latest
version of his
"Full
Self-Driving"
software that,
it's worth
pointing out,
does not
enable a Tesla
vehicle to
drive itself
without input
from the
driver......"
[Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/5/22563751/tesla-elon-musk-full-self-driving-admission-autopilot-crash) Hmmmm... OK, he might have moved a
couple of
degrees, but
he needs to do
a complete 180,
a[Full Monty](https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/full-monty.html). Alain
More On….
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Poser’77, Sept 13, 2020. “Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines” . See slides, See video Hmmmm… Simply Brilliant. Alain
0, 0);">[Annual Princeton](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210128)SmartDrivingCar
Summit [It is over!!!](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210325)
Now time to
actually do
something in
the Trentons
of this
world.
Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April
18, "“It’s
time to hit
the start
button,†is
[Fred Fishkin’s](https://www.techstination.com/)
succinct way
of summarizing
the next steps
in the Smart
Driving Car
journey.
Fiskin, along
with the LA
Times’ [Russ Mitchell](https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell?lang=en)
co-produced
the final
session of the
[2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen â€" Part 2](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210415).
This 16th and
final session
in this
multi-month
online
conference not
only provided
a s[ummary of the thought-provoking speakers](https://viodi.com/2021/04/18/making-driverless-happen-the-road-forward/),
but also
provided food
for thought on
a way forward
to bring
mobility to
“the
Trentons of
the World.â€
Setting the
stage for this
final session,
Michael Sena
provided
highlights of
the Smart
Driving Car
journey that
started in
late December
2020. Safety,
high-quality,
and affordable
mobility,
particularly
for those who
do not have
many options,
was a common
theme to the
2021 Smart
Driving Car
Summit. As
Princeton
Professor
Kornhauser,
the conference
organizer put
it,....." [Read more](https://viodi.com/2021/04/18/making-driverless-happen-the-road-forward/) Hmmmm.... We had another
excellent
Session.
Thank you for
the summary,
Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle’s Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
[Michael Sena's Slides](https://www.dropbox.com/s/yfzscinfy41vrka/Sena_Session8%20SDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0),
[Glenn Mercer Slides](https://www.dropbox.com/s/8x4sd97vrifa9r9/Mercer_Session8%20SDC_Summit.pdf?dl=0)
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021“Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the “Trentons” of this World”
Orf467F20_FinalReport “Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System” Kornhauser & He, March 2021 “AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative”
C’mon Man!(These folks didn’t get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
The 2021 TRB Annual
Automated Road Transportation Symposium
Virtual on July 12-15, 2021
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Fall 2021 Live in Person Tentaively: November 2 (evening) -> 4, 2021
Georgia,
serif;">
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean’s AV Research Group at U of Texas
and
[The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT](https://www.itu.int/en/fnc/2021/Pages/default.aspx)
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, “Recordings from the conference:
Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: ([Cybersecurity](https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY)): [https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY](https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY)
Session 3: [(Automated Driving Systems](https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc)): [https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc](https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc)
Session 4: [(Communications for ADS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso)) : [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso)
Read more Hmmmm… Russ, thank you for sharing! Alain
###
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221, Zoom-Cast Episode 221 w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox
F. Fishkin, July 1, “With Zoox…the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company’s vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220 w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times
F. Fishkin, July 1, “Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That’s a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill…who joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that…plus Tesla…autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 219, Zoom-Cast Episode 219 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, June 29 , “Why couldn’t a smart driving car prevent Alain’s crash with a deer? How important is exact location for highly automated driving? And NHTSA wants reports on all automated vehicle system crashes. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 218, Zoom-Cast Episode 218 w/Xinfeng Le, Waymo Product Manager
F. Fishkin, June 10 , “Have questions about Waymo’s partnership with JB Hunt to test autonomous trucks in Texas? So do we…and Waymo’s Product Manager, Xinfeng Le joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to provide answers. Plus.. Waymo raises 2 and a half billion dollars, MacKenzie Scott gives away billions, start-up Waabi comes out of stealth, Argo AI plans an IPO and more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 217, Zoom-Cast Episode 217 w/Christorpher Mims, Columnist, Wall Street Journal
F. Fishkin, June 7 , “Are self-driving cars still decades ahead? Wall Street Jopurnal columnist and author Christopher Mims joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the progress and roadblocks. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, the dramatic rise in road deaths during Covid and more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 216, Zoom-Cast Episode 216 w/Michael Sena, editor The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 28 , “The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming Into Focus. That’s on top in the June edition of The Dispatcher. From Sweden, publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus better batteries, May Mobility, Tesla and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 215, Zoom-Cast Episode 215 w/Cade Metz, Correspondent, NY Times & Ken Pyle, editor, Viodi.com
F. Fishkin, May 27 , “The Costly Pursuit of Self Driving Cars Continues On and On and On. That’s the headline of a NY Times story this week. The reporter, Cade Metz, also the author of a new book on artificial intelligence, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Ken Pyle of Viodi View..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 214, Zoom-Cast Episode 214
F. Fishkin, May 23 , “An interview with the chief engineer behind Ford’s F150 Lightning EV truck…Waymo shares rider stories and the AFL-CIO tells Congress autonomous vehicles should be required to have human operators. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America’s Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , “The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America’s Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM, #TuSimple and more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too. “..
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America’s Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , “The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America’s Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM, #TuSimple and more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too.. https://youtu.be/Z6NBRrtTDnI “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212 w/Ken Pyle
F. Fishkin, May 8 , “Where does Waymo go from here? Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles? Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211 w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 1 , “There’s plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense…and what doesn’t. Plus #Tesla, #Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. …”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210 w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron’23
F. Fishkin, April 26 , “Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from #Elon​ Musk’s The Boring Company. Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton’s Alain ..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209 w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.
F. Fishkin, April , “The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208 w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo
F. Fishkin, April 18, “What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo…some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207 w/Selika Josiah Talbott
F. Fishkin, April 10 , “When a driverless vehicle crashes…what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206 w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
F. Fishkin, April 2, “When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles? How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome? Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin…”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205 w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher. President, MLSena Consulting
F. Fishkin, March 26, “Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities. So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more…on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars…”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, “.With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker’s new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table…and a look at the future of auto insurance..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser
###
F. Fishkin,
March 13,
".GM's move to
transform auto
insurance
through OnStar
Insurance:
Is it a win,
win for
all? Is
adaptive
cruise control
prompting some
drivers to
speed? And
what does
Tesla really
mean by "full
self
driving"?
Just some of
the questions
tackled in
the latest
edition of
Smart Driving
Cars with
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin."
[SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-202),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 202](https://youtu.be/Hj3GmnTqfdk) President
& CEO,
RoadDB
###
###
F. Fishkin,
March 3, "When
will we be
able to
purchase cars
that can
largely drive
themselves?
It may not be
long...but
don't expect
to vacate the
driver's
seat. That's
the view of
entrepreneur,
tech pioneer
and RoadDB CEO
Russ
Shields. He
takes an in
depth look at
where we are
and where
we're headed
with
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin." [SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-201),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 201](https://youtu.be/n5oEfvBrWa8)
w/Michael
Sena,
Publisher of The
Dispatcher
###
###
F. Fishkin,
Feb. 26,
"Smarter cars
need smarter
assembly...and
location
matters. The
Dispatcher
publisher
Michael Sena
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin for a
look at that,
politics,
climate and
carmakers...plus
Tesla,
Velodyne,
Foxconn and
more.." [SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200](https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-episode-200),
[Zoom-Cast Episode 200](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVHQuwNT4eY&feature=youtu.be)
w/Edwin Olsen,
CEO, May
Mobility
###
###
F. Fishkin,
Feb. 22, "How
May Mobility
is building
confidence in
autonomous
transportation
and creating a
road map for
growth through
the pandemic
and beyond.
CEO and
co-founder
Edwin Olson
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin for
that and
more."
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
July 2, 2021
[Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race](https://www.ft.com/content/fa585fe6-3c69-4e12-b3bb-d48560fbdbb2)
J. Thornhill,
June 24,
"Brimming with
epic successes
and
spectacular
failures, the
early history
of the motor
car industry
offers clues
about its
future, too.
As so often
during
technological
revolutions,
initial bursts
of fast and
furious
experimentation
by wild-eyed
pioneers are
followed by
waves of
industry
consolidation
by more sober
corporate
types.
So it was in
the US from
the 1890s,
when scores of
obsessive
entrepreneurs
launched the
modern auto
industry. Over
the next few
decades they
founded
hundreds of
companies
manufacturing
thousands of
different
models. In the
words of one
historian,
these
dedicated
enthusiasts
competed in a
"drastically
Darwinian"
world and
seemed to
prefer "to go
broke making
automobiles
than get rich
doing anything
else", a tune
which
resonates
again today.
But the
development of capital-intensive mass manufacturing methods, the Great Depression and
the second
world war
thinned out
the
competition.
By 1950, the
industry was
dominated by
just three
giant
corporations:
General
Motors, Ford
and Chrysler,
which between
them accounted
for about
three-quarters
of global
production.
Today, the car
industry is
opening up
once again to
new entrants
amid another
technological
convulsion as
electric and
connected
vehicles — and
maybe
eventually
autonomous
cars — replace
combustion
engine motors
driven by
humans. As
this
revolution
unfolds, we
are seeing
another burst
of creative
competition as entrepreneurial start-ups and tech companies flood into the market. ...
The industry's
dream is to
create an
attractive and
reliable
$25,000
electric car
that overcomes
range anxiety.
As Alain
Kornhauser, a
professor at
Princeton
University,
says, the
winners will
be those who
can build cars
that appeal to
everyday
drivers as
well as the
"greasers and
truckers".
"It's all
about the
sociology, not
the
technology,"
he adds.
In other
words, it will
be, as it has
always been
throughout
history, the
customer who
decides." [Read more](https://www.ft.com/content/fa585fe6-3c69-4e12-b3bb-d48560fbdbb2) Hmmmm... Same for Driverless AVs.
Alain
June 28, 2021
[How Important is Exact Localization for HAD?](https://www.dropbox.com/s/e8ql7q722zxqb13/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf?dl=0) M.
Sena,
July/Aug. '21,
"[In this issue of The Dispatcher for July and August](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf), I
have taken up
a subject in
the lead
article that
has been on my
list for quite
some time. It
is of how cars
that drive
themselves
keep
themselves on
the road while
they make
their journey
to their
destination.
It turns out
that there is
a very good
reason why
Teslas crash
and Waymo is
running around
only in
Chandler,
Arizona after
people who
didn't know
better
promised that
there would be
completely
driverless
cars on all
roads a decade
ago:
localization
of a moving
vehicle is
very, very
hard, even for
a human.
I encourage
you to read
Musings this
month. It's
about making
the journey to
a world
without
climate change
protests, a
world where
they either
won't be
necessary or
allowed. On
most journeys,
we have to
cross bridges.
Sometimes we
have to make
them
ourselves.
Think of the
article as the
first bridge
to cross
toward a
better
understanding
of the climate
change
journey.
Dispatch
Central
contains, as
usual,
something for
everyone.
Insurance is
addressed in
the two main
articles. In
Bits and
Pieces I have
added my
thoughts on
recent events.
This is a
double issue,
in part
because we are
going to try
to do more
this summer
than we could
do last. But
it's also
because I need
some extra
time to work
on a follow-up
to the
Princeton
SmartDrivingCars
Summit with
Professor
Alain
Kornhauser.
There was a
concrete
proposal put
forward by
Professor
Kornhauser
during the
last session,
and many of us
who took part
in the Summit
have committed
to try to work
on
implementing
that proposal.
[Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/e8ql7q722zxqb13/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf?dl=0) Hmmmm... . Once again an
outstanding The
Dispatcher.
I happen to
have a diffent
fundamental
view on"exact
localization"
than Michael,
many and
possibly even
everyone
else... As
usual, I'll
take a very
self-centered
view... I've
lived my whole
life without
knowing (or
caring to
know) my
"exact
location".
I've been
satisfied to
know: "sort
of... where am
I?" but
exact...where
am I? ... not
so much.
What troubles
me about the
"exact where
am I" is that
this exactness
is in some
coordinate
system. Where
is the origin
of that
coordinate
system and is
moving? Oh,
it's the
"center" of
the earth??
Or some
"reference
point". So
"exact" is
actually,
"exact
relative to
some reference
point. Little
seems to ever
be said about
the
"exactness" of
the reference
point, but
that may
actually be
some saving
grace about
"exact".. it
is "exact"
relative to
some reference
point.
I see.. If the reference point is the center of the Universe, then I’d better be really-really precise; else, small small changes mean big-big differences. If the reference is the center of the earth, then I may just need to be really precise; else, small changes mean big differences. However, if the reference point is my nose and I’m trying to stay between two white lines and not hit anything, then the precision to which I need to know where things are may not need to be very precise as long as I have a little bit of leeway and still stay between the lines and leave enough room around the various objects to not hit them.
OK, safe driving requires only knowing where I am relative to objects around me to a moderate level of precision. I can do it in two ways… take the difference between two values: location of object and my location. The farther away the reference point, the more precise they will need to be if precision of the difference is to be maintained. Consequently, if the measurements are relative to my nose, the need for about as small as it can get.
Moreover, any precision data base lacks some “most” important values.. 1. a precise value for my location and 2. a precise value for anything around me that moves (meaning it wasn’t at its current location when the HD database was assembled). Required is the ability in real time to locate and track objects relative to me (my nose, the hood ornament of my car, ..) with only some precision These objects and their location aren’t included in these precise/HD databases. What is needed is a very reliable means of identifying objects and determining their position and velocity with little latency. This is absolutely necessary;uyr;y necessary for the moving objects, might as well do it also for the stationary objects. 😁 Alain
Please don’t suggest that one needs an HD map database in order to run their SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping) algorithm. That algorithm needs as input the relative position (sensor observations) of objects . The capability to determine those inputs is all that is needed to do collision avoidance, so don’t even bother going through the SLAM computation and certainly don’t pay for a reference data set.
Are self-driving cars safe? Highway regulator orders industry to cough up the data
R. Mitchell,
June 29,
"After years
of inaction,
the federal
government
will begin
collecting
crash data on
automated
vehicles.
The National
Highway
Traffic Safety
Administration
on Tuesday
ordered dozens
of car, truck
and technology
companies to
inform the
agency of a
serious crash
within a day
of learning
about it, with
a more
complete data
report due
after 10 days.
The order will
enable NHTSA
to "collect
information
necessary for
the agency to
play its role
in keeping
Americans safe
on the
roadways, even
as the
technology
deployed on
the nation's
roads
continues to
evolve," the
agency said.
The order
applies to
highly
automated
vehicles,
including
robotic cars
that don't
require a
human driver,
as well as
partially
automated
systems such
as Tesla's
Autopilot and
General
Motors' Super
Cruise with
advanced
cruise control
and automatic
steering.
It immediately
affects the
partially
automated
so-called
Level 2
systems
increasingly
common on new
vehicles from
most major
manufacturers.
The number of
fully robotic
cars and
trucks now
deployed on
public roads
is tiny, but
the market is
expected to
grow
dramatically
in coming
years.
Manufacturers
tout the
safety and
convenience of
automated
vehicles, but
scant useful
data have been
collected to
demonstrate
how safe they
are.
"This is very
important.
It's
fantastic. And
it's about
time," said
Alain
Kornhauser,
who heads the
automated
vehicle
engineering
program at
Princeton
University.
"Safety should
not be a
competition.
It's a
cooperation."...
"Nobody should
push back on
this,"
Princeton's
Kornhauser
said. "We
don't know
what we don't
know, we don't
know what
works and
doesn't work,
and this
allows us to
begin to know
that."..." [Read more](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-06-29/nhtsa-adas-crash-data) Hmmmm... I couldn't have said it
better myself.
😁 Alain
Self-Driving Cars Could Be Decades Away, No Matter What Elon Musk Said
C. Mims, June 5, “…” Read more Hmmmm… Not to be defensive, but I will be…
“In 2015, Elon Musk said self-driving cars that could drive “anywhere†would be here within two or three years.” … According to my definition, from day-one (>9 years ago), of my 3 (very) different types of SmartDrivingCars:
-
Safe-driving Cars (Automation of Collision Avoidance on cars that we drive all the time. Societal benefit is improved Safety),
-
Self-Driving Cars (Automation of Steering and Braking functions some of the time, in some places, but always requiring driver supervision. Societal benefit is Comfort & Convenience (and NOT any substantive Safety improvements), and
-
Driverless Cars able to go from some origins to some destinations at some times without a driver or attendant on board. Societal benefit is delivering affordable high-quality mobility for almost anyone (and some/many things), from those origin-destination-time combinations. (period! Again, safety is a floor, not a substantive value proposition.)
Elon delivers, every day, “self-driving Tesla” with his autoPilot and FSD features. They deliver very good “Comfort & Convenience” to Tesla owners as long as the driver continues to do their part… always supervise the Tesla’s automation. Cadillac also does it with its SuperCruise, Subaru with its EyeSight, Mercedes with its 997 package, and …
Automakers, Mad Men and modern day commercials seem to make it a habit to oversell and over promise. I admit, Elon may well be at the asymptotic limit of that distribution, but everyone knows that he’s way out there. We consider him entertainment, just as we consider all the money we loose on Fan Duel and in Vegas to be an entertainment expense. Caveat emptor
In 2016, Lyft CEO John Zimmer predicted they would “all but end†car ownership by 2025.
… Hopefully by then, that thought will be in at least some minds. Putting some blemish on what the Mad Men created as an absolute human desire would be a substantial achievement….
In 2018, Waymo CEO John Krafcik warned autonomous robocars would take longer than expected.
… Nothing wrong here…
In 2021, some experts aren’t sure when, if ever, individuals will be able to purchase steering-wheel-free cars that drive themselves off the lot….”
… From the beginning and continue today I argue that there is no market in the personal ownership of Driverless Cars. Why own it??? I can’t even drive it!!! Just to sit in my driveway??? I’m going to make it a business??? I’ll be the smallest businessman in the world, bearing on my shoulders the highest form of personal responsibility, the life & safety of my customer. NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!!
Also… please, not everyone promised anything. And I haven’t even mentioned Steve Schladover who has been stalwart in his efforts to advance this technology in a realistic context.
The Society of Automotive Engineers had, and continue to have, an opportunity to bring realism to this community by, at the very least, simply dropping any reference to anything called “Level 5”. If SAE wishes to be humble and brave, they can also apologize for even suggesting that Level 5’s “everywhere” could ever exist within the lifetimes of any current or soon to be member of SAE. By creating the category, SAE baited the Mad Men, Sunday Supplementers and Click-Bait folks into fantasizing something envisioned by a reputable, serious organization.
SAE, please edit your “Levels literature” by “whiting out” all reference to “Level 5” or adding after any Level 5 “NA”. While you’re at it, do it also for “Level 3” because that’s also a non-starter. Alain May 29, 2021
[The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming into Focus](https://www.dropbox.com/s/bpeklrq3sgutu1l/The-Dispatcher_June-2021.pdf?dl=0) M.
Sena, June
2021,
"...Mobility-as-a-service
would provide
the business
model to tie
everything
together,
perhaps as an
extension of
your
phone/broadband
subscription.
Private car
ownership
would soon be
a relic of a
bygone age.
This is an interesting narrative, but is not a correct one. Even before COVID-19 changed how people have been living outside of China since Friday, the 13th of March 2020, the picture of everything happening in high density cities was a rumor that companies like WEWORK spread to build their houses of cards. …
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to
start thinking
outside the
bus. If a city
is serious
about
providing a
useful bus
service, it
needs to run
them
everywhere and
often,
including at
night. It
must,
therefore, get
rid of cars
driving and
parking on its
streets. ..
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to
start thinking
outside the
bus. If a city
is serious
about
providing a
useful bus
service, it
needs to run
them
everywhere and
often,
including at
night. It
must,
therefore, get
rid of cars
driving and
parking on its
streets. ...
What cities
are doing
today all over
the world is
neither
providing an
adequate
service to
their citizens
nor using the
money
allocated for
transport in a
cost-effective
way...
Bite the bullet and get private cars off the big city streets
The reasons
that people
who live in
cities began
to buy cars
was that they
needed them to
get to their
jobs, the ones
that began
moving out of
the cities in
the ‘60s to
‘campuses’
where there
were no
transit links.
Then they
needed them to
drop off their
children to
day care
centers since
both parents
worked. Then
they needed
them to drop
off their
older
children...
As I said, it is not buses that will meet the need. Neither is it roads filled with taxis. There are taxis offering rides in Trenton and Scranton, but they are not replacing buses because they are too expensive and are often unavailable when demand for them is highest. The Uber/Lyft model can be better at meeting demand, but they are still too costly…”
Read more Hmmmm… Enjoy the whole issue. It is enormously well written! Also listen/watch the SDC Pod/Zoom Cast 216- below with Michael. Alain
[The Costly Pursuit of Self-Driving Cars Continues On. And On. And On.](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/24/technology/self-driving-cars-wait.html) C. Metz,
May 24, "...
So what went
wrong? Some
researchers
would say
nothing â€"
that’s how
science works.
You can’t
entirely
predict what
will happen in
an experiment.
...
It's not an
experiment if
you can
predict the
outcome. Why
bother doing
it???
More importantly, Mother Nature is involved and you don’t know what she is going to throw at you. Which is why simulations are not the complete answer… They’ll only regurgitate what you told them to do (which is somewhat useful because they implicate together the things that you thought you knew, giving you new insights.). The challenge is, She’s not involved in the simulation but She is every time you do it… But that’s life and that’s what makes it exiting and worth living…. The self-driving car project just happened to be one of the most hyped technology experiments of this century, occurring on streets all over the country and run by some of its highest-profile companies….
Self-driving tech is not yet nimble enough to reliably handle the variety of situations human drivers encounter each day. It can usually handle suburban Phoenix, but it can’t duplicate the human chutzpah needed for merging into the Lincoln Tunnel in New York or dashing for an offramp on Highway 101 in Los Angele … True! But getting it to work in the Nevada desert and then Pheonix is an enormous accomplishment. Frank didn’t just roll out of the womb and make it in New York. He also went through “..the blues…” where he could actually sing and be appreciated in the “..small towns…” before he made it in NYC. It took GM about ‘12 seconds’ to realize that the required human chutzpah was way to much to get started and they were outathere.
“If you look at almost every industry that is trying to solve really, really difficult technical challenges, the folks that tend to be involved are a little bit crazy and little bit optimistic,†he said. “You need to have that optimism to get up every day and bang your head against the wall to try to solve a problem that has never been solved, and it’s not guaranteed that it ever will be solved.†… Absolutely true. By definition! (I also like to say that you need to be fundamentally stupid; else, you would have known how hard it was going to be and you would have just played golf or video games in your parent’s basement…)
“These cars will be able to operate on a limited set of streets under a limited set of weather conditions at certain speeds,†said Jody Kelman, an executive at Lyft. “We will very safely be able to deploy these cars, but they won’t be able to go that many places.†… Yup!! There is absolutely nothing bad about that. Go someplace else. It doesn’t need to be much tougher that “Chandler”. It doesn’t really need to be any “bigger” than “Chandler”.
Waymo needs what Chandler doesn’t have.. Customers … Definition: folks whose quality-of-life can be substantially improved by what Waymo’s Technology can readily deliver today. )
That's the
market side of
this
initiative
that Silicon
Valley seems
to have
forgotten.
Cool
Technology
doesn't
happen, just
because it is
Technology.
Technology
happens
because it is
Cool. Cool is
the value
proposition,
not
Technology:
else we'd have
[Segways](https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/say-so-long-to-the-original-segway/)
and people
wearing [GoogleGlass](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/052115/how-why-google-glass-failed.asp)
all over the
place.
Assisted Driving (what I call Self-drivingCars, or, sorry, SAE Level 1 and Level 2, or Tesla AutoPilot) are Cool (That technology delivers Comfort and Convenience to those that can afford and wish to buy cars). The buyer/customer just relies, for the most part, that engineers are making sure that the Technology works. Customers demand that the Technology adds to what they already enjoy (Cool). Their attention span is really short. The “lipstick” wears off quickly.
For Driverless… not so much Cool in Chandler. Maybe as a fling, or a tale, but actually, the negatives, largely outweigh the positives, think GoogleGlass. Few move or stay in Chandler unless you have a car (~70% Households have 2 or more cars). ‘everyone’ has their own car. So while the Waymo technology might work in Chandler, it doesn’t have enough Waymophiles (customers for whom Waymo substantially improves what they already have for themselves) to make it a Go.
However, take “Trenton”. 70 % of the households have one or zero cars. Many more Trentonians have the opportunity to appreciate the incremental value that Waymo will bring to their lives. They will more easily become Waymophiles if Waymo delivers in Trenton what Waymo has well demonstrated the “Cool” that it can deliver in Chandler. Even if Waymo shuts down until the few roads that it uses are plowed the few times it snows in Trenton. Trenton is Waymos’s (Ford/Argo & GM/Cruise as well) “New York”.
In short… While Chandler is an ideal place for Waymo to start getting its Technology working, Trenton is a great place for them to deliver societal value, which is supposed to be the fundamental mission of these Google “X.Projects” … …”
...X’s primary
output
is
breakthrough
technologies
that have the
potential to transform
people’s
lives and
become large,
sustainable
businesses."
It is time that Waymo begins to take what they’ve accomplished and actually begin to deliver primary output. “Read more Hmmmm… Excellent. Comments in line above. Also Listen/Watch PodCast above. Alain
May 22, 2021
Why I Ride with Waymo: Mike Waymo One, May 13, “… I started taking it to work, and after crunching the numbers for gas, maintenance, insurance, upkeep, and owning a depreciating investment, it was pretty much a no-brainer that we really didn’t need two cars. I sold off my car and made Waymo my choice for commuting to and from work and for trips my wife and I need to take when the other is using our car…” Read more Hmmmm…This is really great that he “crunched the numbers” and found it to be “pretty much a no-brainer”, which is what every real Waymo customer in Chandler has to do to become a Waymo customer. One “doesn’t move to Chandler unless one has “two cars”. See slide 5: 70% of the households have 2 or more cars in Chandler, so most of the folks have had to do the math to become a customer. If Waymo offered the same service in Trenton, where 70% of the households have at most one car and 30% don’t have any, then it doesn’t take much number crunching to appreciate Waymo when walking is the next best way to go.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the “easiest” ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
May 15, 2021
Autonomous Vehicles: A Framework for Deployment and Safety R. Diamond, May 13, “Join SAFE for an event focused on the importance of autonomous vehicles to our national and economic security and outlining pathways for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles.
The event will
feature
remarks from
Dr. Steve
Cliff, Acting
Administrator
of NHTSA, a
discussion
between
industry
leaders, and
the release of
a report, "A
Regulatory
Framework for
AV Safety," by
O. Kevin
Vincent,
Associate
General
Counsel,
Regulatory at
Lucid...." [Read more](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efcOl4QT4vg) Hmmmm... A must watch,
complemented
by the [Vincent report](https://www.dropbox.com/s/v7d50nlj2k3o2ud/Kevin-Vincent-Regulatory-Framework.pdf?dl=0) and
our latest [PodCast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biRYIW1ULCo) below.
Alain
May 8, 2021 [Why has’t Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here’s my theory](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/why-hasnt-waymo-expanded-its-driverless-service-heres-my-theory/)
###
T. Lee, May 7,
"Suburban
ride-hailing
is a lousy
business to be
in.
Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver’s seat.
And then...
nothing. Seven
months later,
Waymo has
neither
expanded the
footprint of
the Phoenix
service nor
has it
announced a
timeline for
launching in a
second city.
It's as if
Steve Jobs had
unveiled the
iPhone,
shipped a few
thousand
phones to an
Apple Store in
Phoenix, and
then didn't
ship any more
for
monthsâ€"and
wouldn't
explain why.
Last Friday,
two Waymo
employees [participated in an "ask me anything" thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/n031vq/you_voted_and_were_excited_to_chat_about_waymo/) on
the
SelfDrivingCars
subreddit, a
watering hole
for
self-driving
industry
insiders.
Questions
about
expansion
plans
dominated the
conversation.
"How are you
going to
scale?" one
redditor
asked. "What
are the
impediments to
service
expansion at
this time?"
The Waymonauts
responded with
maddening
generalities.
"We feel the
same urgency
to scale
quickly that
others do, but
a ton of work
goes into
doing it
safely," wrote
Waymo's Sam
Kansara." [Read more](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/why-hasnt-waymo-expanded-its-driverless-service-heres-my-theory/) Hmmmm... Not at all surprising.
Can you
imagine trying
to be better
than one's own
Land Rover or
Porsche in car
country. That
is a heavy
lift. Making
it heavier is
the focus on
today's most
entitled
yuppies.
That's as bad
as the
original focus
of driverless
cars on
1%ers. Waymos
are pure and
simple
mobility
machines to
get you
from/to places
horizontally,
just as
elevators do
vertically ...
just get you
up to the "8th
floor". Why
are elevators
so successful
at what they
do?... Second
best is the
stairwell!
They win all
the time,
hands down.
In Chandler, the “stairwell” is your car parked in your garage. You don’t even have to go outside in all that heat. Waymo’s got to be really good to beat that! Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances “slim-to-none”. Not that the car in the garage doesn’t have an enormous amount of “excess baggage”. Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it. When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car. Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live. That’s a challenging market place for Waymo. It’s worse than Bing v Google
A better place for Waymo ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service. The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car. Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don’t have access to one. Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach “the eighth floor”; which, once they can using Waymo, would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.
Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that’s arguably the last place for Waymo to go. However, the census identifies many communities and “inner suburbs” that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household. For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice. Numerous Trenton residents would readily perceive Waymo as the “Google” in their trip mode-choice.
Another note… trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool’s gambit. Since Waymos don’t misbehave, it is “easy” to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about. Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director,
Transportation
Program
Faculty Chair,
Princeton
Autonomous
Vehicle
Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton
University
Princeton, NJ
609-980-1427
(c)
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