Elon, you sell cars to individuals at which point you relinquish control and responsibility, and thankfully, liability, for that car. Please do everything that you can to be certain that your cars are used responsibly at all times and that those individuals are alert and in control at all times; else, you'll re-acquire the responsibility and the liability. The burden of liability is not good for any business. Liability without control is TrainWreck. The regulators won't save you. Alain
Press
release, Oct
22, "The U.S.
Department of
Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration today
released
highway crash
fatality data
for 2018,
showing a 2.4
percent
decline in
overall
fatalities,
the second
consecutive
year of
reduced crash
fatalities....Click
here to
view the 2018
fatal motor
vehicle
crashes
overview
research
note." Read
more Hmmmm...
L.
Lazo, Oct 22,
"Nearly 36,600
people died on
U.S. roadways
last year, a
decrease of
2.4 percent
from 2017,
according to
data released
Tuesday by the
National
Highway
Traffic Safety
Administration.
Traffic
fatalities
fell for the
second-straight
year in 2018,
the agency
said, and the
downward trend
continues,
with traffic
deaths down
3.4 percent in
the first six
months of this
year.
The statistics
should be
reassuring to
jurisdictions
that have in
recent years
embraced new
traffic safety
programs
targeted at
making roads
safer and
lowering
traffic
deaths, which
have been
steadily
increasing
since
2014..." Read
more Hmmmm... Maybe it is general
"safety
programs" but
specifically
it is likely
that better
crash
mitigation
technology is
in more of the
vehicles that
are on the
road each day
and that crash
avoidance
technology is
also beginning
to be in
sufficient
cars that it
is beginning
to appear in
the
statistics. I
doubt that we
are texting
less, less
distracted or
behaving
better as we
drive. Alain
K.
Korosec,
Oct. 23,
"Tesla
returned to
profitability
in the third
quarter after
two periods of
losses
surprising
Wall Street
and sending
shares higher
in
after-market
trading,
according to
earnings
reported after
the market
closed
Wednesday.
The
automaker’s
third-quarter
results
included $143
million in net
income, or 80
cents a share,
compared with
$311 million,
or $1.82 a
share, in the
same year-ago
period. Tesla
earned $342
million, or
$1.91 a share,
in the third
quarter when
adjusted for
one-time
items.
Analysts had
expected a
loss of 46
cents per
share and
revenue of
$6.42 billion,
according to
data compiled
by FactSet.
Tesla reported
revenue of
$6.3 billion,
slightly lower
than the $6.35
billion
generated in
the previous
period and
more than 7.5%
lower than the
same quarter
last year. But
it was in line
with analysts
expectations.
Tesla said it
is “highly
confident”
deliveries
will exceed
360,000
deliveries
this year..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Not bad! Tesla
Share Price,
Uber Share
Price, Lyft
Share Price
Alain
N.
Shrouzu, Oct
25, "When
Toyota Motor
Corp (7203.T)
launches its
all-battery
Lexus next
year, the
luxury model
will be able
to drive
autonomously
on highways, a
big step for
the Japanese
automaker,
which has so
far trailed
rivals in
bringing
self-driving
cars to
market...
Right now,
component
manufacturers
and venture
companies
working on the
technology
“are revising
their timeline
for AI
deployment
significantly,”
Executive Vice
President
Shigeki
Tomoyama told
a small group
of reporters
this
week...Toyota
next year will
release its
first
so-called
“Level 2”
autonomous
car, capable
of driving
itself on the
highway, “from
entrance to
exit, with
traffic
merging
capability,”
Tomoyama said.
Other
automakers
already market
“Level 2”
cars, but a
growing number
are pushing
out their
schedules to
develop future
autonomous
technologies,
citing the
high hurdle to
clear before
enabling cars
to perform
more driving
tasks." ..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Not at all surprising.
The
traditional
OEMs were
never going to
be disrupters
that to put
Driverless
Mobility-as-a-Service cars out there. It isn't their business model,
and it won't
be.
Self-driving
(I dare say
"Level 2") is
and has always
been their
sweet spot.
It sells
cars. Just
look at what
Elon has done.
(even without
showrooms!).
Now watch
these same
companies
throw monkey
wrenches into
those
Driverless
mobility
machines to
protect their
conventional
business model
. "Level 3"
will never
happen
because
traditional
OEMs would
have to assume
responsibility/liability after relinquishing control to irresponsible
consumers.
Never Happen!
That would
destroy their
elegant
business model
of: "sell it
and
forgetaboutit";
the buyer is
is
responsible;
the buyer has
to maintain
it, the buyer
has to insure
it; not our
problem; not
our
responsibility!
Never
Happen!
Alain
J. Hsieh, Oct 25, "Regulators frequently apply a not-so-invisible hand to manage the advent of new technology. They weigh the perceived social benefits of the innovation against the perceived dangers (physical, financial and moral). Examples include credit default swaps and other risk-spreading financial instruments, blockchain, bioengineering, fintech and medical advancements. This dynamic is also front-and-center in transportation safety, previously with seat belts, anti-lock brakes and air bags, and now in the field of automated driving systems (ADS).
Thomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence reached out to Mark Raffman, a partner in the Washington, D.C. office of Goodwin Procter LLP. Raffman concentrates his practice on complex product liability and consumer products litigation and advice. He advises on regulatory compliance audits and legislation as well as transactions posing product liability risks...
and
labor has
expressed
concern about
whether
federal safety
regulation
will be
sufficiently
robust..." Read
more Hmmmm...Here come the monkey
wrenches.
Alain
K.
Korosec,
Oct. 25, "A
fleet of
electric,
autonomous
Hyundai Kona
crossovers —
equipped with
a self-driving
system from
Chinese
autonomous
startup Pony
.ai and Via’s
ride-hailing
platform, will
start
shuttling
customers on
public roads
next week.
The robotaxi
service called
BotRide will
operate on
public roads
in Irvine,
California,
beginning
November 4.
This isn’t a
driverless
service; there
will be a
human safety
driver behind
the wheel at
all times.
But it is one
of the few
ride-hailing
pilots on
California
roads. Only
four
companies,
AutoX,
Pony.ai,
Waymo and
Zoox have
permission to
operate a
ride-hailing
service using
autonomous
vehicles in
the state of
the
California.
Customers will
be able to
order rides
through a
smartphone
app, which
will direct
passengers to
nearby stops
for pick up
and drop off.
Via’s
expertise is
on shared
rides, and
this platform
aims for the
same multiple
rider goal.
..." Read
more Hmmmm...OK. I hope that they will
report their
disengagements
while
providing this
service separately
from their
other
drivered-driverless
operations and
tests.
Alain
M.
Matousek, Oct
26, "...My
vehicle's
safety driver
appeared to
take control
from the
autonomous-driving
software at
least three
times. A Zoox
representative
said the
vehicle's
safety driver
took control
only once for
"a
non-safety-related-reason."...
My
ride with Zoox
showed that
its
technology, at
least in the
narrow
confines of a
company-selected route
...Operational
Design Domain...
, can handle
at least some
of the
challenges of
city
driving...." Read more Hmmmm...
Impressive,
but not yet
good enough in
this
Operational
Design Domain
(this route
under these
environmental/traffic
conditions).
To have
anything other
than academic
value, it
can't have the
driver "take
control". To
deliver
societal value
it can't
afford to have
a
driver/attendant..
Until then it
can only loose
money. Alain
B.
Howard, Oct
25, "Apple
co-founder
Steve Wozniak
believes in
technology.
But that
doesn’t extend
to believing
autonomous
driving is
happening
soon. Wozniak,
now 69, says
autonomous
cars that
don’t need a
backup driver
on board
probably won’t
happen “in my
lifetime.” One
culprit:
Artificial
intelligence
probably isn’t
intelligent or
flexible
enough to be
better than
even the worst
drivers.
Wozniak was a
keynote
speaker at the
first J.D.
Power Auto
Revolution
conference,
which the
company set up
to “fuel
innovation and
drive an auto
revolution,”
with a bit
less emphasis
on the how-to
of selling and
marketing cars
than some
other Power
programs....
Wozniak
said, " ..
We’ve got to
have this
machine
learning,
artificial
intelligence
we call it.
It’s not
really
intelligent. AI
is ‘alien
influenza.’"
..." Read
more Hmmmm... I love it..."AI is ‘alien influenza.’"
Alain
D.
Gelles, Oct
18, "For
months, Boeing
has said it
had no idea
that a new
automated
system in the
737 Max jet,
which played a
role in two
fatal crashes,
was unsafe.
But on Friday,
the company
gave lawmakers
a transcript
revealing that
a top pilot
working on the
plane had
raised
concerns about
the system in
messages to a
colleague in
2016, more
than two years
before the Max
was grounded
because of the
accidents,
which left 346
people dead.
In the
messages, the
pilot, Mark
Forkner, who
played a
central role
in the
development of
the plane,
complained
that the
system, known
as MCAS, was
acting
unpredictably
in a flight
simulator:
“It’s running
rampant.”...
“Based on what
he was told,
Mark thought
the plane was
safe, and the
simulator
would be
fixed.”
Flight
simulators
replicate real
cockpits and
are used to
test planes
during
development.
They can
sometimes
behave
unpredictably,
depending on
their
configuration....
" Read
more Hmmmm... A fundamental problem
with
simulators.
What were
pilots seeing
in the planes
that they were
actually test
flying???
Also: "...
Read
the messages
between the
Boeing pilot
and his
colleague
about the MCAS
issue..."
Alain
A.
Van Dam, Oct
22, "Nearly 60
percent of
Uber riders
never tip,
about 1
percent always
tip, and those
who tip leave
an average of
$3, according
to a new
analysis of
the company’s
rollout of
in-app tipping
in 2017. And
if you loved
those gratuity
factoids, rest
assured these
are just the
tip of the
iceberg.
We all have theories or stereotypes about who tips best and which workers earn the most, but honest-to-goodness tipping facts are rare. Economists struggle to get data on gratuities, even though they total about $36.4 billion each year in the U.S. and form a load-bearing pillar of many Americans’ livelihoods. ...
But
this week, we
got a
truckload of
new tip
factoids in an
analysis of
more than 40
million Uber
trips
circulated as
a
working paper
by the
National
Bureau of
Economic
Research. ..." Read
more Hmmmm... A
most
interesting
paper. I
always tip
(unless I
forget). One
must keep in
mind that
tipping was frowned upon at
Uber for
years. "...
The data was
collected
during four
weeks in
August and
September of
2017, soon
after Uber
added tip
support in
June and July
of that year.
..." To me this puts a damper on the findings unless one
is interested
in what
happens during
a transition.
But apparently, things haven't
changed much.
Comment from one of my good friends that drives for Uber: "Alain: if you divide the number of trips into total amount tipped, its pennies on the dollar. Maybe for every 25 rides someone will tip (maybe $2-$3). It’s not worth recording or tracking. This is why Uber and Lyft have so many other built-in incentives in the app to increase revenue for the driver. However, you have to realize, drivers are getting financially screwed no matter which way you total and count it. The wear and tear on the car, gasoline expense and the wear and tear on the drivers physical and mental health should be looked at." Larry. Alain
C.
Weinberg, Oct
21, "Scooter
rental
operator Lime
has touted
itself as one
of the
fastest-growing
startups ever,
blanketing
cities such as
Berlin, Paris
and Los
Angeles with
thousands of
two-wheeled
electric
vehicles. But
the firm is
losing money
nearly as
quickly as it
expands in
part because
the company’s
vehicles tend
to break down
before they
can generate
much cash.
Lime’s
operating loss
is likely to
surpass $300
million this
year, on more
than $420
million of
gross revenue,
according to
financial
projections
viewed by The
Information.
This is the
first detailed
picture to
emerge of
Lime’s
financial
performance,
but details of
the previous
year’s results
couldn’t be
learned. The
big loss in
2019 is
largely due to
significant
expenses such
as the
depreciation
of its
scooters and
how much it
costs to run
warehouses
that repair
and position
the vehicles.
The company
has projected
it would cut
operating
losses in half
next year as
the
reliability of
its scooters
improves,
while pushing
gross revenue
past $1
billion,
according to
the financial
information...."
Read more
Hmmmm... Lyft
Stock Price,
Uber
Stock Price,
Not pretty.
We need some
lipstick here.
Alain
S.
Carpenter, Oct
25, "Michelle
and Gonzalo
Cabezas begin
their nightly
scavenger hunt
at 10. That’s
when they
start looking
for the Lime
scooters that
people rent
and ride by
the minute —
and leave
wherever they
please.
“People take
them to the
darnedest
spots,” Mrs.
Cabezas said
from the
passenger seat
of her
husband’s
cargo van in
northeast Los
Angeles.
The Lime app
was open on
her iPhone,
navigating
toward the
night’s first
bounty, a
sideways
scooter a few
houses from
their own
driveway.
They’d earn
$4.50 to pick
up and
recharge
it..." Read more Hmmmm...
Optimal
Empty Vehicle
Repositioning
the GigWorker
way. Does it
scale? Related
read.
Alain
A. Arp, Oct
25, "...The
group analyzed
all the safety
reports
submitted from
2014-2017,
covering 144
AVs driving a
cumulative
1,116,605
autonomous
miles. They
found that for
the same
number of
miles driven,
human-driven
cars were up
to 4000
times less
likely than
AVs to have an
accident. ... OK, we now have the ceiling,
now what about
the floor and
some
characteristics
about the
distribution
between the
floor and the
ceiling.
Without that
you can't
conclude
anything and
especially not
the next
sentence!
... "This
means that the
autonomous
technology
failed, at an
alarming rate,
to
appropriately
handle a
situation and
disengaged the
technology,
often relying
on the human
driver to take
over...." Read
more Hmmmm... C'mon
Man! The
data reported
by California
DMV doesn't
include the
traffic or
roadway
conditions
during which
those data
were collected
and no data
was collected
in those same
conditions as
to the
"safety" of
conventionally
driven cars
during those
conditions.
For all we
know,
some/many of
those
conditions
included those
where
conventional
drivers would
have crashed
and
disengagements
didn't occur.
For all we
know, the
floor might be
that AVs were
up to 4000
times
less-likely
than
human-driven
cars to have a
crash (they
aren't
accidents).
Its all about
the
assumptions
and the
assumptions
aren't stated,
and if they
were we may
well find them
to be
questionable
at best. C'mon Man!!!
Alain
Z. Shahan,
Oct. 22,
"Tesla Smart
Summon was all
the rage for a
few days on
Tesla Twitter
and Tesla
YouTube. For
one obvious
reason — it’s
fun! More
thoughtfully
(putting on my
serious face),
it’s an
amazing step
forward toward
door-to-door
fully
self-driving
Teslas. That’s
at least half
the excitement
— what it
indicates is
coming, much
more than what
is here today.
As soon as
Smart Summon
rolled out,
tens of
thousands or
hundreds of
thousands of
Tesla owners
were eager to
see what Smart
Summon could
do and what
its
limitations
were. That
included me, a
new Tesla
buddy of mine,
and a friend
of his who
happened to be
in town at the
Supercharger
where we had
decided to
meet...." Read
more Hmmmm... See videos... So
incredibly bad
and totally
irresponsible
of Tesla to
have put this
out there.
Can you
imagine what
these
irresponsibles
would do if
they had
access to a
driverless
car. I guess
I need to
start calling
for the
imposition of
regulations
that ban the
sale of
driverless and
remote
controlled
cars the
general
public. Given
the way that
many misuse
their
conventional
car maybe all
personal car
ownership
should be
banned....
Just kidding ;-). Alain
B.
Anderson, Oct
26, "...the
Tesla begins
to
aggressively
veer to the
left at the
very same
moment a black
Honda Accord
makes a turn
in...." Read more Hmmmm...
See video So bad!!! Not at
cute! Alain
F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund."
April 5, F. Fishkin, "The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines"
April 5, F. Fishkin, "Here comes congestion pricing in New York City...but what will it mean? Former city Taxi and Limousine Commission head and transportation expert Matthew Daus joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Also...Tesla, VW and even Brexit! All on Episode 98 of Smart Driving Cars."
March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
G.
Turnbull, Oct
14, "Fifteen
years ago, the
US Defense
Advanced
Research
Projects
Agency (DARPA)
conducted its
groundbreaking
Grand
Challenge,
which aimed to
accelerate the
development of
autonomous
military
vehicle
technology.
Today, the
commercial
automotive
world is fully
embracing
autonomous
technologies
originally
pioneered
during the
early 2000s,
but can the
same be said
for the
military? ...
- If you get matched with a fully driverless car, you'll see a notification in your Waymo app that confirms the car won't have a trained driver up front....
- you can enjoy having the car all to yourself....
R.
Mitchell, Oct.
4, " Smart
Summon is for
parking lot
use. But
drivers have
other ideas.
Tesla unleashed the latest twist in driverless car technology last week, raising more questions about whether autonomous vehicles are outracing public officials and safety regulators.
...Using
a smartphone,
a person can
now command a
Tesla to turn
itself on,
back out of a
parking space
and drive to
the smartphone
holder's
location - say
at a curb in
front of a
Costco
store.." Read
more Hmmmm.... Russ, great article. A
must read!
Elon,
please stop.
StupidSummon
was a bad
Valley-entitled
idea before
you released
it. Now that
it is out
there it will
ruin all that
is good about
Tesla,
AutoPilot and
Driverless
cars. The
shorters are
going to have
a field day.
While
you are at it
also remove
all of the
DistractTainment
add ons or
limit their
use when
AutoPilot is
NOT on and
drivers are
engaged in
driving. Just
go back to
V09! Along
the way also
get the
Automated
Emergency
Braking (AEB)
system to work
properly (See
NTSB
below).
To do that,
maybe you
should take a
serious look
at Velodyne's
new
Tesla LiDAR.
It may be able
to tell you if
the stationary
object in the
lane ahead is
high enough
above the road
surface before
your AEB
system decides
to disregard
it. Then
Tesla's may
stop decapitating
drivers.
If you don't remove StupidSummon
then at least
be sure to
limit its use
to the Tesla
owner's own
private
property by
responsible
users. (You
know the GPS
coordinates of
where each
owner lives,
so you can
geofence it.
You also know
each
irresponsible
use (You get
the videos).
Irresponsible
use (use in
the violation
of the
conditions
spelled out in
the user's
manual) should
void its
future
availability
in that car
unless proper
amend are
made. If not,
then insurance
companies
should clearly
state that
insuring the
use of this
feature
requires a
substantial
additional
premium; else,
you're not
covered.
Courts should
view that use
of this
feature
implies
premeditated
harm and
demonstrates
an extreme
indifference
to human
life. Parking
Lot owners
should install
signs
forbidding the
use of this
feature on
their property
to protect
themselves
from being
dragged into
the claims
process.
K. Korosec,
Sept 16,
"Waymo
transported
6,299
passengers in
self-driving ...drivered,
not
driverless...Chrysler
Pacifica
minivans in
its first
month
participating
in a robotaxi
pilot program
in California,
according to a
quarterly
report the
company filed
with the
California
Public
Utilities
Commission.
In all, the
company
completed
4,678
passenger
trips in July
— plus another
12 trips for
educational
purposes. It’s
a noteworthy
figure for an
inaugural
effort that
pencils out to
an average of
156 trips
every day that
month. And it
demonstrates
that Waymo has
the resources,
staff and
vehicles to
operate a
self-driving
vehicle pilot
while
continuing to
test its
technology in
multiple
cities and
ramp up its
Waymo One
ride-hailing
service in
Arizona...
The CPUC
authorized in
May 2018 two
pilot programs
for
transporting
passengers in
autonomous
vehicles. The
first one,
called the Drivered
Autonomous
Vehicle
Passenger
Service Pilot
program,
allows
companies to
operate a
ride-hailing
service using
autonomous
vehicles as
long as they
follow
specific
rules.
Companies are
not allowed to
charge for
rides, a human
safety driver
must be behind
the wheel and
certain data
must be
reported
quarterly.
The second
CPUC pilot
would allow
driverless
passenger
service —
although no
company has
yet to obtain
that
permit...."Read
more Hmmmm.... Be sure to look at the Waymo
Quarterly
Report and
that of the
other 3
companies: Zoox,
AutoX
and Pony.ai.
Those 4
companies
reported
respectively [ 4,678; 103; 9; 0] vehicleTrips; [
6,299; 134;
13; 0]
personTrips;
[59,917; 352; ?; 0] vehicleMiles, and [
55; 10; 1; 0]
number
of unique
vehicles used
throughout the
quarter. Note
Waymo only
began
operating on
July 2, the
last month of
the quarter [May, June, July]. Note: the CPUC does not permit
casual
shared-ride
services
(serving
individuals or
groups of
individuals
who weren't
predisposed to
travel
together). Go
figure??? Alain
Also note: This is Drivered Service,
meaning there
is an
attendant/driver
inside each
vehicle for
each trip; so
this is
actually
conventional
ride-hailing,
a la Lyft/Uber
with fancy
schmancy
vehicles. The
CPUC did NOT
require
"disengagement
reporting" so
one has no
idea as to the
extent of
driver/attendant
involvement is
the provision
of the
Drivered
service. It
will be
interesting to
learn if Waymo
considers this
activity to be
part of its AV
testing
program and
includes the
disengagement
performance of
these vehicles
in its
disengagement
report to the
CA DMV at the
end of the
year. We'll be able to infer if that the
disengagement
performance is
exemplary when
Waymo decides
to begin Driverless
service
(w/o an
attendant, as
opposed to Drivered
service).
1. Figure 4, The speed of the Tesla in the last 221 seconds before the crash showing that the Tesla was traveling rather slowly in the 100 seconds before the crash (under 20 mph), but then accelerated (as discussed above) in the 3 seconds just prior to the crash, beginning as soon as the lead SUV changed lanes,
2. Figure 5, the distance between the Tesla and its lead vehicle, showing that the TACC worked really well until the lead vehicle "disappeared" (changed lanes), and"... Data show that at about 490 msec before the crash, the system detected a stationary object in path of the Tesla. At that time, the forward collision warning was activated; the system presented a visual and auditory warning. Data also shows that the AEB did not engage and that there was no driver-applied braking of steering prior to the crash. According to Tesla, the AEB was active at the time of the crash, and considering that the stopped fire truck was detected about half a second before impact, there likely was not sufficient time to activate the AEB." ...This implies that the AEB and its functioning in collaboration with the TACC needs to be substantially re-evaluated/re-designed. Alain
3. Figure 6 which clearly depicts the movement of the Tesla relative to the lead vehicle and the Firetruck in the 15 seconds before the crash. The Tesla's radar and front facing camera mush have "seen' the firetruck 4 seconds before the crash and every sensing loop (1/10th of a second) during the last 4 seconds yet...
M. Isaac,
Aug 27,
"Anthony
Levandowski
was once one
of Silicon
Valley’s most
sought after
technologists.
As a pioneer
of
self-driving
car
technology, he
became a
confidant of
Larry Page, a
co-founder of
Google, and
helped develop
the search
giant’s
autonomous
vehicles. Uber
wooed him to
gain an edge
in
self-driving
techniques.
Venture
capitalists
threw their
money at him.
But on
Tuesday, Mr.
Levandowski,
39, fell far
from that
favored
stature.
Federal
prosecutors
charged him
with 33 counts
of theft and
attempted
theft of trade
secrets from
Google. ...
The criminal
indictment
against Mr.
Levandowski
from the
United States
Attorney’s
Office for the
Northern
District of
California
opens a new
chapter in a
legal battle
that has
embroiled
Google, its
self-driving
car spinoff
Waymo and its
rival Uber in
the
high-stakes
contest over
autonomous
vehicles. The
case also
highlights
Silicon
Valley’s
no-holds-barred
culture, where
gaining an
edge in new
technologies
versus
competitors
can be
paramount....
According to the indictment, Mr. Levandowski downloaded more than 14,000 files containing critical information about Google’s autonomous-vehicle research before leaving the company in 2016. He then made an unauthorized transfer of the files to his personal laptop, the indictment said. Mr. Levandowski joined Uber later that year when the ride-hailing firm bought his new self-driving trucking start-up, which was called Otto....
“The Bay
Area has the
best and
brightest
engineers, and
they take big
risks,” John
Bennett, the
F.B.I. special
agent in
charge of the
San Francisco
Division, said
at a news
conference on
Tuesday. “But
Silicon Valley
is not the
Wild West. The
fast-paced and
competitive
environment
does not mean
federal laws
do not
apply.”Mr.
Levandowski’s
next court
date is Sept.
4. If he is
convicted, he
could face a
maximum of 10
years in
prison, a
$250,000 fine
for every
count and
additional
restitution.
“All of us are
free to move
from job to
job,” said
David L.
Anderson,
United States
attorney in
the Northern
District of
California.
“What we
cannot do is
stuff our
pockets on the
way out the
door.”..." Read
more Hmmm... Central to this
technology is
the perception
of
personal
safety and
trust. Lying,
cheating &
stealing can't
be part of
this industry,
else it will
never emerge
from the
venture
stage. If DeiselGate
and the Uber
crash weren't
enough, let
this be the
next wake-up
call to this
industry to
clean up its
ethical
behavior.
Hopefully the
FBI will also
aggressively
pursue all
cyber
attackers. It
isn't cute,
nor a virtual
reality game.
It is hard
serious work
and creativity
focused on
improving the
quality of
everyday life.
Alain
J.
Browne, Aug
16,
"Autonomous
vehicles are
the future.
Self-driving
cars could
change our
lives,
heralding an
era of greater
convenience,
improved
productivity
and safer
roads...." Read
more Hmmmm.... Actually much of this opening sentence
is a myth...
It doesn't
take
Self-driving
or Driverless
to have
automation
technology
yield safer
roads. It
takes
safe-driving
technology
that works,
like Automated
Emergency
Braking (front
and rear)...
And ... are we
really going
to do our
"manufacturing
or service job
" (increase
"productivity")
if we don't
have to do the
work of
driving
anymore??? Of
the few
"riding
shotgun to
work" what
percentage are
doing work
while riding
shotgun?
Certainly less
than 10%.
Less than 1%?
So much for
productivity
improvements
If we get to Driverless, then the myths aren't
myths. There
will be fewer
private cars,
downtown
congestion
will be
reduced, the
environment
will be saved,
the insurance
industry's
gross revenues
will go down substantially (but
their profits
will go up)
and AVs are
already safer
than humans
that text
and/or are
"under the
influence"
while
driving.
If we don't get to Driverless, then we'll remain with "Do-it-yourself private mobility" that will include Self-driving assistance. Armed with that form of personal mobility, then all the myths are myths: More private cars ... and the policy implications are clear. See: J. M. Greenwald, A. L. Kornhauser "It’s up to us: Policies to improve climate outcomes from automated vehicles". Also, to have a proper perspective of the role of transportation and car/"FordF150s" in greenhouse gas emissions see... M. Sivak, Aug 22, "Increased relative contribution of medium and heavy trucks to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions" Alain
K.
conger, Aug
7, "Uber set
two dubious
quarterly
records on
Thursday as it
reported its
results: its
largest-ever
loss,
exceeding $5
billion, and
its
slowest-ever
revenue
growth. The
double whammy
immediately
renewed
questions
about the
prospects for
the company,
the world’s
biggest
ride-hailing
business. Uber
has been
dogged by
concerns about
sluggish sales
and whether it
can make
money, worries
that were
compounded by
a
disappointing
initial public
offering in
May.
For the second
quarter, Uber
said it lost
$5.2 billion,
the largest
loss since it
began
disclosing
limited
financial data
in 2017. A
majority of
that — about
$3.9 billion —
was caused by
stock-based
compensation
that Uber paid
its employees
after its
I.P.O.
Excluding that
one-time
expense, Uber
lost $1.3
billion, or
nearly twice
the $878
million that
it lost a year
earlier. On
that sariesme
basis and
excluding
other costs,
the company
said it
expected to
lose $3
billion to
$3.2 billion
this
year...Lyft
has also
reported a
series of deep
losses. This
week, it said
it lost $644.2
million in the
second
quarter,
though it
added that it
expected that
amount to
abate. Several
months
earlier, Lyft
had also
posted a
particularly
steep loss
related to
stock-based
compensation
payouts to its
employees..."
Read
more Hmmmm.... No wonder Uber looked so good prior to
its IPO, it
hadn't "paid"
its
employees. So
is this really
a "one time"
expense??
Anyway,
Driverless is
their only
potential
savior as a
$40 stock.
They can't
afford to pay
their
employee,
their gig
workers can't
feed families,
new customers
can't afford
their prices
and food
delivery
generates only
chump change.
Uber
Stock price,
See also...Uber and Lyft keep losing money while driving up the
number of cars
on our
overcrowded
streets.
Alain
A. Hawkins,
July 24,
"Cruise will
miss its goal
of launching a
large-scale
self-driving
taxi service
in 2019, the
GM
subsidiary’s
CEO Dan Ammann
said in an
interview
Tuesday. The
company plans
to
dramatically
increase the
number of its
autonomous
test vehicles
on the road in
San Francisco,
but will not
be offering
rides to
regular people
this year.
Previously, GM
executives
told investors
that its
autonomous
ride-hailing
service would
be open to the
public by the
end of this
year. Now it
seems as if
Cruise is
moving away
from deadlines
and launch
dates
altogether.
Ammann, GM’s
former
president who
now leads its
autonomous
vehicle unit
in San
Francisco,
wouldn’t even
commit to
launching the
service next
year, in
2020....
Cruise is still waiting for the federal government to accept or reject its request to deploy a fleet of fully driverless Chevy Bolt vehicles without steering wheels or pedals. The request was in limbo until this past March, when the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said it would solicit public comments and conduct a review. That process concluded in May, and now Cruise is waiting for a final verdict. “We’re in dialogue with them,” Ammann said of NHTSA. “And nothing further to comment on at this point.”...
It will
also host
community
events to
answer
questions from
residents of
San Francisco
who, in some
respects, are
the company’s
unwitting test
subjects in
its public
self-driving
experiments...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Starting in the Blue Chip cities trying
to serve those
that already
have lots of
mobility
options is
turning out to
be a
fundamentally
flawed
approach.
Wouldn't it be better to start providing mobility to those in areas that aren't currently well served by existing mobility options... cars and transit. Find such places like Central Jersey, Chandler AZ, South Carolina, The Villages and Peoria be precursors to the MountainViews, Washington DCs, Miamis, SFs and LAs. Start there where the need exists and real benefits can be delivered. See also Timothy Lee's take on this. Alain
Tesla,
July 16, "At
Tesla, we
believe that
technology can
help improve
safety. That’s
why Tesla
vehicles are
engineered to
be the safest
cars in the
world. We
believe the
unique
combination of
passive
safety, active
safety, and
automated
driver
assistance is
crucial for
keeping not
just Tesla
drivers and
passengers
safe, but all
drivers on the
road. It’s
this notion
that grounds
every decision
we make – from
the design of
our cars, to
the software
we introduce,
to the
features we
offer every
Tesla owner.
Model S, X and
3 have
achieved the
lowest
probability of
injury of any
vehicle ever
tested by the
U.S.
government’s
New Car
Assessment
Program.
... In the 2nd quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.27 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.19 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.41 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 498,000 miles.... " Read more Hmmmm.... This summary uses "accident" for Teslas and "crash" for NHTSA. This may suggest that the Tesla and NHTSA are not comp[arable... Tesla is reporting about apples and NHTSA is referring to "oranges". That notes; however, it does seem that for Teslas with and without AutoPilot and the other active safety features, there is consistency in the measure. A more detailed question arises about the equivalence of the driving domain for each category as well as who is at fault in each of these situations. Even in light of these issues and details, the large variation in the rates: 3.27 v 2.18 v 1.41 is very significant among Teslas. Seems as if AutoPilot and Tesla's other active collision avoidance safety features are improving safety of Teslas. The spread from the 0.5 value for NHTSA is really astonishing making Teslas much safer than the average of all other cars. Unfortunately these numbers only scratch the surface and beg for more details. In the past I have called for an independent evaluation of the Tesla crash statistics and I do that again there today. I'll offer to do it. Tesla should encourage someone to do it. As it stands today, not enough people believe or trust Tesla (see below) Tesla. That's unfortunate because improved safety is THE major objective of SmartDrivingCar technology. Alain
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
May
24, "About
9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As
the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
This list is
maintained by
Alain
Kornhauser
and hosted by
the Princeton
University
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