A.
Efrati, July
22, "In just
five years,
TuSimple has
become the
biggest and
most visible
developer of
self-driving
trucks,
raising more
cash and
putting more
robotic big
rigs on the
road than any
rival.
High-profile
customers
including UPS
have
contracted to
let TuSimple
haul their
cargo on the
highway.
Executives
have forecast
heady revenue
and predicted
that fully
automated,
driverless
trucks are in
sight.
Instead,
TuSimple has
fallen short
of
expectations,
hampered by
the same
technological
challenges
that have
afflicted
other
developers of
self-driving
vehicles. It
had predicted
several
hundred
million
dollars of
revenue by
this year, but
instead
acknowledges
revenue is
minimal,
according to
the company’s
financial
projections
reviewed by
The
Information.
And it has
fallen short
of its
timeline for
removing human
backup
drivers,
repeatedly..,"
Read
more
Hmmm....
I simply don't
understand why
they have to
be focusing on
Driverless
right from the
beginning.
There is
substantial
RoI for
Safe-driving
Trucks...
reduced
expected
liability
(~$10/truck/year);
improved
comfort,
quality of
work place,
reduced
anxiety, ...
of drivers
yielding
improved
driver
recruiting and
retention;
improved
on-time
deliveries;
... continue
to yield very
attractive
RoIs for just
for
Safe-driving
truck
technology,
aka "Level
1/2". Why
isn't tuSimple
starting with
this
technology to
build its
advanced
distribution
network????
Alain
Video
version of SmartDrivingCars
PodCast 168... Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
O.
Shakkers, July
30, "Tesla
recently
became the
world’s most
valuable
carmaker.
That’s pretty
shocking
since, as
Morgan Stanley
has pointed
out, the
company
generates 0%
of auto
profits, 1% of
auto OEM
revenues and
yet has 30% of
sector market
cap.
If Tesla
wasn’t an
industrial
company that
had to manage
a complex
supply chain,
labor costs
and
distribution,
it might be
easier to
understand how
it could be
valued at an
EBITDA
multiple well
in excess of
pure tech
companies like
Google and
Facebook.
Amazon’s
significantly
more capital
intensive
business might
be the only
comparable
stock, but in
that case, AWS
is the primary
profit engine
and yet
Amazon’s
multiple is
about half of
Tesla’s....."
Read
more Hmmm....
This may well
be the best
explanation.
Does this mean
that China
starts
producing
knock-offs
sold on Canal
Street in NYC?
😁
Alain
A. Root,
Aug. 7, "The
111-year-old
General Motors
is serious
about a future
with all
electric
vehicles, and
about making
sure Tesla,
the husky
teenager on
the automotive
block, doesn’t
shove it into
the shadows.
GM launched
its electric
Lyric Cadillac
SUV Thursday
evening.
It feels a
little odd to
say General
Motors
(ticker: GM)—a
firm selling
millions of
cars
generating
hundreds of
billions in
sales—is
coming for
Tesla (TSLA)—a
company
selling
hundreds of
thousands of
cars
generating
tens of
billions in
sales. But
that’s
automotive
reality these
days....
GM would like to be included in that conversation. The Lyriq will be available in late 2022 and boasts fast charging and a range of 300 miles per charge. Lyriq will start at about $70,000....
GM also boasted the ability to deliver “truly hands-free driver assistance.” That is presumably similar to Tesla’s autopilot, which comes as an upgrade on all Tesla vehicles..." Read more Hmmm... Seems overweight to me and not really a "fashion product" even though it is boasting SuperCruise, its own version of AutoPilot. Technically, SuperCruise may well be better than AutoPilot. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that anyone at GM can sell any technology, let alone make it fashionable. How many units of SuperCruise has the Cadillac dealer network sold to date??? Cadillac claims "over 5M miles driven". One would hope that each sold has been used at least 1,000 miles, if not 10,000 mile. But let's take only 1,000 miles. That means that Cadillac has sold only 5,000 SuperCruise Cadillac CT6 in the 2018 and 2019 model years. A whopping 2,500 per year!!! Now that is depressing!!!! (Or, buyers really love Super,Cruise and have used it, on average, much more that 1k miles meaning that GM has sold even fewer of these, or they've sold a lot more, but buyers don't use it. Neither of which are attractive alternatives). Alain
Wire
release, Aug
6, "Uber
Technologies,
Inc. (NYSE:
UBER)
today
announced
financial
results for
the quarter
ended June 30,
2020.
Financial
Highlights for
Second Quarter
2020
B. Smith,
Aug. 4, "On
Tuesday, Uber
announced that
corporate
employees will
be allowed to
voluntarily
work from home
through June
2021.
"As a company
built on
flexible
working, we
want to
provide our
team with
flexibility,
choice and
longer term
clarity so
they can plan
ahead," the
company said
in a statement
to Business
Insider.
In order to
accommodate
this change,
Uber will be
offering a
$500 stipend
to help
employees with
their home
office setups.
If local
offices open
before June
2021,
employees will
have the
option
returning to
the office if
they feel
comfortable.
Uber said that
whatever
decision
employees make
will not
factor into
performance
reviews.
While the
company said
it will be
reevaluating
the policy for
a possible
extension in
the spring of
2021, the
policy itself
will not be
shortened."...
Read more
Hmmm...
A couple of
obvious
comments: 1.
I guess Uber
will stop
paying rent,
utilities and
everything
else
associated
with
maintaining at
least some
offices which
must amount to
way more than
$500 per
employee, so
the $500 is no
big thing.
This is being
done so as to
not lose as
much money.
Covid is just
a convenient
excuse.
Moreover, the
implication of
this, and the
many others
like it, on
commercial
real estate,
urban and
suburban land
use, home
design and, of
course,
transportation
is colossal.
Alain
Y. Huang ,
K Kockelman,
L. Truong,
Aug, 2020,
"Before Shared
Automated
Vehicles
(SAVs) can be
widely
adopted, they
are
anticipated to
be 27
implemented
commercially
in confined
regions or
fixed routes
where the
benefits of
automation 28
can be
realized. SAVs
would be
likely to
operate in a
traditional
transit
corridor,
replacing 29
conventional
transit
vehicles, and
have frequent
interactions
with other
vehicles as
well as 30
pedestrians.
This paper
micro-simulates
SAVs’
operation on a
5
mile-corridor
to understand
how 31 vehicle
size and
attributes of
SAV-based
transit affect
traffic,
transit
passengers,
and the system
32 cost. The
SUMO
(Simulation of
Urban
Mobility)
package is
employed to
model
microscopic 33
interactions
among SAVs,
transit
passengers,
and traffic.
Results show
that the use
of smaller,
but 34 more
frequent SAVs
leads to
reduced
passenger
waiting times
but increased
total system
travel 35
times. More
frequent
services of
smaller SAVs
in general do
not
significantly
affect general
36 traffic due
to shorter
dwell times.
Overall, using
smaller SAVs
instead of the
large 40-seat
SAVs 37 can
reduce system
costs by up to
3.1% while
also reducing
passenger
waiting times,
under 38
various demand
levels and
passenger
loading
factors.
However, the
use of 5-seat
SAVs does not
39 always have
the lowest
system
costs"..." Read
more Hmmm...
Interesting
micro
simulation of
automated
shuttle
operation on a
corridor.
This is fine
for
traditional
transit
corridors;
however, the
real
opportunity
for driverless
mobility is
for the
provision of
area-wide
service
throughout an
operational
design domain
that encompass
a network, not
a corridor.
The human
labor
requirements
has painted
conventional
transit into
corridors and
schedules.
Mobility
demand is
realy between
many places
scattered
throughout an
area at
essentially
any time.
That's why
people buy and
use cars.
Scheduled
corridor
services
aren't
competitive
for most
trips.
Automation's
opportunity to
replace the
driver
throughout an
operational
design domain
that
encompasses a
network of
even just a
small subset
of streets
enabling walk
access to and
from a wide
area enables
high-quality
on-demand
service that
can compete
for usership
with the
personal
automobile.
(and is a
"life-saver"
for those that
don't have
access to a
car.) Alain
A.
Thompson, Aug.
7, " SpaceX
successfully
launched
dozens of
Starlink
internet
satellites and
two small
Earth-imaging
satellites
into orbit
Friday (Aug.
7) in the
second of
what's
expected to be
a series of
Starlink
rideshare
missions.
A two-stage
Falcon 9
rocket
carrying 57
SpaceX
Starlink
satellites,
along with two
BlackSky
Global
Earth-observation
satellites,
lifted off at
1:12 a.m. EDT
(0512 GMT)
from Pad 39A
here at NASA’s
Kennedy Space
Center.
It was the
fifth launch
for this
Falcon 9's
first stage.
And the
booster pulled
off yet
another
landing this
morning,
settling
softly onto
the deck of
SpaceX's "Of
Course I Still
Love You"
droneship in
the Atlantic
Ocean about
eight minutes
after liftoff.
This is
SpaceX's 10th
Starlink
mission since
2019, and the
company's 12th
overall
mission for
2020. SpaceX
has been
relying on its
fleet of used,
flight-proven
boosters to
sustain a
rapid launch
cadence. The
company has
had a stellar
summer, with
the launch and
landing of two
NASA
astronauts on
the Demo-2
mission to the
International
Space Station
— a first for
a private
company — and
isn’t slowing
down anytime
soon. ..." Read
more Hmmmm.... Elon
is on a
roll!!! See
video of
launch.which
includes a
spectacular
view of the
recovery
landing of the
booster. So
impressive!
Hopefully
Starlink will
soon start
offering
service.
We need it now
so that we can
have some
semblance of a
level
WiFi-access
field as we
teach remotely
for the coming
academic
year.
Starlink may
be a way for
all of our
students to
have
high-quality
internet
service.
Alain
J. Kaplan,
Aug 7, "As the
coronavirus
pandemic
continues to
temporarily —
or perhaps
permanently —
alter the
college
experience,
two Princeton
graduates have
come up with a
new idea:
instead of
students
taking online
courses from
their bedrooms
and couches,
they'll take
them from a
luxe "bubble"
hotel full of
other students
in the same
boat.
It's called
The U
Experience;
come fall, it
may be hosting
150 students
at hotels in
Arkansas and
Hawaii — and
it's currently
accepting
applications.
The idea
began,
according to
24-year-old
cofounder Lane
Russell, when
Harvard said
it would shift
to remote
learning for
the fall, but
would continue
to charge full
tuition.
"It really
made us think
about, 'What
is the thing
that college
is offering,
and what are
students
getting out of
it?" Russell
said. "And we
think that,
even if a
college is
announcing
something that
indicates that
the experience
is actually
worth $0, a
lot of
students
probably do
value it much
higher than
that."..." Read
more Hmmmm....
Brilliant! A
total
no-brainer!
Alain
B.
Templeton, Jul
28,
"Researchers
presenting at
the annual
“Automated
Vehicle
Summit” which
opened Monday
in the
virtual-conference
world demanded
that Tesla
TSLA -2.5%
institute
camera based
driver
monitoring in
Tesla
Autopilot.
Tesla’s
Autopilot
contains a
rudimentary
system to
assure people
are still
paying
attention to
the road. It
can sense if
you apply
force to the
wheel, and
typically when
you hold the
wheel with a
bit of grip,
there will be
occasional
torque forces.
If it doesn’t
detect any
such force, it
signals
alerts, first
on the screen,
eventually
with sound,
and eventually
by slowing the
car to a stop.
It’s not a
super accurate
system — it is
possible to
hold the wheel
quite well and
not get
detected, and
it’s also
possible to
deliberately
“defeat” it by
attaching a
weight to the
wheel to apply
just enough
force.
Other systems,
such as GM’s
“Super-Cruise”
actually use a
camera to
monitor the
driver and see
how much
attention is
being paid the
the road. The
most
sophisticated
systems track
the eyes of
the driver,
and note how
much time is
spent looking
ahead, or down
at the
controls, or
at a phone, or
checking the
mirrors. They
can insist you
don’t take
your eyes off
the road for
too long, even
if you keep
your hands off
the
wheel...." Read
more Hmmmm.... Yes, AutoPilot should do
much more to
ensure that
drivers don't
mis-behave
while using it
and the Super
Cruise eye
tracker is a
fine system.
The article
also contains
an excellent
discussion of
Tesla's safety
claims. It is
unfortunate
that Tesla
hasn't been as
forthright as
it could be in
making sure
that apples
are compared
to apples
instead of
to oranges
when they make
their safety
claims. As
i've noted
before Tesla
should release
their data to
an independent
entity: me,
Brad, or
someone
else... or all
of us... so
that at least
most of us can
become
comfortable
that apples
are indeed
being compared
to apples. An
important
aspect of the
is, that even
with driver
mis-use and
mis-behavior
of autoPilot
which could be
addressed with
an eye
tracker, its
safety record
may well be
very
impressive.
Alain
Z. Shahan,
Aug. 1,
"...The second
quarter of
2020 saw a
slightly worse
result for
Tesla than the
first quarter
in terms of
accidents per
million miles
driven with
Tesla
Autopilot
engaged (see
graph below),
but keep in
mind that the
first quarter
had a record
result.
Additionally,
the difference
was so small
that it was
probably not
statistically
significant.
On the other
hand, Tesla’s
Q2 figure was
far better
than the US
average —
about 10 times
better with
Autopilot
engaged.
Here are the
key
statistics:
1 accident
every 4.53
million miles
when Autopilot
engaged
1 accident
every 2.27
million miles
when Autopilot
not engaged
but active
safety
features
active
1 accident
every 1.56
million miles
without
Autopilot and
without active
safety
features
1 accident
every 479,000
miles — US
average...
Read
more Hmmmm.... As Brad pointed out
above, the "US
average" from
NHTSA may not
be the same
"accident"
that are
reported by
Tesla.
Tesla's
reported
Crashes (which
are rarely
accidental),
may well not
be the same as
what NHTSA
defines as a
"crash" Are
they dings,
air-bag
deployments,
police
reported
...??? .
One must assume that Tesla is
consistent
within its own
definition;
however, the
driving
environment is
likely very
different in
the three
categories.
One may more
likely engage
AutoPilot on
open roads and
freeways where
driving is
substantially
more simple
that on
complex urban
or rural
streets.
Why Tesla allows active safety
features to be
turned off
seems totally
irresponsible
unless one is
using the car
in extremely
weird
situation,
like driving
in very deep
snow or down
river beds,
??? In those
situations one
would expect
the driver to
remain very
aware and be
driving very
cautiously.
I'm surprised
that Teslas
are used in
these
challenging
driving
situations. I
suspect (I
hope) that
this is a very
small amount
of the Tesla
fleet
mileage,
Again, why
does Tesla
allow the
safety
features to be
turned
off???? Also
please release
the data to
allow an
independent
assessment to
be made.
Alain
Aug. 4,
"Ford has
changed CEOs
for the third
time in six
years, the
company
announced on
Tuesday.
Current CEO
Jim Hackett
will step down
in October and
be succeeded
by his
handpicked
deputy, Chief
Operating
Officer Jim
Farley.
Hackett made
some
significant
changes to try
to make Ford
more
profitable.
Most
dramatically,
Hackett
cancelled most
of Ford's car
lineup in the
US so the
company can
focus on its
more
profitable
trucks and
SUVs. Ford
then announced
plans for $11
billion in new
investments in
electric and
hybrid
vehicles—even
as it laid off
almost 20
percent of its
European
workforce.
"We made some
significant
decisions in
the earliest
days that were
quite
controversial,"
Hackett said
on a Tuesday
conference
call. "Getting
out of the
sedan business
was a
difficult
question."
...Wall Street hasn't been impressed. The company's stock has lost about 40 percent of its value since Hackett took over in 2017. And that was on top of stock-price declines under Hackett's predecessor, Mark Fields...." Read more Hmmmm.... It is what it is. Alain
S. Clark,
Aug. 7,
"United Launch
Alliance and
SpaceX beat
out Northrop
Grumman and
Jeff Bezos’
Blue Origin
for billions
of dollars in
U.S. military
rocket
contracts, and
will share the
load in
launching the
Pentagon’s
highest-priority
national
security space
missions
through 2027,
officials
announced
Friday.
ULA, the 50-50
joint venture
formed in 2006
by Boeing and
Lockheed
Martin, will
get 60 percent
of the
military’s
most critical
satellite
launch
contracts
awarded
through late
2024 for
missions that
will take off
between 2022
and late 2027.
SpaceX will
receive 40
percent of the
national
security
launch
contracts over
the same
period, the
Pentagon
said. The
Pentagon did
not select
proposals
submitted by
Northrop
Grumman and
Blue Origin.
The agreements
cover
contracts to
launch
satellites for
the U.S. Space
Force, the
National
Reconnaissance
Office, the
Missile
Defense
Agency, and
other military
services and
agencies,
providing an
anchor
customer for
SpaceX and
ULA.
“This is a
groundbreaking
day,
culminating
years of
strategic
planning and
effort by the
Department of
the Air Force,
NRO, and our
launch service
industry
partners,”
said Will
Roper,
assistant
secretary of
the U.S. Air
Force for
acquisition,
technology and
logistics.
“Maintaining a
competitive
launch market,
servicing both
government and
commercial
customers, is
how we
encourage
continued
innovation on
assured access
to
space.”..." Read
more Hmmmm.... This
is an
enormously big
win for
SapceX.
They've been
able to put
its nose into
possibly the
most protected
military-industrial complex tent. SpaceX could well be the first new
entrant in
that closed
cabal since
before WWII.
Alain
M. Sivak,
Aug 8,
"Light-duty
vehicles (cars
and light
trucks) are
being
purchased
primarily by
individuals,
while heavy
trucks by
companies.
Therefore, an
examination of
the recent
changes in the
sales of
vehicles in
these two
classes
provides some
information
about the
economic
impact (both
actual and
anticipated)
of the current
pandemic on
individuals
and companies.
(I have shown
recently that
during this
pandemic
light-truck
sales declined
less than car
sales.)
Given the
above
rationale, the
present
analysis
examines the
sales of
light-duty
vehicles and
heavy trucks
in March
through June
of 2020—the
first four
months of the
current
pandemic—by
comparing them
with the
corresponding
sales in
February 2020.
The raw data
for the
calculations—annualized,
seasonally
adjusted
vehicle
sales—came
from the
Federal
Reserve Bank
of St. Louis.
(Several of
the values
were recently
updated.) The
results are
shown in the
following
table....
The main
finding is
that the peak
decline in the
sales of
light-duty
vehicles was
greater and it
occurred
earlier than
the peak
decline in the
sales of heavy
trucks.
Specifically,
the peak
decline for
light-duty
vehicles was
about 48% and
it occurred in
April 2020,
compared with
the peak
decline for
heavy trucks
of about 32%
in May 2020."
Read
more Hmmmm....These are big declines,
meaning that
the logistics
sector is
backing off on
investments.
Hopefully not
so much that
the sector
begins to
collapse. It
is fairly
amazing that
the logistics
sector has
functioned as
well as it has
during this
pandemic.
Alain
A.
Townsend, Aug.
3, "he first
self-driving
vehicles were
ships. After
centuries of
wrestling with
wind and
waves, ancient
sailors
devised
contraptions
that harnessed
these forces
of nature to
fill in for
man. They were
simple but
ingenious
solutions,
like the
sheet-to-tiller
system, which
is still used
today.
To rig it,
you simply
take the jib
sheet (the
rope that
controls the
smaller sail
up front) and
run it around
a pulley and
back across
the deck.
Finish by
tying the
bitter end to
the tiller
(the stick
that steers
the boat).
Now, when a
gust hits and
the boat
starts to
round up into
the wind, the
jib will pull
the rope
around the
pulley and
yank the
tiller,
steering the
vessel back
the opposite
way.
Tricks like
this helped
clever
mariners
relieve the
fatigue of
long shifts at
the helm
during the Age
of Sail. You
can use it to
crack open a
cold one and
enjoy the
spray as your
yacht plows
through the
whitecaps like
a train on
rails. And
while tillers
were
repurposed to
steer the
first
automobiles,
this old
technique
didn’t make
the leap from
sea to land —
though we can
imagine some
frightful,
fruitless
attempts to
make it do so.
By 1891, the
introduction
of the
steering
wheel, by
Benz, put the
matter to
rest.
On land,
self-steering
actually got
harder when
machines
replaced
animals.
Motorization
was a vast
improvement
over draft
animals’
muscle power,
but the gain
came at the
expense of
brain power.
It had long
been common
for riders on
horseback, and
even cart
drivers, to
fall asleep at
the reins.
Their dutiful
animals would
simply keep
following the
road or stop
dead in their
tracks.
Cars and
trucks,
however,
needed drivers
to guide them
second by
second. Their
soaring
popularity,
combined with
the growing
risks posed by
their weight
and speed,
birthed a
variety of
experimental
self-steering
schemes. One
1925
demonstration
of a remotely
controlled
vehicle in New
York City
offered a
glimpse of
driverless
autos to come,
simultaneously
tantalizing
and terrifying
the public.
Cruising down
Broadway
before
thousands of
onlookers, the
optimistically
named American
Wonder drove
“as if a
phantom hand
were at the
wheel,”
reported the
New York
Times.
In the
1920s, motor
vehicles
claimed tens
of thousands
of lives
annually — a
death rate 18
times higher
than today.
This new
technology
promised to
render city
streets safe
once again.
But those
hopes were
soon dashed
when the
futuristic
vehicle’s
operators lost
control —
first at
Sixty-Second
Street and
again moments
later at
Columbus
Circle —
before finally
crashing the
would-be
wonder into
another
vehicle.
Despite this
early misstep,
the auto
industry
continued to
daydream about
remote-controlled cars. At the 1939 World’s Fair, the Futurama exhibit
by General
Motors
featured an
enormous
motorized
diorama of an
American city.
Free-flowing
highways plied
by
self-driving
cars, trucks,
and buses
crisscrossed
bustling
districts of
slender
skyscrapers.
There was even
a “traffic
control tower”
where, the
future city’s
designers
imagined,
dispatchers
would direct
the movements
of tens of
thousands of
vehicles by
radio. By the
1950s, guide
wires embedded
in the road
surface had
replaced radio
as the
preferred
technology for
remote-controlled vehicles. Ironically, it was RCA, the Radio
Corporation of
America, that
staged the
first
successful
demonstration
of this
approach in
the
1950s...." Read
more Hmmmm.... CliffsNotes to his new
book Ghost
Road.
Alain
Staff, Aug.
8, "A town in
Gunma
Prefecture
will kick off
trials for an
autonomous
amphibious
tour bus this
winter as part
of a project
to foster
tourism and
facilitate the
transport of
goods between
islands.
The trial will
be the first
of its type in
the world,
according to
the town of
Naganohara.
The amphibious
bus began
manned
operations
last month
around Yamba
Dam, a
long-delayed
project that
was finally
completed in
March...."
Read more Hmmmm...Total one-off and nothing
but
Click-bait.
Alain
These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information…head to www.motoetf.com
F.
Fishkin July
29, "In the
midst of a
pandemic, what
is the future
of ride
sharing and
mobility?
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin are
joined by
Robin Chase
and Carlos
Pardo of the
New Urban
Mobility
Alliance and
the director
of the
Institute for
Transportation
Studies at U C
Davis, Daniel
Sperling to
dig into the
challenges
ahead."
F. Fishkin, July 20, "Is Driverless home delivery the fastest route to Affordable Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged? ... "
F. Fishkin, July 2, "Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. ." ... Alain
F. Fishkin,
June 2, "But
the debate is
not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
Video version... Watch our first attempt.... Alain
Press
release, July
28, "For more
than 50 years,
CES® has been
the global
stage for
innovation.
And the
all-digital
CES 2021 will
continue to be
a platform to
launch
products,
engage with
global brands
and define the
future of the
tech industry.
An all-digital
CES 2021 will
allow the
entire tech
community to
safely share
ideas and
introduce the
products that
will shape our
future. You’ll
be able to
participate in
all the
awe-inspiring
moments of CES
wherever you
are in the
world. We are
designing a
unique
experience for
the tech
industry...."
Read
more Hmmm....
Wow! Thank
you CES this
is exceedingly
responsible of
you. Hope to
be back in Las
Vegas in
2022. Fred
and I will
help however
we can to make
2021 very
successful.
Alain
Company
News, July 22,
"Back in 2016,
we announced
our very first
OEM partner:
Fiat Chrysler
Automobiles
(FCA). Since
then, we’ve
worked closely
with FCA to
integrate our
Waymo Driver
into FCA
vehicles, and
together we’ve
made
self-driving
history in the
proven,
capable,
L4-ready
Chrysler
Pacifica
Hybrid
minivan,
including
launching the
first
commercial
autonomous
ride-hailing
service,
beginning to
offer fully
driverless
service to our
riders, and
driving in
dozens of
cities across
diverse
geographies
and
challenging
weather
conditions.
Now, we’re
pleased to
share that
we’ve
strengthened
our
partnership
with FCA in
several
important
ways.
FCA has
selected Waymo
as its
exclusive,
strategic
technology
partner for L4
fully
self-driving
technology
across FCA’s
full product
portfolio.
We’ve already
started to
work together
to imagine
future FCA
products for
the movement
of people and
goods operated
by the Waymo
Driver.
In addition,
Waymo will
work
exclusively
with FCA as
our preferred
partner on the
development
and testing of
L4 autonomous
light
commercial
vehicles* for
goods
movement,
including in
Waymo Via. We
will initially
target
integration of
the Waymo
Driver into
the Ram
ProMaster van,
a highly
configurable
platform that
will enable
access to a
broad range of
global
commercial
customers....
" Read
more Hmmm....
This is big!
WayFCA v
AmaZoox
(+Rivian)!
Only
challenges:
a. WayFCA is missing the Customer leg of the 3-legged stool. It is only the Zoox (+Rivian) part of AmaZooRiv. Does FedEx or UPS or USPS or WalMart or Maycy's (heaven forbid) or Sears (heaven forbid squared) or ??? make the Trinity to take on AmaZooRiv, plus
b. Is the Technology rather than
the Customer
is wagging the
WayFCA??? dog.
In any even, Affordable (Driverless) Home Delivery of Stuff may well be the Elijah for Affordable (Driverless) Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged as we debated in SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 004 AmaZooks. Alain
M. Sena, August 2020, "Are we ready to be online carscribers? Online new car sales and car subscription programs, now being pursued simultaneously by car OEMs, will either lead the OEMs to endless highways paved with gold or two large dead ends. Each of these approaches to putting customers behind the wheel of a car are aimed at different pain points—real or perceived—in the purchase process. With online sales, the customer is in theory spared the visit to car dealers except. Car subscription programs go one step further. The customer is also decoupled from the dealer and in addition is, in theory, shielded from having to care about most of the responsibilities related to car ownership. Who benefits, who thinks they benefit and who loses, either in the short term or in the long term. Continue reading
Dispatch Central: Battery
Electric
Vehicle News
Continue
reading
Musings of a Dispatcher: The Way Forward: We Continue to Wander in the Desert Continue reading
Postscript on the China Series: In The disciples of liberal democracy can be forgiven for believing that China would become one of them if it was invited into the World Trade Organization. It was their belief—hope—that more trade with liberal democracies would would make China a libral democracy that drove the decision to open up to China. Although Continue reading..." Read more Hmmm.... Listen to PodCast 165 or watch ZoomCast 165. AlainPress
release, June
15,
"The U.S.
Department of
Transportation
today
announced nine
companies and
eight States
that have
signed on as
the first
participants
in a new
Department
initiative to
improve the
safety and
testing
transparency
of automated
driving
systems, the
Automated
Vehicle
Transparency
and Engagement
for Safe
Testing (AV
TEST)
Initiative.
The
participating
companies are
Beep, Cruise,
Fiat Chrysler
Automobiles,
Local Motors,
Navya, Nuro,
Toyota, Uber,
and Waymo.
The States are
California,
Florida,
Maryland,
Michigan,
Ohio,
Pennsylvania,
Texas, and
Utah.
“Through this
initiative,
the Department
is creating a
formal
platform for
Federal,
State, and
local
government to
coordinate and
share
information in
a standard
way,” said
U.S.
Transportation
Secretary
Elaine L.
Chao. ...
This
initiative
aligns with
the
Department’s
leadership on
automated
driving system
vehicles,
including AV 4.0: Ensuring American
Leadership in
Automated
Vehicle
Technologies."
Read
more Hmmm...
Excellent.
This is really
good because
it is promotes
and organizes
the open
sharing of
safety
information
assoiated with
automated
driving.
This is
extremely
important
because safety
of these
systems is a
necessary
condition for
their
adoption.
Unfortunately, a few things seem to be missing from the
announcement.
R. Dale Hall, June 12, "...By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines...." Read more Hmmm... Excellent! An enormous amount here. See especially FIg 11 and 17. These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, ... An enormous amount to digest here. Excellent. Alain
M.
Sena, May 26,
"Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
has three
facets. Two of
them are
mainly of
interest to
vehicle OEMs
and their
suppliers.
They are
vehicle-centric
and
customer-centric.
Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency
notification,
logistics
tracking and
over-the-air
updating.
Customer
centric
connectivity
includes many
services that
are also
provided by
mobile apps
outside of the
vehicle, such
as music
streaming,
workshop
service
booking,
traffic
notifications
and car
sharing
applications.
Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
today is a
major
competitive
factor for the
OEMs.
The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it....
Lance
Eliot, April
28, "Several
self-driving
car luminaries
assembled
online via a
Zoom-casted
battleground
this week to
undertake a
Lincoln-Douglas
style debate
about the
future of the
Autonomous
Vehicle (AV)
self-driving
car industry
and the advent
of AI-driven
mobility.
Originally
scheduled for
one hour, the
dialogue and
fielding of
audience
questions
prompted the
superstars to
keep going,
tackling many
of the most
vexing and
unsolved
matters that
underlie the
potential
success of
self-driving
vehicles,
encompassing
both
autonomous
cars and
autonomous
trucks.
The lively
discussion was
civil and
polite,
fortunately so
in these times
of seemingly
stark
polarization
and guttural
attacks during
our
contemporary
public
discourse.
Yet, even in
the realm of
eloquent
argumentation,
at times the
gloves came
off and there
were some
fierce zingers
and moments of
rather
piercing
cut-the-air-with-a-knife
verbal
sparring..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for
the kind and
thorough
synopsis of
our 1st
Zoom-inar. We
were all
pleased by the
turnout,
interaction
and substance.
Alain
V.
Bajaj, April
22,"A main
benchmark for
the price of
oil fell
negative for
the first time
ever this
week. The
decline —
more than 300
percent in
daily trading
— raised fresh
questions
about the
damage the
coronavirus is
having on the
global
economy.
What does it
mean for oil
prices to be
negative?
A benchmark
price for a
barrel of oil
to be
delivered next
month fell to
-$37.63 on
Monday, which
means that
sellers would
have to pay
someone that
much to take
it off their
hands.
But that
historic
plunge was
exacerbated by
a quirk in how
the oil
markets work.
The negative
price
concerned only
contracts for
delivery of
barrels in May
that are
traded on
so-called
futures
markets. At
the same time
trading
happens for
May
deliveries,
people trade
on contracts
ending in
June, in July
and so on." Read
more Hmmmm... What??? I realize that
I'm often "out
of it",
but... In all
my life I have
NEVER...
thought of,
let alone
mentioned, nor
have heard
anyone else
mention the
concept of negative
oil!
Often, talked
about $150/B
oil, $250/B,
S20/B even
$7/B oil.
NEVER $0/B
oil,
negative
Oil...
NEVER,NEVER,
NEVER!!!! and
look where we
are. UNBELIEVABLE!!!
Implications:...
no one's
models
extrapolate to
that regime.
(it requires
extrapolation
because no
data exists in
this
unimaginable
region.
Listen to Pod-Cast;
Watch Zoom-Cast
Alain
R. Bishop,
Mar 24, "I met
Stefan
Seltz-Axmacher
for the first
time in
November 2015
at the Florida
Automated
Vehicles
Summit. Not
long after, we
met at the
Blue Danube
coffee shop in
Alameda, CA so
he could tell
me about his
vision for
Starsky
Robotics. When
he
energetically
described his
remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. “Remote driving is
hard,” I said.
“The military
has struggled
with this for
years. Its
harder than it
looks.” On the
technical
side, latency
for secure
communications
is
challenging.
On the
operational
side,
re-creating
enough on-road
reality
(situational
awareness) for
a remote
driver is
difficult when
going for the
high levels of
safety needed.
Seltz-Axmacher
remained
bullish on the
approach and
at that time
went on to
found Starsky
Robotics as
one of the
earliest truck
AV startups,
later closing
a $16.5M
Series A
funding round
in March 2018,
and then
hauling
freight while
developing
both remote
and automated
driving
ability.
Initially,
Starsky’s
concept was
all about
remote driving
for first/last
mile. They
later expanded
their offering
to include
fully
automated
highway
driving on
limited
freight
corridors.
Now, Starsky
has become the
first casualty
within a
crowded truck
automation
space, and
Seltz-Axmacher
has provided
us with an
intriguing
post-mortem in
a recent
Medium post.
Most of the
media coverage
I’ve seen has
acted as echo
chambers for
Seltz-Axmacher’s
perspective.
Here I offer a
counterpoint
based on my
longtime
involvement in
truck
automation
plus
discussions
with many
others in the
truck
Automated
Driving
Systems (ADS)
startup space,
many of them
irate at what
they see as
unfounded
assertions
made in the
original post.
My sources
tell me that
because
Seltz-Axmacher
hasn't
experienced
their
technology nor
been briefed
on their
technical/safety
approach, he
has no basis
to make
sweeping
claims about
the entire
industry...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Listen
to PodCast 148.
or/and Watch
us on YouTube.
Alain
K. Korosec,
Mar. 17,
"Waymo said
Tuesday it is
pausing
operations of
Waymo One, a
service in the
Phoenix area
that allows
the public to
hail rides in
self-driving
vehicles with
trained human
safety
operators
behind the
wheel, in
response to
the COVID-19
pandemic.
Waymo is also
halting
testing on
public roads
in California.
However, Waymo
will keep some
operations up
and running,
notably its
truly
driverless
vehicles,
which don’t
require a
human safety
driver,
according to
an
announcement
on its website
Tuesday. These
driverless
vehicles are
used in the
Phoenix area
as part of
Waymo’s early
rider program
that lets
vetted members
of the public
hail a
ride..." Read
more Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the
latest is not
so good... Waymo has suspended all services, including
the
driverless.
Poopie!!!
Alain
Kyle
Vogt, Jan 17,
"In a few
weeks the
California DMV
will release
disengagements
data from
Cruise and
other
companies who
test AVs on
public roads.
This data is
really great
for giving the
public a sense
of what’s
happening on
the roads.
Unfortunately,
it has also
been used by
the media and
others to
compare
technology
from different
AV companies
or as a proxy
for commercial
readiness.
Since it’s the
only publicly
available
metric, I
don’t really
blame them for
using it. But
it’s woefully
inadequate for
most uses
beyond those
of the DMV.
The idea that
disengagements
give a
meaningful
signal about
whether an AV
is ready for
commercial
deployment is
a myth. ..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Amen! This is a MUST
read. As with
everything, details
matter. It is
true that
figures don't
lie, but but
it is easy to
game systems
such that
figures,
without the
underlying
details, do
lie. As Kyle
points out,
there are
important
details
associated
with
disengagements.
These need to
be well
understood for
disengagements
to be a proxy
for safety and
market
readiness. The
when, where
and associated
details of
each
disengagement
is critically
important if
the objective
is safety and
market
readiness.
What is also most important here
is the
underlying
objective of
the companies
doing the
tests and
reporting the
data. As has
happened in
our secondary
education
where students
are taught
what is in and
how to take
the SATs
rather than
just learn.
The objective
is not
learning , but
getting 800s
on the SATs so
that they can
get into
'Princeton'.
This is
perpetuated by
the
'Princetons'
of this world
that don't
look into the
details of the
student's
academic
qualities and
capabilities.
In the
academic
world, we know
these students
as 'box
checkers',
gamers of the
college
admission
process. The
gaming is
continued by
the 'banks and
med schools'
that use
simplistic GPA
(Grade Point
Average, aka
'disengagements')
cutoffs. The
'box checkers'
then take
'underwater
basket
weaving'
courses and
become grade
grubbers. It
is lazy and
irresponsible
to use
simplistic
measures as
proxies to
very complex
concepts such
as
intelligence,
creativity,
compatibility,
and all the
other details
that make a
good student,
a good
employee, a
good citizen,
a good
mobility
system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig". It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? AlainA. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSight is standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="79" height="131">
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
R.
Wile, Nov 22,
"Sen. Jeff
Brandes (R-St.
Petersburg)
had just
finished
serving in the
Army, and was
looking to
make a name
for himself in
Tallahassee as
a junior
representative.
He came across
a talk given
by the founder
of Google’s
driverless car
project.
He quickly
realized the
potential of
self-driving
cars to
transform many
aspects of
daily life.
Ever since, he
has made it
his mission to
turn Florida
into what he
calls “an
angel
investor” in
automation
policy. “We
want to have
policies in
place for this
technology to
flourish,”
Brandes said
in an
interview at
the 7th Annual
Florida
Automated
Vehicles
conference in
Miami, which
concluded
Friday.
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
May
24, "About
9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As
the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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Kornhauser
and hosted by
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