M.
Sena,July/Aug.
'21, "In
this issue of
The Dispatcher
for July and
August, I
have taken up
a subject in
the lead
article that
has been on my
list for quite
some time. It
is of how cars
that drive
themselves
keep
themselves on
the road while
they make
their journey
to their
destination.
It turns out
that there is
a very good
reason why
Teslas crash
and Waymo is
running around
only in
Chandler,
Arizona after
people who
didn’t know
better
promised that
there would be
completely
driverless
cars on all
roads a decade
ago:
localization
of a moving
vehicle is
very, very
hard, even for
a human.
I encourage
you to read
Musings this
month. It’s
about making
the journey to
a world
without
climate change
protests, a
world where
they either
won’t be
necessary or
allowed. On
most journeys,
we have to
cross bridges.
Sometimes we
have to make
them
ourselves.
Think of the
article as the
first bridge
to cross
toward a
better
understanding
of the climate
change
journey.
Dispatch
Central
contains, as
usual,
something for
everyone.
Insurance is
addressed in
the two main
articles. In
Bits and
Pieces I have
added my
thoughts on
recent events.
This is a
double issue,
in part
because we are
going to try
to do more
this summer
than we could
do last. But
it’s also
because I need
some extra
time to work
on a follow-up
to the
Princeton
SmartDrivingCars
Summit with
Professor
Alain
Kornhauser.
There was a
concrete
proposal put
forward by
Professor
Kornhauser
during the
last session,
and many of us
who took part
in the Summit
have committed
to try to work
on
implementing
that proposal.
Read more Hmmmm... . Once again an
outstanding The
Dispatcher.
I happen to
have a diffent
fundamental
view on"exact
localization"
than Michael,
many and
possibly even
everyone
else... As
usual, I'll
take a very
self-centered
view... I've
lived my whole
life without
knowing (or
caring to
know) my
"exact
location".
I've been
satisfied to
know: "sort
of... where am
I?" but
exact...where
am I? ... not
so much.
What troubles
me about the
"exact where
am I" is that
this exactness
is in some
coordinate
system. Where
is the origin
of that
coordinate
system and is
moving? Oh,
it's the
"center" of
the earth??
Or some
"reference
point". So
"exact" is
actually,
"exact
relative to
some reference
point. Little
seems to ever
be said about
the
"exactness" of
the reference
point, but
that may
actually be
some saving
grace about
"exact".. it
is "exact"
relative to
some reference
point.
I
see.. If the
reference
point is the
center of the
Universe, then
I'd better be
really-really
precise; else,
small small
changes mean
big-big
differences.
If the
reference is
the center of
the earth,
then I may
just need to
be really
precise; else,
small changes
mean big
differences.
However, if
the reference
point is my
nose and I'm
trying to stay
between two
white lines
and not hit
anything, then
the precision
to which I
need to know
where things
are may not
need to be
very precise
as long as I
have a little
bit of leeway
and still stay
between the
lines and
leave enough
room around
the various
objects to not
hit them.
OK,
safe driving
requires only
knowing where
I am relative
to objects
around me to a
moderate level
of precision.
I can do it in
two ways...
take the
difference
between two
values:
location of
object and my
location. The
farther away
the reference
point, the
more precise
they will need
to be if
precision of
the difference
is to be
maintained.
Consequently,
if the
measurements
are relative
to my nose,
the need for
about as small
as it can
get.
Moreover,
any precision
data base
lacks some
"most"
important
values.. 1. a
precise value
for my
location and
2. a precise
value for
anything
around me that
moves (meaning
it wasn't at
its current
location when
the HD
database was
assembled).
Required is
the ability in
real time to
locate and
track objects
relative to me
(my nose, the
hood ornament
of my car, ..)
with only some
precision
These objects
and their
location
aren't
included in
these
precise/HD
databases.
What is needed
is a very
reliable means
of identifying
objects and
determining
their position
and velocity
with little
latency. This
is absolutely
necessary;uyr;y necessary for the moving objects, might as well do it
also for the
stationary
objects. 😁
Alain
Please don't suggest that one needs an HD map database in order to run their SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping) algorithm. That algorithm needs as input the relative position (sensor observations) of objects . The capability to determine those inputs is all that is needed to do collision avoidance, so don't even bother going through the SLAM computation and certainly don't pay for a reference data set.
[log in to unmask]" _mf_state="1" title="null" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
Staff, June 29," The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) today exercised its authority by issuing a Standing General Order requiring manufacturers and operators of vehicles equipped with SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) or SAE Levels 3-5 automated driving systems (ADS) to report crashes. This action will enable NHTSA to collect information necessary for the agency to play its role in keeping Americans safe on the roadways, even as the technology deployed on the nation’s roads continues to evolve. ..." Read more Hmmmm... Excellent. You MUST read the Standing General Order. Alain
M.
Rosekind, June
2021,"...Our
design
objective is
for our
vehicles to be
free of any
single point
of failure
from a safety
perspective.
So we’ve
designed a
number of
innovative and
redundant
features that
allow the
vehicles to
continue to
operate safely
even if
certain safety
systems become
unavailable.
We rigorously
test and
validate our
autonomous
driving
technology to
ensure safe
operations
within our
operational
design domain
(ODD). Before
tires ever hit
pavement, we
test our
autonomous
technology via
simulation and
an integrated
hardware/software system affectionately called LabBot...." Read more Hmmmm... . There is a lot here.
A must read as
are each of
the driverless
vehicle
developer's
Safety
reports.
Alain
A. Hawkins, June 22, "Zoox released the second version of its safety report today, containing new details about the vehicle that the Amazon-owned company is building from the ground up to be completely autonomous. The vehicle, which looks like an oversized toaster on wheels, lacks typical controls like a steering wheel and pedals and is designed to be bidirectional, meaning it can travel in either direction. And while that could in theory increase the chances of passengers getting sick, Zoox says its specialized design will make it one of the smoothest rides around..
Zoox is also touting its vehicle’s bidirectional capabilities, meaning it will never have to “back up,” which should improve passenger pickups. “No more U-turns, no more three-point turns,”..."Read more Hmmmm... Agreed that bi-directional capability is important; however, it is hard to imagine that the positives outweigh the negatives. Directionality is important in travel of people. Packages, are indifferent, so may be OK for package delivery in the early morning hours. Up and readily back out of a driveway and keep going. Alain.
L. Chen,
June 21,
"Amazon.com
Inc. has
placed an
order for
1,000
autonomous
driving
systems from
self-driving
truck
technology
startup Plus
and has
acquired the
option to buy
a stake of as
much as 20%,
Plus said in a
regulatory
filing,
confirming an
earlier
Bloomberg
report.
Amazon has the
right to buy
preferred
shares of Plus
via a warrant
at a price of
$0.46647 per
share, the
filing shows.
That amounts
to a roughly
20% stake
based on
Plus’s shares
outstanding
before its
planned merger
with special
purpose
acquisition
company
Hennessy
Capital
Investment
Corp. V.
The Sequoia
Capital
China-backed
company, which
is developing
autonomous
driving
technology for
long-haul
trucking, is
set to have a
valuation of
$3.3 billion,
adding $500
million in
proceeds to
accelerate its
expansion, the
company said
in a statement
in May. The
company raised
$150 million
via so-called
private
investment in
public equity,
or PIPE, from
funds
including
BlackRock Inc.
and D.E.
Shaw...." Read more Hmmmm... Maybe? Here is Henessy's
Registration
Statement
from Friday,
June 28.
Another SPAC
in this space.
Got a bump on
June 18, 10
days prior to
the
registration
statement.
How does that
happen???? Is
Plus really
better than
Waymo, Aurora,
Zoox, Robotic
Research,
TuSimple,
... No FOMO
here. Alain
A.
Hawkins, June
21, "Amazon
owns a
robotaxi
company,
is experimenting
with delivery
robots
that drive on
the sidewalk,
and now is
considering
acquiring a
big stake in a
robot trucking
startup.
According
to Bloomberg,
the e-commerce
giant recently
placed an
order for
1,000
autonomous
driving
systems from
Plus, a
California-based
company
working on
driverless
trucking
technology.
Amazon is also
considering
buying a 20
percent stake
in Plus — a
move that
could have
serious
implications
for how the
company moves
its products
around the
world.
Amazon is
thinking about
buying as much
as 20 percent
of Plus, which
recently
announced
plans to go
public via a
reverse merger
with a special
purpose
acquisition
company, or
SPAC. The
company plans
to merge with
Hennessy
Capital V, a
SPAC that also
sponsored the
public debut
of EV startup
(and recent
target of a
Securities and
Exchange
Commission
investigation)
Canoo...." Read more Hmmmm... Andrew's take on Amazon's
initiative.
Alain
A.
Hawkins, June
21, "Volvo
plans on
offering the
lidar — and
artificial
intelligence-powered
safety
features — of
its upcoming
electric
vehicle as
standard, but
the Swedish
automaker
plans on
charging extra
for its
semi-autonomous
systems, like
the hands-free
Highway Pilot.
Volvo’s fully
electric
successor to
the XC90 SUV,
to be revealed
in 2022, will
have two new
components
that have
never appeared
on a Volvo
vehicle before:
a lidar sensor
produced by
Luminar and an
onboard
“autonomous
driving
computer”
powered by
video game
hardware
manufacturer
NVIDIA.
Those two
pieces of
hardware will
help enhance
Volvo’s
traditional
safety
features, like
automatic
emergency
braking and
blind spot
detection,
before the
company is
ready to start
rolling out
more
autonomous
features to
customers,
said Volvo
chief
technology
officer Henrik
Green."...."
Read more Hmmmm... Hopefully the LiDar will
make
essentially
perfect
Volvo's
Automated
Emergency
Braking
system. No
more rear
ending, deer
strike or any
other
collisions. I
hope. Can
this become
true? Safety
STARTS with an
Automated
Emergency
Braking System
that actually
prevents
collisions.
If these LiDar
sensors don't
do that, then
they should be
free because
they aren't
worth
anything.
Alain
S. Levine,
June 9, "For
people
reluctant to
gamble with
waiting in Las
Vegas traffic,
The Boring
Company has a
new option:
going
underground.
Elon Musk's
subterranean
venture
announced that
operations at
its Las Vegas
Loop have
begun this
week.
The $48.7
million
project
enables people
to visit one
of three
stations and
hitch a ride
in a Tesla
(NASDAQ:TSLA)
Model 3 or
Model X to
travel around
the 1.5 mile
loop that
connects the
Las Vegas
Convention
Center campus.
Based on
testing that
the company
completed in
May, the Loop
can transport
more than
4,400 people
hourly at a
speed of about
35 miles per
hour -- a far
cry from the
autonomous
travel at high
speed that was
the original
vision of the
project...." Read more Hmmmm... It is a start. Now let's
see if it can
blossom.
Alain
A. Hawkins, June 15, "...Lidar, a key ingredient in autonomous driving, is a laser sensor that uses near-infrared light to detect the shapes of objects. This helps autonomous vehicles “see” other road users like cars, pedestrians, and cyclists, all without the help of GPS or a network connection....." Read more Hmmmm... Please... Forget about autonomous anything until you finally get Automated Emergency Braking to work "perfectly". "Seeing" other road users doesn't "need" GPS nor have time for a "network connection" The above statement is just noise. Agan.. a Necessary Condition to have an uncrashable car is and Automated Emergency Braking System that is essentially perfect. It requires the real-time determination of the "free-volume" ahead such that the car does not crash into anything. That free-volume is not only "width" and "depth" but also "height" . Just ask Joshua Brown. Alain
H. Poser'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines" . See slides, See video Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain
Virtual on July 12-15, 2021
These
editions re
sponsored by
the SmartETFs
Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information
head to www.motoetf.com
C. Mims, June 5, "..." Read more Hmmmm... Not to be defensive, but I will be...
"In 2015, Elon Musk said self-driving cars
that could
drive
“anywhereâ€
would be here
within two or
three years."
...
According to
my definition,
from day-one
(>9 years
ago), of my 3
(very)
different
types of
SmartDrivingCars:
In 2016, Lyft CEO John Zimmer predicted they would “all but end†car ownership by 2025.
... Hopefully by then, that thought will be in at least some minds. Putting some blemish on what the Mad Men created as an absolute human desire would be a substantial achievement....
In 2018, Waymo CEO John Krafcik warned autonomous robocars would take longer than expected.
...
Nothing wrong
here...
In
2021, some
experts
aren’t sure
when, if ever,
individuals
will be able
to purchase
steering-wheel-free
cars that
drive
themselves off
the lot...."
...
From the
beginning
and continue
today I argue
that there is
no market
in the
personal
ownership of
Driverless
Cars. Why own
it??? I can't
even drive
it!!! Just to
sit in my
driveway???
I'm going to
make it a
business???
I'll be the
smallest
businessman in
the world,
bearing on my
shoulders the
highest form
of personal
responsibility,
the life &
safety of my
customer. NOT
GONNA HAPPEN!!!
Also...
please, not
everyone
promised
anything. And
I haven't even
mentioned Steve Schladover
who has been
stalwart in
his efforts to
advance this
technology in
a realistic
context.
The
Society of
Automotive
Engineers had,
and continue
to have, an
opportunity to
bring realism
to this
community by,
at the very
least, simply
dropping any
reference to
anything
called "Level
5". If SAE
wishes to be
humble and
brave, they
can also
apologize for
even
suggesting
that Level 5's
"everywhere"
could ever
exist within
the lifetimes
of any current
or soon to be
member of SAE.
By creating
the category,
SAE baited the
Mad Men,
Sunday
Supplementers
and Click-Bait
folks into
fantasizing
something
envisioned by
a reputable,
serious
organization.
C. Metz,
May 24, "...
So what went
wrong? Some
researchers
would say
nothing —
that’s how
science works.
You can’t
entirely
predict what
will happen in
an experiment.
...
It's not an
experiment if
you can
predict the
outcome. Why
bother doing
it???
More importantly, Mother Nature is involved and you don't know what she is going to throw at you. Which is why simulations are not the complete answer... They'll only regurgitate what you told them to do (which is somewhat useful because they implicate together the things that you thought you knew, giving you new insights.). The challenge is, She's not involved in the simulation but She is every time you do it... But that's life and that's what makes it exiting and worth living.... The self-driving car project just happened to be one of the most hyped technology experiments of this century, occurring on streets all over the country and run by some of its highest-profile companies....
Self-driving
tech is not
yet nimble
enough to
reliably
handle the
variety of
situations
human drivers
encounter each
day. It can
usually handle
suburban
Phoenix, but
it can’t
duplicate the
human chutzpah
needed for
merging into
the Lincoln
Tunnel in New
York or
dashing for an
offramp on
Highway 101 in
Los Angele ...
True! But
getting it to
work in the
Nevada desert
and then
Pheonix is an
enormous
accomplishment.
Frank
didn't just
roll out of
the womb and
make it in New
York. He also
went through
"..the
blues..."
where he could
actually sing
and be
appreciated in
the "..small
towns..."
before he made
it in NYC. It
took GM
about '12
seconds'
to realize
that the
required human
chutzpah was
way to much to
get started
and they were
outathere.
“If you
look at almost
every industry
that is trying
to solve
really, really
difficult
technical
challenges,
the folks that
tend to be
involved are a
little bit
crazy and
little bit
optimistic,â€
he said.
“You need to
have that
optimism to
get up every
day and bang
your head
against the
wall to try to
solve a
problem that
has never been
solved, and
it’s not
guaranteed
that it ever
will be
solved.†...
Absolutely
true. By
definition! (I
also like to
say that you
need to be
fundamentally
stupid; else,
you would have
known how hard
it was going
to be and you
would have
just played
golf or video
games in your
parent's
basement...)
“These
cars will be
able to
operate on a
limited set of
streets under
a limited set
of weather
conditions at
certain
speeds,â€
said Jody
Kelman, an
executive at
Lyft. “We
will very
safely be able
to deploy
these cars,
but they
won’t be
able to go
that many
places.†...
Yup!! There is
absolutely
nothing bad
about that.
Go someplace
else. It
doesn't need
to be much
tougher that
"Chandler". It
doesn't really
need to be any
"bigger" than
"Chandler".
Waymo needs what Chandler doesn't have.. Customers ... Definition: folks whose quality-of-life can be substantially improved by what Waymo's Technology can readily deliver today. )
That's the
market side of
this
initiative
that Silicon
Valley seems
to have
forgotten.
Cool
Technology
doesn't
happen, just
because it is
Technology.
Technology
happens
because it is
Cool. Cool is
the value
proposition,
not
Technology:
else we'd have
Segways
and people
wearing GoogleGlass
all over the
place.
Assisted
Driving (what
I call
Self-drivingCars,
or, sorry, SAE
Level 1 and
Level 2, or
Tesla
AutoPilot) are
Cool (That
technology
delivers
Comfort and
Convenience to
those that can
afford and
wish to buy
cars). The
buyer/customer
just relies,
for the most
part, that
engineers are
making sure
that the
Technology
works.
Customers
demand that
the Technology
adds to
what they
already enjoy
(Cool). Their
attention span
is really
short. The "lipstick"
wears off
quickly.
For
Driverless...
not so much
Cool in
Chandler.
Maybe as a
fling, or a
tale, but
actually, the
negatives,
largely
outweigh the
positives,
think
GoogleGlass.
Few move or
stay in
Chandler
unless you
have a car
(~70%
Households
have 2 or more
cars).
'everyone' has
their own
car. So while
the Waymo
technology
might work in
Chandler, it
doesn't have
enough
Waymophiles
(customers for
whom Waymo
substantially
improves what
they already
have for
themselves) to
make it a Go.
However,
take
"Trenton". 70
% of the
households
have one or
zero cars.
Many more
Trentonians
have the
opportunity to
appreciate the
incremental
value that
Waymo will
bring to their
lives. They
will more
easily become
Waymophiles
if Waymo
delivers in
Trenton what
Waymo has well
demonstrated
the "Cool"
that it can
deliver in
Chandler.
Even if Waymo
shuts down
until the few
roads that it
uses are
plowed the few
times it snows
in Trenton.
Trenton is
Waymos's
(Ford/Argo
&
GM/Cruise as
well) "New
York".
In
short... While
Chandler is an
ideal place
for Waymo to
start getting
its Technology
working,
Trenton is a
great place
for them to
deliver
societal
value, which
is supposed to
be the
fundamental
mission of
these Google "X.Projects" ... ..."
...X’s primary
output
is
breakthrough
technologies
that have the
potential to transform
people’s
lives and
become large,
sustainable
businesses."
Waymo
One, May 13,
"... I started
taking it to
work, and
after
crunching the
numbers for
gas,
maintenance,
insurance,
upkeep, and
owning a
depreciating
investment, it
was pretty
much a
no-brainer
that we really
didn't need
two cars. I
sold off my
car and made
Waymo my
choice for
commuting to
and from work
and for trips
my wife and I
need to take
when the other
is using our
car..." Read more Hmmmm...This is really great that
he "crunched
the numbers"
and found it
to be "pretty
much a
no-brainer",
which is what
every real
Waymo customer
in Chandler
has to do to
become a Waymo
customer. One
"doesn't move
to Chandler
unless one has
"two cars". See
slide 5:
70% of the
households
have 2 or more
cars in
Chandler, so
most of the
folks have had
to do the math
to become a
customer. If
Waymo offered
the same
service in
Trenton, where
70% of the
households
have at most
one car and
30% don't have
any, then it
doesn't take
much number
crunching to
appreciate
Waymo when
walking is the
next best way
to go.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the "easiest" ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
R.
Diamond, May
13, "Join SAFE
for an event
focused on the
importance of
autonomous
vehicles to
our national
and economic
security and
outlining
pathways for
the safe
deployment of
autonomous
vehicles.
The event will
feature
remarks from
Dr. Steve
Cliff, Acting
Administrator
of NHTSA, a
discussion
between
industry
leaders, and
the release of
a report, "A
Regulatory
Framework for
AV Safety," by
O. Kevin
Vincent,
Associate
General
Counsel,
Regulatory at
Lucid...." Read
more Hmmmm... A must watch,
complemented
by the Vincent
report and
our latest PodCast below.
Alain
229
Sherrerd Hall Princeton University Princeton, NJ [log in to unmask] 609-258-4657 (o) 609-980-1427 (c) |
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="90" height="100" border="0"> |