2021-08-14
August 13, 2021 blue; text-decoration: blue; text-decoration: none;”>31st edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
CMU’s Posner Lays Track for Future of Rail Transit
M Henninger, Aug 11, “A bright orange, battery-powered train breaks the lush green stillness of Rockhill Furnace, Pennsylvania, as it traverses track originally laid in 1876. At the helm in a bright green/yellow safety vest, Meg Richards tweaks the throttle and brakes as the two-car train passes by baseball fields, crosses streets and completes the day’s test run.
Along for the
ride, Henry
Posner III,
the chairman
of Railroad
Development
Corporation
(RDC) and an
adjunct
instructor at
Carnegie
Mellon
University,
sits eager to
demonstrate
his vision for
a rail-based
mass transit
system in the
United States.
The original
concept for
Pop-Up Metro —
a
battery-powered,
modular train
that can be
inserted onto
existing
infrastructure
— evolved in
parallel with
his Department
of History
class, The
American
Railroad-Decline
and
Renaissance in
the Era of
Deregulation.
“There are more possibilities for railroads than you might think,” said Posner, who together with his wife, University Trustee Anne Molloy, is also a generous benefactor of CMU. “A lot of urban areas in this country have underutilized freight lines that could also support transit service. People might not have considered these opportunities because it’s been perceived as too expensive, too lengthy and too risky. With Pop-Up Metro, you can do that project quickly on a demonstration basis. You don’t have to spend $100 million.”…” Read moreHmmmm… Watch video. Fantastic for those not ready for SmartDrivingCars and those that are, inducing yours truly. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 228, Zoom-Cast Episode 228
Planes, Trains & Automobiles
F. Fishkin, Aug 13, “Planes, trains and automobiles. From battery powered electric light rail to the confusion over the difference between driver assistance and self driving to Amazon’s new 1.5 billion dollar U.S. air cargo hub…the focus is on the latest in mobility. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 228 of Smart Driving Cars. “ Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!”. Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay … Alain
The
SmartDrivingCars
eLetter,
Pod-Casts,
Zoom-Casts and
Zoom-inars are
made possible
in part by
support from
the Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For
more
information: [www.motoetf.com](https://www.smartetfs.com/). Most funding is
supplied by
Princeton
University's
Department of
Operations
Research &
Financial
Engineering
and Princeton
Autonomous
Vehicle
Engineering
(PAVE)
research
laboratory as
part of its
research
dissemination
initiative
DECISION AUTHORIZING DEPLOYMENT OF DRIVERED AND DRIVERLESS AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE PASSENGER SERVICE
CPUC, Nov 23, ‘20, “This decision creates two new autonomous vehicle programs that authorize fare collection (deployment programs), one for drivered autonomous vehicles and the other for driverless autonomous vehicles. Among other requirements, applicants to the existing driverless pilot program and the new driverless deployment program must submit Passenger Safety Plans that outline their plans to protect passenger safety for driverless operations.
In addition,
the decision
establishes
four goals
that apply to
both the
existing pilot
programs and
the new
deployment
programs; 1.)
Protect
passenger
safety; 2.)
Expand the
benefits of AV
technologies
to all of
Californians,
including
people with
disabilities;
3.) Improve
transportation
options for
all,
particularly
for
disadvantaged
communities
and low-income
communities;
and 4.) Reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions,
criteria air
pollutants,
and toxic air
contaminants,
particularly
in
disadvantaged
communities.
The Commission
will collect
data to
monitor permit
holders'
progress
toward each of
the goals...."
[Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/fiwy5ou01zo6tp6/CA%20PU%20Autonomous%20Vehicle%20Deployment%20Decision.PDF?dl=0) Hmmmm...
I included
this one
because I
messed up the
link to the
paper. ...
Sorry for not reporting this sooner, and thank you Doug Coventry for bringing it to my attention. It is must reading for any jurisdiction making regulations regarding the provision of autonomousTaxi mobility.
Its four goals are laudable, especially the 3rd, even if it may end up violating part of the 4th. Moreover, the clauses of the 3rd should be re-ordered to be: … Improve transportation options for disadvantaged communities, low income communities and those with disabilities, and, if possible, for all… This also reduces the goals to 3 important ones, … safety, the environment and improved mobility for those that have been left behind by the personal automobile
Of course, one wants to improve mobility for those that drive their own personal car; however, that is a entrenched well-served set of customers that are not readily going to flip from driving their car to something that isn’t really better and may largely be perceived as no cigar. Certainly, the public sector should in no way use public resources to give car drivers yet another good but inferior choice as was done with many public transportation investments that actually provide inferior mobility to those that were to be attract as customers. These systems are rebuffed by many that they were intended to be taken off the road for the trips they already make, let alone deliver quality-of-life benefits by providing mobility to new places that they couldn’t previously access.
A properly designed Operational Design Domain focused on from and where low income communities want to go is, to my mind, where the best opportunity exits for these safe, environmentally responsible systems . In such ODDs these driverless aTaxis can actually improve quality-of-life; and thus, deserve accommodation and promotion by public agencies such as CPUC. Alain
Do You Know How Well Your Car Drives Itself?
S. Carty, Aug. 11, “You don’t have to go deep down an internet rabbit hole to find evidence that humans will push boundaries.
The relatively
recent
introduction
of
semi-autonomous
technology in
cars has led
to all sorts
of documented
bad behavior,
from folks
putting water
bottles on
their steering
wheel to
drivers
letting Jesus
take the wheel
as they climb
into another
seat. The
former can
trick a car
into thinking
a driver's
hands are
where they
should be; the
latter is
wildly
dangerous....
But ultimately, people will continue doing stupid things for stupid prizes like adrenaline rushes and internet infamy. “Any safety feature sort of puts constraints on the driver or the vehicle,” says Mindell. “People will try to push those limits, even if it’s for no other reason than making YouTube videos.” Read more Hmmmm… Since drivers will continue to try to mis-behave and use products irresponsibly, it is up to the products themselves to protect themselves from such misbehaviors. These are supposedly such intelligent products, they should also be sufficiently intelligent to sense that they are being misused and either stop the misbehavior or turn off the functionality that is being misused. If children play with toys inappropriately, some of us just took away the toy. And only gave it back when the value of the proper enjoyment of the toy to the kid was greater than that gained by the mis-use of the toy.
I’m confident that Tesla can add to AutoPilot sufficient intelligence for it to know when it is being mis-used. What Elon needs to do is disable its use when it is misused… Does one really need to go faster than 14 mph over the speed limit? Does one really need to pass on the right? Does one really need to completely space out when behind the wheel (or yoke)? One MUST stay in the driver’s seat paying attention to what is going on. Alain
It’s Not Just Tesla: All Other Driver-Assist Systems Work without Drivers, Too
D. Vanderwerp, Aug 11, “Most new cars have very similar driver-assistance capabilities. Not that a consumer would know, given all the names automakers attach to these aids and the distinct indicators each employs. Lane-keeping or centering assistance uses one or more cameras to detect lane markings and applies appropriate nudges to the steering to keep the vehicle between the lines. Adaptive cruise control in most cases uses radar to track vehicles ahead and adjusts your car’s speed to the flow of traffic. Together these two features can steer, accelerate, and brake a car. The best examples might even lull drivers into believing the computers are capable of handling the driving for extended periods. That’s a mistake. None can be trusted to mind the road and avoid obstacles to the point that a driver is not required. .” Read more Hmmmm… A very good article. As I commented above, these systems must become much more intelligent about prohibiting mis-use. It is fine that Car & Driver did all of this on a “closed course”. The systems have good enough GPS receivers to know that they are on closed courses and not public highways and could readily let those that are not on public highways do as they wish; however, on public highways it should be much more difficult to misbehave. Impossible to completely control as there will always be someone who thinks that they are being cute enough, but that needs to be made much more of a rarity. Alain
[For Many, Hydrogen Is the Fuel of the Future. New Research Raises Doubts](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/climate/hydrogen-fuel-natural-gas-pollution.html) H. Hitachi,
Aug 12, "It is
seen by many
as the clean
energy of the
future.
Billions of
dollars from
the bipartisan
infrastructure
bill have been
teed up to
fund it.
But a [new peer-reviewed study](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ese3.956) on
the climate
effects of
hydrogen, the
most abundant
substance in
the universe,
casts doubt on
its role in
tackling the
greenhouse gas
emissions that
are the driver
of
catastrophic
global
warming.
The main
stumbling
block: Most
hydrogen used
today is
extracted from
natural gas in
a process that
requires a lot
of energy and
emits vast
amounts of
carbon
dioxide.
Producing
natural gas
also releases
methane, a
particularly
potent
greenhouse
gas...." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/climate/hydrogen-fuel-natural-gas-pollution.html) Hmmmm...
The abstract
of [the paper](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ese3.956)concludes:
"...Our
analysis
assumes that
captured
carbon dioxide
can be stored
indefinitely,
an optimistic
and unproven
assumption.
Even if true
though, the
use of blue
hydrogen
appears
difficult to
justify on
climate
grounds..."
Whew!!! Alain
Don’t buy the latest climate-change alarmist
B. Lomorg, Aug 9, “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change just released its latest climate report, and reactions from politicians and media pundits could not have been more predictable.
Fitting the
apocalyptic
narrative many
have [spun](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/24/opinion/sunday/climate-change-floods-wildfires.html)
lately, the
always-breathless
[Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/aug/09/humans-have-caused-unprecedented-and-irreversible-change-to-climate-scientists-warn)
literally
summarized
this
scientific
report as
finding
mankind
"guilty as
hell" of
"climate
crimes of
humanity."
(Needless to
say, the
report never
says any such
things.)
UN
Secretary-General
António
Guterres
called the
findings a
"code red for
humanity,"
saying we can
only avert
catastrophe by
acting in the
next couple of
months. Of
course, the
United Nations
has a long
history of
claiming
catastrophe is
right around
the corner:
The first UN
environment
director
claimed half a
century ago
that we had
just 10 years
left, and the
then-head of
the IPCC
insisted in
2007 that we
had just five
years left.
In contrast to
the
hyperventilating
media, the
report is
actually
serious and
sensible (and
very, very
long). It
doesn't
surprise,
since it is a
summary of
already-published
studies, yet
it reconfirms
that global
warming indeed
is real and a
problem.
But it also
highlights how
much one-sided
thinking takes
place in the
climate
conversation.
Since the heat
dome in June,
there has been
a lot of
writing about
more heat
deaths. And
the IPCC
confirms that
climate change
indeed has
increased
heatwaves.
However, the
report equally
firmly, if
virtually
unacknowledged,
tells us that
global warming
means "[the frequency and intensity of cold extremes have decreased.](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf)"
This matters
because
globally, many
more people
die from cold
than from
heat. A new
study in the
highly
respected
journal [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext)shows that
about half a
million people
die from heat
per year, but
4.5 million
people die
from
cold....." [Read more](https://nypost.com/2021/08/09/dont-buy-the-latest-climate-change-alarmism/) Hmmmmm.... None of this is
easy. We still have a lot of hard work
to do. Alain
Watch Plus Testing Level 4 Autonomous Truck without a Driver
J. Ramey,Aug. 11, “Autonomous tech developer Plus has recently completed a real-world demonstration of its Level 4 autonomous truck technology on a traffic-filled highway. The company tested the truck without a driver behind the wheel, and also without any other remote operator who could take control of the truck if needed. The test took place on the Wufengshan highway in the business hub of the Yangtze Delta region, with Plus being the first company to be granted a special permit to test Level 4 vehicles in the country….” …” Read more Hmmmm… See video. Whoa!!! Wait a minute… totally irresponsible… “… tested… without driver behind the wheel, and also without any other remote operator who could take control of the truck if needed…“ If true…
1. totally irresponsible because this was a test. Its results would have been just as valid had there been no disengagements by the “driver” even if something unexpected happened. Plus does not earn more points by irresponsibly not having an attendant on-board ready to take over and save the day should something bad begin to happen. Hopefully no one else does tests this way in the US or Europe. It’s not OK in China, either.
2. Good thing this took place in China; although, not really… Plus was totally irresponsible for doing this in China as well as everywhere else.
3. I’ve been on traffic-filled highways in China. The video shows a truck with some traffic. “traffic-filled” is unadulterated hype. The video actually looks staged. Only a few other cars around. No other trucks. Truck passing to the right of “left-lane hangers”. Again, my limited experience of riding in China, is that in light traffic conditions some Chinese drivers drive very fast and, it is not New Jersey… very few “left lane hangers”.
4. Steering wheel is very jerky. Is that the way professional truckers steer? Seems like some improvements are needed in their lateral control algorithm.
5. Hard to believe that the Chinese government would really let them test like this unless it was staged. Alain
Take a look at the forked road in Yosemite that tricked Tesla’s autopilot system
G. Kay, Aug..
12, "... The
driver, known
on Reddit as
BBFLG, [posted](https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/oxhbit/5_tesla_accidents_in_same_location_in_yosemite/)
about his
experience in
a Reddit
thread. He
said his Tesla
Model X
crashed into a
boulder when
it tried to
navigate the
forked road.
.." [Read more](https://www.businessinsider.com/take-a-look-at-road-that-tricked-teslas-autopilot-system-2021-8) Hmmmm...
Very nice that
this person
posts warnings
where
AutoPilot may
not work as
well as
expected, so
as to help
Tesla improve
AutoPilot and
contribute to
the message
that AutoPilot
requires that
the driver
remain alert
and ready to
override
mistakes that
AutoPilot may,
and surely
will, make.
But how bad of a driver do you need to be? or how clueless do you need to be? to be approaching the pictured fork at 25 mph and improperly negotiate that fork, or have plenty of time to grad a hold of the wheel and save the day!???? That doesn’t completely absolve Tesla because its automated Emergency Braking System should have seen the bolder ahead and should have stopped the Tesla from hitting it, irrespective of AutoPilot/FSD/orAnythingElse!!! C’mon Elon/Tesla, get that AEB system working properly. It’s giving you a very bad name!!! You MUST stop Teslas from crashing into stationary objects!!!!!!! C’mon, you can do this!! Try leading in that for a change. Moreover, this article is completely Click Bait. Alain
Motional to begin testing driverless vehicles on streets of LA
J. Daleo, Aug, 11,”… Autonomous vehicle (AV) company Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai Motor Group (OCTUS: HYMTF) and global technology company Aptiv (NYSE: APTV), announced an expansion of its West Coast operations, including new investments in an operations facility and road testing in Los Angeles, a new San Francisco Bay Area office, and a doubling of its California team’s size.
Motional has
seen rapid
growth over
the past 18
months, during
which time the
company has
finalized its
joint venture,
extended its
operations in
Asia to Seoul,
South Korea,
and grown its
headcount by
nearly 150%.
Looking ahead,
the company is
set to begin
public testing
and road
mapping in Los
Angeles this
month with its
new robotaxi,
the Hyundai
IONIQ 5. It's
the company's
first round of
testing in the
city,
complementing
ongoing trials
in Boston,
Pittsburgh,
Las Vegas and
Singapore...."
[Read more](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/motional-to-begin-testing-driverless-vehicles-on-streets-of-la) Hmmmm...
Nice; however,
it is still a
"gonna" and
will have
attendants on
board, so it
is still
testing, not
doing.
Hopefully
their ODD will
include Watts
and not just
the
"Brentwoods of
LA". Alain
Automated Vehicle Systems Outlook, 2021 Update
D. Hall, July 26, “Listen to Alain Kornhauser, Ph.D., Faculty Chair of Autonomous Vehicle Engineering at Princeton University and one of the authors of Automated Vehicle Systems Outlook, 2021 Update discuss this research report with host, R. Dale Hall, FSA, CERA, MAAA, CFA, SOA Managing Director of Research.” Read more Hmmmm… Nice, of course. 😁 Alain
Survey Cites Cautious Consumer Acceptance of AVs
J. Irwin, Aug. 11, “… Almost half of consumers in the U.S., U.K. and Germany believe it will be more than three years before fully functioning autonomous vehicles are available, a survey shows.
The survey by
Klas, a
provider of
edge
intelligence
solutions,
also shows
nearly 20% of
respondents
would be
willing to pay
an additional
$10,000 to
obtain AV
technology...."
[Read more](https://www.wardsauto.com/vehicles/survey-cites-cautious-consumer-acceptance-avs)Hmmmm...
Another
essentially
useless survey
because it is
unlikely that
the survey
properly
described
"fully
functioning
autonomous
vehicle" or
what
"available"
means, else
100% of those
surveyed would
have said
">3 years"!
If available means “the next time you are considering buying a new car, the availability of a car that can take your 12 year old to little league practice and bring her home all by herself, is a buyable option on your list”… No one will say… anything but “> 3 years”. Most will probably say… “not in my lifetime”. I’ll say… “not in my kid’s lifetimes”!
Sure.. I can buy a Tesla today.But a Tesla is not any where near a “fully functioning “ anything. Again… “not in my kid’s lifetimes”! Alain
Daimler and Bosch to end joint “Robotaxi” development project M. Merano, Aug. 11, “Daimler has stated that its partnership with Bosch to develop self-driving taxis is coming to an end. The German car manufacturer and Bosch confirmed the news with Süddeutsche Zeitung, a German publication.
According to
Daimler, the
two companies
are in the
midst of
ending their
joint project,
dubbed
"Athena."
Bosch also
confirmed that
discussions
for the end of
the joint
venture were
being held.
While the
partnership
appears to be
concluding,
the companies'
individual
ventures into
self-driving
systems don't
seem to be at
an end.
Daimler
reportedly
told the
German
publication
that both
parties agreed
to "focus on
their
individual
development
paths in the
future in the
highly complex
development
environment of
fully
automated and
driverless
driving in an
urban
environment."
Inside sources
familiar with
the inner
workings of
Project Athena
have also
reported that
Daimler
employees who
had been
working on the
project have
already been
assigned to
other teams.
..." [Read more](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-daimler-bosch-ends-self-driving-taxi-partnership/)Hmmmm...
Not the best
news about the
future of autonomousTaxis. Given that aTaxis are fundamentally disruptive to
Daimler's and
Bosch's
current
markets and
they each have
much more to
gain by making
Automated
Emergency
Braking and
Intelligent
Driver Assist
systems
(Safe-drivingCar
and
Self-drivingCar
& Truck
technology).
Driverless
aTaxis (and
driverless
Trucks) are
way too hard
of a
distraction to
them. Likely
nothing but
negative RoIs
for them. So,
for them this
makes a lot of
sense. They
really have no
chance of
being among
the few
winners in
this dog
fight. Alain
Amazon’s $1.5 billion US air cargo hub is open for business
K. Korosec,
Aug. 11,
"Amazon's $1.5
billion air
cargo hub in
Northern
Kentucky
opened
Wednesday, the
latest effort
by the
e-commerce
giant to
connect a
network of 40
sites and
control all
aspects of
delivery as
demand for
speed and
convenience
accelerates.
The Amazon Air
Hub
operations,
located at the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, will be the center
of its U.S.
cargo network.
The hub opened
after more
than four
years of
planning and
construction.
Amazon said
the U.S. hub
will
eventually
operate a
dozen flights
per day and
process
millions of
packages every
week...." [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/amazons-1-5-billion-u-s-air-cargo-hub-is-open-for-business/) Hmmmm... Impressive. Alain
C’mon Man!(These folks didn’t get/read the memo)
Sunday Supplement
Half-Baked
Click-Bait
More On….
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
H. Poser’77, Sept 13, 2020. “Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines” . See slides, See video Hmmmm… Simply Brilliant. Alain
4thAnnual PrincetonSmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.
Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)
K. Pyle, April
18, "It's time
to hit the
start button,"
is [Fred Fishkin's](https://www.techstination.com/) succinct
way of
summarizing
the next steps
in the Smart
Driving Car
journey.
Fiskin, along
with the LA
Times' [Russ Mitchell](https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell?lang=en) co-produced
the final
session of
the [2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen: Part 2](https://orfe.princeton.edu/conferences/sdc/session/20210415).
This 16th and
final session
in this
multi-month
online
conference not
only provided
a s[ummary of the thought-provoking speakers](https://viodi.com/2021/04/18/making-driverless-happen-the-road-forward/),
but also
provided food
for thought on
a way forward
to bring
mobility to
"the Trentons
of the World."
Setting the
stage for this
final session,
Michael Sena
provided
highlights of
the Smart
Driving Car
journey that
started in
late December
2020. Safety,
high-quality,
and affordable
mobility,
particularly
for those who
do not have
many options,
was a common
theme to the
2021 Smart
Driving Car
Summit. As
Princeton
Professor
Kornhauser,
the conference
organizer put
it,....." [Read more](https://viodi.com/2021/04/18/making-driverless-happen-the-road-forward/) Hmmmm.... We had another
excellent
Session.
Thank you for
the summary,
Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle’s Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars
13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods
12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility
11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation
10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance
9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?
8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?
Michael Sena’s Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides
7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It
6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain
5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point
4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them
3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today
2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage
Kornhauser & He, April 2021“Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the “Trentons” of this World”
Orf467F20_FinalReport “Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System” Kornhauser & He, March 2021 “AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative”
###
Calendar of Upcoming
Events
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Fall 2021 Live in Person Tentaively: November 2 (evening) -> 4, 2021
On the More Technical Side http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
K. Lockean’s AV Research Group at U of Texas
and The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT
R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, “Recordings from the conference: Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: ([Cybersecurity](https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY)): [https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY](https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY)
Session 3: [(Automated Driving Systems](https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc)): [https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc](https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc)
Session 4: [(Communications for ADS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso)) : [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso) [Read more](https://www.itu.int/en/fnc/2021/Pages/default.aspx) Hmmmm...
Russ, thank
you for
sharing!
Alain
###
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 226, Zoom-Cast Episode 226 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
###
F. Fishkin, July 22, “The Wall Street Journal’s Tim Higgins has a new book arriving August 3rd titled POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. You can bet it’s a lively discussion with Tim on the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or listen.. https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-226-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 226, Zoom-Cast Episode 226 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
F. Fishkin, July 22, “The Wall Street Journal’s Tim Higgins has a new book arriving August 3rd titled POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. You can bet it’s a lively discussion with Tim on the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or listen.. https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-226-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 225, Zoom-Cast Episode 225 w/Kevin Biesty, Deputy Director for Policy @ Arizona DoT
F. Fishkin, July 22, “Chandler, Arizona is the one place where paying customers can take advantage of driverless robo-taxis (from Waymo) to get where they are going. How did that happen? What does the future hold? Kevin Biesty, Arizona’s Deputy Director for Policy at the Department of Transportation, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for an in depth discussion. Plus.. Ford, Argo, Lyft, Tesla, Mercedes & more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 224, Zoom-Cast Episode 224 w/Selika Josiah Talbot, Principal, Autonomous Vehicle Consulting
F. Fishkin, July 19, “Does there need to be a White House appointed autonomous and electric vehicle czar to open up new mobility possibilities for all? That’s the view of Selika Josiah Talbott..a government veteran who now heads Autonomous Vehicle Consulting and lectures at American University. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a deeper look at how the technology can be deployed to improve lives.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 223, Zoom-Cast Episode 223 w/Richard Mudge, Compass Transp. & Baruch Feigenbaum, Reason Foundation
F. Fishkin, July 15, “Can Tesla (and others) make automatic emergency braking work? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser continues his push and is joined by the Reason Foundation’s Baruch Feigenbaum and Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge along with co-host Fred Fishkin to explore this week’ss Transportation Research Board sessions. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 222, Zoom-Cast Episode 222
F. Fishkin, July 11, “Is it time for autopilot to not break the law? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser says yes. And if technology can save lives, prevent injuries and crashes…shouldn’t it? Plus Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, Waymo, VW and more on Episode 222 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221, Zoom-Cast Episode 221 w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox
F. Fishkin, July 1, “With Zoox…the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company’s vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220 w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times
F. Fishkin, July 1, “Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That’s a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill…who joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that…plus Tesla…autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 219, Zoom-Cast Episode 219 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, June 29 , “Why couldn’t a smart driving car prevent Alain’s crash with a deer? How important is exact location for highly automated driving? And NHTSA wants reports on all automated vehicle system crashes. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 218, Zoom-Cast Episode 218 w/Xinfeng Le, Waymo Product Manager
F. Fishkin, June 10 , “Have questions about Waymo’s partnership with JB Hunt to test autonomous trucks in Texas? So do we…and Waymo’s Product Manager, Xinfeng Le joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to provide answers. Plus.. Waymo raises 2 and a half billion dollars, MacKenzie Scott gives away billions, start-up Waabi comes out of stealth, Argo AI plans an IPO and more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 217, Zoom-Cast Episode 217 w/Christorpher Mims, Columnist, Wall Street Journal
F. Fishkin, June 7 , “Are self-driving cars still decades ahead? Wall Street Jopurnal columnist and author Christopher Mims joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the progress and roadblocks. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, the dramatic rise in road deaths during Covid and more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 216, Zoom-Cast Episode 216 w/Michael Sena, editor The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 28 , “The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming Into Focus. That’s on top in the June edition of The Dispatcher. From Sweden, publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus better batteries, May Mobility, Tesla and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 215, Zoom-Cast Episode 215 w/Cade Metz, Correspondent, NY Times & Ken Pyle, editor, Viodi.com
F. Fishkin, May 27 , “The Costly Pursuit of Self Driving Cars Continues On and On and On. That’s the headline of a NY Times story this week. The reporter, Cade Metz, also the author of a new book on artificial intelligence, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Ken Pyle of Viodi View..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 214, Zoom-Cast Episode 214
F. Fishkin, May 23 , “An interview with the chief engineer behind Ford’s F150 Lightning EV truck…Waymo shares rider stories and the AFL-CIO tells Congress autonomous vehicles should be required to have human operators. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213 w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America’s Future Energy
F. Fishkin, May 14 , “The autonomous mobility competition with China. What will it take to succeed? Securing America’s Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus the latest on #AutoX, #Tesla, #GM, #TuSimple and more. Remember to subscribe! And check out this SAFE panel discussion too. “..
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212 w/Ken Pyle
F. Fishkin, May 8 , “Where does Waymo go from here? Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles? Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211 w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 1 , “There’s plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense…and what doesn’t. Plus #Tesla,#Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. …”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210 w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron’23
F. Fishkin, April 26 , “Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from #Elon​ Musk’s The Boring Company. Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton’s Alain ..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209 w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.
F. Fishkin, April , “The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208 w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo
F. Fishkin, April 18, “What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo…some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207 w/Selika Josiah Talbott
F. Fishkin, April 10 , “When a driverless vehicle crashes…what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206 w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
F. Fishkin, April 2, “When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles? How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome? Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin…”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205 w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher. President, MLSena Consulting
F. Fishkin, March 26, “Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities. So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more…on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars…”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204 w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services
F. Fishkin, March 15, “.With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker’s new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table…and a look at the future of auto insurance..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203 AV 101: A. Kornhauser F. Fishkin, March 13, “.GM’s move to transform auto insurance through OnStar Insurance: Is it a win, win for all? Is adaptive cruise control prompting some drivers to speed? And what does Tesla really mean by “full self driving”? Just some of the questions tackled in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202, Zoom-Cast Episode 202 President & CEO, RoadDB
F. Fishkin, March 3, “When will we be able to purchase cars that can largely drive themselves? It may not be long…but don’t expect to vacate the driver’s seat. That’s the view of entrepreneur, tech pioneer and RoadDB CEO Russ Shields. He takes an in depth look at where we are and where we’re headed with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201, Zoom-Cast Episode 201 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Feb. 26, “Smarter cars need smarter assembly…and location matters. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at that, politics, climate and carmakers…plus Tesla, Velodyne, Foxconn and more..” SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200, Zoom-Cast Episode 200 w/Edwin Olsen, CEO, May Mobility F. Fishkin, Feb. 22, “How May Mobility is building confidence in autonomous transportation and creating a road map for growth through the pandemic and beyond. CEO and co-founder Edwin Olson joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.”
Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
###
August 6, 2021
DECISION AUTHORIZING DEPLOYMENT OF DRIVERED AND DRIVERLESS AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE PASSENGER SERVICE CPUC, Nov 23, ‘20, “This decision creates two new autonomous vehicle programs that authorize fare collection (deployment programs), one for drivered autonomous vehicles and the other for driverless autonomous vehicles. Among other requirements, applicants to the existing driverless pilot program and the new driverless deployment program must submit Passenger Safety Plans that outline their plans to protect passenger safety for driverless operations.
In addition,
the decision
establishes
four goals
that apply to
both the
existing pilot
programs and
the new
deployment
programs; 1.)
Protect
passenger
safety; 2.)
Expand the
benefits of AV
technologies
to all of
Californians,
including
people with
disabilities;
3.) Improve
transportation
options for
all,
particularly
for
disadvantaged
communities
and low-income
communities;
and 4.) Reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions,
criteria air
pollutants,
and toxic air
contaminants,
particularly
in
disadvantaged
communities.
The Commission
will collect
data to
monitor permit
holders’
progress
toward each of
the goals...."
[Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/fiwy5ou01zo6tp6/CA%20PU%20Autonomous%20Vehicle%20Deployment%20Decision.PDF?dl=0) Hmmmm...
Sorry for not
reporting this
sooner, and
thank you Doug
Coventry for
bringing it to
my attention.
It is must
reading
for any
jurisdiction
making
regulations
regarding the
provision of
autonomousTaxi
mobility.
Its four goals are laudable, especially the 3rd, even if it may end up violating part of the 4th. Moreover, the clauses of the 3rd should be re-ordered to be: … Improve transportation options for disadvantaged communities, low income communities and those with disabilities, and, if possible, for all… This also reduces the goals to 3 important ones, … safety, the environment and improved mobility for those that have been left behind by the personal automobile
Of course, one wants to improve mobility for those that drive their own personal car; however, that is a entrenched well-served set of customers that are not readily going to flip from driving their car to something that isn’t really better and may largely be perceived as no cigar. Certainly, the public sector should in no way use public resources to give car drivers yet another good but inferior choice as was done with many public transportation investments that actually provide inferior mobility to those that were to be attract as customers. These systems are rebuffed by many that they were intended to be taken off the road for the trips they already make, let alone deliver quality-of-life benefits by providing mobility to new places that they couldn’t previously access.
A properly designed Operational Design Domain focused on from and where low income communities want to go is, to my mind, where the best opportunity exits for these safe, environmentally responsible systems . In such ODDs these driverless aTaxis can actually improve quality-of-life; and thus, deserve accommodation and promotion by public agencies such as CPUC. Alain
July 30, 2021
Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Charged With Lying to Investors C. . Ramey, July 29, “Trevor Milton, the founder of Nikola Corp. and onetime executive chairman of the electric-truck startup, was indicted Thursday on securities-fraud charges for what prosecutors said was a scheme to mislead investors about the company’s product and technology development.
Mr. Milton
faces two
counts of
securities
fraud and one
count of wire
fraud,
according to
the
indictment.
The U.S.
attorney's
office in
Manhattan,
which brought
the charges,
is set to make
an
announcement
about the
indictment on
Thursday
morning.
A spokesman
for Mr. Milton
didn't
immediately
comment. Last
year, Mr.
Milton said on
Twitter that
he intended to
defend himself
against "false allegations". [He resigned from Nikola in Septembe](https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikola-chairman-steps-down-as-company-faces-probe-11600672351?mod=article_inline)r
as [concerns mounted about the startup darling](https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-probes-electric-truck-startup-nikola-over-claims-it-misled-investors-11600199462?mod=article_inline)that
had attracted
backing from
some of the
industry's
biggest names.
Nikola wasn't
charged. The
company said
that Mr.
Milton hasn't
been involved
in the
company's
operations or
communications
since his
resignation.
"Nikola has
cooperated
with the
government
throughout the
course of its
inquiry," the
company's
statement
said. "We
remain
committed to
our previously
announced
milestones and
timelines and
are focused on
delivering
Nikola Tre
battery-electric
trucks later
this year from
the company's
manufacturing facilities."Â..." [Read more](https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-charged-with-lying-to-investors-11627563648) Hmmmm... Speaks for itself. Alain
July 23, 2021
Upward Urban & Rural Mobility via Autonomous Mobility K. Pyle, July 19, “It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. The picture Selika Josiah Talbott chose for her virtual backdrop at the recent 2021 TRB Annual Automated Road Transportation Symposium sums up the mobility challenges that urban and rural locales face with existing infrastructure, particularly in low-income areas. Joining Talbott on this panel were experts opining on Talbott’s insightful comments about autonomous mobility and its potential to provide upward mobility….” Read more Hmmmm… Simply a must read. This is the real market for autonomousTaxis (aTaxis). Alain
July 17, 2021 [2021 TRB Annual Automated Road Transportation Symposium](http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/181880.aspx) July 12
-> 15,
"..." [Read more](http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/181880.aspx) Hmmmm...I haven't been able to
find a public
source for any
of the content
from the
symposium but
there were at
least three
sessions (of
the few that I
was able to
attend) that
were really
good. One
was [B-101- An inside Look at Policy-Making for Automated Vehicles](https://trb-arts.secure-platform.com/a/solicitations/73/sessiongallery/899),
moderated by
Baruch
Feigenbaum of
the Reason
Foundation.
Pay particular
attention to
the insights
offered by
Kevin Biesty
of Arizona
DoT. So far,
no one in the
world has done
it better.
A second one was B204-Inclusive by Design: Creating an Equitable and Accessible Automated Future, moderated by Charlotte Frei.
The third was Richard Mudge’s B402- Shark Tank: Everything from Free Freight to AV for Low-Income Travelers to how many AV Firms will Survive?. (Spoil alert… the answer is . Selika Talbot’s presentation was absolutely fantastic. See PodCast/ZoomCast below for a discussion of parts of this session. Fred and I hope to do PodCasts/ZoomCasts with Selika and Kevin in the coming week.
Hopefully TRB will broadly distribute the recorded videos of these and the other sessions. One caution is that even in this community there is substantial confusion introduced over terminology which ends up having people talk by rather than with each other. This was an “Automated Road Transportation” symposium. One aspect of road transportation is the fundamental role of the human driver. It is very different than that of elevators that go from A to B without any direct human driver/operator intervention. The customer only tells the elevator what floor to go to. Everything else in the up/down mobility process is automated within the elevator’s Operational Design Domain (which is usually in a shaft, stooping only at designated stopping locations (floors) with centimeter accuracy but only when when sufficient power exists to perform the various operations. (Note: “Level 5 elevators” (operate under any power-available condition) will “never” exist.). It is easy for us to see the phenomenal difference in the societal value that can be achieved in elevators that deliver safe, shared-ride, on-demand 24/7 mobility, indiscriminately to essentially everyone. Unfortunately, precious little of that broad societal value can be achieved unless the elevator’s safe operation can be achieved without a human operator/driver.
This is a bang-bang situation. Either you have it or you don’t. Coming close doesn’t cut it.
It doesn’t mean that human operated elevators don’t deliver value to individual owners. My neighbor across the street has a dumbwaiter in her house that she and her husband control manually to move things including themselves up and down in their house. Works great. Real value. They both remain capable of performing the manual operations for themselves and if they charge themselves for the labor, they gain that charge so the transaction nets to zero labor cost. charge themselves . While some benefits (comfort & convenience) might be gained by them by automating some of the operating functions, full automation would be silly unless at least some number of neighbors would improve their quality-of-life if only they could easily go up and down in their house. That latent demand for improved quality-of-life does exist in tall buildings. It’s been consumed in a large part because elevators became operatorless and not just operator assisted. Shared and not quite door2door shortcomings are endured. 24/7, on-demand, affordable (especially for the rent payer on the “14th” floor. So much so that they just pick up the tab for the elevators that deliver accessibility to/from the “14th floor”) are the fundamental mobility attributes that totally dominate the competition for mobility afforded by the stairwell. Without the elimination of the operator/driver, the 24/7, on-demand, affordable trifecta is not deliverable to anybody.
Way too often during the Symposium automation that explicitly requires the continued presence of a driver and is only at best a comfort & convenience feature as ascribed benefits that accrue only for systems that achieve safe driverless operation. There is no getting away from it, automation that assist drivers is radically different than automation that replaces drivers. Hopefully next year we can have 2 AV conferences. One that focuses on automation to assist human drivers and one that focuses on technology and deployments that replaces the driver.
As far as connectivity goes, we need to realize that it is a nice2have, not a need2have. Since it can only deliver value among pairs of adopters, it struggles getting started by itself when it needs to find a partner. Unfortunately, road vehicles have performed well for more than 100 years without much connectivity and automation at this point is saying: you aren’t much help and we can’t afford to carry you along. Alain July 11, 2021
Tesla Says Autopilot Makes Its Cars Safer. Crash Victims Say It Kills. Neal Boudette, July 5, “ Benjamin Maldonado and his teenage son were driving back from a soccer tournament on a California freeway in August 2019 when a truck in front of them slowed. Mr. Maldonado flicked his turn signal and moved right. Within seconds, his Ford Explorer pickup was hit by a Tesla Model 3 that was traveling about 60 miles per hour on Autopilot.
A six-second video captured by the Tesla and data it recorded show that neither Autopilot, Tesla’s much-vaunted system that can steer, brake and accelerate a car on its own, nor the driver slowed the vehicle until a fraction of a second before the crash…“ Read more Hmmmm… A few comments here: 1. Because of the suit here, hopefully more of the data associated with this crash will be made public. Future crashes such as these seem to be covered by the recent NHTSA standing General Order requiring the data to be released without need of lawyers, assuming Tesla cooperates. 2. Neal (slightly) overstate his plot which clearly shows the Tesla began to decelerate slightly more than a full second before impact. He also doesn’t mention what the video clearly shows that the Tesla was “cut-off” by the pickup truck. More over the pickup applied its brakes as it was making the lane change (brake light came on). This brake application may well have been the critical element that made the crash unavoidable. AutoPilot was likely tacking the pickup from at least the 6 seconds before collision point. Tesla must have data on the relative longitudinal speed between the pickup and the Tesla.and it must also have an expected time-to-collision which is a critical measure as to when to kick in the Automated Emergency Braking System. Once again, my main concern here is not (yet) about the performance of AutoPilot, but the performance of Tesla’s Automated Emergency Braking System (AEBS). This is a rear-end crash. It is the responsibility of the AEBS to avert these crashes. Seems as if the AEBS did NOT properly anticipate the pick-up’s maneuver nor properly monitor time-to-collision. My recommendation here is to improve the AEBS.
3. Comments implying that radar would have been better at identifying the ‘cut-off’ are questionable. Lane intrusion is only partial until about 3 seconds before impact. Radar does not return lateral relative-speed, only longitudinal relative-speed. Who knows what lag exists in determining lateral speed and the accuracy of that determination. I doubt that either are very good web based on radar. My guess is that image processing at better than 20Hz would do best in this clear situation.
4. Interpretation of the turn signal can only be done with image processing (to my knowledge.)
5. Nothing is reported about any horn actuation (or if autoPilot even uses the horn). The brake application by the pickup may have been an impulsive response to a horn blow by the Tesla.
6. There seems to be no indication by the driver of the pick-up that he saw the Tesla coming.
7. The Tesla data likely also has its closing speed on the panel truck and thus the closing speed of the pick-up to the panel truck. This information may help us to begin to understand the extent to which the pickup was tailgating the panel truck. 8. To me, AutoPilot’s main issue is: should it allow “passing on the right” when “passing on the right” is illegal. The reason it is illegal is because it leads to crashes like this one, that is an issue that should be taken up by NHTSA and NTSB. To what extent should any of these automated driving devices engage in “illegal” driving? My current view (subject to change) is: a. Up to 9 mph over is OK. b. Rolling through a stop sign is OK, if it is determined that time to any likely collision is greater than 5 seconds (meaning you must be able to “see” at least 5 seconds away at speed limit +9 (or something similar)
c. Cross double line as long as oncoming traffic has slowed to under 25 mph and has room to proceed by squeezing right (or something like that).
d. Pass on the right as long as all pertinent vehicles in the two lanes are moving at less than 25 mph (or something like that).
Alain
June 28, 2021 [How Important is Exact Localization for HAD?](https://www.dropbox.com/s/e8ql7q722zxqb13/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf?dl=0) M.
Sena,
July/Aug. '21,
"[In this issue of The Dispatcher for July and August](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf), I
have taken up
a subject in
the lead
article that
has been on my
list for quite
some time. It
is of how cars
that drive
themselves
keep
themselves on
the road while
they make
their journey
to their
destination.
It turns out
that there is
a very good
reason why
Teslas crash
and Waymo is
running around
only in
Chandler,
Arizona after
people who
didn't know
better
promised that
there would be
completely
driverless
cars on all
roads a decade
ago:
localization
of a moving
vehicle is
very, very
hard, even for
a human.
I encourage
you to read
Musings this
month. It's
about making
the journey to
a world
without
climate change
protests, a
world where
they either
won't be
necessary or
allowed. On
most journeys,
we have to
cross bridges.
Sometimes we
have to make
them
ourselves.
Think of the
article as the
first bridge
to cross
toward a
better
understanding
of the climate
change
journey.
Dispatch
Central
contains, as
usual,
something for
everyone.
Insurance is
addressed in
the two main
articles. In
Bits and
Pieces I have
added my
thoughts on
recent events.
This is a
double issue,
in part
because we are
going to try
to do more
this summer
than we could
do last. But
it's also
because I need
some extra
time to work
on a follow-up
to the
Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit with Professor Alain Kornhauser. There was a
concrete
proposal put
forward by
Professor
Kornhauser
during the
last session,
and many of us
who took part
in the Summit
have committed
to try to work
on
implementing
that
proposal. [Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/e8ql7q722zxqb13/The-Dispatcher_July-2021.pdf?dl=0) Hmmmm... . Once again an
outstanding The
Dispatcher.
I happen to
have a diffent
fundamental
view on"exact
localization" than Michael, many and possibly
even everyone
else... As
usual, I'll
take a very
self-centered
view... I've
lived my whole
life without
knowing (or
caring to
know) my
"exact
location".
I've been
satisfied to
know: "sort
of... where am
I?" but
exact...where
am I? ... not
so much.
What troubles
me about the
"exact where
am I" is that
this exactness
is in some
coordinate
system. Where
is the origin
of that
coordinate
system and is
moving? Oh,
it's the
"center" of
the earth??
Or some
"reference
point". So
"exact" is
actually,
"exact
relative to
some reference
point. Little
seems to ever
be said about
the
"exactness" of
the reference
point, but
that may
actually be
some saving
grace about
"exact".. it
is "exact"
relative to
some reference
point.
I see.. If the reference point is the center of the Universe, then I’d better be really-really precise; else, small small changes mean big-big differences. If the reference is the center of the earth, then I may just need to be really precise; else, small changes mean big differences. However, if the reference point is my nose and I’m trying to stay between two white lines and not hit anything, then the precision to which I need to know where things are may not need to be very precise as long as I have a little bit of leeway and still stay between the lines and leave enough room around the various objects to not hit them.
OK, safe driving requires only knowing where I am relative to objects around me to a moderate level of precision. I can do it in two ways… take the difference between two values: location of object and my location. The farther away the reference point, the more precise they will need to be if precision of the difference is to be maintained. Consequently, if the measurements are relative to my nose, the need for about as small as it can get.
Moreover, any precision data base lacks some “most” important values.. 1. a precise value for my location and 2. a precise value for anything around me that moves (meaning it wasn’t at its current location when the HD database was assembled). Required is the ability in real time to locate and track objects relative to me (my nose, the hood ornament of my car, ..) with only some precision These objects and their location aren’t included in these precise/HD databases. What is needed is a very reliable means of identifying objects and determining their position and velocity with little latency. This is absolutely necessary;uyr;y necessary for the moving objects, might as well do it also for the stationary objects. Alain
Please don’t suggest that one needs an HD map database in order to run their SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping) algorithm. That algorithm needs as input the relative position (sensor observations) of objects . The capability to determine those inputs is all that is needed to do collision avoidance, so don’t even bother going through the SLAM computation and certainly don’t pay for a reference data set.
May 29, 2021 [The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming into Focus](https://www.dropbox.com/s/bpeklrq3sgutu1l/The-Dispatcher_June-2021.pdf?dl=0) M.
Sena, June
2021,
"...Mobility-as-a-service
would provide
the business
model to tie
everything
together,
perhaps as an
extension of
your
phone/broadband
subscription.
Private car
ownership
would soon be
a relic of a
bygone age.
This is an interesting narrative, but is not a correct one. Even before COVID-19 changed how people have been living outside of China since Friday, the 13th of March 2020, the picture of everything happening in high density cities was a rumor that companies like WEWORK spread to build their houses of cards. …
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to
start thinking
outside the
bus. If a city
is serious
about
providing a
useful bus
service, it
needs to run
them
everywhere and
often,
including at
night. It
must,
therefore, get
rid of cars
driving and
parking on its
streets. ..
One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to
start thinking
outside the
bus. If a city
is serious
about
providing a
useful bus
service, it
needs to run
them
everywhere and
often,
including at
night. It
must,
therefore, get
rid of cars
driving and
parking on its
streets. ...
What cities
are doing
today all over
the world is
neither
providing an
adequate
service to
their citizens
nor using the
money
allocated for
transport in a
cost-effective
way...
Bite the bullet and get private cars off the big city streets
The reasons
that people
who live in
cities began
to buy cars
was that they
needed them to
get to their
jobs, the ones
that began
moving out of
the cities in
the campuses
where there
were no
transit links.
Then they
needed them to
drop off their
children to
day care
centers since
both parents
worked. Then
they needed
them to drop
off their
older
children...
As I said, it is not buses that will meet the need. Neither is it roads filled with taxis. There are taxis offering rides in Trenton and Scranton, but they are not replacing buses because they are too expensive and are often unavailable when demand for them is highest. The Uber/Lyft model can be better at meeting demand, but they are still too costly…”
Read more Hmmmm… Enjoy the whole issue. It is enormously well written! Also listen/watch the SDC Pod/Zoom Cast 216- below with Michael. Alain May 22, 2021
Why I Ride with Waymo: Mike Waymo One, May 13, “… I started taking it to work, and after crunching the numbers for gas, maintenance, insurance, upkeep, and owning a depreciating investment, it was pretty much a no-brainer that we really didn’t need two cars. I sold off my car and made Waymo my choice for commuting to and from work and for trips my wife and I need to take when the other is using our car…“ Read more Hmmmm…This is really great that he “crunched the numbers” and found it to be “pretty much a no-brainer”, which is what every real Waymo customer in Chandler has to do to become a Waymo customer. One “doesn’t move to Chandler unless one has “two cars”. See slide 5: 70% of the households have 2 or more cars in Chandler, so most of the folks have had to do the math to become a customer. If Waymo offered the same service in Trenton, where 70% of the households have at most one car and 30% don’t have any, then it doesn’t take much number crunching to appreciate Waymo when walking is the next best way to go.
The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working. It may well be the “easiest” ODD in the world. A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically. What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer. Alain
May 8, 2021 [Why hasn't Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here's is my theory](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/why-hasnt-waymo-expanded-its-driverless-service-heres-my-theory/)
T. Lee, May 7,
"Suburban
ride-hailing
is a lousy
business to be
in.
Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver’s seat.
And then...
nothing. Seven
months later,
Waymo has
neither
expanded the
footprint of
the Phoenix
service nor
has it
announced a
timeline for
launching in a
second city.
It's as if
Steve Jobs had
unveiled the
iPhone,
shipped a few
thousand
phones to an
Apple Store in
Phoenix, and
then didn't
ship any more
for months;
and wouldn't
explain why.
Last Friday,
two Waymo
employees [participated in an "ask me anything" thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/n031vq/you_voted_and_were_excited_to_chat_about_waymo/) on
the
SelfDrivingCars
subreddit, a
watering hole
for
self-driving
industry
insiders.
Questions
about
expansion
plans
dominated the
conversation.
"How are you
going to
scale?" one
redditor
asked. "What
are the
impediments to
service
expansion at
this time?"
The Waymonauts
responded with
maddening
generalities.
"We feel the
same urgency
to scale
quickly that
others do, but
a ton of work
goes into
doing it
safely," wrote
Waymo's Sam
Kansara." [Read more](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/why-hasnt-waymo-expanded-its-driverless-service-heres-my-theory/) Hmmmm... Not at all surprising. Can you imagine trying to be
better than
one's own Land
Rover or
Porsche in car
country. That
is a heavy
lift. Making
it heavier is
the focus on
today's most
entitled
yuppies.
That's as bad
as the
original focus
of driverless
cars on
1%ers. Waymos
are pure and
simple
mobility
machines to
get you
from/to places
horizontally,
just as
elevators do
vertically ...
just get you
up to the "8th
floor". Why
are elevators
so successful
at what they
do?... Second
best is the
stairwell!
They win all
the time,
hands down.
In Chandler, the “stairwell” is your car parked in your garage. You don’t even have to go outside in all that heat. Waymo’s got to be really good to beat that! Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances “slim-to-none”. Not that the car in the garage doesn’t have an enormous amount of “excess baggage”. Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it. When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car. Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live. That’s a challenging market place for Waymo. It’s worse than Bing v Google
A better place for Waymo ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service. The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car. Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don’t have access to one. Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach “the eighth floor”; which, once they can using Waymo, would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.
Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that’s arguably the last place for Waymo to go. However, the census identifies many communities and “inner suburbs” that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household. For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice. Numerous Trenton residents would readily perceive Waymo as the “Google” in their trip mode-choice.
Another note… trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool’s gambit. Since Waymos don’t misbehave, it is “easy” to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about. Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton
Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
609-980-1427 (c)
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