Staff,
Oct. 2020 "On
this page you
will find the
gradings of
cars tested by
Euro NCAP on
automated
driving
technologies.
For its 2020
assessment of
Highway Assist
systems, Euro
NCAP has
developed
dedicated test
and assessment
protocols,
divided into
two main
areas:
Assistance
Competence,
based on the
balance
between Driver
Engagement and
Vehicle
Assistance,
and Safety
Backup...." Read
more Hmmmm....Look carefully at each
component of
the rating
system. NCAP
has chosen one
algorithmic
way of "adding
apples and
oranges" to
get their
rating.
Unfortunately
they don't
divulge the
secret
formula. To
me, it doesn't
seem to be
sufficiently
iweighted on
what I
consider to be
the most
important
element...
"Collision
Avoidance".
If the system
doesn't do
that well,
then why
bother being
good at
Consumer
Information
(unless that
information
says clearly
that the
system doesn't
work well".
If NCAP itself did a good job of
Consumer
Information
then it would
divulge its
algorithm and
allow the
consumer to
edit its
weights to
trade-off what
the consumer
believes is
more or less
important.
Video version of SmartDrivingCars PodCast 177... Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
L. Kolodny,
Oct 3, "A
European
vehicle safety
authority gave
“very good”
marks to Audi,
BMW and
Mercedes for
their driver
assistance
systems, and
gave Tesla’s
system, known
as Autopilot,
a “moderate”
grade in a new
report out
Thursday.
The ratings
from the
European New
Car Assessment
Programme
(Euro NCAP) —
a counterpart
to the U.S.
National
Highway
Traffic Safety
Administration. The ratings can influence consumer car-buying decisions
and insurance
premiums for
different make
and model
vehicles.
In general,
vehicle safety
ratings from
the likes of
NHTSA and Euro
NCAP show how
well a car is
designed to
protect the
driver,
passengers and
pedestrians in
a crash...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... See my comments above.
More
importantly,
it is a real
shame that,
except for
Teslas, it is
virtually
impossible to
find a car on
the road where
the driver is
using these
driver
assistance
capabilities.
Some companies
like Subaru
have them as
standard
equipment but
this equipment
is not
highlighted in
the sales
process. Cup
holders,
stereo systems
and "soft
Corinthian
Leather" are
touted. No
wonder no one
uses them.
E.
Lawrence, Oct
2, "Driverless
taxis are now
available to
the public in
China’s
biggest city.
A firm AutoX,
backed by the
online tech
and retail
giant Alibaba,
has started
offering a
free taxi
service –
using a fleet
of autonomous
driving cars –
in a small
area of
Shanghai. It’s
one of
numerous
trials, of
various
vehicles,
across the
world. Robin
Brant took a
ride. Watch
Video Hmmmm....Hmmmm, indeed. Alain
A.
Satarino, Sept
28, "Uber
scored an
important
victory on
Monday when a
judge restored
the company’s
transportation
license in
London, one of
its most
important
global
markets, where
regulators had
threatened to
ban its cars
from the road
over safety
concerns.
A deputy chief
magistrate,
Tan Ikram,
said Uber had
met a “fit and
proper”
standard to
receive a
license for 18
months. Mr.
Ikram said
Uber had taken
the necessary
steps to
address
regulators’
concerns,
including new
safety
measures to
keep
unauthorized
and uninsured
drivers from
using its
platform to
carry
passengers....."
Read
more Hmmmm.... This is a big win for
Uber. Maybe
it is better
to Lawyer-up
and "Just Do
It" . They
would have
never gotten
permission.
Alain
A. Palmer, Oct. 1, "Amazon on Thursday released comprehensive data on the spread of the coronavirus among its employees, disclosing for the first time that more than 19,000 workers, or 1.44% of the total, contracted the virus this year....
Amazon said the rate of infection among employees was 42% lower than expected, compared with the “general population rate” in the U.S. If Amazon’s infection rates were in line with the community, the total number of cases would have reached 33,952, the company said. ...
Thousands
of tests are
being
conducted
daily, Amazon
said, and it
expects that
to grow to
50,000 tests a
day across 650
facilities by
November.
CNBC
previously
reported
Amazon’s goal
is to test the
bulk of its
front-line
workers every
two weeks,
with employees
testing
themselves
with nasal
swabs. The
company
previously
said it would
invest its
expected Q2
profit of $4
billion into
its Covid-19
response and
will spend $1
billion on
testing
throughout the
year.
Amazon has
built a
dedicated team
of research
scientists,
program
managers,
procurement
specialists
and software
engineers in
order to
quickly scale
up its testing
capabilities,
it said. It
has built its
own lab to
develop
coronavirus
testing
capacity, with
teams focused
on these
efforts in
Sunnyvale,
California,
and Hebron,
Kentucky." Read
more Hmmmm....Very impressive! Alain
T. Tully,
Oct 1,
"Motorists in
New Jersey
began reaching
deeper into
their wallets
on Thursday to
fill their gas
tanks as the
state’s fuel
tax rose by
more than 9
cents a gallon
to the
nation’s
fourth-highest
rate — a spike
linked to a
steep decline
in traffic
during the
pandemic.
Drivers in New
Jersey
purchased
nearly 40
percent less
gas between
March and May
as businesses
and schools
closed and
more people
began working
from home.
That led to a
drop in tax
revenue that
chewed into
funds the
state was
required by
law to set
aside to pay
for
improvements
to rails,
roads and
bridges and,
in turn,
mandated a
9.3-cent tax
increase,
state
officials say.
The new rate
took effect on
Thursday. ...
" Read more
Hmmmm.... We like paying higher
taxes in New
Jersey. We'd
better,
because we
have no other
choice (except
to buy an EV).
Alain
N.
Scheiber, Sept
29, "The
Seattle City
Council
approved a
minimum pay
standard for
Uber and Lyft
drivers on
Tuesday,
becoming the
second city in
the country to
do so.
Under the law,
effective in
January,
ride-hailing
companies must
pay a sum
roughly
equivalent,
after
expenses, to
the city’s $16
minimum hourly
wage for
businesses
with more than
500 employees.
“The pandemic
has exposed
the fault
lines in our
systems of
worker
protections,
leaving many
frontline
workers like
gig workers
without a
safety net,”
Mayor Jenny
Durkan said in
a statement.
Seattle’s law,
passed in a
9-to-0 vote,
is part of a
wave of
attempts by
cities and
states to
regulate
gig-economy
transportation
services.
....." Read
more Hmmmm.... There goes
affordability.
The rich will
be able to
benefit from
on-demand
chauffeuring,
the poor will
need to wait
for
Driverless.
An elevator
operator still
exists
(existed) in
Tiffany's on
5th Avenue.
In a Bronx
tenement it
needs to be
automated;
else, the
steps. Alain
J. Ewing,
Sept 29, "On
Wednesday,
prosecutors in
Munich will
begin
presenting
evidence the
first trial in
Germany
stemming from
Volkswagen’s
emissions-cheating
scandal, in
which the
company was
caught using
illegal
software to
conceal the
fact that its
“clean
diesels” were
actually
rolling
pollution
machines.
On trial is
Rupert
Stadler, the
former chief
executive of
Volkswagen’s
Audi luxury
car division,
who belonged
to the top
echelon of its
leadership.
The case will
test whether
prosecutors
can overcome
the
difficulties
inherent in
trying to
convict top
managers
protected by
layers of
underlings.
That is a
problem that
has also
frustrated
investigators
in the United
States when
prosecuting
corporate
crime.
Mr. Stadler
faces charges
of fraud and
false
advertising
stemming from
accusations
that Audi
continued to
sell diesel
cars with
illegal
software even
after United
States
authorities
uncovered the
cheating in
2015.
Read more Hmmmm.... Lying, cheating and stealing is no way to run any company, especially one that going to have AI Black Boxes driving their cars. Alain
T. Lee,
Sept 30, "When
Nikola and GM
announced a
partnership on
September 8, GM
said it
expected the
deal to close
by September
30. Now
September 30
has arrived,
and the deal
hasn't closed.
Media reports
indicate
that the deal
is unlikely to
close today.
A GM spokesman
confirmed the
delay in an
email to Ars.
"Our
transaction
with Nikola
has not
closed. We are
continuing our
discussions
with Nikola
and will
provide
further
updates when
appropriate."
..."
Read more Hmmmm.... Whew! Alain
Staff,
Sept. 17, "A
recent video
of Elon Musk
taking a spin
in a new
all-electric
Volkswagen
with Herbert
Diess, the
German
carmaker’s
boss, set
tongues
wagging. vw
was forced to
deny that a
deal with
Tesla was in
the offing. A
deeper
bromance
between Mr
Musk’s firm
and his main
rival in the
market for
electric
vehicles (evs)
looks
unlikely. But
the meeting
highlights how
the car
industry is at
last taking
the impending
ev revolution
seriously.
Giant new
businesses are
gearing up to
support the
switch from
petrol to
electricity.
Besides
changing the
way cars are
propelled,
this requires
batteries,
software to
ensure these
work in
harmony with
motors, and
data harvested
from cars that
may one day
allow them to
drive
themselves.
Over 250 firms
are
manufacturing
electric
motors.
Forty-seven
battery
factories are
under
construction.
Anjan Kumar of
Frost &
Sullivan, a
consultancy,
expects total
new ev-battery
capacity to go
from 88
gigawatt-hours
in 2019,
enough to
power Texas
for less than
two hours if
plugged into
the grid, to
1,400
gigawatt-hours
in 2025.
Established
carmakers are
pondering how
to loosen the
grip of big
tech on
software. ..."
Read
more Hmmmm.... The best way to "see"
the
implication of
a major shift
to EVs is to
ponder Lawrence
Livermore's
Energy Flow
Charts.
Energy is one
of those
wonderful
entities that
is
conserved...
If you need
need some
amount, you
have to
produce
exactly that
amount. When
I look at the
chart
for the US in
2019, I
clearly see
that the
energy needed
to power the
transportation
sector of our
economy was
about 28%
(28.2/100.2)
of all energy
produced (most
of which cames
from
petroleum).
Considering all the various
sources
(solar,
nuclear, ...)
electricity
produced only
13%
(12.7/100.2)
of the energy
consumed by
all sectors,
essentially
none of which
(0.03%) was
used to power
transportation
(subways,
Amtrak, LIRR,
..., and a
very few
electric
cars.) and
essentially
none of which
(0.19%) came
from
petroleum.
Consequently, the electric generation
system need to
triple in size
for it to
completely
power the
transportation
sector.
Since of
which 82%
is used by the
highway sector
is "only"
consumes about
82% of
the
transportation's
sector thirst
for energy,
one needs to
be prepared to
double our
electricity
generation
potential to
support a 50%
conversion to
EVs.
If we now look at where that energy can come from, that's when things get scary. To get to 10% EV penetration one would need to grow today's total solar by 10x. Or today's Wind by 4x, and put aside any demisgshing of Nuclear, gas or coal production. . Yipes! We have a lot of work ahead of us. Alain
Russ
Mitchell, Oct
2, "Tesla said
it delivered a
record 139,300
cars in the
third quarter.
For Tesla
investors,
that’s the
good news. The
bad news is
that the
company finds
itself saddled
with factory
overcapacity.
The delivery
numbers top
the previous
record by 24%.
That record
had been set
last December,
when 112,000
deliveries
were reported,
with all cars
made at
Tesla’s only
factory at the
time, in
Fremont,
Calif.
Then it opened
a plant in
Shanghai,
dramatically
increasing
capacity.
But sales in
China have
been flat all
year, and
sales in
Europe are
down. Given
that the
Shanghai plant
increased
Tesla’s annual
production
capacity by
40%, “selling
another 27,000
cars isn’t
stellar,” said
Matthias
Schmidt,
publisher of
the European
Electric Car
Report in
Berlin.
Tesla’s total
annual
capacity now
is 690,000,
yet analysts
say it will
sell well
under 500,000
cars this
year.
To hit the
half-million
mark, which
Musk has
identified as
his deliveries
target, Tesla
must now
deliver
180,000 cars
in the
upcoming
fourth
quarter.
That might not
be an issue if
growth were
faster or the
stock price
were lower.
But with a
tiny fraction
of worldwide
sales, the
stock market
pegs Tesla as
the world’s
most valuable
car company.
Its market
value of about
$400 billion
is bigger than
Toyota, Ford,
General
Motors, Fiat
Chrysler,
Volkswagen and
Honda —
combined. The
company is
under
tremendous
pressure to
show how it
can grow into
those
expectations...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Yup! Alain
These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information…head to www.motoetf.com
F. Fishkin,
Aug 20, "Tesla
grows while
other
automakers
flounder. And
creating
standards in
an era of
mistrust. The
Dispatcher
publisher
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin in a
thought
provoking
episode.
Plus...transportation
planning
during and
after the
pandemic...NVIDIA...and
more."
F. Fishkin Aug 13, "Ghost Road.. Beyond the Driverless Car author Anthony Townsend brings a unique viewpoint to the debate on the future of mobility...and the impact of the pandemic on ride sharing. Townsend joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and the latest developments from Uber, Lyft, Tesla and more."
F. Fishkin
Aug 8, "Is
Tesla a tech
stock? Or a
fashion
product? Maniv
Mobility's
Olaf Sakkers
authored a
piece on
Medium with
that title and
he joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin
for that
plus... GM's
would be Tesla
challenger
Cadillac
Lyriq,
TuSimple,
Uber, Ford and
more."
F.
Fishkin July
29, "In the
midst of a
pandemic, what
is the future
of ride
sharing and
mobility?
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin are
joined by
Robin Chase
and Carlos
Pardo of the
New Urban
Mobility
Alliance and
the director
of the
Institute for
Transportation
Studies at U C
Davis, Daniel
Sperling to
dig into the
challenges
ahead."
F. Fishkin, July 20, "Is Driverless home delivery the fastest route to Affordable Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged? ... "
F. Fishkin, July 2, "Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. ." ... Alain
F. Fishkin,
June 2, "But
the debate is
not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
Video version... Watch our first attempt.... Alain
K. Laing,
Aug 28, "Uber
Technologies
Inc. vowed to
make public
more safety
information
regarding its
self-driving
cars after the
National
Transportation
Safety Board
placed partial
blame for a
fatal 2018
crash on the
company’s
policies.
The company
made the
pledge in an
update to its
voluntary
safety
assessment,
filed Aug. 28
with the
National
Highway
Traffic Safety
Administration. It marked the first major attempt by Uber to allay
criticism of
its autonomous
driving
program since
the NTSB board
reached its
conclusions
regarding a
Tempe, Ariz.,
crash in 2018
believed to be
the first
fatal
pedestrian
accident
involving a
self-driving
vehicle.
“We support
the idea of
transparency
and making the
public
understand
what we do,”
Nat Beuse,
head of safety
at Uber’s
Advanced
Technologies
Group, said in
an interview.
The new filing
is a “complete
update” from
Uber’s initial
offering to
regulators in
2018, he said.
In the
document, Uber
touts
“enhancements,”
including the
public release
of a “Safety
Case
Framework”
that it
pledges to
make
open-sourced
for peer
review. The
company also
details new
internal
safety
management
procedures and
the
establishment
of an
independent
Safety and
Responsibility
Advisory
Board...." Read
more Hmmmm....This is really good news
coming out of
Uber. Thank
you Nat!!
Alain
M. Sena, Sept, 2020, "Will ITS standards work fall prey to geopolitical conflicts and meddling? How many exclusive partners can Waymo manage? Will Geely Auto and Volvo Cars merge or not? Is the StarLink satellite broadband initiative going to be another win for Elon Musk? What effects are COVID-19 having on the car industry? We are not out of the woods yet with this current plague, and governments seem to be taking very different tacks as they navigate their boats through these troubled waters. ...." Read more Hmmmm.... Another Excellent Dispatcher. Be sure to listen/watch Corresponding PodCast 170 w/Michael Sena. Alain
A.
Hawkins, Aug.
11, "Hyundai’s
autonomous
vehicle joint
venture with
Aptiv has a
new name:
Motional. The
company, which
plans to test
fully
driverless
vehicles for
ride-hailing
services later
this year,
said the new
name is meant
to evoke the
“motion” of
transportation
as well as the
“emotion” of
the decision
to get
somewhere
safely.
The joint
venture was
first
announced in
March 2020,
when Hyundai
said it would
spend $1.6
billion to
catch up to
its rivals in
the autonomous
vehicle space.
Aptiv, a
self-driving
technology
company that
is an offshoot
of global auto
parts supplier
Delphi, owns
50 percent of
the venture.
Karl Iagnemma,
the former CEO
of
self-driving
startup
NuTonomy that
was acquired
by Delphi in
2017, is now
president and
CEO of
Motional. In
an interview,
he said the
company’s
fleet of
vehicles that
are operating
in Las Vegas,
Singapore, and
Seoul will
soon be
rebranded with
the “Motional”
brand.
“Whether we
like it or not
these days
transportation
decisions are
emotional
decisions,”
Iagnemma said.
“Choosing how
to get from A
to B safely,
that’s an
emotional
decision. So
Motional will
keep that
insight
central to
every product
we
develop.”..."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Notional should start
testing in
Trenton's
Operational
Design Domain
where there
exists real
need for
affordable
high-quality
mobility
between many
As and Bs at
any time
serving
anyone.
Alain
A.
Efrati, July
22, "In just
five years,
TuSimple has
become the
biggest and
most visible
developer of
self-driving
trucks,
raising more
cash and
putting more
robotic big
rigs on the
road than any
rival.
High-profile
customers
including UPS
have
contracted to
let TuSimple
haul their
cargo on the
highway.
Executives
have forecast
heady revenue
and predicted
that fully
automated,
driverless
trucks are in
sight.
Instead,
TuSimple has
fallen short
of
expectations,
hampered by
the same
technological
challenges
that have
afflicted
other
developers of
self-driving
vehicles. It
had predicted
several
hundred
million
dollars of
revenue by
this year, but
instead
acknowledges
revenue is
minimal,
according to
the company’s
financial
projections
reviewed by
The
Information.
And it has
fallen short
of its
timeline for
removing human
backup
drivers,
repeatedly..,"
Read
more
Hmmm....
I simply don't
understand why
they have to
be focusing on
Driverless
right from the
beginning.
There is
substantial
RoI for
Safe-driving
Trucks...
reduced
expected
liability
(~$10/truck/year);
improved
comfort,
quality of
work place,
reduced
anxiety, ...
of drivers
yielding
improved
driver
recruiting and
retention;
improved
on-time
deliveries;
... continue
to yield very
attractive
RoIs for just
for
Safe-driving
truck
technology,
aka "Level
1/2". Why
isn't tuSimple
starting with
this
technology to
build its
advanced
distribution
network????
Alain
Press
release, July
28, "For more
than 50 years,
CES® has been
the global
stage for
innovation.
And the
all-digital
CES 2021 will
continue to be
a platform to
launch
products,
engage with
global brands
and define the
future of the
tech industry.
An all-digital
CES 2021 will
allow the
entire tech
community to
safely share
ideas and
introduce the
products that
will shape our
future. You’ll
be able to
participate in
all the
awe-inspiring
moments of CES
wherever you
are in the
world. We are
designing a
unique
experience for
the tech
industry...."
Read
more Hmmm....
Wow! Thank
you CES this
is exceedingly
responsible of
you. Hope to
be back in Las
Vegas in
2022. Fred
and I will
help however
we can to make
2021 very
successful.
Alain
M. Sena, August 2020, "Are we ready to be online carscribers? Online new car sales and car subscription programs, now being pursued simultaneously by car OEMs, will either lead the OEMs to endless highways paved with gold or two large dead ends. Each of these approaches to putting customers behind the wheel of a car are aimed at different pain points—real or perceived—in the purchase process. With online sales, the customer is in theory spared the visit to car dealers except. Car subscription programs go one step further. The customer is also decoupled from the dealer and in addition is, in theory, shielded from having to care about most of the responsibilities related to car ownership. Who benefits, who thinks they benefit and who loses, either in the short term or in the long term. Continue reading
Dispatch Central: Battery
Electric
Vehicle News
Continue
reading
Musings of a Dispatcher: The Way Forward: We Continue to Wander in the Desert Continue reading
Postscript on the China Series: In The disciples of liberal democracy can be forgiven for believing that China would become one of them if it was invited into the World Trade Organization. It was their belief—hope—that more trade with liberal democracies would would make China a libral democracy that drove the decision to open up to China. Although Continue reading..." Read more Hmmm.... Listen to PodCast 165 or watch ZoomCast 165. AlainR. Dale Hall, June 12, "...By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines...." Read more Hmmm... Excellent! An enormous amount here. See especially FIg 11 and 17. These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, ... An enormous amount to digest here. Excellent. Alain
M.
Sena, May 26,
"Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
has three
facets. Two of
them are
mainly of
interest to
vehicle OEMs
and their
suppliers.
They are
vehicle-centric
and
customer-centric.
Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency
notification,
logistics
tracking and
over-the-air
updating.
Customer
centric
connectivity
includes many
services that
are also
provided by
mobile apps
outside of the
vehicle, such
as music
streaming,
workshop
service
booking,
traffic
notifications
and car
sharing
applications.
Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
today is a
major
competitive
factor for the
OEMs.
The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it....
Lance
Eliot, April
28, "Several
self-driving
car luminaries
assembled
online via a
Zoom-casted
battleground
this week to
undertake a
Lincoln-Douglas
style debate
about the
future of the
Autonomous
Vehicle (AV)
self-driving
car industry
and the advent
of AI-driven
mobility.
Originally
scheduled for
one hour, the
dialogue and
fielding of
audience
questions
prompted the
superstars to
keep going,
tackling many
of the most
vexing and
unsolved
matters that
underlie the
potential
success of
self-driving
vehicles,
encompassing
both
autonomous
cars and
autonomous
trucks.
The lively
discussion was
civil and
polite,
fortunately so
in these times
of seemingly
stark
polarization
and guttural
attacks during
our
contemporary
public
discourse.
Yet, even in
the realm of
eloquent
argumentation,
at times the
gloves came
off and there
were some
fierce zingers
and moments of
rather
piercing
cut-the-air-with-a-knife
verbal
sparring..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for
the kind and
thorough
synopsis of
our 1st
Zoom-inar. We
were all
pleased by the
turnout,
interaction
and substance.
Alain
V.
Bajaj, April
22,"A main
benchmark for
the price of
oil fell
negative for
the first time
ever this
week. The
decline —
more than 300
percent in
daily trading
— raised fresh
questions
about the
damage the
coronavirus is
having on the
global
economy.
What does it
mean for oil
prices to be
negative?
A benchmark
price for a
barrel of oil
to be
delivered next
month fell to
-$37.63 on
Monday, which
means that
sellers would
have to pay
someone that
much to take
it off their
hands.
But that
historic
plunge was
exacerbated by
a quirk in how
the oil
markets work.
The negative
price
concerned only
contracts for
delivery of
barrels in May
that are
traded on
so-called
futures
markets. At
the same time
trading
happens for
May
deliveries,
people trade
on contracts
ending in
June, in July
and so on." Read
more Hmmmm... What??? I realize that
I'm often "out
of it",
but... In all
my life I have
NEVER...
thought of,
let alone
mentioned, nor
have heard
anyone else
mention the
concept of negative
oil!
Often, talked
about $150/B
oil, $250/B,
S20/B even
$7/B oil.
NEVER $0/B
oil,
negative
Oil...
NEVER,NEVER,
NEVER!!!! and
look where we
are. UNBELIEVABLE!!!
Implications:...
no one's
models
extrapolate to
that regime.
(it requires
extrapolation
because no
data exists in
this
unimaginable
region.
Listen to Pod-Cast;
Watch Zoom-Cast
Alain
R. Bishop,
Mar 24, "I met
Stefan
Seltz-Axmacher
for the first
time in
November 2015
at the Florida
Automated
Vehicles
Summit. Not
long after, we
met at the
Blue Danube
coffee shop in
Alameda, CA so
he could tell
me about his
vision for
Starsky
Robotics. When
he
energetically
described his
remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. “Remote driving is
hard,” I said.
“The military
has struggled
with this for
years. Its
harder than it
looks.” On the
technical
side, latency
for secure
communications
is
challenging.
On the
operational
side,
re-creating
enough on-road
reality
(situational
awareness) for
a remote
driver is
difficult when
going for the
high levels of
safety needed.
Seltz-Axmacher
remained
bullish on the
approach and
at that time
went on to
found Starsky
Robotics as
one of the
earliest truck
AV startups,
later closing
a $16.5M
Series A
funding round
in March 2018,
and then
hauling
freight while
developing
both remote
and automated
driving
ability.
Initially,
Starsky’s
concept was
all about
remote driving
for first/last
mile. They
later expanded
their offering
to include
fully
automated
highway
driving on
limited
freight
corridors.
Now, Starsky
has become the
first casualty
within a
crowded truck
automation
space, and
Seltz-Axmacher
has provided
us with an
intriguing
post-mortem in
a recent
Medium post.
Most of the
media coverage
I’ve seen has
acted as echo
chambers for
Seltz-Axmacher’s
perspective.
Here I offer a
counterpoint
based on my
longtime
involvement in
truck
automation
plus
discussions
with many
others in the
truck
Automated
Driving
Systems (ADS)
startup space,
many of them
irate at what
they see as
unfounded
assertions
made in the
original post.
My sources
tell me that
because
Seltz-Axmacher
hasn't
experienced
their
technology nor
been briefed
on their
technical/safety
approach, he
has no basis
to make
sweeping
claims about
the entire
industry...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Listen
to PodCast 148.
or/and Watch
us on YouTube.
Alain
K. Korosec,
Mar. 17,
"Waymo said
Tuesday it is
pausing
operations of
Waymo One, a
service in the
Phoenix area
that allows
the public to
hail rides in
self-driving
vehicles with
trained human
safety
operators
behind the
wheel, in
response to
the COVID-19
pandemic.
Waymo is also
halting
testing on
public roads
in California.
However, Waymo
will keep some
operations up
and running,
notably its
truly
driverless
vehicles,
which don’t
require a
human safety
driver,
according to
an
announcement
on its website
Tuesday. These
driverless
vehicles are
used in the
Phoenix area
as part of
Waymo’s early
rider program
that lets
vetted members
of the public
hail a
ride..." Read
more Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the
latest is not
so good... Waymo has suspended all services, including
the
driverless.
Poopie!!!
Alain
Kyle
Vogt, Jan 17,
"In a few
weeks the
California DMV
will release
disengagements
data from
Cruise and
other
companies who
test AVs on
public roads.
This data is
really great
for giving the
public a sense
of what’s
happening on
the roads.
Unfortunately,
it has also
been used by
the media and
others to
compare
technology
from different
AV companies
or as a proxy
for commercial
readiness.
Since it’s the
only publicly
available
metric, I
don’t really
blame them for
using it. But
it’s woefully
inadequate for
most uses
beyond those
of the DMV.
The idea that
disengagements
give a
meaningful
signal about
whether an AV
is ready for
commercial
deployment is
a myth. ..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Amen! This is a MUST
read. As with
everything, details
matter. It is
true that
figures don't
lie, but but
it is easy to
game systems
such that
figures,
without the
underlying
details, do
lie. As Kyle
points out,
there are
important
details
associated
with
disengagements.
These need to
be well
understood for
disengagements
to be a proxy
for safety and
market
readiness. The
when, where
and associated
details of
each
disengagement
is critically
important if
the objective
is safety and
market
readiness.
What is also most important here
is the
underlying
objective of
the companies
doing the
tests and
reporting the
data. As has
happened in
our secondary
education
where students
are taught
what is in and
how to take
the SATs
rather than
just learn.
The objective
is not
learning , but
getting 800s
on the SATs so
that they can
get into
'Princeton'.
This is
perpetuated by
the
'Princetons'
of this world
that don't
look into the
details of the
student's
academic
qualities and
capabilities.
In the
academic
world, we know
these students
as 'box
checkers',
gamers of the
college
admission
process. The
gaming is
continued by
the 'banks and
med schools'
that use
simplistic GPA
(Grade Point
Average, aka
'disengagements')
cutoffs. The
'box checkers'
then take
'underwater
basket
weaving'
courses and
become grade
grubbers. It
is lazy and
irresponsible
to use
simplistic
measures as
proxies to
very complex
concepts such
as
intelligence,
creativity,
compatibility,
and all the
other details
that make a
good student,
a good
employee, a
good citizen,
a good
mobility
system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig". It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? AlainA. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSight is standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="79" height="131">
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
R.
Wile, Nov 22,
"Sen. Jeff
Brandes (R-St.
Petersburg)
had just
finished
serving in the
Army, and was
looking to
make a name
for himself in
Tallahassee as
a junior
representative.
He came across
a talk given
by the founder
of Google’s
driverless car
project.
He quickly
realized the
potential of
self-driving
cars to
transform many
aspects of
daily life.
Ever since, he
has made it
his mission to
turn Florida
into what he
calls “an
angel
investor” in
automation
policy. “We
want to have
policies in
place for this
technology to
flourish,”
Brandes said
in an
interview at
the 7th Annual
Florida
Automated
Vehicles
conference in
Miami, which
concluded
Friday.
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
May
24, "About
9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As
the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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and hosted by
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